There’s been a lot of Village chatter about how John Boehner is the man of the hour. Code Orange! Big Bad John! I doubt they used those headlines but it’s the best I could think of on the spot.
I’ve been drinking some of the Boehner Kool Aid myself, I think that he’s a tough adversary, not a self-indulgent ideologue like Newt Gingrich was, but a reasonably savvy pragmatist. The polling numbers for House Republicans look bad right now though:
Exit polls showed independents supporting the GOP by a 19 point margin last year at 56-37. Now only 30% of those voters think that the Republican controlled House is moving things in the right direction, compared to 44% who think things were better with the Democrats. Given those numbers it’s not much of a surprise that independents now say they’d vote Democratic for the House by a 42-33 margin if these was an election today, representing a 28 point reversal in a span of just five months.
Charlie Cook is saying that Democrats could take the House back in 2012.
If Republicans lose the House in 2012, all of Mike Allen’s praise won’t mean much.
Lolis
Donald Trump is just the man to lead Republicans to victory. He has a spray tan and awful hair. Take that, Boehner!
Phoenician in a time of Romans
Charlie Cook is saying that Democrats could take the House back in 2012.
Which means, what, more speeches about “bipartisan compromise” before the Republican agenda is passed?
Elia Isquire
Did we already talk about that CNN poll which showed everybody BUT Republicans is happy with the budget deal?
Hard to be “winning” when your constituency is mad at you, right?
Warren Terra
The Republicans just electioneer better than the Democrats do, though. My impression – and I’d be delighted to be proven wrong – is that Democrats consistently do much better in generic Congress polls in odd-numbered years than they do in the latter half of even-numbered (read: election) years.
HyperIon
@Elia Isquire:
How about Drum’s post suggesting that it’s mostly smoke and mirrors anyway?
Is it possible to truly understand ANYTHING political these days? It’s very hard to hold an opinion when the “facts” keep changing.
kindness
@Warren Terra: No, the Republicans just lie convincingly.
Elia Isquire
@HyperIon: Thanks for this! Hadn’t seen it. Gotta love living in the post-truth world.
Lev
@Lolis: Orange skin > Orange hair. Trump is not an upgrade.
WyldPirate
Won’t make any difference. The Rethugs take the Senate in 2012–not like they haven’t had it anyway, really.
Then we have Obama–Rethug lite pandering to the middle for re-election. Can’t wait until he endorses vouchers for destroying Medicare for anyone under 55 and praises the goddamned Rethuglicans for their wisdom.
Then we have the hilarity that will ensue over the debt ceiling as the Rethugs wrap Obama’s 2006 “nay” vote to raise the debt ceiling.
Good times ahead…..
Studly Pantload, Vibrant Trollbot for Obama
Yay for 28-point swings. Fascinating how quickly this new crop of Republicans – in the House and in the various states where they rose to power in ‘010 – are becoming less popular than buboes.
And speaking of frisky House Republicans, here’s fun:
I have a feeling that visions of Nancy taking back the gavel will be the only thing that allows me to sleep at various points over the next couple of years.
Butler
@kindness: That’s what a lot of campaigning is.
Hermione Granger-Weasley
A tree just fell in the forest…..
Comrade DougJ
@HyperIon:
I buy that it’s largely smoke and mirrors. We’re in a V-chip and school uniforms phase of the presidency right now, and that’s all about smoke and mirrors. Plus when you go through the cuts, there are in fact a lot of accounting tricks.
I still think it wasn’t a great deal, but it’s not as bad as I originally thought.
Lev
@Studly Pantload, Vibrant Trollbot for Obama: I wouldn’t worry so much about that. It’s pretty clear that Boehner doesn’t include Cantor in the loop possibly at all. A few months ago I thought that Boehner was Cantor’s sock puppet, but now I’m thinking the reverse is true.
feebog
I think it is more than just possible that Dems take back the House in 2012, it’s likely. Cook is wrong, IMHO, about one thing in his article, or least not completly right. He attributes the Republican 2010 tidal wave entirely to movement by independent voters. But an even more critical factor was low democratic turn out in comparison to 2008. We are going to see a return of those Democrats in 2012, and that, coupled with continued Independent dissatisfaction with Republicans will lead to a Democratic takeover.
