There will be more rioting in Greece:
After a tumultuous day of political gamesmanship, Prime Minister George A. Papandreou called off his plan to hold a referendum on Greece’s new loan deal with the European Union and vowed to continue in office despite rumors he would resign and growing pressure from within his own party to do so.
In an address to his party’s central committee on Thursday evening, Mr. Papandreou said there was no need for a referendum now that the opposition New Democracy Party had said for the first time on Thursday that it would back the loan deal.
Trying to capitalize on what appeared to be a major political coup, the prime minister invited that party to become “co-negotiators” on the new deal and later said that talks on a unity government should begin immediately.
Just kicking the can down the road a couple weeks.
Reality Check
This is what happens when you surrender to a supranational unaccountable body like the EU.
arguingwithsignposts
I read that article at NYT earlier and the thing that struck me? Not one single quote from or even acknowledgement of the average Greek person on the street. They don’t even pretend anymore.
JGabriel
In other news:
Ruh roh.
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Moonbatting Average
I haven’t really frequented Sadly No! since Gavin M. and Brad R. stopped writing there, but there used to be this troll that called its self “Gary Rupert”. Reality Check reminds me of it.
jwb
The real fun is going to start when Greece inevitably goes under and decides to leave the Euro. It will only be at that point, when the bank runs are fast furious, that members of the EU will decide if they really want to be a political union, with all the responsibilities that that entails. I would put the odds at less than 25% that they’ll be able to do it, and the alternative is that the Eurozone blows apart. I have to wonder what the economic collateral damage to that will be.
cathyx
I find what’s happening over there to be very fascinating, in a sad, sickening, kind of way.
JGabriel
@Reality Check:
Greece’s problem, or one of its problems, is that it’s on the Euro, not that it’s in the EU. Several countries are in the EU without being on the Euro — Britain, for instance.
I know these finer points encompass knowledge, which as a conservative you don’t give a shit about, but you’re not even making an effort to deceive your readers into thinking you know what you’re talking about. A well-read 12 year old could have pointed out the difference between being on the Euro and being in the EU.
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lamh34
@JGabriel: on that topic, Booman has a post-up that asks an interesting question, IMHO.
Watch Who Defends Cain
by BooMan.
Apparently, Ginny Thomas and Mark Sanford’s wife are somehow defending Cain…http://nomoremister.blogspot.com/2011/11/cain-campaign-time-to-deploy-horndogs.html.
David Koch
I don’t even like Greek food.
ericblair
@jwb:
I’m hoping that there are secret teams of financial gnomes in each of the EU finance ministries doing the what-ifs and the contingency planning, but who the hell knows. I’d also be interested to know if there are secret teams of artists designing new drachmas and lire and pounds and pesetas as well, or whether we’re just going to dust off the old ones.
The only alternative I can see is to make a two-tier Grownup Table and Kid’s Table in the EMU, because Greece isn’t going to turn into Germany however much everybody promises to do better this time.
David Koch
The fact that so many different women complained that Cain was harassing them only proves that Cain is innocent.
If he was guilty, they would have said nothing.
El Cid
I think that they need to be very, very clear about this: You commoners will pay dearly for every cent Goldman Sachs helped the state lose in derivatives-backed investment gathering. You will suffer, and we are not here to listen to your grumbling about how difficult it is to pay for the security of the investments of your Masters.
Jack
This just points out that persons created by politicians (corporations – and the bonds they own) are more important that person created by God (Greeks).
Not to worry, this is just Capitalism destroying Democracy – just like it destroyed communism.
MikeJ
@ericblair:
Originally getting onto the euro was supposed to mean proving you could sit at the grown up table. That never happened with Greece.
Jack
This just points out that persons created by politicians (corporations – and the bonds they own) are more important that person created by God (Greeks).
