England, England: so many of your countrymen start out enthused; so many end up disappointed. Will this year be different? I was concerned that Wayne Rooney’s suspension for two of the three group matches would be disatrous. The first game for which he’ll be eligible is against Ukraine and depending on how well they do in the first two, his return may be critical to their advancing. Please share your thoughts as to who will start in his place. I believe it will be Danny Welbeck. I’m a little surprised by Daniel Sturridge’s absence The ongoing debate over whether Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard can play together effectively has been mooted by Lampard’s injury and the rest of the midfield offers speed (Theo Walcott), skill on the ball (Gerrard and Ashley Young) and Scott Parker anchoring the central midfield. I believe their defense is only slightly diminished by Gary Cahill’s absence (I don’t know much about Martin Kelly, his replacement) and Joe Hart should put an end to the goalkeeping horror show of WC 2010.
France will clearly benefit from having a new coach who, unlike Raymond Domenech doesn’t rely on astrology for team selection. Karim Benzema should be the lone striker with Florent Malouda, Franck Ribery and Samir Nasri also guiding the attack, Yohan Cabaye anchoring the midfield with Yann M’Vila. I’m not sure who will be in the back four, I’m guessing Phillippe Mexes, Laurent Koscielny Patrice Evra and perhaps Adil Rami. Hugo Lloris remains as the keeper.
I have to plead ignorance on much of Sweden’s lineup. I’m most familiar with Zlatan Ibrahimovic of course, but was surprised to see that Olof Mellberg is still playing in central defense at 34. Johan Elmander should pair well with Zlata, but any success for Sweden will depend on Zlata: if he does well he may be able to carry the team out of the group. Here’s a stray thought: the next time the execrable Jim Rome decides to trash this sport, I hope he does so while interviewing Zlata.
I’m half-Ukrainian, but I feel safe in saying that if they weren’t co-host, Ukraine would have not been involved in this competition. They had a goal differential of zero in their last ten friendlies, losing by 4 goals to the Czech Republic and 3 to France. Andriy Shevchenko will start at forward at 35. I hear good things about Ruslan Rotan and Andriy Yarmolenko in midfield, but I have yet to see them play. Indeed, I have seen few of the Ukraine players in action, but I don’t expect much from this group.
Look to England and France to go through, although if Zlata plays well, Sweden may pose a threat.
Alison
I have a couple of Brit friends who are basically already rending their garments in preparation for disappointment. Being a pessimist myself, I couldn’t really talk them out of it…besides, as a USMNT fan, it’s not like I’m not familiar with tamping down expectations, lolsob.
burnspbesq
France looked very good the other night, blowing up a good Estonia side 4-nil. They are ready to rock. England will probably get through the group stage and get lit up in the quarters.
handsmile
This is the Group I’m most intrigued by, not least because the two teams that will advance, Sweden and, especially, France, possess a reasonable chance of upsetting the trio of pre-tournament favorites.
Ukraine, as co-hosts, will concede to Poland the traditional peculiarity in which the host nation exceeds expectations.
England, however, best illustrates the maxim that “familiarity breeds contempt.”
Under the inspired leadership of coach Laurent Blanc, Les Bleus have refashioned themselves after the debacle in South Africa. The versatile squad is well-balanced between potent newcomers to this level of competition and seasoned veterans, three of whom, Karim Benzema, Franck Ribery, and Hugo Lloris are world-class. Benzema is motivated as well by the opportunity to shine away from his Madrid teammate CRonaldo. Among the less or unfamiliar names to watch for: midfielders Yann M’vila, Jeremy Menez, and the much-discussed young fullback Mathieu DeBuchy. I do hope that Philippe Mexes will be replaced in central midfield by Laurent Koscielny who had an outstanding season for Arsenal.
Sweden, like France, has recast itself under a new coach, Eric Hamren. In their recent “friendlies,” victories against Croatia, Iceland and Serbia, an un-Scandinavian-like offensive dynamism and sophistication was on display. Unlike France, however, Sweden’s starting IX and usual substitutes are much-capped. Zlatan Ibrahimovic, though often peevish, can be a colossus. Pay attention as well to midfielder Sebastian Larsson and forwards Ola Tolvonen and Johan Elmander who may be primed for a break-out performance.
By almost all accounts, Roy Hodgson is a fine fellow: urbane, knowledgeable about matters other than football, with a richly-deserved reputation for improving mediocre teams through disciplined training. Which is all to say that he will not deserve the tsunami of shit that will engulf him when England fails to get out of the group stage.
