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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Fundamental belief of white supremacy: white people are presumed innocent, minorities are presumed guilty.

Is trump is trying to break black America over his knee? signs point to ‘yes’.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

I would try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

Republicans choose power over democracy, every day.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

Republicans do not trust women.

In after Baud. Damn.

Second rate reporter says what?

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

… gradually, and then suddenly.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

People are complicated. Love is not.

Hi god, it’s us. Thanks a heap, you’re having a great week and it’s only Thursday!

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

“Until such time as the world ends, we will act as though it intends to spin on.”

This chaos was totally avoidable.

The arc of the moral universe does not bend itself. it is up to us to bend it.

Tide comes in. Tide goes out. You can’t explain that.

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Science & Technology

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You are here: Home / Archives for Science & Technology

Respite: Antimatter To Go Edition

by Tom Levenson|  March 25, 20264:12 pm| 114 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Respite, Science & Technology

I’ve got a ton of rage-inducing stuff in the pipeline which I hope to start putting up here and there soon. But I promised some respite, and I’m a content-generator of my (often deadline-missing) word, so here’s a bit of fun for your Wednesday afternoon.

Humankind has just witnessed its latest never-before achievement. Yesterday a truck hit the road within the CERN campus near Geneva. It was transporting very, VERY carefully a cargo created within that laboratory, Europe’s particle physics research center.

That cargo was antimatter. To be precise, that truck transported a grand total of 92 antiprotons, produced in a facility at CERN known informally as the antimatter factory.

Antimatter is just like the ordinary matter you and I are made of, but for one crucial difference: each of its particles has the opposite charge of its ordinary matter counterpart. An antiproton has a negative charge instead of the positive charge of the protons in the nuclei in every atom in our bodies/the universe, for example. (There are a handful of other reversed properties, but that’s the gist.)

One other thing: matter and its anti- counterpart really, REALLY don’t like each other. If an anti-proton comes into contact with a scrap of ordinary matter, it goes BOOM!—the two particles annihilate.

Respite: Antimatter To Go Edition

So antimatter is hard to make in a world full of the other stuff, and once created (which CERN does by ramming protons into metal targets and then capturing a small fraction of the anti-protons created in the flash of collision energy), is even harder to preserve.

To simplify a lot, the way to hang on to antimatter in this vale of tears is to trap it in such a way that it never comes into contact with its surroundings. Doing so requires extreme cold—four degrees K above absolute zero; as near a complete vacuum as technically achievable; and superconducting magnets to hold the antiprotons in a tight enough grasp to ensure they never strike the sides of the containment vessel.

This is not an easy task in a lab. Now imagine what it would take if an antiproton developed an urge for going.* The need to figure out how to transport antimatter arose because the CERN is an electromagnetically busy place, and some of the experiments researchers hoped to perform with antimatter couldn’t be done except in a much more pristine setting—which is being built in Dusseldorf, Germany, 700 kilometers from Geneva.

So the laboratory’s antimatter folks found themselves in the trucking business. Getting antiprotons to become rolling cargo involved designing a traveling version of the containment technology used in the lab. Today marked the first test of the system. A box truck set off on what accumulated into a half-hour, eight kilometer drive—a careful journey, topping out at forty-two kilometers per hour.

Antimatter is implicated in a range of fundamental questions, among them, why there is so much matter and so little antimatter in our universe (which is a good thing from a wholly selfish point of view; if the Big Bang had generated equal amounts of both forms of matter, as some calculations suggest it could have, then there’d be nothing in our neighborhood but the residue of the vast mutual annihilation of the two species of particles). So there’s a lot riding on the ability first to create a storable stock of antiparticles and then to get it into the right environment for ultra-precise measurement.

A five mile jaunt on a secured right of way is only the beginning. It will be a while yet before you can DoorDash an order of anti-hydrogen with some frites on the side. But it is amazing for all of that. Human beings have managed to reach into the realm previously reserved for action on a cosmological scale—and now the antimatter show has hit the road.

To put this another way: we just witnessed the Winter Olympics. We saw extraordinarily accomplished people do exceptional things. While almost every last person watching will never attempt, much less land, a quad axel or a 1620 rotation on a freestyle jump, it is thrilling to witness, to know it can be done.

Same here, learning of those 92 antiprotons made it out and back safely using machinery that is at the very limit of what humankind knows how to build.

More detail at the source for this post.

*Inevitable soundtrack. Inevitable alternate soundtrack.

