The American economy lost 263,000 jobs in September — far more than expected — and the unemployment rate rose 9.8 percent, the government reported on Friday, dimming the prospect of any meaningful job growth by the end of the year.
The Labor Department’s monthly snapshot of unemployment dashed hopes that the pace of job losses would continue to slow as the economy clawed its way back from a deep recession. Economists had been hoping for 175,000 monthly job losses.
Bad news.
r€nato
They’re not unemployed. They’re going Galt to protest Obamunism.
…or, a neoclassical economist’s take: they’re not unemployed. They’re withholding their labor because salaries are too low. They are making a totally rational economic choice to hold out for better pay.
Morbo
But hey, the 3rd quarter was the best three months for the stock markets in… I don’t know how long, I stopped paying attention. The unemployment report was the lead in, so nuts to the market report.
Brick Oven Bill
Have no fear, we added three thousand new teachers.
The foundation of any economy is mining, farming, and production. There has been a concerted effort on the part of the Left to attack all three through environmental regulations, bureaucratic red-tape, and the elimination of trade barriers. This is most likely due to self-esteem issues grounded in envy towards those with the talent and virtue to succeed under Natural Law. Envy is one of the seven however. Envy is bad.
The good news is that, when the welfare state collapses and the bonds are released, America has the food resources, energy resources, and human resources to rise again. America will become a hyper-power.
This will be good for most people.
PeakVT
U-6 at 17.0%. Labor force down by 571K! Ugly.
Tom Levenson
W, anyone — as in shape of “recovery,” and not the initial of the bozo who took eight years to dismantle decades of middle class aspiration. I’d say the middle “peak” is going to look more like these, than anything.
OTOH, interest rates for all those foreclosed houses no one else is going to want to buy will probably stay low for a while.
SGEW
New poverty data for 2008 released by the Census (percentages represent population below Federal poverty level):
Colin Asher at 14% paints the picture:
Lucky duckies, all.
Third Eye Open
But think of all the time they can spend with the kids, or at their local community college learning new and exciting skills.
And for my next number, I present The Fundamentals Are Strong: An Opus in the key of Wingnut.
Now for something completely different: “I think that all good, right thinking people in this country are sick and tired of being told that all good, right thinking people in this country are fed up with being told that all good, right thinking people in this country are fed up with being sick and tired. I’m certainly not, and I’m sick and tired of being told that I am”
Trinity
I just got off the phone with my sister. One of our very close friends just heard from her company yesterday that they were getting ready for another round of layoffs; the last round was at the beginning of the year. Our friend’s job is fairly safe but she is devastated because of what she knows is coming for many of her co-workers.
It sucks out there. Unbelievably.
Ash Can
We can expect everyone currently in Federal government, from Obama on down, to continue to grasp at straws, pointing out this number or that index as indication of recovery. It’s just the way government rolls, and all I ask is that they not sound too cracked-out about it (and so far they have in fact stayed on the semi-sensible side and avoided any really laughable hype). However, I too won’t consider the situation to have truly turned around until employment shows a sustained recovery. And, as has been discussed here ad infinitum, employment lags other economic factors, so it’s going to take a while. “Blerg” is right.
SGEW
Robert Reich notes:
His forceful suggestion:
robertdsc
On a not entirely unrelated note, I can see the stimulus package from my work!
A street improvement project up the street from my workplace was funded by stim pack funds. How do I know? There was a sign placed near the beginning of the construction zone that said so. I’m angling to get a picture before the project closes.
Davis X. Machina
Well, that settles it. Obama’s had his chance.
We need to cut taxes, spend less, and invade Iran — that should fix things, and in time to salvage the Christmas retail season to boot. Also.
Scrutinizer
Look! Over there! Roman Polanski!
WyldPiratd
Oh, pshaw. Just another little bump in the road to our brand new shiny third-world economy. Why worry?
Never fear, though. The good old USA–the land of the free and the home of the brave–still has a nice lead in incarcerating its citizens.
USA! USA! USA! We’re #1, baby! Greatest country every!
Brick Oven Bill
This is a good example of why we are losing jobs:
<a href=” http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-268-Right-Side-Politics-Examiner~y2009m6d26-Obama-on-cap-and-trade-electricity-rates-would-necessarily-skyrocket“Electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket’.