Elia Isquire
@Studly Pantload, Vibrant Trollbot for Obama:
It is amazing how quickly this is happening. We saw it at first with the teahadist govs approval ratings plummeting almost immediately. 2 steps forward 1 step back America.
JC
So, what, Rethugs lose the House, by then, Obama has compromised away Medicare, outsourced the IRS?
Or, perhaps, the House Republicans default on the debit, allow chaos in the markets for a few weeks – just enough to stall the economic recovery, such as it is, for the next year and a half – and then with over 9 percent unemployment, Obama loses to the Alaskan schmuck?
All the while, the Beltway will be salivating at the FIGHT of it all. Such drama! Kids on the street! Will Boehner and Obama get into a cage match?? Oh, and isn’t Ryan serious?
Martin
Ayn Rand may have warned against getting rid of the incandescent lightbulb, but California is going the other way.
Tyranny!
Comrade DougJ
@Elia Isquire:
It’s not so surprising, Republicans campaigned on a crappy economy and then got in and just wanted to talk about abortion and NPR. That was stupid and anyone could have told them it would go over like a lead balloon.
Violet
Sheesh. We’re ages away from the election. A lot can change.
Elia Isquire
Rand Paul is so obviously literally stupid. Noted DFH Richard Epstein wrote a good piece detailing how superficial and dumbass Paul’s version of libertarianism is — even by libertarianism’s standards!
JC
The point being, that Obama is in a lose-lose with the Rethugs.
If he stands strong, they shut down the government, causing chaos, and hindering the recovery, thus boosting the republican candidate, going into November 2012.
If he compromises, and accepts cuts, this also contributes to contractionary and recessionary forces – and boosts the republican candidate going into November 2012.
All the while, the press should be – as they should have for the last two years – the press should be ROASTING the Rethugs, for their transparent cynicism, their transparent power plays, their ‘no no no, we only really care about tax cuts’.
But instead, we’ve had over 2 years of zero sum gangster behavior, which only gets rewarded, both in the media and Village level, and in voting patterns.
Given that, why wouldn’t the Rethugs continue doing what they are doing?
Martin
@JC:
You’re right. Obama is actually worse than the Republicans.
Xantar
@JC:
And I just know Obama is going to announce a plan to cut Social Security at his State of the Union, too!
Elia Isquire
@Comrade DougJ: I meant that was surprising, too! They had an enormous amount of success just saying “deficit” over and over without articulating a plan of any sort etc…And then, as soon as they get in there, they do what you said. It’s like social issues is the Jake Gylenhaal to their Heath Ledger.
Keith G
For this to happen, besides all the common intangibles, we need an over-all strategy and narrative to get a lot under-educated whites to vote Dem. We also need a forceful and combative (even ruthless) party leadership who can joyfully take the fight to the trenches. I wonder if a party leadership can take root and take advantage of these condtions.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz is a good start, but one Schultz does not a campaign make.
Comrade Dread
I have tremendous faith in the power of the Democratic party to completely blow it in the next 18 months.
I also have a lot of faith in the power of unlimited corporate campaign dollars to finance a lot of propaganda in the next 18 months.
All in all, I have no faith that this country will move from its current lunacy and will, in fact, go completely insane soon.
Violet
@Keith G:
At least they’re starting somewhere. Better than the feckless Tim Kaine.
PeakVT
independents now say they’d vote Democratic for the House by a 42-33 margin if these was an election today, representing a 28 point reversal in a span of just five months.
Thanks,
independentslow-information swing voters, for figuring out that what Democrats told you would happen if Republicans were elected actually, you know, happened.Midnight Marauder
This is lunacy. Are you sure it was Boehner Kool-Aid and not Boehner Arsenic?
This is who you are describing as “a reasonably savvy pragmatist?”
You can do better with the front page trolling, DougJ.
Comrade DougJ
@Elia Isquire:
A poorly closeted Hollywood star as opposed to a dead Hollywood star?
piratedan
@Comrade DougJ: but they have a mandate to govern, even Fox News says so…….
well, as hopeful as those numbers are now… they amount to bupkis unless the folks in charge on the other side of the aisle get their messaging in order. Something short, sweet and effective that resonates with the poor and middle class because we know (thanks to the SCOTUS) where the money is gonna be bet and laid on. If we thought outside cash was bad during this last election, now they’ve had two years to analyze what worked and what didn’t, so you can expect more filth, lies and cherrypicked facts to promote your friendly local racist theologian running for office which will be tailor made for the 30 sec attention span of the general electorate, be it abortion, immigration, terrorism, jobs, debt, what have you, for these guys it really doesn’t matter what the push button topic is as long as they can wedge and distract the average voter from their own self interest from whatever ginned up outrage they can concoct.
