I was looking through the tweets in Anne Laurie’s post below and it just struck me how much energy goes into the fucked up anachronism that is the Iowa primary.
Not only does the caucus system effectively disenfranchise handicapped voters, it also makes it tough for voters who work evenings, and it’s generally confusing. One of the long-term goals of the Democratic party is to make it easier to for everyone to vote, yet our first big event is probably the least democratic form of participation possible. And, because it gets so much publicity, and idiot pundits fetishize all the dumb little details, it gives off the message that you have to know a lot about politics to participate in the primary process.
Iowa is also lily white and rural, while the battlegrounds we need to win are in the industrial midwest and the sun belt are urban and multi-racial.
Of course, I know how hard it is to get states that are used to the millions of dollars of revenue to change their primaries, but at some point in 2021 we need to have this fight.
Or maybe we just need to get a billionaire to tell the DNC he doesn’t like the process. That seems to work, too.
germy
What is the best solution?
MattF
Iowa should be a sideshow. But sustaining a media narrative is ‘way more important than electing a chief executive.
germy
Off topic, but:
Another Scott
Morning.
Meh.
Repost – Warning – Politico:
But DNC Corruption™ yada, yada, yada.
Vlad is so very, very happy that so many people are trying to turn this into 2016 Electric Boogaloo.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
Agree. But let’s not forget that the Dems have made substantial progress in relegating caucuses to the dustbin of history.
Probably Not an Asshole mistermix
@germy: It’s going to happen, if not this year, next year after a bunch of NYS Senate seats flip.
Probably Not an Asshole mistermix
@Another Scott:
Appearances matter in politics, and the appearance here isn’t good. Putin would like it just as much if we self-censored all day long as well.
gene108
@Another Scott:
Kind of nuts that no one brings up the corruption in the RNC, like paying for Trump’s legal defense, 2016 RNC Vice Finance Chair Michael Cohen being in jail, etc.
Omnes Omnibus
@Probably Not an Asshole mistermix: Priorities matter too. We can’t have all the fights at once. Working for ballot access and against voter suppression will have far more effect both at the ballot box and in appearances.
Jinchi
That’s pretty much priced in at this point.
dr. bloor
@germy: The DNC tells state parties their delagates will not be seated if chosen by caucus or per a schedule issued by the DNC.
Starfish
@Another Scott: Let’s eliminate all the candidates of color and change the rules for a billionaire is not a good look.
Baud
@Starfish:
I don’t like the outcome and I don’t think they should change the rules but the DNC didn’t eliminate anyone.
Probably Not an Asshole mistermix
@dr. bloor:
@germy:
I agree with bloor but the history of this is that these fights are tough because declining to seat delegates is a major step for the DNC that alienates party members from the state.
In a world where the DNC could bring the states to heel, I’d add that the schedule should rotate so lots of different states get to host primaries first. Every state should have accessible voting – meaning that working folks, handicapped folks, etc. have ample opportunities to vote. Finally, no fucking caucuses.
Chyron HR
Reminder: Harris wasn’t driven out of the race by the DNC’s debate rules, she quit because you shitheads tanked her campaign with your KAMALA’S A COOOOOP bullshit.
zhena gogolia
OT, but for James Norton and Ukraine fans and NYT haters, new film about the Holodomor:
Baud
If we can’t get Iowa out of first in the nation or make them do primaries, here’s a thought.
A DNC rule that any candidate that wants to earn delegates out of Iowa can’t run any media ads there. It all has to be grass roots organizing.
MattF
@Chyron HR:
Well, I was a Harris fan… you could try blaming the people who actually did that. And, as unfair as it was, the useful goal of a primary campaign is to expose a candidate’s real-world strengths and weaknesses.
debbie
@Chyron HR:
And Steyer stole her donor list.
Jinchi
Maybe James Comey isn’t the best person to make this argument.
Another Scott
@Baud: I really don’t think Iowa and NH matter all that much, myself. Iowa mattered to Jimmy Carter because hardly anyone knew him outside of Georgia. It mattered to Obama because it showed that a black guy can win a contest in an overwhelmingly white state.
But there are lots and lots of examples of candidates winning Iowa and/or New Hampshire and not winning the nomination.
It’s the whole package that matters. Of course, candidates have to pay some attention to those states (they should pay attention to lots of states), but surviving Iowa and being close in New Hampshire is enough if the candidates can do well in the closely following, much more representative, contests. And there is some real value in candidates being able to reach real voters in relatively inexpensive media markets and building a brand before they need hundreds of millions for ads and machines in big markets. They need to be able to build and sustain a narrative in spite of setbacks (“you’ve made me the Comeback Kid”).
