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You are here: Home / Just release and you will find

Just release and you will find

by DougJ|  October 14, 20132:26 pm| 132 Comments

This post is in: Riveted By The Sociological Significance Of It All, Their Motto: Apocalypse Now, We Are All Mayans Now

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I haven’t gotten into the “rest of the world is laughing at us” stuff because I think the “rest of the world” is pretty fucked up too. But if this happens, then well, yeah, they should laugh at us (via):

Here’s a cheerful thought as Congress remains deadlocked over the debt ceiling and the hours tick away toward default: Senator Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), who basically forced the shutdown and whose own private polls have convinced him that it has been a glorious success, at this point could probably force a default and global economic calamity on his own—if he were so inclined. The Treasury Department says U.S. borrowing authority will expire on Thursday.

How could this happen? Because the Senate can move quickly when necessary, but only by unanimous consent. Let’s say Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) strike a deal today (that’s looking unlikely). Cruz surely won’t like it and has said repeatedly, “I will do everything necessary and anything possible to defund Obamacare.” If he’s true to his word, he could drag out the proceedings past Thursday and possibly well beyond. “If a determined band of nut jobs wants to take down the global economy, they could do it,” says Jim Manley, a former top staffer for Reid. “Under Senate rules, we are past the point of no return—there’s not anything Reid or McConnell could do about it.”

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Reader Interactions

132Comments

  1. 1.

    Botsplainer

    October 14, 2013 at 2:29 pm

    Yes, there is something they can do. Hold a vote and let Cruz, Lee, Paul, Inhofe and any other nutbag stand there in the well while impotently screaming about parliamentary procedure and how that can’t happen.

    Replay the segment over and and over on every fucking network.

  2. 2.

    Southern Beale

    October 14, 2013 at 2:31 pm

    Fuck Senate rules. When the rules enable one crackpot to cause global economic calamity, it’s time for NEW RULES, DAMMITZ

  3. 3.

    Davis X. Machina

    October 14, 2013 at 2:34 pm

    Remember, like the sermon says. “One man, with Jesus, is a majority.”

    These people aren’t big on majoritarianism.

  4. 4.

    MattF

    October 14, 2013 at 2:34 pm

    OT, or maybe it falls under the ‘Mayan’ tag… Josh Barro skins, filets, slices, dices Niall Ferguson. And then he gets nasty:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/niall-ferguson-uses-twitter-science-to-prove-he-is-better-than-everyone-2013-10?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+businessinsider+(Business+Insider)

  5. 5.

    Ruckus

    October 14, 2013 at 2:35 pm

    If the situation wasn’t so serious, I’d be laughing at us.
    But it really isn’t funny.
    Not in the least little bit.

  6. 6.

    Baud

    October 14, 2013 at 2:37 pm

    This plan would require a level of personal accountability that no Republican has yet displayed.

  7. 7.

    Belafon

    October 14, 2013 at 2:38 pm

    There’s exactly one data point I can give for why Cruz won’t do that: When they did the last vote in the Senate on the CR, he voted with the other Republicans. Not that you can build a pattern out of one data point.

    What will be awesome is watching him blame House Republicans for not having a spine.

  8. 8.

    shortstop

    October 14, 2013 at 2:39 pm

    I’ve been wondering for a while whether we shouldn’t take the focus off reforming the filibuster and put it onto nixing unanimous consent. The amount of mischief it regularly causes–not including crashing the world economy, which is not “mischief” but a fucking calamity–is quite large.

  9. 9.

    Paul in KY

    October 14, 2013 at 2:40 pm

    If the GOP really wanted to put this behind them, I imagine they would make Sen. Rafael Cruz an offer he couldn’t refuse, ay.

  10. 10.

    Anoniminous

    October 14, 2013 at 2:43 pm

    Not up to Reid. Biden, as Vice President, can control what business and under what Rules comes before the Senate. An example is turning the Senate into a Committee of the Whole, not done since the 80s, which changes Senate parliamentary procedure in ways I don’t fully understand but I do know it is a suspension of the regular rules and procedures.

    ETA: The Vice President can become the President of the Senate anytime he chooses.

  11. 11.

