Serious question for the assembled: while both are highly unlikely, which one is the more plausible of the two, Hillary Clinton carrying an Appalachian blue dog red state like Kentucky/West Virginia in November 2016, or Rand Paul winning over enough support from the black community to take a close purple state like Ohio/Colorado?
Open thread.
debbie
There’s a third more likely long shot: Me winning the lottery.
SP
How about Arkansas?
different-church-lady
The answer you seek come directly after the colon in your first sentence.
rp
HRC’s chances of taking WV are several orders of magnitude greater than Rand’s chances of taking Ohio or Colorado with the support of the black community.
jackmac
Neither scenario is plausible.
But the Rand Paul “winning over enough support from the black community to take a close purple state like Ohio/Colorado” is outright laughable.
NCSteve
2008 Hillary could have taken Kentucky. I don’t think 2016 income inequality worrying Hillary can take it from Rand.
dedc79
Maybe I’m just not so up to speed on Colorado’s demographics, but I have a hard time believing the black vote is a major driver of statewide elections.
Frankensteinbeck
The first. Some red states are less red than they look, and the demographic timer is real. It’s still pretty damn unlikely she’d get Kentucky, but Rand Paul will get a significant amount of the African-American vote just as soon as he dedicates himself clearly and sincerely* to actually fixing all the problems of racial discrimination in America. That would, as Terry Pratchett put it, involve a radical rethinking of the concept of time.
*And I mean sincere. Honest and true. Throwing out a few platitudes about how the GOP needs to stop being racist, then dropping lines about how using drones to kill criminals robbing gas stations would be a good idea does not count. Black people are not fucking stupid, but any white person who thinks Rand looks like anything but a stone cold racist is.
David Hunt
Since Rand Paul will never get the GOP nomination, HRC taking KY or WV is vastly more likely.
boatboy_srq
@jackmac: Exactly. Especially after his “taking the train through Baltimore (or was it taking the Baltimore through Train? I still can’t get that sorted) and thanking Gawd it didn’t stop” tweet.
Chyron HR
@Frankensteinbeck:
He can do that, as long as it doesn’t require his train to stop there.
samiam
I’m already sick of reading this BS from the left and right. 18more months of this…yee haw.
WTF are you people even bothering with Rand Paul much less mentioning him in the same breathe as Hillary.
A better comparison would be to talk about Bernie Sanders vs Rand Paul. Both have an equal chance of being nominated (less than zero).
Ryan
Hillary no doubt. But really, can we not ask these types of questions for 9 more months? 9 months is plenty of time for campaign 2016.
Frankensteinbeck
It occurs to me that a large portion of the GOP voting base and almost all of the national news media believe Rand Paul looks really moderate and reasonable on race issues. Case fucking closed.
gf120581
Hillary easily. Not just because Rand’s appeal with blacks is nil (especially if he keeps making stupid comments like his train remark) but because he won’t be the nominee.
Knowbody
No offense but isn’t this the exact same stupidity you’re always attacking the media for?
Jesus who the hell cares?
boatboy_srq
@Frankensteinbeck:
Much more accurate. Especially after yesterday.
Keith G
That’s a bit like asking which of the following would be more likely, me living to the ripe old age of a hundred and five (that’s equivalent to the Hillary question) or me living to the ripe older age of a hundred and eight (the Rand Paul victory) .
Peale
@rp: Yep. If he takes those states it would be because the voter base looked more like 2014 than 2012.
scav
That single first word got funnier and funnier the deeper I moved into the sentences.
japa21
@Frankensteinbeck: Compared to the rest of the clown car, he does come off that way. Which is more damning of the rest of the clown car than it is praise for him.
In regards to the original question, since the Paul choice is predicted on the black vote, then it goes to Hillary.
However, in terms of actually winning Colorado, his chances may be better than Hillary’s of winning KY or WV. Lot of libertarian pot smokers in CO who can’t see the rest of Paul’s policies through the haze.
That being said, he isn’t getting the nomination, so it is a moot point.
catclub
@David Hunt: Beat me to it.
Frankensteinbeck
@japa21:
I’m whiter than Ronald McDonald, and when Rand Paul said that he thought the Civil Rights Act shouldn’t have been passed,even I heard the unspoken “And when did blacks stop saying ‘Yes, Massa’ anyway? That was so nice and polite.”
Hunter Gathers
Paul, obviously. His ‘Vote for me, you stupid niggers!’ message is guaranteed to garner a higher share of the black vote than even Obama. If he combines that message with ‘Vote for me, you dumb bitches!’, he’ll win all 50 states.
Betty Cracker
What japa21 said; no way Paul wins the black community’s vote, but he could sway some youngish white male Obama voters who are dumb enough to fall for Paul’s fake libertarian shtick.
ETA: I wonder how big that demographic is, anyway? (Youngish white male Obama voters who are susceptible to faux-libertarian posturing, I mean). I think the group gets more attention than its numbers warrant, probably because some of its members are grotesquely rich and even more are somewhat media savvy….
