Everything was going according to plan- Clark is proving to be a babbling idiot and keeps getting caught in lies, the Democrats are too stupid to actually nominate someone electable like Lieberman or Gephardt, and the rest of the field, other thanJohn Kerry, are distant memories. You are leading Howard- and it looks like you are well on your way to the nomination. If you would just please STFU for a few months, everything will be going precisely according to Karl Rove’s plan. As Dodd Harris notes:
Howard Dean has blown a fuse. There’s no other explanation for the fact that he “told a Tallahassee audience today that southerners have to quit basing their votes on ‘race, guns, God and gays.'” Dean, widely described as extremely intelligent, says he is trying to “reassemble a coalition of conservative southern voters like President Franklin Roosevelt had.”
Dean needs to just be quiet for a few more months until he has the nomination, and then he can say whatever he wants- in fact, I beg him to talk whenever and wherever.
Dodd
And, just to make things even more chaotic, Wesley actually said something non-stupid today:
“Democratic presidential contender Wesley Clark said on Thursday the United States should resist pressure for an early exit in Iraq.”
He returned to his usual form almost immediately by all but expressly insisting that we turn the job over to the U.N., but at least he’s not *totally* deranged.
I, like you, just hope Howie can keep a lid on it until he’s got a lock. A 45+ state Electoral College landslide would provide ample coattails for a filibuster-proof majority. Of course, if he gets the nomination and then loses it, the Democrats will just try and find a court somewhere to let them change the rules and replace him.
Hey! Wait a second….
<Conspiracy Theory>
It’s just occured to me that that may in fact have been their strategy all along. They know they can’t reasonably expect to win, so they’re playing a deeper game altogether: Get Dean nominated and wait for him to blow a gasket. They then try to replace him through the courts and, of course, the Supreme Court will say no. Then, when Bush wins, as he inevitably will, they can go on nursing their beloved ballot counting grievances and deny his legitimacy by blaming it on the SupCt and calling him “selected, not elected” for another four years.
It’s brilliant! And, you know, strangely compelling.
</Conspiracy Theory>
drew
“race, guns, God and gays” what other big conservative talking points are there? Tax cuts. That’s pretty much it
Andrew Lazarus
I believe Clark and Dean have identical position on what to do in Iraq now. Kucinich, Sharpton, and Mosely Braun want to get out now, representing perhaps 5% total of the Democratic vote.
Next time, spout a conspiracy theory that makes sense?! And to think, people are surprised that liberals hate Bush. Why, after his acolytes say such nice things about us.
S-Train
Lieberman or Gephardt, UGH! That’s like dipping a brown crayon into warm water and calling it hot chocolate. Jimmy Carter had more fire…
Andrew Lazarus
S-Train has another good point. Just because they would make a good second choice for potentially-disaffected Bush leaners like you doesn’t make Gephardt and Lieberman more “electable”. It just makes them more palatable to the Republican half of the country.
Lieberman’s campaign in particular is so quiet I don’t think he could be elected dogcatcher with it. I certainly don’t see it picking up Republican defectors.
greg
I hate to say this because I’m still leaning towards Bush and I’m no fan of the Dems, but i did the Electoral College thing over at Political State Report and I kinda gave the benefit of the doubt to either Dean, Edwards, or Clark, and somehow i came out with the Dem winning.
Ricky
Greg,
Which of the 30 states that Bush won in ’00 do you have him losing in ’04?
Andrew Lazarus
I think the best chances for Dem pickups are WV (sorry John), NH, NV, LA, AZ, and CO, probably in that order. Also AR if and only if Clark is on the ticket.
greg
Ricky,
CO and Ohio.
PA is now out of the question because since Street go re-elected Mayor of Philly, if PA is even close around 6:00 on election night, you’ll see another one of those 102% turnout deals in highly Democratic parts of the city (which mean almost the entire city) like you did in 2000.
(and I’m still getting “page is not available” when i try to go to your site or Caruso’s. I guess it’s my computer)
greg
And as far as my last post, keep in mind i kinda gave any state to the Dem that i thought was gonna be close or a toss-up.