I used to think that this was based in ignorance, but am beginning to believe it is based in envy. He wants to drive manufacturing, mining, and farming out of the country and tank the economy. He wants happy Americans with the talent and virtue to provide for themselves to surrender their earnings to him, so that he can transfer those earnings to the people who gave him positive emotional feedback in Chicago, the ones he was unable to organize.
This is why he would reject me as a friend in college. It is low self-esteem, rooted in his abandonment by his biological father, his adopted father, and then his mother. He wants everybody to be unhappy to make himself feel better. The positive emotional feedback he received in Chicago is his safety blanket.
Irrelevant,YetPoignant
@Brick Oven Bill: Oh my God, you are so weirdly stupid. It never fails to amaze.
Michael D.
@Brick Oven Bill: Most people would consider drinking this early in the morning to be a serious problem.
Mr Furious
So. Is this Obama’s fault or Bill Clinton’s?
mclaren
Unemployment is a trailing indicator. Still, the big issue that the mainstream media is STILL not reporting remains the fact that most of our big American corporations are “detaching themselves from the U.S. economy.” That’s dog-whistle code-speak for “if you’re an American PhD, prepare to move to Bangalore and get paid Bangalore India wages if you want to keep working for IBM.”
So how the hell is America supposed to maintain a middle class if all the manufacturing jobs have already been shipped to the third world, and all the high-paid high-wage white collar skilled knowledge-worker jobs are also getting outsourced overseas to the third world?
Davis X. Machina
Yes.
Morbo
@mclaren:
By developing the technology to extract our 400 years worth of shale oil. What? Why are you laughing?
r€nato
@mclaren: why do you assume they want a middle class? If they did, they wouldn’t have spent the last 30 years looting it.
Obama Death Panel Chairman (formerly glocksman)
Anecdotes aren’t data, but my employer is hiring both permanent and temporary workers like crazy and offering weekend overtime from now until the end of the year.
Of course my employer pays shit ($8/hr) for starting pay, but we do have excellent health benefits.
My employer is the TJ Maxx Evansville Distribution Center.
The old saw about discounters like TJ doing well in an economic downturn are apparently true.
Crashman06
@Brick Oven Bill:
You sound a little envious yourself there, Bill.
asiangrrlMN
@Davis X. Machina: I was gonna say Jimmy Carter’s, but your answer is better.
gnomedad
Shorter BOB: This is excellent news for John McCain!
R-Jud
@Obama Death Panel Chairman (formerly glocksman):
Not just discounters. My main client is a career school and their enrollment is way the fuck up. This means more work and cash for me, which is awesome, but I imagine all those new enrollees are not learning medical billing and coding or what have you on a whim.
Legalize
OT, but are we allowed to question their patriotism yet?
The Grand Panjandrum
@Mr Furious:
EDIT: Someone up thread beat me to it. But I personally blame Michael Moore because he’s still fat, and Al Gore because he lives in a big house, too.
Violet
@Mr Furious:
Yes. And FDR’s. Also.
gbear
And for those at the top of the financial food chain:
All I can add is: Eat the rich.
Rommie
My employment is at a Community College in Michigan. Our enrollment numbers are up over 20 percent from a year ago. If the state government doesn’t get sucked into the Wingularity and drastically cut its share of funding, my job is reasonably safe. Even then, we are running at – 1 1/2 full-time jobs from what our minimal staff should be, so I’m about as secure as you can be with things so crappy.
Even then x 2, I’m just Part Time, so I’m one of the “underemployed” statistics that doesn’t get reported.
The Grand Panjandrum
@Legalize: With regard to DeMint’s trip to Honduras:
Kerry’s office has confirmed according to this report.
This is why it’s important Democrats remain in control of Congress. So assholes like DeMint can be put in their place.
Bender
Time for another hard-hitting NYT piece on the Joys of FUNemployment! Wheeeeee!
Karen
I would like to know what people are looking at when they declare the recession is over. Job losses, foreclosures, what are they seeing? It doesn’t appear to be anything I see.
