A while back, I posted about Michel Podhorzer’s election analysis showing that Harris’ loss was driven by stay-at-home anti-MAGA voters who sat on their couches rather than voting. Now another analyst, Eric Levitz at Vox, disputes three of Podhorzer’s conclusions:
1) Voters who backed Biden in 2020 — and then stayed home in 2024 — are not necessarily resolutely anti-Trump.
Podhorzer’s argument assumes that Biden voters who stayed home in 2024 could not have done so out of sympathy for any of Trump’s messages. But there’s little basis for that assumption. Low-propensity voters are less ideological than reliable ones, and voters often choose to sit out elections because they are conflicted, agreeing with some of what each party has to say. There’s reason to think that this dynamic drove part of the Democrats’ turnout problem in 2024: Both polling and geographical voting patterns indicate that low-propensity voters became more Republican-leaning during the Biden era.
2) Young, first-time voters turned against the Democratic Party.
The electorate’s youngest voters appear to have been far more right-wing in 2024 than in 2020. This is not a problem that can be attributed to mobilization. Republicans seem to have simply had greater success in appealing to first-time voters last year than they have for a long time.
3) In the Biden era, American voters did become more conservative in some of their values and priorities.
Contrary to Podhorzer’s suggestion, there is considerable evidence that voters grew more right-wing in their attitudes toward immigration and criminal justice and more likely to prioritize those issues. Meanwhile, the electorate also grew more confident in the GOP’s economic judgement.
Since I posted about the Podhorzer piece, I thought I’d also post a piece that pushes back a bit on his conclusions. That said, Podhorzer’s piece is more numbers-driven (relying more on real turnout data), and Levitz’ piece is more polls driven (relying on both pre-election surveys and exit polls). The best case he makes is for (2) since it also relies on registration data (specifically in North Carolina). He also thinks that Democrats don’t necessarily need to moderate their positions on crime and immigration (since they already have) and that they should avoid over-reaction (such as what’s happening with the Laken Riley act.)
Finally, I think the main conclusion that I’ve come to in reading the serious post-election pieces (by which I mean those that use real numbers to back their arguments) is that a tight election like this one is open to a lot of different interpretations that seem plausible depending on which numbers you pick.
hitchhiker
Open thread? I’m just doing my daily check to find out if the thug died while I slept.
Sadly, no.
It’s the only news I care to read.
Baud
I knew I was right.
@mistermix.bsky.social
@hitchhiker: Because we don’t have as many posts as we used to, I mark all of mine “Open Thread” in case it sits around for hours.
zhena gogolia
Whatever the reason, it’s an unimaginable tragedy and catastrophe.
cmorenc
Most disturbing 2024 election electorate phenomenon is why neither the violent insurrection incitement by Trump nor the flagrantly reckless, irresponsible retention and mal-storage of critical national security docs didn’t have more compelling sticking power, while the messy finale of the Afghan withdrawal did. Because polling unmistakably shows that incident is where Biden lost traction that quickly spread to loss of faith by many non-MAGA voters across the board.
John S.
@mistermix
Thanks for your posts. They are always thought provoking and informative. But also thanks for not being intellectually rigid.
I appreciate that you are willing to look at a diverse set of perspectives and even question your own conclusions.
West of the Rockies
Why? Why and on what grounds would “the Republican message” resonate with young first-time voters? Yeah, the toxic-masculinity bros, I get. But what about women, who we are told are more likely to vote then men
For they not give a shit about the environment, housing, reproductive rights?
different-church-lady
I’m telling you, waving away “the economy” with a wimpy “No, actually things are really good (according to statistics)” was just a fundamental blunder.
Matt
Turns out that the only prize you get for “seeking bipartisan consensus” with fascists is… fascists.
Years and years of Dems desperately fluffing the cops and demonizing immigrants led to an entirely predictable result.
different-church-lady
Today’s idle thought: the real reason Trump won is because this is actually where society is going. We’re in a post-decency era.
different-church-lady
@Matt: There is no consensus with fascists. They either do what they want or someone stops them from doing what they want. What you want is immaterial to them.
Redshift
The statistical term I learned from 2016 is “overdetermined” – many explanations can be true because when it’s very close any one of them would have made the difference. But that means none of them is the explanation.
However, all of the material in both sides in this post seems consistent with needing to be active in more media channels all the time, not just as a campaign action.
Baud
@cmorenc:
Obama’s numbers went underwater when he criticized the police for arresting Gates at his own home. He had enough juice to overcome it in 2012. But he was mostly underwater his whole presidency.
zhena gogolia
I notice that race is once again not worthy of mention.
