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Foreign Affairs

You are here: Home / Archives for Foreign Affairs

War for Ukraine Day 339: The Strategist’s Enemy Is Time

by Adam L Silverman|  January 29, 20236:56 pm| 70 Comments

This post is in: Food & Recipes, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

One of the key issues and concerns for strategists is time. Specifically, how to develop a strategy to either buy time or to compress it. Keep this in mind when you read President Zelenskyy’s remarks from earlier today.

The video is below, the English transcript is after the jump:

show full post on front page

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, I held a regular meeting of the Staff. The main focus, of course, was on the situation at the front, primarily Donetsk and the southern directions. The situation is very tough. Bakhmut, Vuhledar and other areas in the Donetsk region are under constant Russian attacks. There are constant attempts to break through our defense.

The enemy does not count its people and, despite numerous casualties, maintains a high intensity of attacks.

In some of its wars, Russia has lost in total less people than it loses there, in particular near Bakhmut.

And this can only be countered by extraordinary resilience and a full understanding that by defending the Donetsk region, our warriors are defending the whole of Ukraine.

Because every prevented step of the enemy there means dozens of prevented steps of the occupiers in other directions.

I am grateful to all our units and to each warrior personally who, despite everything, is holding their ground and repelling enemy attacks in the Donetsk region.

Today, I would like to praise the warriors of the 72nd separate mechanized brigade and the 80th separate air assault brigade for their perseverance in performing combat missions in the Donetsk direction.

I would also like to commend our warriors in the southern areas. In particular, the 44th and 406th artillery brigades, as well as reconnaissance units of the 123rd and 124th territorial defense brigades. Thank you for your accuracy, warriors, thank you for your bravery!

The Commander-in-Chief, the commanders of operational directions, and the Minister of Defense reported at the Staff meeting today on the nature of the enemy’s actions, our response, and the supply of ammunition and equipment to combat units.

The head of intelligence reported on the possible shift in the situation in the near future.

We are doing everything to ensure that our pressure outweighs the occupiers’ assault capabilities.

And it is very important to maintain the dynamics of defense support from our partners.

The speed of supply has been and will be one of the key factors in this war.

Russia hopes to drag out the war, to exhaust our forces. So we have to make time our weapon. We must speed up the events, speed up the supply and opening of new necessary weaponry options for Ukraine.

This week, we have significant defense results in relations with the United States, Germany, Poland, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Italy, and other countries.

We have to make the next week no less powerful for our defense.

Today, I also spoke with President-elect of the Czech Republic Pavel. I heard a full understanding of the situation. I invited Mr. President to visit Ukraine. I am confident that together we will be able to significantly strengthen our common European response to the Russian terrorist threat.

Today I held a long meeting with our security sector – the Security Service of Ukraine and other special services. We are strengthening our state and will appropriately stop anyone who tries to weaken Ukraine from within.

And one more thing.

Today, the Russian army has been shelling Kherson atrociously all day. Residential buildings, various social and transport facilities, including a hospital, post office, and bus station, have been damaged.

Two women, nurses, were wounded in the hospital. As of now, there are reports of six wounded and three dead.

My condolences to all those who have lost loved ones to Russian terror…

In such circumstances, against the backdrop of such constant Russian terrorist attacks on our cities and villages, against the backdrop of constant Russian assaults that try to leave no single intact wall, it is even shocking that we have to convince international sports bureaucrats to refuse any support for the terrorist state.

The International Olympic Committee’s attempt to get Russian athletes back to compete and participate in the Olympics is an attempt to tell the world that terror can allegedly be something acceptable. As if it is possible to turn a blind eye to what Russia is doing to Kherson, to Kharkiv, to Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

Today, I sent a letter to Mr. President Macron about this very issue to follow up on our conversation with him on January 24.

As we prepare for the Paris Olympics, we must be sure that Russia will not be able to use it or any other international sporting event to promote aggression or its state chauvinism.

In the first half of the XX century, too many mistakes were made in Europe that led to horrific tragedies. There was also a major Olympic mistake. The Olympic movement and terrorist states should definitely not intersect.

I thank everyone who helps protect our people from Russian terror! I thank each and every one who bravely defends Ukraine in the ranks of our defense and security forces!

May the memory of all those who fought for the independence and integrity of Ukraine in the Battle of Kruty and in every other battle that helped our people to survive and gain their own state be bright!

Glory to Ukraine!

RUSI’s Jack Watling discusses this problem of time at The Spectator:

The decision by Kyiv’s international partners to send Nato-designed main battle tanks to Ukraine is a pivotal moment in the Russo-Ukrainian War. The tanks may be the focus of attention, but they were part of a much larger range of commitments – Ukraine’s partners have now committed to enabling Kyiv to reclaim its territory as quickly as possible. In spite of that, it will take months of hard fighting before Ukraine can make significant gains.

Russia is currently at the nadir of its capabilities, fielding poorly trained troops with older and more varied equipment, and with shortages of munitions. At the same time Russia has enough forces on the ground to mean that Ukraine can only make progress with a deliberate offensive. Russia can also mobilise and train more personnel. Russia’s defence industry is also increasing production, so that if Ukraine does not retain the initiative, it will become progressively harder to liberate territory.

It is this trajectory – combined with a need to convince Russia that protracted fighting is not in its interest – that led to several of Ukraine’s partners pledging large numbers of infantry fighting vehicles, tanks, artillery systems, combat support platforms, and expanding munitions production to meet Ukraine’s needs. There has also been a deliberate training pipeline built, with Ukrainians trained in the UK and then formed as units and exercised in Europe to learn how to field combined arms battalions.

The short term challenge Ukraine faced was that if it committed to offensive operations early in the year it might exhaust its reserves and lose a critical number of armoured vehicles, leaving it vulnerable to Russia later in the year. Its partners’ pledges now mean that Ukraine can confidently generate and field new combat unts through the year and Kyiv therefore has more freedom to use what it already has now.

In spite of the medium-term opportunity the pledged equipment offers, Nato-designed tanks will not be quick to bring into action. Nato-designed tanks are significantly different to the Soviet derived tanks currently operated by Ukraine. They have different crew workflow, maintenance requirements and are around 20-tonnes heavier. Tanks will also make little difference if fielded in small numbers. To field them at company strength, supported by infantry fighting vehicles and artillery, it is necessary to have a significant number of Ukrainians trained in how to fight the relevant systems, maintain and sustain them, and operate them in groups. This will all take time.

Thanks to the obstructionism and incompetence of the German government, Ukraine has ended up with the worst of the positive outcomes available. Rather than receiving a large number of a single type of tank they are receiving three different Nato-designed tanks, all in limited numbers and each with separate, complex maintenance requirements. This will delay getting these tanks to the front lines. And this is after Ukraine’s partners squandered three months deciding whether or not to send tanks at all. It is unlikely to be forgotten in Kyiv that Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s pointless prevarication has and will continue to cost Ukrainian lives.

Given the time it will take for newly pledged equipment to have an effect, it must be understood that the next few months of fighting are going to be hard. The Russians are massing airborne troops in Luhansk and armoured units to the South, while Wagner continues to assault Bakhmut. General Gerasimov, now directly running operations in Ukraine, is pushing for offensive operations to try and draw Ukraine’s reserves into defensive fighting and therefore remove their ability to prepare for offensive operations. The Russians are hoping that if they bleed out Ukraine’s better units now they will hold onto the territory they have seized. For the next couple of months at least Ukraine must avoid these threats with the equipment it already fields.

A wider issue for Ukraine’s partners is that after donating large volumes of front-line in-service equipment, they will need to rearm themselves. The British announcement to send up to 30 AS90 self propelled howitzers, for example, is going to significantly limit training time for the Royal Artillery unless a replacement gun is procured. The political decision to give Ukraine what it needs to win is important, but it must be followed up with a willingness to fund the consequences of the policy.

Much more at the link!

Julian Borger at The Guardian also deals with this dilemma by looking at the ongoing combat in Zaporizhzhia:

In the clear sky over the winter-yellowed marsh grasses on the outskirts of the town of Huliaipole, the bang and crump of artillery picked up pace like the thunderclaps of a distant but approaching storm.

The Russian armed forces declared on Sunday that they had launched a new offensive in Zaporizhzhia region, but the Ukrainian soldiers seemed unperturbed. The frontline here has not moved for 10 months, and the Russians are hunkered in their trenches, which run across the rolling hills of black-soil farmland. They are not going anywhere soon, the soldiers said.

“There is more activity in these past couple of weeks with shelling from artillery and even from tanks, but they don’t send infantry over the line because they’re scared,” said Vitaly, a senior sergeant in the 56th Mariupol motorised infantry brigade, which is holding the line around this town 60 miles (100km) east of Zaporizhzhia city.

However, Vitaly acknowledged that the frozen line was beginning to heat up. The number of incoming shells and rockets on this segment of the southern front has more than doubled this month to 4,000 a day. Two weeks earlier, the Russians had twice sent a handful of tanks forward to probe the Ukrainian lines only to pull back under fire.

Sooner or later, most likely in the next few months, one side would make its move and try to break the deadlock. The question is: who will strike first and where.

“The big battle is coming this spring, or even before,” Vitaly said. Whether it arrives here or somewhere else along the 750-mile frontline, the storm is expected to break this spring, ushering in what may prove to the most intense phase of the war so far.

In anticipation, both sides are using this time to strengthen their defences. Vitaly’s men use every day to harden their shelters and across the plain to the south, the invading force has erected two more lines of defence, comprising minefields, slit trenches, tank traps and phalanxes of small concrete pyramids known as dragon’s teeth.

One is to protect a railway line that brought supplies from Russia and the Russian-held town of Melitopol, a strategic hub. A nearby village, Polyanivka, was reportedly emptied of its population this month so that it could made part of the defensive wall. The second, most formidable line of fortifications guards the neck of land that leads to Crimea.

While these defensive preparations are obvious, it is less clear whether the Russians are stealthily accumulating the means to go on the attack. The Ukrainians have been watching carefully, through drone, satellite and human sources, as the Russians move mechanised units from Crimea towards the eastern front in Donetsk and Luhansk. They are looking for signs of any armour being quietly diverted north towards the line around Huliaipole, and they have noticed that the troops on the other side are not all raw recruits, but include a tough and experienced marine unit.

Russia is relentlessly building up its forces while Vladimir Putin is moving the economy towards a war footing to churn out new tanks and missiles. The chief of the Russian general staff, Valery Gerasimov, has been put in direct charge of Ukrainian operations, a move seen by many analysts as presaging a major offensive.

The first phase of Russia’s all-out invasion ended in debacle for Putin’s forces, which were driven back from the north, then from the Kharkiv region in September, and from northern Kherson oblast as well as Kherson oblast west of the Dnieper in November.

The second phase has been an attempt at a war of attrition, with thousands of Russian mercenaries and convicts sacrificed for small territorial gains around the towns of Bakhmut and Soledar, combined with an effort to freeze Ukrainians into submission with mass missile attacks on power plants, electricity transmission infrastructure and water facilities.

This second phase was almost as complete a defeat as the first. Russia has used much of its cruise missile arsenal, and while Ukraine’s power grid is battered, the lights are still on and the Ukrainian will to fight is undimmed.

The third phase is about to start, an all-out battle for decisive advantage using combined arms – mechanised infantry, artillery, air power and possibly waterborne assault – to overcome fixed positions. The world has not seen anything like it since the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, while Europe has witnessed nothing of its sort since the second world war.

The Bosnian war death toll of 100,000 has most probably already been surpassed. In Bosnia most of the dead were civilians, slaughtered by Serb forces. In Ukraine, most of the dead are drawn from the ranks of the aggressor, Russian soldiers. Ukraine claims the number of Russian war dead alone has reached 100,000. Norwegian intelligence suggests that Russian dead and wounded combined are 180,000, with total Ukrainian casualties at 100,000.

Mounting a major offensive in this coming phase of the war will be an enormous undertaking loaded with risk for either side in the conflict. Attacking fixed positions has always been more costly in human lives and machinery than defending them.

Military manuals say the attacking force has to be three times stronger to prevail. The 21st-century warfare being fought in Ukraine has steepened that gradient even further. Drone and satellite surveillance can spot an attacking force as it masses for an attempted breakthrough, while the devastating firepower of multiple launch rockets can all but wipe out the threat before an attack is even launched.

In Huliaipole, Ukrainian senior sergeant Vitaly pointed out he had had to buy his own gun, a US-made AR-15 assault rifle. The staff car he arrived in was provided by volunteers. If he needs tank support he has to ask another battalion.

“If we had just six tanks and the artillery to cover them, we would break their lines right here and really fuck them up,” he said.

The sergeant and an aide, Sergei, were speaking in the orchard of one of the region’s distinctive white and blue cottages on the day Ukraine’s foreign partners were meeting in Ramstein, a US airbase in Germany, discussing what equipment to send for the critical battles to come. A few days later, the decision was made to send Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams tanks into the fight.

A lot of equipment is already on the way to the Ukrainian army, including hundreds of infantry fighting vehicles from the US, France, Sweden and Germany, a squadron of Challenger 2 tanks and 30 self-propelled howitzers from Britain that will all go towards building mechanised units that can go on the attack.

For each weapons system supplied by Kyiv’s western backers there will be a lag of a couple of months at least for delivery and training Ukrainians how to use it. About 20,000 soldiers, about a 10th of the armed forces the country began the war with, have so far been trained in Nato countries, and the number is expected to grow dramatically in the first months of 2023.

Ukraine will try to strike wherever it judges the Russian lines to be the weakest and that may be in the east in Luhansk where enemy troops are more exhausted and demoralised.

Much, much more at the link!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut:

BAKHMUT /1445 UTC 29 JAN/ A RU attack was broken up short of the H-32 HWY. UKR staged a disruptive raid against RU rear areas near Andriivka. UKR Missile & Artillery targeted RU troop concentrations, EW stations and air defense complexes. UKR supply lines threatened. pic.twitter.com/ImBRdhQ0OR

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 29, 2023

The Financial Times has some interesting reporting on the state of Russia’s eocnomy:

Russian policymakers are debating whether to declassify more data as the Kremlin’s drive for secrecy leaves even seasoned observers struggling to make sense of the country’s economy.

