I just listened to a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner call on the politics of the Ryan vouchercare plan. Bottom line: people hate the plan. For example, Obama leads by 3 points in the current GQR survey, and when voters are asked who they would vote for if Romney endorsed the Ryan plan, it jump to six points.
Tim Tebow doesn’t love me enough to make Ryan Romney’s VP, though, I’m afraid. Stan Greenberg says that before conducting this poll, he thought that Romney might do well to select Ryan because Young Blue Eyes excites the right-wing base so much, but that, having seen these polling results, he now believes that Ryan is just too toxic.
redshirt
The Repugs should go all in and nominate a Triumvirate of White Guys to face off against Obama. Is there anyone who’s not toxic in that party? If you throw enough white guys at the wall, something will stick, right?
Ash Can
Hell, just photoshop a little lipstick onto Paulie, show that pic around, and the GOP base will think they’re voting for Sarah Palin. Problem solved.
rlrr
@redshirt:
I think they’re looking for a Palin without Palin’s baggage…
Cassidy
@redshirt: I’m down for anything involving a trebuchet.
Tim F.
The only reason Ryan is not more lethal is because voters flat out do not believe how evil his ideas are. The GOP would be thrilled to keep that question quite murky, thank you, between now and November.
Romney picks TPaw or I will eat a chocolate chip cookie shaped like my shoe.
Jean
@Tim F.: NYT is suggesting Pawlenty.
jwb
@Tim F.: TPaw doesn’t appear to be toxic, so he has that in his favor. But I don’t see that he does anything for the campaign.
redshirt
@jwb: He’s boring – wasn’t that one of Mitt’s requirements?
What a bunch of losers! And yet still, 45% almost guaranteed.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
This is what makes American politics so frustrating, (via Booman)
My aunts will vote for Romney no matter what because of BABIES (and, well, you know, isn’t he a Kenyan Muslim?)! My uncles believe deep in their bones that the Medicare and Social Security they depend on isn’t a government benefit (they EARNED it, dammit! They WORKED for their money!) It doesn’t help that the underlying tenet of Broderism is that Republians aren’t really what they’ve been telling us they are for thirty years, they’re really sensible Eisenhower Republicans
redshirt
Related: This picture reminded me of some thoughts I had this weekend regarding political branding – the Repugs have very successfully tied their brand to “Americana” – hunting, trucks, apple pie, etc. This appeals in concept to many folks who consider themselves “honest Americans” who might even be good people. So you have “rednecks” voting for billionaires against every iota of their own interest, because of this branding.
The reverse branding of Democrats of course is effete, urban, weak, etc.
We will not be able to completely destroy the Repukes until we undo this messaging.
Mitt’s a great way to start.
chopper
@Tim F.:
and while the focus groups may not have believed it possible, a few months of tv ads can change that belief straight-up.
i’m going with t-paw as well. which will do all of jack and shit for romney’s campaign.
Jay C
Well, the big problem for Republicans this time round is that:
A) There are enormously few attractive-to-the-base VP candidates who wouldn’t be “toxic” to the electorate at large in the general election, and
B) The GOP “base” is so extremist, and so motivated by tribalistic political hatred (on near-Rwandan levels) that there really is no such thing as “too toxic” for them.
PS: I was listening to Bloomberg Radio on the road yesterday, and they aired a (bland boilerplate) defense of Mitt Romney/Bain Capital by Sen. Kelly Ayotte of NH; and mentioned as an aside that she was considered as a possible VP candidate. This kinda/sorta makes sense: She seems to be a sort of smarter Sarah Palin; Party hack, Catholic, an off-the-shelf rightie with all the right “social” cred (death penalty, anti-abortion, anti-gay), a decent record, and an IQ above freezing. Wouldn’t be as much fun (for Dems) as Paul Ryan on the ticket, but you can’t have everything…
ETA: Viz. redshirt @ #3
Cassidy
Nope. Gonna be Ryan.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Tim F.: I don’t think Romney will ever forgive T-Paw for the ObamneyCare thing. I suspect Our Willard carries a grudge like Barbara Bush. My money’s on Portman or Thune.
BGinCHI
Ryan’s dog looks really sleepy.