Karen in GA
I could see Paul getting the idiot bro vote.
catclub
Are there any other “Appalachian blue dog red states” outside of Kentucky and West Virginia?
Maine? Isn’t red. Indiana? Isn’t Appalachian. Georgia? Isn’t really blue dog. NC – Mostly not Appalachian.
Virginia – Clinton is already likely to win there.
I guess NC is the most likely. But no one calls it Appalachian. Also, no one goes there any more, it is too popular.
boatboy_srq
@boatboy_srq: BLEEPing tags. @Zandar @top – please feel free to edit (change should be obvious).
Sherparick
I could see Rand Paul winning Colorado as enough libertarian white people after all bought Corey Gardner’s BS to put him in the Senate.
boatboy_srq
@catclub: Maine isn’t especially Appalachian either. TN maybe – although given how deeply red it’s become that would be quite a trick.
catclub
@Sherparick: 2014 electorate. Not comparable.
sparrow
@Betty Cracker: There are a distressing number of female white dipshits who lean libertarian too. A couple of my college friends (white chicks, one Jewish) voted Obama over McCain/Mittsy but would probably vote for Paul over Hillary. Note that while I don’t agree with them, they do vote along who is most likely to start a pointless war or wars.
kilgore trout
More zaniness from Texas
Governor sends out state guard to watch the US military and operation Jade Helm
his twitter page is a riot of paranoia.
https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX
Chris
For Rand Paul to even be the Republican candidate in the first place would require a series of events so inconceivable (yes, I DO know what it means) that it’s almost too absurd to comment on.
Maybe Ultron or Samaritan will exterminate every other politician in America over the next week, leaving no one but Rand standing. Then he MIGHT have a shot.
Betty Cracker
@sparrow: Good point. But if hawk vs. dove is the only consideration, I’m not sure how they’d justify voting for Paul over HRC. She’s too hawkish for my taste (which is why I supported Obama over her in aught-eight), but for all Paul’s noises about non-intervention, he’s all up in Netanyahu’s junk along with the neocons.
It’s a moot point, though. Paul won’t be the nominee.
Cervantes
If that’s your idea of a “serious question” …
Chris
@Betty Cracker:
Look at the polls. How much of a national following have either of the Pauls ever had when push comes to shove and the votes are counted? Practically none.
The Paulbots’ cult following is highly motivated, it’s got a lot of techies and college students so it has more of a presence than its numbers would suggest. Also doesn’t hurt that the mainstream media, with its “center right nation” mantra, is always far more ready to believe in and take seriously the possibility of a populist uprising from the right than one from the left, and gives the Pauls attention accordingly.
But when push comes to shove, their popular base has always turned out to be meaningless.
Frankensteinbeck
@Betty Cracker:
Because if they’re that shallow in their voting priorities, they’ll probably believe Rand Paul’s occasional statement of isolationism and ignore when he says the opposite.
Chris
@sparrow:
Tell them Ron Paul’s reaction to 9/11 was to call for “issuing letters of marque and reprisals,” which means hiring a privateer (in XXI century speak, Blackwater). The war would still have happened, a ton of Iraqis and Afghans would still have died, and American taxpayers would still have footed the bill.
Punchy
Anyone surprised that the Permanent Victims are threatening civil disobedience when the SCOTUS hands them the butthurt?
Amir Khalid
No one seems to be reporting on whose campaign is putting together the best organisation, which is a pity. The Republican candidates will never run out of nonsense, and keeping track of it is always amusing. But the one who lasts the longest, who gets to take the ring in September 2016 against Hillary (or whomever) will be the one with the best (or least-bad) organisation. I expect Rand Paul’s candidacy to last roughly as long as his dad’s did last time.
Betty Cracker
@Punchy: Jaysus, what a bunch of crybabies! They can refuse to get gay married all they want. What other types of civil disobedience do they plan? They were remarkably vague on that, aside from refusing to bake gay-cakes, etc.
Germy Shoemangler
@Hunter Gathers:
Funniest thing I’ve read today.
God be Ceiling Cat! Has anyone actually looked at his son’s mugshot? Scared the shit out of me. I know that fucker in my bones, as Ralph Steadman would have said.
Ajabu
Well, I just took a quick poll of my family (African American & African Caribbean) and the response was generally “who the fuck is Rand Paul?” so I seriously doubt the numbers are there but YMMV.
And he has as much chance of getting the nomination as Ben Carson does, anyway.
Incidentally, Carson polls lower in the family and they know who HE is.
sparrow
@Betty Cracker: Yeah, that’s what I wanted to know. Would they keep referring to Adam as Steve’s BOYFRIEND instead of HUSBAND? ooh how brave.
Germy Shoemangler
@Amir Khalid:
It’s always amusing, but my amusement is undermined by my suspicion that any one of them could win the election.
I learned my lesson after laughing at Ronnie in 1979 and GWB in 1999.