Euro 2012 will be a transitional tournament for the Three Lions, the parting fart from a generation (Terry, Gerrard, Lampard, Cole, Parker et al) who have been much hyped but have achieved little. Two consecutive flops on the international stage should be enough to unclasp their grip from entitled squad selection. Could someone please explain to me what Gerrard, much less Stewart Downing, is doing in this squad? My opinion of Theo Walcott’s ineptitude has been long expressed on previous football threads here. Recent injuries to what was three-quarters of Chelsea’s back line further exposed England’s frailty. And of course, the idjit Wayne Rooney will be missing the first two matches (against France and Sweden) through suspension.
One player alone could extend England’s visit to Mittel Europa: goalkeeper Joe Hart, the best English keeper in a generation. Much like the US keeper Tim Howard, he is the one irreplaceable member of this squad.
Finally, I suppose it is unnecessary advice to anyone reading/commenting here that the Guardian’s Euro 2012 site (as well as ZonalMarking.net for real addicts) will be essential reading for the next several weeks: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/euro2012
[ETA: Apologies for the essay-length. I realize I do tend to go on, but this one turned out even longer than usual.]
penpen
Only two of Rami, Koscielny and Mexes will start at the back for France, the Lille fullback Debuchy is likely also to start and he’s very good at getting forward it seems.
burnspbesq
J’aime Larry White!
pseudonymous in nc
I’m predicting Sweden to do yet another one on England this time round, though we won’t have the delight of Fatty Mullet Brolin‘s one-two in Euro ’92. I just don’t see much there there in the England squad, Rooney or no Rooney: whatever enthusiasm exists feels is pretty forced this time round, and there’ll be a lot of shrugs and “time to rebuild” and “roll on the Olympics” when they head home.
I’m not sure whether the French will get past the quarters, given the expected Group C opposition, but they have a coherent team under Blanc, and they’re going to improve year on year with the squad and talent pool available.
Randy Paul
@penpen: Koscielny has played right back, indeed it was his first position.
BGinCHI
@handsmile: Great post, my friend. That really covers a lot of ground.
England suck no matter who plays. That’s what’s so strange about the side. I only wish Terry and Ashley Cole would play so I could boo them from the privacy of my living room. Mrs. BG thinks this hilarious, but I’m really booing.
You all are convincing me about France, but we’ll know early whether they are a team or not.
And as I’ve said, watch out for Sweden. How do they do it? How do the tides work?
No one knows.
pete
England’s only hope is to bore the hell out of everyone. Hey, it worked for Chelsea. Group stages: 1-0, 0-0, 1-0. And after that … 1-0 … nah, not gonna happen, but Roy has made a good start at the 1-0s.
piratedan
i’m predicting that this is the year that Finch (England) beats The Stomach (France), dunno why… but I think the Brits and the Swedes get thru just get the feeling that all is not well with France, just a bit of adversity and I think they may panic
pseudonymous in nc
My half-arsed pub theory on Sweden, especially over the past 20 years: hardly anyone who’s good plays in the Swedish league, and the squad this time only has a couple of players from Swedish clubs. Instead, they spend their careers travelling from country to country — usually the northern ones, with the occasional spell in Spain or Italy for top players like Zlata. They’re tough and adaptable, and while you wouldn’t back them to win the whole thing, you can’t write them off against any side in the tournament. They beat the Dutch to earn their place in the finals.
(The Swedish example points to the paradox facing the US national team: it would probably improve faster if it sent more of its players overseas, but the domestic league needs them to keep growing.)
Brandon
I was ready to root for England in this tournament as the underdog down and out, personally flawed but hit rock bottom, former heavyweight fighter trying to get one last title shot. Maybe a little bit like Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler. But then Woy Hodgson and the FA decided to try and make a mockery of my intelligence and demonstrated how far from rock bottom they really are, because in fact they are morally bankrupt liars who think everyone is a moron.
What’s odd is I think Mr. Mix is the only person on the planet that has not bothered to mention John Terry when discussing England and Euro 2012. For that matter, he doesn’t even bring up Woy Hodgson. Not to mention Rio Ferdinand. Or Stewart Downing, Henderson, Carroll or the rest of those Liverpool mediocrities that dominate the squad. He’s surprised that Sturridge didn’t get picked? That didn’t shock me because Sturridge is cack. What did surprise me though was the omissions of Richards, Adam Johnson and Carrick. Aaron Lennon would probably have even been a better option than Downing on the left.
To me, the odd thing is that John Terry is guaranteed his place, totally aside from the fact that he is due in court in 1 month for a racially offense, and just ignoring the 100 other disgusting things that he has done in just the last couple years. He has been woefully out of form the last few matches of the season. And was an absolute disgrace at the Camp Nou and a total disaster against Liverpool. Just based on that alone, he should be dropped to the bench. Particularly considering that the best recent defensive performance for England was provided by Jagielka and Lescott when England beat Spain 1-0 at Wembly not that long ago. And you could see the strength of their partnership and understanding again in the Norway friendly. Which makes sense considering I think they played together, if only briefly, at Everton. Why John Terry gets to start, the world only knows.
burnspbesq
Opinions about the England side are like assholes: everybody has one, and none of them (including mine) are useful for any purpose other then the transmission of shit.