JC
Martin, Xantar,
You guys aren’t getting my point. Cut, cut, cut, compromise, compromise, compromise.
I actually think that Obama is doing well, given the best of bad choices.
BUT LOOK AT THE VECTOR.
Tax levels still at Bush levels.
Obama’s choice for competitive council, is GE’s head – who pays no taxes on billions of profit.
A small minority in the Senate, only caused the minimal acceptable health plan to get enacted – which was good, but so much less than was the practical good.
1/3 of the levers of government – House, Senate, Obama – can decide to play chicken – and it is greeted as entertainment, rather than the gangsterism is so definitely is.
I’m just tired of this environment in which the good is always punished, and the bad are regarded as ‘serious’.
cat48
Rich Lowry just figured out somethings not right about budget deal; on twitter:
OzoneR
If Charlie Cook is saying Democrats may win the House, then right now it’s certain Dems will.
I mean he refused to admit the Republicans can lose it in 2006 until the 218th Democrat was seated.
Comrade DougJ
@piratedan:
I’m not sure about that. If Republicans talk about abortion and NPR for the next year, they’ll have dug their own grave.
WyldPirate
@Keith G:
I would settle for just SOME leadership. The clowns in DC–particularly in the Democratic party–couldn’t lead a circle jerk at a Boy Scout Jamboree much less a country.
I’ll take that back. Both parties can lead the country…to ruin. One by sheer criminality and rampant greed, the other through their utter fecklessness.
joes527
I wouldn’t be dancing on the R’s grave quite yet. All the dancing on their grave in 2009 seems to have stirred them up.
Hermione Granger-Idiotley
@cat48: we can only hope so.
agorabum
@Elia Isquire: Nobody likes Congress. If you support a party, you are disappointed in them when they have power (see: Tehadists, pouty Dems who stayed home in the midterms). And the independents don’t seem to care for anyone in power, but especially don’t like the current crop of culture war / know-nothing / anti-science / fealty to the rich Republicans.
Republican policies gross people out more, but they get forgotten when the Republicans aren’t in power.
Don’t forget, Bush squeaked into office with 49% and his polls started dropping as soon as he got his agenda going; it’s likely he would have been a one termer but for all the wars.
Elia Isquire
@Comrade DougJ: Exactly.
Baud
@cat48: That made my day. Thanks.
jazzgurl
Crumbs, the men on this board are a bunch of negative,doom and gloom wimps. Is that all you lot can sit and scribe and bitch, and gripe, and snip? A damn bunch of pansies!
Grow the hell away from the cynicism! But then,Cole both loves and encourages the snarkiness.
Hermione Granger-Idiotley
@WyldPirate: who let you out of your
cagebasement WP? did the internet come back on in your part of town recently?piratedan
@Comrade DougJ: didn’t they talk about abortion all the last two years regarding HCR and apparently nobody freaking noticed….damn near didn’t get it passed despite everyone noting that it wasn’t in there until someone had to brain Stupak with a chair to get his head out of his ass and get onboard with the program.
Bob Loblaw
Boehner has a zero percent chance of being Speaker come 2013. No matter who controls the House.
Lolis
@WyldPirate:
If Republicans lose the House it is improbable they would win the Senate. Those two usually go hand in hand. Dems barely retained control of the Senate thanks to some crazy Tea Party nominees.
blahblahblah
pshaw! The Democrats take back the House of Representatives? What the fuck would they do with it? The last time the Dems held all three branches they bent themselves over the table and offered the Republicans unlubricated condoms. They called that “bipartisanship”.
Corner Stone
@jazzgurl: Aren’t you on an island somewhere? And basically just pop in once in a while to make this same comment?
cleek
@JC:
yes, sometimes people get elected who don’t agree with you and they do shit you don’t like. that’s how democracy works.
ksmiami
Rinse and Repeat – THE CURRENT REPUBLICAN PARTY IS MADE UP OF SOCIOPATHS
Midnight Marauder
@joes527:
Actually, I think all those bigoted old white people who are incapable of processing the reality that is living in 21st century multicultural America, seem to have stirred up this hornets’ nest of rank ignorance and a nihilistic pursuit to tear down everything that is logical and rational in this world.