They’re dead serious.
Botsplainer
Rand paul is more likely to siphon off some tech glibertarians and anti-war leftists because drones and reasons.
japa21
@Betty Cracker: I particularly like how they compare their civil disobedience to that promoted by MLK Jr. Of course, MLK Jr was working to expand rights and these folks are working to deprive rights, but go for it.
Cervantes
@Botsplainer:
What’s the current basis for this belief?
SatanicPanic
Hillary might win Kentucky. I mean, it’s not likely, but you never know what kind of clown the Republicans will nominate.
Sherparick
@Amir Khalid: I must admit that am fascinated/horrified by Scott Walker and I believe that of all the Republicans, he is the one best situated to pull off the Sean Trende tragedy and win an election based on getting 65 to 70 percent of the white vote. From his point of view, and the view of his maters, not having a college degree is a benefit, not a problem. It makes him a true “man of the people,” like Willie Stark, but without the charm. The Baltimore and Ferguson issues play to a strength since he has risen to power in Wisconsin by manipulating the racial and class resentments and bitterness of white middle and working classes of Southeast and rural Wisconsin, for the benefit of literally a handful of the richest people in the state (John Menard, Diane Hendricks, the Johnson family, and out of state, the Koch brothers). See Tom Edsall’s piece in the Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/29/opinion/thomas-b-edsall-repositioning-scott-walker.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=c-column-top-span-region®ion=c-column-top-span-region&WT.nav=c-column-top-span-region
Villago Delenda Est
@Karen in GA: The idiot bro vote is his to lose.
Josie
@Amir Khalid: That sounds like a reasonable argument. I would be interested to know who you think will have the best organization.
Roger Moore
@japa21:
Why would a pot smoker in Colorado (or Washington, Oregon, or any other state that’s legalized it) care about Rand Paul’s opinion on pot? They can already buy and smoke it legally, so he’s only offering them something they already have. Pot smokers in states where it’s not currently legal seem much more likely to care.
MomSense
All I know is that I do not want to hear even one dog whistle from HRC. To be honest, I have not forgotten nor forgiven some of the really shitty things she said in 2007-08 but am willing to vote for her anyway over any of the Republicans.
If winning Kentucky means dog whistling, let’s just skip it. Obama proved you can win the presidency with a coalition that does not require us to be assholes.
Tenar Darell
Sorry if I’m repeating what has been previously said. I skipped everyone else’s comments to post first and compare mine to other’s opinions. Basically, I want to see if I picked up on the same things.
So, if I actually believed that Rand Paul would make it through the Republican Primary, and I don’t, then he lost the election yesterday. He could do all the outreach to African Americans that he wants from now on, and they’d shut his voice out because he went to his default mode of property rights before human rights. Add on the foolish nod to “bad parenting” coming shortly after his 22 year old son got his third DUI, he probably turned off any parent listening who might have been interested in his criminal justice reform stances. He basically showed that he doesn’t care that other parents actually might be more concerned about whether their children survive getting arrested than property damage. And then he underlined it by critiquing their parenting skills, twisting it up nicely in a memorable and quotable package. It’s the Pauls’ 5 minute rule, 4.57, 4.58, 4.59
ETA Hell, I forgot about the train comment!
socraticsilence
I don’t think Rand will recieve a significant portion of the African American vote (in this case significant is more than say 10%) unless Hillary does something dumb like actively running away from and/or criticizing Obama regardless of his efforts. Now, if Hillary does to Obama what Gore did to Clinton in 2000, all bets are off.
Mandalay
@Punchy: I’m not sure how many hearts and minds they are going to win by writing:
Villago Delenda Est
@Mandalay: That’s one of those “with all due respect” sort of things where any respect is nullified and then some by what follows.
Villago Delenda Est
@Chris: Never mind that “letters of marque and reprisal” were essentially taken off the table in the fucking 19th Century, by mutual agreement of the major powers at the time.
Roger Moore
@Villago Delenda Est:
Is there ever a case where that isn’t true? Nobody says “with all due respect” unless they’re going to say something disrespectful, just as they don’t say “just saying” unless they’re trying to imply something more.
Betty Cracker
@socraticsilence: I’ll be interested to see how HRC handles the TPP thing vis-a-vis Obama. She’s vulnerable on the TPP question because she was involved in crafting it as SOS, but it clashes with the middle class jobs and wealth inequality message she’s pushing now.
Will she denounce the TPP and say she was just pushing Obama’s bad policy because at the time she was his employee? It’s definitely going to be an issue, especially now that Bernie Sanders is in the race. If HRC runs away from PBO on TPP, I think she’ll be doing the right thing.
MCA1
Agreed with japa21. The answer to the question as posed is Hillary, because of the infinitely higher likelihood she’s running in the general election. If you presuppose Paul were to miraculously become the GOP nominee, I think he’d have a much easier chance in a place like Colorado, where the fundies of Colorado Springs and points west could combine with a lot of under 45 don’t tread on me susceptible pseudo-libertarians who deep down probably don’t want to vote for a woman, and turn the state red for a Presidential race.