    KG

    October 14, 2013 at 2:43 pm

    @Davis X. Machina: heh, majoritarianism reminded me of something… so a little google-fu led me to this link, and this awesome quote:

    “Constitutional majoritarians” are believers in checks and balances and separation of powers and the federal system, but also subscribers to the view that majorities working through representative institutions must ultimately control the direction of the country, bound only by the Constitution’s directives.
    “Elitist anti-majoritarians,” by contrast, believe that no matter what popular opinion expressed through representative institutions may believe, that there are certain policy choices that must be imposed on the country, even if there is no clear constitutional backing for such a choice, and even if that choice has no history of legislative consent. In recent years, elitist anti-majoritarians have, for example, been committed to the abolition of the death penalty and for the imposition of same sex marriage, but they have many other policy preferences as well.

    Majoritarianism is a great thing when you’re in the majority, but when you’re not? Eh…

  12. 12.

    Morbo

    October 14, 2013 at 2:44 pm

    And 45% of the country would still blame the resulting economic catastrophe on Obama.

  13. 13.

    pseudonymous in nc

    October 14, 2013 at 2:46 pm

    “Ted Cruz, the outspoken freshman senator from Texas, was found bound and gagged in a Senate cloakroom after the chamber voted to raise the debt ceiling and open the government.

    “Senator David Vitter was not available for comment.”

  14. 14.

    shelly

    October 14, 2013 at 2:47 pm

    would make Sen. Rafael Cruz an offer he couldn’t refuse, ay.

    Send him to Belize.

  15. 15.

    scav

    October 14, 2013 at 2:48 pm

    Not funny? You swan around, telling everyone how’s it’s done, invading a few countries along the way because they’re not doing it right and leaving them limping along when you get bored. Do that and how couldn’t there be a not so suppressed giggle when you wake up wearing a ham sandwich as a hat with dumb things written on your face in sharpie, especially when you wrote them yourself?

    Laughing isn’t restricted to the perfected. Even in dire times.

  16. 16.

    Lawrence

    October 14, 2013 at 2:49 pm

    Of all the sickeningly wealthy people and organizations in the world who could get gored by this freakshow, none of them has put a horse head in Boehner’s bed? Where’s the mob when you need them?

  17. 17.

    srv

    October 14, 2013 at 2:52 pm

    After the economic collapse, Cruz will call for Texas’ secession and declare himself Emperor.

    Obama, unable to deal with the national crises green lights a Mexican invasion of Texas. Cruz and club are slaughtered at the Alamo.

  18. 18.

    dmsilev

    October 14, 2013 at 2:52 pm

    My understanding is that the 30 hours of post-cloture debate (which is what sets the timescale) is something that can be waived if both the Majority and Minority leaders agree to do so. In other words, if our backs really are to the wall, McConnell has the ability to give Cruz et al. the middle finger.

  19. 19.

    Baud

    October 14, 2013 at 2:54 pm

    @dmsilev:

    Is that 30 hours per side or total? The Dems would waive their side, at least, and you can leave the Senate open 24 hours to use up the rest by Thursday, if needed.

  20. 20.

    TriassicSands

    October 14, 2013 at 2:54 pm

    I don’t think laughing is what the rest of the world is doing at this point. The fact that a bunch of immature, mindless lunatics in the US can threaten the well-being of people across the planet is not a laughing matter.

  21. 21.

    Davis X. Machina

    October 14, 2013 at 2:54 pm

    @Lawrence:

    Where’s the mob when you need them?

    Watching “Duck Dynasty.” No examples yet in history of a mob storming the castle with pitchforks in one hand and remotes in the other.

    WWI took the shape it did, because we had in the preceding decades industrialized killing, and had no real idea of what that meant, until it was played out in practice – and the great-and-good were horrified by the consequences too late.

    What the consequences in modern, advanced democracies are of having industrialized distraction to the same, or greater, extent remains to be seen.

  22. 22.

    Emma

    October 14, 2013 at 2:55 pm

    @MattF: Whoa, Nellie. That’s going to leave lash marks.

  23. 23.

    aimai

    October 14, 2013 at 2:58 pm

    @MattF: That piece was the only bright spot in my day.

  24. 24.

    MattR

    October 14, 2013 at 3:02 pm

    So, am I supposed to be pulling all my money out of the stock market until this crisis passes?

  25. 25.

    John O

    October 14, 2013 at 3:02 pm

    CNN is leading me to believe that the Dems are going to cave yet again.

  26. 26.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 14, 2013 at 3:02 pm

    @TriassicSands:

    I don’t think laughing is what the rest of the world is doing at this point.

    Most don’t have that luxury, too watch the world go boom, that rich Republicans in the Congress and Senate have.

