I don’t know what to make of the gap between the “serious Republican candidates” and the Palinese Liberation Army. Steve M. describes it well:
The more I watch Republican voters go for one set of candidates and reporters and GOP pros go for another set, the more it seems I’m in the Arts & Leisure section reading another critic’s rave for Meek’s Cutoff while the mass moviegoing audience is flocking to Thor, or learning about the latest blog-buzz band from Brooklyn with an 8.8 rating from Pitchfork that has a tiny fraction of Lady Gaga’s following and will never have anything resembling mass success.
It was also clear that we were dealing with elite rather than mass taste last week when we read that Mitch Daniels was attempting to launch his campaign by schmoozing the likes of Josh Marshall and Hendrik Herzberg at a Bloomberg-connected venue in Manhattan. If you polled the crowd at that soiree and asked about a favorite TV series, surely it would be Mad Men, not Two and a Half Men. Go to dinner with this folks? You’re a lot more likely to be dealing with molecular gastronomy practiced on locally sourced produce by tattooed prep cooks with Top Chef dreams than you are to wind up at the proverbial salad bar at Applebee’s.
I know the search for “acceptable,” “serious” candidates is being conducted in part by big-money types, which ought to mean that they’ll get their way eventually — but I’m not sure how that’s going to happen when Rupert Murdoch is putting his big money into promoting the likes of Donald Trump (particularly last month) and Herman Cain (more recently).
I don’t know this will play out. Republican primary voters usually did as they were told…until 2010. All of the “serious candidates” are flawed, but the Bachmanns and Trumps are even more flawed.
Am I wrong to think that Huck could win it if he was in it?
mclaren
As I’ve pointed out repeatedly, the Republican presidential nomination is Sarah Palin’s if she wants it. Her kids’ name recognition is orders of magnitude higher than any of the current Republican presidential primary candidates.
This isn’t Thor vs Meek’s Cutoff, it’s Transformers 2 clobbering The Road.
David
Gingrich to Announce Candidacy Wednesday
Just Some Fuckhead
President Huckabee, a fat arkansan with rabbit teeth, former Southern Baptist Preacher, current talk show host? Sure he could win.. if he was running against Jerry Springer.
My money is still on Mitt’s money.
fhtagn
@efgoldman:
Technically said job numbers just went down. We are back at 9% unemployment.
If I were Obama, I’d worry about Huckabee or Romney, the rest, not so much. If Palin got the nomination I’d go down on my knees and thank the Flying Spaghetti Monster for letting the GOP bolognese it up so amazingly obviously.
FlipYrWhig
I think The Plan (Koch plus Priebus) was to get Scott Walker into the first tier of contenders, a fresh face who broke the leech-like public sector in a heartland state that Obama won. Luckily progressive Wisconsin made that difficult to pull off. Now they can’t figure out what to do instead.
Yutsano
@Just Some Fuckhead:
I still am waiting for a clear glide path for a Mormon to get past the God-botherers. Trust me that is a HUGE deal with them.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
Here a big variable to throw into the mix this time: in past campaigns marginal candidates were culled from the herd when the big money men turned the spigot off. Go ahead and rant all you want, but none of it will be on the TV because you can’t afford the airtime. That in part is how the “conventional wisdom” controlled who got to be the nominee and who never had a chance.
What we don’t know is, will the Dean2004/Obama2008 small donor fundraising model jump over to the GOP side in 2012, and what effect will this have on the conventional money spigot model above? Those who are familiar with the details of Obama’s 2008 run know that you have to start with a large base of seed money raised from conventional sources before you can prime the small-donor pump. But once the latter gets going, how do you force a candidate out of the race if they don’t want to give up yet and neither do their small donors?
I think from now on the primaries are going to be much more extended attritional affairs because it will be much harder to force candidates out of the race, especially for the more ideologically committed candidates most likely to attract small donor support. Expect to see something we haven’t seen in a long time: a GOP race that still hasn’t been decisively settled prior to June, and possibly all the way to the convention.
Comrade Javamanphil
@efgoldman:
They don’t have to hope. They’ve seen the lineup card. Even the most serious of the candidates is deeply crazy (“I’d double Gitmo!”) Sadly, the media seems all too happy to continue defining craziness down.
Doug Harlan J
@efgoldman:
I’m not so sure, the economy is terrible now.
I have to admit, I find the Democratic party less and less interesting these days. They’re just a reasonably sane, reasonably competent (I know they fuck a lot of things up, but sorry, folks, find me another party anywhere in the world that consistently puts up leaders with the intelligence of Clinton Gore, and Obama the last 20 years), neoliberal, moderately corporatist party. Snore….
Republicans are going through something crazy right now. Will it give birth to some new kind of party or will it just die? I don’t know.
Zifnab
If Huck could get the money that Romney or Pawlenty has, he could run a serious race. I’m honestly not clear WHY he doesn’t have access to the big money crowd, though. Did he piss of the bankers as Arkansas governor or thumb his nose at Wall Street and we all just missed it?
The guy’s got a show on FOX, so you know he can be bought. He was more than happy to play the “Piss of the Clintons” game back in the 90s when he pardoned that rapist that attacked a Clinton relative.
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/mike-huckabee-clemency-freed-maurice-clemmons-washington-cop-shooter-suspect/story?id=9207095
He’s got the religious vote. He’s got the old white guy vote. What magic is Huckabee missing that other GOP candidates seem to have?
