TPM links to the Oregon exit polls:
The Oregon exit polls lend a bit more weight to the theory that Barack Obama’s real problem is more with Appalachia than it is with working class whites in general, as the Hillary campaign has repeatedly suggested.
In Kentucky yesterday, Hillary slaughtered Obama among these voters. But the Oregon exits show a different story.
Obama beat Hillary by sizable margins among all ages of white voters except those 60 and older. And he beat Hillary among voters with no college degree, too — and since the state is overwhelmingly white, these voters are the ones he’s supposed to have trouble with.
Late Update: The exits also show that Obama also beat Hillary by seven points among voters making less than $50,000 (though she won among voters making between $15,000 and $30,000).
What’s more, Obama also won among voters from a household with a union member. I’ve edited the above to make that point.
One point that is often not made enough is that many Democrats in WV and Kentucky and elsewhere are often times people are Democrats simply because it is the only game in town. One of the things that kept me reflexively a Republican is that in WV, pretty much the entire state was run by Democrats at every level.
Until recently, in WV, if you wanted to vote in a primary that mattered, you had to be a Democrat. My mother, who has voted Republican in pretty much every Presidential election in my lifetime, at least as far back as to Ford in 76 (I am not sure about Nixon, but I do not see her as McGovern voter), is a registered Democrat and has been all her life (she grew up in Maryland, moved to WV in the late 60’s with my dad, who was from Ohio). As a registered Republican in WV until very, very recently, quite often there simply was NO CANDIDATE to vote for- if you win the Democratic primary, you have won the race. The only credible challenger to Alan Mollohan for years was a libertarian named Richard Kerr, a local Doctor.
This is something else to keep in mind when you hear all these exit polls in Appalachia in which Democrats state they will not vote for Obama or Hillary in the fall- it isn’t because they necessarily hate Hillary or Barack, it is because for all intents and purposes they are Republicans. Ticket-splitting is alive and well here in rural states.
*** Update ***
For example, McDowell County here in WV:
The Democrats are expected to rule Tuesday in McDowell County.
There are no Republican candidates competing in Tuesday’s primary contest, according to County Clerk Don Hicks. However, several Democrats are competing against Democrats for their party’s nomination. Without Republican opposition, the winners in Tuesday’s primary will most likely be unopposed during the general election in November.
“Whenever you have just Democrats running with no Republican opposition, normally in the primary that is pretty much it,” Hicks said. “Unless there is a write-in candidate.”
It went to Hillary 72-22.
Zifnab
LIES! Kentucky and West Virginia are the proof wingnuts need to convince themselves that Obama will be trounced in the fall and McCain will ride a tide wave of GOP support back into 2002-redux. You’re just angry because working, white lower class voters aren’t being fooled by Obama’s Hitler-esque appeal.
Bob K.
Could someone please tell me how any lower-income person could be ignorant enough to believe he or she would be truly represented (hell, even acknowledged other than through cynical b.s. pandering) by a privleged white politico who’s family made over $100 million in less than a decade?
Crusty Dem
A nice retort to the dimwitted distortion at talkleft from the Big Tubby Douchebag and his “But, but, but Hillary is the best!!”. As if the racist Appalachians would all vote for Hillary in the fall (of course it’s a moot point, now), they’re not really democrats, idiot!
qwerty42
That used to be a common state of affairs in a lot of places, especially in the old “solid south”. From TPM, I see the UMWA, which had backed Edwards, has endorsed Obama.
Jake
I saw some of the mediots finally picking up on this idea this morning. Hopefully the stupid will come to an end, but mostly I suspect it’s going to be replaced by something else.
Billy K
Blahblahblah… HIllary has won more votes!
dave
Let’s not forget that the second biggest attraction in Kentucky, after the Derby, is the Creation Museum (just a short drive from Cincinnati, if you’re interested), where you can enjoy dioramas of cavemen riding domesticated, saddled dinosaurs. Why yes, of course, they deserve the biggest voice in picking our Democratic presidential nominee…
Dreggas
in three words:
She’s Not Black.