The shame is that an actual progressive Democrat should, in a different environment, have a significantly better chance in a place like Kentucky or West Virginia. But we’re unlikely to have a particularly populist nominee, and we certainly don’t have the right environment anymore. The economic message of the liberal wing should resonate in places that have been ravaged by polluting, anti-union, dead end industry and been left with nothing. But over time Democrats have let that part of the country slip totally away from them and into the clutches of the bitterness and inter-caste resentment that benefits the GOP. They won’t even listen to a left of center message now, because they’ve been so trained to label it soshulizm and un-American, and to think that their religion is under siege and someone wants their firearms.
Mandalay
@Roger Moore:
I’m guessing that this is a rich field for cognitive linguists.
My mother was from Virginia and things were obviously not going to go well if any conversation opened with “I love you/him/her dearly…” or “We need to talk…”.
low-tech cyclist
Actually, “Rand Paul winning over enough support from the black community to take a close purple state like Ohio/Colorado” is a reasonable possibility, with ‘enough’ being defined as zero.
Remember that before Obama carried both states twice, Dubya did the same.
But Hillary’s chances of winning KY or WV are negligible.
Cervantes
@Mandalay:
I give them 7 out of 10 for chutzpah:
8 out of 10 was attainable had they stood up for Loving v. Virginia.
Benw
I don’t care about either one.
SANDERS 2016
Bobby B
KY and WV will obey their Masters on Fox News.
WaterGirl
@MomSense: I feel exactly the same way. So much so that I could have written that myself, if only I were a better writer! thanks for expressing it so well and so succinctly.
Mandalay
This nugget of drivel on Baltimore pefectly encapsulates why so many people have reservations about Hillary Clinton:
It’s blantantly phony, crafted pablum. Corrupt police are killing black men, yet she wants to go on about being a grandmother, and make it all about her.
God spare us from her vile swill for the next 18 months.
Tenar Darell
@Betty Cracker: They will make it hard for gay couples to work, or live, or do anything which might actually require an anti-discrimination statute to enforce.
I believe this is the same rump that implemented massive resistance in the 1950’s after all. I imagine that they can still make things really difficult, like by closing court clerks offices or not requiring court clerks to perform marriages.* Even if the Republican party finally fractures between the business and the religious wings, and the companies have non-discrimination policies.
* I bring up massive resistance for a reason. There are some really good arguments that it lasted just long enough to do its job. The busing decisions of the 1970’s, particularly Milliken v. Bradley in 1974 which limited busing across district lines, created the necessary opening for the resegregation of public schools on a geographic basis. I don’t know if they could do the same to couples, but I don’t want to find out.
Brachiator
Paul could sponsor a libertarian marijuana giveaway and he would still not get any support from the black community.
But then again, there is not even an alternate universe in which Rand Paul will be the GOP nominee.
Paul in KY
@Betty Cracker: Bigger number than black voters who decide to vote for Rand.
catclub
@Betty Cracker: Check out Andrew Tobias. He thinks TPP is worth it because it will fix problems in NAFTA. I did not know that.
http://andrewtobias.com/column/
The fact that NAFTA was a Clinton thing just complicates matters.
Paul in KY
@Sherparick: Ayn Rand seems to like Colorado in her ‘Atlas Shrugged’ tome.
Cervantes
@Mandalay:
If that’s not a parody, it’s remarkable; whereas if it is a parody, I look forward to the next draft.
Paul in KY
@Ajabu: That is a ringing Rand endorsement! ‘Better than Ben Carson, when unknown!’
Paul in KY
@SatanicPanic: She wouldn’t win against Rand, but if say, Satanum, was the nominee, I think she’d take the state.
Kay
Ohio is a terrible state for Rand Paul.
Any small increase in the AA vote would be more than offest by the fact that Republicans need older voters in Ohio.
We always look at it the other way-Democrats need younger voters, but I htiink it’s helpful to stand in the other guy’s shoes- what does the GOP candidate need?
Obama also did well with women in Ohio, and that’s both a plus for Clinton (she’ll equal Obama there or better) AND a negative for Rand Paul.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/11/06/ohio-election-results/1658389/
Paul in KY
@Tenar Darell: It would be Rand’s opponent’s job to point all that out. Right now, many voters are not thinking 2016 race at all.
askew
Both are impossible. Paul won’t be the nominee. It will be Walker. I’d hope Hillary would have learned her lesson after chasing the “hard working” white voters in 2008. All she did was end up alienating the Obama coalition which she needs to win in 2016.
I am only interested in 2 things about Hillary right now.
How long will she go before answering one tough question. She’s avoided the media since her campaign launch. She’s only done a handful of events with friendly, pre-screened audiences. She hasn’t faced 1 tough question and if she gets a tough question is she capable of a substantive answer?