Without financial backing, Huckabee’s as dead in the water as Ron Paul. But I think he could definitely make it in ’12 if he could get the right people at his back.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Yutsano:
The godbotherers will vote for ANY Republican over a socialist Muslim Kenyan usurper. McCain proved you don’t need the evangelical right to win the nomination. And now you got even more godbotherers slicing up the evangelical vote so Romney is actually sitting better than 2008.
Chris
In my opinion, yes. He’s already had “soft on crime” and “soft on immigration” dirty laundry thrown at him, both of which are major turn-offs for the base. And his “Wall Street versus Main Street” rhetoric doesn’t inspire confidence for the big money donors either, who’re afraid he might follow his own lights more than they’re comfortable with.
Without a solid lock on the base or the money, Huckabee’s got a hell of an uphill battle to fight.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Yutsano:
The godbotherers will vote for ANY Republican over a socia1ist Muslim Kenyan usurper. McCain proved you don’t need the evangelical right to win the nomination. And now you got even more godbotherers slicing up the evangelical vote so Romney is actually sitting better than 2008.
Napoleon
My hat is off to you on that one.
As for Huck he is the one potential candidate that I think could seriously clean Obama’s clock, not just beat him. He comes off very very reasonable and likable (I am not saying he is, just that he seems that way).
fhtagn
@Comrade Javamanphil:
Romney isn’t crazy per se. Terminally spineless and prone to rotate in the wind syndrome, but not crazy. Huckabee’s a much more genuinely nasty piece of work IMHO.
Napoleon
@Zifnab:
He is the only one that sometimes mildly veers off into semi-populit positions (not faux populist positions like a Palin) and I think that cost him.
fhtagn
@Napoleon:
He is, until you look at the things he’s actually said and done. Huckabee has a lot of form in terms of bigotry and ignorance.
Zifnab
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
Republican political guys own the nomination process. There’s all sorts of funny business that go down at the state-wide caucus, and Republicans can be twice as vicious towards primary voters picking the wrong Republican as they are towards minorities picking the Democrat.
The Ron Paul campaign repeatedly shat kittens during the ’08 election in states like Washington and Louisiana, where the state party chairmen basically told Paul-supporters to fuck off during voting.
Once the party at large decides on a candidate, the competition is going to be quickly and quietly ushered off stage so the base can be primed to support the Chosen One.
fhtagn
@Napoleon:
He is, until you look at the things he’s actually said and done. Huckabee has a lot of form in terms of bigotry and ignorance.
Bob Loblaw
So is Steve M. consciously parroting the “effete coastal elites out of touch with the heartland voters” meme as a turnabout divide and conquer tactic, or is this thing just so ingrained that people don’t even realize they’re doing it anymore?
jacy
@Zifnab:
I think Huckleberry once said something about helping the poor, so, yeah.
Comrade Javamanphil
@fhtagn: Blind ambition with no guiding value system in pursuit of power is crazy enough for me.
fhtagn
@Napoleon:
I suspect that the big money crowd aren’t too keen on the religious kook crowd. There are obvious exceptions, but for the most part the big money boys seem to be into economic extortion, not Deep-fried Jeebus-style Sharia Wingnutocracy.
jacy
@fhtagn:
That’s always been my take. Once that mask slips in public, it’s going to be hard to re-affix it.
Zifnab
@Napoleon: @jacy: Yeah, but that’s just part of his act. I mean, George Bush preached Compassionate Conservative as his campaign’s living gospel in ’00 and the GOP fundraising base could throw money at him fast enough.
It’s got to be more than just stuff he’s said.
fhtagn
@Comrade Javamanphil:
I do wonder sometimes whether Romney 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 are going to have a screaming schizophrenic, self-wrestling bitch-fight at one of the debates as the world looks on.
Jay in Oregon
Palinese Liberation Army
…needs to become a BJ tag, pronto.
Corner Stone
@Doug Harlan J:
They willingly allowed themselves to be maneuvered to where the money is. And with the long term focused pressure, wealth inequality has left only one avenue open.
All part of the plan.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Zifnab:
But I don’t think the old magic is going to work like that any more, because cutting off the supply of money was one of the strongest ways (in addition to the sort of procedural chicanery you are talking about) to get people to shut up and “go quietly under that good bus” (to borrow DougJ’s priceless metaphor). And if an outsider candidate can get the small-donor money engine primed and running early in the cycle, then I don’t see any way of getting that person to shut up and go away. Hell, the GOPers don’t even listen to Karl Rove any more.
Chris
@Doug Harlan J:
It was my most fervent hope in 2009 that the Tea Party Movement would do the same thing for the right that the New Left did for our side of the aisle – that is, go too far for the American people and cause a move towards the other side of the aisle in reaction to that.
Here’s hoping.
Just Some Fuckhead
I was hoping Virgil Goode would capture the Republican nomination for President and then pick Pawlenty as his Veep. How awesome would a Goode & Pawlenty ticket be?
ChrisS
It scares me to death as to what will happen if a nutjob republican takes over the presidency with willing judicial and congressional wings.
Tax cuts for the rich, double defense spending, cut medicare and social security, illegal to form unions, no new money to renewable energy. All fossil fuels and indentured servitude.