Elvira Nabiullina, Russia’s central bank governor, is leading a push to roll back most of a decision to make reams of economic data classified, taken in the early weeks of last year’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to three people familiar with the matter.

The Kremlin, which has yet to approve the initiative, has justified withholding information on a wide range of economic statistics as a necessary defence against western sanctions. The classified data sets include important indicators such as foreign reserve holdings and export figures. Russian companies are allowed to keep “sensitive” results secret.

Nabiullina said last month that the country needed to disclose more data for markets to grow. “We need to go back to proper disclosure, with a few exceptions, so investors can invest in securities,” she said.

The central bank said on Saturday that “many authorities share our opinion that we should return to data openness,” adding that it was carrying out consultations with the government on the matter.

“The lack of publicly available statistics affects the quality of analysts’ and researchers’ work,” the bank said. “The Bank of Russia advocates restoring the publication of financial statements, except for the indicators that increase the companies’ and the economy’s vulnerability to sanctions risks.”

The debate highlights the extent to which economic data have become part of Russia’s information war accompanying Vladimir Putin’s offensive in Ukraine — and the west’s efforts to slow it down.

Addressing his economic cabinet on January 17, the Russian president proudly declared Russia had weathered the worst of the sanctions.

“The real dynamics turned out to be better than many expert forecasts,” said Putin. “Remember, some of our experts here in the country — I’m not even talking about western experts — thought [gross domestic product] would fall by 10, 15, even 20 per cent.”

Analysts agree that Russia’s economy has fared better than expected, but Putin’s rush to classify most economic data has left them with little to go on other than his triumphant statements — and has even tripped up the Russian president himself.

Classified budget spending has increased by more than 40 per cent to $95bn compared with prewar planning of $54bn. Russian foreign trade data have disappeared entirely.

The uncertainty around Russia’s data has muddied the economic picture so much that the country’s capacity to absorb the sanctions has surprised even policymakers with access to classified figures, according to three people familiar with the matter.

“The opacity of statistics creates problems even for those inside the system,” a senior Russian central bank official said. “The economic wing has access to the hidden macro data but corporate statistics are sometimes an issue.”

Even figures that are technically correct can mask broader problems. Last week, Putin said Russia had “preserved stability” on the labour market and hit record-low unemployment, below 4 per cent.

Putin failed to mention, however, that hundreds of thousands of workers have fled the country since the invasion began, while 300,000 men who were conscripted into the army now qualify as employed. This might improve the numbers, but it does little for the health of the labour market, according to Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Hidden unemployment, including downtime, unpaid leave and partial employment, hit a record of 4.66mn people in the third quarter of 2022, growing by 7.5 per cent year on year, analysts at consulting network FinExpertiza wrote.

Much, much more at the link!

Stockholm, Sweden: Specifically, the Quran burning in front of the Turkish Embassy, leading to Erdogan stating he will not support Sweden’s ascension into NATO, was a Russian influence operation. Let’s start with The Insider‘s coverage:

The Quran-burning protest that shook Stockholm on January 21, which caused Turkish president to revoke his support of Sweden’s accession to NATO, was aided by journalist and former Russia Today stringer Chang Frick.

In a conversation with The Insider, Frick confirmed that he had paid for the permit to hold the protest, but added he did not ask anyone to burn the religious text. “There was no such intention, it wasn’t my idea,” said the journalist.

Asked about his ties to RT and Russia, Frick said he has not worked with the channel since 2014 and has not supported Russia’s position since the annexation of Crimea. The journalist is currently engaged in helping Ukrainian refugees, raising donations and working with Ukrainians.

“If [RT director] Ms. Simonyan called me after this protest (I don’t know if she’s a Ms. or Mrs., I don’t know anything about her), I’d tell her that after the elections in Turkey, Sweden will be admitted into NATO. Turkey has a lot of problems – inflation, poverty. They’re using all this to distract attention,” Frick told The Insider.
He also said that the action was not directed against the Islamic world, but was related to the support of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK, designated a terrorist group by Turkey). According to the journalist, the liberal government of Sweden should support the Kurds, adhere to the right to freedom of speech and show that it is not afraid of Turkey.

On January 21, Rasmus Paludan, leader of the Danish far-right party Stram Kurs (“Hard Line”), gave a speech in front of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm condemning Islam and then burned the Quran. The action caused a storm of condemnation in the Islamic world and strained relations between Sweden and Turkey. As Swedish authorities sanctioned the rally, Turkish President Recep Erdoğan said Turkey would withdraw its support for Sweden’s bid to join NATO.

Swedish publication SVT earlier reported that Chang Frick had paid 320 kronor ($30) for the protest permit and guaranteed to cover all the costs associated with it.

Frick himself initially claimed that he had paid for Paludan’s protest action, but claimed that he had arranged for the money to be transferred via an employee of the Swedish nationalist website Exakt24. Exakt24, for its part, said it was Frick who “asked to put him in touch with someone who could burn the Quran.”

The Guardian has additional details:

The Qur’an-burning incident in Stockholm that threatens Sweden’s bid to join Nato was funded by a far-right journalist with links to Kremlin-backed media, it has emerged.

The holy book was set alight last Saturday near Turkey’s embassy in Stockholm by a far-right politician and anti-Islam provocateur, Rasmus Paludan, a dual Danish-Swedish national, with a reputation for carrying out similar acts.

Swedish media have reported that Paludan’s demonstration permit of 320 Swedish krona (£25, $31) was paid for by a former contributor to the Kremlin-backed channel RT, Chang Frick, who now does regular media spots for the far-right Sweden Democrats. Frick has confirmed he paid for the permit to hold the protest, but denied he had asked anyone to burn the Muslim holy book.

The exploit has sparked criticism across the Islamic world and deepened a stand off with Turkey over Sweden’s bid to join Nato, which requires the approval of all 30 member countries. “Those who allow such blasphemy in front of our embassy can no longer expect our support for their Nato membership,” Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, said in response to the book burning.

Despite calls by Sweden to restart trilateral talks with Turkey and fellow applicant, Finland, on their Nato bids, Turkey’s foreign ministry said on Thursday it would be “meaningless” to hold further discussions. On Friday, Turkey also summoned the Danish ambassador, and accused Denmark of endorsing a “hate crime”.

Paludan told local media that he carried out the action because “some Swedes would like me to burn a Qur’an in front of the Turkish embassy”. In an interview with The Insider website, Frick confirmed he paid for the permit to hold the protest, but claimed “it wasn’t my idea” to burn the Muslim holy book.

And we finish with Vice‘s reporting:

A Swedish journalist with links to Russian state television paid for a demonstration in Stockholm by far-right activists, who burnt a Quran in front of the Turkish embassy and set off a diplomatic controversy that has stymied Sweden’s attempt to join NATO.

The protest has further threatened Sweden’s NATO membership, and sparked fears that the Kremlin may have planned the event to stop the bloc’s expansion, which it claims is an existential threat to Russia.

Turkey has demanded Sweden deport Turkish opposition figures living in the country in exchange for its approval in joining NATO. Sweden says this is legally impossible. Finland and Sweden applied to join the alliance last year after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Frick has shared pictures of Putin memorabilia on Twitter and posed in t-shirts printed with the Russian president’s face. Moscow denies any involvement.

Den här skojar man inte bort.

Chang Frick. pic.twitter.com/qQWJTpkt0W

— Finis_Malorum (@HStahlgren) January 24, 2023

Paludan told Swedish journalists that Frick had not only paid for the event but had specifically suggested burning a copy of Islam’s holy book. Frick neither confirmed nor denied the claim.

Frick admitted his role to Swedish journalists but denied that the “free speech” event was designed to hurt Sweden’s relationship with Turkey and complicate its NATO application.

“If I, by paying 320 kroner in an administrative fee to the police, sabotaged the application, it was probably on very shaky ground from the beginning,” he told Swedish media. “It can be hard to determine if someone is working with Russia because they’re a troll or if Russia itself is directing the troll,” said a NATO security official on background. “It could be [Frick] is just some far right creep who likes burning Qurans. Or it could be a Russian intelligence operation. But either way, it’s helping Russia to see NATO members in conflict.”

Turkey has insisted that Sweden must extradite as many as 100 political opponents of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as part of its NATO application. NATO allies say the demand is impossible to meet but as any NATO member can veto the application of an aspiring country, the issue remains volatile and Turkey continues to block Sweden’s application.

“Erdogan loves this shit,” said the official. “He’s got an election [planned for May] and can energise his supporters, put pressure on Sweden over NATO, and play the role of protector of Islam or whatever.”

After the demonstration in Stockholm, Turkey cancelled a planned meeting about NATO between defence ministers and Erdogan said that the demonstration made it unlikely that Turkey would support Sweden’s application. The US appears ready to pressure Turkey into accepting Sweden in exchange for allowing the Turks to buy US made F-16 fighter jets, but all sides remain far apart.

More at the link!

What is not mentioned in the reporting is that Putin and the Kremlin either covertly or overtly almost all of the European extreme right/neo-fascist/neo-NAZI parties and movements. From the EU Political Report 10 months ago:

Similar anti-migration and anti-islam events, with some “support” from Russia, were observed in virtually all EU nations in the wake of the EU’s 2015 migration crisis. It is a known fact that the Kremlin finances right-wing radical and extremist movements in the EU.

It is high time that our politicians woke up to third party interference against the stability of our democracy, and cracked down on unwelcome and un-European offences against the values and principles that we stand for.

What we don’t know is whether Erdogan was in on it. Regardless, I expect the F-16s will be used to entice him back into line, though it may not happen until after the Turkish elections in May.

Moscow or wherever Medvedchuk is holed up:

I can’t fucking believe the Kremlin propaganda is AGAIN promoting Viktor Medvedchuk as a puppet leader for occupied Ukraine. AGAIN. They haven’t learned anything, have they?

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 29, 2023

Britain:

Ukrainian tank crews have arrived in the UK to begin training for their continued fight against Russia.

The UK will provide Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine alongside global partner nations – demonstrating the strength of support for Ukraine, internationally.#StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/OLKtllePzN

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) January 29, 2023

The Czech Republic:

Czechia: Former army chief General Petr Pavel, 61, won the presidential election with 58.3% of the vote on a pledge to keep the country firmly anchored in the West.
Wonderful! No more stupid populism!https://t.co/b00DTwkj6k

— Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) January 28, 2023

Petr Pavel, the newly elected president of Czechia, is a retired general and former NATO commander. He just won in a landslide against a populist ex-prime minister. Pavel is staunchly pro-Ukraine. https://t.co/3IcVFMv6aP

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) January 28, 2023

Upřímně blahopřeji @general_pavel k přesvědčivému vítězství ve volbách prezidenta České republiky. Oceňuji Vaši podporu Ukrajině a našemu boji proti ruské agresi. Těším se na naši úzkou osobní spolupráci ve prospěch národů Ukrajiny a České republiky a v zájmu sjednocené Evropy.

— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) January 28, 2023

I sincerely congratulate @general_pavel
on the convincing victory in the presidential elections of the Czech Republic. I appreciate your support for Ukraine and our fight against Russian aggression. I look forward to our close personal cooperation for the benefit of the peoples of Ukraine and the Czech Republic and in the interests of a united Europe.

President Pavel is also, apparently, Dr. Fate:

We just want a Doctor Fate movie or show! #BlackAdam pic.twitter.com/H3d7SWvvz1

— Shadow Knight (@ShadowKnightDK) October 22, 2022

If anyone is interested and has a few bucks to spare this month, this is a worthy cause. Not least of which because The Kyiv Independent and its reporters are where I begin my daily scans to put these updates together. Since you’re not being charged for these updates and I’m not getting paid for doing them, you might consider supporting them.

Who wants to be a hero?
Right now @KyivIndependent is looking for just 79 new supporters and we hit 10,000 patrons on Patreon!
Please subscribe and tell your friends.
That’s a milestone for independent media of popular support in 🇺🇦Ukraine https://t.co/ddIRInLAgC

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 29, 2023

That’s enough for today.

Your daily Patron!

Hello. Your help is needed. What payment services do you most often use for donations? And except for PayPal, because they blocked both my accounts, I won back one 😊 What about cryptocurrencies? Payoneer, etc? Help the dog figure it all out 😅 pic.twitter.com/HMtDiIZ16W

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War for Ukraine Day 339: The Strategist’s Enemy Is TimePost + Comments (70)

War for Ukraine Day 338: Russia Unloads on Ukraine Again

by Adam L Silverman|  January 28, 20238:02 pm| 96 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

 

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

❗️SENSITIVE CONTENT

Three killed and three wounded – these are the consequences of a russian missile hitting the residential quarter of Kostiantynivka.

russian army continues to terrorize the civilians of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/dK53Uxu55F

— Donbas Frontliner (@frontliner_ua) January 28, 2023

Yesterday Zelensky described the fighting at the frontline in eastern Ukraine as "extremely acute." Battles are raging in Bakhmut and Vuhledar. But Russia's firing missiles and artillery across the Donetsk region. One such attack on a residential area, seen below, killed 3 people https://t.co/Rs5y5d2rfJ

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) January 28, 2023

💔 Nina Kovalenko is crying over the body of her killed son Mykhailo. pic.twitter.com/GHcPOutTsr

— Donbas Frontliner (@frontliner_ua) January 28, 2023

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

show full post on front page

Ukrainians! Ukrainians! And all our partners!

Today, at 9:15 a.m., the Russian army fired a missile at our town of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk region. The enemy used S-300 missiles. They hit the residential sector. As of now, 17 names are on the list of victims. 14 are wounded. Three people were killed. My condolences to the families and friends…

These Russian missiles hit Konstantinovka, in particular, four residential buildings. Unfortunately, such shelling is a daily occurrence in our territories, which the Russian army reaches with such missiles. Donbas, Kharkiv region, the south of the country…

It would be possible to stop this Russian terror if we could provide our military with adequate missile forces. So that the terrorists would not have a sense of impunity.

Ukraine needs long-range missiles, in particular, to remove the possibility for the occupier to set up its missile launchers far from the front line and destroy Ukrainian cities with them.

