Mousebumples has posted this a few times in the comments today, but this is most definitely front-page worthy. If you want to share it with people, maybe a front-page post is easier to share than just a comment. Plus, all the links are active! :-) No 7-link limit on the front page.
https://bsky.app/profile/stephenwebb.bsky.social/post/3kw6otp7opm2x
i’m getting so, so tired of the doomerism on here, and the press loves covering shit like a horse race instead of explaining fundamentals and what’s at play, a job that seems to fall to @golikehellmachine.com on here.
so here’s a thread about why i’d rather be biden — yes, biden — right now
2/
the baseline for this election is 2020. normally “the last election” might not be a perfect baseline, but it’s the same guys with the roles reversed. both are quasi-incumbents, and we have a four year record for the both of them, with some recency bias for biden.
here’s that map {inserted map of 2020 electoral college results}
3/ now, for trump to win, he has to do three things:
1) hold nc
2) flip georgia and arizona
3) make headway in wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania
for biden to win, he has to hold wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania.
4/ holding nc:
trump won nc in 2020 by 1.5 points, the closest red state of 2020. in 2020 dem roy cooper won the governor’s race by 4.5 pts, meaning a lot of trump/cooper split tickets.
for this round, the nc gop nominated a literal nazi as their gubernatorial candidate. not ideal!
5/ holding nc means campaigning next to this guy.
again, not good! not good, at all!
6/ next order of business is flipping arizona and georgia. i think both of these states were at least modest surprises to everyone in 2020, and on paper should be the most tenuous biden holds. trump should be able to flip them back, right?
well, it’s still an uphill battle.
7/ for arizona, we have multiple state-wide races to look at from 2022 to establish a baseline. katie hobbs beat kari lake by about 10k votes for the governorship. adrian fontes beat the far-more-trumpy mark finchem in sos by ~5 pts. trumpy blake masters lost by same margin to incumbent kelly.
8/ so arizona, in 2022, given a slate of very trumpy candidates, rejected all of them. the most likeable (least serial killer like), kari lake, is running for senate again.
the az gop is bankrupt, and fake elector trials will start some time before the election, and will be big local news.
9/ so trump has to overcome all that, which he may, it was extremely close in 2020 in arizona.
which brings us to the other surprise swing, georgia
10/ georgia’s gov kemp is not a fan of trump. there’s been a lot of effort to pull electoral shenanigans there, but kemp isn’t going to put his fist on the scales for trump if he comes up short, so on paper at least a decent dem margin in ga will hold.
11/
like az, ga has had a few state level trumper candidates. in 2020 warnock beat loeffler by 2 pts, and ossoff beat perdue by ~1 pt. that’s really close, but it’s a margin that’s pretty shenanigans-proof.
then in 22 ga gop nominated herschel for senate. warnock won by 1 pt in a “red wave” year.
12/
so, like az, ga has rejected trumpist candidates at the state level multiple times in favor of dems, even facing national headwinds for the dem party like the summer 2022 inflation.
i’m not saying trump won’t flip one or both of az or ga, but it’s not a slam dunk, work must be done.
13/
which brings us to the blue wall. if trump accomplishes the previous two things, he has to flip one of wisconsin, michigan, or pennsylvania.
wi is probably the most vulnerable, followed by mi, then pa.
14/
wi re-elected ron johnson in 2022. god damn it, but by about 20k votes. in the same election, tony evers won the gubernatorial election by a 3 pt margin, so it’s hard to draw a conclusion there.
since then, wi had a high-profile supreme court election, which flipped the court’s make-up.
15/
so this year wi is having its state leg elections under maps drawn up by evers after the sc ordered them to get their shit together, meaning this’ll be the first competitive state leg elections in wi in 15 yrs.
elections have consequences.
16/
meanwhile, the wi gop was doing this.
abortion is very much on the ballot in wisconsin this year.
17/
michigan just re-elected big gretch by ten points, the michigan gop is somehow worse off than the az gop (which has been taken over by complete psychopaths) by having a schismatic civil war, and is also broke.
biden was very public in supporting the uaw strike, among other union supports.
18/
the big concern in michigan is the large muslim-american population who are, justifiably and understandably, pissed off at biden for not doing more to restrain israel in gaza.
i have no idea how important this will be, but if israel and hamas agree a biden-backed ceasefire it probably helps.
19/
and this is why it’s deeply unlikely a netanyahu-led gov’t is going to agree to a ceasefire before the election.
20/
of course, trump is doing everything he can to ruin his chances by using “palestinian” as a slur for biden and schumer; holding rallies at non-union factories; “black jobs”; things of that nature.
i think mi is the biggest wild card, but trump has to make inroads with people of color to win.
21/
if pennsylvania falls, i think we’re in full democratic collapse mode, and ironically the fall of the keystone state would herald the end to constitutional governance in this country.
we all watched dr oz lose, hilariously, to fetterman. the leg is split, and the gov is blue.