PaulW
This is the big bad thing that is gonna bite the Dems on the ass if they don’t wake up and see about some kind of jobs growth bill to encourage re-employment. This is NOT an economic recovery if there’s still 10 percent (actually 17 percent) of Americans not a part of said recovery. We’re being left behind…
Mr Furious
@The Grand Panjandrum:
Trick question, and we all missed it…
It’s ACORN’s fault, of course!
The Grand Panjandrum
@Mr Furious: Aiyee! Of course it was OBVIOUS. Sheesh how did I miss that?
mclaren
Karen asked:
Smoking rubble as far as the eye can see. Cannibals crawling through the wreckage of burned-out buildings and abandoned rusted cars searching for corpses to eat.
“I love the smell of rotting flesh in the morning. It smells like…CAPITALISM!”
danimal
Could it be possible that employers are holding out on hiring because of the uncertainty of health insurance reform? Cost certainty is one of those known unknowns (or is unknown knowns, or unknown unknowns..I don’t translate Rumsfeld well) that go into hiring and expansion, right?
John PM
@Davis X. Machina: #12
It appears you are joking, but invading Iran is the perfect way to decrease unemployment. The Depression did not end until the United States became involved in WWII. Between the war production and the deaths of thousands of young men who would have otherwise clogged the workforce, we were able to create the conditions for the middle class that developed after the end of WWII. An invasion of Iran would lead to the same result. We could draft many, if not most, of the current unemployed/underemployed and send them to fight in Iran, not to mention Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. This would reduce unemployment to probably no more than 5%. Additionally, those who are killed or horribly maimed, while tragic, would ultimately reduce the number of people looking for work. Also, the likelihood of eventually becoming involve in a full-scale nuclear war with China and/or Russia would result in further reduction of the surplus population in the United States, ultimately leading to the conservative Uptopia of smaller government, no taxes, no unions and no ACORN. Also, the farming and manufacturing industries would once again be booming.
Why, yes, I have been reading B.O.B.’s posts very carefully. Why do you ask?
Zifnab
@The Grand Panjandrum:
I don’t suppose they can stick him in a chair facing the corner and cut off his ice cream privileges too?
Also – ahem – 60 votes! Why are we not steamrolling over these obnoxious GOP holds on a daily basis?
Mr Furious
@Rommie: I used to work at WCC…
Brick Oven Bill
That 17 percent does not include those like me, who are largely idled as self-employed people. There are lots of these people.
General McCrystal is an Alpha male. To my knowledge, he is not a structural feminist or a Marxist professor. This is why the President, either consciously or subconsciously, avoided contact with him (self esteem) until the bad press (negative emotional feedback). He has not changed from college.
The President is now emotionally invested in the Olympic games on a personal level. If what he sees as his personal request is rejected by the IOC, watch for signs of him beginning to lose it. This is a President that has been surrounded by nurturing people who for the last 30 years have never told him no. The crack-up would be accelerated should the press publish a picture of him smoking a cigarette.
A rational President can remain aloof for only so long before the accountability catches up to his consciousness. I am not sure that President Obama is rational however. But the reason he opposes the Constitutionally-seated current President of Honduras, whose seating was enabled by the Honduran military is…
Give me a ping, Vasili. One ping only, please.
dr. luba
@mclaren:
Selling Amway products to each other?
The Grand Panjandrum
@Zifnab:
IIRC this is part of Senate rules and can only be lifted by individual placing hold. It may be the case that the leadership can lift them but I don’t recall. Isn’t this one of those Senatorial “courtesy” things? You know–how they all act in a dignified manner and give each other reach arounds in order to feign public decorum–unlike the barbarians in the House.
McGeorge Bundy
Real unemployment (‘U-6’) is at 17%. Hurray!
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm
Zifnab
@danimal:
I doubt it. Employers are probably just using current cost estimates to determine their budgets. I don’t know anyone in my office that is trying to crunch numbers on the effect of health care reform.
All you can do is look at the last billing cycle or two and project out what the next billing cycle is going to look like. If people aren’t hiring, it’s because no one thinks anyone else is spending.
John T
I’m one of the lucky duckies, having been laid off just yesterday. I’ve actually never been properly laid off before, so I’m looking forward to hanging around in my pajamas and collecting unemployment checks for a while. Emphasis on “for a while”, as I’m sure it won’t be long before I’m bored out of my mind.