Fuck, and I just started feeling better.
fhtagn
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
Right. That’s really the only reason that Ron Paul is still around nationally – he’s got a base of unusually young activists for the GOP and they fork over cash. That said, he doesn’t have anyway of building a bridge to the mainstream authentically crazies, which is why the bosses can politely ignore him and quietly put the fix in at local level.
Cris (without an H)
Agreed. That whole passage DougJ quoted reads just like Bobo’s “red staters drive like this, blue staters drive like this” schtick.
Chris
@ChrisS:
And imagine what being Muslim in this country will be like once the Republican Party post-Park51Gate is back in the saddle.
fhtagn
@Chris:
Well, they seem to have gone partway down that road in Ohio and Wisconsin, so I suspect that a bit more national exposure might get the job done.
The Moar You Know
Yes, you are wrong. The moneymen loathe Huck.
Doug Harlan J
@Jay in Oregon:
I can’t remember where I read it.
aimai
@fhtagn:
They want those votes but they don’t want to pay those voters off with anything that costs money. Thanks to years of uniting Galt and Jesus, however, those heartland voters are not only willing to refuse public funds to educate their own children, they are also willing to refuse funds to pay for Grandma.
One of my internet acquaintances, a lunatic natalist religious crank with eight children and a passion for homeschooling just had her home and all her friends and family’s homes destroyed in the tornado. Was she every jesus blessed pleased to be able to tell those evil FEMA people to take a hike? Her advice: love god and join a really good church! This is going to help even her friend with the 13 children whose husband was killed in the tornado. These people remind me of the line “I could hire half the working class to kill the other half” which is the upper class version of “the capitalist will sell us the rope to hang him.” But its basically the case: there are tons of voters who will willingly sabotage themselves and their children for the sake of avoiding government entanglements and the notion that the government might help someone else. Small government for them means low taxes for their corporate masters. But they don’t get that.
aimai
Doug Harlan J
@Cris (without an H):
It does, I admit, but I think it’s actually applicable here. Aw shucks midwesterner kicks off your campaign with a bunch of rich journalists on the Upper East Side?
fhtagn
@The Moar You Know:
But that’s where the issue of small donors and the internet might just make the difference. Huckabee’s got a lot of name recognition, and if Palin buggers off home to Moosefart he’s also got the religulous right rabble demographic sewn up. They cough up happily enough to maintain James Dobson at a svelte 300 pounds of curviness, so I imagine that Huck will find plenty of coppers in his begging-bowl, if he wants them.
nepat
As a Republican friend put it to me this weekend when I questioned him about supporting any of the crazies if they should get nominated: anybody but Obama. Repubs would vote for a potted plant if it had an “R” next to its name. The Obama hate is all they’ve got and all they apparently need.
NonyNony
@Zifnab:
Try here.
Money graf:
He advocated raising taxes to pay for stuff. This makes him WORSE THAN HITLER as far as Grover Norquist is concerned.
And that’s why the big money guys don’t like him – he once had the idea that the government should do something other than funnel money into the pockets of the big money guys. That’s dangerous – you never know when you’re going to accidentally elect someone whose conscience or sense of responsibility or sense of decency might lead them to do something unforgivable – like raise taxes. Better to make sure you’ve found politicians who have no conscience, no responsibility, and for God’s sake no sense of decency! Too much risk otherwise.
Napoleon
@fhtagn:
Bigoty? Really? You may be right on that I just do not recall hearing anything.
As for ignorance, no doubt.
Every one of them carries some kind of weird burdan that you typically don’t see, but IMO he is the only one of the bunch that really is a natural and if any of them can talk their way out of their problems he is the one that impresses me could do it.
fhtagn
@aimai:
Does she have a Plan B for the tornado that turns the church into matchwood? The Flying Spaghetti Monster might just be losing patience.
Original Lee
A neighbor who is deeply into Conservadom (without going total wingnut – his wife handles that part for him) recently posted on FB that he believes 2012 will be an “Anybody But” election. He has no opinion he’s willing to make public yet on the GOP nominee. He just believes that the person being sworn in come January 2013 will be whoever is the least offensive to the electorate. He was ready to vote for McCain until Palin was selected as the VP candidate, so I consider him a good weathervane on this kind of stuff.
WereBear
@jacy: This is where Huck’s minister status works against him; I believe he’s a sick individual who puts on a show.
But the money folks don’t trust anyone who just might have someone else’s interests at heart.
Napoleon
@Zifnab:
I don’t think it is an act. Of all of them I think with him he comes closest to being the same person in private. I actually think that is one of the 3 reasons he is holding off getting in, that as crazy as he seems he actually will not say whatever he has to say to win. The other two are he is making too much at Fox and this looks like a year when there is a decent chance the Rep gets his clock cleaned.
Sly
Pawlenty would probably beat him after Iowa.
Both are Christ Humpers with a shit-eating-grin that conjures up images of Gomer Pyle. But Huckabee occasionally mentions the fact that poor people actually exist and that we should maybe do something about it through the Federal state. Pawlenty also acknowledges that poverty exists, but his solution is that everyone should just shop at Sam’s Club and shut the fuck up about it.
One of these people will not get the support of both the rubes and the money boys.
cckids
@Napoleon:
I don’t think he could beat Obama, but he very well might come the closest. He can turn on the folksy “charm” & seem like one of the guys, he can talk the Jesus talk the primary voters like, he’s comfortable on TV, he can lie quite well without blinking once. In short, he has some of the best political talents of both W. and Bill Clinton. Even my 18-year old, who thinks all Republicans & capital “C” Xtians are lying scumbags, admits that Huck “seems sane for a Repub”.