22/
so trump’s path to winning is:
1) hold nc
2) flip az and ga
3) flip wi
i’ve covered why nc is touchy, az and ga are uphill battles, and wi dems have shown the payoff of working with stacey abrams to get it together and start winning elections.
each of these things would be hard, but…
23/
dobbs.
i haven’t mentioned dobbs. which is funny, because it’s the giant fucking blue whale in the room.
fielding weirdos and people who genuinely need help as senate candidates is enough of a handicap.
but now we’re seeing the full influence of dobbs, and it’s not pretty if you’re a trumper
24/
2022 midterm should have been a red wave based on fundamentals.
incumbent party, inflation not doing great, weird economy coming out of covid. 538’s most likely house split was ~228-207 based on polls.
lol, nope.
and that was before the abortion bans really started to hit.
https://bsky.app/profile/stephenwebb.bsky.social/post/3kw6qykty742x
25/
*since dobbs*, and the news that abortion bans are indeed as psychotic as people feared, you’ve had elections like this, a d+25 swing over a year earlier
https://ballotpedia.org/Oklahoma_state_legislative_special_elections,_2023
26/
in alabama, a d+30 swing
https://ballotpedia.org/Alabama_House_of_Representatives_District_10
27/
things of that nature. you’ve also seen multiple amendments protecting abortion passing in places like 2020 r+8 ohio by 14 points, even after ratfucking shenanigans by the ohio sos.
there is a lot of anecdotal evidence that dobbs is a near-national d+20 swing in all but the safest seats.
28/
a d+5 swing flips nc and florida, and puts texas in play.
fucking texas.
where ted cruz’s internal polling numbers had him creating shit like this and trying to make himself out as a bipartisan dealmaker.
https://www.texastribune.org/2024/04/10/ted-cruz-bipartisan-senate-reelection/
29/
btw that cruz rebranding effort is going about as well as you’d expect.
https://www.texasdemocrats.org/media/report-top-democrat-for-cruz-accused-of-sexual-harassment
30/
dobbs is a god damned nuclear bomb on the political landscape. likely voter models have no idea how to deal with it. with polling response rates in the gutter, but the vibe from every actual election is this:
women. are. pissed.
it is sad that dobbs could end up saving the republic
SiubhanDuinne
yep. we. are.
But hear us roar, watch us unsheathe our claws, see us bare our fangs.
On an utterly unrelated subject, RIP Martin Mull. Apparently his death was announced early this morning, but I missed it until just a few minutes ago. Funny guy.
piratedan
The biggest tell is that polling (whoever is doing it) has been unable to “identify” Dobbs influenced voters, so the GOP and the media treat it as if it doesn’t exist if they can’t find a poll with it. Somehow, they are choosing to discount the fact that every time the voters go to the ballot box, it’s pretty goddamn evident.
BR
I think this analysis swings too far in the other direction, which maybe is the point because there has been a lot of doomerism and this counters it. But my impression is the polls in the swing states haven’t been nearly as good for Biden as for senators and others, which could mean that there will be a number of voters splitting tickets.
Maybe we have all gotten all the wake up calls needed over the last week and it’s now or never to take action.
Mousebumples
Thanks for FPing this, WaterGirl!
This was all stuff I’d read over the past few months, but it helped put the puzzle pieces together. We still need to do the work – and I don’t want to say everything is accurate. But he seems to have the receipts.
My take on the Wisconsin stuff – pretty solid, overall.
I blame racism (and GOP deep pocket money putting super racist ads all over the TV) for a lot of the ticket splitting. Which is unfortunate since Sen. Mandela Barnes would have been amazing.
True. The GOP splintered when the hard right candidate advanced from the primary. The areas where the more moderate (female) GOP candidate did well in the primary fell off in the election.
And the BOW counties (Brown-Outagamie-Winnebago eg Green Bay-Appleton-Oshkosh) are trending blue vs their usual purple, in that race at least.
(another reason why I’m excited about the ob/gyn recruited for WI-08. Even though it’s R+10, I think we’ve got a chance, especially in a Blue Wave)
Very true! I have left leaning friends that haven’t voted for ages because “it’s all rigged.” Hoping to convince some/all of them to actually turn out. Possibly with unofficial postcards….
The WI GOP isn’t broke, but they’re dumb. They haven’t had to actually compete electorally in 15 years. Wikler and WisDems will run circles around them, I hope.
Mousebumples
@BR: I am not sure how representative polls are at this point, anyhow.
With 4+ months ago, the polls will move. This is the state of the race (ish). Now we need to make it a Biden/Harris victory.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@SiubhanDuinne:
Hey, he was Vlad Masters/Vlad Plasmius from Danny Phantom. He did fantastic voice work. RIP
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Thanks for sharing this Mousebumples and WG
BR
@Mousebumples:
What are the best ways to volunteer? It’s dismaying that there doesn’t seem to be a Biden/Harris-led grassroots organizing drive of the level of Obama ’08, and it seems more than necessary this year. So it’s not clear.
Suzanne
@BR: I am crossing my fingers that popular Democratic candidates in down-ballot races pull Joe over the finish line this time. Kind of the opposite dynamic we usually talk about, but it could work?
