__
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Professor Krugman speculates on why this may not be the election we were expecting:
… The conventional wisdom — which I too bought into — was that Democrats were going to support Obama, but grudgingly and without much enthusiasm. There had been too many disappointments; the golden aura of 2008 was long gone. Meanwhile, Republicans would show their usual unity and discipline, and at best it would be Obama by a nose.
Instead, the Republicans appear to be in a shambles — while the Democrats seem incredibly united, and increasingly, dare I say it, enthusiastic. (Mark Blumenthal sees this in the polls, but it’s also just the impression you get.)
How did that happen? Partly it’s because this has become such an ideological election — much more so than 2008. The GOP has made it clear that it has a very different vision of what America should be than that of Democrats, and Democrats have rallied around their cause. Among other things, while we weren’t looking, social issues became a source of Democratic strength, not weakness — partly because the country has changed, partly because the Democrats have finally worked up the nerve to stand squarely for things like reproductive rights.
And let me add a speculation: I suspect that in the end Obamacare is turning out to be a big plus, even though it has always had ambivalent polling. The fact is that Obama can point to a big achievement that will survive if he is reelected, perish if he isn’t; health insurance for 50 million or so Americans (30 million from the ACA, another 20 who would lose coverage if Romney/Ryan Medicaid cuts happen) is enough to cure people of the notion that it doesn’t matter who wins.
All of this in turn has an implication that Republicans won’t like — assuming that Rasmussen doesn’t have a special insight into the truth denied to all other pollsters, and that Obama does in fact win with a solid margin. The right is already set up to blame poor Mitt, claiming that he lost because he wasn’t conservative enough. But that’s not what we’re seeing; it looks as if voters are rejecting the right’s whole package, not just the messenger….
Baud
When were the Democrats not for reproductive rights?
Xenos
@Baud: A lot of blue dogs watered down the party’s position on reproductive rights. Now that most of them are gone, the public has, maybe, a bit more trust in the Democrats to support these rights.
Maybe it is more of a generational change, but it seems to be real.
amk
Mainly because of the fucking skinny guy sticking to the fucking message for the past decade ?
Yes, I remember bitching and moaning krugthulu before he saw the fecking light.
SRW1
All of this in turn has an implication that Republicans won’t like — assuming that Rasmussen doesn’t have a special insight into the truth denied to all other pollsters, and that Obama does in fact win with a solid margin.
Caveat longer than the core statement of the sentence. Good example why Krugmann is a fine academic, but would fail utterly as a politician. Otherwise well done as usual, Professor.
Linda
Part of the pessimism is that lefties always see themselves on the fuzzy end of the lollipop, waiting for disaster. We think of conservatives as being dumb in ideology and governance, but gifted in winning elections in some way we can’t understand or duplicate.
Napoleon
I have been up for an hour and they have already ran that ad on TV 3 times. I love it.
Soonergrunt
@Anne Laurie, top:
Conservatism cannot fail. It can only be failed by the insufficiently conservative. The answer, of course, is to nominate someone next time who is an “authentic” conservative. This is the path to generational marginalization. Swap “conservatism” and “conservatives” with “liberalism” and “liberals” and you have the left in the early 80s.
The pendulum swings, does it not?
Triassic Sands
Not a bad ad, but “first we create a million new manufacturing jobs” kinda sounds like magic. If we can do it after the election, a curious person might ask, why not do it before the election — like yesterday? Certainly not because after losing a sure thing election the Republicans are going to be more amenable to compromise and cooperation. If and when they lose this election, they’re going to really want to make the socialist from Kenya pay — big time.
I’d would love to see the Republican reaction should they lose the White House, their House majority, and fail to take the Senate. That would be a titanic repudiation (too much too hope for, I suppose) of their whole scheme — something they and the country desperately need.
Double down? Hell, the Republicans have tripled down, quadrupled down, octupled down and more on the same old losing policies. It makes me think of that tired old cliche’ the first thing to do when you find yourself in a hole is stop digging. Except the Republican plan is to trade in the shovel for an atomic backhoe.
raven
I’d
wouldwill love to see the Republican reaction should they lose the White House, their House majority, and fail to take the Senate. That would be a titanic repudiation (too much too hope for, I suppose) of their whole scheme—something they and the country desperately need.LanceThruster
Morning Joe is pushing Krauthammer’s meme of Rmoney needing to “go big” as if OvenMitt hasn’t alienated the electorate with both the messenger and the message.