I am grateful to everyone in the world: politicians, public figures, journalists and ordinary people who insist with us that there can be no taboos in the supply of weapons to protect against Russian terror.

We will do everything we can to ensure that our partners open up this vital supply of ATACMS and other similar weapons.

Because it is necessary to protect lives. To protect cities like Kostiantynivka or Kharkiv, for example.

Today, I continued our marathon of honesty, which should bring international sports organizations back to true Olympic principles.

I sent a letter to the presidents of the leading international sports federations. The call is simple and fair: to make a decision on the decision of the International Olympic Committee, which, unfortunately, wants to open sport to the propaganda influence of a terrorist state.

If Russian athletes appear at international competitions, it will only be a matter of time before they start justifying Russia’s aggression and using terror symbols. And it is also only a matter of time before the Kremlin starts using the existing unprincipled “flexibility” of the International Olympic Committee to say that the world agrees to make concessions to the aggressor.

We cannot ignore the fact that every day Russia continues its terror.

Today, I signed a decree to implement the NSDC decision on sanctions against legal entities and individuals used by the aggressor state to transport military equipment and soldiers by rail. We are talking about 185 companies and individuals. Their assets in Ukraine will be blocked, and their property will be used for our defense. And we will work to ensure that similar blocking is applied by other countries.

I am grateful to everyone who helps us to strengthen sanctions against Russia! And, by the way, I thank all the investigators who expose the ways that the terrorist state uses to circumvent sanctions!

I am grateful to each and every one of you who are eliminating the consequences of Russian shelling and rescuing the wounded! And, of course, I thank each and every one of our soldiers at the front who are defending our positions and destroying the occupiers!

Today I would like to especially mention the units that are most effectively defending Donetsk region.

This is the 21st separate battalion of the 56th separate motorized infantry brigade – thank you for your resilience and repulsion of Russian attacks!

The soldiers of the 26th and 55th separate artillery brigades – thank you for your accuracy!

92nd separate mechanized brigade – thank you guys!

Thank you to everyone who gives Ukraine the necessary results every day and every night! And we will respond to every Russian attack. We will.

Glory to Ukraine!

We share 🇮🇱 pain after the terrorist attacks in Jerusalem. Among the victims is a 🇺🇦 woman. Sincere condolences to the victims' families. The crimes were cynically committed on the Intl Holocaust Remembrance Day. Terror must have no place in today's world. Neither in 🇮🇱 nor in 🇺🇦

— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) January 28, 2023

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Bakhmut, Kremenna, Soledar, and Vulhedar:

BAKHMUT /1310 UTC 28 JAN/ UKR troops are engaged in the urban area of Krasna Hora as RU tactical units attempt to take the T-05-13 / M-03 HWY junction. South of the city, the UKR Gen’l Staff reports two RU attacks were repelled S of Ivanivske. pic.twitter.com/dVGpF2FM1o

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 28, 2023

KREMINNA AXIS /1325 UTV 28 JAN/ RU launched attacks across the P-66 HWY, engaging UKR troops at Novosadove & Chervonopopivka. UKR is a reported to have rebuffed these sallies. UKR air defense downed a RU ‘SuperCam’ recon UAV, as well as an Mi-8 helicopter. pic.twitter.com/O12k1EH2sy

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 28, 2023

SOLEDAR AXIS /2220 UTC 28 JAN/ RU forces have crossed the rail line at Blahodatne and have effectively cut the T-05-13 HWY north of Bakhmut. Wagner units continue to press toward the critical M-03 / T-05-13 junction. Heavy fighting at Krasna Hora. pic.twitter.com/Bhol5hdNz7

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 28, 2023

VUHLEDAR: In recent days, RU has attempted a combined armed offensive against the town of Vuhledar in the south. @Tendar posts this video of the disintegration of a RU task element during a failed attack. Morale and unit cohesion continues to deteriorate in Russian units. https://t.co/RxgcJgKFYs

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 28, 2023

Mariupol:

"My grandpa and almost all of my friends died" – Angelina Balakireva, Mariupol pic.twitter.com/ER790DI0tw

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) January 28, 2023

This is an interesting analysis, by tweet thread, from the Dean of the College of International and Security Studies at the Marshall Center:

🧵 A word of advice for all those "realists" among Western elites who oppose support for #Ukraine: Finally, once and for all bury the Yalta mindset. Understand the Russia is no more entitled to a sphere of influence than a gangster is entitled to keep the spoils of a robbery. 1/

— Andrew A. Michta (@andrewmichta) January 27, 2023

Here’s the rest from the Thread Reader App:

  • Time to set aside our double standard whereby when it comes to #Russia, we don’t enforce the rules, but instead hope for a good tsar (Gorbachev, Yeltsin) with whom we can (to quote Lady Thatcher) “do business.” We should also set aside the nonsense about Russian high culture. 2/
  • Russian culture must be seen in its totality — it’s not just Dostoyevsky, Tolstoy or ballet; it’s first and foremost the Gulag, prisons, firing squads, rape and torture. It’s the culture of violence and theft as a mode of governance. It’s an empire awash in blood. 3/
  • Watch how the Russians behave in #Ukraine, where premeditated destruction and murder is the rule, and ask yourself if that this someone you would like to invite to dinner, or even live next door to. Bottom line: Europe will know no peace until Russia is expelled from Europe. 4/
  • Listen to Finns, Poles, or Balts. They have lived next door to Russia for centuries and paid an awful price while the West often looked the other way. It’s time “realists” among Western policy elites grow up and end the “what-about-ism” nonsense when it comes to Russia. 5/
  • Democracies are not perfect, but we certainly are better than the Russian and Chinese alternatives. And the Ukrainians are fighting on our behalf, they want to be a part of us. They deserve our respect and all the material and political support we can muster. #ArmUkraineNow

Politico has new details on the push to send F-16s to Ukraine:

A contingent of military officials is quietly pushing the Pentagon to approve sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to help the country defend itself from Russian missile and drone attacks, according to three people with knowledge of the discussions.

Ukraine has kept American-made F-16s on its weapons wish list since the Russian invasion last year. But Washington and Kyiv have viewed artillery, armor and ground-based air defense systems as more urgent needs as Ukraine seeks to protect civilian infrastructure and claw back ground occupied by Russian forces.

As Ukraine prepares to launch a new offensive to retake territory in the spring, the campaign inside the Defense Department for fighter jets is gaining momentum, according to a DoD official and two other people involved in the discussions. Those people, along with others interviewed for this story, asked not to be named in order to discuss internal matters.

Spurred in part by the rapid approval of tanks and Patriot air defense systems — which not long ago were off-limits for export to Ukraine — there is renewed optimism in Kyiv that U.S. jets could be next up.

“I don’t think we are opposed,” said a senior DoD official about the F-16s, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive debate. The person stressed that there has been no final decision.

However, Ukraine has yet to declare that fighter jets are its top priority, the official stressed, noting that the Pentagon is focused on sending Kyiv the capabilities it needs for the immediate fight.

But fighter jets may be moving to the top spot soon. Kyiv has renewed its request for modern fighters in recent days, with a top adviser to the country’s defense minister telling media outlets that officials will push for jets from the U.S. and European countries.

A top Ukrainian official said Saturday that Ukraine and its Western allies are engaged in “fast-track” talks on possibly sending both long-range missiles and military aircraft.

One adviser to the Ukrainian government said the subject has been raised with Washington, but there has been “nothing too serious” on the table yet. Another person familiar with the conversations between Washington and Kyiv said it could take “weeks” for the U.S. to make a decision on shipments of its own jets and approve the re-export of the F-16s from other countries.

“If we get them, the advantages on the battlefield will be just immense. … It’s not just F-16s: fourth generation aircraft, this is what we want,” Yuriy Sak, who advises Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov, told Reuters.

A White House spokesperson declined to comment for this story, but pointed to remarks by deputy national security adviser Jon Finer. He said the U.S. would be discussing fighter jets “very carefully” with Kyiv and its allies.

“We have not ruled in or out any specific systems,” Finer said on MSNBC Thursday.

“We have nothing to announce regarding F-16s,” said a DOD spokesperson. “As always, we’ll continue to consult closely with the Ukrainians and our international Allies and partners on Ukraine’s security assistance needs to enable them to defend their country.”

Ukraine wants modern fighters — U.S. Air Force F-16s or F-15s, or their European equivalents the German Tornado or Swedish Gripen — to replace its fleet of Soviet-era jets. Dozens of the more modern planes will become available over the next year as countries such as Finland, Germany and the Netherlands upgrade to U.S. F-35 fighters.

Despite the age of Ukraine’s jets, Kyiv’s integrated air defenses have kept Russia from dominating its skies since the Feb. 24 invasion.

But now, officials are concerned that Ukraine is running out of missiles to protect its skies. Once its arsenal is depleted, Russia’s advanced fighter jets will be able to move in and Kyiv “will not be able to compete,” said the DoD official involved in the discussions.

Modern fighter jets could be one solution to this problem, argues a group of military officials in the Pentagon and elsewhere. F-16s carry air-to-air missiles that can shoot down incoming missiles and drones. And unlike the Patriots and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems the West is currently sending, fighter jets can move around an area quickly to protect different targets.

“If they get [F-16] Vipers and they have an active air-to-air missile with the radar the F-16 currently has with some electronic protection, now it’s an even game,” the DoD official said.

Even if the U.S. decided not to send the Air Force’s F-16s, other Western nations have American-made fighters they could supply. For example, Dutch Foreign Affairs Minister Wopke Hoekstra told the Dutch parliament last week that his Cabinet would look at supplying F-16s, if Kyiv requests them. But the U.S. must approve the transfer.

Senior Pentagon officials acknowledge that Ukraine needs new aircraft for the long term. But for now, some argue that Ukraine has a greater need for more traditional air defenses, such as the Patriots and NASAMs that the U.S. and other countries are supplying, because jets may take months to arrive.

Sending Ukraine F-16s “does not solve the cruise missile or drone problem right now,” the senior DoD official said.

Much, much more at the link!

Christopher Miller at The Financial Times has new details on the recent anti-corruption efforts in Ukraine:

When Ukrainian investigative reporter and anti-corruption activist Yuriy Nikolov was tipped off about an overpriced catering contract for the defence ministry, he knew the story could land him in trouble.

By publishing it, not only would Nikolov break a taboo on criticising the Ukrainian government during wartime. He knew it could also cast a shadow over his embattled country and tarnish the reputation of one of the most prominent figures of the war: defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov.

Nikolov reached out to the ministry, but was brushed off, he told the Financial Times. On Monday he published his findings, which showed the ministry had signed a $350mn deal with a catering company to pay wildly inflated prices for food going to Ukrainian troops.

The story of overpriced eggs and gherkins set off alarm bells for Ukrainians, who, according to the country’s central bank, have donated about $500mn of their own money to the army. Many recognised it as a classic scheme used by powerful officials to line their pockets. That it was money meant to help feed their defenders made it all the more scandalous.

The army food scandal broke as Ukraine was pleading with its western partners to supply it with tanks and other critical arms supplies for the fight against Russia’s invasion forces. The country’s bid to become an EU member state will depend on credible rule of law and anti-corruption reforms.

It was the first domino in a cascade of stories that would lead to resignations and sackings of senior government officials, as well as the biggest government shake-up since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

In a matter of days, one of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s deputy chiefs of staff, five governors of frontline provinces, four deputy ministers and two members of the president’s ruling Servant of the People party in parliament would resign or be fired because of scandalous or allegedly corrupt behaviour.

“Corruption is a negative in any case but in our circumstances, at our level of development in our democracy and fighting against Russia, the cost is very high, it’s people dying every day,” said lawmaker Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, first deputy head of the parliamentary committee on anti-corruption policy.

Ukrainians are focused on defeating Russia, Nikolov said, “but it turned out that, in fact, [Ukrainians] really don’t like corruption and want justice, too”.

“Soldiers in the trenches,” he added, were among the many readers who had written to thank him for exposing the deal and stopping it before payment was made.

Reznikov denied any wrongdoing in a fiery Facebook post and passed the blame to his deputy, Vyacheslav Shapovalov, who oversaw procurements and who quit when the scandal broke.

Ukraine’s top military commander, General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, called for a thorough investigation of the corruption allegations, adding that the military had “zero tolerance for corruption”.

Yurchyshyn, who sits on a parliamentary committee dealing with anti-graft policies, told the FT that the shake-up proved that ongoing anti-corruption reforms were working. “We created NABU, an anti-corruption court, a special anti-corruption prosecutor and ProZorro” — a digital procurement system to increase transparency and competition, Yurchyshyn said.

“It is fair, it is needed for our defence, and it helps our rapprochement with European institutions,” Zelenskyy said of his government shake-up on Tuesday. “We need a strong state, and Ukraine will be just that.”

Ana Pisonero, a spokesperson for the European Commission, said leaders in Brussels, who say Ukraine’s potential future accession into the 27-member bloc is conditional on it cleaning up corruption, were pleased with Zelenskyy’s response and “welcome the fact that the Ukrainian authorities are taking these issues seriously”. But more progress on reforms was still needed, she added.

Much, much more at the link!

We interrupt this update to let you know that a whole lot of Iran has gone kaboom!

Also a new attack in Hamedan was reported minutes ago. This seems like a coordinated attack.

Israel?

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) January 28, 2023

Footage of the attack in Iskhafan at a military complex. This is reportedly an ammunition production center. pic.twitter.com/l6HOFeXDTR

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) January 28, 2023

In the city of Khoy, another attack. pic.twitter.com/cZOur7NDBo

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) January 28, 2023

Local authorities confirm the explosions at the munitions factory in Isfahan, — IRIB News

Iranian media also reported drone attacks on military facilities in the Iranian cities of Tabriz, Hamadan and Karaj.

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) January 28, 2023

I don’t know why that thread isn’t actually set up to thread.

Now we wait and see if anyone takes credit. Israel is, of course, the obvious choice. But Iran is also now supplying Russia’s drones, so…

That’s enough for tonight.

