The approval numbers for Rick Scott, Scott Walker, and John Kasich are pretty remarkable. I should clarify that the approval numbers for Walker aren’t quite as bad as or Kasich and Scott, but a slight plurality favors recalling Walker, which is bad news for any incumbent. Democrats have taken a tiny lead in the generic Congressional ballot for 2012, even when you average in Rasmussen polls.
It’s amazing how quickly Republicans have managed to alienate voters. You’d never know it from watching Morning Joe, but it’s the biggest political story of 2011 so far.
Turgidson
The only things you can possibly know from watching Morning Joe are that Scarbrough is an irredeemable know-nothing prick and Mika is a twit.
It’s a wonder they fill 3 hours a day with such useless jabbering, but they do it, somehow.
TuiMel
Just what would one “know” from watching Morning Joe?
Gawd I had that bunch.
JGabriel
DougJ @ Top:
Whenever I pull up charts at TPM or Pollster.com (sadly, now a subsidiary of HuffPo/AOL), those Rasmussen fuckers are first thing I filter out. Then internet polls and anything from Fox.
.
JGabriel
@Turgidson: Joe & Mika’s audience is largely composed of people who haven’t had their coffee yet.
.
Suffern ACE
Well, they don’t like Barrett much more than they did the last time they had a look at him, but that 47% against recall includes people who don’t like the idea of recalling elected officials…let them serve out their term…but will vote for someone else if given a chance.
beltane
Please don’t forget Chris Christie whose approval numbers are similarly tanking.
Turgidson
@JGabriel:
True. Yet I’m so cranky in a my coffee-less state that I’d probably damage my TV multiple times due to angry remote-throwing if I watched them. But since I am on the west coast, they’re finished being idiots before I watch any TV – and I listen to music on the way to work, not talk radio, anyway. Probably for the best.
beltane
Clearly, the Republicans need to move further to the right.
Newt Gingrich’s old Contract with America might have been a con job, but it was still better than the new GOP plan which is nothing more than “Die, peasant, die”.
Hawes
This is the real story.
The Ryan budget is a hypothetical. What these asshat governors are doing has a real impact on people. So when it comes time to vote in 2012, they will remember that more than a bunch of votes in Washington.
TuiMel
@TuiMel:
Should be “I hate that bunch,” which I do.
rob!
Its sad to think so many voters are so easily swayed. They voted for Democrats en masse in 2008, and just two years later they went “Oh, everything’s not fixed already? Ok, let’s hand things back to the people who caused the problems in the first place!”
NOW those self same people are saying “Gee, maybe that wasn’t a good idea, voting for Republicans.” Have these people no values or memory whatsoever?
Martin
Such is the consequence of a high turnout election followed by a low turnout one. They both have the same validity of result in the sense that people get voted out and new ones voted in, but the new ones learn far too late that they never had a mandate because most voters stayed home, and those people hate the new guy.
Its a dynamic feedback system like any other.
Suffern ACE
@Suffern ACE: I take that back. They like Barrett more than they did in 2010. I thought that race was closer, but was confusing it with Minnesota.
Bob
Willie Giest is an asshole, I’ve known that since the get-go. What I just found out is that he was senior producer for Tucker Carlson when he was at MSNBC.
SHITFUCKPISSCUNT!
Fred
I never watch Morning Joe which is why I KNOW IT! Why would ANYONE in their right mind (Besides someone like 2 time bush voter John Galt Cole) watch Morning Joe???
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@rob!: Maybe we should require every voter to bring in a report over what happened over the last two years. I’m still trying to figure out how to make that one work.
What if we gave everyone a quiz, and weighted their vote by the total on the quiz. The quiz would only have to be political questions.
ETA, now that I think about it, that would work great. If you randomly guess on a multiple choice test with four choices for each question, your vote would add a quarter point. If, on the other hand, you watch FOX, your vote would end up being zeroed out.
beltane
@Bob: He’s another member of the Born on 3rd Base club. We have way, way too many people in high places simply by virtue of the fact that Very Important People don’t always use birth control when they sleep together.