TaMara (BHF)
I have a request, while Obama has Rmoney on the ropes, can he start to run against the do-nothing congress?
Something along the lines of, ‘we had these plans set to go to boost the economy, but the Rthugs voted against it.’
I know, I know. That and a shiny, sparkly unicorn will make me happy.
NCSteve
Nothing Millard has done so far makes me believe he’s sufficiently politically astute to realize Ryan is toxic.
Ash Can
Pawlenty would be an awesome pick. Governor Bridgecollapse, quit the presidential campaign due to rampant lack of interest (even before it was his turn to be the not-Romney flavor of the week), bland northerner who will be seen as a RINO by the Confederate base, not terribly bright. Bring it on.
Frankensteinbeck
I would have said no way to Ryan, because he’s political poison, photographs horribly next to Romney, and together they completely discredit Reagan’s lie that the GOP loves the working man. Only an absolute incompetent would choose Ryan as Romney’s running mate. I’m starting to think Romney might be that incompetent.
Violet
@Jay C: I don’t think they can pick a woman, especially an attractive woman, without unfortunate comparisons to Palin. The only exception would be a Latina. Otherwise, no.
What about whatshisname from Virginia? He had Romney’s back on the Bain/tax stuff last week.
BGinCHI
I still think it will be Artur Davis.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@NCSteve: True, I think what would turn Willard off Ryan is that Willard doesn’t want to be overshadowed by his junior partner.
gussie
Did you see the perfect twittable quip about Romney not releasing his taxes because Mrs. Kerry’s worth hundreds of millions and _she_ didn’t?
“Watch your back, Michelle. Mitt’s running for First Lady.”
So utterly perfect. Emasculating and pointed at the same time.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/16/1110442/-Mitt-I-m-not-releasing-tax-returns-because-John-Kerry-s-wife-that-s-why
Jeffro
Ryan, Rubio, Portman, or McDonnell…hmm, and now Thune comes along, would help Romney shore himself up (if such a thing is even possible) with the fundies…
I’ll say McDonnell or Thune.
Punchy
I cant wait for him to announce Rob Portman and hear the collective wail of “Wwwwwwwwwhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaa?” followed by the collective groan of “Wwwwwhhhhhhhhooooooooooo?” followed closely by the collective righttard cry of “Wwwwwwwwwwhhhhhhhyyyy?”
And all of this very quickly followed by the Village Pundits telling us just how awesum sauce this is because SHUT UP THATS WHY.
quannlace
You mean Governor ‘Transvaginal Ultrasound?’
Violet
@quannlace: Oh, yeah. I’d forgotten about that debacle. Hmmm…could they risk that?
I still think it’s going to be either someone whose political career is mostly done or who is in a safe seat–a former Governor or Senator type–or someone whose current aspirations have hit a wall. Pawlenty fits the second type. Someone like Lloyd Bentsen on Dukakis’s ticket fits the first.
Randall Gremillion
While I can’t say I love echo chambers like this, I do appreciate the function they’re serving: http://spectator.org/archives/2008/09/25/the-taranto-principle
PeakVT
@BGinCHI: Srsly? Davis is a lot saner than the other AA conservatives, but he’d never be trusted by the base. I think he’d be a net negative.
Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God
@redshirt:
“The GOP has no moderate faction anymore. It’s a rump amalgamation of plutocrats and the people who service their air conditioning.”
(Source).
J.W. Hamner
Unless you make a disaster pick (i.e. Palin) do VP selections really move the dial at all? If he picks somebody from a battleground state OK, but otherwise? Meh. Might as well go boring since nobody is voting for the vice-president.
Ash Can
BTW, a comment I just spotted on LGF has me thinking. When the VP pick is announced, the VP candidate releases his/her tax returns, right? How many returns get released, usually? If VP Candidate releases more years than Romney has, doesn’t that show Romney up, and spur continued calls for more returns? And if VP releases as many as Romney has, doesn’t that get people to crabbing about how VP must be hiding something as well, thus spurring continued calls for more returns?
::munches popcorn::
catclub
@jwb: Obamneycare videos?
Falling interstate bridge – and state governemnet repsonses thereto, before and after the event?