Image: Joseph Stevens, Enemies, 1854

Respite: Antimatter To Go EditionPost + Comments (114)

Trumpery Open Thread: Iran Does Not Have Nukes

by Anne Laurie|  March 2, 20266:14 pm| 152 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Rofer on Nuclear Issues

If Trump hadn’t torn up the Iran deal, those 6 American soldiers would still be alive

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— PatriotTakes 🇺🇸 (@patriottakes.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 4:46 PM

Time to say it again!

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— Cheryl Rofer (@cherylrofer.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 7:11 PM

Former front-pager Cheryl Rofer, now posting at Lawyers, Guns & Money:

It’s time to say it again: It’s highly doubtful that the Iranians were pursuing a nuclear weapon. And they certainly don’t have any.

Donald Trump says that (one of the purposes/ the purpose) of his attack on Iran is to make sure they never get a nuclear weapon. He has also tried to look reasonable by saying “All they have to do is say they will not build a nuclear weapon.”

Iran has done that second thing already, by ratifying the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. When North Korea decided to build nuclear weapons, they withdrew from the treaty. Iran has threatened to withdraw, but they haven’t. This is a signal of their intention not to build nuclear weapons.

Trump’s insistence seems more like that of a middle-school boy sitting on another, hollering “Say uncle.” Big strong ayatollahs must come to Trump with tears in their eyes and say it.

Iran had a nuclear weapons program up until 2003 and then gave it up. Iran has said that. Western intelligence services have said that…

All along, there have been factions within Iran that wanted a bomb, mainly in the IRGC. But Ayatollah Khamanei has said several times that nuclear weapons are forbidden by Islam, another expression of that statement Donald Trump says he wants.

I have seen reports that the current negotiators, whose expertise is in real estate, not nuclear issues, may have misunderstood Iran’s recent offers and seemed not to know what the IAEA was. It’s a subject for specialists, which is why specialists were included in the 2014-2015 negotiations.

Iran hasn’t been working toward a bomb. They have played a negotiation based on an understanding that a bomb could be one outcome of their work. The subtlety of that produced the JCPOA. It doesn’t work with a regime whose basic mode of operation is that of gangsters.

what in the world

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— Mike Black (@mikeblack114.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 7:44 PM

this is also true for 90% of the military's understanding of military affairs tbh

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— thinkingbayonet.bsky.social (@thinkingbayonet.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 9:06 PM

Probably not related, but it has been noted today that The World’s Most Dangerous Cranky Grandpa has a new health issue. If the neck rash is shingles, I understand that they are very painful & liable to make victims (more) cranky. How fortunate that Trump has the best medical care available to him!

whoa — this is new. Trump has a significant rash-like injury on his neck today in addition to his disfigured hand
(Saul Loeb/Getty)

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) March 2, 2026 at 12:47 PM

Trumpery Open Thread: Iran Does Not Have NukesPost + Comments (152)

Excellent Read: Mars, Beyotches!

by Anne Laurie|  March 1, 202611:41 pm| 90 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Space

Link here https://t.co/3Is5Q8Q1gI. (I shared this yesterday, but forgot that this site spikes such links)

— Pinboard (@Pinboard) February 27, 2026

So. Many. Moving. Parts!…Maciej Cegłowski, aka Pinboard, at his SubStack Mars for the Rest of Us, with “A Primer on Long-Duration Life Support”:

Life support is the biggest technical obstacle to the human exploration of Mars.

This fact makes people mad, because there are all kinds of other obstacles that are fun to solve (orbital refueling, landing heavy payloads, making rocket fuel out of Martian air), and life support has a fun factor of zero. It is a thankless world of dodgy sensors, failing bearings, and bacteria trying to grow on absolutely everything.

But if we want to get to Mars alive, we need for this stuff to work.

Requirements
An astronaut in space needs 840 grams of oxygen, 2.8 kilos of water, and 1.8 kilos of dried food a day to stay alive. They also appreciate the little touches, like water to wash with (0.7 kg), fresh clothes (1.5 kg per week), wet wipes (0.2 kg/day) and a toilet (1.4 kg for canisters and wipes).

On the output side, each astronaut exhales around a kilo of carbon dioxide and pees out a liter and a half of urine. They also produce a fairly small quantity of feces and menses (though many women opt to medically induce amenorrhea during space flight)…

On shorter missions like Apollo (~12 days) or Shuttle flights (~14 days) it makes sense to pack everything a crew needs with no attempts at recycling. In this paradigm, carbon dioxide can be scrubbed from the cabin air with disposable lithium hydroxide cartridges; everything else is carried along in the space version of a picnic basket.