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War for Ukraine Day 338: Russia Unloads on Ukraine AgainPost + Comments (96)

Fibbie McGonigal : New Information Never *Mitigates* the Original Crime

by Anne Laurie|  January 28, 20236:00 pm| 110 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Republican Venality, Russia, Trump Crime Cartel, Lock Him Up...Lock Them All Up

(Fibber McGee’s closet)

Exclusive: Inside the extramarital affair and cash-fueled double life of Charles McGonigal, the FBI spy-hunter indicted for allegedly taking Russian money https://t.co/6Avjfv1INL

— Insider Politics (@insiderpolitics) January 27, 2023


I swear, a big chunk of the appeal to these double agents is the thrill of imagining themselves as James Bond…

One morning in October 2017, Allison Guerriero noticed something unusual on the floor of her boyfriend’s Park Slope, Brooklyn, apartment: a bag full of cash. There it was, lying next to his shoes, near the futon, the kind of bag that liquor stores give out. Inside were bundles of bills, big denominations bound up with rubber bands. It didn’t seem like something he should be carrying around. After all, her boyfriend, Charles F. McGonigal, held one of the most senior and sensitive positions in the FBI.

“Where the fuck is this from?” she asked.

“Oh, you remember that baseball game?” McGonigal replied, according to Guerriero’s recollection. “I made a bet and won.”

McGonigal had two high-school-age children and a wife — or “ex-wife” as he sometimes referred to her — back at home in Chevy Chase, Maryland. He would return there once or twice a month. But McGonigal had led Guerriero to believe that he was either divorced or soon would be. She didn’t question his story, nor did she question the story about the bag full of cash…

Federal prosecutors charged McGonigal with money laundering and making false statements in his mandatory employee disclosures to the FBI. He was also charged with taking money from a representative of Oleg Deripaska, a Russian oligarch who McGonigal had once himself investigated, in violation of US economic sanctions against Russia; the indictment alleges that Deripaska paid him to investigate a rival oligarch. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges.

McGonigal was not an ordinary FBI agent. He led the WikiLeaks investigation into Chelsea Manning as well as a search for a Chinese mole inside the CIA. While working at FBI headquarters in Washington, he played a role in opening the investigation into the Trump campaign’s Russia contacts that was later dubbed Operation Crossfire Hurricane.

But it was McGonigal’s final FBI job, special agent in charge of the counterintelligence division at the FBI’s New York field office, that was his most important assignment at the bureau. It was his job to find enemy spies and recruit his own.

“New York City is a global center for espionage and counterespionage,” says one senior law-enforcement insider who was closely familiar with the specifics of McGonigal’s role. “You have visits from foreign business elites and politicians. You have the United Nations. You have ethnic populations. Who runs the pitches to recruit spies from all those other countries? The FBI. So the access you get in that job is extraordinary. It’s almost bottomless. So if you’re running FBI counterintelligence in New York, you can get your hands on almost anything you want, and you don’t always have to make excuses for why you’re asking for it.”

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The impact of the McGonigal indictments is still rippling out through the law-enforcement world. The charges accuse an official at the heart of the Trump-Russia investigation of secretly selling his own access, accepting bundles of cash in surreptitious meetings with someone who had ties to Albanian intelligence. McGonigal, a top-tier member of the city’s law-enforcement community, a man who had fully integrated himself into a powerful circle of trust where favors get swapped and sensitive intelligence gets circulated, is accused of himself being on the take. If the indictments are correct, McGonigal was leading a dangerous double life, right under the noses of some of the sharpest cops in America.

But what might be most striking about the case against McGonigal is how cheaply he is alleged to have rented out his law-enforcement powers. One indictment suggests that for $225,000, McGonigal’s associates got him to lobby the Albanian prime minister about the awarding of oil-field drilling licenses and then open an FBI investigation connected to a US citizen who had lobbied for one of the prime minister’s political opponents. Arranging a meeting for an executive from a Bosnian pharmaceutical company with a US official at the United Nations was said to be a pricier item — $500,000, one indictment claims. It is unclear whether that money ever materialized…

On Monday, the New York field office of the FBI found itself wearing a sentence that included the phrases, "FBI official," "indicted by," and "Russian oligarch," which is a chain with several balls attached to it. https://t.co/s54i6CHv3f

— Charles P. Pierce (@CharlesPPierce) January 24, 2023


Gonna be interesting to find out just how (not, comparatively, I’m guessing) much more TFG held out for:

The New York field office of the FBI has been a problem since it bullyragged James Comey during the 2016 presidential campaign. It has hungered for a Clinton head to hang on its lobby wall for almost two decades…

Deripaska is the Zelig of the Volga Bagmen. Whenever a shady business deal comes to light involving Russian money and American politics, Deripaska seems to be flitting around somewhere in the background. Now we find that he allegedly tied himself into the counterintelligence division in the New York office, which opens a sprawling vista of interesting speculation…

I’ve always thought that the question of who invested in the former president* and his operation, and how much, was deserving of some closer scrutiny.

But in the United States, members of the Russian elite have invested in Trump buildings. A Reuters review has found that at least 63 individuals with Russian passports or addresses have bought at least $98.4 million worth of property in seven Trump-branded luxury towers in southern Florida, according to public documents, interviews and corporate records.

The buyers include politically connected businessmen, such as a former executive in a Moscow-based state-run construction firm that works on military and intelligence facilities, the founder of a St. Petersburg investment bank and the co-founder of a conglomerate with interests in banking, property and electronics. People from the second and third tiers of Russian power have invested in the Trump buildings as well. One recently posted a photo of himself with the leader of a Russian motorcycle gang that was sanctioned by the United States for its alleged role in Moscow’s seizure of Crimea.

They sound nice.

One might assume McGonigal is acquainted with the counterintelligence investigations that were underway in New York before he left the bureau in 2018. Whether or not any of those might prove relevant to the present action, the pleadings and the discovery here should make for fascinating reading.

Charles McGonigal, a former high-ranking FBI official who investigated Russian oligarchs, has been indicted on charges that he secretly worked for one — Oleg Deripaska.

In 2019, the NewsHour asked Deripaska about the sanctions against him. https://t.co/U3HmKDxeBk

— PBS NewsHour (@NewsHour) January 25, 2023

UPDATE: Former senior FBI official Charles McGonigal, now indicted for money laundering and conspiracy to help Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, is now being represented by — wait for it — Rudy Giuliani's old law firm.

— Tristan Snell (@TristanSnell) January 24, 2023

Danielle Wallace, Fox News:

… Though not referenced in or related to the indictment, McGonigal, while serving as chief of the cybercrimes section at FBI headquarters in Washington, D.C., was one of the first bureau officials to learn of allegations that George Papadopoulos, a campaign adviser for former President Donald Trump, boasted that he knew Russians had dirt on Hillary Clinton, launching the investigation into alleged Russian election interference known as Operation Crossfire Hurricane, Business Insider previously reported. Fox News is told that as a senior counterintelligence official at the time, he likely was briefed on Crossfire Hurricane at the time the investigation was launched.

McGonigal, 54, of New York City, and Shestakov, 69, of Morris, Connecticut, “both previously worked with Deripaska to attempt to have his sanctions removed, and, as public servants, they should have known better,” U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Damian Williams said in a statement. “This Office will continue to prosecute those who violate U.S. sanctions enacted in response to Russian belligerence in Ukraine in order to line their own pockets.”

Both men are charged with one count of conspiring to violate and evade U.S. sanctions, in violation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (“IEEPA”), one count of violating the IEEPA, one count of conspiring to commit money laundering, and one count of money laundering, each of which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison. Shestakov is also charged with one count of making false statements, which carries a maximum sentence of five years in prison, prosecutors said…

As part of their negotiations with Deripaska’s agent, McGonigal, Shestakov and the agent attempted to conceal Deripaska’s involvement by, among other means, not directly naming Deripaska in electronic communications, using shell companies as counterparties in the contract that outlined the services to be performed, using a forged signature on that contract, and using the same shell companies to send and receive payments from Deripaska, according to the indictment.

In 2019, McGonigal and Shestakov also allegedly worked on behalf of Deripaska in an unsuccessful effort to have the sanctions against Deripaska lifted. In November 2021, when FBI agents questioned Shestakov about the nature of his and McGonigal’s relationship with Deripaska’s agent, the interpreter made false statements in a recorded interview, federal prosecutors said…

“When the C.I.A. noticed in late 2010 that its spies were disappearing…as fears of a mole grew, the government set up a secret task force….A veteran F.B.I. counterintelligence agent, Charles McGonigal, was assigned to run it,” reported @nytimes in 2018.

— Michael Beschloss (@BeschlossDC) January 23, 2023

Did the head honchos set up a Fire Sale — Everything Must Go! table in the lobby?

Director of FBI when McGonigal was named to head counterintelligence task force in 2010 was Robert Mueller.

“Democratic lawmakers raised concerns about a potential conflict of interest on the part of Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in his decision to lift sanctions on companies controlled by the Russian oligarch Oleg V. Deripaska,” reported @nytimes in 2019.

Three weeks before his fateful announcement about Hillary Clinton, October 2016, Comey and FBI made this announcement about Charles McGonigal: pic.twitter.com/Edv3gFnfVl

— Michael Beschloss (@BeschlossDC) January 24, 2023

Then, on October 31, 2016, @nytimes reported this:
“Investigating Donald Trump, F.B.I. Sees No Clear Link to Russia.”
This was 8 days before the Trump-Clinton election.
It was 27 days after Comey named McGonigal to head Counterintelligence for FBI’s New York Field Office.

Now that McGonigal has been arrested, will he testify and tell the American people exactly what was going on during the days before the 2016 election?

And does Comey have anything to say to Americans about McGonigal’s arrest?

Then FBI Director Mueller had the fox guarding the henhouse

Good Lord https://t.co/dQRksq9Ori

— Lindy Li (@lindyli) January 24, 2023

Oh, look — it’s Billy Barr’s name showing up again!

One of the most interesting details about the Charles McGonigal case revealed today: He's represented by Billy Barr's former aide, Seth DuCharme, who had his hands in a whole shit-ton of corrupt Billy Barr stuff. pic.twitter.com/MY3g3AKHa4

— emptywheel (@emptywheel) January 23, 2023

Fibbie McGonigal : New Information Never *Mitigates* the Original CrimePost + Comments (110)

War for Ukraine Day 337: International Holocaust Remembrance Day Amidst Another Genocidal War in Europe

by Adam L Silverman|  January 27, 20238:52 pm| 69 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Today is International Holocaust Remembrance Day and the anniversary of the Liberation of Auschwitz:

For the world #Auschwitz is a symbol of the #Holocaust & crimes of WW2, a painful reminder of what ideologies of hatred may lead humanity to.
In 2005 @UN declared 27 January – the date of the liberation of #Auschwitz – as the International #HolocaustRemembranceDay pic.twitter.com/hZUy4auQ6f

— Auschwitz Memorial (@AuschwitzMuseum) January 27, 2023

And it occurs just a little over three weeks before we hit the one year mark in the newest genocidal war in Europe.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

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Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

Today we are starting a marathon of honesty, which will be aimed at clearing the leadership of international Olympic structures of hypocrisy and any attempts to bring representatives of the terrorist state into world sports.

One cannot but be disappointed by the statements of the current President of the International Olympic Committee, Thomas Bach. I spoke with him several times. And I never heard how he is going to protect sports from war propaganda if he returns Russian athletes to international competitions.

There is no such thing as neutrality when a war like this is going on. And we know how often tyrannies try to use sports for their ideological interests. It is obvious that any neutral flag of Russian athletes is stained with blood.

I do not want to get into what exactly motivated Mr. Bach to promote such an initiative. But we will do everything so that the world will protect sports from political and any other influence of the terrorist state, which is simply inevitable if Russian athletes participate in competitions. And especially – at the Paris Olympics.

Ukrainian athletes are forced to defend the lives of their loved ones and the freedom of our people from Russian aggression. Russian strikes took the lives of hundreds of Ukrainian men and women who could have brought their talents to world sports.

Russia must stop aggression and terror, and only after that it will be possible to talk about Russian participation in the context of the Olympic movement. Olympic principles and war are fundamentally opposed to each other.

The situation at the front, and in particular in Donetsk region – near Bakhmut and Vuhledar, remains extremely acute. The occupiers are not just storming our positions – they are deliberately and methodically destroying these towns and villages around them. Artillery, aviation, missiles. The Russian army has no shortage of means of destruction. And it can be stopped only by force.

Our soldiers, who are defending the areas in Donetsk region, are real heroes. I thank each of you guys for your bravery!

And, by the way, I invite Mr. Bach to Bakhmut. So that he could see with his own eyes that neutrality does not exist.

I spoke today with students, teachers and graduates of the College of Europe in Natolin and Bruges. This is a special educational institution that prepares specialists to work in and with European structures. It is precisely such specialists that we need, in particular, for the full integration of our state with the European Union.

Ukrainians are already studying under the programs of the College of Europe. And we have already started creating such a college in Ukraine. And this underlines our desire to fully and as soon as possible integrate with the EU. And also, I am sure, it will enable Ukrainians to help protect freedom and European values both in our region and throughout Europe.

I heard from the rector of the college in Natolin that free Europe now has a Ukrainian face. And such words mean a lot.

We will always do everything to increase our potential in relations with the EU, in particular, personnel potential. That is why we need our own Ukrainian College of Europe. And it will be.

Today we have important news from Belgium – the country where the governing structures of the European Union are located. There is a decision by the Belgian government on a package of support for our defense. It is that will strengthen our air defense. It is that will increase the mobility of our troops on the battlefield. I thank you for this support. I thank all the countries, all the leaders, who this week proved with their decisions that Russian aggression will be defeated.

And one more.

A ceremony honoring the memory of all victims of the Holocaust was held this morning in Kyiv near the Menorah memorial sign in Babyn Yar. Today is International Holocaust Remembrance Day. And even at such a time, during the full-scale war, Ukraine, together with the entire civilized world, feels and shares the pain that still remains in the world from the crimes of Nazism.

We remember. And so we resist the evil’s attempts to return.

I thank everyone who protects humanity together with Ukraine!