What is her stand on TPP fast track? This is being debated in Congress right now and she hasn’t said anything about it. She’s said vague nonsense about possible supporting the TPP but that didn’t address fast track. It’s a simple yes or no answer, does she support it?
Zinsky
I think it’s more likely that pink and yellow winged monkeys fly out of Donald Trump’s asshole than Hillary taking a true Southern State!
Marc McKenzie
@Mandalay: Yeah…nice that you throw s**t at Hillary–but what do Warren and Sanders think? What did they say?
And what Hillary said is still miles better than anything the GOP Klown Kar has said. But nice for you to ignore them and just keep throwing the s**t at Hillary, because in your mind, she’s worse.
We are so f***ked.
Paul in KY
@Cervantes: Not the best wording there. Sorta like Sen. Kerry’s ‘Who among us does not like NASCAR?’ comment.
Keep it short & simple.
Paul in KY
@Zinsky: You would have to think he has one or two of those poor creatures up there, though.
Mandalay
A gay Republican who votes against gay rights gets busted:
Mandalay
@Marc McKenzie:
I didn’t say she was worse than anyone else. I said her comment was calculated and fraudulent, and it was. If you don’t like it then go pound some sand. And if you want to defend her comment let’s hear it.
But if you want to keep up your Clinton-is-above-criticism schtick you can go fuck yourself, asshole.
askew
@Mandalay:
That’s all we are going to get from her. She gave a speech today where she mentioned some policy specifics that were the opposite views she held in the 1990s. She whole-heartedly supported Bill Clinton’s tough on crime views in the 1990s including more prisons and 3-strike law. But, it is impossible to find a Democrat from the 1990s who wasn’t tough on crime. She still supports the death penalty which is a deal-breaker for me. But, all I care about is what she did about crime and racial profiling and police brutality when she had the chance in Congress?
The Dem I support, O’Malley has a mixed record in Baltimore. He initiated zero tolerance laws. But, he is also credited by AA leaders for implementing policies that that reduced police-involved shootings and excessive force complaints. He doubled the # of minority police officers and he reduced crime in Baltimore by over 42% and brought the murder rate way down. As Governor, he repealed the death penalty and commuted remaining sentences. He also stood up to ICE and refused to let Baltimore jails hold undocumented Americans for them when they weren’t charged with any crimes. At least with O’Malley I can make an informed opinion based on what’s he done. With Hillary, all I have is her latest words which almost always contradict what she said previously.
askew
@Betty Cracker:
I think if she runs away from the Obama WH on TPP/TPA, he’ll cut her loose. The WH is running cover for Hillary on a lot of State scandals right now. Her violating her signed agreement with Obama admin on foreign donors, her violating Obama e-mail policy. And Hillary does not want to get into a situation where she is running against the WH. Lots of AA voters remember her behavior in 2008 and if she starts running against Obama and the WH goes after her, it is going to get ugly.
shortstop
All I know is that Ted Cruz is the new Reagan and that Ben Carson and Allen West are far more appropriate “leaders for the black people” than Obama. My husband’s third cousin from southern Indiana who just discovered Facebook would not lie to me.
Paul in KY
@shortstop: I look forward to hearing more pearls of wisdom from your Hoosier loser.
shortstop
askew, just curious: Do you lurk constantly waiting for threads in which you can share your fresh thoughts on Hillary while maintaining a steady lack of interest in every other conversation? Or do you post in other threads under another nym? Not that it’s any of my business, but it cracks me up.
mai naem mobile
Don’t know.much.about.Ky currently.except.for.Mitch.winning.and Kynect.working. I’m wondering about.WVa.with.what.Johns.posted about.the legislature. Randman.- ummm No. Randman.and.Colorado – hell no.because of.the.Hispanics though not.blacks
shortstop
@Paul in KY: She’s an enthusiastic political observer, and makes a change from my cracker stepmama-in-law, whose intellectual stylings I’ve shared with y’all on several occasions.
Betty Cracker
@askew: I don’t think there’s a chance in hell Obama will cut HRC loose if she runs away from TPP. PBO is a politician, so he understands political expediency. He is a Democrat, so he wants to promote the interests of the Democratic Party. And he cares about his legacy, so he’ll want to be followed by a president who won’t undo the good he was able to accomplish during his time. If she comes out against a trade deal that many in his own party oppose to tack to her left, he’ll probably see it as the political posturing that it is, posturing of a type that he himself has engaged in a thousand times.
MomSense
@WaterGirl:
Thanks. I think we just have to commit to being an inclusive and respectful party.
Cervantes
@shortstop:
Has she by any chance nominated “far more appropriate leaders of the female people”?
Jade
I have never met a single black person who like either Paul. Most see the as grifters. He could rent the Republican rental black people who would publicly support him and vote for who they really liked.
Kay
@askew:
I tink it’s much more complicated for Clinton than that.