On longer missions, trying to carry single-use supplies gets unwieldy. A crew of four on a 1,000 day mission to Mars would need 48 tons of consumables, about equal to the mass of the entire spacecraft. And even if mass were unlimited, there simply wouldn’t be enough room to fit everything on board.

So past a threshold of about 30 days, you have to make some attempt at recycling…

Food
Food may be my favorite technical barrier to Mars travel, because everyone assumes it has been solved, or that it is easy to solve, while the people working on it mop the sweat from their brow during the day and try keep the shaking in their hands from rattling the ice cubes in their whisky glass at night.

Astronauts have hated space food ever since the first meat cubes came back uneaten from Project Gemini. Even on the ISS, where fresh foods are often available, getting crews to eat adequately is a struggle. Whether it’s because the stomach senses satiety differently in zero gravity, or because the space station smells like a toilet, crews have historically consumed only 80% of their rations.

On a multiyear mission, such a calorie level would lead to malnutrition and embarrassing deficiency diseases like space scurvy. So we need to come up with ready-to-eat meals that are nutritious, storable for five years without refrigeration, and appetizing enough that a crew can eat them for a thousand days without wanting to murder each other.

These kinds of meals don’t exist. Their closest equivalent is the military meal ready-to-eat (MRE). But as any soldier or prepper will tell you, an MRE is not something you can subsist on. The meals are not nutritionally complete, and soldiers’ own backronym for the combat ration (meals refusing to exit) sheds light on a notorious shortcomings. Defense department guidelines stress that soldiers should not be fed MREs for more than 21 days at a time…

Much more information, and useful charts, at the link. (I am mildly fixated on the fact that astronauts use the same indicator for discarding their disposable undergarments that my teenager brothers used to decide when to change theirs.)

Excellent Read: <em>Mars, Beyotches!</em>Post + Comments (90)

Respite: At Play in the Fields of the LLMs

by Tom Levenson|  March 1, 20266:17 pm| 109 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Respite, Technology, General Stupidity

ETA: This was written for Balloon Juice but is crossposted at Inverse Square.

So…

Just this week I learned that through my home institution I have access to a suite of LLMs, including all the usual suspects (Anthropic’s Claude, OpenAI’s ChapGPT, Meta’s Llama, and Google’s Gemini. MIT’s come up with a very nice interface to interact with all this artificial talent, and I’ve spent a couple of hours this weekend taking some of them out for a spin. (I’m avoiding OpenAI’s offerings both as a trivial protest and because I don’t trust anything about that company.

So far I’ve enjoyed Claude the most (the Haiku 4.5 model, if you’re wondering). Gemini is interesting, if a bit finicky. But what made me howl was the encounter I just had with Llama, Mr. Zuckerberg’s contribution to the genre. Context: over the holidays I  had a conversation with a senior person at another magnificent 7 tech firm who’d just seen a colleague leave to go to Meta who was utterly dismissive of the company and relieved to be rid of anyone dumb enough (in his view) to basically end his career in top-tier tech by grabbing Facebook bucks. Spoiler: after what you’ll read below, I can see where my friend was coming from.

So here’s the setup. I’ve been asking the various models what I hope are zero-consequence questions, queries in which no one could possibly get hurt if the LLMs wing their way to utter bollocks. A typical ask: map out the logical structure Einstein used in his 1905 light quantum behavior. That one tended to get an initial poor answer based on the idea that the paper centers on the then-pressing mystery of the photoelectric effect–a common mistake for people as well as machines. Pressing the models led Claude in particular to a much more sophisticated account of the paper drawing attention to the way Einstein used arguments from thermodynamics to propose the necessity of understanding light as discrete packets of energy.

Respite: At Play in t

The paper was about this new “heuristic” [Einstein’s term] view of light, and the photoelectric effect appears only as one experimental support for that view. (Much more here.)

After three or four trips through the query engineering needed to get a useful result I’d found my way down the list of models at my disposal to Meta’s Llama.  I was bored with light quanta and so asked a different, much simpler question:

“When a stock is overvalued as defined by a price to earnings ratio a standard deviation or more higher than historical market norms for that company’s sector, what are the typical events or analyses that drive that share price back down to the norm?”

Llama gave me a very stock answer that would have been at home in a high school economics class, so I decided to become a little more pointed in my pursuit:

Given that analysis, how would you explain Tesla’s long run of share prices between one and two orders of magnitude over that of other and much larger and more profitable car companies, like Toyota?

