American politics is simple: white people vote Republican, non-white people (not just the black ones) vote Democrat. Christians (including Mormons) who go to church or are evangelical vote Republican, non-Christians (agnostics, Jews, Muslims, etc.) vote Democrat, and half-assed non-evangelical Christians are somewhere in the middle. Men vote Republican, women vote Democrat. (Slightly OT: Can a brother get an amen for less-observant white Catholics, the only white religious group that went for Obama in 2008?)
That’s most of what there is to know about American politics. Sure, there’s other more Inside Baseball type stuff, but after 2006 and 2008, it’s not out of place to ask Karl Rove how that microey, targety thing is working’ out for ya.
The gender gap is not as pronounced as the others. There was a 12 point gender gap in the 2008 election, 14 in 2004, 21 in 2000, whereas the other gaps I mentioned (white versus non-white, Tebow-fearing versus Tebow-hating) are more like 40. But it’s pretty good bet in any general election that the Democratic candidate will do 10 or more points better among women than men. That’s why this is so dumb:
Elizabeth Warren is poised to thrash Scott Brown in their marquee U.S. Senate race in Massachusetts, and the reason is simple: Women voters love her. In the most recent poll, in December, Warren and Brown were virtually tied amongst men, but Warren led by 13 percentage points, 51 percent to 38 percent, amongst women.[….]
President Obama ought to pay heed: Warren’s campaign can offer important lessons to his own. He too will need to secure women voters if he wants to earn re-election. And he, too, could do so by adopting Warren’s proud communitarian appeal.
In other words, Warren does exactly as well among women voters as Obama did among women voters in 2008 (I mean exactly — Obama won women voters by 13 points in 2008) and therefore Obama should learn from her campaign.
I love Elizabeth Warren, probably to a degree that is a bit unhealthy, I can’d deny it. But how is her performance among women in MA news? She’s a woman, which might make her poll better among women, in state supposedly filled with woman-hating Catholic men (though see above, haters), and yet almost exactly duplicates Obama’s numbers.
Elizabeth Warren is not the Lifetime Network of candidates. These numbers prove that and anyone who’s seen her speeches can see that. You can give to her campaign here.