Not to worry, this is just Capitalism destroying Democracy – just like it destroyed communism.
cathyx
@El Cid: And that should be directed at everyone in every country. Not just Greece.
dadanarchist
While it’s too bad the referendum won’t happen, I’m glad Papandreou out-maneuvered the chickenshits in the right-wing opposition NDP. The NDP – who helped Greece get into this mess in the first place (Athens Olympics) – have been sitting on the sidelines shit-talking PASOK despite their own contribution to Greece’s mess and despite the fact Papandreou is doing exactly what they would have done, except he’s trying to get better terms.
Anyway, at this point, Greek default is a matter of when, not if. The more interesting question is: will there be revolution?
Yutsano
There were some rumblings a few weeks ago of carving the Eurozone into three pieces but it would wreck the economies of the losers too bad. I wonder if that got buried fast.
El Cid
Maybe they could suggest an unbiased, disciplined, austerity focused, I dunno, “Regime of the Colonels” or some such.
J. Michael Neal
@El Cid: Eh, Greece’s problems go way beyond that and the wounds are largely self-inflicted. Most of the rest weren’t caused by Goldman, but rather the combination of fiscal and monetary policies being set at different levels and a monetary policy tailored for the Germans.
The reason Goldman became involved in Greece in the first place was because the Greek government asked them to help so that they could deliver fraudulent fiscal reports to the EU. The reason the reports needed to be fraudulent is because Greeks are terrible about actually paying their taxes and have chosen to set up a system that makes it very difficult for the government to make them do so.
Violet
Just heard on NPR that if Greece leaves the Euro, they’ll try to use the Greek-marked Euros as their de facto Drachmas for the short term. Which could then lead to horrific fraud as people from other countries will go to Greece, load up on cheap Greek Euros and use them to load cash machines in other Eurozone countries. Among other types of fraud, of course.
KG
@JGabriel: I studied up on the EU while in law school, actually, it and the African Union were the basis of a paper I wrote (one that could have been published if the Irish hadn’t rejected a treaty that was pending at the time, 2005ish). As I read up on it, and on international law, I kept drawing the same conclusion: if they played it out, Europe would become one giant nation state. Given recent history (in European terms, the last 300 years), I didn’t figure it would actually last, but that was always my hunch… and always something no one wanted to talk about.
JGabriel
MikeJ:
Given that the ECB is still demanding austerity from everyone (The austerity will continue until spending improves!), despite austerity just making things worse, arguably portends that the ECB doesn’t have a grown-up table.
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Chris
@KG:
Yeah, I agree – that the EU will either end up being one giant nation-state, or that it’ll just be canceled. We’ll see.
JGabriel
KG:
I didn’t research it as you did, but it was always my hunch that the only way the project could work, long-term, is if it was a stepping stone to tighter integration and eventual “federal” or centralized government for Europe. We’ve already seen how well a loose confederation works in this country , circa 1781-1789 — i.e., it didn’t.
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Original Lee
I was wondering why the Greek Defense minister cashiered their chief military officers. Was this an effort to avoid a coup while they backed the NPD into a corner?
jwb
@ericblair: No, Greece isn’t going to become Germany, but Greece could play Mississippi to Germany’s New York.
El Cid
There’s also this.
Calouste
@jwb:
The Eurozone won’t fall apart. Maybe some bits will fall off, like Greece, but as the Eurozone is basically the successor to the DeutschMark zone that has existed since the 1970s (most European Central Bank’s policies constisted of doing what the Bundesbank did, except 24 hours later), the economic intergration in the core is fairly strong.
Short Bus Bully
At what point does Capitalism turn into Feudalism?
Or has that already happened?
burnspbesq
@jwb:
Everybody south of Switzerland defaults (with the possible exception of Slovenia, which is pretty well run), and every major French and German bank is insolvent. The ripple effects? Damned if I know where they stop.
Calouste
@Violet: Greece is a bit too far from the rest of the Euro zone for that to be profitable.
NobodySpecial
@Short Bus Bully: About five minutes after the bankers and merchants realize they can install the rulers.
dadanarchist
I forgot who said it, but during the anti-globalization demonstrations of the late 1990s, someone suggested that the defining ideological conflict of the 21st century would not be between capitalism and anti-capitalism, but between capitalism and democracy.