Mike in NC
I first voted in 1972 when I turned 18. Every single election since then has been treated as a simple, stupid goddamn horse race with little to no mention of the actual issues. The media thinks we’re all five years old.
BR
@Suzanne:
Yeah, need to have Dem campaign events feel like one of those Marvel or whatever movies that have all the good guys teaming up for one big battle. It’s more than Biden. Get all the stars of the party on the road 24/7 to show up with Biden and to headline their own events.
Make the campaign about it being a team sport, Team Democracy vs. Team (fill in the blank)
Dangerman
Biden. Trump won the battle and lost the war today.
One, there were a lot of single issue Court voters for their side. Now, our side will have our fair share.
More importantly, if Trump tries any shit after the election, arrest his fat ass immediately. Presidents have qualified immunity. Presidential candidates have jack.
rikyrah
Since this is an Open Thread;
BaseballHistoryNut (@nut_history) posted at 6:24 AM on Mon, Jul 01, 2024:
Happy Bobby Bonilla day who’s getting paid 1.19 million by the Mets today. Can’t also forget, he also has a second deferred contract with the Baltimore Orioles for another $500.000 every year from 2004 until 2029. https://t.co/e51ieUtDve
(https://x.com/nut_history/status/1807737038029947063?s=02)
H.E.Wolf
Go straight to Google and look up your state (or local) Democratic Party. They will be running what’s called a coordinated campaign. It encompasses every election on the ballot, from state legislature to Congress (all House races, and Senate seats where applicable) to President.
Once you’ve Googled, go to their website and sign up. If you are willing to do canvassing/door-knocking or phonebanking, they will LOVE you. If you can’t stand the idea of any of that, tell them you can do data entry or bundle up flyers for the canvassers. They will be confused at first, but soon they will LOVE you. :)
I’m not being flippant. Campaigns love their volunteers!
danielx
Doom and despair for Dems – what I’d expect from the usual suspects, but I would have thought BJ commentariat to be relatively immune.
Biden on his worst day is better than Trump on any day by several orders of magnitude. Anybody who says that one debate spells disaster in November doesn’t know what the fuck he or her is talking about.
H.E.Wolf
If it’s that team-sport feeling you’re after, *show up and volunteer*. It is Team Democracy Central, in every campaign office I’ve ever been in.
BR
@H.E.Wolf:
I wonder whether there is any way to help swing states from out of state, though. Sadly the presidency is the key, it seems.
eclare
@SiubhanDuinne:
He was also great on Roseanne, as a gay man when there were very few gay characters on tv. That show had some really poignant episodes, and then Roseanne went off the deep end. It’s a shame.
Mousebumples
@BR: depends where you are and what you want to do (and are able to do!). I’m in Wisconsin, and WisDems have canvassing like all the time. Probably phone banking. I get so many texts, so that’s probably an option. Lawyers have unique ways they can help on Election Day. Postcards are a favorite around here. (and my preference, given kiddos and schedules)
I think WaterGirl has a postcard post on the sidebar or header. Otherwise, I often write for Postcards to Voters. Postcards to Swing States is another option.
https://www.mobilize.us/ is another site with various volunteer options to consider.
@Suzanne: agreed! I’m sure there will be a mix of voter perspectives, but upballot/down ballot coat tails are hopefully a focus!
ETA – can’t find WaterGirl’s postcarding info link. Might be too late for me brain to find things, or…? Anyone able to see what I’m missing?
comrade scotts agenda of rage
“He needs to do X-Y-Z. Oh, you mean he’s already doing that? Well NOT THAT WAY!!!!!!!”
“He had a cold at 81 which means he’s not capable of being in the most powerful job on the planet for the next four years”.
I’m paraphrasing but everybody gets the idea.
Self-professed ‘progressives’ who don’t identify as *Democrats*.
Start paying attention and being grateful for Joe’s strengths like stability, quiet resolve and tenacity.
Once again, this election is all about Trump being a massive threat to US democracy and how that manifests in so many ways.
Another Scott
Thanks for this.
Indeed, too many conventional political reporters are male and still don’t recognize (or refuse to recognize) what a huge deal Dobbs is. You would think that half a million people showing up to DC for the Women’s March would have gotten their attention.
It won’t be easy, nothing in politics this century has been easy, but Biden has towering advantages in this election.
Along those lines, we also have facts and science on our side.
Tonight I learned about SciLine.org from the AAAS. It’s a free resource for scientists and reporters on how to better communicate with the public, and how to contact experts in many areas. On July 25 they are doing a media briefing on Voter Demographics, Access, and Turnout.
127 days to go.
Hang in there, everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
rikyrah
Scott MacFarlane (@MacFarlaneNews) posted at 0:04 PM on Mon, Jul 01, 2024:
Federal official:
Steve Bannon is in the custody of the Federal Bureau of Prisons (FBOP) at the Federal Correctional Institution (FCI) Danbury, Connecticut
(https://x.com/MacFarlaneNews/status/1807822619778982278?t=a2kEXbNo6AiXcoBZaFoCWw&s=03)
Josie
@BR:
Sign up with Postcards to Swing States. You pick a state and they send you postcards, addresses, and a choice of three specific messages. You buy the stamps, write a message and mail the cards as directed. I chose Nevada, they sent me 200 addresses with post cards. I write a few every day and will mail them all on October 15, as directed.
https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards
WaterGirl
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Nice to see you here.