Baud
@different-church-lady:
Agree.
Mike Furlan
The more the American people know about Donald Trump, his rapes, his frauds, his lies, his casual cruelty the more they like him.
They really do want tire rims and anthrax for lunch and there is nothing we can do to change their minds.
oldgold
@West of the Rockies: The grocery store.
John S.
@different-church-lady:
Many of us here agree with you, but right now that kind of sentiment isn’t going to gain much traction while we have so many people invested in the idea that everything Democrats do is perfect and should never be criticized.
different-church-lady
@John S.: As always, there’s constructive criticism, and destructive criticism.
And, as always, most people won’t put the effort into making sure it’s the first one.
Mr. Bemused Senior
Any parent is familiar with “you’re not the boss of me.”
Some people admire Trump’s ability to get away with bad behavior.
John S.
@different-church-lady:
Ain’t that the truth!
tam1MI
I suppose it’s just a coincidence that Our Failed Media Experiment gave little to no play to the insurrection case and the security violations while playing up the most successful military withdrawal in our country’s history as a complete catastrophe.
Chacal Charles Calthrop
Not sure if you need a login to see this, but the FTFNYT has a detailed map of election results:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/us/elections/2024-election-map-precinct-results.html?searchResultPosition=2
Also I just learned Betty Cracker’s good news: yeah!!!! (I read dead threads when I haven’t had a chance to catch up with the blog for a while)
Mr. Bemused Senior
@tam1MI: I’m no fan of “our failed media” but it seems to me the documents case was well covered. There were lots of pictures of the boxes (in the bathroom and the ballroom) and their contents.
Ksmiami
@zhena gogolia: the Biden administration did a terrible job at messaging and ongoing communication with the American people.
cmorenc
@Baud: Difference is that Obama never lost the trust of a sufficient majority of voters, nor did they suffer any tangible adverse economics. Also, critically Obama’s critical risky foreign policy gambit worked out splendidly (taking out OBL), whereas Carter’s hostage rescue mission and Biden’s Afghan withdrawal were perceived as humiliating failures. Had the mission to get OBL ended with failure and Seals in captivity, Obama would have listened in 2012 by several points.
Perception counts more than reality, unfortunately.
Starfish (she/her)
@hitchhiker: Trump has a cryptocurrency grift right now. The comments on this YouTube video are pretty funny.
“This will be the biggest rug. The best rug. The most beautiful rug. There’s never been any rug like this rug.”
“Men, strong men who know finance, came up to me with tears in their eyes and said, sir, sir, please make a meme coin so we can invest in a big, beautiful rug pool. People say “pull,” but it’s pool. A big beautiful pool you can all swim in.”
Barbara
@zhena gogolia: Nor gender. Much less the multiplier effect of both.
New Deal democrat
While your concluding statement is certainly correct: in an election this close, there are a myriad of factors that can be ferreted out to be deemed dispositive. That being said, having read Levitz’s article, I find it unconvincing, and I think Podheretz has the better argument, especially as to #1. So, in order:
1) Voters who backed Biden in 2020 — and then stayed home in 2024 — are not necessarily resolutely anti-Trump. Levitz argues that “ Low-propensity voters … often choose to sit out elections because they are conflicted, agreeing with some of what each party has to say. There’s reason to think that this dynamic drove part of the Democrats’ turnout problem in 2024: Both polling and geographical voting patterns indicate that low-propensity voters became more Republican-oriented….”
If low-propensity voters became more GOP oriented in the last 4 years, then we should have seen a significant increase in Trump’s a jump in Trump’s vote share. We didn’t. Trump picked up about 3 million more votes, consistent with the voting age population increase. The big thing that happened is that Harris lost about 6 million of Biden’s votes. And Trump ran ahead of GOP Senate and House cnadidates in most States, indicating he did draw voters out of the woodwork compared with the rest of the party.
In other words, the main thing that happened with these low propensity voters had to do with the Democrats, not with Trump.
2) Young, first-time voters turned against the Democratic Party. Legit says “Republicans seem to have simply had greater success in appealing to first-time voters last year than they have for a long time.”
My reply is exactly what it was all throughout 2024: ***HOUSING HOUSING HOUSING*** Young people move into apartments and buy their first houses. Apartment rents and house prices outstripped wage gains, rising 37% vs. 20% for average wages during Biden’s term. And that’s before you get to mortgage rates rising from 3% to 7%. Gee, do you think young voters might notice that? And it might drive their opinion of how they were doing economically?