John Thune has no baggage by comparison. Is approximately invisible.
catclub
@gussie: The (large) majority of the income and complicated tax forms in the McCain family come from the Mrs. And I don’t think she released her tax forms either.
PeakVT
@Ash Can: It’s quite possible the Veep candidate will have released more tax returns already.
reflectionephemeral
@NCSteve: I disagree. I think Romney is as vague and policy-averse as possible. Ryan stands for specific, concrete, nonsensical things. I would be genuinely shocked if he took Ryan over some cipher like Pawlenty or Portman.
BGinCHI
@PeakVT: I’m trying to think like them.
Admittedly I have no idea how to do that.
Ash Can
@PeakVT: In which case, of course, the contrast is immediately noticeable. Dang, I’m going to need a bigger popcorn bowl.
Falmouth
I think Portman. Mitt wants somebody boring and who may make a difference in a battleground state. Somebody who also won’t alienate independent and slightly intelliegent voters.
redshirt
@BGinCHI: Shove a metal rod up your nose then you’ll be thinking “The Republican Way”!
jwb
@TaMara (BHF): I think you’ll see the pivot to the do-nothing Congress right after they go on summer recess. It’s all been set up.
the Conster
@Ash Can:
Schieffer asked the question of the NotRomney yesterday on his show about whether Romney not releasing his tax returns would prohibit him from a cabinet appointment or from being vice president, and the NotRomney said of course not! I don’t believe him, and of course Schieffer didn’t push back, but I think it would be a deal killer for being approved by a Congressional committee.
giltay
I still consider this article to be the definitive VP nominee speculation piece. My money is on Rob Ford. Please.
Ash Can
@the Conster: If said committee has a majority of Republicans on it, it would be no problem. This is why, for the first time, I’m donating a little scratch to the DCCC this year. They’ve targeted about 35 close races around the nation, and regaining control of the House (while maintaining control of the Senate) is crucial.
Maude
Is this the TPaw, I’ve got a bridge for sale, guy?
ellie
I heard it might be John Thune. Him and Rmoney will look like Pete and Repeat.
PeakVT
@redshirt: I think this is the precise procedure.
Michael G
I took one glance at Rob Portman and it’s obvious that he’s got the perfect republican VP look about him.
Also: He’s got the republican “RP” thing working for him: Ron Paul, Reince Preibus, Rick Perry, Paul Ryan, Rand Paul, and now Rob Portman. It’s perfect.
Harry
A T-Paw pick would ensure the Pawlenty snooze-train would roll on to the 2016 race as a “presumptive front-runner.”
Go Pawlenty!
Amir Khalid
I still expect that Mitt’s running mate will be a man who couldn’t talk his way out of it, since going down with Mitt this year would kill his own post-2012 hopes. As Mitt looks more and more like a weak candidate, I think this seems more probable.
FlipYrWhig
@Amir Khalid: That reminds me how I had made a prediction that Romney would pick a business person or a military figure for VP rather than a standard politician. That prediction looks pretty implausible now, but it would be a way to go to avoid burning down the reputation of anyone with a political future to mind.
Bluecrab
@TaMara (BHF): I think you can rest assured that the attacks on the Republican Congress’s obstruction are coming, and in spades. Just give Obama time. Remember, he plays the long game. He’s just getting started on Romney’s despicable ass, and Romney’s campaign is already bumbling its responses something awful. I just cannot see any way in the world that Romney gets a majority of the vote in November.
Cris (without an H)
You are required to post a pic of that first, though. And I’m hoping you’ll go for a 3D representation, not just a shoe-shaped cookie cutter.
Elizabelle
@Ash Can:
T-Paw worries me a little, slender reed that he is.
He took himself out of the GOP primary Karnival of Krazy. Didn’t get slimed by that.
He’s governor of a midwest state that has a lot liberals in it. (See! Crossover appeal! Or at least what people not following politics might think.)
How about: T-Paw for VP, and then Romney has to drop out after the convention.
T-Paw/Jeb Bush. Two white guys, America!
Lurking Canadian
I, for one am terrified by Ryan’s ice-blue eyes and Tarantino-esque hipster cool.