Of course, the only reason I can afford to be flippant about this is because I don’t have kids or debt.
McGeorge Bundy
Too late, I see.
Note to self: Next time, read comments first.
Zifnab
@The Grand Panjandrum:
I assumed a “hold” was a notice you gave Senate Leadership of your intent to filibuster. And since filibusters fall to a 60 vote majority, the threat of filibuster isn’t much of a threat at all.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secret_hold
Looks like I’m wrong. :-p
asiangrrlMN
@John T: Sorry to hear that, man. Good luck. Nice to see you can joke about it.
RedKitten
It’s the free market at work! If only everybody would be willing to forgo a paycheck (and food and housing) for awhile by refusing to apply for any low-paying jobs. You’d see wages perk right back up in a jiffy, you betcha! Prosperity for all!
Seriously, is this how wingnuts think? I mean, seriously?
comrade scott's agenda of rage
Que C3PO saying:
“We’re doomed.”
Kirk Spencer
Ready for the contrary point? NOTE: much of the following is my opinion, though I’m prepared to defend it with facts and figures.
The recession is about over. Unemployment will probably peak over the next four or five months. GDP will be up between 1 and 2% for third and fourth quarter of this year and in the 1st of next year will increase by about 3%.
Now let me explain why I say so.
Unemployment peaking. One very significant data point a lot of people don’t watch is new claims. There are two ends to the unemployment pipeline – those entering, and those leaving. Now historically – as in every US recession for which the data exists – the end of a recession coincides not with the reversal of unemployment but with the peak of the four-week moving average of initial claims. That peak was reached during the third quarter of this year. Total unemployment lags behind. Businesses quit cutting people because their sales pick up, and then they start hiring people as it picks up more.
Retail sales EXCLUDING automobile sales have been up for three months now. The monthly Private Income report has shown five months of increasing PCE (Personal Consumption Expenses). The ISM’s manufacturing report shows production is increasing for the second month in a row. Railfax reports of rail shipping shows that more goods are being shipped weekly and have for almost three months now. The census reports that total private real estate sales (as opposed to commercial) are up in both dollars and quantity for the third month in a row.
None of these is back to the levels they were in 2007 but they’ve not only quit falling, they’ve started increasing.
Now the two big fears are: a) a doldrums; and b) a double-dip. I’d like to address both in turn and then explain why I think neither applies.
Doldrums are when enough has been done to stop the plunge but nothing is happening to rebuild. Krugman and Delong have both indicated in several articles that they expect doldrums because they don’t expect any second stimulus. We’ve still got a large liquidity trap and they don’t see anything on the horizon to drain the trap – to absorb the liquidity. They’re both in agreement with Orszag’s OMB forecast of doldrums till the middle of 2011.
The double-dip is the expectation of most Miseans (aka monetarists aka Chicago school aka freshwater economists). It’s considered a possibility by their economic opposites, the Keynesians. A point of fact for weighting predictions, first. In the past 30 years, where predictions of keynesians differed from predictions of miseans, the keynesians were right and the miseans wrong. Where they coincide, they have an approximately equal record of being right and wrong. With that point in fact in mind I again want to point to the fact this is an expectation of miseans and considered a possibility by monetarists. The difference is that there are some potential events that the former consider certain and the keynesians consider only possible. These include a collapsing dollar (due to a variety of reasons related to size of debt and foreign willingness to purchase); a very large stock of REO housing that could be dumped on the market; CDSs and other financial funsies that are still unresolved; more ARM readjustments (that may have peaked or may peak in about six months, depending on chart you’re reviewing); and so forth. Oh, don’t forget to add major bank failures to the mix. Again, some keynesians have said that a timely stimulus – particularly one applied in advance – could nullify the effect of these if they happened.
Why I disagree. Notice a key counter the keynesians propose to all of these is “a stimulus”. I’m going to point out again that when keynesians and miseans differ, the keynesians have a sustained track record of being right. Thus I’m going to focus on a second stimulus. And the reality is that we’re going to see a stimulus in early 2010.