Americanadian
Why is a reasonable man like yourself (or anyone, really) paying any attention to Jim Rome’s verbal dysentery?
SRW1
Prediction:
Zlatan I and John T get into a punch-up during the England – Sweden game when John T, in view of 50 TV cameras, pulls Zlatan’s pony tail and Zlatan fells John T by retaliating with a kung-fu move. Both players are red-carded, barred for the rest of the tournament, and get sent home.
England then go on an improbable run and reach the final, where they prevail in a penalty shoot-out against Poland. Although this time only able to watch from afar, John T thereby ‘wins’ the second major title of his career after the CL trophy without having played a single minute in the decisive game.
A few weeks later, John T is convicted of racial abuse by a British court, but defiantly declares that this in no way means the end of his international career.
Amir Khalid
The only thing I am confident of about England is that they will somehow find a way to raise their fans’ expectations and then disappoint them. It is the one area in which the FA and the squad are reliably creative.
Last year, the Guardian reported on a Parliamentary committee that found the English FA in need of “urgent and radical change”. The story ran with a photo of the FA’s front door: under its crest was the slogan “A World-class Organisation With A Winning Mentality”.
Ecks
The atmosphere in England is really unusual this time around. Normally there’s a breathless hype around the team, and an absurdly unhealthy degree of optimism about their prospects, but that just basically isn’t happening this time. I think it was Gerrard who noted that unlike all past tournaments, none of the press this time have even once asked if he thinks they can win it. When Woy WAS asked that question, he said “Look at Greece a few years back, anything can happen”… which is more or less the polar opposite of domineering bravado.
The reasons people are so down is that:
a) the team, on paper, was pretty bad,
b) A massive spate of injuries then made it even worse
c) While Woy’s selections are hardly uncontroversial, there’s an acknowledgment that he didn’t exactly have an embarassment of riches to choose from. Maybe Rio or Carrick would be upgrades, but they wouldn’t be game changers.
d) Switching managers a few weeks before a tourny doesn’t leave any time to gel into a new system
e) The new Sol Campbell point is that unlike most other leagues, there’s no christmas break in the EPL, so the players are even more physically and mentally exhausted after 9 non-stop months of football grind than most other countries players. That tends to leave them prone to the customary wave of English injuries, and mental lapses.
So yeah, the general consensus this side of the pond seems to be that we’ll be lucky to get out the group stage.
Ecks
BTW, to back up last post, here’s a poll at the Guardian that shows the punters think we’re out at the group or quarter-final (only 5% think we’d make the final, which is only a fifth of a crazification factor).
Here are their “experts” saying basically the same thing.
The usual optimism, it is not here.
Splitting Image
@Ecks:
That’s precisely when an underachiever is the most dangerous. If no one is expecting anything great from England, then they will probably have to win their group in order to start underachieving again.
Randy Paul
@Americanadian: Just to simply imagine him getting the shit beaten out of him.
bjacques
I drew Ukraine in the office pool. I’m going to support them by doing vodka shots.
Brandon
@SRW1: Brilliant! Now that’s a prediction I can fully endorse. You forgot one key element though, when England win it, John Terry will somehow make his way to the pitch, changingin into his full kit (including shin pads!) And lift the trophy from Michel Platini like he was the captain and actually played.
r€nato
I have recorded some highlights of Serie A football in order to post them to my FB account… and fully half the highlights are an amazing goal by Ibrahimovic. He is nothing short of astounding.
In one of these plays, he boots it high in the air over a defender from the top of the box… draws out the goalie… the ball comes down behind the goalie… a defender races up and tries to beat Zlatan to the ball, ineffectively. Zlatan brushes him off and heads it in to the empty net.
handsmile
Randinho/Randy Paul:
Many thanks for putting together these Group summaries in advance of tomorrow’s Euro2012 kickoff. As usual, your observations are insightful, wide-ranging, and witty; what’s more, apparently you have to write them up at the end of an already long day. We salute you (though not a Ukrainian salute)!
@burnspbesq: (#13)
negative 1
As a Newcastle fan I’ve got to say — Scott Parker is about the most overrated central midfielder I’ve seen. He’s not bad, but the problem becomes evident in the description of the midfield. Everyone else has a description, Scott Parker ‘anchors it’. Anchors it how? He’s useful for quick forays into the box (like a really poor man’s version of Gerrard in his style of play), is a good defender for an offensive-minded midfielder and doesn’t distribute the ball especially well. Newcastle was hardly crying when he left. He didn’t especially tear up the Premier League this year.