3) In the Biden era, American voters did become more conservative in some of their values and priorities. Levitz argues that “Contrary to Podhorzer’s suggestion, there is considerable evidence that voters grew more right-wing in their attitudes toward immigration and criminal justice and more likely to prioritize those issues.”
Not proven. In particular, did attitudes change or did the *situation* change? In 2021-23, an astonishing 6 MILLION new immigrants came to the US, more than triple the typical totals during such a period. It wasn’t Biden’s “fault,” it was probably more that immigrants were drawn to the white hot US jobs market.
But the fact is a 2% increase in population driven by population in just a couple of years is going to be noticed, and it is going to create a reaction. And violent crime did increase temporarily during the peak COVID years.
My contribution to the debate, fwiw.
Baud
I think people move right mostly because they don’t want to compete with new classes of people for jobs and status.
zhena gogolia
@Barbara: Let’s keep talking about messaging.
West of the Rockies
@oldgold:
Maybe you’re right… well, then I better damn we’ll see eggs for a dollar a dozen and gas for a buck when the beast assumes office.
West of the Rockies
@Chacal Charles Calthrop:
What is BC’s good news? I missed it.
wonkie
I know it is hard for Democrats to admit that we are losing the argument with conservatives, but we are. Democrats at a fundamental level–and I think progressives are the worst on this–persist in the misconception that voters are moved by policies which affect them. We keep believing that if we have the right policies and provide good government service, people will see it and vote for us. We keep believing that when Republicans fuck up, people will turn to us.
Guess what. Republicans have been screwing white male working class guys for forty years and they still vote R. Republicans have fucked up massively repeatedly–Iran/contra, creating budget deficits, the economic meltdown, the war in Iraq, the pussygrabber’s first term in office–and yet they grow in strength.
We have provided good government and good policies repeatedly and been punished by the voters for it repeatedly. Our usual response to this is “Our policies weren’t good enough.” DOesn’t matter. Excellent policies simply get taken for granted and we get punished.
It is not a case of “Oh the media doesn’t inform them.” The media doesn’t inform them, but even when they know by direct personal experience what Dem policies are and what R policies, they continue to be Republicans and are growing their base.
The pussygrabber has been threatening to deport the workforce for Republican farmers, meatpackers, and building trades employers–and yet they voted for him.
I’m not saying that policy doesn’t ever move voters. I am saying that obviously policy doesn’t move at least half the voters and maybe more than half.
Lizard brain stuff moves voters. There’s a lot of people who would trade away their quality of life and say thank you to the politician who has the right Dear Leader qualities and says things that push their fear/hate buttons. They crave a scapegoat. They find comfort in the illusion of themselves as members of a movement let by a leader. Othering is a powerful motivator.
That kind of political movement can’t be stopped with policy arguments.
It also can’t be stopped with moral arguments. Moral arguments, which are often about empathy, don’t resonate with the voters who want a Dear Leader and who respond to the other messaging.
How can it be stopped? Well historically these kinds of movements have either gone on for a long, long time as successful scams, or have gone too far and caused horrors (Hitler) or got beaten back by a Dear Leader who had good policies (FDR).
We need to other the Republicans. We need to label them as the party of the rich–which they are. We need to have politicians who talk smack and attack, attack attack–no more defense, NO apologies, no regrets, no public handwringing, no norms, no being the grown up in the room. Attack. Attack. Attack.
RepubAnon
I’m going with the Swiss Cheese model: it’s not one weird trick, it’s the alignment of a number of separate causal factors. Here, one factor is the number of first time voters that get their news through social media. If your news comes from sources such as the Joe Rogan Experience, you’re more likely to vote Republican.
That, and folks trend fascist when their lives are miserable. If you’re buried in student debt, and the job market is filled with employment offering wages that won’t pay enough to live on, and you’re flooded with online sources blaming immigrants and Democratic Party policies forcing employers to hire people less qualified than you … you’re likely to vote Republican. Unless, of course, your BS detectors are functioning.
TBone
@different-church-lady: 🎯
Professor Bigfoot
“There is no horseshoe. There is only white people who are at best uncomfortable with any power being held in Black* hands. Those white people are at all points of the ‘left-right’ spectrum.”
*Or Jewish or LGBTQIA+ or female
Melancholy Jaques
I think the analyses based on polls of people giving reasons for their votes are bullshit. People are not going to give an accurate answer. No one is going to say they voted for Trump because they can’t imagine a woman as president. No one is going to say that threats to white supremacy were their main concern. They know not to give answers like that.