No, not something called a stimulus. I’m talking about the health care reform. It’s going to pass. It may be ugly; it may or may not include a public option. But every one of the bills causes a LOT of money to enter and move through the economy through the health (and health insurance) industry. We’re going to see a severe bump in dollars from that alone.
I also think we’ll see something that allows a lot of people to get insurance they presently cannot obtain. And that’s going to have an effect generally unanticipated. It’s going to result in a surge of entrepreneurship. Some surveys done a while back (Kaiser was one, I think SBA did another) showed that a lot of people think they’d like to start a business but are held back not by the loss of income but by the loss of benefits. In particular the loss of health benefits. When the company pays part it SEEMS to cost less (and more often than not DOES cost less). If stepping out carries less chance of catastrophic loss, it’s more likely. Oh, not everyone who thinks they’ll step out will do so, but a lot of them will. And every new business is another person (or two or four) employed, and a bit more surge to the economy.
Even if we don’t get a public option we’ll see a stimulus effect from the health care bill – a bill that at this point I am 95% certain will pass in some form. It will result in enough improvement to the economy to start cutting back on unemployment. If we also get a tolerable (much less good) public option we’ll all be delighted in how quickly things reversed.
Crashman06
@Brick Oven Bill: Hey BOB, guess you missed out on Gen. Chrystal defending Obama against a British think tank.
Money quote:
So yeah, maybe you should count on another conquering, big-man hero general to save you in 2012.
The Grand Panjandrum
Don’t forget that at about 12:30 ET we should know what reason the wingnuts will use to determine another Obama failure. (The IOC announces who get the 2016 games) The voting is under way now.
eyelessgame
OT: “Lucky duckies” needs to be in the BJL. just needs a reference to the WSJ editorial that used it in reference to those who don’t pay income tax because they’ve got no fucking income.
The Grand Panjandrum
Chicago was eliminated in first round.
Bhall35
I second the request for “lucky duckies” to be in the BJL.
Bhall35
I second the request for “lucky duckies” to be in the BJL.
Crashman06
@The Grand Panjandrum: This is good news for John McCain.
Bhall35
and I third it as well…delete function of double post not working, it seems.
gopher2b
@The Grand Panjandrum:
Shock and awe here. Public support here never really went above 50% and when it did it just hovered. The other cities all had 70-80% support. Anecdotally, I know the people who were against it were concerned about the public corruption here. I suppose that is the Daley’s penance for the administration he runs.
Dexter Morgan
@The Grand Panjandrum: I hate to disappoint you but:
http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2009/10/jim_demints_on-/
Kirk Spencer
@mclaren: I really hate this bit of false common wisdom.
The United States manufactures more (measured in dollars) than any other nation in the world. The Japan and the UK (Not EU) are second and third, and China is fourth.
United States manufacturing has been increasing (again measured in dollars, even indexed for inflation) for a long time, and did again up to this recession.
Have we shipped manufacturing overseas? Yes. Have we been decreasing our total manufacturing? No.
Elizabelle
OT, but just found this in the LATimes:
How the Swiss Reformed Healthcare
by Ruth Dreifuss, former head of the Swiss Department for Home Affairs (whatever)
http://www.latimes.com/features/health/medicine/la-oe-dreifuss2-2009oct02,0,4031233.story
” ….The Swiss reforms featured many provisions now being considered in the United States, including a mandate on individuals to purchase health insurance, the elimination of preexisting-condition restrictions and a ban on charging higher premiums based on age or gender.
…. The debates in parliament were very intense, and the proposed law succeeded only because of the concessions made by most of Switzerland’s political parties and the expectation of benefits for all interest groups. Employers would no longer need to provide health insurance to their employees. Medical costs and premiums would no longer be subject to a government moratorium imposed to contain escalating costs. Trade unions agreed to renounce job-based health insurance, and the political left abandoned its desires for a single-payer system and premiums based on income in exchange for the guarantee of universal coverage.
[Ensuing national referendum was “extremely close”, but ” 15 years later, no one in Switzerland questions the need for universal coverage. “]
Of course, universal coverage has not solved all of our problems. The costs of the medical system have not been restrained as much as anticipated, despite better control of drug prices and medical services. And the burden of higher health insurance premiums falls disproportionately on middle-class families, because they are too rich to receive subsidies and because premiums are paid for every member of the family, children included.”