Mike the Analyst
Greg,
You may want to consider this report from the Pew Research outlining that more people identify with GOP vs Dem in many swing states http://www.newsday.com/news/politics/wire/sns-ap-republican-gains-glance,0,3848726.story?coll=sns-ap-politics-headlines
including, from states Gore won:
Iowa (swing of 12 pct pts from GOP to DEM)
Michigan +9
Minnesota +8
New Mexico +6
Wisconsin +5
Pennsylvania +4
while in close Bush states, party identification towards the GOP also increased…
Arkansas +15
W.Virginia +9
Tennessee +7
Florida +6 !!!!
Moe Lane
Say what you like about Kos, but that electoral map thingy he has is addictive. :)
What? My point? Running the numbers… oof. I can see why Dean started talking about reaching out to Southerners: if the Democrats don’t, they’ll have effectively written off half the numbers Bush needs to win next year. If Mike’s numbers accurately reflect state shifts next year, we’re looking at 287 GOP EVs and 251 Dem EVs.
OK, based on this – which is a horrible WAG, agreed – let’s say that IA, LA, MI, MN, OH, PA, WI & WV remain in play: 243/196. Assuming PA & OH either go the way they did in 2000 (or flip-flop): Bush would need only one state from the remaining six (except for WV) to go over the top. The Democrats will need them -all- (except for WV if OH is Republican and PA is Democratic). If WV and PA goes Republican and OH goes Democratic, it goes to the House… and Bush probably wins anyway.
Half-assed prediction: watch for heavy GOP activity in LA and the Great Lakes states.
Dodd
Andrew L: “Just because they would make a good second choice for potentially-disaffected Bush leaners like you doesn’t make Gephardt and Lieberman more “electable”. It just makes them more palatable to the Republican half of the country.”
Did you read what you write?!? A Democrat who is “more palatable to the Republican half of the country” *isn’t* more “electable”?!? Then what exactly does that word mean in Bizarro World? In our Universe, a member of one party who can attract significant numbers of votes from the other party is the Platonic ideal of “electable.” Especially when running against an incumbent of that party.
As for my earlier post – you know, the one in which I said “such nice things” about you and, apparently, hurt your feelings? – well, I apologize. I will never call you brillaint again. Not even in jest.
Moe Lane
“In our Universe, a member of one party who can attract significant numbers of votes from the other party is the Platonic ideal of “electable.””
Only when that candidate can rely upon his own base; it would seem suggestive that Gephardt and Lieberman apparently don’t qualify, no?
Dodd
So I am to believe that y’all think *only* Republicans like these two? Or is it that you think that, if one of them wins the nomination, they won’t be able to rely on Democrat votes in the general? A.L. makes the error of assuming that if a particular Dem is unpalatable to *him*, he must be unpalatable to all Democrats. But he’s rather a bit to the left of the ordinary, everyday Democrat. Gephardt isn’t – and Lieberman is arguably to the right of the run-of-the-mill Dem (though not by much). That, I imagine, is why A.L. dislikes them so.
triticale
Regarding Wisconsin as a swing state, it is swinging pretty quickly. Governor Diamond Jim is pissing people off enough that the Democrats have lost a State Assembly race which should have been a lock. Between that race and the recall of a State Senator who was too moderate of a Democrat, the gambling bosses and teacher’s unions who own the governor have blown close to a million dollars of their warchest.
I also have the expectation that if the DNC tries buying votes in Milwaukee again, this time it will get national attention.
Andrew Lazarus
OK, guys, quick, dump George Bush for Olympia Snowe (or McCain). They’re closer to the center and much more popular with Democrats than Bush.
See how silly this is? The truth is that the number of centrist voters G. and L. pick up against Bush MAY be LESS than the number of occasional and new voters brought in by Dean (who seems to have much more excitement going in these groups) combined with fools who cast protest votes for Nader. I even think that Dean is more likely to get defections for voters who usually go Republican, either fiscal conservatives or if Iraq continues to be mismanaged. But most of YOU guys aren’t going to vote for Lieberman over Bush. You just want the ego boost of thinking BOTH parties favor policies pretty much like yours.