BombIranForChrist
I wonder what Boehner said to keep the Freak caucus quiet.
If he said, “don’t worry, we’ll really stick it to them during the debt ceiling debate”, he may run into a buzz saw and end up having to deal more than is comfortable with Dems to get anything out of the House.
Because at the end of the day, Boehner is a Corporate Man. There is no way in hell he’s going to play chicken with the debt ceiling for too long. Once the markets start quaking, he’ll fold.
cleek
Charlie Cook should put his powers of prediction to practical use, like, winning tomorrow’s PowerBall.
Lolis
@blahblahblah:
What BS! Democrats in the House passed health care, the stimulus, cap and trade and a bunch of other great bills with zero or tiny amounts of Republican support. I don’t understand why “liberals” misrepresent the past.
Corner Stone
IMO, it is highly, highly doubtful the R’s lose the House in 2012.
And even if they do, the R’s will take the Senate.
But it’s IMO we will see a decent majority R House and a slim majority R Senate.
And if unemployment is still 8.x% then IMO Obama himself is in some serious trouble.
Comrade DougJ
@Bob Loblaw:
Cantor?
Chris G
@Violet: In fairness, Charlie Cook was saying the same thing about the Dems around this point in 2009.
Mnemosyne
@WyldPirate:
Hey, here’s an idea: why don’t you pledge not to post on Balloon-Juice until Obama makes his Medicare-destroying announcement? After all, if it’s going to happen shortly, you’ll only have to be away for a few weeks, right?
WyldPirate
@Lolis:
Your naivete is charming. The Dems have 20+ seats up for re-election in ’12. They have what, a three vote margin? It’s a repeat of what happened when the Dems took the Senate the last time. I would put almost every dollar I have (which isn’t much) down on the Rethugs taking the Senate.
@Hermione Granger-Idiotley:
Your shit is real weak, Hermione. Crawl back up on the porch with the puppies if that’s alll you’ve got for an “insult”, ’cause you certainly aren’t ready to run with the big dogs.
FlipYrWhig
@Midnight Marauder:
Yes, but, on the positive side, every day more of them die.
Elia Isquire
@Comrade DougJ: That’ll piss Rahm off.
Maude
@Bob Loblaw:
I wonder if the Republicans House members will try to get rid of him before then. Maybe try to put Cantor as Speaker.
Hermione Granger-Idiotley
@WyldPirate: LOL you dem big dogs? please troll. even the liberal Joe Beese beats your weak sauce. your tl’drs are insufficiently mclaren length to warrant discussion. You have to bring your firebagger A game here, dude.
Martin
@Corner Stone: Good CW there. California unemployment was at 12.5% and Dems picked up every state executive office and a few more legislative ones out here. Dems didn’t lose a single federal seat.
Rules are rules except when they aren’t, which is often.
By 2012 a lot of redistricting will be done. It’s anyone’s bet how that’ll shake things up.
WyldPirate
@Hermione Granger-Idiotley:
Wow…a board bad ass. I’m scared.
Emerald
@Comrade DougJ:
Nah. They’re gonna change the subject now. From now on, it’s how to turn Medicare into a private system with vouchers (oops! coupons!).
Oh yeah, I expect to see the gavel back in Nancy’s hand next round.
"Serious" Superluminar
@DougJ
you should really front page that Kevin Drum post mentioned up thread, looks like teabaggers really did get fucked by Obama/The Orange One playing some kind of dimensional board game…
Martin
@Maude: That won’t happen. I think the returning GOP members know that yielding the agenda to the freshman is suicide. They need Boehner to keep this thing from going completely off the rails. They might go for someone else in leadership, but not a teatard like Cantor.
I think the GOP are fucked in the House and possibly the Senate as well because this party civil war is only going to get uglier and more visible. Their message will be shit by next year. They’ll have complete nutjobs running for office. And all the independent criticism they get they’ll respond to by screaming louder.
CaliCat
Is this actually a serious statement?
Tom Q
@OzoneR: This is actually a quick turnaround for Cook. In January/February of this year, he was essentially declaring the Dems had no chance of taking back the House in ’12.