Triassic Sands
The headline about Kasich is classic:
Ah, those fickle American voters. Maybe they ought to pay a little more attention before the election. Unlike some Republican politicians I don’t think (but I can’t prove) that Kasich doesn’t pretend to be something other than what he is — a radical, right-wing, ideologically driven Wingnut. He’s proud of what he is, so why try to hide it. Obviously, he probably sees himself as more of a moderate conservative, but he has never struck me as someone who hides his true colors.
There’s a big chunk of his disapproval bloc who have no one to blame but themselves — unfortunately, a lot of other people suffer because of their stupidity.
What I find most shocking about these polls is the numbers —
Scott approval 29%
Kasich approval 33%
Christie approval 40%
Walker approval 43%
So, of these four governors, Walker is the most popular. What the hell does that say about Wisconsin voters? Walker has been the most visible and gotten a lot more negative publicity, and he’s only down to 43%. There is no hope for the Cheeseheads.
Suffern ACE
@Belafon (formerly anonevent): No. That would be wrong. But we could only allow people to vote who claimed never to change their minds about anything. Or go back to that system where other people do that voting for you, regardless of whether you are living or dead on election day.
beltane
Rick Scott is now within the MOE of the crazification factor. He can sink no lower. This is good news for Republicans.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Triassic Sands: Maybe he should try to sell the Packers.
Hawes
@Triassic Sands:
Obama wins Florida, Ohio, Michigan and even Wisconsin because the people there hate their GOP govs.
And it’s got to be worth six or seven House seats.
If people got pissed because Obama was giving people health care, imagine how pissed they’ll be at people taking it away?
Dave
@Triassic Sands:
I think Florida voters were even dumber. Hell, they KNEW Scott was a criminal and voted him in anyway. What the heck did they thing was going to happen?
Triassic Sands
Oh, nonsense. The biggest story, just ask him, would have to be Donald Trump’s decision on Celebrity Apprentice. I don’t actually know what that decision is/was, which just shows how out of touch I am. The second biggest political story would be Trump’s decision not to run for president. The third biggest political story would be Trump’s decision to maybe run for president. The fourth biggest political story would be Trump’s successfully forcing Obama to reveal his long form birth certificate. Etc.
My sister told me that she had heard that Trump was reconsidering a run — if so, and if he chose to run after all, then that would become the biggest political story in history, ever, anywhere, period. That would then be trumped by his winning the election with the largest victory margin in the history of elections (including high school class officers).
Jeffro
This is the (almost) far end of the pendulum…people are starting to realize that the Rs really mean it when they say they’ll cut the social safety net to shreds, and so hippie punching looks a little less appealing than usual.
A little.
MikeJ
@Dave: They thought they were in Louisiana.
ruemara
@rob!:
no. SATSQ.
Martin
@Triassic Sands:
Kasich won an election with a 49% turnout with 49% of the vote. 24% of eligible voters voted for him. 76% of eligible voters didn’t vote for him. Surely some of the 51% who didn’t vote would have voted for him had they shown up, but you never know what’s hiding in that minefield.
When you get into office with a minority of votes among a minority of eligible voters, you need to tread very carefully.
Jewish Steel
@Fred: Fred, my dear Fred, do you understand that you are busting out John for something that he admits to readily and everyone here knows?
Spaghetti Lee
@Triassic Sands:
I think maybe it’s because Walker’s been more visible, it’s caused his base to rally around him more tightly, so to speak?
@Hawes:
“Even” Wisconsin? Wisconsin’s voted D in presidential elections every year since 1992. Wisconsin being in the blue column is to be expected.
Triassic Sands
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
If he did that, he might break through the magical 25% (+ or – 3% — there is some number, but I don’t think we really know what it is exactly).
@Hawes:
I wish I were half that optimistic. You see, when I look at the 2010 election, the candidates, and today’s approval ratings I see stupid voters. They’ll still be stupid in 2012, and the thing about stupid voters is they do really stupid things…like vote for Republicans. We need the GOP to ratchet up their campaign to kill Medicare and Medicaid.