Second, and probably more common, voters do not acknowledge – even to themselves – that such factors determined their votes. The political media & campaigns give them reasons – inflation, border crisis, etc – that voters adopt as their articulated reasons. But it was the more visceral factors that made them Trump voters.
Years ago I read a study that showed that job interviewers make their decisions in the first ten to twenty seconds, then spend the rest of the interview justifying it. This was part of a trial attorney CLE that was telling us how jurors were deciding cases during voir dire.
p.a.
Abs no evidence for this, just my natural negativity towards the god-botherers, but I think the Rethugs running a Mormon held down their vote. Not decisive, but it helped the margin of victory IMHO.
TBone
@Barbara: good eyes, you two
different-church-lady
@RepubAnon:
Corporations are getting better than ever at jamming the BS detectors.
@mistermix.bsky.social
@New Deal democrat: I wasn’t especially persuaded, either.
You make a good point about housing.
John S.
@different-church-lady:
People are excellent at generating their own BS and now have multiple ways to platform (and monetize) their BS.
I’m not sure we really need much help from corporations at this point.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@West of the Rockies: A great report on her latest health scan.
https://balloon-juice.com/2025/01/17/whos-afraid-of-virginia-woolf/
TBone
I just read an interesting article on Fettermanchimena in, of all places, a local rag of my hometown not famous for their political insight. It’s reprinted here:
Crap! Link paywalled!
Local rag let me in using a burner email address.
https://www.delcotimes.com/2025/01/18/fetterman-was-elected-to-challenge-convention-now-hes-challenging-his-fellow-democrats/
Seems apropos to this conversation.
Professor Bigfoot
@different-church-lady: Any missile defense can be overwhelmed if you throw enough missiles at it.
Same principle.
They throw SO MUCH MF SHITE at us that anyone’s ABM* systems can be overwhelmed.
(Anti Bullshit Missile)
Harrison Wesley
@Professor Bigfoot: Long,long history of oligarchs stirring up hatred towards selected outgroups to divert attention away from themselves. Bacon’s Rebellion was a hundred years before the American Revolution. Now discrimination is mainstream, but still as wrong as it was in 1676.
Kay
@wonkie:
They won’t move until we do. Republicans lead their base, Democrats follow their base.
But I’m weirdly confident we’ll move, because it’s going to get very, very bad.
Someone in our coalition will ..start something :)
West of the Rockies
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
HOORAY!!! 🎆 🎇 🧨
Another Scott
@Redshift: “Overdetermined” – indeed.
I’ll leave this here:
The SCOTUS is way, way outside the norm of the other federal courts. The district courts are in our favor on average, which is why (Reuters story – ) the GQP monsters run to a particular district in Texas to get their rulings…
It’s kinda amazing that the federal elections are as close as they are, given how far on the fringe the SCOTUS is and how much they’re biasing the balance.
Grr…
Hang in there, everyone.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Kay
I feel like I can see it on social media – our base are getting their legs back under them.
It reminds me of 2001-ish.
Its literally the only thing that gives me any hope at all.
Baud
@wonkie:
Yeah, I agree. The one change that is always off the table in these post mortems is liberals changing their political culture.
Baud
@Another Scott:
Agree. We overperform.
BlueGuitarist
@Barbara:
argument in Vox
“2) Young, first-time voters turned against the Democratic Party”
really needs to take gender into account.
Tom Bonier uses different data – registration and verified individual level voter turnout and reported “massive gender gaps among young voters” —
Edmund dantes
Tom Bonier is a data guy that is really good on working with voter data. He’s always worth reading on stuff like this.
https://x.com/tbonier/status/1880668008265535788?s=46&t=OXP-P0l2aEBrD1Q_l9zjsg
TBone
@TBone: the conclusion:
Professor Bigfoot
@BlueGuitarist: I always wanna see the crosstabs on those pronouncements– because “no, Black men are NOT swinging hard to the Republicans, they’ll get similar percentages as they have in the past, so just what men are you actually talking about?”
I know this gets on plenty of nerves, but I believe if we don’t call them out specifically as white men promoting white male supremacy, we are absolutely DOOMED to be able to counter it.