What followed was…first unimpressive and then hilarious. See for yourselves below the jump:

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Tesla’s Valuation Puzzle

Tesla’s share price has been a subject of fascination and debate, with its valuation often being significantly higher than that of other automakers, including Toyota. To understand this phenomenon, let’s examine the factors that have contributed to Tesla’s premium valuation.

Growth and Disruption

  1. Pioneering electric vehicles (EVs): Tesla was one of the first companies to successfully mass-produce EVs, creating a new market and disrupting the traditional automotive industry.
  2. Innovative technology: Tesla has been at the forefront of EV technology, with advancements in battery management, autonomous driving, and software updates.
  3. Brand loyalty and cult following: Tesla has built a strong brand identity, with a loyal customer base and a reputation for innovation and sustainability.

Investor Sentiment and Expectations

  1. Growth expectations: Investors have high expectations for Tesla’s future growth, driven by its expanding product lineup, increasing production capacity, and potential for further market disruption.
  2. Long-term vision: Tesla’s mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy has resonated with investors, who are willing to look beyond short-term profitability.
  3. Charismatic leadership: Elon Musk’s leadership and vision have been instrumental in shaping Tesla’s brand and driving investor enthusiasm.

Valuation Metrics and Comparisons

  1. Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: Tesla’s P/E ratio has often been significantly higher than that of traditional automakers, reflecting its growth prospects and investor expectations.
  2. Price-to-sales (P/S) ratio: Tesla’s P/S ratio has also been elevated, indicating that investors are willing to pay a premium for its revenue growth.
  3. Comparison to other growth stocks: Tesla’s valuation has been compared to that of other growth stocks, such as Amazon or Shopify, which have also experienced significant premium valuations.

Challenges and Risks

  1. Competition from established automakers: Traditional automakers, including Toyota, have been investing heavily in EV technology, potentially eroding Tesla’s competitive advantage.
  2. Production and delivery challenges: Tesla has faced production and delivery issues in the past, which can impact its ability to meet growth expectations.
  3. Regulatory risks: Changes in government policies or regulations can affect Tesla’s business, particularly if they impact the demand for EVs or the company’s access to incentives.

Why Tesla’s Valuation Has Remained High

Despite the challenges and risks, Tesla’s valuation has remained high due to a combination of factors:

  1. Continued growth and innovation: Tesla has continued to innovate and expand its product lineup, maintaining its position as a leader in the EV market.
  2. Investor enthusiasm and momentum: The company’s strong brand and charismatic leadership have maintained investor enthusiasm, driving the stock price higher.
  3. Speculative buying and short squeezes: Tesla’s stock has been subject to speculative buying and short squeezes, which can contribute to its high valuation.

Comparison to Toyota

Toyota, on the other hand, is a more established automaker with a larger market capitalization and a more diversified product lineup. While Toyota has been investing in EV technology, its valuation has been more in line with traditional automakers. The key differences between Tesla and Toyota are:

  1. Growth prospects: Tesla is expected to continue growing at a faster rate than Toyota, driven by its focus on EVs and innovative technology.
  2. Brand identity and disruption: Tesla has created a new market and disrupted the traditional automotive industry, whereas Toyota is a more established player with a different business model.

In conclusion, Tesla’s high valuation relative to Toyota and other traditional automakers can be attributed to a combination of factors, including its growth prospects, innovative technology, brand loyalty, and investor enthusiasm. While there are challenges and risks associated with Tesla’s business, its continued innovation and growth have maintained its premium valuation.

I saw a few problems with that conclusion, so I asked again:

I’d like you to follow up on that analysis. You say Tesla has an expanding product lineup; it has just discontinued its two largest models (Model S and Model X). The cybertruck has failed to become a mass market vehicle. And global sales are declining while Tesla has been overtaken by BYD as the world’s largest EV maker. Its innovation process has slowed, and it is arguably behind Waymo and others in autonomous driving. Its leader is a controversial figure, whose presence energizes one community but since 2024 at least has alienated another, arguably of those more likely to buy an EV. Are you sure that these are the factors that explain Tesla’s share price? Or to put it another way, would you invest Meta’s money in Tesla at the current P/E ratio?

What followed is, it seems to me, a perfect anecdata demonstration of why we might not want to surrender all of our critical faculties to a set of silicon overlords. Map what Llama says onto what I asked:

Revisiting Tesla’s Valuation

Upon further analysis, it appears that the factors I previously mentioned may not be as relevant as they once were. Tesla’s product lineup has indeed been contracting, with the discontinuation of its two largest models, the Model S and Model X. The Cybertruck, while innovative, has not achieved mass market success. Additionally, Tesla’s global sales have been declining, and the company has been overtaken by BYD as the world’s largest EV maker.

