Have you ever seen a little kid play hide-and-go-seek?
Children don’t have a very good perspective on themselves and their relationship to the rest of the world, so they can do and say some pretty funny things. For example, they might ‘hide’ themselves behind a telephone pole, or a tree, and believe that because their eyes are blocked and they can’t see anything, no one else can see them. The rest of us, however, see their shoulders, arms, and legs, and know exactly what is going on.
Via Dan Drezner, I am beginning to think this is what is going on with the current administration and Congress:
Administration officials say the improved fiscal picture suggests the president is on track to deliver more quickly on a campaign promise to cut the annual deficit in half as a share of the total U.S. economy, to 2.3% of gross domestic product. (By comparison, last year’s $412 billion deficit was 3.6% of GDP.) Private analysts don’t put much stock in that promise, however; even if Mr. Bush claims victory, the nation still faces long-term deficit problems. Overall federal spending is increasing, including for war costs. More broadly, spiraling health-care costs for Medicare and Medicaid programs, including a prescription-drug benefit for seniors starting next year and a wave of baby-boomer retirements after 2008, will drive federal deficits to unsustainable sizes….
“With the president’s focus on spending discipline, we are seeing positive signs for the American economy, and for the federal government’s balance sheet,” Budget Director Joshua Bolten said in a statement.
I see you there behind the tree, Mr. Bolten.
…Bolten’s comment was so absurd that I was tempted to bang the computer and yell “Spin better!!”
Finding out that the annual budget deficit is 20% smaller than previously should be manna from heaven for the administration. And there’s an excellent line for the explanation — the administration’s policies have fostered faster-than expected economic growth which has increased tax revenues. So if I were working for the administration, I’d say, “With the president’s focus on growing the economy, we’re seeing an improved balance sheet for the government.” That’s spin in the best sense — accentuating your positive attibutes.
What I wouldn’t mention is “the president’s focus on spending discipline,” which brings up two unformortable facts: a) this administration has no spending discipline; and b) combine that with a Congress that loves to spend as well and you’ve got widening deficits for some time.
The words “president’s focus on spending discipline” should never be uttered by anyone associated with this administration, even if the deficit isn’t half as bad as it was projected. This isn’t a matter of bad spin. Ask any lawyer- you can’t ‘spin away’ a dead body. This is about an utter inability to set realistic spending priorities and follow them.
KC
Even this is phony. The administration projects a large deficit early on, later OMB “finds” that this deficit is actually smaller than expected. The president then cries, “look how good the I’m doing! My taxcuts have expanded revenues and I’ve cut spending.” It’s just a smoke screen. This is from the bottom of a Feb. 2, 2004 Washington Post story that covers the scheme:
The White House’s $521 billion deficit forecast for 2004 is considerably higher than the $477 billion deficit projected by CBO, but Bush’s $237 billion deficit for 2009 is mostly consistent with CBO’s $239 billion forecast for that year. A White House official dismissed the discrepancy, saying, “It’s not at all unusual for projections to be different.”
But budget aides in both parties noted that the higher number makes it easier to say the deficit would be cut in half in five years. A higher deficit forecast now could also help Bush show progress when his budget office delivers its updated projection in July, congressional aides said.
And don’t forget, the President’s budget doesn’t include supplemental war funds (among other expenses) or the cost of extending taxcuts, etc., and always uses the social security surplus to offset higher numbers. In my mind, this adminstration, more than any other in my lifetime, has made budget fiction an art.
Kimmitt
Behold! The CBO has repealed the Business Cycle!
Fledemaus
Not to mention that military spending in Iraq is not included in annual budget projections, that can easily tack on another $100B minimum.
Look, JC the GOP either has to hold to their small government mantra or just surrender Congress to the Dems so that we can fix this mess.
The gravy train is approaching its last stop.