Alot of DC observers had got used to the mostly small swings in House seats that prevailed from the 80s through mid-2000s — with the obvious exception of 1994, most years between ’84 and ’04 saw only single-digit turnover — so the idea that we could see really wide-ranging change in cycle after cycle is foreign to them. But such swings used to be the norm, and I think another is likely, at least this time, because — assuming the economy creates jobs at the recent moderate pace through Nov. ’12 — the Dems will be running in a favorable presidential climate, with the hugely disparate presidential year turnout creating a totally different electorate from what we saw in ’10.
Midnight Marauder
@FlipYrWhig:
Good riddance.
@Maude:
No way the Universe gives us a gift like that. No way.
Davis X. Machina
@BombIranForChrist: He’ll do as he’s told, but it’ll cost him his gavel. The freshman and teahadis will have their pound of flesh.
WyldPirate
@Mnemosyne:
It will be par for the course for Obama, Mnemosyne. He seemed to be happy as a pig in shit bragging about his compromise to whack 40 BN out of the budget.
Krugman is right…Obama is missing in fucking action as a leader.
stuckinred
It’s official.
Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty is running for President.
Maude
@Martin:
I wondered if there are enough crazies to do something like that. Cantor came out today and talked about the US going into default. That type of talk does make me uneasy.
I’m not sure if Boehner has said he’s for not raising the debt ceiling.
Violet
@Chris G:
That Dems would take the House in 2010? He was completely wrong, then.
CaliCat
Psycho Party takes country hostage.
The left fawns over Psycho Party.
Unbelievable.
Bob Loblaw
@Comrade DougJ:
Or Pelosi, yep. And I would bet on Pelosi.
Violet
@stuckinred:
This whole “listening tour,” “exploratory committee,” “officially announcing” rigmarole is so stupid. I’m with Cosby: announce or STFU.
Violet
Oh, and T-Paw is far too interesting of a nickname for Pawlenty. I prefer Timp.
lamh34
OT, but PBS is re-showing the documentary “The President’s Photographer” all about Pete Souza, the official WH photographer, right now. POTUS and others provide little snippets of interviews as well. Check it out.
Corner Stone
@Martin: Hey jackass, that’s why I used “IMO” three fucking times.
And your CA analogy is useless.
kay
@Elia Isquire:
I listen to Rand Paul, because I watched one of his debates and he is really dumb.
The problem is, Epstein’s long explanation of Rand Paul’s petulant whine is exactly what Paul said. Sure, Paul sounded worse, but it’s the same basic idea.
It really doesn’t matter if libertarians use 7 simple words or 500 elegant words.
It all goes to the same place.
I don’t blame Epstein, I’d be embarrassed to claim Rand Paul too, but that essay isn’t going to let libertarians weasel out of what Paul said.
Paul’s a libertarian, all right. Not a particularly bright libertarian, but a libertarian.
Napoleon
Tom Q, another reason it may become the norm for a while is you have a huge split of how the old and young vote and a huge difference on whether they turn out for mid terms. That all but insures huge swings, the only question being are the swings extremes such that the house changes hands.
bemused
Who are these “independent” creatures? Low info voters, vacillating opportunists?
They piss me off almost as much as wingnuts.
Elia Isquire
@kay: Hmm. You think Epstein’s BSing when he argues that Jim Crow was not an authoritarian environment etc etc etc? I tend to think libertarianism’s main problem is how unworkable it is, but maybe if you’ve got to write in such great detail and with such “nooowance” it means you’re argument sucks.
lamh34
@lamh34:
I didn’t know that GWB’s official photographer was a Black guy.
blahblahblah
@Lolis:
Oh, you mean the “Insurance Company Monopoly Protection Act”? That health insurance bill that forces citizens to buy private insurance without any real checks on cost? Yeah. Great. fucking. plan.
And lets not forget his wonderful civil liberties policies of continuing detention without due process, torturing a US citizen on US soil (Bradley Manning), continuing so-called ‘extraordinary renditions’ without a hint of due process, continuing the Guantanamo gulag, asserting the right to kill even US citizens at will without due process. And as for fiscal policy, caving into Republican demands to extend the Bush tax cuts for the rich while in wartime and running a severe structural deficit, and now collaborating with Republicans on the death of Medicare, Medicaide, and soon Social Security. It’s like these assholes put a target on the backs of the US citizenry.