I don’t think that “no paid media” would work, myself. The TV and the press would be furious that they weren’t getting all that filthy ad money and slant their coverage, for one thing.
I’m all for making the caucus more representative and less burdensome (ranked choice voting, absentee voting, etc.) or getting rid of it. But it won’t destroy the party if it sticks around a few more cycles. At least that’s my hope!!
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
germy
@debbie:
Then he got my name. And my wife’s.
Spanky
@Jinchi: I saw that last night, but was happy to leave it unremarked upon, as everything Comey says/writes should be.
Fuck ‘im
ETA: For WaPo mockery, there’s always Hewitt’s latest excrement, “Memories of this impeachment charade will fade quickly”. No, I didn’t read it and neither should you.
Ohio Mom
Jinchi @20:
Comey should leave his brain to science so we can identify the lobe where utter gall, shamelessness and other variations of chutzpah are located.
It’s bound to be abnormally outsized and therefore easy to find.
OzarkHillbilly
@germy: Hmmmm… I wonder why they don’t regulate the amount of alcohol one may possess?
Felanius Kootea
@Jinchi:
Yeah, he’ll be fine. The rest of us not so much. Insufferable man who couldn’t just do his job and shut up. No, he had to violate the Hatch Act to show how morally superior he was. I hope his conscience eats at him forever.
Yes, I’m bitter.
Omnes Omnibus
I agree.
MattF
@Spanky: About once a week, Hewitt inserts a sensitive part of his body into a WH electrical socket, in order to connect with the Trumpean Zeitgeist. The result is disgusting, but it can be informative.
Barb 2
Washington state used to be a caucus state. The caucuses to be one of the most undemocratic ways to choose a politician to run for national office. Caucuses can be manipulated and vast numbers of voters are shut out of their voting rights.
Sanders cult boys took over the caucuses in 2016 in WA State and “won” over Clinton. Our state also had a primary and Clinton won the primary by an overwhelming vote – a real Democratic vote. Clinton mentions this caucus vs primary vote in her post election book. This year I can vote in a primary and know my vote will count. The democrats in the House have written and passed several bills which would create a fair election. Seems to me that these laws – some written to block Russian influence need to be passed by the senate.
Call your Senators and demand the Moscow Mitch stop blocking clean voting bills.
Basically all the money and time spent on Iowa caucuses is being wasted. I watched the caucuses in Washington State manipulated by candidate representatives for years and I see all the tricks repeated in Iowa.
We still have a long way to go before we are a real democracy. The electoral college is another undemocratic hold over from a different era.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: Iowa Radio and TV will never allow that. Neither will stations in southern MN, western IL, northern MO, eastern NE or eastern SD. People have the right to pay obscene amounts for their free speech.
Amir Khalid
No score at halftime in the Liverpool-Southampton Premier League match at Anfield.
PsiFighter37
The donor threshold thing, to me, was a stupid bar to include, especially since Wilmer and his supporters have shown just how easy it is to game the particular numbers you want to look good. I have no problem with the polling thresholds, though – in this day and age, every candidate can get exposure if they are looking for it. That’s why I am unsympathetic to the (IMO, vastly misguided) complaints from candidates (looking at you, Julian Castro and Cory Booker, in particular) and their supporters about candidates of color being disproportionately impacted by the rules. I am wary about how Bloomberg is approaching this race – basically taking his NYC mayoral campaign approach of basically airdropping money on any available media outlet – national, but at the same time, he has a non-negligible amount of support. He should be on the stage, and frankly, he needs to be asked about some of his policies – stop and frisk will undoubtedly get the most attention, but even things like vacationing constantly every weekend in Bermuda and his too-cozy relationship with developers should be highlighted. Oh, and how he got term limits overturned just for himself (and everyone else on the City Council, as an ancillary bribe) as a one-off, because Mikey felt that there was no way NYC could manage their way out of the financial crisis unless he was in charge.
On a related note, I read an article on New York Magazine about Lis Smith, who is Mayor Pete’s media person. She is the epitome of why the Democratic Party keeps losing important races – our professional political class is filled with mediocre people who have connections and keep getting work no matter how shitty their win-loss record is, and she keeps getting more and more important jobs. It just adds another reason why I’ll be happy when Underqualified Pete drops out.
