Unlike the Bush Administration (as you weaselly asserted the other day), here is an administration who really is afraid of democracy:
Chinese military officers said today that Taiwan’s leadership had pushed the island toward the “abyss of war” with its independence drive, making clear that China would consider a popular vote on Taiwan’s political status as cause for war.
I hope that now you understand the distinction.
Kimmitt
Okay, I hate to be a China apologist (and I really do), but let’s look at this from their terms.
It is China’s stated policy that the island of Taiwan is a Chinese island which is not currently under the de facto control of the Chinese government. It’s a weird situation, but essentially what the Chinese government is saying is, “Don’t vote to secede, or we’ll conquer you like the North did the South in 1860.”
Are the situations analogous? No — Taiwan is a far freer place than the PRC, and its de facto independence has gone on long enough that it would be nearly impossible to integrate. (Of course, we said the same thing about Hong Kong . . . hell, I don’t know.) And there is no question that the Chinese Communist Party is wary of democratic forms of government at best. But China is crazy complicated, and I would have a hard time drawing any conclusion from any given act.
Dean
You know, Germans WERE being mistreated in the Sudetenland and in the Danzig corridor. And the stripping of a proud nation of vast swathes of territory, including of groups of its own citizens, really IS a rather complicated issue.
Who are we to question what they are doing? Are we really prepared to risk a confrontation over a people far away, whose name we cannot pronounce?
Besides, we must always remember THEIR point of view. Our own? Well, that’s a tad bit more open to negotiation—rather supercilious and arrogant to presume that they should look at our side, innit?
Kimmitt
I’m gonna go ahead and invoke Godwin’s Law on this one.
Moe Lane
: blink :
: blink :
Yeah, that was a pretty clear Godwinization. I’m all for backing Taiwan and guaranteeing its de facto independence, but Kimmitt’s right about it being crazy complicated – and it’s not exactly like the Sudetenland situation, either.
tom scott
I just returned from Taiwan about 12 days ago. The campaigning has commenced in preparation for the March elections. This sabre rattling always occurs around election time. This time however, the referendum adds a bit more seriousness. Also add in talk about changing the name of Taiwan-which reneges on one of President Chen’s five noes-and things are a bit more tense. The ethnicity of Chen’s DPP and the opposing Kuomintang (KMT) also has some effect. The DPP is primarily Taiwanese while the KMT is mostly Chinese. Until the last election Taiwan had been governed by the KMT since the arrival of Chiang Kai Shek in the 1949. The demographics of Taiwan is about 84% Taiwanese and 14% Chinese. link Many Taiwanese consider the Chinese as invaders and do not think of themselves as Chinese. This drives some of the sentiment for independence. In some areas the resentment of the Chinese is quite strong. link I’ve heard of incidents in which Taiwanese taxi drivers will expel passengers that speak Mandarin rather then the Taiwanese dialect. Feelings run high in some areas.
So, much of this is driven by Taiwanese nationalism and resentment of Chinese. This is expressed in desire for independence. This infuriates the mainland Chinese and the threats begin which is an attempt to influence the elections.
I’ve tried to be objective here-all my in-laws are KMT-and be comprehensive without being verbose.
P.S. I don’t want to leave the impression that the Taiwanese and Chinese on Taiwan are bitter enemies. They are not. There are however, strong adherents to each party.
tom scott
I forgot to add a link to the current Taipei Times which has 3 stories surrounding this topic.
link
The top 3 articles apply.
M. Scott Eiland
Den Beste has a good explanation of why China has basically no chance of pulling off a successful invasion of Taiwan. The PRC could nuke Taiwan–at the risk of retaliation from the US or (possibly) Taiwan itself–but the result of an attempted conventional invasion would be failure and a very large pile of dead Chinese soldiers.
Jon H
“The PRC could nuke Taiwan–at the risk of retaliation from the US”
Never happen. No free nation has ever declared war on a Wal-Mart supplier.
“or (possibly) Taiwan itself–but the result of an attempted conventional invasion would be failure and a very large pile of dead Chinese soldiers.”
Like they care.
Sigivald
Jon: They’d care if it made the People’s Army sufficiently annoyed with the Party Leadership. And, there’s always the question of whether or not the Party could survive such a failure at all.
Dean: Apart from the Godwin factor, what does any of that have to do with Taiwan? The ethnic-Chinese in Taiwan aren’t being mistreated, they’re running the place, and Taiwan’s “historical connection” to China is much more dubious than that of the Sudeten to Germany. (What parts of China, let alone vast ones, were stripped of their nationality and people by whom, that are not already back in Chinese hands?)
More importantly, why should we care what a bunch of Communist thugs (mind you, I’m referring to the government, not to the people) think, apart from how it materially affects affairs with them? It’s not like the view of thugs on things that might affect their thuggery and power have any moral weight.