Challenges and Concerns

  1. Declining sales and market share: Tesla’s sales have been declining, and the company has lost its position as the world’s largest EV maker.
  2. Innovation slowdown: Tesla’s innovation process has slowed, particularly in the area of autonomous driving, where it is being surpassed by competitors like Waymo.
  3. Controversy surrounding Elon Musk: Elon Musk’s leadership and behavior have become increasingly polarizing, potentially alienating a significant portion of potential customers.

Reevaluating Tesla’s Valuation

In light of these challenges and concerns, it’s reasonable to question whether Tesla’s current valuation is justified. The company’s P/E ratio is still relatively high, indicating that investors are willing to pay a premium for its shares.

Investment Decision

If I were to advise Meta on investing in Tesla at the current P/E ratio, I would likely recommend caution. While Tesla is still a pioneering company in the EV space, its current challenges and concerns suggest that its growth prospects may be more limited than previously thought.

Alternative Investment Opportunities

There may be other investment opportunities in the EV or technology spaces that offer more attractive growth prospects and valuations. For example, companies like BYD, NIO, or Li Auto may offer more compelling investment opportunities due to their growth potential and competitive positioning.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while Tesla is still a significant player in the EV market, its current challenges and concerns suggest that its valuation may be due for a correction. As an investor, it’s essential to carefully evaluate the company’s prospects and consider alternative investment opportunities before making a decision. At the current P/E ratio, I would likely advise against investing in Tesla, and instead, explore other opportunities that offer more attractive growth prospects and valuations.

That’s a 180 degree swing from the prior answer, generated by nothing more than calling bullshit on the model’s first conclusion.

What does it all mean?

Hell if I know. I’m as far from an expert on all of this stuff as it’s possible to be. I’m just a guy with access to a very funny set of hammers out here looking for nails.

One thought though: there’s a lot of evidence out there, some of which I’ve encountered directly from colleagues and friends, in which various AI approaches have real and large impacts on various problems. Folks doing drug discovery or protein analysis or a lot of coding tasks and…well the list goes on. And in just my brief playtime with Claude et al., I got some distinct value from the LLMs’ ability to look at specific texts and break them down. So anyone saying AI is a fraud top to bottom is, I think, clearly wrong.

But those who think that a general machine intelligence is right around the corner…well, the Llama case above seems to me a pretty clear example of how a statistical inference machine operating on a bucket full of internet slop may not be all that, not yet and quite possibly not for an arbitrarily long time to come.

Image: J. M. W. Turner, Keelman hauling coals by moonlight, 1835

Respite: At Play in the Fields of the LLMsPost + Comments (109)

Sunday Morning Open Thread

by Anne Laurie|  February 22, 20267:31 am| 249 Comments

This post is in: Local Races, Nature, Open Threads, Science & Technology

Now for something completely different:
This is too cool

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— Lady with an opinion (@ladymitopinion.bsky.social) February 20, 2026 at 4:57 PM

For you birders, ICYMI…

The return of the Hell Heron. How every modern Heron imagines itself. 1/2 ??
A UChicago-led team unearthed ‘Spinosaurus mirabilis,’ Hell Heron, a fish-eating giant and the first new species of its kind in a century, where nothing like it was supposed to exist
news.uchicago.edu/story/hell-h…

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— EveryHeron ?? (@everyheron.bsky.social) February 20, 2026 at 4:26 AM

“I envision this dinosaur as a kind of ‘hell heron’ that had no problem wading on its sturdy legs into two meters of water but probably spent most of its time stalking shallower traps for the many large fish of the day,” Sereno said. 2/2

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— EveryHeron ?? (@everyheron.bsky.social) February 20, 2026 at 4:26 AM

======
Sunday Morning Open Thread 21

It’s hardly an unbiased source, but on the other hand, I doubt many of you read Puck, so for entertainment purposes only — Abby Livingston, “Is Jasmine Crockett Even Trying to Win in Texas?”

By every conventional standard, Rep. Jasmine Crockett is running an underwhelming Senate primary campaign. Her Democratic rival, State Rep. James Talarico, has outraised her by a two-to-one margin; she’s getting swamped on television by Talarico ads; and she reportedly did not have a formal campaign manager as late as this month. And that was before Stephen Colbert publicly accused his CBS bosses of yanking his interview with Talarico, creating a Streisand effect that funneled national attention and another $2.5 million to his campaign. (The interview currently has more than 7 million views on YouTube.) In the aftermath, the pro-Talarico social media contingent was all but ready to stick a fork in Crockett’s Senate ambitions.