Mousebumples
@H.E.Wolf: thanks for this suggestion!
I’m planning/hoping to stop by my local office up ask for off hours volunteer stuff tomorrow. (and/or… Have they thought about postcards? 🤩)
Any idea if online volunteer vs showing up in person is better? I was leaning towards the latter – I’m real, honest! – but we’ll see…
WaterGirl
@danielx: Oh, gosh, I hope you didn’t interpret this post from me as not being sure whether Biden is better than Trump!
Mousebumples
@BR: depending on your time zone, if you’re willing to phone bank, that can often be done remotely. (yay covid technology!)
Also, local races matter too. Sure, Biden probably has CA’s electoral votes… But let’s flip some US House seats and introduce the world to Speaker Hakeem Jeffries! (the same can be said of NY House seats)
Mousebumples
@Another Scott: thanks for that link! It’s almost bedtime here, but I’ve opened the link to review tomorrow.
WaterGirl
@Mousebumples:
I had moved it off the page, but moved it back just now. It needs some updating. Lots of good choices being talked about in the comments – those need to be added to it.
But at least it’s back now.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl: I think he was talking about the commentariat in general over the last few days. I too have been surprised by some people (not the trolls).
Mousebumples
@WaterGirl: thanks again for Front Paging this!
I’m off to bed shortly (probably, c’mon brain), but I’m excited to be fighting for Democrats and democracy with all of you this year.
When should we start up with the postcarding threads again? How often? Add themes? (music, recipes, amazing Dems through history, etc.?) Other things to spotlight?
Damn, with my brain in planning overdrive… Maybe sleep time isn’t quite here yet, lol…
Mousebumples
@WaterGirl: link here, for reference
I’ll try to take a look at that later this week, if time allows, hopefully. 😊
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@WaterGirl:
Thanks! It’s nice to be here
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Mousebumples:
From your keyboard to the eyeballs of some here. Emphasis mine on *Democrats*.
Ishiyama
I, too, first voted in 1972. (I had campaigned for Democrats in previous elections, before I was eligible to vote.) Democrats can win, even under less than ideal circumstances, if we pull together. We saved Bill Clinton’s neck in 1996, despite his reckless and disgraceful behavior. We are not going to let Uncle Joe down! He has done nothing to deserve our scorn, he has a steady hand on the tiller of the ship of state.
Jackie
@BR: After today’s decision, we need a strong trifecta: House, Senate AND WH.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: I have been very surprised, as well. It’s been painful to see, almost worse than the situation itself. I’m sure that sounds crazy, but I found it shocking.
I think it’s turning around. It can be hard to stay steady when the ground is shifting beneath your feet.
WaterGirl
@Jackie: We needed all three even before this, but I agree that now we need it more than ever.
Corrupt SCOTUS is even more corrupt and their utter shamelessness and lawlessness is shocking. The call is indeed coming from inside the house!
It’s a helluva test for democracy.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@WaterGirl:
Well, it’s at least out in the open at last.
Over the decades, we’ve attempted to use the Extreme Court as a signature campaign issue and it’s never really taken hold with the electorate.
I’m hoping this year will be different given the brazen corruptness of Alito and Uncle Clarence, the naked awfulness of the rulings (although every one entirely predictable, that’s what they were put there for) and the fact they handed us a martyr, Roe v Wade, on a platter.
Women, particularly black women, will hopefully save our country…again.
Kristine
@Josie: Just signed up with them.
japa21
My take is that, if the debate didn’t bury Biden, and it didn’t, then the main way to go is up.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
It is should be the men too. Think about this, every woman in your family who had a miscarriage would be dead if the Godbotherors get their way.
Mousebumples
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: I’m okay with independents that caucus with the Dems.
Yes, Bernie. Even you with your over the top former campaign people who are annoying as anything.
I’ll even take never Trumpers. I want to elect Democrats, but I’ll take all the allies to vote for Biden as we can get.
Mousebumples
Apologies if this is being pedantic, but technically that isn’t true. Women often have undetected miscarriages before they know or are sure they’re pregnant.
However, the lives of all who can get pregnant are at risk thanks to the Religious Radicals. Even if someone has had a non-life threatening miscarriage, they probably know one or more women who needed medical attention for a miscarriage. (my mom, my aunts, my cousins…)
I’ve found that distinction to be an effective way to reach he religious people who are anti abortion. These laws are so terrible that they don’t distinguish between abortion vs miscarriage care.
(I believe abortion is healthcare, but I also want to peel off support from the GOP in Wisconsin. Your tactics may vary.)
azlib
I believe the Supreme majority has done it again. Chevron was bad, but it gets into some really technical inside baseball. The immunity decision really exposed the corruption of the Court majority and I think a lot of people are rightly upset that a President can now get away with practically any criminal behavior. I do not think this decision was a smart politcal move and may be as important as Roe to a lot of people. I do not think the majority of this country wants a lawless President. Biden pounded on the issue today and I hope the campaign keeps it up.