Phoenix Woman
John, you should check out Tom Schaller’s Whistling Past Dixie. He essentially is saying what you’re saying WRT Appalachian white voters. (One thing he points out is how black Southern voters, who culturally are every bit as conservative as their white Southern counterparts, do not fall prey to the GOP’s waving around gay-marriage bans and the like to con them into voting GOP. They vote Democratic and their white neighbors vote Republican.)
By the way: Gerry Ferraro — whose first big political claim to fame was as a opponent of busing — said something stupid again:
Mary
Yeah, those exit polls do really weaken the case that the only whites who support Obama are the well-off and well-educated. But they still suggest that Clinton did slightly better with the least educated and those with the lowest income. In addition to the preference for Clinton among those earning between 15-30K, she did better among those with no college experience.
Obama carried “no college degree” by 52% to 48% (page 1 of the results), but on page 2, finer slices showed Clinton carrying high school graduates with no college by 53% to 47%. (They found 3% of the population had only some high school, but didn’t slice up those numbers by candidate.)
And on page 3, they sliced things up differently again, showing Clinton with 53% of those with no college education to Obama’s 46%, with him carrying those with at least some college education by 62% to 38%. Oregon is a well-educated state, too, with only 21% of those surveyed without any college education at all.
But that’s not to argue that Obama can’t carry more of these poorer, non-college educated Democrats across the country in the election. Clinton’s lead among this group exists, but it’s not a huge lead, and I think many of them are ready to support the Democratic nominee. I think he has the time to reach out to the white working class across the country and make some real gains, although I expect Appalachia and its small-c conservatism to be pretty damn difficult to reach.
Punchy
Amended.
Jen
Well, there goes my plan to offer her the consolation prize of President of Appalachia…
Wilfred
I’ll take a shot. For one thing, there no longer exists a culture of the working-class, one that would ensure a sense of its own values, needs and historical position. The absolute triumph of the bourgeoisie has been to inculcate its own (supposed) values into the working class, whose members then reflect it back as if they were their own. An astute politician taps into it the same way that a same way that a good advertising person does – hell, they put it there.
One of the most significant, and successful, political tasks of the bourgeoisie was to equate real working class politics Populism,for example, with corruption, evil and bad manners – Huey Long Syndrome. Who was the last American politician of national stature to retain any semblance of working class origin or culture?
The working class has been conditioned to think that anyone of their own class must be corrupt. Similarly, class struggle, which is what the working class should be participating in, has become synonymous with supporting a middle-class politician who throws back a shot and beer once in a while. You don’t have to be that clever to exploit such conditions, just more shameless than your competitors.
TR
MSNBC actually had a good point on this — they noted that 33% of white Democrats in the state said they would vote for McCain if Obama were the nominee, and then showed that this was almost exactly how many white Democrats in the state voted for Bush the last time around.
Krista
Here now, Dreggas, you’re painting a pretty broad picture. I really don’t think that you can ascribe racism to all low-income voters. (That’s probably not want you meant to say, but it is how it came across.) There are some low-income voters who are well-educated, but just underemployed. Low-income is a factor, but I think that education level (and the education level of that individual’s parents) plays a larger part in this.
Krista
And in regards to my comment above, I don’t think it’s all about education either. There is such a combination of factors, all differing, that would make someone place that much importance on race.
I hope we can get to the day where someone points out that the Presidential candidate is a certain race (or a female), and everybody goes, “um…and your point is?”
Leo
So I saw Jim Webb’s interview this morning where he talked about the shared interests of blacks and poor whites in this country (i.e., I suppose, the need for progams that combat cyclical poverty).
Now what immediately leaps to my mind when I hear this is the old idea of transitioning from race-based affirmative action to class-based affirmative action. I think I read somewhere that an Obama adviser said he would never consider such a policy, but I’m curious whether he should consider it.