The JoeBag is also spinning that in many areas Mittens is tightening the race and merely needs a good debate showing to surge ahead. And now he’s ‘leveling the playing field” by declaring “both sides’ have waged a substance free campaign.
DIAF, Joe.
JPL
@raven: There was enough gerrymandering to insure Republican victory in the house. If they lose several seats, my nightmare scenario is they anoint Cantor as speaker.
Your optimism is appreciated though.
Schlemizel
@LanceThruster:
And yet there he is on YOUR TV. Perhaps if people ignored the useless twit MSNBC would replace him.
Its a dream of mine.
jeffreyw
Thread needs moar etouffee.
raven
@jeffreyw: Where’d ya get the mudbugs?
raven
@LanceThruster: Looks like Noot cancelled.
arguingwithsignposts
I would rather not think about the right’s package, tyvm.
otoh, droooooooooooones!
arguingwithsignposts
@raven: I’m guessing that’s shrimp etouffe, and not crawfish. Unless there are stealth crawfish farms in S. Ill.
raven
So, the Romney campaign is pumping up Obama’s debating skills and Joe is noting that Obama is a middlin debater. hhahahahaha
Schlemizel
@jeffreyw:
Very nice – you should stop by the Thursday nigh recipe exchange here.
raven
@arguingwithsignposts: Nope, them’s mudbugs.
eta There’s a lot more mudbugs in Illinois than there are srimps!
LanceThruster
@Schlemizel:
It’s the quickest way to determine what BS is being pushed (and therefore countered). Low ratings did not stop Joe from being inflicted on us in the first place. I flip when the commercials hit as well as when his bloviations get too insufferable, but I think “know your enemy” applies here.
The other news outlets in CA at this hour are limited, and even C-SPAN has a lot of right wing screen time as well as their morning call in show being endurable only in measured doses.
If Cartoon Network ran better toons at that hour, I’d be there. Comendy Central at times has some good stand-up specials, but go to gawd-awful infomercials at MY morning primetime.
For what it’s worth, at times MJ has liberal voices that call him out on his horsesh!t.
maryQ
So Prof Krugman has seen the light, and admitted that the things he predicted, for the election, were wrong (he was way right about the housing bubble and the financial industry, though). So, i wonder when we will stop seeing references to Obama’s “luck”, and how his opponents “just seem to self-destruct” or how “conditions did unexpectedly turn to his favor” and acknowledge that he IS in fact playing 11-dimensional chess, and HE has an uncanny ability to MAKE his opponents piss all over themselves. He does this pretty much as amk says, by having a good message, staying on it even if it seems not to be working, and simply not being what his opponents are trying to convince you that he is.
To paraphrase sully, meepity, meep meep mother f*cking meep!
rope a dope, Princeton defense, long game, don’t hit first hit last, waterer your metaphor. He’s doing that.
raven
@arguingwithsignposts: And here is how you eat the real deal!
LanceThruster
@Schlemizel: ABC World News Now is doing Reese Whitherspoon baby news with cheezy paparazzi graphics followed by Kesha video commentary.
Thanks for helping me elevate the level of my news and info choices.
LanceThruster
@raven:
Now how will I ever get the necessary Noot U credits to gradjamatate?!
danielx
From his lips to God’s ears, as the saying goes. But there are a lot of voters out there who have taken the right’s package to their hearts, too. Facts and rationality have no impact or effect upon them, it’s all about the Kenyan imposter in the White House and his totalitarian soshulist agenda. (You’d think they’d have noticed by now that this whole capitalism thing isn’t exactly working as advertised, but I digress.) My concern at this point is how they are going to react in the event of a complete rejection by a resounding majority, since moving to Idaho and seceding from from the U.S. isn’t an option.
I admit that I loves me some schadenfreude as much as the next person and probably more than most, but the “what happens next” issue is starting to concern me. If this works out to be a Nixon/McGovern or Reagan/Mondale type landslide, it’s going to be interesting* to see the reaction. Aside from the Republican party splitting, that is. Not to put too fine a point on it, the McGovern supporters in 1972 weren’t the ones who possessed most of the guns.