Sister Golden Bear
@Mousebumples: You could present them with the political equivalent of the famous philosophical thought experiment —l whose name escape me at the moment — about why it makes sense to believe in God even my if you’re not sure.
Voting doesn’t take much effort and if the system is rigged then no it won’t matter— but if it isn’t rigged their vote can make difference. So why not gamble on the latter, even if it’s a long shot.
sanjeevs
I wonder will any of the oligarchs rethink things. Instead of having god-like power and wealth, they will be courtiers subject to humilation like Jack Ma or worse like Boris Berisovsky (murdered after he rethought his support for Putin).
I doubt it though.
RevRick
@Mousebumples: Thank you for calling this to WaterGirl’s attention. I joined bluesky just so I could express my appreciation for this thread.
sanjeevs
@Sister Golden Bear: Pascal’s wager
Chet Murthy
@Sister Golden Bear: Pascal’s wager. It was a great example of the fallacy of false binary choices: what if the God isn’t the Christian one, but the Mayan one? Or one who hates Christians ? Ha!
But OTOH, when applied to the election, it’s actually perfect! B/c it’s truly a binary choice. [setting aside kooks who think RFKJr has a chance]
H.E.Wolf
I got in touch initially via a combination of email/phone/persistence. Walk-ins are an option, if there’s an event going on. (Events are often listed on the website.)
I worked in the campaign office a few times, so that they could see I was (1) a real person and (2) had basic proficiency.
Once they were reasonably sure I wasn’t going to break the database accidentally or on purpose, they said – to my surprise – “Hey, it’s okay with us if you work from home, we can keep in touch via email”. Which is how I turned into a remote-log-in data entry nerd.
Planetjanet
@BR: It is here in Virginia. We have campaign offices and statewide coordinated campaign of all the races.
ArchTeryx
@Sister Golden Bear: In autocracies, especially fascist autocracies, voting is mandatory and there’s no such thing as a secret ballot. Either you vote for The Leader, or instantly be targeted for elimination. They have elections, but they are total farces and everyone knows it. No autocrat ever loses an election.
If your vote didn’t count, they wouldn’t be trying so damn hard to keep you from doing it. I’ve used that logic on “my vote won’t matter” before and it’s worked sometimes.
Mousebumples
@Sister Golden Bear: yeah, I’ve tried that without success. (I also believe voting for statewide races matter.) they may just be lazy non voters. But I’m gonna try.
@RevRick: welcome to bsky! Feel free to find and follow me (@mousebumples.bsky.social) if you’d like.
@H.E.Wolf: makes sense. I’m going to stop in during office hours tomorrow, so we’ll see how that goes. Not opposed to going there periodically, but the hours will be odd so probably not ideal. We’ll see!
H.E.Wolf
It’d be awfully damn nice if men sacked up and did their share of this work.
My advice, which I’m taking now, myself: log out and do something.
eclare
@Sister Golden Bear:
As someone asked downstairs, is today your birthday?
RevRick
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I, a white male Boomer, am pissed too. The United Church of Christ came out in favor of a woman’s right to choose in 1971, two years before Roe, and I joined RCAR, the Religious Coalition for Abortion Rights, early in my ministry, when I served a church in Western PA. For many years, I was the go-to clergy for Democratic Party gatherings in Westmoreland County, because the Catholic Church would no longer participate.
The United Church of Christ took the stance it did, because the reasons are deeply embedded in our Calvinist theology, which holds that since only God alone is sovereign, no human (neither prince nor priest nor thrall) can claim sovereignty over matters of conscience.
Matt McIrvin
@ArchTeryx: There’s that fake quote that Emma Goldman didn’t say: “If voting changed anything, they’d make it illegal.” Well, GUESS WHAT, people keep finding ways to make it illegal.
Belafon
We’ve been telling apathetic women for years that Roe was going down. The only sad part is that it took Dobbs to get them to see that Roe was going down.
RaflW
@Suzanne: From today’s weekly email that I get from Amanda Litman at RFS
“Run for Something has proven that local candidates can increase turn-out for the entire ticket within their districts, anywhere from 0.4-2.3%. That is enough to make up the margin of victory.”
So, yes, reverse coattails can be a thing.
Nikkoboy
Ron Johnson’s winning margins in his 3 elections to the senate:
2010: 105,061
2016: 98,766
2022: 26,718
Belafon
@Sister Golden Bear: It’s called Pascal’s wager. And while it is easy to convince people you believe in God, is it that easy to convince God you do?
Jackie
@ArchTeryx: This is my fear for America. Our vote may really not count.
Now, more than ever, I wish the Electoral College was abolished. The EC is TCFG’s only hope for re-election. He won’t win the popular vote (again.)
Xavier
“it is sad that Dobbs could end up saving the republic.”
It was always obvious that these zealots would overplay the very strong hand that was given to them by the Constitution.