Apologies for majorly long quote, but maybe the Obama administration is following Switzerland’s model. It would seem to comport with President’s language on the subject.
ksmiami
is BOB off his meds today – he is being wierder than usual???
Maude
@The Grand Panjandrum: Obama is meeting with McCrystal, I think, as it was described as head of Afghan forces or some such, so the critics have to either back down or claim that it was just to make the trip seem legitimate. One idiot talk show host here in the NY area said yesterday that Obama wanted the games to enrich his buddies. Hello? Anyone remember Halliburton (spell check comes up with hallucination) ?
Comrade Dread
Sure, I mean, it’s all going to hell, but at least the news that Goldman Sachs and Wall St. are doing good thanks to your tax dollars should make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside as you take another bite of your Styrofoam sandwich.
Elizabelle
At least Obama tried for the Olympics. Not a major fail, although wingnuts will seize on it.
Personally, I would like Rio (but for the fact Obama was lobbying for Chicago).
Brachiator
@gbear:
OTOH, Forbes has stuff about the richest Americans. We really should feel their pain:
http://www.forbes.com/2009/09/30/forbes-400-gates-buffett-wealth-rich-list-09_land.html
Maybe someone should broadcast a telethon….
Chris Brown
Obama has nothing to do with the lay offs most of the states didn’t accept the stimulus money and those states that chose not to take the money are the very states that are still suffering, Florida is a big example they rather raise taxes on people who are already living paycheck to paycheck but hey that’s just my opinion so study your facts before you judge, and remember Bush started the mess.
Sly
Have you read McChrystal’s counterinsurgency guidelines for Afghanistan? It’s possibly the least violence-oriented strategy documented produced by the military in the past half century. I understand you, along with the rest of the Keyboard Commandos, need someone with a large codpiece upon which you can affix your salivating jowls, but you might want to look elsewhere.
“We need to understand the people and see things through their eyes. It is their fears, frustrations, and expectations that we must address. We will not win simply by killing insurgents. We will help the Afghan people by securing them, by protecting them from intimidation, violence, and abuse, and by operating in a way that respects their culture and religion. This means that we must change the way we think, act, and operate. We must get the people involved as active participants in the success of their communities.”
Alpha Male. Right.
Elizabelle
Steve Pearlstein, WaPost business columnist, on Michael Moore’s new movie:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/01/AR2009100104837.html
“The curious thing about this movie, however, is that while many of its small points are exaggerated or misinformed, Moore’s largest point is essentially correct: that the economic system no longer works for the majority of Americans.”
Brachiator
@Elizabelle:
Juan Antonio Samaranch, president of the IOC, was born in Barcelona. I suspect that the fix is in for Madrid.
SGEW
@ksmiami:
He was posting his lyrics about attempted rape on the last open thread.
I don’t care if he’s on his meds or not, or if he’s a spoof or not, or the ideal of free expression in semi-public fora: he should be banned. But I say this all the time.
R-Jud
@Elizabelle:
I am pretty sure I remember Senator Franken saying something to this effect. It was in a video where he was talking down some wingnuts who’d cornered him at the MN state fair.
Also, in re the Olympic bid? Daley’s baby, not Obama’s. It was nice of the President to help the push, though.
Sly
In other words: Technically nonsense, but collectively true?
Bootlegger
@Sly: I’m a marxist professor, who thinks Marx was wrong on many fronts, and I could have written that. My structural feminist wife teaches those same ideas in her intro to (marxist, but Marx was wrong) sociology course.
Brachiator
@Elizabelle:
I must confess that I have never seen a Michael Moore film. I’ve seem substantial clips from his work, but have never sat down to watch an entire film.
I have seen Moore be interviewed a number of times.
This of course, makes me eminently qualified to review his latest work and to give an assessment of his entire career.
Bootlegger
@Brachiator: Rio should have it, it is “their turn”, also.
gopher2b
@Brachiator:
If Madrid gets it, that’s some serious bullshit.
London has 2012 and Rio had a very good presentation. As much as I hate the “we’ve never had it, it’s our turn argument” the have earned it.
Comrade Dread
I think the sad thing is that if any other filmmaker had put this together, we’d have a lot more pissed off middle Americans demanding action to stop this nonsense with Wall St.