I thank all our soldiers!

Glory to Ukraine!

Defeating Russia? Plausible. Defeating the International Olympic Committee? I’m not sure there’s enough weapons platforms and ammo for that.

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Svatove:

SVATOVE AXIS /1410 UTC 29 JAN/ Intel reveals a significant & growing concentration of RU forces around Kreminna; an assembly of units and capabilities far in excess of the the defensive requirements of this sector of the front. A pending RU offensive cannot be ruled out. pic.twitter.com/4N8rdMI1A5

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 27, 2023

Vuhledar:

2/4 The enemy is demoralized by losses, which is why they are bringing additional reinforcements, but we will see in the nearest days if they will be able to throw them for another large assault.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) January 27, 2023

4/4 The situation is still difficult but more stable: the enemy continues to replenish their losses with additional manpower. They have lost advantages that they were able to get during the first two days

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) January 27, 2023

I think this is an interesting and thought provoking thread from NPR’s Melissa Chan:

One of my frustrations the past year is how many people have been shocked that enough Russians buy Putin's propaganda and believe in the war. We want so badly to imagine every citizen in an autocracy is a dissident struggling to break free. But autocracy requires complicity.

— Melissa Chan (@melissakchan) January 27, 2023

Until we acknowledge that enough people in Russia and China buy the propaganda to sustain the autocracy — regardless of the A4 protests, etc. — we are failing to understand these societies as they are, but rather approaching them as we wish them to be.

— Melissa Chan (@melissakchan) January 27, 2023

Most folks are not cut out to fight autocracy. Most understandably want to focus on family, get a paycheck. The path of least resistance. But it does mean ethical compromises. We need to recognize this. Also, how much is democracy a miracle therefore if you think about it?!

— Melissa Chan (@melissakchan) January 27, 2023

Like with Germany, it was collective responsibility and ordinary people were complicit but hey, with Russia or China or whatever it's suddenly aw shucks these folks are just trying to get on with their lives and keep their heads low. And that just seems intellectually dishonest.

— Melissa Chan (@melissakchan) January 27, 2023

Here’s more on that Russian defector from Wagner:

"You have to handle defectors with skepticism, in an effort to reveal whether they’re double agents or part of a diversion strategy. "

False defectors have been a favored op method of Soviet CI since the 1920s. Genuine defectors always had a tough time. https://t.co/B3Sxh14Avt

— Filip Kovacevic (@ChekistMonitor) January 27, 2023

From News In English Norway:

UPDATED: A Russian deserter who was picked up by Norwegian soldiers on patrol along Norway’s border earlier this month is now facing lots of questions from police and security officials in Oslo. Skepticism has risen around his story of a dramatic escape from Russia, and some even wonder whether he may be a double agent sent into Norway by Russian officials.

Police confirmed on Monday that the young man, named Andrei Medvedev, had been arrested the day before and moved from an undisclosed location in Oslo. He was confined at an internment center near Oslo’s main airport at Gardermoen that’s normally used to detain illegal immigrants before they’re sent out of the country, until being released on Wednesday. He remains under restrictions, however, regarding his location for security reasons.

State police agency KRIPOS confirmed he had undergone questioning, but wouldn’t reveal what was discussed. Newspaper Aftenposten reported on Tuesday that the human rights organization Gulaga.net, through which Medvedev has channeled his communication since fleeing over the border, claimed he had been handcuffed and told he’d be deported.

His defense attorney in Oslo, Brynjulf Risnes, denied that to newspaper VG and state broadcaster NRK. “Deportation hasn’t been a theme now and it’s unthinkable because he has sought asylum,” Risnes told VG. Risnes added that “there are good reasons to believe what he says” regarding his alleged escape from the Wagner mercenary group that’s fighting for Russia in Ukraine. Medvedev has also claimed he’d be willing to testify about alleged war crimes committed by the Wagner group.Aftenposten has noted that Medvedev’s story about fleeing Wagner and Russia has only been told through videos published on Gulaga.net by its leader, the Russian activist Vladimir Osechkin. Others question how Medvedev, as a military deserter, could have managed to travel from Ukraine through Russia to the northern city of Murmansk and then through various Russian checkpoints from Murmansk to the heavily guarded border area aound Nikel. Medvedev and Osechkin claim he did have help from undisclosed sources. His story of running across the frozen Pasvik River that separates Russia and Norway in the middle of the night, while being chased by dogs and shot at, has puzzled residents of the area.

“I think someone must have been looking the other way in order for that to be possible,” Rolf Randa, a former border patrol office in Sør-Varanger, the region of Northern Norway that extends ot the border, told Aftenposten. Several others in the area also told the paper that they were skeptical because the area is under strict surveillance at all times, year ’round. When the ice melts, the river is also patrolled by boat.

Randa noted that documentation is needed in order to even be allowed to enter the border area on the Russia side. There also are many fences with control posts to go through before arriving at the border, the first one fully 40 kilometers away. The last fence is said to be three meters high and covered with barbed wire on both sides, with sandtraps below to help track anyone getting over it. A signal system mounted on the fence also sets off alarms if anyone comes in contact with it.

“It’s extremely difficult to cross the border illegally,” agreed Tom Røseth, an intelligence expert and instructor at Norway’s militarty college. He told Aftenposten that Medvedev “must have had help on the Russian side, which he says himself. That could have given him the necessary lead time he needed to cross.”

More at the link!

New thread from "Karl," the Estonian military analyst, on where we stand in Ukraine. With @holger_r:

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) January 27, 2023

Here’s the rest from the Thread Reader app:

“The amount and types of armor that Western countries have promised to send to Ukraine is noteworthy. We can presume that some countries will send a bit more than announced. It fulfills one criteria that will allow Ukraine to start a counteroffensive in the south this spring.”
“The terrain there is bare, it’s a steppe. It wouldn’t be possible to advance there without armor.”
“It is difficult to comprehend Germany’s (and partly America’s) fears of taking the decision to send tanks. In Germany’s case it must be a combination of historical fears, the Russian lobby especially inside Germany’s business sector and the indecisiveness of Scholz.”
“This combination caused the delayed decision. It was evident that Germany would not escape that decision. The pressure on them was so strong. Their resistance just didn’t make sense…”
“Among other things, it deepens the wounds that the Baltic countries and especially Poland have toward them. It is regrettable that Germany’s leadership role took another serious hit in our region.”
“Germany made another mistake when they announced sending the Leopards. They added a new public ‘red line’ about not giving Ukraine fighter jets. Why would you need to say out loud what you will not give?”
“Biden made the same mistake before the war. We have seen so many times how such ‘red lines’ have been erased soon afterwards.”
“From a military perspective Ukraine still needs two things. First, longer-range missile systems. Russia has taken its ammunition depots further away from the frontline. They are now 90-120 km away and out of HIMARS’ range.”
“Yes, it hampers their logistics but it also hinders Ukraine’s countering. It is more difficult to hit the trucks carrying ammunition than to hit a depot.”
“Secondly, Ukraine still needs fighter jets. If they sufficiently have all three types of weapons [tanks, long-range missiles, jets], it would allow them to break through the frontline at least in the south in late spring/early summer.”
“Ukraine says they’d need 350-400 tanks, but by the time of their spring offensive they will have around 200-250 including the modernized Soviet tanks given by some European countries.”
“It is a really remarkable number. Most experts agree that 1 Leopard is worth 2.5-4 Russian tanks due to superior firepower and maneuvering ability.”
“The delayed announcement about sending the tanks can postpone the start of the spring offensive by some weeks. The terrain would allow the offensive to start at least in the south in early April. Now it’s difficult to see it happen before May.”
“It’s worth noting that Germany has sent Ukraine 3.5 times more military aid than France but France has largely escaped similar levels of criticism. If you compare the two countries’ military capabilities, France is clearly better equipped.”
“Most Western European countries are well supplied with fighter jets. It’s one of the few areas where European militaries are good. A critical issue is how much ammunition can be produced and how fast can Ukraine do maintenance and repair works.”
“People are talking about an upcoming large-scale Russian offensive. I am moderately confident that Russia itself already thinks it is conducting one. It’s just that none of the others see it as large.”
“I am doubtful how good a picture Putin has about the status and readiness of its units.”
“Besides Bakhmut and Soledar, Russia is trying something near Vuhledar and Pavlivka about 30km southwest of Donetsk. Also, they have been conducting offensives north of Vasylivka (where the Dnipro river turns straight north and where there would be direct route to Zaporizhzhia).”
“But all of this seems to be largely resultless.”
“Last time they tried in Vuhledar was 2-3 months ago and they had 2 battalions worth of their marines killed in 3 days. They are also without any success in Kreminna and, if anything, Ukraine is really slowly advancing there.”
“As long as there will be no large and visible loss for Russia, Putin will try to avoid the next level of mobilization. Last time he announced it after the epic defeat in Kharkiv. Mobilization is one of the few things that actually decreases the popularity of war in Russia.”
“Putin’s instinct is not to do it. Let’s hope that he keeps on delaying it.”
“Ukraine has suffered a lot of casualties and their situation in Bakhmut is still very difficult. If Russia advances a few more kilometers in the south of Bakhmut, one of the most significant supply routes will be in a critical situation.” /END

The Guardian reports on a somewhat different anti-corruption effort in Ukraine.

The arrest of a high-ranking Ukrainian intelligence agent accused of spying for Russia has highlighted the urgent need for a cleanout of the country’s key security service, a former deputy head of the agency has said.

The Ukrainian security service (SBU) reported on Thursday that they arrested a lieutenant colonel in their ranks on suspicion of “high treason” and published a photograph of bundles of cash found in his home.

The unnamed man is said to have used his mobile phone to photograph documents detailing the location of military checkpoints in Zaporizhzhia, a frontline region in the south-east of the country, and sending the information via an email account registered on a Russian domain.

A photo issued alongside the official statement showed sim cards issued by Russian mobile carriers, bundles of foreign currency, a knuckle duster, two knives and a Russian language guide to learning English.

“Evidence of permanent connections with representatives of law enforcement and state bodies of the Russian Federation was also established,” the statement said. “In particular, close relatives of the traitor are among them.”

Maj Gen Viktor Yahun, who was deputy head of the SBU until, 2015, said there needed to a thorough cleanout of the service, which he said had long had an overly close relationship with its Russian counterpart, the FSB.

Following Russia’s invasion on 24 February last year, more than 60 members of the SBU and the prosecutor general’s office had remained in occupied territory and collaborated with the Russian forces, highlighting the scale of the infiltration of Ukrainian law enforcement by the Kremlin.

As late as 2010, Yahun said the SBU had internally celebrated KGB Day, marking the establishment of the communist-era Russian secret service, and there remained pro-Russian agents through the ranks of the service.

Yahun claimed that the biggest attack on a military site near Lviv in western Ukraine last year had been enabled by a 77-year-old former SBU agent who had passed on the coordinate details and that he feared many in the service still considered themselves Russian.

While the generation that worked for the Soviet security services had retired, Yahun added, the recruitment practices of the SBU meant that their sons and daughters were now in the agency.

“They grew up with the same values as their fathers,” he said. “Ukraine made a major mistake in not following the lead of the Baltic nations following independence in reforming the security services from ground zero.”

“Of course there were always patriots in the SBU, but they have been in the minority,” he said. “It is getting better and since 24 February President Zelenskiy has cleaned the top ranks, so I do not believe any vital strategic information has been passed to Russia. Now they are moving their way down the ranks.”

More at the link.

I want to highlight, again, why it is important that the Ukrainian authorities are not just trying to run this stuff to ground despite defending against the Russian invasion, but that they’re doing so publicly and/or not trying to use the war as a pretext to stifle reporting on the problem. There is not a state or a society on the planet that doesn’t have some form of public corruption problem. If I started listing just the different examples in the US, we’d be here for several hours. Unfortunately, we’ve legalized a lot of ours in the US. And the ones we haven’t we’ve just decided to either not prosecute at all or somehow treat differently because its committed by people in executive suites. It isn’t like we don’t have our own oligarch and kleptocracy problem, it’s just that very few of our elected officials or the news media that covers politics, finance, and business dare to use the terms to describe what is actually happening. And if you’re waiting for anyone in Federal law enforcement to take this seriously, I’ve got some lovely beach front property to sell you. The DOJ under Democratic appointed leadership won’t take action because it would look political and they don’t want to be accused of criminalizing politics and business. The DOJ under Republican appointed leadership actually aids and abets the corruption along because they could care less about whether they appear to be politicizing anything.

Anyhow, as states and societies seek to transition from authoritarian systems they actually become more susceptible to corruption. The transition creates opportunity. Because of the attempts by Russia to keep Ukraine within its orbit, first by coercion and the use of economic power and then, after 2014, by force, Ukraine’s transition has progressed in fits and starts. This too is not unusual. So taking these anti-corruption moves and doing so out in the open is a very positive sign.

Bellincat brings us an in depth investigation into the shelling of Mykolaiv from last April:

On April 4, 2022, Russian rocket artillery struck the Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv with cluster munitions. On the night of April 3, the Furshet shopping centre and nearby city hospital were attacked. Local media had published images to their Telegram channels at around midnight. At 8:03 in the morning of April 4, eyewitnesses told the Ukrainian website Prestupnosti.Net of damage to residential areas in the Zavodskyi District. Later, on the afternoon of April 4, a second attack followed in which a shopping precinct and a children’s hospital were attacked. Both were located in densely populated residential areas. According to the Mykolaiv regional prosecutor, 12 people died and 41 were injured from the attacks.

Videos of rocket launches began to appear on social media after the attacks, with the uploaders claiming that they were firing towards Mykolaiv. A close inspection of one of these videos has allowed Bellingcat to verify the location of the rocket launches likely behind the afternoon attack on the shopping precinct and children’s hospital. It is as yet unclear whether the same location and rocket launchers were implicated in the early morning attack that day.

Our geolocation suggests that the strike was launched by Russian forces from a location near the Inhulets River in the north of Russian-occupied Kherson Region; a chronolocation of the same videos indicates that one launch likely took place just minutes before the afternoon’s explosions at the shopping precinct and children’s hospital occurred.