Don’t say “men” about these conservatives… they’re white men.
dww44
@TBone: I’ve maintained all along that the 3 primary reasons we lost were ineffective messaging, misogyny, and race. I still think that’s what happened. Our fellow citizens are truly “eat up” with the latter two. What Democrats need to do is create a better messaging apparatus that shows our full throated opposition to the incoming administration and support of our base…those at the bottom of the pyramid.
wonkie
I agree with the poster upthread that said the reasons people give for their votes are mostly bullshit. Many people decide at a lizard brain level and then rationalize. I don’t believe a single person voted for the pussygrabber because of the economy. I think people voted for him because they see him as a bully and they want the feeling of vicarious power that they get from aligning with the bully. I think that’s his appeal to Black and Latino voter who voted for him and younger voters as well.
We need to give over the illusion that solving policy issues will successfully combat fascism. Discontent maybe fuel fascism, but addressing the sources of discontent doesn’t stop the movement. Better housing options won’t stop young white males from voting R.
The appeal of fascism is emotional. There’s an element of egotism in it and faux heroism. People who watch Faux can feel from the safety of their armchairs that they are part of a heroic movement to save America from the evil other. It’s a fairy tale, literally. There’s a reason why every culture has its traditional fairy tales with the same plot: little guy saved from evil by the hero. That’s the Jesus story too, though it ends with Jesus dying so the little people are supposed to become the heroes by spreading the word. People understand life through stories, and that story of being saved by the hero is visceral with humans. Fascists tap into that. No policies are going to get people to give up that narrative.
We might be able to pull people out of the fascist narrative with a compelling alternative narrative which is why I think our focus should be on Dems as the heroes saving America from the oligarchy.
Professor Bigfoot
@TBone: Who knows? Maybe Ol’ Lurch is onto something.
I am dead nuts certain that we need to have white dudes in visible leadership positions to find any kind of success in this country. If those white dude Democrats are committed to protecting civil and human rights, I can live with it.
Trivia Man
@hitchhiker: Fortune Teller: you will die on a national holiday.
Trump: Which one???
Fortune Teller: Any day you die will be a national holiday.
Professor Bigfoot
@dww44: So tell me why Democratic messaging seems to be effective with every other demographic other than white people.
Specifically and in detail, please.
Baud
IMHO if messaging were the primary problem, someone with a better message or messaging skills would have outcompeted existing Dem politicians in the party by now. I think folks don’t want to grapple with that so that why you end up with DNC and “Establishment” conspiracy theories.
ETA: It’s not the message, it’s us.
TBone
@Professor Bigfoot: I’m still chewing my cud, waiting to see. I was adamant in my support thus far, especially since he was out there taking heat for President Biden on Israel. PA munitions makers got paid Ukraine $. I won’t make up my mind about this last election until at least April Fool’s Day (I said I’d wait six months, and I meant it). That’s why I don’t much communicate my thoughts on messaging yet. I let music do it for me hahaha.
BlueGuitarist
@Professor Bigfoot:
right there with you on wanting to see the cross tabs and what they will show.
Professor Bigfoot
@Baud: My question is a simple one and I’ve not gotten an answer from any of the “bad messaging” people.
Why is it ONLY WHITE PEOPLE cannot hear Democratic messaging, and since that’s the case, why can’t you be honest enough to say it out loud and look for ways to message to white people?
UNLESS, of course, you already understand exactly why white people cannot hear Democratic messaging.
BlueGuitarist
@Edmund dantes:
👍
also, too:
@tbonier.bsky.social
tombonier.substack.com
Baud
@Professor Bigfoot:
Right. Same with men, who lean Republican in every racial and age demo.
FelonyGovt
@zhena gogolia: Race and misogyny.
Professor Bigfoot
@Baud: Fewer than 25% of Black men.
Who are drawn to the misogyny; but then, we are fully human, we have geniuses and absolute fucking idiots among us.
But NOTHING like the over 60% of white men.
Baud
@Professor Bigfoot:
That just tells me that racial identity > gender identity when it comes to political party.
Professor Bigfoot
@Baud: Precisely so. Thus the majority of white women vote Republican right next to their menfolk.
It drives me stark nuts that we’re unwilling to really chew on the subject; that we keep saying “men” and “people” and “women” when we’re ABSO-FUCKIN’-LUTELY talking about white men and white people and white women.
White supremacy hides in the unwillingness of white people to accept that they too are a specific demographic and not just “the norm.”
Baud
@Professor Bigfoot:
White Jewish voters consistently hear our message too. The people who don’t hear it don’t hear it because of their own social experiences and environment. I would love to break through to them, but I don’t hold us responsible for their failure to hear (except to the extent we’re agents of social progress).
BlueGuitarist
Since Podhorzer’s name is in the title, a reminder that he coined the phrase “margin of effort”
presumably to encourage more effort, in elections within the polling margin of error.
RevRick
@hitchhiker: Sadly, Felon47 remains on the breathing side.