The axiom that you just slide your game piece over to the center the correct amount and win is not true. Lieberman’s campaign has excited absolutely no one anywhere in the spectrum. He isn’t electable to any national post.
Having said that, if by any fluke Gephardt (possible) or Lieberman (not possible) get the nomination, I would work for them very hard. But my analysis of their chances is very, very different.
Emperor Misha I
Keep dreaming, Andrew.
If you seriously, honestly think that Dean can get anywhere without courting the Southern vote, then you’re delusional.
And the first reaction I got when I read Dean’s comments aloud to a Southerner (a life-long registered Democrat, no less) was: “Is he trying to get himself killed?”
And he wasn’t kidding.
Kimmitt
Seriously, you fascist buttpong — are you physically capable of referring to a Presidential candidate other than Dear Leader without discussing his/her assassination?
Andrew Lazarus
Misha, obviously if Dean were to carry a Southern state, his task would be easier. But it’s not necessary. Take Gore’s 2000 states and add either AZ or (WV and NV). (Other combinations work too.)
How many Southern states did Lincoln carry?
Emperor Misha I
“Seriously, you fascist buttpong — are you physically capable of referring to a Presidential candidate other than Dear Leader without discussing his/her assassination?”
Having reading comprehension problems again, are we?
I said nothing of the sort.
Andrew: Good point, but that’s assuming that Dean actually CAN carry all of Gore’s states. He might, I don’t have a crystal ball, but it’s still a “risky scheme” in the extreme to gamble on it, if you ask me.
Anyways. Stereotyping everybody below the Mason-Dixon Line the way Dean did, TWICE, isn’t exactly the way to win hearts and minds.
I understand your reluctance to “pull towards the middle”, Andrew, as a matter of fact I believe that I understand it better than most, even though I’m on the opposite side of the aisle from you, politically speaking. I’d love to see Waffleya start acting like a conservative for a change, but I’m gradually having to face the harsh reality of him having to pander to some extent in order to win, even though I hate every second of it.
After all, as far as I’m concerned, having a RINO like Shrub in office, outrageous as it is to me, is still better than being encumbered by a commie bastard like Dean.
If the Left really wants to win in ’04, they could do a whole lot worse than to start coming to the same realization vis-a-vis Dean, because, as it stands, Karl Rove is absolutely right. Having Dean win the Dem Primary is the best thing that could possibly happen, from a Republican point of view.
Dodd
I would seriously consider voting for Lieberman. I’ve said so many times. The only thing that concerns me about him, in the final analysis is the kinds of judges he would appoint. If he could make me comfortable on that score, I’d be only too happy to vote for him in the general. Bush’s spending, among other things, drives me nuts.
The problem is, the very things that make Lieberman palatable to conservatives like me are what make the left-wingers who are driving the Dem Primary bus call him a “DINO” and ensure he’ll never get the nomination. If you all think Dean can win more “GOP” votes than Bush can “Democrat” ones, you’re fooling yourself. Badly. But don’t let me stop you, I want a filubuster-proof majority.
[In fairness, I have to admit that I despise Gephardt and I would sooner vote for Nader than him. Lieberman has a few dump-his-beliefs-for-political-expediency issues, but Gephardt’s entire career is one long series of those.]
Kimmitt
The number of people who like Lieberman and who would switch their vote from Bush to him could be counted using my fingers and toes. It’s just not relevant.
David Perron
“Fascist buttpong” – what, was “brownshirt fuck” all sold out?
Kimmitt
I don’t like “brownshirt fuck;” I find most American fascists are much more like Mussolini or Franco’s supporters than the German variant on fascism.
In addition, Misha is many things, but he is not particularly moronic.
In short, it’s an accuracy thing.
David Perron
Accuracy. See, I never would have guessed that it was the quest for accuracy that begat your phrasing.
Kimmitt
I would like to take a moment to acknowledge the magnificence of that understatement. Very, very droll.
David Perron
Assuming that wasn’t a backhanded insult, thanks. Any successful attempts at humor on my part, though, are more a matter of luck (or even random chance) than skill.
Kimmitt
Not an insult at all; genuine appreciation. It’s good to see some good old-fashioned wit around here.