Great. Fucking. President.
I was a loyal Democrat for nearly twenty years. I held signs on street corners. I canvassed the neighborhood in ‘get out the vote’ drives. I personally got almost thirty kids in 1992 to vote for Clinton by repeatedly showing a videotape of the ’92 convention promises for health care.
And this is what the Democratic Party has become? I did not leave the party, it left me. I cannot in good conscience support this President or the Democratic Party any longer. I’ll be voting for fringe candidates for some time to come.
bemused
@Violet:
Timp! Hee, hee, that’s brilliant.
Sko Hayes
I don’t know why you think Boehner is a good leader, when he’s had two Republican bills in the House voted down by his own Teabaggers, and can’t seem to get his caucus together long enough (they’ve taken several breaks this year) to pass any legislation that will pass the Senate. Except for this budget bill, which started out with $100 billion in cuts, had to negotiate for weeks with his own majority to settle it to $61 billion and walked away with $38 billion, a lot of which was smoke and mirrors, as a couple of people noted from Kevin Drum’s article (this quote is from an article by AP reporter Andrew Taylor):
Kevin Drum writes:
http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum
Tom Q
@Napoleon: Absolutely. We have a presidential year electorate and a midterm electorate, and the gulf between them is wide enough to create swings simply based on number of down-ballot votes.
What Dems need to do is find a way to beef up their midterm turnout, so they’re not constantly playing this game. It’ll help of course just not being at 10% unemployment every time. But it’ll also take some help from time and demographics — the older, most-resistant-to-Obama group will thin out with each election, and the decisively-Dem youth vote will age enough to (by historical patterns) become more regular voters (as well as swelling at the lower end), which will eventually make it less of a tightrope getting through midterms.
arguingwithsignposts
@blahblahblah: Listen to me very closely, blahblahblah: go. fuck. yourself.
Seriously. Go. Fuck. Yourself. And when your Monster Raving Looney Party doesn’t win and seats a majority GOP senate and a wingnut president, I will personally encourage my children to punch you in the fucking neck.
stuckinred
@blahblahblah: accidentally like a martyr
Dennis SGMM
Oh for fuck’s sake, use your heads. The Dems will be defending at least 22 Senate seats in 2012. They will be doing that in the face of an onslaught of corporate cash while trying to re-elect a president on whose watch unemployment has remained well above eight percent.
The commenters here can and will offer up any number of explanations why it’s not Obama’s fault. Fair enough. The people who don’t read this or any other blog are going to vote their pocketbooks and they’re going to blame those in charge. Not only are many Americans haunted by the possibility of losing their jobs, they’re also looking at stagnant wages while food and energy prices are going higher every day. You can tell me that it isn’t Obama’s fault. Don’t tell me, tell the voters who returned the Republicans to a House majority just two years after their policies and practices crashed the economy.
I recall the crowing from some here when the Democrats retook the House. There are still folks who are predicting that the GOP will go the way of the Whigs. Wake the fuck up!
It’s the Democrats who are allowing themselves to bargain away their relevancy. The Republicans may be crazy but they’re winning.
Dr. Squid
Speaking of “pandering”, here’s WyldPirate pandering to the firebaggers…
Especially since nearly all of what was “whacked” was accounting tricks. I guess you didn’t read that because it doesn’t fit your pandering to morons.
HyperIon
@PeakVT:
yeah, that’s my take.
HooCoodaNode that republicans would act like douchebags?
Calouste
@Violet:
“Bring out the Timp.”
“Timp’s sleeping.”
“Well, I guess you’re gonna have to go wake him up now, won’t you?”
Joe Beese
NPR explained that Obama now regrets that vote.
At which I could only laugh, “I bet he does.”
HyperIon
@piratedan:
an election is held tomorrow.
so bupkis.
kay
@Elia Isquire:
I just don’t know that it matters that Epstein and Paul take two different routes to the same place.
It matters if you’re marketing libertarianism, I guess. Epstein’s is nicer and much more scenic…
Corner Stone
@Dennis SGMM:
My personal opinion of a best case scenario for the Senate is a gain of +2 for R’s, so it’s 51D to 49R.
And I think that is the rosiest of all possible outcomes.