Still think Obama would clean his clock. Imagine the debates.
Culture of Truth
I agree with the above. My money is on Mitt, with Huck in second place.
fhtagn
@Napoleon:
Google Mike Huckabee and gay/gays or AIDS sometime. I think you’ll find that our loving Christian former governor has all your bigotry needs covered.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/12/mike-huckabee-compares-sa_n_534432.html
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1207/7270.html
Chris
@Napoleon:
Well (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Mike_Huckabee#Israel), the man’s called for the ethnic cleansing of the West Bank, which is a line even most American politicians won’t cross. So yeah, “bigot” would seem perfectly accurate.
Somebody here once said that under the right circumstances, Huckabee’s the kind of person they could picture loading Christians onto cattle cars. Based on the West Bank record, I can’t disagree.
WereBear
I am acquainted with the subgenre who thinks this way, so I am merely staggered, not gobsmacked.
Culture of Truth
I don’t see either beating Obama, although I think Mitt could in a severely down economy.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Culture of Truth:
Huck isn’t running. The possibility of losing to a black man will set the Southern White Man back another 150 years.
fhtagn
@Sly:
Pawlenty has the charisma of a cardboard toad and a record of pretending to care about climate change. Huckabee would simply crush him. That’s before we even start talking about collapsing bridges.
Culture of Truth
Of course GOP loyalists will vote for the nominee. But I don’t see so-called independents voting for any of them, except maybe Mitt.
eemom
@fhtagn:
OT, but toko-loko is running amok again on the “Flying” thread below. Just in case you wanted to step in.
You do seem able to, um, cow her better than the rest of us, haw haw.
JC
Jobs jobs jobs. Although the ‘recovery’ is happening, in fits and starts, very weak, and really, 9% unemployment is inexcusable. If the Rethugs ‘win’ in their efforts to take a hatchet to government jobs – federal, state, local – along with all of the preaching for deficit reduction – minimizing jobs again – it is probable that unemployment will still be over 8% next June.
Unemployment needs to be under 8% – or even better, under 7% – or all bets are off on Obama’s re-election.
Obama’s personal effectiveness as a candidate, his intelligence, charisma, and competence, and the general horribleness of the GOP field, cushion Obama’s vulnerability quite a bit.
But the unemployment rate under 7% insures his election – barring unforeseen disaster.
fhtagn
@eemom:
What is Her Insanity’s latest gibberation? Was she goosed by the invisible hand of ED Kain in her sleep?
PurpleGirl
Didn’t Huckabee recently say that he wished he force everyone to listened to David Barton on American history and at gunpoint!
He’s a crazy.
ETA: In case you’ve forgotten who Barton is, he’s Glenn Back’s favorite Christianist historian.
Joel
@fhtagn: To that effect, Huckabee is the reason why Romney is toxic with the debase. He was spouting the anti-Mormon gospel (off the record) for a long time in anticipation of the 2008 presidential primaries.
scav
@fhtagn: She really is the ultimate tetherball isn’t she? She equates being batted around with being a active participant in play.
Redshift
@Cris (without an H): Yeah, as long as you willfully misread it to say that it’s referring to “elites” geographically (which it mentions nowhere) rather than actual elites.
Conservatives constantly refer to anyone they don’t like, no matter how humble their beginnings, as “elites,” but that doesn’t mean that elites don’t exist or that it’s impossible to use the word correctly in political analysis. Do you honestly think the “elites” in this piece were intended to include the general East-Coast Republican voter?
Jay in Oregon
@Doug Harlan J:
Well, Firedoglake uses it a few times and links back to a post you did in April of 2010, but they cite this post at Rumproast as the earliest occurrence.
(Noting for the future BJ Lexicon entry…)
Chris
@Just Some Fuckhead:
I take it then that no one here thinks Gingrich has what it takes to get the nomination?
RossInDetroit
@JC:
It’s true that confidence in the economy has a big impact on the voters, but the recession can be laid at the feet of the GOP. This hampers their ability to beat up Obama over it and if played properly gives the Dems some leverage to fight back.
Steve M.
@Bob Loblaw:It was conscious. I thought I was nodding and winking enough to make that obvious, but I guess not.
I thought it was amusing that they’re always slagging us for alleged arugula-eating elitism, and now here are the GOP bigwigs acting elitist relative to their own voters.
Corner Stone
@Chris:
Heck no. Just further padding the Grifter Resume.
Tom Q
@JC: You are aware that the unemployment rate in January 1984 — when Reagan was already viewed as unbeatable by most — was 8%, and even post-election it only dropped as far as 7.2%. That was not only viewed as a recovery…it was Morning in Fucking America.
I don’ think it’s any individual number, so much as the direction. Reagan had it moving the right way; for the moment Obama does, too.
ChrisS
@JC:
The economy isn’t coming back to anything remotely like 5% unemployment. 10% is about as good as it’ll get. I’m not Krugman, but maybe when the baby boomers start retiring in droves. However, since a chunk of their wealth has been wiped out in the financial armageddon of 2008, combined with rising food, energy, and healthcare costs, and further combined with future cuts to medicare/social security/social services … I wonder how many of them will retire before 70.
