Archives for 2008

Stage 1: Denial. Once the proud front line of the anti-warming fight, pretty much everyone has abandoned this absolutist position except for some guerillas too far gone or out of touch to get the message. What does it mean for Exxon? Business as usual.

Stage 2: We didn’t do it. Sure the glaciers are thinning like Cheney’s hair, but that’s because of the sun. Or maybe volcanoes or just the natural world shifting around all on its own. Some influential thinktanks still hang onto this line, although others have given up trying to come up with a plausible mechanism that doesn’t involve CO2. What does it mean for Exxon? Conveniently, business goes on as usual.

Stage 3: How I learned to stop worrying and love the heat. So what if CO2 is heating the planet? Relax, it’s good for you. Though bold, this tactic contradicts what people can see with their own eyes and makes a laughingstock out of anyone who seriously tries it. It’s a desperation move. What does it mean for Exxon? Year end bonuses, a humanitarian award is named in Exxon’s honor.

Stage 4: Spectering. In this stage denialists acknowledge that CO2-driven warming is a major problem. The real magic at this stage comes in taking “leadership” on the issue away from people who might do some good. First comes the calls for more research, preferably multi-decade studies and climate models that are no good unless they correctly predict every sunny day in Seattle for the next hundred years. Then cut the research budget, shuffle resources away from Earth observation and edit any report that makes it through. When that fails to keep a lid on public opinion, throw together a blue ribbon panel made up of petrobusiness executives and petrolobbyists to come up with some incredibly weak tea proposals. See: late-period George Bush (I and II); John McCain. What does it mean for Exxon? Voluntary guidelines. That’ll show them.

Stage 5: Apathy. At some point most denialists will acknowledge that warming is real, we caused it and maybe we should have done something serious back when solutions were still practical. But gosh, the problem has grown so severe, gasoline over $5 a gallon, stagflated recession, war and a national debt crisis mean that can’t realistically deal with it any more. Oh well, mea culpa. Try to hide your shock when denialists jump to 5 as the other fallback positions become untenable. What does it mean for Exxon? A red-eyed James Inhofe and the thirteen other Senate Republicans will beg Congress to focus on the future and not who sold their country out for a palmful of silver. Majority Leader Feingold will thank Inhofe for his input and vote to rename Capitol urinal pucks ‘Inhofe Cakes.’ Public opinion will waver between hearings and opening a wing at Guantanamo, but the energy crisis will be too severe to do much besides some very stern letters.

And there you have the wisdom of Exxon’s strategy. They don’t have to win, they just have to gum up the works long enough that solutions are no longer practical. Better luck next time, Miami.

The Many Stages Of Climate DenialPost + Comments (131)

Yep, many places sure had a cold winter this year. In case you’re wondering what it means, the answer is not much.

Local, short term changes in the outside environment are called weather. Humans don’t have much influence on weather because our kind of influence builds up slowly and usually averages out across the entire planet. One exception is when we dry out local weather by cutting down forests, but let’s set that aside for now. Climate is the larger-scale, longer term trend. Climate influences a given day’s weather to some degree but much more directly controls, for example, what kind of plants and animals can live in your area, growth/shrinkage of marginal zone glaciers, sea level and so on.

Me: That seems like an easy enough point. I really don’t understand why I have to explain it every time an online wingnut has to shovel his driveway.
H.L. Mencken’s ghost: Never argue with a man whose job depends on not being convinced.
Me. Yeah, fine, but the point has been beaten into the ground. Surely most people would have picked up the distinction up by now.
H.L. Mencken’s ghost: Kid, you’re sharp as a two by four. < floats off to haunt Nedra Pickler*>

The world has seen some extraordinary winter conditions in both hemispheres over the past year: snow in Johannesburg last June and in Baghdad in January, Arctic sea ice returning with a vengeance after a record retreat last summer, paralyzing blizzards in China, and a sharp drop in the globe’s average temperature.

It is no wonder that some scientists, opinion writers, political operatives and other people who challenge warnings about dangerous human-caused global warming have jumped on this as a teachable moment.

Damn you, Mencken.

Look, this doesn’t have to be difficult. If you don’t want to believe loony fringe partisans like George H.W. Bush’s IPCC, check it out for yourself. Most people with a backyard and a reference library can hunt down local phenomena that respond to climate rather than weather. If there is a nearby stream fed by alpine glaciers or snowpack, it will run higher in spring and lower in late summer if snow melts sooner in the year and more precipitation falls as rain. Learn which day of the year local flowering plants bloom and when pollinating insects start to appear. Find out what plants and animals have territories that end just to the south of you or at a slightly lower elevation. Put out a birdfeeder and note when migratory species start appearing. Are there any marginal zone glaciers in your area?** Permafrost? Ask an old fart whether they’ve changed. There is a reason why gardening enthusiasts and climate denialists have non-overlapping Venn circles.

I expect that this will once an for all stop denialists from crying OMFG warming is a h0ax! every time snow gets in the way of a cheetos run. Then again I am a bit slow.

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(*) One of many good reasons to pick on Pickler.
(**) Antarcticans can sit this one out; the East Antarctic Ice Sheet will thaw approximately never.

Weather And ClimatePost + Comments (140)