@Dave:
I know what you mean, but I can’t decide which voters seem the dumbest. The fact that Scott got elected sounds like Florida voters should get the award. But the fact that they recognize their mistake and the Cheesers apparently don’t argues for Wisconsin voters. It’s a tough call.
beltane
@Hawes: The front page of GOS has a Florida poll showing Bill Nelson and Obama with very high re-elect numbers. The old people seem to be seeing Paul Ryan as a young thug trying to mug them in the Publix parking lot.
jl
A horribly confused and one sided article, that attempts to persuade the vast corporate serf population of the US that the current 9 percent unemployment rate is structural, cannot be reduced, and, well, nothing can be done.
Read it and find the omission, mistakes and unbalanced analysis.
Unemployment: The New Norm
by Jeremy Greenfield
Thursday, May 26,
finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/112786/unemployment-new-norm-fins
hilts
“You’d never know it from watching Morning Joe”
Morning Blow is nothing but a super-sized, putrid, steaming pile of excrement.
One more example of Joe Scarborough’s douchebaggery
A Keith Olbermann Hint From Morning Joe
thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-05-25/keith-olbermann-hint-from-morning-joe/?cid=hp:beastor…
Little Boots
winning (in my best Charlie Sheen).
but really, I think they overreached and enough people are noticing. a thousand things can go wrong, but for now, everything says Republican disaster for the next few years.
Let us revel.
PPOG Penguin
@Triassic Sands: The still-indispensable Day Today has the coverage you’re looking for:
“Spartacus, this is huge history happening, isn’t it?”
“It’s bigger than that, Chris, it’s large. If you’ve got a history book at home, take it out, throw it in the bin – it’s worthless. The history books will now have to be rewritten.”
“What will they say?”
“They’ll quite simply say ‘
John Major punched the QueenDonald Trump chose to run.’ Everything else will be a footnote.”jl
@Triassic Sands: Cheeseheads booze too much?
Martin
@Dave: Scott won an election with a 43% turnout with 49% of the vote. Only 21% of registered voters voted for him.
Should note, Scott might have gotten every voter that wanted him in office. Voters should learn that you can’t win if you don’t play.
Svensker
@Fred:
Why do you come here if you don’t like the host? Quelle point?
Little Boots
they did it. they admitted what they really want. this will end very well indeed.
Little Boots
Paul Ryan maybe the dumbest bitch in the history of Congress. Which is awesome.
mattH
What this really seems to show is that GOTV and base motivation is the most important thing, especially in midterm elections. Maybe you could argue that if Obama had not tried to make nice with the whackjobs, and had inspired and solidified the liberal base, the midterms wouldn’t have been so bad (Bush
20042002 for an example), but at the same time, maybe he’d have gotten less done and would be a guaranteed one-termer for it. Hard to say.Still, GOTV and motivating the base does wonders in midterms.
Little Boots
@mattH:
No, this really does show that everyone hates an honest Republican. Everyone hates a Republican when they know what they really want.
Little Boots
seriously, get this, people. everyone hates the true Republican agenda. They rarely get to see it. but when they do … absolute hatred. every time.
Spaghetti Lee
@Triassic Sands:
OK, look, enough. 43% approval means 57% disapproval. And it’s not like the 43% is all made up of confused independents. There’s plenty of psycho plutocrats who would absolutely love to see unions destroyed and public utilities sold to the Koch Brothers, and for whom voting for Walker was no accident. The kind of people who find 7,000 votes in a box in the back of their van when their right-wing judicial candidate is in trouble, you know the type.
I think the protests in Wisconsin were a very large part of what got the anti-Republican ball rolling so early. Without them, Walker would have shoved it all through, his partners in crime would have been emboldened, and we’d probably be seeing even more shitty legislation coming down the pike than we can imagine. The protests were in effect what gave people time to wake up.
I want the Democrats to make big gains in 2012 as badly as anybody, but I don’t think calling the voters who could make the difference unteachable idiots is the best way to do it. Yes, I get that it’s frustrating that they keep getting suckered into voting for Republicans (although given how low turnout was in 2010 and how high a gear the Republican noise machine was spinning, I’m not sure how much of it can actually be attributed to independents so much as a very dedicated and bloodthirsty right-wing base), but you know, we’re not entitled to their votes just because the other side is bad. We have to earn them like any other political party.