Redshift
@Napoleon: I’ve read that Huckabee is really, really greedy. As in he and his family made off with everything from the governor’s mansion they could carry that had been an official gift to him as governor, and we now know that all his official financial records were ordered destroyed when he left office.
Given that, and the fact that he’s not dumb, I think he sees that no Republican’s chances are great against an incumbent who’s more popular than Reagan was at this point (as opposed to the open election in 2016), losing would damage his brand, and he’s making a bundle at Fox.
Ash Can
@eemom:
Either that kid has way too many study halls, or her teachers don’t assign nearly as much homework as they should. Or both.
jacy
@Chris:
That was me. (although it was non-christians — slip of the keyboard).
But, yeah, when I think of Huckabee, that’s the image that always pops into my mind. He’s a true believer of the worst sort, the kind that can convince himself that they only way he can “save” you is by destroying you. I also think that’s why the big money guys truly shy away. While Bush talked a good evangelical game, everybody knew he was an empty jug waiting to be filled. The only thing Bush every truly believed in was his own entitlement. Who knows what Huckabee would do? I have the feeling that the voice of “god” he hears whispering in his ear could talk him into about anything.
fhtagn
@Ash Can:
I thought she claimed to be a grad student?
Redshift
@ChrisS: I don’t think that’ll be it. Apparently the common-sense idea that encouraging people to retire opens up more jobs for younger people is a well-known fallacy in economics; it doesn’t actually work that way.
The economy will come back to something like 5% unemployment, it’ll just take a long time. Trust me, you can easily look up statements just like yours from various economic crashes including the Great Depression, wondering if the economy has altered somehow to make 10% unemployment a new permanent normal state, and it never happens.
Elie
@Yutsano:
Totally agree there… that is NOT a sure thing at all.
Ash Can
@fhtagn: I suppose it’s possible for a grad student to be that immature and obtuse, but I have a hard time taking her word for that.
aimai
War Time President. War Time President. War Time President.
One of the big issues last time around was whether Obama (or Hillary) could pass the “war time president with gravitas gravy” standard. Well, that’s off the table as an issue post OBL’s death. If the debates are all about social issues or the economy that’s bad for Obama (possibly) but if there is any other major international issue on the nation’s mind there simply isn’t anyone on the Republican side who passes the war time president with gravitas on top standard–not of the mini humans they are offering the crazy base. Mittens and the other executive types will look like they can stand tall behind a podium but one or two questions will show them to be completely faking it while Obama will be able to do that cool “while I was talking to my dear friend X…” or “while I was killing America’s enemies yesterday” routine.
aimai
Chris
@jacy:
Ah, sweet! Thanks for catching the “Christian” slip.
I saw him very much the same way during the 2008 campaign, which is why I remembered your quote. And I also agree that that’s why the money isn’t following him – they want puppets, not actual true believers (whatever the belief is). For once, the corporate-crony nature of politics will have done some good.
catclub
@Chris: The actual evidence, however, is that when they are in power they are slightly more sane and reasonable.
Still bad, still will fuck up the EPA and banking regulation for their actual bosses, but I would guess there would be fewer anti-sharia type laws passed if they owned all three branches. Here’s hoping it does not come to that.
Culture of Truth
Newt? No. What’s his base? Total assholes?
Brachiator
The GOP primary or the presidency? Who knows?
Recent news stories indicate that Big GOP money is holding back, unsure which horse to bet on in this race. And Village reporting is either leaning towards Mittens, or to anyone who is tall, pretty, professorial, and “very serious.”
You know, kinda like Obama, but lily white.
What GOP voters think about this, especially fundamentalists and Tea Party people, is unknown because neither the Village nor the Money cares what they think, and are convinced that they will meekly go along with whoever is put before them.
geg6
@fhtagn:
Actually, you are not quite correct. Jobs numbers are up and up in a big way (by current standards, anyway). April saw more private sector jobs created than at any time since at least 2007, if not earlier. Unemployment is also up. How can that be? Well, the unemployment numbers for last month include many thousands of formerly discouraged unemployed who quit searching for work and who have no jumped back into the job market due the higher job numbers the last several months. Unemployment and the jobs numbers are two different sets of data and aren’t really related in the way you seem to think.
Roger Moore
@Culture of Truth:
I don’t know. I think there’s a big enough divide between the sane and crazy wings of the party that they could lose votes if they pick a candidate who can’t appeal to both. A truly crazy candidate might drive some of the sane Republicans to vote for Obama, or even to a sane looking third party candidate. An insufficiently crazy candidate might cause the crazies to stay home or vote for a truly wacko third party candidate.
ChrisS
@Redshift:
I hope so. I’m employed and by the looks of our contracts … we’re going to be busy for the near future (environmental remediation). HOWEVER … the bulk of our work is state or federally contracted (though the funding is often extracted from private corporations through either lawsuit, tax collection [Superfund], or as a stipulation of remedial compliance). I can’t imagine what could happen to a fitful economy when the Paul Ryan plan is passed. More teachers laid off, decreasing tax revenues, more state workers axed, less money into the system … etc.
I haven’t been very hopeful over the last few weeks … especially with rising energy prices. But prices do matter and will go a long way in reducing our consumption habits.
quaint irene
Story today about how ‘serious’ conservative donors are courting Chris Christie as president material. Just as well, he sure as hell isn’t going to get re-elected as governor here!