But because it’s Michael Moore (built up for years as the ultimate liberal demon), a lot of people won’t even bother seeing the movie, even though (from what I’ve heard) it’s fairly balanced in laying the blame for the outright whoredom of our political class to Wall St.
Martin
Well, job losses are slowing, but they are still losses. Foreclosures at least where I am in SoCal have slowed a lot and housing prices are flat and in some places climbing. And we’re subprime central.
There are some indications that we’re bottoming out, but no real indications that we’re recovering. I think it’s a matter of perspective. If you have a job and are doing okay you’ll probably be fine, and the news couldn’t be better. If you don’t have a job and aren’t doing okay, that means you’re going to be fucked for a while longer, and the news couldn’t be worse.
tripletee
@Brick Oven Bill:
I thought that was why you posted here.
Ditka
Can everyone stop hyperventilating and look at the trend over at Steve Benens?
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2009_10/020225.php
Also, if you can plot the U-6 number for the year in excel and post it up as well, it would be a big help.
The trend needs to be shown on a high traffic website.
tc125231
Oh gosh, once again, Krugman was right. What a surprise!
Blogs like this need to do a better job of identifying people whose predictive track records are good.
Don’t you think?
tc125231
@Brick Oven Bill: Gosh, why be so complicated? I would reject you because you are routinely pompous, and vastly overestimate your reasoning capacity.
I don’t wish you any ill, but it IS tedious.
mclaren
Kirk Spencer, I really hate dishonest scams that lie with statistics the way you just did.
American currently spends 1.47 trillion dollars per year on our military, broadly defined to include NRO (satellite reconnaissance), CIA, NSA, VA, military retirement, etc.
Break out the manufacturing devoted to the U.S. military and American manfacturing drops to less than half of what it was in real dollars back in 1970.
You are lying, sir. You are lying through your teeth when you say that American manufacturing hasn’t declined in real terms due to outsourcing. You’re lying stupidly and incompetently, because the stats shows hard and clear that when we break out military manufacturing from the U.S. economy, America’s manufacturing capacity has collapsed since 1970.
Not only is your lie ignorant and stupid, Kirk Spencer, your lie is grossly incompetent because any consumer can tell just by wandering through a big box store that you’re lying through your teeth. Where are all the TVs and cellphones and DVD players and lawnmowers and motorcycles manufactured? In America? Not on your ass, they’re manufactured in Korea and Taiwan and Japan and Germany and the Netherlands and most of all in China.
Stop telling these kinds of stupid lies. The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter accounts for 1 trillion (T, TRILLION) dollars of U.S. “manufacturing” over the next 5 years, the Navy’s shipbuilding program accounts for 737 billion dollars worth of U.S. “manufacturing” over the next 7 years. Stop telling these stupid lies and wake up and smell the latte. America has exported its manufacturing overseas and the only thing that remains is building guns and bombs and tanks and missiles and planes that don’t work in a real theater of war.
Kirk Spencer
@mclaren: No, I’m not lying. You’re blowing smoke yourself, but it’s from looking at top level instead of digging deep into the numbers.
Let’s start with an obvious bone you have – military spending. Hello, friend, what do you think we’ve been building for literally decades? Military manufacturing has been a very large portion of our total for a long, long time.
Your bias causes you to be overwhelmed by realities. Let’s take as specific example the “1 Trillion over five years” for the F-35. Cool – that’s 200 Billion per year. That is 4% of our 2007 total manufacturing. Four percent.
Yes, I’m getting ready to throw hard numbers. In 2007 Manufacturing accounted for 5.033 Trillion dollars of GDP. As a reference point it produced 4.145 Trillion in 2000 – which was a bit of a hump. Non-durable manufacturing – you know, things that are NOT ships and airplanes – went from $1.816T to $2.496 in 2007.
Source for preceding is here.
General source is the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) Industry subset of GDP tables, found here.
As it happens, I get paid to do information. Lying and falsifying numbers can get me fired. Hard numbers that I have to stand up and defend. I’m quite used to misconceptions and people allowing their biases to blind them to the hard data.
By the way, the bit of flame? You’ll persuade more people if you don’t come across as an a-hole.