Anyway, the real choice might be between Rosa Luxemburg’s old chestnut: soshulism or barbarism.
jwb
@Calouste: We’ll see. Even France is coming under pressure now. But I think the decisive country will be Italy, and that decision will have to be made soon after Greece falls, since the bank runs will then accelerate.
El Cid
@J. Michael Neal:
Um, okay — if it was your intention to make Goldman Sachs’ role sound worse than what I had briefly and mainly ironically written, by suggesting that Goldman Sachs had a clear financial interest in assisting the Greek government in committing massive, continent-wide, economy-threatening accounting fraud, well, hey, be my guest!
El Cid
I say we speculate not so much on the worst outcome might be, but the weirdest.
PeakVT
@Yutsano: Some people have suggested that DE/NL/AT/FI and probably FR/BE should leave the Euro as a block. That would leave the troubled countries with their external debt denominated in their own currency, but would still allow an adjustment between north and south. I seriously doubt such a plan was ever considered at official levels.
SiubhanDuinne
@Yutsano:
Euro est omnia divisa in partes tres?
piratedan
@El Cid: Greece sells itself to the highest bidder, which happens to be Disney and they make another run at the theme park gig, but change it up for adult themed, historical themed and an exclusive park of debauchery, goats and clergy optional.
Calouste
@jwb:
I don’t think France will topple. France historically has a strong and centralized state and they will just nationalize banks if push comes to shove. If Italy goes, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and some minor states will go as well, and the Eurozone will be limited to Germany, France, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Austria and possibly Finland. Belgium, well, they don’t have a government to decide one way or the other, so it will probably accelarate the partition.
PeakVT
@El Cid: The Eurozone asking China to bail them out isn’t weird enough for you?
Cliff in NH
@El Cid:
Well, that’s what they did……
I could did up some links if you want ..
Violet
@SiubhanDuinne:
Nicely done.
NobodySpecial
@El Cid: The EU sells Greece to Rupert Murdoch.
Geysergazers
“Is anybody there? Does anybody care? Does anyone see what I see?”
It is abundantly clear that the Greek people will NOT indenture themselves to the German Banksters (who imprudently loaned the $ in the first place) regardless of what the 1%ers “agree” to. I agree with the People.
MikeJ
@Geysergazers:
Otter said it better.
arguingwithsignposts
@Cliff in NH: Now, now, let’s not argue over who leveraged whom.
marginalized for stating documented facts
Obama has been kicking the can down the road for 3.5 years.
Out-of-control military spending? Increase it by 8% while freezing all other domestic spending. That’s unsustainable and someday soon, it’ll blow up in our faces.
Out-of-control health care costs in America? Pass a non-reform ACA law that forces everyone to buy unaffordable private health insurance guarantee to rise in price infinitely, with no cost controls. That’s unsustainable and someday soon, it’ll blow up in our faces.
America is turning into a police state? Obama’s solution is to tear up the constitution and wipe his ass with it by ordering the assassination of a U.S. citizen without even charging him with a crime, then declare it all perfectly legal. That’s unsustainable and someday soon, it’ll blow up in our faces.
Peak Oil? Obama bails out Detroit without requiring ’em to switch to manufacturing electric cars or increase their fuel efficiency. That’s unsustainable and someday soon, it’ll blow up in our faces.
Wall Street fraud blows up the world economy? Obama bails out all the banks without reforming the financial system, so that the Wall Street gamblers give themselves even bigger bonuses this year than in 2007, and the bankers get rich on taxpayer money while foreclosing on taxpayers’ houses. That’s unsustainable and someday soon, it’ll blow up in our faces.
Out-of-control War On Drugs? Obama ridicules petitioners who demand and end to it. That’s unsustainable and someday soon, it’ll blow up in our faces.
Papandreou is a piker. Obama is the all-time master of “kick the can down the road.”