Mike J
@Barb 2: What I’m really concerned about is who they’re going to pick for delegates. Yes, we ditched the caucus, yes, we’re having a primary this year, but the state party is picking the delegates internally without having delegate names on the ballot.
I don’t trust WashDems to not pick the type of people who will boo John Lewis, or frankly to vote for whoever the voters pick.
Go to your LD meetings.
Van Buren
@Chyron HR: Thank you. Well put, if somewhat impolite.
Mike J
@PsiFighter37: One downside of depending on polls is that there have been many fewer this cycle than last. Polling is expensive and people just aren’t paying for it.
PsiFighter37
@Barb 2: I imagine that Clinton is extra-bitter about caucuses, because frankly that is one of the reasons Obama ended up being the nominee in 2008 – he vastly out-organized her campaign in virtually every caucus state and racked up a good chunk of his delegate margin in those contests.
JMG
FWIW, one of my son’s college friends who also went into the politics/PR continuum. Is now working for Bloomberg. Getting paid like three times what he made at his previous gig, working for an organization that helps teachers run for public office. He is sure gig won’t last past April.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: The way that Iowa and New Hampshire matter is that there are a lot of people who think the results there are determinate.
There is a ridiculously large number of people who, even in primaries – even before these crazy times where we are desperate to choose the person who could beat Trump – vote for the person they think the winner will be.
I saw it when making calls to Tennessee in 2004: “I really like General Clark, and I don’t really like this other guy, but it looks like he’s going to get the nomination, so that’s who I am going to vote for.”
That’s why it matters so much, even when it shouldn’t. It’s important to self-esteem for some people to be able to say “I picked a winner!”
Amir Khalid
America is the only nation I know of where caucuses are part of a national election. I think I have an idea of how they originated, with elections held at town meetings or similar. But I don’t understand their survival into the present day.
kindness
It’s funny. This whole time I had always assumed Republicans in the Senate would bury the impeachment trial and give Trump a pass. And even expecting that now that they have cravenly refused witnesses, I’m a little taken aback. The nakedness of it surprises me.
Get out the vote. Do what you can to keep anyone from hacking the machines & tallies. Foreign & domestic. ‘Cause they just told us they’re gonna try.
PsiFighter37
@Mike J: Absolutely – the quality of polling has continually decreased since 2012, where it basically got everything bang-on. I think the continued decrease of landline usage (and, especially among younger people, less usage of cell phones for phone calls – I ignore any call from a number I don’t recognize given how much phone spam there is these days) makes it harder to get things right. Combine it with the freak outcome of the 2016 election (where polling clearly could not measure the impact of Russian suppression techniques), and you have folks being a lot more gunshy. YMMV, but it is a bit of a loss. It does seem like pollsters generally got the 2019 British election right, though.
Mike J
@WaterGirl: I will probably restrict my vote to somebody in the top two so I can vote for the person I prefer out of those who have the best shot. Or read that as vote against the person I like less and maximize the less hated person’s chances.
delk
How many of those cowardly states that cancelled their republican primaries to protect trump will let republican rat fuckers the chance to vote in the Democratic primary?
WaterGirl
@PsiFighter37: What you say is true. However, I don’t see how the caucuses themselves gave Obama an advantage.
Obama’s people KNEW THE RULES, and they played to win, in part by knowing the rules better than anyone else. If the rules had been different, the details of their strategy would have been different, but I’m willing to bet they would still have know the rules better than anyone else, and would have played to those rules.
Clinton’s people could have known the rules just as well, but they didn’t. The responsibility for that lies with the Clinton campaign, not with caucuses.
Amir Khalid
Alexander Oxlade-Chamberlain scores: Liverpool 1-0 Southampton.
MattF
@PsiFighter37: My understanding is that the poll response rate is below ten percent– getting something useful from that is a dark art.
WaterGirl
@Mike J: Me, too. But it won’t be because I want to be able to say that I was smart enough to pick the winner.
I won’t be choosing a candidate to stroke my ego, for bragging rights.
I probably didn’t make my point well. In 2020, we have a damn good reason to go for “ability to beat Trump” above all else, because we are looking at scorched earth.
My point was that even before this, in 2004, people wanted to be able to say they voted for the winner, so those low info or low engagement voters who don’t understand that we are close to life and death at this point – those people may well vote for the Iowa and NH winners so they can feel like they are voting for “winners”, even if it means they will vote for someone like Bernie who doesn’t have a chance in hell of beating Trump in November.