Elia Isquire
@Elia Isquire: *your. god i’m tired.
Bisquits
Great. So now the independents want the sheet cleaners back. I give up.
Elia Isquire
@kay: Wait are you sure about this? Epstein argues in the piece that Rand is wrong to say the VRA was against his principles. Epstein thinks it’s supportable from a libertarian standpoint. He’s ga-ga for article II or w/e in it in specific. (Haven’t read the piece in a few weeks.)
HyperIon
@CaliCat:
Is this actually a serious question?
It’s DougJ, you moron.
lahru
The Republicans have proven the theory of:
“I can’t believe how much my parents have learned in the past ___ years”
Immaturity always loses to maturity. They, like all children always come around.
doofus
@Hermione Granger-Idiotley: How have I come to agree with Hemione Chan so much lately (Ed K fascination notwithstanding)?
eemom
imo only exceedingly stupid and/or self-deluded people think they can predict what’s gonna happen in the House or Senate in 2012.
I name no names, of course.
Joe Beese
Let’s say for the sake of argument that Obama, acting with noble intention and crafty brilliance, did fool those dumb-ass Republicans into accepting paltry cuts.
They’re still cuts. And consensus seems to be that cutting is not going to help the economy.
Real unemployment is 20%. Maybe it will go down to 15% by election time.
On that day, the Democrats are going to need a lot more than “The Republicans are worse”.
WyldPirate
@Dennis SGMM:
Most of the Obots here can’t use their heads. They’re stuck too far up their own ass when they aren’t so goddamned busy defending even the slightest criticism of Obama by hurling insults instead of considering the simple facts and the history that you laid out (and that I did as well) on this subject.
Even Cole does it…whines about the least criticism, then turns around and pisses and moans because Obama is continuing the butt-fucking stupid war in Afghanistan.
HyperIon
@eemom wrote:
yes!
but that doesn’t prevent commentors and front pagers here from blathering on.
Uncle Clarence Thomas
.
.
Never fear, President Obama has GOT this. And if he doesn’t have it, his memoir will reflect the fact that although he now mildly regrets his actions as President and Commander in Chief, those greedy women, infants and children – ingrates all – needed a wake-up call to tighten their belts, and those public-spirited rich people needed all the public’s money, so really it’s all good and Fistorical no matter which way you look at it.
.
.
eemom
there’s a strange new FPer “upstairs.”
Splitting Image
I said a few times last year that we were in 1982 headed for 1984. Now we’re in 1983 headed for 1984.
I think it’s reasonable to predict that the Democrats will hold the White House, gain the House of Representatives, and lose the Senate, but don’t forget that in 2006 they successfully defended every single seat they had in Congress.
It’s hard to say what will happen since so much depends on who wins the Presidential nomination. I think that if the G.O.P. thinks that they have a real chance to unseat Obama, they will shovel money into the Presidential race and starve the House candidates (especially the more embarrassing members of the teabag caucus). If they think the Presidential race is a total loss, then they will let the sacrificial lamb fend for himself and put money into the Congressional races.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of the big money returns to the Democratic party next year if the teabaggers push too hard to default on the debt. The financial industry holds a ton of that debt and they would have to be real idiots to let the teabaggers get their hands on the trigger. Mind you, a lot of them are idiots, so there’s that….
In short, it’s too early to tell.
Uncle Clarence Thomas
@Sko Hayes:
.
.
Kevin Drum also writes –
Kevin, you should trust me instead. I’m smarter, better informed, and better able to understand the consequences of actions, and more farsighted than both of you put together. (And better looking and more eloquent. But don’t vote for me, as I’m not running for anything this year or next, and if elected I will not serve.) Also too, I know a cure for Obotulism.
.
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eemom
@Splitting Image:
yeah. That.
Emma
blahblahblah: I hope to God you are (1)unmarried or (2)rich or (3)really well insured. Because after the Republicans really get control of government due to the splitting of the so-called Democratic vote, you will enjoy living in the Bladerunner universe.
blahblahblah
@arguingwithsignposts:
http://media.moddb.com/images/members/1/301/300492/this-sign-has-sharp-edges.jpg
S. cerevisiae
Timp! LOL. I can’t believe he is really delusional enough to think he has a chance. He wouldn’t even win Minnesota, which he tried his damndest to turn into cold Mississippi.