Linda Featheringill
@SiubhanDuinne:
Ahh. All of Euro is divided into three parts. [Google translate]
You’re so clever! :-)
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
@marginalized for stating documented facts: aw, you must be soooo bummed out
beltane
@jwb: That would mean giving Greece a considerable amount of veto power over Germany. The wealthier states in our country are politically somewhat disadvantaged in comparison with states such as Mississippi; I just can’t see something like this happening in Europe in the near future.
beltane
@piratedan: Such a theme park already exists but it happens to be located in Berlusconi’s Italy.
Calouste
@Linda Featheringill:
First sentence of Julius Ceasar’s De Bello Gallico, slightly adapted.
piratedan
@beltane: they need better marketing ;-) and I wonder if they’re hiring tour guides….
beltane
Here is one interesting take on the crisis: http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/occupy-the-space-to-the-left-of-the-european-council-theres-a-lot-of-it/ It would appear that the Germans are not quite as virtuous as their hype would suggest.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
OT: A coworker of mine brought this quote to my attention. It was made by Karen Finney about Cain:
I wanted to know what everyone thought about it. This is the statement being waved around Republican circles, like Fox, to show that Liberals are being racist.
Odie Hugh Manatee
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
Truth hurts. All we have to do is quote Ann Coulter on Fox, who recently said: “our blacks are better than theirs”.
That says it all.
One thing I have to admire Cain for is his getting on the lifetime grifter train on the right. He’s ‘their’ black guy and as long as he plays his cards right, he’s going to cash in on it.
Big time. I expect he will have his own Fox radio/cable show after he loses this. He will be rolling in dough and powerful people on the right for the rest of his life.
Because he’s not one of “those” people.
Sly
Goddamn Greeks and their insistence on democracy. They walk around like they invented the damn thi…. Oh, wait.
OzoneR
@marginalized for stating documented facts:
LOL
mclaren
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
That’s not harsh. That’s true.
As someone else remarked on this forum a few days ago, “Herman Cain is the current house nigger of the Republican party.”
mclaren
@OzoneR:
LOL, clown. Watch Obama waffle and then back down on those supposed new fuel efficiency standards, allegedly “to be proposed in the next few weeks.”
READING COMPREHENSION FAIL, halfwit.
The claim was that Obama bailed out Detroit without making stricter fuel efficiency & a shift to electric cars a requirement of the bailout. That happens to be true.
The time to hit the banks and Detroit and Wall Street with stringent new regulations is when those institutions are down and out, laid low by their own greed and incompetence. You tell the bastards, “Yeah, we’ll bail you out…but at a steep cost. You must accept extensive new regulations on your financial dealings, Wall Steet, no more giant bonuses for your employees and no more crazy risky derivatives that blow up the world economy. You must accept harsh penalties for all your fraud, banks, and many of your CEOs and boards of directors will have to go to prison for fraud in the subprime mortgage con game. You must accept government-mandated shifts to an all-electric fleet of American vehicles within [X number of years]. Otherwise, no bailout. You die. You go broke. You sit by the roadside holding up a cardboard sign that reads `Will perpetrate criminal financial fraud for food.'”
Instead, Obama waits 3 years before he even announces that he’s “about to propose” new fuel efficiency strandard. And watch what happens. Mark my words…after a furor of lobbying and a frenzy of right-wind op eds, Obama will once again back down and give up on fuel efficiency.
Obama is indeed the grand master of kicking the can down the road. In fact, Obama has kicked the can so far down the road on so many unsustainable crises in America that nobody can even the see the can anymore. You’d need the goddamn Hubble telescope in orbit to see that fucking can now.
OzoneR
@mclaren: Oh no, don’t bother to back up your claim or anything, we totally take you seriously when you don’t do that.
Short Bus Bully
@mclaren:
I don’t give a fuck who said it originally or who you are talking about, but putting that shit up in here is a stupid fucking racist thing to do. Knock it off.
Uncle Clarence Thomas
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@mclaren:
Oh, you think you’re so smart, with your facts and figures, but if you will recall, he never actually used those exact words in that specific sequence during his fistoric campaign for president in 2008, now did he? Did he? C’mon, baby, you know it’s true. Just admit it.