In this state, she will have Sherrod Brown opposing it, along with Ted Strickland. The two most high-profile Democrats in the state. In addition! She will have Portman either laying low and dodging or lying about his position, where he could then conceivably end up to the LEFT of Hillary Clinton on trade if she supports.
It’s a mess for her.
It’s interesting because it makes Sherrod Brown really important, which of course he should be :)
He’s the only one who can fix it for her.
Paul in KY
@shortstop: Bring those comments on!
Turgidson
@Kay:
The cynic in me kinda thinks the public dust-up between Obama and the progressive wing is a kabuki dance that will allow Hillary to position herself with the progressives against TPP, making a high-profile break with the Obama administration on an issue you would have thought she’d be aligned with them on. So far she’s sounded more like she’s running for Obama’s 3rd term than anyone expected and I suspect there will be a few agreed-upon or expected, orchestrated “Hillary distances herself” moments. This could be the first.
But something about how personally Obama is taking the argument, and has made it in his responses, makes me think it’s a real, mostly unscripted fight and Hillary is on her own in staking out a position.
askew
@Kay:
I think you overstate Brown’s importance. Yes, he’s important in Ohio but outside of there no one cares. And Hillary can’t win Ohio without AA supporters which she won’t get if she turns on Obama.
Also, I am not sure she is a good enough politician to pull off the flip flop on TPP that she’d need to do. She’s credited herself with helping to craft the agreement and now she’s going to come out and say she doesn’t support? Bill might be able to get away with that. Not sure Hillary can.
askew
@Turgidson:
Yeah, Obama is taking Democratic opposition to TPP much more personally than he’s taken any opposition during his entire presidency. That’s why I think he won’t be ok with Hillary betraying him on TPP/TPA. I think if she came out against Iran deal or any other deal he’d shrug and move on. But for whatever reason he is really invested in TPP/TPA, which is weird because it is a shit sandwich and I can’t see why anyone would want it enacted. And I say that as a person who has approved of about 85% of what Obama’s done.
shortstop
@Paul in KY: Sure, it’s all fun and games for YOU–you’re not sitting at the table with us on holidays! ;)
Betty Cracker
@Turgidson: Or maybe it’s that eleventy dimensional chess we’re always hearing about!
boatboy_srq
@Tenar Darell: Something tells me that the “integration” of the 90s and 00s may be about due for a sharp reversal – as LGBT communities stop doing business with wingnuts and set up their own equivalent enterprises, and as Xtian businesspeople start turning away more business. There are a lot of florists, restaurateurs, nightclub owners et al who are about to see their earnings drop when the “No H0m0” signs start going up. I could be persuaded that being “part of society at large” might have been premature: places like the East Village, The Castro, WeHo, and even GaYbor have a place in modern society that Rosie’s Xtian Flowers just can’t fill, and there’s too much “Cats and Parrots” energy in putting LGBT businesses and Xtian businesses side-by-side.
Ben Cisco
That word “serious” you keep using – clearly you’re not clear on the meaning.
Of COURSE it would be Hillary.
There aren’t enough black Confederates to help Goldbug Jr. win a damned thing – very much more likely that Hillary can win votes from those so repulsed by President Obama’s melanin content that they gladly voted for a CONVICTED and INCARCERATED criminal.
As for Paulie, Soul Asylum got it right:
Runaway train never going back
Wrong way on a one way track
Seems like I should be getting somewhere
Somehow I’m neither here nor there
Bought a ticket for a runaway train
Like a madman laughin’ at the rain
Little out of touch, little insane
Just easier than dealing with the pain
Kay
@askew:
The Clinton-Obama fight on trade is really complicated. They went head to head on it here in ’08.- charges. countercharges, Obama’s trade policy director traveled to Canada WHILE Obama was savaging Clinton on NAFTA and the Clinton camp leaked that the guy went to Canada to tell them that Obama didn’t mean any of it on NAFTA. Ted Strickland was even involved! He did the crazy press conference w/Clinton.
I also don’t agree that AA voters abandon Clinton if she opposes Obama on a policy issue.
Cervantes
@askew:
Really?
Kay
@askew:
Every prominent Democrat in the state has “turned on” Obama on the trade deal. I just don’t think it’s a dealbreaker for either side. If it were, Strickland “turning on” Obama would lose AA support too,and so would Brown.
Kay
@askew:
I just think you’re making it too narrow. Democrats need AA voters to win Ohio. That is true. It has always been true. Trade has always been a hot issue in Ohio. That is true and has always been true.
Kay
@askew:
I’m a Bernie Sanderite in the primary, if he’s on the ballot, then I’ll vote for the nominee in the general.
I love primaries :)
Brachiator
@Kay:
The problem is that Clinton really doesn’t have AA voters, yet. This is not necessarily a huge thing.
That is to say, Clinton has the African American vote unless she fvcks things up and alienates them. And she can alienate people big time by playing “Obama who?” games. The same may be true of Latino voters.
People still remember some of the shit she and her husband pulled in 2008.
