Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

When they say they are pro-life, they do not mean yours.

We can show the world that autocracy can be defeated.

This really is a full service blog.

“I was told there would be no fact checking.”

Come on, man.

Dumb motherfuckers cannot understand a consequence that most 4 year olds have fully sorted out.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Fundamental belief of white supremacy: white people are presumed innocent, minorities are presumed guilty.

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

If you don’t believe freedom is for everybody, then the thing you love isn’t freedom, it is privilege.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

There are some who say that there are too many strawmen arguments on this blog.

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

Nothing worth doing is easy.

These days, even the boring Republicans are nuts.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

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Tennessee House Special Election – Truly Neck and Neck (Open Thread)

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Emerson College Poll (via Simon Rosenberg):

Tennessee House Special Election – Truly Neck and Neck

“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Those who report voting early break for Behn, 56% to 42%, whereas those who plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51% to 39%. Voters under 40 are Behn’s strongest group, 64% of whom support her, while Van Epps’ vote increases with age, to 61% of those over 70.”

“There is also a stark gender divide; men break for Van Epps by nine points, 51% to 42%, whereas women break for Behn by six, 50% to 44%,” Kimball added.

Behn and Van Epps each have a 47% favorable rating among voters, and a 41% unfavorable rating.

“Similar to the gender divide on the ballot test, 54% of women have a favorable view of Behn, compared to 41% of men, and 52% of men have a favorable view of Van Epps, and 42% of women have a favorable view of Van Epps,” Kimball noted.

President Trump holds a 47% job approval rating among Tennessee 7th District voters, and a 49% disapproval rating.

“President Trump’s approval rating is a stark reversal from last November, when he carried the district by 22 points. The decline is driven by independents, among whom 59% disapprove and just 34% approve,” Kimball said.

The economy is the top issue for 38% of Tennessee voters, followed by housing affordability (15%), healthcare (13%), threats to democracy (13%), immigration (6%), crime (5%), and education (5%).

Among those who say the economy is the top issue facing the state, 48% plan to support Van Epps and 44% Behn.

So, who’s gonna help make calls?

Remote phone banking for Aftyn.

I normally feel like late money less than a week to go is like flushing money down the toilet.

But that may not be true this time!

Not necessarily encouraging donations, but it sure can’t hurt.  Thermometers are in the sidebar if you’re so inclined.

NO REGRETS.

 

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More and Better Democrats – A Long Shot Becomes a Potential Flip – Hello, Tennessee!

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Looking for something constructive to do while we await actually good information about what might or might not come out of the Senate?

A Democrat winning what has been a Republican House seat in TN would narrow their majority even more. You can write postcards for this House special election House in TN; you can contribute to this fundraiser; you can post the link to our thermometer on social media.  In case you want to share, here’s the direct link to the thermometer.

We are more than halfway to our $7,500 goal!

Yesterday’s post:

Flash Fundraising – A Long Shot Becomes a Potential Flip – Hello, Tennessee!

Here are some highlights.

  • Republican Congressman (TN-07) resigned from his “safe” seat in July.
  • Bruising Republican primary in early October.
  • Republican candidate ties himself closely to Trump.
  • Community organizer and state representative wins the 4-way Democratic primary.
  • Elections results last Tuesday happened.
  • Suddenly the “safe” Republican seat isn’t so safe!
  • Cook has this seat at R+10.

Given the current environment, this is winnable!

  • Aftyn Behn is a fighter and a progressive
  • She was polling within 8 points of the Republican even before last Tuesday’s election.
  • The dstrict was part of an egregious Republican gerrymander that split Nashville into three separate districts.
  • The district has a substantial military presence in Clarksville, who are likely displeased with potentially losing pay.
  • It’s not uncommon for military families to be on SNAP.

Gerrymandering can backfire in a wave election, bitches!

Nice of the Republican candidate to tie himself so closely to Trump, don’t you think?

Suddenly lots of dark money flowing in from the Republican sides to keep this seat Republican.

We want to get Aftyn our funds before early voting starts this Wednesday!

Who doesn’t need insurance?

Would it be great to have one more Democratic vote in the House?

Not only that, but a win here – in TN of all places! – could be our insurance policy if they can pressure one of the 4 Republicans to remove their signature from the Epstein discharge petition.

It’s one thing to be pressured when you are the ONE VOTE that could make or break it.  There’s a lot less pressure if they have to get TWO OF YOU to fold.