It just seems to me like there’s this tendency sometimes to instantly dismiss entire states and regions as full of idiots when they make the mistake of voting for a Republican. I think I’ve seen on various liberal blogs, every state north of the Mason-Dixon line referred to as the “Alabama of the North” or a state that would fit in in the South, or would fit there if not for a large urban area.
This seems to be the whole progressive purity thing writ large. Yes, once you get out of the 30% or whatever of the population that’s liberal by nature and will vote Democrat without being asked, you’re going to have to get the rest of your majority from people who aren’t as liberal as you, and who can be fooled easily by the other side (and how much can they really be blamed for that? The right-wing noise machine is louder and more ubiquitous than any other propaganda outfit in history), and who you will have to spend more time convincing that it’s in their best interests. Already there’s a lot of people waking up to that fact. If the Dems soar to new heights in 2012, I think it will be partially attributed to working class whites shifting parties. I just don’t think calling everyone an idiot if they haven’t been a lifelong dyed-in-the-wool Democrat is going to help.
Little Boots
getting them to actually see it is the tricky part. it shouldn’t be, by all rules of logic, but it is. they almost never see it. but when they do …
mattH
I can tell you don’t live in a red state.
^_-
Little Boots
@Spaghetti Lee:
idiots is not right. but blind? yeah, people have been ridiculously blind, going on 30 years now. that is what we have to overcome. I think their starting to get it, really, but the fact that it is difficult is a problem. but they are definitely starting to see, no doubt.
aisce
@Triassic Sands:
i think it shows that tribalism is stronger under duress. it’s easier to rally around the leader when he’s under attack. a hundred thousand people went out against walker. he didn’t back down. nor, if we’re being honest with ourselves, get particularly nasty in response. no more so than usual republican scummy behavior. rick scott would have threatened to murder people in the streets if he saw that many protesters.
whereas there’s been no massive one-time swell against any other governor. in ohio and florida and new jersey, it’s been a steady attrition of support instead. coupled with a lack of legislative support, in some cases. in wisconsin, it was a true united effort between both branches.
fasteddie9318
I have a question. I should probably email it to Nate Silver but I don’t feel like it right now. When pollsters are identified as R or D pollsters, is that a self-identification? Because if it’s not then I can’t figure out what more Reichsmissen needs to do to earn an R next to their name.
Little Boots
@mattH:
there’s a lot of old people in those red states. and they like their medicare and their social security. that’s what I’m talking about. the rest is such bullshit. but when the bullshit slips, and when the reality pokes through,that’s when things change.
fasteddie9318
@Little Boots:
And the most consistently butthurt, which is both amazing and awesome.
Little Boots
@fasteddie9318:
heh.
although I just noticed “maybe” should be may be.
I am abashed.
Mnemosyne
@Spaghetti Lee:
I think you’re probably right about that — Walker’s gotten so much negative national coverage that the people circling the wagons may not even be all that fond of him, but don’t like their governor (and, by extension, their state) being attacked.
Little Boots
@Mnemosyne:
nah, he’s hated, truly. he’ll fall like the rest.
does anyone really believe polling that completely?
Mnemosyne
@Little Boots:
Yeah, but you’re forgetting that they’re all hated. None of them have an approval rating over 50 percent. We’re debating which ugly dog is slightly more attractive than the others.
Anya
People hate Republicans now, but most voters are idiots with the same attention span as two year olds. Besides, angry white old people will continue to vote for the assholes, who are determined to rob them of their safety net because their irrational fear of gays, browns and the black president trumps everything.
Martin
@fasteddie9318:
It depends on the poll. Some polls base their population sample on actual voter registration. In this case you have two phenomena taking place:
1) The pollster samples at the same ratio as registration. Since Democrats register at almost 1.5x the rate as Republicans nationally, you should see a much larger Democratic sample than Republican. This is fairly uncommon, IMO.