Culture of Truth
@Roger Moore: That’s an argument for nominating a non-crazy person. Sane republicans and moneyed voter will for the non-nut, and the far-right wackos can be persuaded to vote for the GOP nominee or Obama kidnap their children and take them to a vegan farm in Zambia.
geg6
@Zifnab:
Could be those dead cops in Washington. Just sayin’.
http://www.seattlepi.com/local/article/Huckabee-commuted-sentence-of-man-tied-to-police-890436.php
PurpleGirl
The number of people applying for a job at McDonald’s — 1 Million.
The number of people to be hired — 62,000.
We need good paying jobs, middle income paying jobs, not low wage service jobs.
PurpleGirl
@ChrisS: The Ryan Plan (the road to poverty) WAS passed by the House on April 15th. It now has to go to the Senate and who knows what happens there.
Cris (without an H)
@Steve M.: Thanks for clarifying.
Judas Escargot
@Doug Harlan J:
IMO this American need for our politics to be “interesting” (e.g. “exciting” and dramatic) is a BIG part of our problem: In a well-run, reality-based world, politics should be (barring the occasional event-driven crisis) about as exciting to the layman as accounting or lepidoptery.
I dream of an America with boring, boring politics.
catclub
@PurpleGirl: And Reid is promising it WILL come up for a vote. The GOP is considering filibustering that effort. They really, really do not want to carry the flag for the teahadists.
Comedy gold.
Elie
@PurpleGirl:
Yes, that is right, but I am not sure someone can just “do” that.
Job creation is a mixture of the status of the economy but also the nature of the population. We have, by world standards, a fairly not well educated populace that also has high income needs. Not good. Why do you think so many technical jobs have gone to India, Asia? Its not just because they are cheaper but because they are also more capable and therefore more efficient.
Jobs are linked to the education of our children and the current intelligence of our overall population, which is not good. We unfortunately right now, are great consumers but not that great at producing and until that changes, those high paying jobs we all want are just not going to be there in the same proportion that they once were…
We are a big, spread out country that has developed without thought to the convenience and cost of living the way we live. In Europe, people live in more high density situations and walk or take short public transportation commutes. That is a much cheaper way of living, also buying locally, than shlepping 2 hours in a commute with a car that you have to pay to par and use gas to do everything. All that has to come out of shrinking salaries.
Americans are no where near understanding the changes that they are going to need to make over the next x years. The days of whining about why we need to make more money is going to have to confront that we need to make many other changes to make the most of the incomes we receive and the fix is going to be very painful, IMHO.
Roger Moore
@catclub:
WTF. The Harry Reid who was so much fun to ridicule would never do something clever like force the Republicans to stand behind their crazy ideas in public. What have they done to the real Harry Reid, and why in hell didn’t they do it in January 2009?
Barry
@catclub: “The actual evidence, however, is that when they are in power they are slightly more sane and reasonable.”
Were were you in the past decade?
Elie
@Doug Harlan J:
What does that even mean?
I guess you miss the excitement of the Bushies and their world war against sanity? Need storm troopers at your door? Need some good sex scandals?
Whaaa?
JCT
@Roger Moore: What I’m wondering is if the Republicans are busy bargaining with Harry to try to stave off that vote.
PurpleGirl
Elie: My first impulse is to ask where have you been for at least the last two decades?
American manufacturers have been transferring operations overseas for years. I also know a number of computer people who cannot get jobs in their fields — all with up-to-date skills. But then they are older… what are they supposed to do?
We’ve been pushing education — especially college education for decades — and people are going into extreme debt for school. So I don’t see where we are less educated.
I know I have more to say to you… maybe later after I better form my thoughts.
ChrisS
@Elie:
Indeed and this is what truly frightens me … Americans will have zero money (thanks to public debt from foreign wars and tax cuts for the wealthy; increasing food & energy costs; and declining incomes) to pay for the transition to a lower level of consumption.
Cabbage soup, again?
Turgidson
@Culture of Truth:
Sadly, if that was his base he’d be a formidable candidate. But even assholes mostly think Newt is a giant douche.
gene108
@Zifnab:
He raised taxes while Governor of Arkansas. A sin the Norquist-wing of the GOP cannot forgive him for and whatever big money donors there are probably don’t want to get into a pissing contest with Club-for-Growthers about who they should steer their money towards.
MikeJ
@geg6: He’s also looking at the seasonally adjusted numbers. With the raw numbers, both u3 and u6 are down. Seasonally adjusted, both were slightly up.
Chris
@Turgidson:
I wonder. Do they object to him because he’s a giant douche (historically, that’s not really a turn-off for them) or because they remember him as the guy who failed to take down Clinton?
...now I try to be amused
I would think that Huck’s very own Willie Horton would torpedo a Presidential run sooner or later.
Sly
@fhtagn:
Does any part of the Republican constituency give a rat’s ass about collapsing bridges? And if Pawlenty has to run away from Cap and Trade, every candidate the large donors would endorse will have to follow his lead. Cap and Trade is fundamentally a conservative-oriented method for addressing the currently unaccountable costs of carbon emissions, and thus every “serious” Republican backed it. That is, they backed it until the Democratic Party also started backing it.
@Judas Escargot:
Barney Frank once remarked that “any candidate who tells you how much fun it is to run for office is either a liar or a psychopath,” which I think is one of the more insightful things the man has ever said, and thats saying something.
...now I try to be amused
@Roger Moore:
It seems that getting re-elected can change a Senator. First Lisa Murkowski, now Harry Reid.