Professor Bigfoot
@Baud: I think it more accurate to say Jews who present as white, and absent a kippah or a Star of David necklace, they will be treated as white.
But a thousand years of history have informed Jews that they are most certainly not “white,” and in fact will always been on the menu of the oppressors, whoever they might be.
Glory b
@Ksmiami: No, too many people don’t want to vote for the party with the black people in it.
Democrats haven’t won a majority of the white vote since the passage of the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts.
Coincidence? I think not.
Glory b
@zhena gogolia: It has been tiresome and depressing.
hells littlest angel
@hitchhiker:I’m just doing my daily check to find out if the thug died while I slept.
I did that literally every day from 1/20/17 to 1/20/21. What a fucking awful routine it was.
Glory b
@Professor Bigfoot: Sally, I agree.
Someone mentioned Pritzker, a liberal, white billionaire who’s been a successful governor. He and Mark Cuban are the two who can call out their fellow rich guys on their b***sh**.
Matt McIrvin
@Professor Bigfoot: #1 offender: “working class” = “WHITE working class”
LAC
@Professor Bigfoot: Preach…
Perhaps we should focus on that list of “messengers”
🙄
Ryan
One issue we might consider, and I know the Pod Save America folks trigger some, but one thing they consistently emphasize, is that we’re the weird ones. Most people aren’t sorted on politics as consistently ideologically as we are. I think that’s worth considering.
John S.
@Professor Bigfoot:
Nice to see you’re still an expert on the Jewish experience.
I would wonder how you would take it if someone who could never possibly know what it’s like to be a a black man started pontificating about the black experience, but I don’t have to because I’ve seen how you react to that.
taumaturgo
@New Deal democrat:
CEO pay is up 1,085% since 1978, while typical worker pay is up just 24%.
Professor Bigfoot
@John S.: I speak of what Jews have said to me.
Now if you think the Jewish experience is different from that, why don’t you tell me just that it actually is?
Professor Bigfoot
@John S.: Why don’t you tell me EXACTLY what I have wrong, rather than sniping like a white man?
Cheryl from Maryland
@Harrison Wesley: YES!! I visited Bacon’s Castle last fall with local college students as guides, focusing on Bacon’s Rebellion rather than 17th C architecture. The Rebellion was started by somewhat upper class white grifters who weren’t getting in on the government sponsored grift, later joined by poor whites and blacks. End result for settling the rebellion, some of the white leaders were punished, but mainly there were harsher laws against blacks. The guide and I had a nice chat about how there were so many parallels in later US history; the rest of the group was very subdued.
BlueGuitarist
@Matt McIrvin:
Yes!
also, usually
“working class” = “white male working class
And in lots of current discussion of “working class” it means “not college educated,” but that can be misleading. someone who doesn’t go to college because they will be working at dads car dealership/gym until they inherit it is not really working class.
taumaturgo
@wonkie:
What you describe is another meta mythology to be added to the many mythologies since the beginning of colonization: Elevating the founding fathers to be all-wise, brilliant and infallible, The American dream, which the brilliant George Carlin describe as one has to be asleep to believe it. City on a Hill or America exceptionalism which posits America on a superior moral grounds that allows for intruding in the affairs of other sovereign nations, The pioneer spirit of the western frontier which in reality was the murdering and stealing of native lands. Other prominent myths are, Lost Cause, Manifest Destiny, America neutrality in foreign affairs, Racial harmony and civil right progress.
Chacal Charles Calthrop
@West of the Rockies: she buried the lede but it’s in here:
https://balloon-juice.com/2025/01/17/whos-afraid-of-virginia-woolf
I see Dorothy Windsor got there ahead of me….but the more the good news the better.
Jinchi
@cmorenc: I don’t believe Afghanistan was an issue this year, despite members of the media pushing that narrative.
I do think that Gaza was a major issue for a significant part of the public especially in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
And I’m amazed that Biden/Harris didn’t have a better counter to the “are you better than four years ago” argument. We are better on virtually every metric, especially the economy.
I think a huge part of the fault goes to the media pushing “recession is just around the corner” nonsense for most of Biden’s term. Although now we’re seeing a lot more “Best economy in 50 years!” articles.
wonkie
@taumaturgo: Yes it’s there too. And it’s in Cinderella and Robin Hood and King Arthur and all kinds of variation on the tale of the savior, some with happy ever after endings, some with “You must carry on the cursade” endings, and some with “the fight is eternal” theme. I blame the cave men; I think it is a primitive left over from the days of territorial pack hunters who regarded other packs as threats and who had a need to believe that their own leaders would keep them safe.