But Texans on the ground aren’t so sure. Talarico’s headline advantages notwithstanding, there’s enough credible private and public polling to suggest that Crockett could overcome them and win the primary on March 3. One recent poll showed Crockett up by eight points (with a four-point margin of error). “The fundamentals of the race have not corresponded or correlated with the public polling,” said a Texas Democrat. “Even squinting at them, I can’t really draw a picture of what’s happening in the race.”…

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For his part, Talarico boasts formidable campaign strengths. Having burst into the national consciousness with a Joe Rogan interview last summer, the young seminarian has managed to out-fundraise even Cornyn, a former N.R.S.C. chairman, pulling in $13 million over the course of the race, as reported earlier this month. (He recently reported a $1.5 million cash-on-hand advantage over Crockett.) The campaign and its allied groups have deployed these resources in a massive TV buy, booking $15.3 million in ads, according to AdImpact. Team Crockett has booked only $2.8 million. “She’s not spending to the level she would need to win,” said an unaligned Democratic strategist who handles TV buys. “I’m not saying she can’t win, but I’m saying the conventional wisdom is you cannot be this silent on the airwaves.”…

Still, there are serious operatives and officeholders in both parties who believe Crockett is on track to win the nomination. The polling has been all over the place, with each candidate in the lead depending on where you turn. That’s partly because there’s no recent historical precedent for a competitive Texas Democratic primary that could help predict turnout. Yes, there are signs that the unpredictable Hispanic voting bloc and suburban white women are migrating back to Democrats. But even the smartest strategists concede that they’re making educated guesses on polling samples, and nobody really knows who will show up to vote on March 3.

Crockett’s hypothetical path to victory would depend on consolidating the Black vote behind her in the big cities and East Texas, combined with other support derived from the high name recognition she’s built up over the years as one of the most bombastically engaged House Democrats on social media. (Lest we forget her 2024 “bleach blonde bad built butch body” comment about Marjorie Taylor Greene, Crockett sells merch with the quote.) The entire reason Talarico is spending all this money, after all, is to introduce himself to Texas Democratic primary voters—something that public polling suggests Crockett has already accomplished. Crockett’s own internal poll from the outset of her launch showed she had 82 percent name ID among Democratic voters, which tracks with internal polling I’m hearing about from other camps.

But can awareness, social media stardom, and a strong Black vote help Crockett overcome the millions of dollars being spent against her on television, digital advertising, and direct mail? The Crockett camp did not comment for this story, but for many outside operatives closely watching this race, Crockett’s campaign is a test of whether the traditional fundamentals of Democratic campaigns still hold in a post-Trump, post-television, social media–inflected era. If she does pull off a victory, it would be a historic development indeed.

Another potential harbinger of Democratic politics to come is the ferocity of online infighting—not so much between Crockett and Talarico, themselves, but among their supporters. State-based and national influencers are building followings in part around their superfandom of candidates, almost like political analogs to Swifties and K-pop stans. Unverified gossip and unsubstantiated personal attacks that have nothing to do with policy show up daily on Threads, TikTok, and X. “I wish this was treated with a little more seriousness,” said a native Texas Dem watching the race from Washington…

These jabs are child’s play compared to what the Republicans will throw at the eventual nominee. (Talarico has referred to God as “nonbinary”; Crockett’s greatest hits reel includes calling Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who uses a wheelchair, “Governor Hot Wheels,” though she has insisted it wasn’t a reference to his disability.) But given that Crockett and Talarico served in the state government together, and that there will be five months to heal before the general election really kicks off, there’s some confidence that whichever candidate wins on March 3 will be capable of uniting Texas Democrats.

Influencers, though, may not be so inclined to reconcile, given the incentives for conflict online. “What we are seeing in the Texas primary, with the fight between the influencers and not the just candidates, is a precursor to the 2028 election,” said Amanda Litman, the president of Run for Something. “The attention is going to be on influencers, who you cannot control and should not control, but who have a huge megaphone. People should be preparing themselves for how fucking terrible it will be.”…

Sunday Morning Open ThreadPost + Comments (249)

Respite: Some Vaccine Good News

by Tom Levenson|  February 20, 202611:08 pm| 20 Comments

This post is in: Healthcare, Open Threads, Respite, Science & Technology

Meant to get this up earlier, but life got in the way,  so I’m just going to post this anyway, just to give us some good news to chew on.

First up on what I guess we can call vaccine Friday: we can now immunize you against a whole bunch of nasty viruses all at once–if you’re a mouse.