So my questions for you all:
1. Is this idea at all within the realm of good policy, or is it just a bullshit “colorblind” red herring?
2. Is this idea good politics, or is the anti-government feeling so strong poor white communities that they would regard such a measure as an offensive “hand out”? Would Obama be able to retain the black community if he came out in support of such a measure?
It strikes me that, if such an approach were good policy and passable short-term politics, it would be the sort of unifying stroke that could solidify a progressive majority in this country for a generation or more.
Scrutinizer
What you see in Appalachia today is a reflection of the South up until Nixon’s Southern Strategy. No one in the South registered Republican—that fuckin’ Lincoln was a Republican, and he unconstitutionally invaded the CSA, and did that thing with the slaves and all—no one in the South was ever going to register Republican, by God. But no self-respecting white person was going to vote for a liberal, and as for civil rights for colored folk, forget it.
But everyone still registered Democrat, and voted for Republicans in the national elections. After Nixon, it became possible for Republicans to get elected here (Jesse Helms, anyone?), but even before that, Southern Democrats were a different breed from the Northern and Western wings of the Party. Most of the Dixiecrats have lost influence, or switched to the Republican Party, but the old ways hang on in Appalachia.
What has me screaming at the TV currently is the gang on MSNBC acting as if Obama’s losses in KY and WV are indicative of some great weakness in the MUP’s ability to win the general. Obama did the right thing by not campaigning in those states—that would have been wasted effort, since he’s all but clinched the nomination. I reckon the MUP can’t come right out and say “those states don’t count”, but really, they don’t (sorry, John.) Not in the general, and not in the primary.
Billy K
BARACK OBAMA IS BLACK!
Punchy
Well, she finally said IT
Ruh roh. This is fucking insane, honestly.
RampantSexism
I think most people would agree that this is misogyny at it worst.
Incertus
Is he really? I don’t see race. I assume I’m white because I have no problem getting police to show up when I call 911.
wingnuts to iraq
Barack Obama is not Black–He is White Plus. Get it right Billy K
Greg
I agree with the substance of what you are saying. But let’s be REALLY clear: there were no “exit” polls in Oregon. There were PHONE polls, where people were asked if they already voted or planned to vote, but there were no exit polls, as the entire state is mail-in ballots. That does skew the numbers somewhat.
Phoenix Woman
Again, see Tom Schaller’s work.
Southern blacks and whites of similar educational and socioeconomic backgrounds vote totally differently from each other: Blacks vote Democratic, whites vote Republican. Since even the state with the most blacks, Mississippi, still has more whites than blacks, the black Democratic vote is more than cancelled out by the white Republican vote because the blacker the state, the more likely its white voters are to vote Republican, especially in the South.
Think about what that means. (Hint: Googling “Southern Strategy” is a good start.)
fred from chicago
demographic, income, race and gendre are verry similar in oregon and kentucky……in kentucky the inbreeding has gone on un checked for years…..in oregon a much mellower country folk has evolved
Dreggas
I meant that more with regard to KY. However where I grew up in Upstate NY people were pretty damn poor for the most part and despite the fact that dem policies were better than the repukes most of the people where I lived voted for the republican. It was bad if you were a democrat and even worse if you happened to not be lily white. Hell my own grandparents used to spout the crap about black people being black because “they bore the mark of Cain”.
Sorry but my experience with most of the “Poor white working class” has been one of bigotted or outright racist attitudes towards any person of color whether they be AA or Latino because they bought the republican talking point that the only reason they were poor was because of the welfare queens, big cities (purportedly taking their money), democrats in government stealing it from them to give to everyone else and shitty jobs (the good ones went to the “other” people). Hell they cheered bill clinton only because of welfare reform otherwise he was a democrat and therefore bad.
Education plays a role no doubt but these are people who remained and remain, to this day, bigotted and ignorant.
b-psycho
In this regard, the abnormally long primary season has been rather…illuminating. How we still manage as a single country with such huge regional divides puzzles me at times.