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Sly
@mclaren:
Question: At what point were the banks “down and out” and “laid low”? When the Bush Administration and the Fed had to beg them to accept asset purchases? Or when the Bush Administration and the Fed demanded they accept capital injections or face an FDIC audit?
OzoneR
@mclaren:
Oh, I had forgotten Obama got elected in 2006
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/president-obama-announces-national-fuel-efficiency-policy
Uncle Clarence Thomas
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@lamh34:
All I can say is, Ginni greatly enjoyed the Double Sausage Stuffed Special Mr. Cain and I provided to her one happy evening several years ago.
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Roy G.
Two thoughts:
One, nobody wants to admit how much the US looks like Greece, in terms of the rich avoiding paying taxes and parking their money in offshore tax havens.
Two, everybody is silent about the MF Global meltdown, which will increasingly resemble Fukushima, both in its destruction and attempts to downplay its severity.
Short Bus Bully
Bunch of shitty ass trolls out tonight, WTF?
The Raven
The beatings will continue until morale improves.
shano
Transaction taxes will claw some money back from those fuckers.
Tax third party derivatives out of existence.
Tax high speed frontrunning & trading.
Herbal Infusion Bagger
“In an address to his party’s central committee on Thursday evening, Mr. Papandreou said there was no need for a referendum now that the opposition New Democracy Party had said for the first time on Thursday that it would back the loan deal.”
Memo to self: Never play a game of chicken with Mr. Papandreou.
That’s a heck of a trick he pulled off. Would that Obama could call the GOP’s bluffs in the same way as Papandreou did New Democracy’s.
Mack Lyons
@mclaren: You one of those Firebaggers or Digby-lovers, boy?
OzoneR
@Herbal Infusion Bagger:
Well first off, Papandreou might not survive as PM and second of all, no, because unlike the New Democracy Party in Greece, the Republicans would have let the US default and leave the Eurozone just to destroy Obama, rather than back whatever he wants.
El Cid
@PeakVT:
Maybe, if the EU is required to use Chinese as the official language of all legal, financial, and scientific transactions, and rename itself the Westerly Province of the Celestial Empire, and also if they agree to accept 10 million Chinese peasant immigrants per year, with free farmland for those who agree to yearly yield measures.
Glen Tomkins
Still room for hope
The NYT article you quote implies a different reason for Papandreou dropping the referendum than the reason Krugman cites, the idea that Papanadreou was bullied into it by the ECB.
I think the NYT’s explanation, that threatening a referendum was always just a way to maneuver the domestic opposition, New Democracy, off its opposition to the bailout scheme. PASOK was likely to end up losing a confidence vote over the bailout in the near future unless it got the main opposition to switch sides on that question. New Democracy’s opposition was always counter to its ideology (even more than Papandreou’s support for the bailout is contrary to socialism), so while it could maintain a cynical opposition in a parliamentary vote as a way to force elections at a time when PASOK is unpopular, it couldn’t really go out and campaign for a NO vote in the referendum. Had it done so, it would have been stuck with an anti-bailout position after it gained power. So New Democracy folded, and will not bring down the government by voting against the bailout in parliament.
Papandreou is more worried about the threat from New Democracy than about the ECB, because New Democracy can take his job away, and within days. What, really, can Draghi do to him?
What’s hopeful about this is that this impossible bailout is now the consensus of both main parties in Greece. They both either go down with that ship and new parties emerge, or they both find a common path to resisting the ECB (unlikely, they hate each other too much). Either new parties emerge that will do the people’s will, or one or both of the old parties evolve to the point that they do the people’s will. They were stuck before, neither could move because the other would pounce on the short-term vulnerability created by taking any real stand. Internally, neither could be taken over by a reasonable faction, because the takeover move, the internal fight involved, would weaken the party against its hated competitor. But that dynamic is at least weakened, if not destroyed, by this new bipartisanship over the bailout. Their system is now free to destroy both old parties
Not that this is a symmetrical situation. There are no reasonable factions in New Democracy, while there are such in PASOK. You could see hope for actual socialism in this latest developement.