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Flash Fundraising – A Long Shot Becomes a Potential Flip – Hello, Tennessee!

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On Wisconsin!

Meet Democrat Aftyn Behn!

Last Tuesday changed everything.

A special Congressional election in Tennessee that was flying under the radar and overshadowed by Virginia, New Jersey and the California initiative is suddenly front-and-center in a newly charged environment for the Dems.

How did we get here?

Republican Congressman Mark Green (who won the 7th District by 20 points) resigned in July to “take a job in the private sector” (can you say Republican grift?), opening up what the party assumed was a safe seat.

At the time, it probably did indeed seem safe!

Why the (misplaced) confidence?  The 7th District’s unholy birth resulted from a Republican gerrymandering effort that carved up liberal Nashville into three separate districts.  The 7th covers the western and northern parts of Davidson County, and a whole bunch of rural counties.  The other significant population center is Clarksville, Tennessee’s fifth largest city, with a substantial military population attributable to its proximity to Fort Campbell.

Trump won this district by 22 points in 2024.  Cook has it at R+10.

The Republican candidate, Mark Van Etta, survived an expensive and bruising primary (October 7) by tying himself closely to Trump.   (Anyone think he might be regretting that now?)

The Democrat, Aftyn Behn, squeaked out a plurality in a four-way contest.  Aftyn was a community organizer and state representative in Nashville.  Here’s how she was described by the Tennessee Outlook:

Behn ran as a progressive outsider, advocating that the only way a Democratic candidate could win the heavily Republican district was with an energized turnout.

She distinguished herself as “a firebrand attitude at debates”.

Here’s a link to Aftyn’s website.

There is plenty of dark money flowing in on the Republican side, including an unidentified donor who produced a commercial featuring Van Etta in his military uniform as a “MAGA warrior.”  That could backfire now!

Special Election on Dec 2 / Early voting starts this Wednesday

The special election will be held on December 2 (less than two months after the primary).

The Democrats are getting fired up.  DNC Chair Ken Martin is in Nashville this weekend hosting campaign and GOTV events for Aftyn.

It’s not the long-shot that the District’s raw numbers would suggest.  Polls before last week’s election showed the Republican with a 52-44 advantage – an entirely bridgeable gap with a fired-up electorate and substantial turnout.

We supported Virgin (oops, Virgil) Thornton in VA, who won with something like 51% of the vote.  We’ve made a difference before; maybe we can do it again!

We’d like to get Aftyn $7,500 in Balloon Juice bucks by this Wednesday – when early voting starts!

Right now is when the $ can do the most good!

Who doesn’t need insurance?

Would it be great to have one more Democratic vote in the House?

Not only that, but a win here – in TN of all places! – could be our insurance policy if they can pressure one of the 4 Republicans to remove their signature from the Epstein discharge petition.

It’s one thing to be pressured when you are the ONE VOTE that could make or break it.  There’s a lot less pressure if they have to get TWO OF YOU to fold.

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I Have Three Questions

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ONE

I have never paid attention to Polymarket – wondering if any of you follow that and if they have a record of accurate predictions, abysmally wrong predictions, or if they are hit and miss?

Either way, this from Paul Krugman is at least interesting.  Tariff Trouble

Polymarket probability that the Trump administration will win the tariff case

Auto Draft 141

There’s a lot more to the post, but I’ll just include his closing.

The potential for Trump to declare faux national threats is why I am uncomfortable with the Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s IEEPA tariffs on the basis of the constitutional right to levy taxes. With a president as unscrupulous as Trump, we need a precedent against imposing tariffs on the basis of obviously false claims of national emergency.

Nevertheless, let’s hope that Trump will soon be handed a major humiliation on his tariffs by the Supreme Court. Regardless of the grounds upon which you object, these tariffs are bad for Americans and bad for the rest of the world. Moreover, the politics and optics are important. Like strongmen in other countries, Trump is trying to consolidate autocratic power. Every defeat he suffers helps undermine the “resistance is futile” mentality that is an essential part of such consolidations.

So if Trump does take a big L here, I will break out the (domestic) champagne.

TWO

I loved this suggestion about messaging content from Balafon earlier this week:

We would like to continue to keep health care affordable and to provide food to people, but Republicans are keeping the government shut down to avoid releasing the Epstein files.

Do you guys think that’s as good a message as I do?

THREE

Suzanne suggested that we make a graphic with that message and share it all over social media.

f you think it’s a good idea, I would love for us to see mockups from several of our talented BJ peeps.

What do you guys think?