*As in, may you live in interesting times.
dr. bloor
This is absolutely, positively the last conclusion the right will draw if they get swamped in the elections.
arguingwithsignposts
@raven: growing up on the border of Louisiana, I’m well aware of how to eat mudbugs. But I don’t suck heads. :)
And I guess I’ll have to do some searching on where to get some mudbugs. Cajun food is a rarity around here.
danielx
@LanceThruster:
What, you got something against Ke$ha video commentary? Spoilsport. I admit it’s no substitute for the TBogg videos of Shakira’s ass, but you gotta get your cheap thrills where you can these days.
LanceThruster
@danielx:
There’s really a $ in Ke$ha? I thought it was a CC typo. Glob, I’m an old fart. When Rosario Dawson used the word “vagina” multiple times on Lawrence O’Donnell recently, the CC typer must have passed out because they skipped most of the adorable observations of hers to the end of the segment when vagina was no longer on her lips.
danielx
@dr. bloor:
Yup. If they get swamped it will be because of voter fraud, or because the Marquis is a lousy campaigner, or not enough conservatism, or the unavailability of enough tinfoil hats to block soshulist mind waves. Because aliens. Because brown people. Because George Soros. Because Hollywood. Because biased polls.
Because…all together now:
Conservatism can never fail, it can only be failed.
LanceThruster
@raven:
This Newty impersonator has him down pretty good, although Newticles talking about Clinton always brings up my bile when I think of his vendetta against the president while at the same time dipping his own candle wick of freedom.
DIAF, Newt.
arguingwithsignposts
@LanceThruster: I saw something posted about Reese Witherspoon’s bebeh yesterday, and thought to myself, “and people wonder why our democracy is in such a sad state.”
I mean, really, wtf?
jeffreyw
@raven: Those came from China.
LanceThruster
@arguingwithsignposts:
If it was on TMZ or something, I’d understand, and good for Ms. Witherspoon, but on a program called World News? Really?
WTF, indeed.
jeffreyw
Obama is liking his chances.
danielx
@arguingwithsignposts:
You’re just getting around to noticing that a large number of our fellow citizens are dumber than a barrel of hair and would rather watch American Idol than a debate over the fate of humanity?
Irving
@maryQ: It’s not 111-dimensional chess or anything that arcane, it’s really not. He makes a game plan. He sticks with it. He absolutely refuses to do anything remotely silly or goofy in public – he’s always “on stage”. When a “gaffe” does happen, or his opponents make one up, he address it directly rather than playing he-said/she-said – he either acknowledges the error or corrects the record. Contrast with Mitt, who’s let Obama’s attacks dictate the course of his campaign – we’re talking about foreign affairs and Medicare and just about any other subject out there instead of the economy. Obama’s dictating the course of Mitt’s campaign, simply by playing superb defense and letting the offense do its thing.
LanceThruster
Hearing Joe always talk about when he was kicking 4ss in Congress with his scary talent makes me throw up a little in my mouth (at least it was a good dinner last night).
LanceThruster
Hearing Mika call Newt “Mr. Professor” makes me think of Peter Falk calling for Jack Lemon in “The Great Race.”
“Hey, Perfessorrr!”
Glob, Natalie Wood was pretty.
[sigh]
Shalimar
@JPL:
Why is that your nightmare scenario? I understand he is more extreme than Boehner, but I don’t see how it makes any difference. What will the House do under Cantor that they haven’t already done in the last 2 years under Boehner? As far as I can tell, Cantor is already in control of their caucus whenever there is any disagreement.
Comrade Nimrod Humperdink
JoeScar’s a grade A douchebag, but every now and again he’ll give me something to enjoy. The other day when Rmoney decided he wanted to hear a different chant than the one the crowd at his rally was giving him and tried to change it, to stone silence, Joe just facepalmed and said “Oh sweet Jesus…” His tears give me a happy moment, and sometimes he’ll have an interesting guest when Meachem and Halperin and the Politico monkeys get tired wrists.
LanceThruster
Dancing Dave is gracing my screen!