It just strikes me that for the style of play the Premier League favors England seems to have a true dearth of central midfield options. If England has been disappointing in national competitions since 2008, one has to wonder if Gerrard and Lampard shouldn’t shoulder most of the blame (they should). Plus at this point they’re well over the hill.
negative 1
@burnspbesq: Somewhere Alan Pardew watched it thinking “if only I could just collect the rest of the set, we’ll make Champions League for sure…”
Randy Paul
@negative 1: He anchors it in the sense that is his role.
Randy Paul
I might add how well he does it remains to be seen
Randy Paul
@Brandon: Cack? Sturridge scored as many goals in the league as Jermaine Defoe, usually coming off the bench. I also like his size against some of the defenders. Defoe is small without the skill of smaller strikers like Messi.
scott
@Randy Paul: The one thing Scotty does that raises him above the others in midfield is that he’s pretty comfortable on the ball and relatively difficult to dispossess. Passing-wise, he’s no visionary, but for England simply holding onto the ball without losing it is a perennial problem. As an Arsenal fan, maybe I’m biased, but I think the only guy in the whole England set-up who could have helped the midfield to be more incisive and dangerous would have been Wilshere (get well for August, Jack!).
Eric Martin
Pulling hard for Zlata in my Swedish jersey!!!!
(secondary vote goes to Eng-a-land)
Matrok
Hi all, coming at you from France, the big worry is defence. Some big gaps with Mexes et al. letting two goals slip through at the beginning of a recent friendly against Finland or Iceland (can’t remember) before they came back and scored three. So unless we can have full-on discipline like in 1998 (with the likes of Laurent Blanc, Lizzarazu, Thuram locking it down) the attacking quality won’t suffice. Even still up front there are some real rippers who play only in France so no visibility but remember their names: Olivier Giroud, Matthieu Valbuena etc etc. The first half of the second friendly game (against Serbia) just flowed, one touch passing festival. I didnt watch the third which they did win 4-0. Fingers crossed, I have not seen the Dutch, German or Spanish play since 2010.
Paula
Ugh:
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/soccer-dirty-tackle/netherlands-players-racial-abuse-training-session-euro-12-231527219.html
Randinho
@Paula: I never thought I would ever write this, but good for Mark Van Bommel.
Paula
@Randinho:
Yeah, I know, right? But what else could any halfway-decent captain do to keep the team focused on training?
UEFA’s strategery on this stuff is becoming very clear very quickly, and I can’t help but expect the worst. These people went out of their way to heckle players at a training session — what are they gonna do at a competitive match?
Brandon
@Randy Paul: Don’t get me wrong, I am not a big Defoe fan either and would probably have preferred to see Grant Holt get the nod ahead of him. But it was easy to see why he was selected ahead of Holt, he provides a different option in a squad that already and quite inexplicably had Andy Carroll.
In addition, there are a number of reasons why Defoe got the nod ahead of Sturridge. First, Sturridge plays FW/RW, which is also the domain of Walcott and whatever Walcott’s failings, he’s a better option than Sturridge. And Hodgson seems to have tried not to select two players who have similar roles. Next, just on a straight Defoe v. Sturridge question, if you were going to deploy either as a central striker, Defoe is a better decision maker. From what I have seen of Sturridge, if he received the ball in the final third, no matter what his position and the position of his team mates, he will shoot. Tight angles, 35 yards out, it doesn’t matter to him. And since he is incapable of playing in his team mates, which is a quality that Hodgson seems to value most in forwards, see e.g. Odemwingie and Zamora, it makes much more sense to pick a player who can do that for you than one who will more likely than not put it in row Z or the side netting. Which brings me to my last reason why Defoe over Sturridge, accuracy. Say what you want about Defoe, his technical ability, movement, etc. (I personally think he’s below average in most important qualities for a footballer), he has great shooting accuracy. Whereas Sturridge is just plain poor. I’m too lazy to look up stats on conversion rates and shooting accuracy, but I would wager that Defoe’s a significantly better than Sturridge’s.
And just for the hell of it, there is that inverse correlation between Sturridge’s playing time and Chelsea’s success on the pitch to consider.
uaftw
We can only assume that France can win first place, but let’s not forget their horrendous result in World Cup South Africa group A, where they were LAST place. England and Sweden are competitors indeed, but Ukraine could pose a threat, too. They have new players that are actually quite skilled. Although they’ve had a slump and have lost quite a few of their last friendlies, we can’t assume anything, because Ukraine, or Sweden, or England, or France could be packing a punch no one is yet aware of..Group D is definitely an interesting group..