2) The pollster samples at roughly equal ratios, regardless of registration ratios. This appears to be more common with approval, etc. polls.
If you see low Indy responses then it’s usually self-identification during the poll. For approval polls, this doesn’t usually matter much provided you’re getting a proper cross-section of the electorate. But as we get into primary season, particularly in states with closed primaries, how those poll participantes are registered matters a lot. You could have approval ratings of 20% across the full electorate but if only 25% of voters are registered in your party and you have a 60% approval rating among that population, you’re probably set going into the general.
Rasmussen suffers from two problems in my experience:
1) They oversample Republicans. This isn’t necessary wrong since Republican turnout almost always beats Democratic by a mile, but they tend to oversample even with this taken into account.
2) They tend to over-emphasize in polls with intermediate values. They tend to push participants away from neutral positions toward the edges more than other pollsters. You want to do this somewhat, since participants have a natural inclination toward ‘no opinion’, but participants also have a natural inclination toward ‘status quo’ when pressed. Ras tends to use this to deliver the kind of results their customers want. You’ll see this quite prominently when they shift from primary polling to general election. Suddenly their polls will go from being out of agreement with others into agreement.
Chuck Butcher
I’d say recent history says the Democrats will effectively follow the GOP rightward. There may be more liberal Sen in the (D) caucus than previously but the end result will be rightward.
The argument will be that “responsible” people don’t let others crash the economy. The usual excuses will be made there and here.
It really is a shame that Ron Wyden keeps thinking there are reasonable people on the other side, he’s a pretty good guy but he keeps believing despite all evidence. I know for a fact that the GOP Sens have stuck a knife deep in his back previously.
mattH
You know, I really don’t think I can explain what it is like to be in a truly red state. I’m in arguably the redest of the red; the last state to give Bush 50% approval ratings while having the lowest per capita representation in the military; a place where IGMFU is integrated subconciously and prosperity gospel was a part of the majority religion long before it was cool; the state where my longest serving (carpetbagging) senator has gone from Ted Kennedy’s BFF to a guy who repudiates his own bills as being too liberal (Machiavelli might be proud?).
People seem unable to look more than a footstep ahead of themselves (#1 location of Ponzie schemes in the US) are the norm, not the exception. It’s an interesting place to live; too bad I’m not a little more unethical. Might even be fun.
mattH
Maybe the later leads to the former?
There and here though.
It took a Great Depression to get SS and labor reforms. I shudder to think what it will take to get health reform.
Martin
@Chuck Butcher: Well, the main problem is that approval polls don’t mean fuck. What matters is who shows up to pull the lever, and Dems truly suck at this. If Dem turnout could reliably match GOP, that rightward march would end.
Thoughtful Black Co-Citizen
What’s amazing is people keep electing these fuckers.
It’s like they figure if politicians lie to get in office, the GOPols must be lying when they lay out their plans to fuck over everyone except the very rich.
Surprise, assholes!
Jebediah
@Jewish Steel:
Yeah, I was going to ask the same thing – why does he keep flogging that? And – “Galt”? Is he hoping John’s feelings will be hurt, and he’ll shut down the blog?
In news that makes more sense, I bought a tele off the craigslist last weekend. I had been told that tele’s are hard to play, but it seems to have the same string/fret arrangement as most other guitars…
kdaug
@Dave: Don’t rule out the Diebold factor.
There was a mysterious warehouse fire in Houston, which had just elected the first openly gay mayor of a major (1M+) city in the US, on the eve of the gubernatorial election here in Texas.
Funny thing, the warehouse held all of Houston’s voting machines.
New ones were shipped in.
Perry won.
Cliff
I don’t know what the hell DougJ is talking about. The Republicans have a mandate given to them by the overwhelming conservative majority in the nation and Jesus Christ hissownself, and they are gonna ride the Hate Train to Fuckhippyville for the rest of eternity.
Mnemosyne
@Thoughtful Black Co-Citizen:
I think it’s the kind of twisted thinking that Fred Clark has documented in the Left Behind books. Because the bad guy will come to you promising peace, anyone who works towards peace is automatically suspect and only people who promise war are trustworthy. The Republicans aren’t suspect, because their voters do know what they’re getting.