Isn’t he dreamy?
arguingwithsignposts
@danielx: This is a chicken-egg argument. Sure, it’s easy to appeal to the lizard brain in everyone, but high-minded ideals about self-governance are also founded on the notion of an informed electorate. You get the electorate you create. Which – depending on which conspiracy theory you want to ascribe to – could be the preferred effect.
@Irving:
This is just not true. He does goofy stuff in public. He danced with Ellen. He sang Al Green (?), he bowled! It’s just that when he does something silly or goofy, it’s “endearing” silly or goofy, not face/palm silly or goofy. He’s not Obama-wan Kenobi.
bemused
@LanceThruster:
Joe must be awake late into the night trying to come up with new ways to put lipstick on the GOP pig of a party on his show.
raven
@arguingwithsignposts: Wally world sells chinese tails.
raven
@LanceThruster: Oh, he was on?
LanceThruster
@Comrade Nimrod Humperdink:
It gived me a happy too, but often I think it’s a ploy so he can pretend to have bona fides when he does his “both sides do it” spiel.
Got to jump in the shower and wash Morning Stench away.
TTFN.
LanceThruster
@raven:
With Dee Dee Myers, no less.
1badbaba3
Sweet Jeebus…
Tee hee hee.
Not stale yet.
Also too…Mikaaaaaaaaa! ! ! ! (say it like Stanley The K)
arguingwithsignposts
@raven: not my wally world. :( I can’t even get boudain nearby. I’m sure I could probably drive up to Champaign and find it.
Paul
@LanceThruster:
He is a Republican. It would be newsworthy if he didn’t stand up for Romney.
I wish people on the left would stop watching him so he could eventually be replaced due to poor ratings.
raven
@jeffreyw: This is my friends old Champaign Taste blog. She ran out of gas but it was fun.
raven
@arguingwithsignposts: The chinese mudbugs are often sold under a Louisiana label. Also, there is a boil in Urbana every year.
smilepolitely.com/food/local_food_events_popping_up_everywhere/
LanceThruster
@Paul:
People in the former USSR could gleen the real news from Pravda by reading between the lines. I think MJ serves somewhat the same function. Also too, see my comments above about limited morning news and info programs. Local news will be covering sports, weather, and traffic (as well as any overnight killings or car crashes).
I could switch over to Faux and Fiends to see if short-skirt Blondie will pull a Sharon Stone I suppose.
PeakVT
@JPL: If the Republicans hold the House, having Cantor as Speaker of the House is the best thing that could happen for the Democrats. He’s prick that looks like a prick and acts like a prick. They’re going to obstruct not matter what, but Cantor will rub the public the wrong way while doing it.
Napoleon
@LanceThruster:
That is an understatement.
jeffreyw
@raven: Crawfish boil!
arguingwithsignposts
@raven: I’ll have to mark that on my calendar for next year.
Comrade Nimrod Humperdink
@Paul: My problem, frankly, is that he’s really the only person in his timeslot that does what he does. Other morning shows do fluffy human interest stuff and fat happy weatherman gimmicks and skim over current events from 30,000 feet. Bores me to tears. I live abroad now but I get sucked back into msnbc at election time, without fail. Maddow and Chris Hayes are the only hosts I really like all that much, but I’ll let Tweety or Ed Shultz or O’Donnell shout at me for a few minutes if they’re covering something of interest. The horserace shit is addictive and partly junk, sure, but EVERY POINT ROMNEY DROPS is another potential pickup in the House. Every, single, point. Plus, shit, the Romney campaign has given me some of the most enjoyable rubbernecking I’ve had since got addicted to this stuff.
Kane
Anyone who watched the republican convention could see that even republicans were rejecting their own package. They did all they could to run away from the issues, and they couldn’t even defend their own policies. You don’t spend three days defensively repeating the mantra of We built that if you have viable solutions to offer. How could anyone take republicans seriously after watching their convention?
LanceThruster
@Napoleon:
[heavy sigh]
TS
Romney “spokespeople” keep repeating the meme that Romney will get the votes because the economy is so bad – no other reason needed for why the republicans in congress voted against any bills that just might have helped the economy recover.
They want the economy to fail – and all the devastation that follows so President Obama can be defeated.