Wilfred
It’s good politics to me because it privileges class consciousness over all the other consciousnesses promoted by the bourgeoisie to deflect attention from the only one that matters. Differentiations based on race, religion and ethnicity are the building blocks of totalitarian democracy. Anything that undermines them is good policy for its victims.
This is Gramsci 101. The fact that poor whites, or anyone else for that matter, would consider government assistance ‘an offensive hand out’ in light of how the government spends its money on bailing out banks is a perfect example bourgeoisie hegemonic processes.
Carnacki
John, you’re forgetting that according to some front pagers at Dkos all of us in Appalachia are racists who won’t vote for Obama, even those of us who did and campaigned for him too. Quit pointing out details that show otherwise. It’s hurting their feelings.
Incertus
I expect that come May 31, the Rules Committee will modify the punishment, cut their delegation in half, and the states will be happy enough with it that they’ll tell Hillary to drop it now.
DJDevvyDev
Or, to steal one from Mel Brooks:
THE SHERIFF IS A N—–!
Funny, isn’t the election beginning to look like a re-run of Blazing Saddles?
Archer
If Hillary can get the racist vote, Obama can get the sexist vote. He should take Michelle down to West Virginia and smack her around. She can cry and say she got him mad and she deserved it. That should get back most of the votes.
Jeff
One question I have about the exit polls is whether any of these pollsters asked the Hillary voters who they would vote for if she were the nominee. We have not gotten the statistics on that, but I am willing to bet a lot of Appalachians would vote for a war hero before some liberal woman.
Leo
I agree with your analysis, Wilfred. I would love for someone to explain to me why its wrong–I’m a fairly well-off white guy, so I will really look like a real ass if I start advocating for wrongheaded changes to affirmative action.
But man, from where I sit now this looks like it would be a political masterstroke. The divide Webb is talking about between poor whites and poor blacks is in many ways the defining characteristic of American politics. Many would argue its why we’ve never had a real left in this country.
1jpb
I saw BTD commenting on these low income folks. I would have responded at TL, but I’m still suspended over there. My question is:
Does this income range include retired folks? BTD was offended because this group included college students with jobs. Presumably he thinks college students shouldn’t count as working folks (as someone who worked mulitple jobs and went to school, I may argue with that.) But, he does seem to consider retired folks with low fixed incomes as acceptable working folks.
I’m not usually openly critical of BTD, but this is really grasping at straws. Is he saying that it’s acceptable to include retired folks, but not college students, in this group of “hard working folks?” I wouldn’t be surprised to see retired folks with a lot more assets than many of those folks in the work force at these lower income levels. And, Medicare probably means that many of these retired folks have better health care than their peers with these low income levels. In my opinion, working college students should be counted as memebers of the hard working class, especially if that group includes retired folks on fixed incomes, which could easily out number the college students in this demographic.
BTD step away from the straws!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Fledermaus
I’m just waiting for Obama to say “Scuse me while I whip this out”
Arguing with signposts
This is an excellent point. In fact, the State of Texas didn’t have a Republican governor for 100 years (1870-ish to 1979). I once voted in a county where the Republican Party didn’t even have a working telephone number!
Southerndemocrat
My folks grew up in Virginia and like many southern states there was not even an active Republican Party for a 100 years. It took a 100 years to break up the uninterrupted rule of Democratic Governors. West Virginia seems to be different for a few reasons. One, they used to have a strong union presence and voted accordingly. Two, West Virginia went Democratic in 1976, 1980, 1988, 1992, and 1996. Dukakis and Carter won the state, even when though they both lost in landslides. I cannot see Obama winning the state but a “safe” Democrat like Hillary or Edwards would almost certainly carry the state against McCain. That is more than you can say about any other Southern state out there.
Rick Taylor
1jpb Says:
Good to see you again. I was wondering, do you have any idea why you were suspended at Talk Left? I followed you when I as reading there; your posts were more substantive than most, and while you were sometimes exasperated, you were always civil. It really floored me when I heard about that.