  27. 27.

    The Other Chuck

    October 14, 2013 at 3:04 pm

    The Sergeant At Arms of the US Senate carries a big heavy ceremonial mace with him. Just once I’d like to see him split some motherfucker’s skull with it. I think that would be a good case for it.

  28. 28.

    dmsilev

    October 14, 2013 at 3:04 pm

    @John O: I was optimistic, but then I read this:

    Veteran political journalist Mark Halperin said Monday that Democrats know they are winning the battle over the government shutdown and all that’s left is negotiating the Republicans’ “surrender.”
    “It’s just a question of the terms of surrender right now,” Halperin said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” “Part of what’s driving the dynamic is Democrats know they are winning and Harry Reid and the White House have the attitude of, ‘Why should we give anything because they’re coming our way,’ and they’re waiting.”

    As Halperin is someone who is wrong with near-Kristolian levels of regularity, we should all be very afraid.

  29. 29.

    Baud

    October 14, 2013 at 3:04 pm

    @John O:

    Well then CNN has successfully done what it set out to do.

    ETA:
    @dmsilev: If Bill Kristol says we’ve won, then we’re really doomed.

  30. 30.

    Shakezula

    October 14, 2013 at 3:05 pm

    @srv: Cruz Missile wouldn’t make it out of D.C. before he becomes chow for our thriving population of scavenger birds. His sort likes to hang around and gloat.

  31. 31.

    anthrosciguy

    October 14, 2013 at 3:05 pm

    Captain Kirk showed the way with the Kobayashi Maru. They give you an impossible, no win scenario, you change the rules. It’s pretty damned simple.

  32. 32.

    Botsplainer

    October 14, 2013 at 3:06 pm

    @pseudonymous in nc:

    “Senator David Vitter was not available for comment.”

    “But was instead in his office, searching for a credit card with a high limit while calling around and asking that whoever it was that did the binding needs to give him a call”.

  33. 33.

    SFAW

    October 14, 2013 at 3:06 pm

    @Lawrence:

    none of them has put a horse head in Boehner’s bed?

    Interesting that “Rafalca” and “Rafalcruz” sound so similar. Maybe a hard-of-hearing hit man could send a message to both Romney and the Teabaggers?

    I’m sure there’s a great joke to be made in there, somewhere, but I can’t figure it out. Maybe you can, dmsilev?

  34. 34.

    Roger Moore

    October 14, 2013 at 3:07 pm

    @MattR:

    So, am I supposed to be pulling all my money out of the stock market until this crisis passes?

    If you don’t know the answer to this kind of question without asking on random internet forums, the answer is probably no. If you think you know the answer and just want some confirmation, you’ll probably be too late by the time you get it.

  35. 35.

    Ash Can

    October 14, 2013 at 3:07 pm

    OT, but there’s a FP piece up at LGF right now on the subject of the original planners of yesterday’s (Not Quite) Million (Not Quite) Vet March being all butthurt about their event being “hijacked” by people who made the event look really fucking stupid “political.” Nothing that some decent flea powder can’t fix for them, I’m sure.

  36. 36.

    dmsilev

    October 14, 2013 at 3:07 pm

    And Holy Shifting Narratives, Batman! Politco currently has a photo slideshow entitled “McConnell and Reid’s friendship”. Wasn’t it just this morning that we were solemnly informed that these two were the leaders of the Jets and Sharks and that a rumble was planned for this afternoon?

    (admit it, Congress would be much more interesting if Senators entered the floor dancing to Bernstein’s music)

  37. 37.

    dmsilev

    October 14, 2013 at 3:08 pm

    @SFAW:

    I’m sure there’s a great joke to be made in there, somewhere, but I can’t figure it out. Maybe you can, dmsilev?

    Sorry, I got nothing. Maybe a ‘horse’s ass mistaken for horse’s head’ thing. I dunno.

  38. 38.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 14, 2013 at 3:10 pm

    @John O: CNN’s breathless coverage is almost always wrong. Switch off the cable and step away from the remote.

  39. 39.

    John O

    October 14, 2013 at 3:10 pm

    POTUS reportedly “likes what he’s hearing” coming out of the Senate.

    Maybe the wingnuts in the House will still shoot it down. One can hope. This should be taken all the way.

    How depressing. It looks like we go through this all over again in a matter of months.

  40. 40.

    Shakezula

    October 14, 2013 at 3:10 pm

    The reason Ferguson wants to talk about civility is that he can’t talk about not being full of crap.