Jackie
@eclare: Eclare, that was me, and apparently I jumped the gun a day early. Ooops
eclare
@Jackie:
Ahhh, thanks!
moonbat
@Mousebumples: Just signed up with Postcards to Swing States. Thanks for the info!
Viva BrisVegas
@Belafon: Cthulhu will take your word for it.
NotMax
@Viva BrisVegas
Add-on channel (at a slight extra charge) to Hulu.
//
Ruckus
@danielx:
Not saying you are wrong but the reality is that not everyone follows BJ or really any positive place like this. Some vote party line because they have for actual generations. Or because their family makes a point to discuss and point out who to vote for. Or because some don’t vote because they see no point.
This means we and others like us have to point out the positives and negatives. You know, something like – What do we get with each candidate? What do we not get with each candidate? Biden is old, SFB is not that far behind him. Biden wants the best for all and the country, SFB wants the best for him and him alone. R’s seem to want the wealthy to rule, and D’s want equality over money, over power. And it goes on and on like this, Rs are selfish and Ds are not. If you make a list like this on at least the big issues, even on a personal level, unless you are rather wealthy dems are better for you. That is less so if you are wealthy, where greed seems to be the guiding light.
Now sure others gain something and that may be an issue for some, however look at ShitForBrains and tell me he is in it or in any way better for anyone but ShitForBrains.
Jackie
This. Not personally being a downer, but this:
Maybe Pence will take umbrage and raise hell.//
Quadrillipede
@Sister Golden Bear: Pascal’s wager, IIRC
[ETA Also I’m late!]
Quadrillipede
@Xavier: Fascists always overreach.
West of the Rockies
@Belafon:
Maybe more people would believe in God if her followers weren’t so frequently dreadful. Anyway, it’s just a thought.
Sister Golden Bear
@eclare: My birthday is July 2nd. Hitting the big 6-0.
smike
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Or in prison.
Elizabelle
@Sister Golden Bear: happy birthday!! Hope it’s marvelous.
West of the Rockies
@Sister Golden Bear:
A pup…
Congratulations! Happy Birthday. 🎂
Geoduck
Martin Mull appeared in the movie adaptation of the board game Clue, which (surprisingly perhaps) is a fun little romp.
I’ll also always remember him for somehow getting cast to play a flamboyant villainous rock star in an episode of the 70’s Wonder Woman series.
Omnes Omnibus
@Sister Golden Bear:
Ha! You’re older than me. I won’t get there until August.
frosty
@BR: I have never seen an organizing drive like Obama ’08. As soon as he was done running after ’12 the PA Dems just fell apart like usual.
Amazing what difference it makes having a community organizer run for office, isn’t it?
Barbara
@Sister Golden Bear: Same as my sister’s, my husband’s, and my nephew’s. Mine was Sunday.
Happy Birthday!
frosty
@rikyrah: My Orioles are paying this dude half a million for 25 years??? Argghhh. Must’ve been a Peter Angelos deal. Or his son. Or whoever was in charge then (not the current ones I hope!). Argghh again.
frosty
@H.E.Wolf:
I’ve never seen PA do a coordinated campaign in my County.
frosty
@BR: Drive across the border and canvass. My brother goes to PA from NY. Maryland and NJ are close to PA. Californians go to Nevada. Etc Etc Etc.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@smike: Prison terms for miscarriages will be after they got their way the ban birth control, then it’s making masturbation a felonly. There is no end game to this, pissing people off and hurting them is the goal.
prostratedragon
If you watch the Donald Sutherland movie Eye of the Needle, as I did this weekend, you’ll see portions of the Isle of Mull in the west of Scotland.
I enjoyed Martin Mull in Mary Hartman, Mary Hartman and his comedy sketches.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
That SCOTUS ruling, I suppose I should have got the clue with Alito citing The Witch Finder General in that ruling that the revolution this dude wants to undo is the Glorious Revolution.
Considering Biden is Catholic, I wouldn’t be shocked to learn that Alito would be all in for Biden basically declaring himself king.
Alito doesn’t want fascism, he wants absolute monarchies.
Chet Murthy
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Surely not: he wants a king who will hurt the right people.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
If he wants the second of coming of Charles II of England, Biden is Alito’s man, down to the stutter.
Redshift
@BR: One things to remember about ’08 is that Obama ran in a primary as well as a general election. There’s some stuff going on now for volunteers, but there will be a lot more, and I’m a lot more places in August/September.
I know we’d all like there to be a lot more organizing everywhere now because it’s so important, but I suspect it wouldn’t be that effective to contact a lot of the people who are less into politics this early.
But it’s still a great time to get involved with your local Dems, and if they’re not active enough, groups like Indivisible are doing stuff right now.
Odie Hugh Manatee
@Jackie:
Ahh yeah, that decision. Now it’s time to get serious!
lol! Faith is a hell of a drug.
BethanyAnne
@SiubhanDuinne: OH, no! Damn, he was awesome. Damn.
BethanyAnne
@Josie: Thanks for that link. That’s something I can do here from Arkansas!