Elie
@PurpleGirl:
Hey, relax. I am on your side.
Its not the formal education alone, but the eduction of those coming up behind and combined with the salary expectations to addres our lifestyle needs.
I am not at war with you or the need for solid good paying jobs. Just flagging some of the issues that are impacting that goal.
Do you think its just a matter of “someone” (presumably the President or the party in power), to just change that by edict or do you allow that there are some complex things happening?
Yes, jobs have been moving abroad for a long time. The types of jobs that are moving abroad have changed though. Initially we were still considered the high value workers and the menial, low skilled jobs went. Have you noticed however, that the nature of these jobs has changed over time and the jobs that are now leaving are those once considered sacrosanctly American. Its just a normal consequence of global competition. The top dog always gets pushed and has to respond to the challenge to stay on top. Staying on top is not in the control of one individual but decreed by the global demand and realities there. Like they say in sports, you have to adjust your game to beat an opponent who is also trying to win. Other countries also want their people to have good jobs and strong economies.
Of course its not absolute and not every good job is leaving. On balance however, we had better be aware that its going to take more and more of us individually and as a country to afford our lifestyles. Hopefully you will agree with that observation.
gene108
@Elie:
India?
India has at best 2/3 literacy rate, with only one state, Kerala claiming to have anything approaching the levels of literacy we have in the U.S.
Education in India, including higher education, is a big problem. Getting qualified people to teach at most colleges is hard, when you are trying to start up new colleges to meet the demands for an educated workforce.
I have a cousin, who after getting her bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering, became a lecturer at a four year engineering college.
I’m not saying my cousin is stupid, but the U.S. standard of a minimum of a master’s degree to teach at the collegiate level can’t be maintained in India, in terms of the qualifications of the professors.
Good article on the problems of getting qualified applicants for skilled jobs in India.
Flawed Miracle
To summarize: (1) grass is always greener on the other side and (2) America isn’t nearly as badly off as people want to make the U.S. out to be.
batgirl
Speaking just about my own (crazy) extended family, but my wealthy “moderate” Republicans/libertarians kin won’t touch Huckabee with a ten foot poll, but would definitely throw votes and money behind a Romney candidacy. And most of these kin voted for Obama. Palin scared the hell out of them. And voted for Bush II… and voted for Clinton — so yeah, a Romney candidacy, if he can make it through the primary, is a serious threat to Obama.
Elie
@ChrisS:
Americans have to wake up politically. They have stubbornly refused to and have been largely placated in that blindness by both parties. I’m afraid those scales are falling off the eyes…
One of the significant possible effects of this whole OBL thing and what is happening in the Mid East is the change of the dynamics for generating war. That said, if you read history at all, countries have gotten into significant problems with employment, social stability and their economies when they bring soldiers back from wars. That change to post war economic status has to be managed, not just flicked off or on as hundreds of thousands of young men are brought back into the overall society and economy. Think unemployment looks bad now? Think about adding 50 to 100K to that for men who might not have directly employable skills right this minute.
Everyone wants instant decisions and gratification of their various social and economic priorities. Unfortunately, easdy fixes without consequences have to be handled very carefully. What are the tradeoffs and how are we going to make them?
Obama and his crew are incredibly disciplined and strong but they take a beating day and night on many issues that people want immediate fixes for and seemingly have little capacity for what those real tradeoffs might be. THAT is what scares me. The changes we need to make are serious and will be accompanied by changes, not all of which will seem positive. An example of that was the hoo ha that accompanied the State of Massachusetts changing the benefit plans for public employees to match that offered to the rest of the population under their single payor system. That is a bona fide and necessary adjustment from multiple plans to the single system that we progressives all say that we want. Do we have the strength and awareness to do similar kinds of things in many different arenas? I dont know.
PurpleGirl
Elie: One thing that the President and Congress can change — if they want to — are the tax policies that encourage companies to shift jobs overseas. But in this political environment I don’t see that happening. Even if the tax code is reformed, I don’t see companies losing very much.
We built a society based on consumer spending, but with the way income is going, many, if not most, people won’t be able to even afford basic living expenses like food and housing. My one note rant… people who have no money left now are desperate and the safety net is frayed and can’t help them and we don’t know what to do or where to turn.
goblue72
Let’s not forget that McCain wasn’t the pick of the GOP Establisment money boys – Romney was. McCain won the nomination through wins in moderate states that ironically were solid blue states come electoral college votes – states like California. He didn’t win primary states for the most part in states a GOP candidate needed to win come Election Day.
Which is to say anything is possible. Like a black guy with a Muslim sounding name beating a former First Lady.
gene108
@batgirl:
Wall Street would shell out the billion or so needed to challenge President Obama, since they loathe Obama, after supporting him in 2008 and they probably feel Romney’s “one of them”, which Obama clearly didn’t turn out to be.
The biggest threat a Romney campaign would be to Obama would be the money he’d attract from Wall Street and corporate America, who still view President Obama as leading an October Revolution, in the style of Lenin.
Maude
@PurpleGirl:
Obama tried twice before the election last year to reverse the offshore tax. The Republicans nixed it.
Basic expenses are already going out of control.
Elie
@PurpleGirl:
I agree but the class consciousness/awareness card is scary for the current leadership to manage. Its one thing when you are fighting with the neighbors but another thing when you bring the fight in your living room.