Quick Respite/Reminder: Vaccines Are...Kinda Good, Ya Know

This is from the Nature summary of the research, which was published today in Science.

Imagine if a nasal spray could make you immune not only to the viruses that cause COVID-19 and influenza, but to all respiratory diseases. In a paper1published in Science today, researchers describe a vaccine that has done just that. When given to mice, the vaccine protected them for at least three months against multiple disease-causing viruses and bacteria — including the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 — and even quelling responses to respiratory allergens.

What’s coolest about this (to my historically inclined mind) is that the research that led to this new “universal” vaccine began with an investigation of an old one, the Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccine. BCG was developed over more than half a century in Germany and France in an effort that began with the isolation of the bacterium that’s the pathogen behind bovine tuberculosis, and culminated with work at the Pasteur Institute that followed Louis Pasteur’s signature move of attenuating a disease-causing microbe until it could induce immunity without making the person receiving the jab sick. It became the first vaccine for tuberculosis in 1921.

Fast forward a century, and the mechanism of action in that vaccine–activating the latent immune system, which, as Liam Drew writes in that Nature summary, is an  “evolutionarily ancient system [that] has a much broader reactivity than does the adaptive immune system”–led researchers to this:

In the latest study, Pulendran’s team developed a universal vaccine that targets the innate immune system, with three components. The first two are drugs that stimulate specific receptor proteins that can activate innate immune cells, such as macrophages that reside in the lungs. [link in the original]

The third component stimulates a population of T cells, which are part of the adaptive immune system. Their task is to keep sending signals to the innate immune system to maintain its active state.”

The vaccine works a treat in mice, but, as the linked Nature news piece makes clear, there are significant hurdles to overcome to create a safe and effective human version. But even so, this is a necessary and genuinely exciting first step.

The second bit of good vaccine news–not so much “good” as “promising” or potentially valuable–comes from a very early human trial of personalized mRNA vaccines for triple-negative breast cancer, a particularly nasty and intractable form of disease in which the cancer cells lack targets for the three most common drugs for the condition.

A paper published in Nature a couple of days ago provided the results of a trial of a vaccine approach that in essence persuades patients’ immune systems to react to the drugs, using mRNA as the vector–or as the clinical brief summary put it:

We conducted an exploratory trial of these personalized vaccines to assess their feasibility, safety and mechanism of action, rather than clinical benefit. We genetically sequenced tumour cells and healthy cells from 14 individuals with early-stage, surgically removed TNBC and used algorithms to select mutations that generate neoantigens. For each participant, we manufactured a personalized mRNA vaccine encoding up to 20 neoantigens. Once administered intravenously, the vaccine reaches lymphoid organs, where T cells are taught how to recognize the mRNA-encoded neoantigens.

This trial was intended to test the feasibility of the approach, but it did have an impact on the patients involved:

Ten participants remained disease-free, and one participant died of unknown causes. Relapse occurred in three individuals, enabling us to gain insights into possible resistance mechanisms.

Again–very early work, miles to go before we sleep, and caution around any small scale cancer study is not just warranted but required. Still, another exciting first step.

In sum: A) science is so cool. And B) while this is a respite post, I’d be remiss if I didn’t add that this is reason ∞ that RFK Jr.’s antivaccine crusade–and his anti-mRNA technology pathology in particular–is such a disaster. Both of the studies above are fine preliminary research results. They won’t mean anything if the next stages of the work don’t happen, and if the US scientific shut down continues for much longer, the basic science that won’t get done will prevent any new such leads to appear. Worse, the damage so far to ongoing research program is such that we’ve already lost potential advances in human flourishing.

So yes, this is all good news. But there’s a lot of work to be done to make it possible for more such promising outcomes to arrive down the road.

Happy weekend, everyone. The thread, as usual, is open.

[Crossposted at Inverse Square]

Image Zhu Zhenji, Mouse and stone, 1427.

Respite: Some Vaccine Good NewsPost + Comments (20)

Thursday Morning Open Thread

by Anne Laurie|  February 19, 20267:12 am| 199 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Show Us on the Doll Where the Invisible Hand Touched You, Space

Mercury was only 50 arcminutes (0.8°) above a very young waxing crescent Moon this evening. KAS member Pete Mumbower captured this image from his home in Vicksburg, MI.

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— Kalamazoo Astronomical Society (@kzooastro.bsky.social) February 18, 2026 at 7:44 PM

We won’t ever forget Melissa, Mark, and Gilbert Hortman.
Now, we honor Melissa’s legacy by building the Minnesota she believed in and fought so hard for.