I realize that is one long run-on sentence, but I’m leaving it anyway.
WaterGirl
@Amir Khalid: Now you’ve done it! We’re going to get another AOC post from MM, aren’t we? :-)
CarolDuhart2
@Another Scott: Instead of having people stand in corners, why not ranked voting instead? Anyone who doesn’t get at least 15% in two rounds gets eliminated. They can still run elsewhere, of course, but it would probably take out a lot of the 1% pretty quickly and narrow the field to those who have at least a remote chance of winning a primary.
People could submit their ranked choices and just go home.
PsiFighter37
@WaterGirl: I’m not saying what Obama did was wrong, and clearly I think his campaign acted in far better faith than Wilmer’s campaign did in 2016 or is doing now. That said, just look at Texas as an example: Clinton won the primary, but Obama won the caucus and therefore took more delegates from the state overall.
You’ll never hear Clinton say a word about it, but the caucus system did screw her over in 2008 – I did the count, and Obama won 133 more delegates than Clinton did in caucuses that year, which is more than double his pledged delegate lead at the end of the primary (including the disputed MI/FL delegates) – and in 2016, which likely prolonged a race that should have been over much sooner.
Amir Khalid
@WaterGirl:
Somehow I don’t think mistermix has ever even heard of this AOC.
Baud
@WaterGirl:
Also, the first contests are what drive a lot of the pre-primary media coverage, which has lasting effects on the whole process.
And lesser known prospective candidates who might think they can win South Carolina but not Iowa or NH might not even run.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
OT, from LGM, Our Fragile Past, by Erik Loomis:
I’m not sure I like what Obama is doing myself. Not everybody has access to the internet and I think this big push of “digitizing” everything is a mistake. What does BJ think?
Barbara
@Chyron HR: As a Kamala Harris fan and monthly donor, I really don’t think this was true either. As I followed her campaign I really did feel like she wasn’t prepared to push back effectively on the kinds of stuff like “you’re a cop,” that is inevitable, and it feels a bit like she might have had a chaotic campaign operation because her sister had undue influence. Still a bit disappointed, but I guess ultimately not surprised by the way it turned out.
Baud
FWIW, I don’t think our views on Iowa or NH should be colored by 2008 Obama good or 2016 Bernie bad. It should be based on the principle of allowing the most Democrats to weigh in and having a process that best represents the party and its diverse kinds of diversity.
Barbara
@MattF: Not just expose weaknesses but demonstrate whether they have the fight and ability to effectively push back on complete bullshit. I was surprised that Harris didn’t have an “elevator speech” type response for this.
WaterGirl
@PsiFighter37:
I disagree. It wasn’t the caucus system that screwed her over. It was her people not understanding the delegate rules that screwed her over in 2008.
Obama’s people were head and shoulders above Clinton people. They each chose their own people.
Barbara
@debbie: Well, I got contacted by Steyer on Facebook and I commented that I must be one of the people whose information he had because I made donations to Harris. No way I am engaging with Steyer after learning his campaign did that.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Nodding.
Baud
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
It should absolutely be digitized. The question is whether they should do more to ensure than the paper copies are accessible, if not there then somewhere else.
Another Scott
@Amir Khalid: Is there anything that AOC can’t do?!?
Cheers,
Scott.
Amir Khalid
Liverpool captain Jordan Henderson scores a rare goal at Anfield: 2-0. Liverpool look on course for 73 points out of 75 after 25 matches of the season; they will have won 24 and drawn just one. They are also still on course for a very rare Invincible (i.e. undefeated) season.
ETA: Mo Salah makes it 3-0. The red juggernaut marches on. YNWA!
Barbara
@Jinchi: I could not read this. I was trying to use the weekend to lower not aggravate my already high level of rage. Just the headline makes me think that there is an awful lot of wishful thinking in whatever wrote. “I know I started the fire that nearly burned the house down Grandma, but really, we’re going to build a much better and bigger house, just you see.” WaPo is giving Comey way too much space.
Immanentize
@Amir Khalid:
TRADITION!!!!!! It was good enough for us before the Civil War, trains, radios, cars, airplanes, and the internet! Dad gummit! It’s good enough for me, with my onion on my belt, today!
MattF
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Cutting out the actual National Archive professionals is an inexplicable error. That said, having a tantrum over it is useless.