This attack was one of dozens launched against the port city throughout the spring and summer of 2022, after Russian forces from occupied Crimea swept through Ukraine’s south and were held back by the Ukrainian army just outside Mykolaiv city. It came just days after a Russian cruise missile destroyed the regional government office on March 29, which Ukrainian officials say killed 12 people.
Mykolaiv’s Regional Governor Vitaly Kim narrowly avoided that attack on his workplace. By the time Ukraine’s army retook Kherson in November, Kim estimated that around 200,000 of Mykolaiv’s 470,000 residents remained in the city.

The Aftermath

As soon as news of the April 4 attacks broke, imagery emerged showing the scale of destruction. Locals shared videos and images on social media. These sources indicate that most casualties that day appeared to be concentrated in the commercial area where people had been working and shopping. There was also a public transit stop at this location.

The paediatric hospital shown in this surveillance footage is about 800m from another attack in Mykolaiv yesterday that killed multiple people near a shopping strip at 46.943047, 32.055330: https://t.co/iV07BMbjYY https://t.co/4hAqMu4hGO pic.twitter.com/dsJnk61MMy

— Jake Godin (@JakeGodin) April 5, 2022

Security footage from the paediatric hospital first appeared online the day after the attack on the Telegram channel of Governor Vitaly Kim, who shared it at 13:58 (local time). It was then widely amplified by the channel of the local branch of Suspilne, a Ukrainian media network. The video showed that the submunitions, which detach from the launch rocket close to impact and spray over a target area, hit the hospital at around 15:30, according to the timestamp of the CCTV camera. On April 8 Chief Doctor Oleksandr Plitkin told reporters for the TPK channel that nobody at the hospital was harmed physically, but that the hospital building did take exterior damage, of which photojournalists from NPR also published photographs.

This video, with a date and timestamp consistent with the @MSF_Ukraine report, shows an impact at the paediatric hospital.https://t.co/iz9XqOpMzK https://t.co/kO0MYUvRms pic.twitter.com/ea3ckTphGj

— Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins) April 5, 2022

The timing of these video clips offered clues as to when precisely the projectiles hit downtown Mykolaiv that afternoon. But where did they originate from?

Much, much, much more at the link

Spain:

Spain! pic.twitter.com/hByDVoUycn

— Paul Massaro (@apmassaro3) January 27, 2023

Poland:

Poland will hand over 60 tanks to #Ukraine. The famous Leopard-2 and PT-91 Twardy will strengthen 🇺🇦 Armed Forces. I'm grateful to @MorawieckiM and all the 🇵🇱 people for their strong support for 🇺🇦 on the way to victory.

— Denys Shmyhal (@Denys_Shmyhal) January 27, 2023

Kharkiv via Canada:

🇺🇦This is Bruce Perry, a 75 year old former military pilot from 🇨🇦Canada. He now takes care of rescued animals in Kharkiv #Ukraine. We love you Bruce❤️ pic.twitter.com/5twK9m3CeI

— Sofia Ukraini (@SlavaUk30722777) January 27, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Вічна пам‘ять усім жертвам Голокосту…

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron_official

The caption machine translates as:

Eternal memory to all victims of the Holocaust…

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 337: International Holocaust Remembrance Day Amidst Another Genocidal War in EuropePost + Comments (69)

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27

by Anne Laurie|  January 27, 20237:46 am| 66 Comments

This post is in: COVID-19 Coronavirus, Foreign Affairs

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 14

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Advisers to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Thursday unanimously voted in favor of using the same coronavirus strain for the initial COVID-19 vaccine doses and the boosters, to simplify the vaccination regimen in the United States. https://t.co/Hrxq2VlTpd

— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) January 27, 2023

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True numbers of #COVID19 cases in USA are GROSSLY understated due to home testing — perhaps by 80%https://t.co/0CNMo9yVQi

— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) January 26, 2023

Good to see: the US has passed through its peak of the XBB.1.5 wave with a >30% reduction of hospitalizations in the past 2 weekshttps://t.co/OYKQV32gvz
This reflects a high level of infection and vaccine-induced immunity relative to a troublesome variant pic.twitter.com/j21ful3M9i

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) January 25, 2023

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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27
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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 1
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Trust me, older people are massively dying in China, especially in rural areas. Nobody knows how this most populous country and world's second largest economy is really doing, not even that guy in Beijing, because nobody dares to tell him the truth.https://t.co/Yg7WNNVqQD

— Yaqiu Wang 王亚秋 (@Yaqiu) January 25, 2023

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 2
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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 3
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North Korea, back in pandemic news…
COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 4
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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 5
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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 6
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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 7
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SARS-CoV-2 variant update for the United Kingdom:

XBB.1.5 "Kraken" lineage (9%) is rising rapidly, challenging the incumbents CH.1.1 "Orthrus" (20%) and BQ.1.1 "Cerebrus" (16%).

Growth predicts XBB.1.5 taking over in late Jan. Faster in Scotland.https://t.co/jgbM0TG87f pic.twitter.com/eSpYB1b3EF

— Mike Honey (@Mike_Honey_) January 25, 2023

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 8
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CDC: Bivalent #Covid vaccination stops illness caused by the Kraken variant, XBB.1.5. Both Pfizer & Moderna produce bivalent Covid booster vaccines. Pfizer lab data show better antibody neutralization of the latest variants after the bivalent shot https://t.co/DZEGsWCPZ5

— delthia ricks 🔬 (@DelthiaRicks) January 26, 2023

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 9
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A major study finds that having COVID-19 makes you much likelier to suffer over twenty different heart conditions, including heart failure and strokes.

“It doesn’t matter if you are young or old, diabetic or not, obese or not, if you smoked, or didn’t.” https://t.co/5eAF4ym2WH

— Shailja Patel (@shailjapatel) January 24, 2023

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 10
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Real airborne mitigation guidance from an engineering org in a layperson-friendly format, nicely done👍🏻

Via @OhCasavant https://t.co/IG2Q2YQK90

— Naomi Wu 机械妖姬 (@RealSexyCyborg) January 26, 2023


From the .pdf:
COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 11
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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 12
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Vaccination with booster was associated with nearly half the frequency of #LongCovid compared with unvaccinated or 2-shots, without a booster pic.twitter.com/9TLe76NNKJ

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) January 26, 2023

Some people are conspiracy junkies…
COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 13
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… while others, like Emerald Robinson, are grifters.

Antivaxxers are convinced Damar Hamlin is being hidden away by Pfizer, and most believe recent public appearances by him are actually a body double.

They're demanding he personally reassure them with a video that he's not being played by an actor.

I'm serious, by the way. pic.twitter.com/QnNxgzPGjw

— Ben Collins (@oneunderscore__) January 25, 2023

You probably know everything in the argument below, but remember: Sharing is caring!

On conspiracy theories pic.twitter.com/iF6IWVlE8h

— ‏ًً (@politicalplayer) January 25, 2023

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27Post + Comments (66)

War for Ukraine Day 336: The Russians Renew Their Bombardment of Ukraine

by Adam L Silverman|  January 26, 20237:10 pm| 63 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

As seems to be the case every time Ukraine regains occupied ground or the allies and partners supporting Ukraine increase their support, Russia has once again renewed its bombardment of civilian targets today.

Terrorist state🇷🇺 launched a massive missile strike on 🇺🇦.
The enemy fired 55 air & sea-based missiles (Kh-101/555, Kh-47 Kinzhal, Kalibr, Kh-59).
47 cruise missiles were shot down by the assets of 🇺🇦Air Defence, 20 of them in the area of Kyiv.
We can't be broken! pic.twitter.com/UogcRyfbTl

— Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (@CinC_AFU) January 26, 2023

11 people were killed and 11 wounded in today's Russian missile strikes on Ukraine, according to the state emergency service. More than ten Ukrainian regions were affected by the attacks

— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) January 26, 2023

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

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Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, we withstood another massive missile strike by terrorists.

A strike that fully confirms everything we have been talking about with our partners both yesterday and since the beginning of our diplomatic marathon.

This evil, this Russian aggression can and should be stopped only with adequate weapons. The terrorist state will not understand anything else.

Weapons on the battlefield. Weapons that protect our skies.

New sanctions against Russia, i.e. political and economic weapons. And legal weapons – we need to work even harder to establish a tribunal for the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine and to compensate for all the damage caused by this war at the expense of Russian assets.

Every Russian missile against our cities, every Iranian drone used by terrorists is an argument why we need more weapons. Only weapons neutralize terrorists.

And I am grateful to everyone in the world who is really fighting terror together with us.

Who is speeding up the supply of necessary defense equipment to Ukraine and who is willing to increase sanctions pressure on the terrorist state.

In particular, we are expanding our tank coalition – there is a corresponding decision of Canada, and I am grateful for it. We already have 12 countries in our tank coalition.

Today, thanks to the air defense systems provided to Ukraine and the professionalism of our warriors, we managed to shoot down most of the Russian missiles and Shaheds.

These are at least hundreds of lives saved and dozens of infrastructure facilities preserved.

And I thank our Air Forces, each and every one who last night, this morning and afternoon ensured the defense of Ukraine against terrorists’ missiles and drones.

I would like to especially praise the warriors of the 96th Kyiv, 160th Odesa and 208th Kherson anti-aircraft missile brigades.

Unfortunately, it is difficult to provide 100% protection with air defense alone. Especially when terrorists use ballistic missiles.

Today there were missile hits. Unfortunately, there are wounded and dead. My condolences to all the families and friends…

This Russian terror requires asymmetrical responses. We need a new movement of our forces at the front. We need to ensure the defeat of the terrorists’ ground forces.

Whatever the Russian occupiers are planning, our preparation must be stronger.

We talk about it with our partners. And we discuss it at the meetings of the Staff.

Today was just such a meeting.

Details about the situation in the Donetsk region. Bakhmut, Vuhledar and the battle for Donbas in general.

I am grateful to all our units who demonstrate the resilience Ukraine needs, exhausting the occupier and destroying it.

The more Russia loses in this battle for Donbas, the less its overall potential will be.

At the meeting of the Staff we also discussed in detail what we should prepare for in the coming months. We know what the occupiers are planning. We are countering it.

This applies both to the supply of weapons and ammunition and to the overall strengthening of our defense forces.

Today, I held operational meetings on the situation in the energy sector – on existing deficits and recovery from terrorist attacks. Repair crews are working in all locations of the hits.

As of now, there are electricity supply restrictions in most of our regions. The most difficult situation is in Odesa, Lviv, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Sumy and Poltava regions.

Power engineers, utility workers and everyone involved in stabilizing the energy system will do everything necessary to restore generation and technical supply capacity. I thank everyone involved in this work.

I also thank everyone in the world who has helped and is helping Ukraine with energy equipment. To every country, every company and every person – to those millions of our friends who, through United24 or other support tools, prove that Russian terror must lose.

And one more thing.

Unfortunately, I have to repeat this for those who did not hear it well.

Any trip abroad by government officials, MPs, representatives of local authorities and other persons authorized to perform the functions of the state or local self-government, any of their trips abroad must comply with the relevant decision of the National Security and Defense Council, which you have all seen.

There will be no other trips abroad by officials or MPs in wartime.

I think this is fair.

I thank everyone who is fighting for Ukraine! I thank everyone who is working for our country and society!

Eternal memory to everyone whose life was taken by Russian terrorists!

Russia will be held accountable for terror.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Soledar and Bakhmut:

SOLEDAR AXIS /2200 UTC 26 JAN/ RU Wagner PMC units have consolidated control of Soledar and are now attempting to cut the T-05-13 HWY north of Bakhmut. It is assessed that RU units have reached the banks of the Bakhmutse River north and south of Blahodatne. pic.twitter.com/r4IONO0wHm

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 26, 2023

BAKHMUT AXIS /1330 UTC 26 JAN/ RU forces continue attempts to cut Bakhmut’s Lines of Communications and Supply (LOCS). RU forces at Soledar have reached positions near the T-05-13 HWY, other RU units have advanced northwest of Myika Pond in an attempt to sever the vital H-32 HWY pic.twitter.com/YbDOdslC7T

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 26, 2023

Today, Ukraine’s citizens are yet again forced to start the day by finding shelter from Russia’s missiles as air raid sirens sound across the country. #StandWithUkraine https://t.co/53MHT1bpFY pic.twitter.com/pnGLE3qffM

— Michael Carpenter, U.S. Ambassador to the OSCE (@USAmbOSCE) January 26, 2023

Kyiv:

Conference “Children and the war” in the bomb shelter in Kyiv. Doctors, psychologists are speaking now about children and their traumas. Outside- sounds of explosions #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/zShSCsZ3Sx

— Kristina Berdynskykh (@berdynskykh_k) January 26, 2023

The conference “Children and the war” in the bomb shelter in Kyiv. National Anthem of Ukraine #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/KK2nzEfPwv

— Kristina Berdynskykh (@berdynskykh_k) January 26, 2023

Kherson, details from Ukrinform:

Russian invaders shelled the Kherson region 36 times on January 25, killing two civilians and wounding five others.

That’s according to the Kherson Regional Military Administration, Ukrinform reports.

“In the past 24 hours, the Russian army killed two civilians. Five people were injured,” the report said.

According to the report, the Russian invaders used artillery, MLRS, mortars, and tanks. They also launched a missile attack against the region.

The Russian army shelled the city of Kherson five times, targeting residential areas of the city. Enemy projectiles hit the houses of Kherson residents.

Earlier reports said that Russian forces had hit the Turkish-owned ship Tuzla at the port of Kherson.

Tanks! Politico has the details:

The U.S. is planning to send Kyiv the Abrams main battle tank in its more advanced M1A2 configuration, rather than the older A1 version that the military has in storage, according to three people with knowledge of the deliberations.

But the 31 tanks slated for Ukraine will not include the secret armor mix that makes the Army’s newest version so lethal, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations.

The A2 version has more sophisticated optics and controls than the older A1 version, which the Army intends to retire in the next few years. Outwardly similar to the A1, the A2 has a redesigned commander’s weapon station with improved optics for targeting, and an independent thermal viewer that allows the commander to independently scan for targets in all weather and battlefield conditions.