Matt McIrvin
Rand Paul’s core supporters are comfortable white guys who consider him a different kind of Republican in some increasingly vague sense. I think he loses even these people the more he acts like a plain ordinary Republican. Some of them were supporting him solely because they thought he was the real antiwar candidate, but he’s not even that.
The Republican nominee will be either Jeb Bush or Scott Walker. Marco Rubio is a likely VP candidate for Walker.
There was a time when Hillary Clinton could have carried some of the Appalachian red states. I think that time is past; the country is just too polarized. If she wins, her map is going to look a lot like Obama’s; if she loses, it will look a lot like Gore’s or Kerry’s. Any Democrat is going to carry the states we think of as blue states, and some number of the ones we think of as swing states. Obama initially looked like a map-changer too, but his most surprising wins (Indiana and North Carolina, one district in Nebraska) were the ones he couldn’t hold in 2012.
Ben Cisco
@Brachiator:
People who wave this shit away simply don’t believe it. Full stop.
Brachiator
@Ben Cisco:
Right now, we only have polling and opinion slinging. Some of the early primaries may wake some people up.
PST
Clinton beat Obama in West Virginia and Kentucky much worse than McCain did. I can imagine a huge split among white men and women that might possibly bring her over the top if 2016 is otherwise a good year. There is a level of longstanding support among the kind of white women who aren’t being swayed much by the latest news and most current issues.
Cacti
After Rand Paul’s dogwhistle visit with Laura Ingraham, I can’t imagine he’s going to win any significant percentage of the African American vote.
FlipYrWhig
@Paul in KY:
Which IIRC was made up by Maureen Dowd, not actually spoken by Kerry.
shortstop
@PST: You’re comparing the results of a Democratic primary to those of a general election?
West Virginia is never going blue again.
Cervantes
@FlipYrWhig:
What Kerry did say:
askew
@Kay:
I love primaries too. It’s where the interesting policy debates happen. Last time was the first time in my life we had a real race by the time Minnesota got to vote. Proud that we went so overwhelmingly for Obama.
I normally go to Iowa to do GOTV work there because the race is over by the time Minnesota rolls around.
If O’Malley runs, I’ll have to dust off my orange hat and go down to Iowa again.
kc
which one is the more plausible of the two, Hillary Clinton carrying an Appalachian blue dog red state like Kentucky/West Virginia in November 2016, or Rand Paul winning over enough support from the black community to take a close purple state like Ohio/Colorado?
The former.
I don’t think Rand Paul is gonna get the nomination anyway.
Betty Cracker
@Brachiator & @Ben Cisco: I don’t think anyone disputes that HRC would totally lose the black / brown community if she started talking about “hard-working white people” or went out of her way to distance herself from Obama across the board.
But that’s almost certainly not gonna happen. The question is are minority voters so invested in Obama and suspicious of Clinton that they won’t tolerate any deviation from the Obama agenda at all, even on an issue that divides Democrats like trade? I don’t think that’s the case — at least, not with enough voters to make it a real issue — but I guess we’ll see soon enough.
Kay
@askew:
I like O’Malley but I tihnk his weakness in his own state last time out is a big problem, particularly because it;s such a blue state. I think he’ll have to explain that if he gets traction.
Brachiator
@Betty Cracker:
The mother of a close friend of mine would have voted for Obama 10 times had she been able. She is loyal to the Democrats, but she is old enough to remember when the Republican Party was not entirely hostile to black people’s interests.
She shocked my friend by saying that she would not vote for Hillary. I am not jumping up and down announcing this as a trend, and do not know why the mother said this. But I do find it curious and surprising.
And it is not about being invested in Obama and suspicious of Hillary that is the issue. Many voters (I think of an Armenian friend here) love Obama the way that people loved JFK and still love Bill Clinton. But many black voters felt insulted by Hillary and Bill by some of their 2008 BS. Democrats ignore or minimize this at their peril.
Now, I give Hillary more than the benefit of the doubt here. And I hope that she develops the political and campaign savvy to deal with this should it become a larger issue. Otherwise, she may may stumble despite any sincere desire to keep the party united.
As an aside, opposition to the trade proposal is nonsense that ideological purists want to use to nurse their permanent grudge against Obama. Some pretend to be devoted to labor, but any issues with the trade proposal could be fixed by politicians with half a brain and a third of the political will to deal with any perceived defects.
Betty Cracker
@Brachiator: You raised some thoughtful points in the first part of your post, but your last paragraph is unmitigated bullshit. So I offer you 80% of my thanks for your response.
Cervantes
@Brachiator:
“Could be” is nice and all, but what are the probabilities?
Cervantes
@Brachiator:
Also, that business of Bill Clinton being “the first black President” — was it before your time? If not, what did you make of it then? What do you make of it now?
Brachiator
@Betty Cracker:
I’ll take that 80 percent.
askew
@Kay:
O’Malley would have won re-election if he could have run again. He won in 2010 in an ugly environment for Dems. Brown was basically Martha Coakley. He was a horrible candidate.