We are going to have to face it. No doubt about it. But its going to raggedy and filled with false paths and unfortunately, many demagogues.
I think the Obama team sees this and are hoping to “manage” these changes to avoid extreme consequences but who knows if they will be able to keep it up. We are not a sophisticated people politically as is evidenced by our voting practices and the ongoing admonition that you don’t talk politics in polite circles. In Europe for example, politics and political discussion and participation are much more accepted and expected.
We will try to have it the easy way for as long as we can, then we will do what we must but only then…
While our national mood is ripe for demagogues, for once, the Republicans seem to be in weaker position (not that they would admit it)
Elie
@gene108:
I am certainly not going to argue that India is better off educationally. Only that our businesses can easily access their educated population without having to deal with India’s larger eductional problem. Now, if you are a company looking for a prepared work force are you going to want to get the smart American with high salary demands or another employee from another country who is equally smart but at half the wages?
My former company just moved its entire HELP desk function to India and released a bunch of Americans…
Cain
@aimai:
oh boy.. this is not going to end well. Hope, her insurance will give her enough money to build another house and be able to feed and house her kids. Good karma to her, even if she is a religious crank.
Cain
@Tom Q:
I was listening to NPR Market talk (or whatever that show is with Kyle Risdal) And from business perspective, it has been doing well in terms of consumer confidence and jobs. Jobs has been going in the right direction. Here in the Northwest, this past weekend the stores has been packed. Parking has been hard to get.. and this is just for freaking Mothers Day. It looked like Christmas.
So, in any case.. think in another 6 months we will have turned the corner.
Cain
@gene108:
If they had an educational system that actually rewards questioning your teachers instead of memorizing everything that would be a step in the right direction. Push, push hard. While students are pushed, creativity is not rewarded. This is why I’ll always champion U.S. education over the Indian education. Having been exposed to it, attended it, and found it lacking. They take the whole Guru/Student as a one way information tunnel instead of a back and forth.
Yevgraf (fka Michael)
@Zifnab:
I’ll say it – Huckabee is a redneck name. It connotes jowls and hamhocks and grits. “President Huckabee” would be a punchline to a joke in large swaths of the country, and would terrify the Brits and Western Europeans – and those investors are important to the Wall street boys.
Frankly, I’d have to seriously consider emigrating.
Chet
@batgirl: Or would be, if your relatives were the only type of Republican voter out there.
Which seems to be precisely Doug Harlan J’s point.
Chet
@Yevgraf (fka Michael): My mom constantly mispronounces his name as “Huckleberry”, and she’s not trying to be derisive or cute. It is a rather unfortunate name.
Juicetard (FKA Liberty60)
David Frum said it the best- the GOP used to think that Fox worked for them, now they realize they work for Fox.
What Wall Street wants in a candidate is one thing; what Rupert Murdoch decides to deliver to them is another thing entirely.
Roger Ailes and Rush Limbaugh don’t want a smoothly running conservative Republican government, even if that government delivered truckloads of tax cuts and screwed the working poor three times a day; what they want is conflict, lots of it, with heaping helpings of holy wars on the side.
fhtagn
@geg6:
GEG, you really have no idea how I view unemployment, but I will tell you this:
1) Government unemployment figures are notoriously unreliable, and tend to the optimistic
2) An unemployment rate of 9% is far too high for comfort in terms of Obama’s re-election
3) The Democrats have done far too little to fight for jobs and hammer the GOP for obstructing job creation. This ought to have been the millstone around the GOP’s neck a year ago, and instead we had to get lucky with Kamikaze Ryan and his American Dementia plan.
Judas Escargot
@batgirl:
IMO if Romney’s the nominee, then Romney wins. Obama loses NH, Ohio and Florida right out the gate. Eek.
Someone else today mentioned the “PLEASE JUST STOP THE NOISY!” factor motivating some independents to vote for Bush in 2000. I not only agree with that thesis, but think that’s what could push Romney over the top.
This is a man who a substantial fortune 1980s-style: Taking over companies, carving them up, and selling off the pieces to the highest bidder with not a care for the employees or for their pensions.
This is not a man America should want as President, at this particular time.
fhtagn
@Judas Escargot:
I am not so sure that Romney wins any of the states you name, and certainly not that easily. I suspect Florida and Ohio are deep into buyer’s remorse over their choice of wingnut governors, while Romney’s 2008 chair in New Hampshire basically refused to sign up again because Romney was so inconsistent. Romney’s been a punchline in the national media and, I think, in wingnut circles for a good 4 years as a flipflopper of the worst variety. I don’t think those things just vanish overnight. I agree Romney might be the most formidable challenger the GOP can offer (with Huckabee as the other danger), but that’s in the context of a remarkably weak field overall.
Purely for amusement, I offer this…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDOykmey7-I
mclaren
@ChrisS:
We’ve already got all that from a Democrat in the White House.
Tax cuts for the rich? Obama signed off on those.
Double defense spending? With this year’s 8% increase in military spending in a zero-core-inflation environment, Barack Obama and a Democratic congress will have doubled defense spending in real terms within another 9 years.
Cut medicare and social security? Does Obama’s catfood commission ring a bell?
Illegal to form unions? We’re already there, that’s a done deal.
No new money for renewable energy? That’s already America’s policy courtesy of our glorious Democratic congress.
What planet are you living on? All these policies you’re so scared of are already in place thanks to Barack Obama and a Democratic congress.