If Romney did win – there is little doubt that there would suddenly be bipartisan support for jobs bills and spending.
LanceThruster
Thomas Frank rocks. His C-SPAN/Book TV appearance was awesome.
J.D. Rhoades
@Soonergrunt:
Conservatism cannot fail. It can only be failed by the insufficiently conservative. The answer, of course, is to nominate someone next time who is an “authentic” conservative.
The problem, of course, is that all the ‘authentic” conservatives they ran in this election turned out to be unelectable. Because in addition to the “low taxes, small government” message, they can’t resist the racism, sexism, hatred for the poor, the sick, and the disabled, and homophobia that turns the majority of people off.
kay
I saw Obama speak Wednesday. He’s been President for 4 years, and it shows. He’s completely comfortable in that role.
He’s thinner and grayer and he has lines on his face but he’s confident and in control. One gets the feeling that a public appearance is the easiest part of his day.
Candidate Obama won’t be debating Mitt Romney.
President Obama will, and Mitt Romney hasn’t had A job in years, let alone THAT job.
Comrade Nimrod Humperdink
@LanceThruster: Tom Frank rules. If he had any real sway Elizabeth Warren would be the rule rather than the exception.
maryQ
@Irving: you’re right, of course. He’s really just playing a good game of checkers against guys who lose at tic tac toe, even if they make the first move.
J.D. Rhoades
@LanceThruster:
The JoeBag is also spinning that in many areas Mittens is tightening the race and merely needs a good debate showing to surge ahead.
Yeah, this seems to be their big talking point now. “Romney will destroy Obambi at the first debate if there’s no teleprompter, and the polls will magically turn around.” They really believe their own myths.
General Stuck
Lawsy sakes. If this downpour of shit keeps up, It might make me feel sorry for the soulless money grubber
Ouch!!
Comrade Nimrod Humperdink
@J.D. Rhoades: Todd Akin, Michele Bachman, Allen West, Joe Walsh, Darrell Issa, Louie Gohmert, Jon Kyl, Jim Inhofe, Jim DeMint, Tom Coburn, and Jeff Sessions are magnificently authentic conservatives. Nobody questions their devotion to the cause. But nobody with any power wants them running for President, either… Can’t imagine why.
LanceThruster
@Comrade Nimrod Humperdink:
So true. In his “Pity the Poor Billionaire” talk, he cited how past policies worked in getting US out of depression (HINT – it was not “trickle down”).
LanceThruster
@J.D. Rhoades:
Can’t wait to drink their sweet tears the morning after debate night.
I want Mittens to try that move of grabbing the President’s shoulder like he did with Rick Perry, and then have Mittens wrestled to the ground by the Secret Service and tazed repeatedly.
Comrade Nimrod Humperdink
@LanceThruster: Here’s the thing about the debates: Romney HAS to kick Obama’s ass to the same degree that Kerry kicked Bush around in the first debate just to even make it fucking interesting. So Money Boo Boo is gonna come out swinging. Obama is a counterpuncher. It’s what he does. He stays cool, waits for the opponent to overextend, and then POW. If Romney was the one in the driver’s seat right now Obama would have a harder time for a variety of reasons in the debates, but style is an important consideration.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
So, I was looking at the balloons at the Guardian’s election site and noticed something, ah, different about their drawing of Obama. Granted that it’s obvious that the artist mirrored the body on the Romney sketch, are people really unaware that men’s clothing never, ever buttons right-over-left?
Napoleon
@LanceThruster:
Years ago I use to work with someone who looked just like her. Made me look forward to work.
arguingwithsignposts
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism: Okay, now i have seen the stupidest electoral vote graphic of this election.
LanceThruster
@Napoleon:
It’s amazing how that works. Makes you glad to be alive.
I get that feeling watching the Rockette-style high kickers in Iron Man garb for the AC/DC “Shoot to Thrill” promotional video for IM2 at a concert in Argentina.
Zzzzap!
Emma
@General Stuck: I think I will add a dollop of Penderyn to my morning coffee. WHEEEEE!!!!!