Glory b
@Jinchi: I don’t think we can discount the fact that Republicans made significant inroads with Muslim voters, who were never staunch Dems anyway.
As I recall, they leaned Republican because of taxes before 9/11 and swung Dem afterwards in a protective move. The Michigan Advance had an article before 10/7 about Muslims meeting with Mike Flynn and QAnon, based on shared dislike of LGBTQ people, accompanying them disrupting school board meetings about trans issues, etc.
I’m in Western PA & and didn’t see much evidence that was a big issue here. It may have been different in the east.
But NJ has one of the largest Muslim populations in the US, never a word about them that I recall.
Melancholy Jaques
@Professor Bigfoot:
I think I’ve been saying it out loud since 1988 at least. My sense is that people are frustrated with hearing it because no one has a solution for it. I know I don’t.
Denali5
People were not comfortable voting for a Black woman. Cultural issues-Democrats supporting trans were a bridge too far. The Israel/Gaza conflict did not help.
Professor Bigfoot
@Melancholy Jaques: TBH, I’ve heard precious little engagement with the phenomenon on the part of white people.
That’s not to say NONE, but…
But if white people refuse to face up to this phenomenon squarely, there’s absolutely no way to even begin to find an answer— or even begin to find a way to live with it if we have to.
jonas
One side had a high-powered, 24/7 media Wurlitzer across cable, AM radio, and social media aimed at memory-holing and/or handwaving away all the disasters and criminal scandals of the first Trump term, including 1/6 and the classified docs theft, and the other side trying to get people to pay more attention to those things…didn’t. A few evening pundits on MSNBC don’t make up for the firehose of lies and propaganda coming from the other side.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Melancholy Jaques:
It’s also never helped that the creation and growth of Faux “News” into a white grievance propaganda mill has demonstrably made white people dumber and less informed, and they should be treated as such.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Professor Bigfoot:
Dems don’t have a messaging problem, white people still have a racism problem.
Another Scott
Meanwhile, … France24.com:
It was fairly warm today in NoVA (above 40F), so it was a good day for a winter rally. Godspeed to the folks in the trenches.
Monday will be different (high now expected to be around 26F)…
Best wishes,
Scott.
WTFGhost
You know, one thing that pisses me off is how people describe stuff as “more right-wing” when the real issue was not a specific rightward shift, but a shift in perceptions.
“Immigration is a BIG problem, we should do more about it,” is not a right-wing attitude *if* there is a perception that it’s a BIG problem. Ditto crime and the economy. I’m grateful for the “right-wing” versus the risible “conservative” but there needs to be a better way to describe “people, who assume good-faith information, are willing to do more, because of bad faith information.”
Melancholy Jaques
@Glory b:
Economic anxiety has been around for a long time, I guess.
Kay
@Glory b:
https://newjerseymonitor.com/2024/03/27/gov-murphy-calls-for-cease-fire-in-gaza-while-muslim-groups-call-for-a-boycott-of-murphy/
It was big in NJ. Not as big as Michigan because NJ isn’t a swing state, but you can see NJ’s large Muslim population in Cory Booker, who has made discrimination against Muslims one of his top issues.
You saw Chris Christie distance himself from bigotry against Muslims too, among Republicans. Pennsylvania has the fastest growing Muslim group.in the country. I don’t think it was determinative for Harris but it might have cost Casey his seat. It would matter in tight races.
Kay
@Glory b:
Here’s some on PA Muslims.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/betrayed-by-democrats-muslim-voters-in-battleground-pennsylvania-turn-to-other-options/ar-AA1tdOJV
pluky
@zhena gogolia: nor gender.
JoyceH
I just saw someone on television opine that Trump’s official inauguration portrait is meant to be intimidating. Uh. With both right eye and right side of mouth drooping, does anyone else think he looks like a stroke victim?
zhena gogolia
@JoyceH: I will never, ever be able to answer your question, because I will not allow my eyes to gaze upon it.
JoyceH
@zhena gogolia: act like you have. When they try to intimidate we express concern “Oh dear, is he okay?”
zhena gogolia
@JoyceH: 😂
Ksmiami
@Kay: they’re going to be so much better off with Trump in power/s
Starfish (she/her)
I am really enjoying cranky Jen Rubin talking about the report on the Donald Trump cases.
Starfish (she/her)
@Ksmiami: You are cheering harm coming to Muslims, and I want you to think about how many Muslim votes you think that is going to get for Democrats.