It’s the same mentality I’ve seen from some firebaggers: they’d rather stick with the Republicans because, as bad as they are, at least you know what you’re getting.
bob h
If you’ve alienated voters do you perform a self-examination and alter course, or do you double down? We know what Republicans do.
aamom
@Cliff: Cliff you made my morning. Have a Happy Holiday all!
spark
At what point does “the swinging of the pendulum” become “the violent rattling of a self-destructing machine”?
celticdragonchick
@rob!:
American culture is not geared towards memory, nor thinking more then 15 minutes into the future. This has serious consequences for the stability and health of our form of government, in my view.
WereBear
Part of the problem of persuasion is that people who suck up right wing propaganda don’t get out much; media-wise.
They watch Fox Noise; they listen to Limbaugh; they hang with friends and family who think the exact same way they do. Look at the volcanic reaction from holiday exposure to other points of view.
These people who keep themselves in the right wing bubble are lost. And they want to stay that way.
Hal
I’m actually shocked voters are alienated. Republicans said what they would do if elected, and they did it. Now voters are pissed off because it turns out once again that cutting services and lowering taxes on the rich doesn’t actually magically create jobs.
ppcli
@Hal:
Nor, surprisingly enough, do restricting abortion, redefining rape, banning gay marriage and busting unions. The Republicans seem to be genuinely surprised that business as usual (like simply slapping the label “job-killing” on any bill they don’t like and “job-creating” on any bill they do like) isn’t fooling people this time.
Mike in NC
Not really (been voting since ’72).
Janeane The Acerbic Goblin
@beltane:
But the MSM says Christie is wildly popular and should run for President! He’s a GOP rising star! Everyone loves him!
Oh, wait, it’s the MSM who love him. His state and the rest of the country can’t stand him.
Todd Dugdale
The Right saw the 2010 election as proof that the majority of the voters agree with the Tea Party, and that Republicans are loved. In fact, they still believe that. Any polling showing otherwise is dismissed as ‘biased’.
The reality is that the Republicans made huge promises of jobs and economic recovery. Walker promised 250k new jobs in his State, for example. The Democrats offered a message of “stay the course”. Swing voters gave the Republicans the benefit of a doubt, as they always do.
Instead, these newly-elected Republicans devoted themselves to beating up liberals and pushing a radical social conservative agenda. They did this because they told themselves that the electorate loved them and would continue to give them the benefit of a doubt.
While Republicans hope for a bad economy to hang around Obama’s neck, that same economy will turn the voters against the Republicans because they won’t create jobs as they promised. They think that the electorate will give them a free pass, because they are loved.
Their own delusions will ruin them. There aren’t enough “reality-based” Republicans left to change their Party’s course.
Elie
@Triassic Sands:
Both Minnesota and Wisconsin have undergone a change from their previously solid “liberal/progressive” cultures. I do not know why and expect that there are trends unique to each. That said, polls etc., are a snapshot in time and don’t always reflect the change that may be happening. I suspect Walker’s relatively higher rating is moving and probably will be progressing downwards.
I also think that the political frame is slowly (very slowly), changing and becoming less reactionary. This will of course remain an uphill struggle as the MSM and our entertainment based political discourse will make it difficult to move into adult, fact driven and consensus based discourse… no money or buzz in that. That reality, of course, will keep bringing the crazies and extremists in the political syste into more focus and overweigh their relative importance.
Kathy in St. Louis
Anya@57′
I am an ‘old person’ who likes to think I’m an independent. I mean, I’ve voted in every election since 1964 and I’ve voted for exactly 2 republican candidates a total of one time each, so wouldn’t that make me an independent. Anyway, you are wrong about old people being dumb enough to vote Republican next time. This social security and medicare scare won’t go away anytime soon. And think about it…people who have parents on these programs ain’t too psyched about them going away, either. With times as tough as they are right now, younger people wouldn’t be able to care for sick parents on top of all their other obligations. Nope, the Republicans have truly screwed up bigtime. I’m enjoying their mess way more than I should be.