I think he’ll have to answer for things, but I don’t see that being one of them.
Brachiator
@Cervantes: RE: any issues with the trade proposal could be fixed by politicians with half a brain and a third of the political will to deal with any perceived defects.
Don’t know. The point that I wanted to make here is that I do not see this as a necessary wedge between Obama and Hillary that others might. I read a couple of things about why the trade proposal is bad, but the alternatives had nothing to do with making the proposal better and were just bullheaded phony protectionism. And when people start crying about loving labor when people don’t have jobs and are not looking at the prospect of better jobs in the future, or are under-employed and dealing with stagnating wages, and the tears don’t provide any real solutions, then I think I am reasonable of accusing them of bad faith.
Shorter: I have not seen anything from the Democrats in the way of innovative thinking to fix the economy. Just the same old tired grumbling and BS about the good old days when Labor had more clout.
This was a metaphor for Clinton’s ease among black people, and what appeared to be expressions of genuine concern. There are many Southern whites people who grow up with black people, and are often cared for by black people. The best never forget this. The worst let racism destroy the bridges of mutual respect and understanding. With Bill Clinton, you did not detect any of the condescension that you sometimes get from whites who claim that they “don’t have any problems with black people,” but never seem to really know any black people or have any real black friends. And certainly would never have an office in Harlem.
And it is not just Southerners, when you go a little further. Robert Kennedy had his own version of this understanding and respect. It went beyond, for example, a distancing pity for the unfortunate and downtrodden that some white liberals love to wallow in. And of course, black people held Eleanor Roosevelt in such esteem that they would have gone to hell and back for her. They loved FDR a little less. They would have gone to the gates of hell for him, but not stepped inside.
Coming back to Bill Clinton. He is also an arrogant prick. He saw the enthusiasm for Obama as some kind of betrayal, and an affront to his ambitions for Hillary. So he stupidly lashed out and created all kinds of unnecessary hurt. But because he is also a lovable rogue, he was forgiven (with some reservations) by most people. Hillary, however, has to earn that trust own her own.
But she will never be the first black woman president. Not even metaphorically.
Nor is Bill Clinton the first black president. Not anymore. But he is an honorary member of the club.
shortstop
Speaking of black voters not being gung ho for candidates, what’s all this about O’Malley having pushed for zero-tolerance policies that increased
friction between Baltimore police and citizens? Can anyone from Maryland comment?
Cervantes
@Brachiator:
First:
Seems categorical: All opposition to it is in bad faith? Are you accusing even labor of “pretend[ing] to be devoted to labor”? Obviously, I am confused.
Second:
I don’t see this second point implied in the first.
That aside, when I asked how likely it is that (your words) “any issues with the trade proposal could be fixed by politicians,” you said you don’t know. So then what am I to make of the following paragraph?
If you don’t know how likely it is that “any issues […] could be fixed,” what’s left of the paragraph?
As I say, I am confused.
Cervantes
@Brachiator:
Thanks.
I agree with your first two paragraphs re Bill Clinton and Bobby Kennedy.
In 2004? In 2008? How do you figure this?
Because she does not relate to African-Americans the way her husband does, or because she does not relate to anyone the way her husband does?
Brachiator
@Cervantes: Briefly, there are few politicians in US history who possess Bill Clinton’s ability to charm people. Or to seduce them. That Hillary doesn’t have this charisma is not really a dig on her. But do you recall when Hillary and Obama went to Myanmar and Aunt San Suu Kyi warmly embraced Secretary Clinton and walked briefly holding hands with her? Hillary has her own strengths and ability to connect with people.
Paul in KY
@shortstop: Hadn’t thought of that! I feel your pain.
Paul in KY
@FlipYrWhig: Thank you for the correction. Had thought he actually said it.
Paul in KY
@Brachiator: Just make sure she votes for her in the general (if Mrs. Clinton is our nominee). Or if that is impossible, just don’t vote for the POS Republican.
Brachiator
@Paul in KY: This lady has never said that any Republican has ever passed her smell test, so I don’t think that voting GOP would ever be an issue. And the daughter still doesn’t know her mother’s reasons for her sentiment, so no one can say how she might feel come the general election. As to making sure she votes a certain way, that’s funny.
Aaron Morrow
Very Serious Answer: If Clinton finds that kynect is still popular, and Jack Conway wins the governorship this November, then it’s next to impossible rather than impossible.
Also, North Carolina is at least as much of an Appalachian state as Kentucky is. The more interesting question is if Clinton can win in the Ozarks. Not Arkansas, but Missouri, where Obama only lost by 0.13% of the vote in 2008. That’s where I’d waste money, but I’d talk about improving Social Security and Medicare rather than pander on conservative social issues.
Paul in KY
@Brachiator: I know you can’t force her or be in the booth or control her absentee ballot. Just lobby as much as you think you can to get the desired outcome.