Professor Bigfoot
@Starfish (she/her): That’s not cheering it.
That’s recognizing what’s gonna happen despite all our best efforts.
When the “pro-Palestine” crew told Black Americans that we needed to vote against our own perceived best interests for the sake of a bunch of people on the other side of the world when the other candidate would be WORSE for those same Palestinians, I for one lost any concern for them.
We fucking tried.
“It’s above me now.”
Starfish (she/her)
@Professor Bigfoot: You are erasing pro-Palestinian Black folks, and Black Muslims in the way you are discussing this issue.
Professor Bigfoot
@Starfish (she/her): No, I’m not.
How many Black people, including Black Muslims, do you actually KNOW?
I’m telling you as a Black person who knows Black people that *we are not sacrificing our rights here for people over there.*
And those of you who say we should… will not like our reponse.
Kay
@Ksmiami:
Every ethnic and/or religious group in this country makes political demands and uses political pressure. ONLY Arabs and/or Muslims are not permitted to.
The United States and Israel dropped 70,000 tons of bombs on two million trapped people. We killed at least 55k civilians, violated our own laws and every single “law of war” we have ever signed on to and leveled Gaza. 90% of Gazans is are displaced or dead. Their entire medical and educational infrastructure is gone. There is no ethnic or religious group in this country who would not have been ENRAGED if the US had done that to them.
There’s not much more that Trump can do to them. They lost everything. Every single time a Democrat wagged their fingers at Arab Americans and said “Trump will be worse” that Arab American KNEW that Democrat did not give a shit about them. There is no “worse” than ethnic cleansing and bombing hospitals and 20,000 dead children. Saying that to them is insulting.
Kay
@Starfish (she/her):
They believe its worse than what we know. They believe there was a deal on May 31st and the US deliberately allowed it to wither and die because the US was in favor of leveling Gaza completely. So that’s like 10,000 or so additional dead civilians – whatever the total dead between May of 24 and tomorrow, additional. That’s what the two journalists were screaming at Blinken during his last press conference. The May 31 deal and why the US didn’t pursue it.
LAC
@Professor Bigfoot: thank you for trying. Here’s what the strategy is going forward at BJ for some of our “allies”:
1. Speak for, through, and over us.
2. Deflect – is there a poll that can be dug up to focus on something else?
3. Messaging- is there someone “nice” to translate the gobblegook we have been using?
Yay, 2025…
Gloria DryGarden
@jonas: your description of the huge media imbalance is apt. That gap is a huge part of what went wrong. I’m glad to see more discussion of how well remedy this.
Meanwhile, I think I need a whole course on American thought movements as well as on political messaging and it’s outcomes. There’s a great depth of background knowledge, that many people have here. I think it would help me, but also would help move a lot of the norm ie folks who avoid news, or get theirs from the Fox nonsense bubble.
I wonder how to get all these things, including race, religion, gender, civil rights, into much wider public awareness and discourse. I wish I’d had courses on all of it, including the layers of savior myths, in high school.
i also wish I understood more about how corporations are jamming peoples BS meters.
I f i don’t get it, let’s assume there are tons of low news consuming folks who also would benefit from a deeper awareness and understanding. Not sure google can help; I’ve seen discussions on bj that google’s answers aren’t to be trusted.
All I can think is to get our kind of thinkers to be advisors to writers of tv shows and film.
Gloria DryGarden
@LAC: i wish I understood your 3 points. Could you expand this, with a few examples?
i think you’re trying to tie up some loose ends, be validating, and aim things in a productive direction, but it’s just not clear to me. Maybe it’s clear to everyone else.
strange visitor (from another planet)
@Kay: what the fuck is wrong with you?
how many fucking times are you going to say the US is bombing gaza?
seriously, you’re such a goddamned asshole. how many fucking times are you gonna tell that fucking lie?
maybe come up with a new one, for variety’s sake, you fucking dick.
strange visitor (from another planet)
@Kay: why does the government of gaza need conditions to surrender?
oh yah. because they still wanna be running gaza, despite 20 years of failing the people under their aegis
LAC
@Gloria DryGarden: i am not trying to do anything more than to sardonically sum up the exhausting mindset that Professor Bigfoot has valiantly been arguing against in this thread.
randy khan
The argument about polls versus registration is a variation on a point that has seemed relevant to me since I saw the raw vote numbers, which is that it’s not hard to see that Dem voters didn’t turn out the way they did in 2020. Why that happened is a question to which I do not have a compelling answer, although I have some not-yet-fully-formed thoughts.