Immanentize
@kindness: I agree. I knew it would get burried, but it has pissed me off to no end. That said, I am rather shocked they agreed to carry it forward past the SOTU address. Really surprised. I guess the old Senator comity power was stronger even than Moscow Mitch’s voodoo dolls.
Amir Khalid
@Immanentize:
Ah, I see. Much the same way that no American state has called up a citizen militia since forever, but certain people still feel a need to collect firearms in case that call should come.
Frankensteinbeck
@PsiFighter37:
My recollection is that the polling was good in 2016, but the 2-3% bump when Comey surrendered to his asshole misogynist need to spit on the woman he thought would win at the last minute pushed Trump over the line.
Immanentize
@MattF: Democratizing research is always hated by so-called scholars who think that they alone should have the keys to that kingdom. The most extreme example I know? The Dead Sea Scrolls and the many decades of Israeli barriers to their study.
Immanentize
@Amir Khalid: Similar, but there are more onions and fewer AK-47s at caucuses.
MattF
@Immanentize: Honestly, I don’t know the details of the dispute, and probably should keep my opinions about Loomis to myself. That said, I don’t see anything that’s unfixable.
Immanentize
@Frankensteinbeck: And don’t forget voter suppression. We will be seeing a LOT of that this year. With or without Comey or Barr, that alone will be a 1-2% Republican advantage at the starting gate.
Voters must overwhelm this year. But I already have seen articles like — “There might be many voters this year, are States ready?” (answer, not hardly).
WaterGirl
@Immanentize: There is no comity. That is not why it was delayed.
Probably Not an Asshole mistermix
@WaterGirl: Your wish, my command, as always.
Immanentize
@MattF: it’s not about Loomis — I really could not care less about his desires. The dispute, as I see it, is about whether information should be available to researchers in original paper form in a sealed room (only) at the Obama library or if it is OK to digitize the entire collection in a searchable format. I agree the Library of Congress should be involved, but their need for modernization is epic.
As you suggest, It is not even really much of a dispute — more like an elitist preference elevated to a crisis.
ETA I would really like to hear what Tom Levenson thinks about this as a microcosm of the “free data” movement in academia which had, as you probably know, a famous incident at MIT with a young man hacking JSTOR.
Amir Khalid
@Another Scott:
It seems the only thing that neither AOC can do is hold down a regular starting place at The Best Football Team in The World.
Immanentize
@WaterGirl: Why was it delayed, then?
zhena gogolia
Oh, boy, a new Bernie thread up top!
It’s going to be a long time to November.
Immanentize
@Amir Khalid: I wouldn’t count Occasio-Cortez out yet, she’s small, but fast and her footwork is amazing!
MattF
@zhena gogolia: Time to take a nap. Sweet dreams, and all…
delk
@Immanentize: if the Obama Library ever gets built.
Omnes Omnibus
@Immanentize: Because MeConnell didn’t have the votes to do it earlier.
Fair Economist
Late to this but yesyesyesyesyesyes.
Omnes Omnibus
@zhena gogolia: It isn’t a Bernie post. It is an AOC post. And I agree with MM that she has star power. We’ll see where she goes with it.
Frankensteinbeck
@Immanentize:
We’ve been seeing a lot of it the last 3 years. It hasn’t been enough to prevent a massive electoral shift. Not to say it doesn’t have a strong, negative effect. You are right that we must overwhelm. But we can do it.
I want to add that I am positive that it was misogyny on Comey’s part. His reputation and the consistency of his story afterwards makes it likely he believes now and believed then his ‘protect the FBI’ motivation. That motivation does not explain his actual actions, not just in that last minute bit of assholery but blatantly in the speech he gave earlier in the year where he described ‘we found nothing wrong’ as if it was ‘she is guilty but we can’t prove a crime in court.’ The piece that would fit the gap perfectly is the classic misogynist trait: A drastically lowered bar for attacking women. Reasons that seemed good enough to excoriate Clinton seemed insufficient to reveal the truth about Trump, and he’s blind to the lopsidedness of his judgment.
Amir Khalid
Mo Salah scores again after a typical lightning-fast Liverpool attack featuring him and Bobby “Dazzler” Firmino. The match ends Liverpool 4-0 Southampton. Liverpool are 22 points clear at the top, at least until Manchester City play tomorrow.
Frankensteinbeck
@Amir Khalid:
Is this soccer? (Pardon the need to be American to avoid misunderstandings.) Because 4-0 is a beating.