Open thread.

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It’s Up To Us Now (as it always is!)

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Big wins!

Wouldn’t it be nice if we could bask in our victories and take a nice, long rest?  Sign me up for that!

But it’s up to us now.  Just as it was last week, and just as it will be next week. And next year.   It’s up to us.

Marc Elias, Democracy Docket

In my 35 years as an election lawyer, I’ve seen good election nights and bad ones. Last night was a very good one — for both Democrats and democracy. Democrats won everything, everywhere, all at once.

They captured two governorships — in New Jersey and Virginia — in commanding fashion. They won every statewide race in Virginia and gained 13 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates.

In Pennsylvania, three Democrats facing retention elections on the state Supreme Court easily prevailed, solidifying a pro-voting majority on the court for the foreseeable future. In New York City, not only did the Democratic nominee win, but the Republican candidate came in a distant third with less than 10% of the vote.

In Georgia, two Democrats flipped seats on the statewide Public Service Commission — marking the first statewide Democratic victory in a non-federal race in nearly two decades. In Mississippi, Democrats broke the Republican supermajority in the state legislature.

On the democracy front, the wins were even bigger. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting ballot measure [Prop 50] passed by nearly 30 points. Meanwhile, Republicans’ effort to use the referendum process to impose voter ID in Maine failed by a similar margin.

In short:

  • Democrats won every key race
  • They did so with high turnout
  • Republicans cannot claim that their voters stayed home

In Virginia and New Jersey, over half the people said Trump had an impact on their voting.  I believe the actual numbers were 52% and 53%.  As I recall, the breakdown within those percentages was 15% and 17% voting FOR TRUMP, and all the rest were using the votes to make a statement AGAINST TRUMP.

That’s all good news!

What comes next, after our big wins on Tuesday?

Marc Elias, again:

History has taught us that this is precisely when Donald Trump is most dangerous — and when Republicans turn to voter suppression, election subversion and worse. With the 2026 midterm elections less than a year away, Trump is already plotting his next moves.

Here’s what Marc Elias believes we all need to prepare for:

  1. Republicans will falsely claim they lost because of fraud.
  2. Trump will try to ban several popular methods of voting.
  3. Republicans will further exploit the levers of federal power.
  4. Trump will claim the power to count ballots, tabulate results and certify elections.
  5. Extreme Republican gerrymandering will accelerate.
  6. Republicans will ask courts to legitimize their actions.
  7. Political prosecutions will increase.
  8. The legacy media will fail us.

I tried to find at least one of those 8 that I could disagree with.  Tried, and failed.

On Balloon Juice, we always take a break from political fundraising between Thanksgiving and the end of January, and that will be true again this year.

Trump may be plotting his next moves – he and his minions most certainly are – but we are also plotting ours!

So we won’t be fundraising, but we will be reporting on our efforts in 2025, and talking about some of our plans for political fundraising in 2026.

I, for one, and thrilled that we get to go into what will be a period of rest (except for planning!) with these huge victories under our belts and with the wind at our back.

As always, win or lose, I would always rather be us than them.

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Speaking of Inspirational Videos

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I love this headline from Simon Rosenberg:

Democrats Rally Across The Country As Sad, Sundowning And Deeply Unpopular Donald Stays Home

That’s a great description of the TACO guy and I think I’m gonna use that one for awhile.

Sad, sundowning, deeply unpopular Donald!

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On The Road – ema – Under the Boardwalk

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ema

What is worth a long, pleasantly perfumed, subway ride all the way to the last stop? A visit to Coney Island (10:46) of course! Getting there is very easy. Just hop on the subway (D, F, N, Q) and ride all the way to the end of the line.

As you exit the Coney Island – Stillwell Ave. station you will notice the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dogs place, at its original location. Grab a quick bite if you’re feeling a bit peckish then walk a couple of blocks to the famous Coney Island Boardwalk. You can admire the view from the 1,000-foot Steeplechase Pier, or just stroll up and down the boardwalk and people-watch.

If you are the adventurous type, the Coney Island Luna Park, the largest amusement park in the city, is right there for you.

After a bit of a thrill, take a nice walk on the beach, and let the whoosh of the Atlantic Ocean waves relax you. Collect a few seashells, dip your tootsies in the water, then head right across the boardwalk for a new adventure. The enchanted creatures at the NY Aquarium are waiting to delight you. Stay tuned to meet some of them in an upcoming OTR.

On The Road - ema - Under the Boardwalk 9

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