The most radical changes are on the inside, which has been redesigned to take advantage of new technology. The control mechanisms are digitized, most notably a new inter-vehicle information system that allows vehicles to exchange information continuously and automatically. Using the new technology, commanders can rapidly track the location of friendly vehicles, identify enemy positions and process artillery requests.

But federal policy forbids the export of Abrams with classified armor packages used by the U.S. military, which includes depleted uranium, according to a fourth person with knowledge of the policy. The U.S. strips the vehicles of this secret armor “recipe” before selling them to other countries. There are other armor packages the U.S. can provide for foreign military sales customers.

Coming. Soon.
Be. Fearful. Enemy. pic.twitter.com/cyEf7UkfQA

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 26, 2023

Norway:

#Norway will provide Ukrainian soldiers with professional training as medical specialists, junior officers and snipers. The training will take place in Norway this spring and will continue throughout 2023. Norway will continue to support #Ukraine as long as necessary. pic.twitter.com/B6OHaSax4X

— Norwegian Armed Forces | Forsvaret (@Forsvaret_no) January 26, 2023

The US Departments of State and Treasury have designated Wagner PMC a transnational criminal organization and leveled added sanctions on Prigozhin. Here’s the transcript of Secretary Blinken’s remarks:

Countering the Wagner Group and Degrading Russia’s War Efforts in Ukraine
PRESS STATEMENT

ANTONY J. BLINKEN, SECRETARY OF STATE

JANUARY 26, 2023

The United States is sanctioning individuals and entities linked to Russia’s para-military Wagner Group and its head, Yevgeniy Prigozhin – including its key infrastructure and associated front companies, its battlefield operations in Ukraine, producers of Russia’s weapons, and those administering Russia-occupied areas of Ukraine. This action supports our goal to degrade Moscow’s capacity to wage war against Ukraine, to promote accountability for those responsible for Russia’s war of aggression and associated abuses, and to place further pressure on Russia’s defense sector.

In November 2022, the Department of State designated the Wagner Group pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating in the defense and related materiel sector of the Russian economy. It was previously designated by OFAC in June 2017 under E.O. 13660 for being responsible for or complicit in, or having engaged in, directly or indirectly, actions or policies that threaten the peace, security, stability, sovereignty, or territorial integrity of Ukraine.

Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is designating the Wagner Group as a significant transnational criminal organization pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13581, as amended by E.O. 13863. The Wagner Group’s pattern of serious criminal behavior includes violent harassment of journalists, aid workers, and members of minority groups and harassment, obstruction, and intimidation of UN peacekeepers in the Central African Republic (CAR), as well as rape and killings in Mali.

Concurrently, OFAC is designating Wagner pursuant to E.O. 13667 for being responsible for or complicit in, or having engaged in, the targeting of women, children, or any civilians through the commission of acts of violence, or abduction, forced displacement, or attacks on schools, hospitals, religious sites, or locations where civilians are seeking refuge, or through conduct that would constitute a serious abuse or violation of human rights or a violation of international humanitarian law in relation to CAR.

Further, the Department of State is designating today five entities and one individual linked to the Wagner Group and Prigozhin. These designations target a range of Wagner’s key infrastructure – including an aviation firm used by Wagner, a Wagner propaganda organization, and Wagner front companies. OFAC is also designating persons and entities based in CAR, the People’s Republic of China, Luxembourg, and the United Arab Emirates that are connected to Wagner’s operations around the world.

The Department is also designating under E.O. 14024 three individuals for their roles as heads of the Russian Federal Penitentiary Service, which has been reported to facilitate the recruitment of Russian prisoners into the Wagner Group. The Department is also designating a Deputy Prime Minister who also serves as the Minister of Industry and Trade and the Chairman of the Election Commission of the Rostov Region.

The Department is further designating under E.O. 14024 one individual and four entities associated with Russian Oligarch Vladimir Potanin, who was sanctioned pursuant to E.O. 14024 in December 2022. Similarly, the Department is designating Sergei Adonev, a financier of Russian President Putin, alongside several associated entities and individuals. The Department is also identifying two yachts and one aircraft associated with Adonev as blocked property.

Additionally, the Department is designating under E.O. 14024 Aktsionernoye Obshchestvo Dalnevostochnyy TsentrSudostroyeniya i Sudoremonta (AO DTSSS) alongside eight subsidiaries. AO DTSSS and its subsidiaries are known for building and servicing Russia’s military, including its Pacific Fleet.

Finally, the Department is announcing steps to impose visa restrictions on 531 members of the Russian military for actions that threaten or violate the sovereignty, territorial integrity, or political independence of Ukraine pursuant to Section 212(a)(3)(C) of the Immigration and Nationality Act.

These actions also advance President Biden’s plan to promote accountability for conflict-related sexual violence, which calls for federal agencies to leverage existing sanctions authorities to pursue its perpetrators.

The United States is steadfast in our resolve against Russia’s aggression and other destabilizing behavior worldwide. Today’s designations will further impede the Kremlin’s ability to arm its war-machine that is engaged in a war of aggression against Ukraine, and which has caused unconscionable death and destruction.

For more information on today’s action, please see the Department of State’s fact sheet, the Department of the Treasury’s press release, and the White House Presidential Memorandum.

In other Wagner news, Reuters published a long form deep dive into Wagner KIAs in Ukraine:

Late last summer, a plot of land on the edge of a small farming community in southern Russia began to fill with scores of newly dug graves of fighters killed in Ukraine. The resting places were adorned with simple wooden crosses and brightly coloured wreaths that bore the insignia of Russia’s Wagner Group – a feared and secretive private army.

There were around 200 graves at the site on the outskirts of Bakinskaya village in Krasnodar region when Reuters visited in late January. The news agency matched the names of at least 39 of the dead here and at three other nearby cemeteries to Russian court records, publicly available databases and social media accounts. Reuters also spoke to family, friends and lawyers of some of the dead.

Many of the men buried at Bakinskaya were convicts who were recruited by Wagner last year after its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, promised a pardon if prisoners survived six months at the front, this reporting showed. They included a contract killer, murderers, career criminals and people with alcohol problems.

For months, Wagner has been locked in a bloody battle of attrition to take the towns of Bakhmut and Soledar in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Western and Ukrainian officials have said it is using convicts as cannon fodder to overwhelm Ukraine’s defences. Toughening sanctions on Wagner this month, White House national security spokesman John Kirby branded the group “a criminal organisation that is committing widespread atrocities and human rights abuses.” In a short open reply to the U.S. government, Prigozhin asked Kirby to “please clarify what crime was committed” by Wagner.

Videos and photographs of the graves first appeared on social media channels in the Krasnodar region in December. Reuters geolocated these images to the Bakinskaya cemetery and reviewed satellite imagery of the site from Maxar Technologies and Capella Space. Satellite pictures show that the Wagner plot was empty in the summer, had three rows of graves by the end of November and was three-quarters full by early January. Virtually the entire plot was used by Jan. 24.

Local activist Vitaly Votanovsky, who took the first pictures and has documented soldiers killed in Ukraine and buried in Krasnodar region graveyards, told Reuters he observed a truck delivering bodies to the cemetery. He said gravediggers told him the bodies had come from the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, close to Russia’s border with Donetsk region. When Reuters visited the cemetery in January, fences and security cameras were being installed around the plot and another burial was underway.

Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti published footage in early January of Prigozhin visiting the cemetery, crossing himself and laying flowers on one grave. He told local media that the men buried there had expressed a wish to be laid to rest at a Wagner chapel outside the nearby town of Goryachiy Klyuch, rather than having their bodies returned to relatives. The Bakinskaya plot was provided by the local authorities, he said, after the chapel ran out of space. In 2019, Reuters reported on the existence of a Wagner training camp in the village of Molkino, around 5 miles (9 km) from Bakinskaya.

Of the 39 convicts Reuters identified, 10 had been imprisoned for murder or manslaughter, 24 for robbery and two for grievous bodily harm. Other crimes included manufacturing or dealing in drugs and blackmail. Among the convicts were citizens of Ukraine, Moldova, and the Russian-backed breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia. Wooden markers on their graves at Bakinskaya and three nearby cemeteries show the men perished between July and December 2022, at the height of the battle for Bakhmut.

One of the youngest, buried at the nearby Martanskaya cemetery, is Vadim Pushnya. He was just 25 years old when he died on Nov. 19. Pushnya was imprisoned in 2020 for burgling garages, a beer shop and a cement factory in his hometown of Goryachiy Klyuch, close to the Wagner chapel. The birthdate on Pushnya’s grave matches the date given on his social media accounts and in court records.

The oldest, Fail Nabiev, was serving one-and-a-half years for burglary in Ivanovo region’s Penal Colony No. 2, 200 miles northeast of Moscow, at least his second such prison spell. He had been convicted in May 2022 by a court in the picturesque tourist town of Suzdal of stealing a string trimmer and a sanding machine valued at a total of 5,500 roubles ($80) from a garage. According to his simple wooden grave marker, emblazoned with an Islamic crescent moon, Nabiev died in October, less than five months after being sentenced. He was 60.

Much, much, much more at the link. Including imagery.

Here’s some imagery from a much larger thread:

Why? It may be because the Wagner chapel is located next to the Psekups River, actively used by households along the stream, @kavkaz_realii reporting suggests. Not good to put a burial ground next to it, local environmentalists warned. https://t.co/qde1qg2pKG 📸:@bloknot_krd pic.twitter.com/cAVpQHbP8d

— Christiaan Triebert (@trbrtc) January 25, 2023

This is an interesting thread:

Putin's remark today about "Ukrainian nationalists" shooting 🇺🇦 soldiers in the back in order to prevent them from defecting captures the challenge Kyiv and the West are facing: a reckless, emotional leader who has boxed himself into a terrible information bubble.
A short 🧵 pic.twitter.com/xNmiFtI0nm

— Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士 (@AlexGabuev) January 25, 2023

2/ When asked today about the situation on the frontline, Putin said that Kyiv has created retreat-blocking detachments (заградотряды) staffed with “🇺🇦 nationalists.” According to Putin, he learned about it a week ago while meeting “our boys” (ребята). 
3/ Of course, there is no credible information about such units in 🇺🇦. Putin knows the practice from 🇷🇺 history, with Stalin’s July 1942 decree №227 being the most famous example. So was Putin consciously lying? We can’t know for sure, but it might be that he believes it. 

4/ Needless to say, Putin’s and the Kremlin’s relationship with truth is…well…complicated, to put it mildly, as my @CarnegieEndow colleague @ChristopherJBor documents in this excellent piece.

Why The Kremlin Lies: Understanding Its Loose Relationship With the TruthRussian leaders have used deception for strategic ends in ways that shed light on their geopolitical goalshttps://carnegieendowment.org/2022/01/06/why-kremlin-lies-understanding-its-loose-relationship-with-truth-pub-86132
5/ But this statement by Putin sounds not as his usual lie, but as information that he’s picked up from someone he trusts. Since 2020 Putin, who had one of the worst work-from-home experiences, has developed a habit of talking to low ranked people directly involved in issues. 
6/ For example, in 2021 he claimed that, according to his conversations with people in the know, many Europeans travel to Russia to get @sputnikvaccine, and then allegedly buy fake @pfizer vaccination certificates in EU because they have more trust in 🇷🇺 vaccines 🤦‍♂️ 
7/ Today’s remark is not dissimilar, and the likely source of Putin’s knowledge are either soldiers from the frontlines in Ukraine, or so called “war correspondents” (in fact, 🇷🇺 military propagandists) whom Putin, distrustful of his generals, meets now on a regular basis. 

8/ In this piece for @CEIP_Politika Andrey Pertsev documents some of these meetings and the impact they have on Putin’s grasp of the war dynamics:

Lord of the Masses: How Russia’s Fringe Elements Went MainstreamPutin’s immersion in the “masses” is becoming dangerous. His vocabulary and behavior are growing increasingly marginal, and the communication style of other high-ranking officials will in turn inevita…https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88401

9/ This well-researched story by @WSJ (@evangershkovich, @tggrove, @drewhinshaw, @JoeWSJ) provides some additional context on Putin’s isolation and his attempts to work around the chain of command to find out “truth” from “ordinary people” on the ground:

Putin, Isolated and Distrustful, Leans on Handful of Hard-Line AdvisersRussia’s president built a power structure designed to deliver him the information he wants to hear, feeding into his miscalculations on the Ukraine war.https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-russia-ukraine-war-advisers-11671815184
10/ Why is this important? Because some crucial decisions the Kremlin makes about the war may be based on same quality “information” like Putin has shared today. The fact that there is no dispassionate interagency process in 🇷🇺, but an emotional and misinformed leader is chilling 
11/ This reality must feature prominently in quiet discussions that Western supporters of Ukraine have with leaders in Kyiv, as @IgnatiusPost describes in @washingtonpost based on interviews with @SecBlinken and other senior 🇺🇸 officials. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/…
12/ There is a risk of overestimating Putin’s rationality and neglecting his growing detachment from reality when trying to redraw Moscow’s red lines. So far the West managed to do it in a firm, but careful manner avoiding doomsday scenarios. END

That’s enough for today.

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Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 336: The Russians Renew Their Bombardment of UkrainePost + Comments (63)

War for Ukraine Day 335: A Few Odds and Ends

by Adam L Silverman|  January 25, 20238:54 pm| 98 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

First off, my official Ukraine national team hockey jersey has arrived! Looks great, fits great, I’m thrilled. I cannot recommend the Ukrainian Music and Gift Shop, as well as its owner Andrey, enough! Click across and do some shopping if you’re interested.

I just want to deal with a couple of things in the comments from last night/this morning before we get into the meat of the update. First up Wvng:

As a member of Clan McPherson I say ” Meow!”

My housemate when I was doing my first masters in Scotland was a Lees, which is part of Clan McPherson. Which is why I knew the clan motto and used it last night.

Next up some guy named Carlo:

Meanwhile UA officers are getting lectured by the academic stars of the US Army War College—the modern counterpart of the Prussian/German General Staff pros—on combined-arms operations and tactics, weapons, logistics, intelligence, etc.