He makes Romney look hip and exciting.
TooManyJens
@blahblahblah:
Funny, that’s what the Republicans always say.
S. cerevisiae
@Emma: Bladerunner? We can only hope it’s that nice. It’s looking more Soylent Green every day.
emma
S. cerevisiae: What can I say? I’m still holding on to a shred of optimism.
Cacti
@WyldPirate:
Did you wear your Nathan Bedford Forrest costume in honor of the 150th anniversary of Fort Sumter?
Sly
Insurance Company Protection Act? Obama voucherizing Medicare? Outsourcing the IRS? “Rethuglicans”?
What, is Democratic Underground down for maintenance and the He-Man Obama Haters’ Club had to temporarily relocate?
bago
@Comrade DougJ: Dead Hollywood Stars is an awesome ambient band.
Glen Tomkins
Skill set mismatch
Boehner may indeed be better at winning legislative battles with the Ds than Gingrich, because he’s more pragmatic. But the irony is that by winning this latest battle over the budget he has unleashed the sort of ideological crazy that only a crazy like Gingrich could stay on top of.
The polls are saying that 62% of the voters think the debt ceiling should not be raised. Well, of course they don’t understand the implications. They’ve been carried away by the victory Boehner just won, which they interpret to mean that both parties now agree that deficit reduction is a hair-on-fire emergency. Of course they don’t think we should be acquiring more debt. We just had that battle. Debt reduction won! Didn’t it? Both parties agree that we are lowering the debt, right? This budget deal lowers the national debt, right?
How is a pragmatist like Boehner going to explain that no, we have to raise the debt limit, pronto? How does he explain that to his crazies, who know the budget deal’s impact on the deficit is trivial, but who want the immediate massive spending reductions a failure to raise the limit would require? How does he pull that off with the the electorate his side bamboozled into thinking that his side won the battle of Budget Armageddon, the debt’s being reduced anyway, who the hell needs to increase the limit?
Boehner’s such a brilliant tactician that he outsmarted himself. He’s lost control of his crazies and the electorate’s expectations by being so brilliant at bamboozlement that both of these groups have completely unrealistic expectations. I doubt that he could stop the refusal to up the debt limit no matter how hard he tried at this late date.
Gingrich would know what to do with the moment. He couldn’t get to this moment of the fall of all the limits and boundaries of the conventional order of politics because he wasn’t a very good parliamentary tactician, he wasn’t very pragmatic. But he’ld know how to run with it once obtained. No, he wouldn’t be able to stop the rush to the refusal to up the debt ceiling either. He wouldn’t want to. He would use it for the revolution he always craved but wasn’t able to get to.
Mnemosyne
@Dennis SGMM:
And he’ll be running against the same guys who’ve managed to do exactly jack shit about jobs or the economy since they were elected, other than pass symbolic bills and announce their plans to kill Medicare. And the ones who have managed to do something — like the governors who are trying to kill unions — have pissed off large parts of the electorate.
I know American memories are short, but I seriously doubt that the Republicans are going to be able to turn it around as much as you seem to think given the total disaster just the past four months has been for them. Unless you somehow see them managing to right themselves and govern in a sane, rational fashion for the next 18 months?
RIRedinPA
The GOP/Tea Party/FOX news party is guilty of a classic case of over reaching and not understanding their mandate in the same way Obama and the Dems did not in 2008. Here’s what the American people wanted:
1. Reduce unemployment.
2. Get my home value back to somewhere close to 2006 values
3. Save my 401K plan
What they didn’t vote for. Hollowing out the middle class even more. Propping up the plutocracy even further. Trying to make higher education unaffordable. They latched onto the meme of reducing the deficit (which in general the average American doesn’t give a shit about) in a misguided understanding that if they voted a politician in who would do that it would fix the three items above.
Instead what they did is vote in some of the most hard core of the right wing, whose goals have nothing to do with the three items listed above and everything to do with reversing this country to a pre-1920 status set.
And now they (the American public) are all freaking out because you’ve got Republican governors across the nation gutting higher and grade level education funding whilst giving even more tax breaks to corporations and the wealthy. Call it a Tea Party hangover.
They thought they were getting this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-CbF7yyV8M&feature=related
And instead they got this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTU2He2BIc0
Yo yo, where my WASP at… : D