Amir Khalid
@Frankensteinbeck:
Yes it is. 4-0 is indeed a beating. But it’s not the worst one Southampton have suffered this season; that was losing 0-9 at home to Leicester City a few months ago.
WaterGirl
@Probably Not an Asshole mistermix: hahaha
WaterGirl
@Immanentize: If there were comity the last two weeks would not have been the shit show that it has been. Two weeks, two months, two years.
My best guess is that: a) McConnell got caught with imprecise language that opened the door for additional amendments before the next vote, and he couldn’t find a way out of it, or b) it’s good for the Rs politically or in some way the we can’t see yet.
Perhaps protecting against Trump victory laps in the interview, at the Superbowl, at the State of the Union? Victory laps that would make it even harder on the Rs who are running this year? Or there is something we are not seeing yet, but the will make this an advantage for the Rs.
Not asking in an asshole, challenging way, but because I respect your opinion, do you really think there is even a sliver of comity left in the senate?
jeffreyw
@Amir Khalid: Next time just say AOC scores because that would be cool.
jeffreyw
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): The paper copies of pencil and ink notes will surely be kept somewhere. Emails? Not seeing a problem. Formal stuff printed on letterhead – sure. Keep that in a file cabinet. So much is submitted electronically these days. I don’t see Presidential libraries as museums. Not everyone can do internet, neither can everyone journey to Chicago and spend days combing through paper archives.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Not everybody can travel to Chicago either if the records were not on the internet. I’d bet that quite a few of these records were originally in digital form.
PJ
@Immanentize: Having only digital storage of documents means that they are extremely vulnerable to all kinds of technological failures. Paper, on the other hand, if properly stored (or even if improperly stored), will last for centuries.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@MattF:
I don’t think that’s all that unusual. Presidential libraries are privately funded and usually is not taken over by the National Archives folk until after the President and spouse have passed.
Barb 2
@Mike J:
The WA state dems can be bought. I watch this happen at my caucus for Sanders. People were bussed in to vote foe Sander.
So yes the dems leadership can force their choice by choosing the delegates.
emjayay
Please label links to paywall sites like the Washington Post. I just used up my half an article or whatever it is I get for an entire month for nothing.
rikyrah
If they meant right , they would have it on the weekend.
But, they don’t mean right??
debbie
@emjayay:
You know you can delete all wapo cookies and the count will start all over again?
tam1MI
On the other hand, letting a billionaire candidate skate into contention without any vetting whatsoever is a pretty terrible idea.
Also, it’s not the DNC’s fault that black people refused to waver in their support for Joe Biden.
She’s probably extra bitter about Iowa, too, because one of the main reasons she was unable to effectively compete in a lot of those caucuses was because she used up most of her campaign money trying to be effective in Iowa, and had none left over for the caucus states.
janesays
I’ve got an even better proposal. Obviously eliminate caucuses altogether. But as far as scheduling primaries goes, do it like this: make four different groups of states, and four separate primaries, one per month from early February until early May. The first primary will include the 5 closest states in the nation in the results of the most recent presidential election. The second primary will include the next 15 closest states, as well as all of the territories. The third primary will include all of the remaining states won by the Democrat in the previous election (the number will vary every cycle) plus DC. The final primary will include all of the remaining states won by the Republican in the previous election (that number will also vary every cycle).
You could tweak it so that it reflects longer term trends (say, the last 3 presidential elections), but the gist is the same. We put the highest priority in the states where the November election is likely to be the closest. Since those are the states where the election is most likely to be decided, those are the people whose preference for our nominee should probably matter the most. After that, we prioritize the states where the Democratic nominee is most likely win. Finally we take into consideration the states where the Democratic nominee is most likely to lose.
If we did it based on 2016, here’s roughly how it would look for 2020 (I’m just going to go with the states plus DC and ignoring the territories for simplicity)…
February: Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida
March: Minnesota, Nevada, Maine, Arizona, North Carolina, Colorado, Georgia, Virginia, Ohio, New Mexico, Texas, Iowa, Oregon, Delaware, Connecticut
April: New Jersey, Rhode Island, Washington, Illinois, New York, Vermont, Maryland, Massachusetts, California, Hawaii, District of Columbia
May: South Carolina, Alaska, Mississippi, Utah, Missouri, Indiana, Louisiana, Montana, Kansas, Nebraska, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, South Dakota, Kentucky, Idaho, North Dakota, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Wyoming