LanceThruster
@Napoleon:
This is the pic I wanted to post, but 3x it did not take.
add (without dashers and before the /image part after the ://
http://?????????/image/1838906/600full-natalie-wood.jpg
i-2-.-l-i-s-t-a-l.com
Napoleon
@LanceThruster:
Funny thing, after my last post I google the girl I use to work with and she must be a full blown wingnut. Her facebook page likes are stuff like Sean Hanity, Palin, Paul Ryan (but no Romney).
danielx
@arguingwithsignposts:
As you say. Self-governance requires an informed electorate, but that electorate has to want to be informed, and a lot of people don’t. They don’t have time, or it’s too much trouble, or it would require critical thinking skills which they’ve never developed. It could be argued that it is not in the interests of…whomever…for the electorate to be informed, because if they were they just might notice how they’re being screwed, and why, and by whom.
George Carlin had a routine about education which was hilarious, but all too accurate…
youtube.com/watch?v=acLW1vFO-2Q
Napoleon
@LanceThruster:
Great pic – that is going to be all I think of today, at least until Romneys daily dose of self distructive behavor.
hep kitty
Another shooting, 4 dead
hep kitty
@LanceThruster: Funny, I had Sex & the Single Girl on in the background whilst preparing for work this morning. It really must have been something to have been that incredibly beautiful!
She could have done SOOO much better than Robert Wagner, why she stuck with him I don’t know. And perhaps she would be alive today, not that he killed her but I’m not sure he was too interested in saving her. Guess we’ll never know.
I guess most people think it’s really schmaltzy, but I love the part in Gypsy where she sings to the little lamb. It is soooo sweet and she is so precious, even if too old for the part, she made it convincing. That scene makes me cry.
I’m straight, but she’s one of those few actresses I’m in love with in a completely non-gay way.
hep kitty
And Ava Gardner!
arguingwithsignposts
@danielx:
And again it comes to a chicken/egg thing. Being informed is not highly valued by many, and it’s a cultural thing here in the US. People are proud of being non-participants and, frankly, ignorant. This is not universal.
We could have a better informed electorate. But it would take generations and, frankly, an entire change in our worldview.
Elizabelle
@PeakVT:
Eric Cantor’s Bitch Face.
ericcantorsbitchface.tumblr.com/
One tires, eventually, of the f-bombs, but some wicked funny captions.
And that mug.
Steeplejack
@LanceThruster:
Fixed link here.
Rick Taylor
I think it’s a good omen Krugman is optimistic. When did that last happen?
dance around in your bones
@jeffreyw: I love that so much.
Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God
@PeakVT:
This.
The Dem House ads for 2014 could just be video of Cantor being Cantor.
LanceThruster
@hep kitty:
How funny, I was thinking the same thing. Though who one loves is always a strictly personal choice, I sometimes wonder if it’s an “industry” thing (him being quite the ‘hot property’ at the time).
I felt Wagner’s TV roles were largely mediocre (but then you can say that about most TV), but I know I wouldn’t turn down a paycheck either. I thought he was quite suited for his Austen Powers role.
LanceThruster
@Steeplejack:
Thank you, Steeplejack.
Much appreciated.
LanceThruster
@Napoleon:
Even with the best visuals, the crazy factor detracts from it so damn much.
Or something like that.Suffern Ace
@Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God: Boehner may cry, but Cantor actually whines unless he’s being smug.
LanceThruster
@hep kitty:
NTTAWWT
xD
grandpa john
@Linda: that’s because we don’t go all in with the belief that the “ends justify the means” and thus we don’t stoop to lying, cheating, vote stealing etc. that the repubs believe is OK as long as they win.
J R in WV
@Comrade Nimrod Humperdink:
I beg to differ – none of those guys is really conservative at all, they’re all powermad feudalists.
Think about real conservatism, Teddy Roosevelt, for example. Created the National Parks system, conserved nature, protected the helpless, these are true conservation, which is the root of conservative.
The guys you list believe in mining Yellowstone Park for gold, drilling off the National Seashores for oil, letting Granny starve if she buys her medications. None of those plans are conservative. A real conservative would want to save the off-shore oil in case we need it for a rainy decade a hundred years from now.
And letting Granny starve – what can you say? Not conservative throwing the grandparents in the ditch under the bus!
And also too, in Europe many things are the opposite of the American way, even buttons and zippers.