Bonnie
I have no control over any state except the one I live in. However, I plan that despite being 79, I will work my ass off to help all get-out-the-vote efforts. djt lost last election by 7 million votes; I will work to make him lose by 20 million votes. He’s going down whether he thinks he will or not.
Chet Murthy
@Bonnie: I don’t know what the future holds. I only know that if I wake up on Nov 6 and TCFG is reinstalled, I will not have regrets for what I didn’t do to work to prevent it.
BethanyAnne
@Geoduck: I love that movie *so* much. Madeline Khan ad-libbed the “flames, flames on side of my face” rant, and you can see Mull right behind her while she did it. Just perfect. And it has Michael McKean!
danielx
@WaterGirl:
Lord no, of course not.
frosty
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: If Dobbs were in effect years ago my brother and I would both be widowers. Ectopic pregnancy and miscarriages. Damn right I know the stakes.
Redshift
@Chet Murthy: And in my experience, doing stuff makes me feel much better than just worrying. I recommend it.
Chet Murthy
@frosty: @Enhanced Voting Techniques: EVT has a point, and the fact that most (all) of us here agree about the importance of bodily autonomy doesn’t change the other fact, which is that men just don’t care about it as much. I just did a Google search and found this Gallup writeup of polls done over decades: https://news.gallup.com/poll/245618/abortion-trends-gender.aspx
and …. well, it seems pretty crystal clear that while women started supporting the unconditional right to abortion in greater and greater numbers starting around 2020, men have …. pretty much stayed the same on the subject. Which is a pretty depressing and disappointing state of affairs.
I’m a guy, and sure, I’ve supported a woman’s right to abortion for a long time. But that doesn’t mean I can’t look at my fellow men and see that a lot of them are just pigs. As a front-pager at LG&M, Christa Blackmon once quipped, #YesAllMen. It is what it is.
cain
@Chet Murthy:
Men are pigs. I figured that out after I started dating after divorcing my wife. The stories these women would tell me was appalling. I can see how much they’ve suffered. That’s not to say it isn’t happening the other way around – but I dont know those stories.
But by in large, it’s not any stretch of the imagination to know that behind any pain behind it a woman it’s either a man’s fault or the patriarchal society.
Some men need to educate themselves on what all a woman goes through in this world.
Chet Murthy
@Chet Murthy: I don’t mean to say that we should feel guilt. Rather, that our being men should not cause us to excuse so many other men for their evident misogyny.
cain
@Geoduck: I always remembered him as the guy in “Mr. Mom” – the drunk marketing executive. He was hilarious in that one.
NotMax
@SiubhanDuinne
Repeated from an earlier discussion about his passing, Fernwood 2 Night .
;)
YY_Sima Qian
SCOTUS just gave the Herrenvolk reactionaries the legal cover to implement Project 2025 to the fullest extent if Trump wins, leveraging the full power of the USG. It further clarified the stakes for this election, if any was still needed. Vote for the Ds even if Biden is comatose, or is replaced by a reanimated corpse, or a badly charred mannequin (figuratively). Doesn’t matter how poorly one thinks of the Biden’s Administration’s policies on various fronts, as I do on foreign, trade & industrial policy, this last line of defense has to be held if the US is to avoid a lengthy period of darkness (probably only to be ended by civil war or revolution). Only then can we hope to start turning back the tide. You can either decide to help the Herrenvolk reactionaries, or you can help the anti-Fascists. Not voting is helping the reactionaries.
If Biden wins & the Ds hold the Senate, immediately start pushing all Ds in positions to power to leverage the full extend of the powers of their offices to mitigate, deny, defeat reactionary power grabs, anything w/in the bounds of laws & the Constitution. Pack the courts, abolish the filibuster, go after all the reactionary orgs w/ the regulatory state before it crumbles, expel the millenarian kooks from the GOFO ranks in the US military, defund & rebuild local law enforcement where possible. Primary any D who still does not behave as if they understand the stakes, & are still beholden to their parochial interests stemming from the rules/norms of institutions that the reactionaries have already set fire to.
I am in the States in a couple of weeks, 1st time since the start of the pandemic. I am curious what it is like now in my corner of Upstate NY, which might as well be Alabama culturally. I would like to think most of my white collar colleagues are anti-Trump & might be motivated enough to vote. I have requested my absentee ballot, & hope to do my part to defeat the incumbent R Congressman.
If Trump wins, this may be the last time I step onto US soil for a long time. Definitely not taking my wife or daughters to visit.
prostratedragon
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Alito doesn’t want someone who would adhere to (this) Pope.
Chet Murthy
@prostratedragon: Hell, Alito doesn’t want a Christian, he wants a Christofascist.
opiejeanne
@H.E.Wolf: I have brought food, casseroles, to the local Democratic HQ, because no one working the phones or doing the myriad other jobs in the office has time to cook. I’ve written postcards to voters, done phone canvassing and I’ve rung doorbells. I’ve been doing this since the 1970s, a mayor here, a councilman there, a California State Assemblyman.
It’s not hard to find something to do if you wander into your local campaign HQ and ask what you can do to help.