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— Minnesota House DFL (@mnhousedfl.bsky.social) February 18, 2026 at 11:06 AM

“In this country American means white. Everybody else has to hyphenate.” —The Queen, Toni Morrison

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— Professor Bigfoot (@professorbigfoot.bsky.social) February 18, 2026 at 11:11 AM

The SAVE America Act is about one thing—making it harder for everyday American citizens to vote.

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— Rep. Jim McGovern (@repmcgovern.bsky.social) February 18, 2026 at 2:32 PM

After years of monopolizing the live event industry and overcharging fans, a court has ruled that our lawsuit with Live Nation will go to trial. 
I’ll keep fighting to deliver justice to fans, artists, and venues across the country.

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— New York Attorney General Letitia James (@newyorkstateag.bsky.social) February 18, 2026 at 6:26 PM

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Last year in the White House, when Trump tried to intimidate Maine into following his executive order, I fought back, took him to court, and won.
Anyone can talk tough — but I get things done. Watch my new ad:

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— Janet Mills (@janetmillsforme.bsky.social) February 18, 2026 at 8:24 AM

I've got a message for the White House on behalf of the union workers Donald Trump laid off when he illegally shutdown the Gateway tunnel:
LET THEM BUILD.

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— Governor Kathy Hochul (@governor.ny.gov) February 17, 2026 at 5:02 PM

HOCHUL CANT KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH THIS

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— #1 Nate Blouin for Congress Stan (@purrtah.bsky.social) February 19, 2026 at 2:03 AM

You ever wish the smartest young(er) people you know of would run for Congress? THEN THIS RIGHT HERE IS FOR YOU.

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— ??LOLGOP?? (@thefarce.org) February 18, 2026 at 11:46 AM

…
We are told over and over again
that we are supposed to report suspicious activities, that we are supposed to defend the sensitive data that we hold of American people. Millions of people trust us with their vulnerable moments, if they’re scammed by their financial company, if they’re having trouble with their mortgage. The technical term we use for it is “personally identifying information.” And we have a lot of very specific training about how to handle it. And so I was very concerned that the people that I had never seen before were there, appeared to have CFPB equipment. So I tried to take a look…

And there were three individuals in the room. One I now know to be Jordan Wick. He immediately ran away, out of the room. The second was Jeremy Lewin, who was a big part of dismantling USAID. He immediately went into the corner of the room. And then the third DOGE individual was Christopher Young. I didn’t know any of this at the time. I just asked them what their name was. They refused to give me their name. They said that they were authorized to be there, but they didn’t have to tell me their name.

And I said, “We have a lot of really sensitive information and data from Americans. We have personally identifying information. Do you know the trainings that we have to take in order to handle this? Have you had those trainings? Do you know what those trainings are?” And they just stared at me blankly and said that they wished that security would come and kick me out of the building…

And so, I eventually walked away. I left of my own accord. And then, later that day, I got an email saying I was immediately being placed on administrative leave, and I was not to enter our headquarters in Washington, D.C., nor access any work systems. And I have been on admin leave ever since, until I was fired last week…

So, the CFPB doesn’t cost the public a single dollar, but has returned $21 billion to consumers in its short lifespan, in the form of relief and restitution. I think that made us a big target. We do a lot of good. We don’t cost the public a single dollar.

So, one of the first things that happened, actually, later that day, was Elon Musk tweeted ”RIP CFPB.” An email went out over the weekend saying that everyone — not just me, but everyone — was banned from going to our headquarters building. We were ordered to stop all work. And then they began slowly, over the coming weeks, to dismiss our lawsuits, over 20 lawsuits against financial firms, including firms like Navy Federal, who had already agreed to a settlement to give $80 million back to consumers. That money never went back to consumers. And these lawsuits were dismissed with prejudice, which means that we can never bring up those lawsuits again…

I’m trying to turn lemons into lemonade, and I’m actually going — I’m running for the House of Representatives in Maryland’s 6th District. It’s a slightly crowded race. There’s two mega-millionaires that are already running in the Democratic primary: April McClain Delaney and David Trone. But I think that the people of the 6th District deserve someone who’s going to fight to build libraries, not ICE jails, like the detention center they’re trying to build in Hagerstown, Maryland; that’s going to fight to fund schools, not data centers, that are giveaways to Big Tech. And I think that the district has shown enormous bravery, the residents there, in standing up for their neighbors, and I think that Maryland 6 deserves a representative that shows the same amount of bravery as ordinary people. I’m not doing this as a vanity project. I’m doing this because I want to fight against fascism in America.

Thursday Morning Open ThreadPost + Comments (199)

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