Adam
The current state of affirmative action jurisprudence is just find, despite what you may have heard: Quotas are not OK; ‘Diversity’ as an overall goal is OK. (I assume we’re talking mostly about college admissions here? Most of the SC cases are about law schools.)
I don’t encourage you to spend any more time in law school classrooms than you have to, but you can take my word for it — if anything, we tend to emphasize things like LSATs (which is what all the plaintiffs in the affirmative action generally complain about) too much in admissions, and things like a diverse student body too little.
Our higher education culture isn’t just about who’s admitted, though that’s what gets litigated — it’s about the kind of environment we provide to a lot of future leaders to learn in and whether that environment is insular or whether it expands their cultural horizons.
khead
No Pubs on the McDowell ballot.
http://www.bdtonline.com/archivesearch/local_story_132212016.html
1jpb
Rick Taylor,
I don’t know why they cut me off at TL.
But, I’m pretty sure that I’ll be reinstated when I ask Jeralyn. I’m giving the HRC folks some “space” for now. I’ll ask Jeralyn to let me back after this nomination finishes up.
Leo
Adam:
Actually I agree with you. I hadn’t thought through this issue clearly enough. (Which is exactly what I was afraid of.) The constitutional jurisprudence is clearly fine. And the actual decision whether or not to pursue affirmative action is not a federal issue.
That really leaves the question as whether there is anything Obama could do on this issue rhetorically. And that’s much less of a big deal.
Carnacki
I’d point out that despite the claim of a frontpager at Dkos …
…that McDowell County also voted for an African American to the state house (over a white woman who had previously held the seat) and an African American as circuit court judge.
While we have more than our share of racists, we’re not all racists in Appalachia despite claims by some to the contrary.
KRK
This was my first thought about the Oregon numbers. Not retired, per se, but older folks. They’re not all of that income group, but a fair portion.
Just Some Fuckhead
Wasn’t that state house elector back in the ’30s?
Digital Amish
I’m not familiar with the goings on in Appalachia. So I rely on my daughter who ended up in the Chattanooga area a few years ago. She put it succinctly when we talked about the primaries last winter. “There’s an awful lot of white trash racist crackers down here.”
rm
John, you just reminded me of the Dinosaur Days, circa 2003, when you and I were commenters on the ur-Kos (a single-person blog with Haloscan) and discussed single-party rule in KY and WV. It’s true.
Digital Amish, one thing I’ve learned from my Chattanooga in-laws is that other white people are “white trash.” The speaker is never white trash, even if the speaker has done the things which mark his subjects as WT.
Arthur J. Weiss
Let’s get our terminology correct by really listening to the information being provided by the media quite clearly: The Oregon poll was not an exit poll (of voters leaving their voting location), it was a telephone poll of people who had mailed in their vote, or said they intended to, done over the weekend. Why? Oregon votes exclusively by mail, so folks, there is no physical place to vote,and if there is no physical place, there are no exits.
Chuck Butcher
I’m not sure what’s wrong with the rest of the nation that vote by mail is soooooooo foreign to them. There are a lot of states backdooring it with absentee ballots. It saves money, time, machines, and gives people time to think while doing it, and it is fair.
Chuck Butcher
There seems to be a magic number that Barack wins: less than 4% black pop and over 14% black pop, the space in between is poison. From history I’ve developed a theory that racism that isn’t historically required developes over economic competition. States with
Les
Okay. How about this? Go there. If you need near D.C, take a road trip there. Explore
Talk to the people. Obtain an understanding of them. Ask them why they feel?
Maybe, there is a far more deeper problems because there has no been any real investment in overhauling the education system.
You want to change this problem. Than invest time in education. Or even go farther, go teach there. Open their minds.
Adam
I dunno, I thought the Philadelphia speech was pretty good. My feeling is that the thing that’s needed is for someone to step up and cut through all the bullshit surrounding the issue, and he did the best job I’ve seen anyone do yet when he gave that speech; though of course no one really paid much attention to that part.