    I propose Ferguson’s Law – In any debate, accusations of incivility indicate the accuser is full of crap.

  41. 41.

    JaneE

    October 14, 2013 at 3:11 pm

    How long does it take to expel someone from the Senate?

  42. 42.

    Another Holocene Human

    October 14, 2013 at 3:12 pm

    @anthrosciguy: i guess you haven’t seen the new Star Trek.

    Don’t. It’s not worth it.

  43. 43.

    Lawrence

    October 14, 2013 at 3:14 pm

    @SFAW: And by “horse” I mean “Grover Norquist”.

  44. 44.

    The Red Pen

    October 14, 2013 at 3:14 pm

    @JaneE:

    How long does it take to expel someone from the Senate?

    When New Jersey Senator John P. Stockton blocked the passage of the 14th Amendment by one vote, it took minutes to throw him out.

    It would be easy to remove Cruz. Just get another young Senator to start punching him in the face. Both Senators are removed for fighting and the rest vote unanimously.

    The hard part will be getting the volunteer to stop punching him in the face.

  45. 45.

    Roger Moore

    October 14, 2013 at 3:14 pm

    @Shakezula:

    I propose Ferguson’s Law – In any debate, accusations of incivility indicate the accuser is full of crap.

    That’s pretty good, but I think it can be refined some. In any debate, the side that abandons argument in favor of complaints about civility has lost.

  46. 46.

    kindness

    October 14, 2013 at 3:14 pm

    Well Harry Reid certainly COULD do something about it. Reid could (and should) bring up a motion calling for a rule change and in that rule change he should abolish the filibuster. Then a majority of Senators would pass that motion and Ted can go play with himself in corner for the rest of his term as far as I’m concerned. Seems to me tanking the nation is a good reason to gut the filibuster. Better than judges actually.

  47. 47.

    The Thin Black Duke

    October 14, 2013 at 3:16 pm

    @Another Holocene Human: Amen. Abrams could barely hide his contempt for the audience.

  48. 48.

    Roger Moore

    October 14, 2013 at 3:16 pm

    @Lawrence:

    And by “horse” I mean “Grover Norquist”.

    No. No. No! The correct end for Grover Norquist is for him to be found drowned in his bathtub. Nothing else can come close to the correct dramatic irony.

  49. 49.

    Botsplainer

    October 14, 2013 at 3:17 pm

    @Lawrence:

    Where’s the mob when you need them?

    Afraid of the power of the Koch brothers, undoubtedly. I imagine Auric Goldfinger, Karl Stromberg or Ernst Stavro Blofeld would easier to locate on a given day.

    I’m damned if I can find actual physical home addresses or events which will be visited by either Koch. They’ve been real secretive.

  50. 50.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    October 14, 2013 at 3:17 pm

    @Shakezula: Niall Ferguson has basically been engaged in one extended ad hominem attack on Paul Krugman and a few others, and I mean for some time now.

    Krugman for the most part has criticized Ferguson’s statements about economics, which are quite frequently comically wrong.

    The naked hypocrisy is only one of the things about Ferguson’s ranting that’s ridiculous. bit it’s a big one.

  51. 51.

    Bob's Had Enough

    October 14, 2013 at 3:19 pm

    @MattR:

    Here’s the best rule:

    Never pull your money out of the stock market until it’s time to spend it.

    And here’s the accompanying rule:

    Keep enough cash/cash equivalents on hand so that you can ride out up to two years of the market being in the dump so that you aren’t forced to sell out low.

  52. 52.

    SiubhanDuinne

    October 14, 2013 at 3:20 pm

    @Anoniminous:

    I think it’s about time to release the Kraken Biden!

  53. 53.

    Keith G

    October 14, 2013 at 3:21 pm

    I am a bit optimistic that the worst will be avoided – though I am not sure that I will like the deal that gets it done.

    On the other hand, I want to be sure that the GOP gets blamed (copiously and continually) for any negative fallout. I would appreciate it if Democratic leaders, POTUS incl., would go for as much time in front of the press as possible. The GOP is about to hurt America in ways that Bin Laden could only dream of. The GOP is already destroying jobs and soon will be destroying many more at a faster rate.

    While there appears to be some debate over how many times a person needs to see an advertising message before a response is made, it always seemed to me that the GOP was much more intent on using such behavior to create a lasting horrible image of Democrats than vise versa.