Villago Delenda Est
@Mike in NC:
That’s because they’re all five years old, and never learn from anything.
sab
OT Totally off topic but an example of how the Supremes don’t actually understand how complicated local government is. Also too state government.
Cleveland Browns football team wants to move from downtown Cleveland to Brookpark, a western suburb where they train.
Seemed like a no brainer to me. Then the airport (also in Brook Park) weighed in. The Browns on weekends would totally fuck up traffic, including airport traffic on game days. Also traffic ro the airport.
I never go to games. Occassionally I fly out of that airport. ( But have I menttionned how much I fear flying? )Never give the airports an edge.
As I said: complicated, and I am not a clear thinker. I am emotional.
opiejeanne
@YY_Sima Qian: Aren’t your parents in the US?
YY_Sima Qian
@opiejeanne: They currently are (after spending the last few months in China, for the 1st time since the start of the pandemic), but they are moving back to China, where most of their families & many friends have always remained. They also want to be close to their grandkids.
Part of the purpose of my trip is to help them pack & close out all of the accounts.
Cost of medical care (through the public hospitals at least) w/o health insurance is still much cheaper than in the US even w/ Medicare, delivered much more quickly, & quality of care improving pretty quickly (especially in the bigger cities). Another reminder of just how distorted healthcare in the US remains, even after Obamacare
Also, I would not feel it safe for them to stay in the US if Trump is elected.
YY_Sima Qian
To answer the question of the thread, I would definitely want to be Biden. He is the sitting President, the SCOTUS just declared that Biden (as President) could arrest Trump for absconding w/ classified documents as he left office (& thus not President) & throw him in jail, & there will be no legal consequences. Hell, Biden could declare candidate Trump an “Enemy of the State” & send him to Guantanamo Bay, & there will be no legal consequences.
Ruckus
@zhena gogolia:
Some of the publicity around politics is always on the edge of pure BS.
Like personally I believe that republicans are far more concerned about money for themselves than anyone else. Meaning of course that most of us worry to a degree about money, having it feeds, clothes, and houses us, and as greed to at least some degree is a rather common human trait especially in a modern society where having at least a minimum amount is necessary.
Ruckus
@rikyrah:
Gee that sounds like such a shame – NOT!!!!!!
Jesse
Pitched in $25 to the Four Directions WI initiative. Thanks, WaterGirl. Let’s go!
Suzanne
@comrade scotts agenda of rage:
That would be me, BTW. If you want to call me an asshole, just do it straight. It’s okay. We can all handle it.
BTW, Biden is absolutely not doing extended and frequent interviews, or press conferences. The media is noting how much more closed off he has been compared to other candidates, compared to how he used to be. This is not serving him well.
I remember Obama doing extended interviews with Marc Maron, eating with Anthony Bourdain, going on the Daily Show, etc etc etc. Frequent press conferences, taking questions on the fly. Using media to his advantage. Displaying his intelligence and depth. Meeting many people where they are on the shows they already watch. A clip of a rally reading a prepared speech in North Carolina is, okay, fine, a start, I guess.
I just listened to an episode of 99% Invisible, while walking my dog, and I didn’t realize until it started that AOC would be a guest. She pops up across my life all the time, and I genuinely don’t seek her out. She’s not my congressperson. But she’s incredibly good at drawing positive attention to herself in the social media age. Even if you don’t like her politics, she’s good at staying in front of people. Building a brand identity.
I think there is a tendency, maybe it’s an age thing, maybe it’s a social media thing, to think that if you ignore a liability and pretend it’s not worth discussing, it’ll go away. It doesn’t. Not in the age of the meme. Again, Obama got this. I remember the press conference he gave about his birth certificate. That was smart. The last thing that sticks in people’s heads needs to be positive.
Manyakitty
@YY_Sima Qian: Biden should do everything you suggest.
YY_Sima Qian
@Manyakitty: This is not all on Biden, it’s Senate & House Ds, D governors, D state reps, D mayors, D city councilors, down to anti-Fascist citizens pushing all of the above.
Mike in Oly
Thank you for this. I feel so much better.
Manyakitty
@YY_Sima Qian: fair.
superdestroyer
@Mike in NC: Because when the media focuses on issues, people stop listening and readership/viewership goes down.
The Truffle
Well, now I feel better.
There’s one positive outcome of the SCOTUS ruling: no one gives a shit about Thursday’s debate anymore. Except certain media figures. Including Daily Beast, which published third-hand info quoting Whitmer saying Biden “lost Michigan.” She, of course, said it was a lie.
Really, Daily Beast? A third-hand quote from someone alleged to be a rival to Whitmer?
Ruckus
@Mike in NC:
Who owns most of the media, especially at the larger corp level?
It ain’t the average Jane or Joe.
It’s people with money, people with mostly more than enough money, and people who want more money.
That means at least the bend is in that direction – money. And money is
likea narcotic to some people. Now we all know that having some money is far nicer than not having enough. But the point of having far more than enough is power, prestige, comfort, power and oh, did I mention power?And I imagine that it will never change unless humanity as a whole changes and I somehow doubt that, all things considered.