I am sorry to have to disabuse you of this lovely notion, but no one at US Army War College is lecturing anyone on any of those things except, maybe, logistics and intelligence at the strategic level. It is not what is done there. The US Army War College is the Senior Leader College (SLC) that focuses on the strategic application of landpower. While I’m sure there have been curricular changes since my assignment there ended, the core resident course is Theories of War and Strategy, National Security Strategy and Policy, Strategic Leadership, Theater Strategy and Campaigning, Defense Management, and a Regional Studies elective. They may or may not have put Strategic Thinking or something equivalent back into the curriculum rather than distribute the lessons throughout the rest of the core. Everyone has to take a regional study course, the elective is the students get to pick which one they’re interested in. And then the students all take several electives. And they do a strategy research project (SRP), which is sort of equivalent to a masters thesis. The curriculum is directed via the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Instruction 1800.01f/The Officers’ Professional Military Education Policy (OPMEP). The Senior Leader Colleges provide Joint Professional Military Education Level 2 (JPME2) education. You can find the requirements for what must be taught in Enclosure A pages A1 through the top of A6 of the OPMEP. Some of the commanders of the US military elements that are training Ukrainian personnel are US Army War College graduates or the graduates of the other Senior Leader Colleges. I taught Theories of War and Strategy, National Security Policy and Strategy, did lesson blocks covering my specialty in several of the Regional Studies electives, taught my own elective on culture for strategy and policy, and did lesson blocks in other electives, as well as the specialty Advanced Strategic Arts Program and National Security and Strategy Program courses.

Here is President Zelesnkyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

show full post on front page

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today is a day of extremely good news for Ukraine. There is a tank coalition. There is a decision to launch the supply of tanks for our defense. Modern tanks.

I started this day with a conversation with Chancellor Scholz, primarily about Leopards for Ukraine. And this is exactly the kind of conversation we expected.

I thank Mr. Chancellor, all German politicians and public figures for their willingness to strengthen the defense of Europe!

There is a very powerful step by the United States – this is how the day begins in America. Ukraine will receive Abrams, thank you for this decision.

I personally thank Mr. President Biden, I thank the Congress, I thank every American family for the tangible strength of American global leadership!

I am grateful to all our allies for their willingness to provide us with modern and much-needed tanks.

All this proves the most important fact for the world today – the fact that freedom is only getting stronger. And the way we are all working together to strengthen freedom, to defend Ukraine and Europe, is a historic achievement of the leaders who are working now.

The key thing now is speed and volume. The speed of training of our military, the speed of supplying tanks to Ukraine. The volume of tank support.

We must form a tank fist, a fist of freedom whose hits will not let tyranny stand up again.

We can do it. Together and only in the same way as we are making decisions today. Important decisions.

It is very important that there is progress in other aspects of our defense cooperation as well.

Today I spoke with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. We have to unlock the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine, it is important for us to expand our cooperation in artillery, we have to achieve the supply of aircraft to Ukraine. And this is a dream. And this is a task. An important task for all of us.

The more defense support our heroes at the front receive from the world, the sooner Russia’s aggression will end and the more reliable the security guarantees for Ukraine and all our partners will be after the war.

The terrorist state must lose. The right to life must be protected. And it will be so.

There are two more important decisions today. The first is from the ECHR. The second is from UNESCO.

The European Court of Human Rights has announced its decision on the admissibility of the case concerning Russia’s seizure of the territories of the east of Ukraine in 2014 and the occupiers’ large-scale violation of human rights.

This is still an interim legal decision. But thanks to this decision, we have become closer to the day when Russia will be held accountable for its aggression, and on the same scale from a legal point of view as Russia has invested in this evil.

UNESCO has inscribed the historic center of Odesa on the World Heritage List. Moreover, on the List of World Heritage in Danger. Danger because of the war unleashed by Russia.

This international step will help us defend our Odesa. Ukraine and the world give protection. Russia can give nothing but terror and strikes. These are facts.

Today I had a meeting with the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. The conversation was primarily about our people who were forcibly deported to Russia by the occupiers. These are both adults and our children. The world needs a global mechanism of influence in such situations.

We need a mechanism to protect and return such people, to bring to justice all those responsible for deportation.

I am confident that the UN institutions can show their leadership in resolving this issue.

Today I would like to praise our units that continue to hold back the occupier’s attacks in the Donetsk region. This is where Russia is constantly trying to break our defense. Dozens of enemy attacks every day. And at least hundreds of examples of heroism of our warriors every day.

I thank the warriors of the 110th separate mechanized brigade, 79th separate air assault brigade, 35th separate marine brigade and 55th separate artillery brigade. Thank you, warriors, for your resilience and courage, which inspire the world to provide more and more assistance to Ukraine!

And one more thing. I would like to express gratitude for the very touching words of support and congratulations that I have heard and seen from so many different people. From the military. From the leaders and ordinary people. From all Ukrainians and foreigners. From colleagues now and colleagues before. Thank you all!

I think we have the same wish, in fact. A common wish. This is victory. We will do it. We are doing everything for the sake of Ukraine’s victory. And it will happen. I know it will.

Glory to Ukraine!

Ukraine is to receive 80 battle tanks from Europe

12 countries (Poland, Germany, Portugal, Spain, Norway, Finland, Netherlands, Canada,&others) expressed willingness to transfer Leopard2 tanks. Coalition plans to form 2 full tank battalions (80 vehicles) https://t.co/lYOZtc1dnJ pic.twitter.com/VUMJfrcWYF

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) January 25, 2023

So, we apparently get 31 M1s.
Of course, that’s a longer-term perspective.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 25, 2023

Today is, or was in Ukraine as it is tomorrow there already, President Zelenskyy’s birthday. First Lady Zelenska had some birthday thoughts:

I wish you to have more reasons for smiling. And you know what it takes. We all do.
You are stubborn enough. But the main thing is to have enough health. So please, be healthy! I want to smile near you forever. Give me this opportunity! 2/2

— Олена Зеленська (@ZelenskaUA) January 25, 2023

President Zelenskyy has to be the first person to get tanks for his birthday.

Thank you @POTUS for another powerful decision to provide Abrams to 🇺🇦. Grateful to 🇺🇸 people for leadership support! It's an important step on the path to victory. Today the free world is united as never before for a common goal – liberation of 🇺🇦. We're moving forward

— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) January 25, 2023

Had a 📞 call with @SecDef Lloyd James Austin III
Discussed the results of #Ramstein 8, further strengthening of #UAarmy, including tanks supplies&maintenance of the new armament.
More good news to be announced soon.
We have full trust&strong support of 🇺🇸
Together until victory! pic.twitter.com/XaoRv1EGVn

— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) January 25, 2023

Putin, of course, did not take the day off to celebrate:

Air strike alert in all regions of #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/Basm269YKm

— Ukraine Front Lines (@EuromaidanPR) January 25, 2023

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Kremenna and Bakhmut:

KREMINNA /1350 UTC 25 JAN/ UKR forces are advancing NE of Dibrova. During 23-24 JAN, RU increased close air support / aviation strike missions. UKR reports that air defense downed a Su-25 strike aircraft, 3 Ka-52 attack helicopters, 4 recon UAVs, and 1 Lancet loitering munition. pic.twitter.com/3AlSIA3imD

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 25, 2023

BAKHMUT / 1310 UTC 25 JAN / RU troops press offensive operations on the Bakhmut Area of Operation (AO). An increase in RU Close Air Support Sorties has resulted in a number of kills for UKR air deference. UKR shot down a Su-25 strike aircraft and 3 RU Ka-52 attack helicopters. pic.twitter.com/ft5JfPE9za

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 25, 2023

Berdiansk via the Military Center:

Around 4:00 p.m. on January 24, a car was blown up in Berdiansk. It belongs to Valentyna Mamai, an ex-city council member from the Opposition Platform – For Life political party.

Ivan Fedorov, Mayor of Melitopol, reported on this.

“A warm greeting in the form of the exploded car was received by a local lover of the Russian world, Valentyna Mamai. She gladly welcomed the invaders, held a pseudo-referendum, and betrayed the patriots of Berdiansk,” he wrote.

Valentyna Mamai was in the car at the time of the explosion. Her current condition is unknown.

Here’s video of the car after the explosion.

Switzerland via Reuters republished at YahooNews:

GENEVA (Reuters) – A Swiss parliamentary body proposed on Tuesday waiving a re-export ban that prevents ammunition it manufactures from being re-exported from another country to Ukraine.

The recommendation passed with 14 in favour and 11 against and will require later approval from parliament.

“The majority of the commission deems that Switzerland should make a contribution to European security, which includes providing more aid to Ukraine,” a Swiss parliamentary committee said in a press release late on Tuesday.

Switzerland has previously rejected appeals from Germany to allow it to re-export Swiss-made ammunition to Ukraine, saying such a move would violate its neutrality. But pressure has been rising for Bern to review its policies, including at the World Economic Forum it hosted in Davos last week.

The committee added in the statement that its proposals did not violate Swiss neutrality rules since the arms would go via another country and not directly to a conflict zone.

Regardless of the justification and rationalization, this is an encouraging development.

Morocco:

Morocco donates more than 20 tanks to Ukraine https://t.co/YaA6fU91Br

— Steven Chase (@stevenchase) January 25, 2023

Interfax-Ukraine has the details:

The Moroccan army has handed over to Ukraine about 20 T-72B tanks that have been upgraded in the Czech Republic at the repair line of the Excalibur workshops, MENA Defense, an information magazine on military issues of the Maghreb countries, reported on Sunday.

“About twenty units were sent to the battlefield a week ago and they were visible during the visit of Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala to the workshops of the Excalibur Army company in Sternberk, which had carried out their refurbishment,” the publication reported.

The exact number of units of transferred equipment is unknown. According to the publication, the Moroccan army had 148 T-72s, 136 T-72Bs and 12 T-72BKs, which the country purchased in two batches in 1999 and 2000.

“Morocco’s decision to deliver arms to Ukraine was taken, almost under duress, during the Rammstein summit for Ukraine which took place on April 26, 2022 and which was hosted by the United States. At this summit, Tunisia and Morocco were the only two countries to represent North Africa. Tunis had dispatched at the time two cargo planes to Rzeszow airport in Poland, which centralizes logistical aid to Ukraine and there Morocco seems to have followed suit by sending not humanitarian aid but outright weapons,” the publication said.

Israel, once again never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity, via Axios:

The Biden administration asked Israel for the old Hawk anti-aircraft missiles it has in storage in order to transfer them to Ukraine, three Israeli and U.S. officials told Axios.

Why it matters: Israel has so far rejected most U.S. and Ukrainian requests to provide advanced and defensive weaponry to Ukraine over concerns that such a move could create tensions with Russia and harm Israeli security interests in Syria.

  • Ukraine has repeatedly asked Western countries for such weapons to help it defend itself against Russian strikes.
    • A U.S. official said similar requests were made to several other countries that had the system in active service or in storage.
    • The senior Israeli official said an Israeli Defense Ministry official told their U.S. counterparts there is no change in Israel’s policy not to provide weapons systems to Ukraine.
    • According to the Israeli official, the Defense Ministry official said Israel’s Hawk systems are “obsolete” and can’t function because of how long they’ve been in storage without maintenance.
    • But the Israeli officials say that the response wasn’t accurate. They stressed that while the launchers might be completely dysfunctional, the hundreds of Hawk interceptors Israel has in storage can be refurbished and used.
    • The Israeli Defense Ministry reiterated to Axios in a statement that the “position of the Israel security establishment [on giving military aid to Ukraine] hasn’t changed. Every request is being reviewed on a case-by-case basis.”Between the lines: Russia holds enormous influence in Syria but allows Israel to operate freely against Iranian activity there.Behind the scenes: Senior Israeli and U.S. officials said the Pentagon reached out to the Israeli Defense Ministry two weeks ago and requested the Hawk systems that are in storage in order to transfer them to Ukraine.

More at the link!

For those of you interested in logistics and acquisition, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) did a recent exercise to examine how the US defense industrial base would be able to respond in support of Taiwan if the PRC invaded. Here’s the summary:

The U.S. defense industrial base is not adequately prepared for the international security environment that now exists. In a major regional conflict—such as a war with China in the Taiwan Strait—the U.S. use of munitions would likely exceed the current stockpiles of the U.S. Department of Defense. According to the results of a series of CSIS war games, the United States would likely run out of some munitions—such as long-range, precision-guided munitions—in less than one week in a Taiwan Strait conflict. The war in Ukraine has also exposed serious deficiencies in the U.S. defense industrial base and serves as a stark reminder that a protracted conflict is likely to be an industrial war that requires a defense industry able to manufacture enough munitions, weapons systems, and matériel to replace depleted stockpiles.

As timelines for a possible conflict in Asia shrink, the goal should be to support the production capacity required to enable the United States and its allies and partners to deter and, if deterrence fails, fight and win at least one major theater war—if not two. “Just in time” and lean manufacturing operations must be balanced with carrying added capacity. The U.S. Department of Defense, in coordination with Congress, should develop a plan now that involves taking steps to streamline and improve production, acquisitions, replenishment, Foreign Military Sales, ITAR, and other policies and procedures. A revitalization of the defense industrial base will not happen overnight for the United States or its allies and partners. It is time to prepare for the era of competition that now exists.

Here’s the video about the simulation:

And here’s the link to the pdf report that presents the exercise and the results.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Patron the dog in a duet with Artem Pyvovarov have already earned UAH 258 000!! 🤯

They will raise half a million hryvnias to save animals from the liberated territories.

You can also support them and join this great cause! 😉♥️
https://t.co/yyrRODg4er pic.twitter.com/fPgqwGPAkJ

— UAnimals.ENG 🇺🇦 (@UAnimalsENG) January 25, 2023

Here’s a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

При зйомці відео жоден Патрон не постраждав🙃 #песпатрон

♬ sonido original – Dania Alvarado

The caption machine translates as:

No Patrons (cartridges) were damaged during the video shooting 🙃 #песпатрон

That does not sound like revelry to me. It does sound like:

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 335: A Few Odds and EndsPost + Comments (98)

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