    I want Obama and the Democrats to commit to frame a blistering image of the GOP that will fully tarnish them for a decade. Cruz, Boehner, and the rest are very vulnerable to the type of media campaign that Bill Clinton used against Gingrich and Dole.

  54. 54.

    SiubhanDuinne

    October 14, 2013 at 3:24 pm

    @John O:

    CNN is leading me to believe that the Dems are going to cave yet again.

    That would be CNN’s job description.

  55. 55.

    Shakezula

    October 14, 2013 at 3:26 pm

    @Roger Moore: Even more appropriate. Who even thinks that way?
    “I think A is true.”
    “Good grief, everyone knows A is false.”
    “You’re rude, therefore A is true!”

    @Bill E Pilgrim: I’ve been following it through Lawyers, Guns & Money. He (NF) doesn’t strike me as the most rational of people.

  56. 56.

    Paul in KY

    October 14, 2013 at 3:27 pm

    @Keith G: We should hang this around their neck till it rots (like in Ancient Mariner).

    No quarter!

  57. 57.

    SFAW

    October 14, 2013 at 3:28 pm

    @dmsilev:

    Sorry, I got nothing. Maybe a ‘horse’s ass mistaken for horse’s head’ thing.

    You’re too modest. I knew I could count on you. Thanks!

  58. 58.

    Roger Moore

    October 14, 2013 at 3:29 pm

    @Shakezula:
    Maybe a slightly more succinct “Complaining about civility rather than arguing the facts shows you know you’re wrong” or “People only complain about civility when the facts are against them”.

  59. 59.

    John O

    October 14, 2013 at 3:30 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    Yeah, I know. But if you listen just right, you can hear the Senate Dems and POTUS giving in and taking a delay of the medical device tax, which I see as a major concession from the rhetoric coming out of the WH, which I very had been enjoying quite a bit until today.

    If you’re going to demand a clean CR and ceiling raise, you should stick to it. I realize the medical device tax is peanuts, but the politics is not.

    OTOH, maybe it’s all 11th dimensional chess because the President knows the House will shoot it down. I dunno…I’m watching CNN for Chrissakes.

  60. 60.

    SiubhanDuinne

    October 14, 2013 at 3:32 pm

    @TriassicSands:

    I don’t think laughing is what the rest of the world is doing at this point.

    Maybe not, but they are farting in our general direction.

  61. 61.

    SiubhanDuinne

    October 14, 2013 at 3:33 pm

    @John O:
    I don’t disagree with anything you said. Haven’t been watching CNN, so have no idea what they’re floating.

  62. 62.

    gbear

    October 14, 2013 at 3:34 pm

    @Bob’s Had Enough:

    Keep enough cash/cash equivalents on hand so that you can ride out up to two years of the market being in the dump so that you aren’t forced to sell out low

    Fantastic advice for all of us who are living with two weeks’ cash reserves.

  63. 63.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    October 14, 2013 at 3:35 pm

    @Shakezula: Agreed.

    Your example in your response to Roger by the way is the very definition of argumentum ad hominem. It’s come to be used to mean simply “making a personal attack” but the original meaning was a logical fallacy or irrelevance that disqualified it as a valid argument.

    There’s also argumentum ad eminem, which is just as invalid but sounds way cooler.

  64. 64.

    SFAW

    October 14, 2013 at 3:38 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim:

    Yeah, Niall’s a piece of work.

    Hey, Tom Levenson! Yeah, I’m talking to you! Can’t you do anything about those assholes up Mass Ave from you, the ones what keep giving Ferguson a paycheck? Can’t you thermite shut the gates to Ferguson’s office? Have a subterranean balloon inflate extremely violently when he walks over it? Stick NF in a CP cruiser and put it on The Great Dome (and lock the door behind you)? Get the lights in the Green Building to spell out something that will make him cry?

    I’m counting on you, Obi-Wan Kenobi Tom, you’re our only hope. Or not.

  65. 65.

    MattR

    October 14, 2013 at 3:41 pm

    @Bob’s Had Enough: Those are definitely good rules of thumb, but they also have exceptions. An obvious one would be if you had a bad feeling the stock market was going to tank in October 1929. And I am wondering if we are approaching a similar moment. If you have a strong belief the market is going to drop 10% in the next week or so, I think it makes sense to pull your money out even if you have no plans on spending that money anytime soon. The worst case scenario is that the market shoots up instead and you lose out on the chance to make money.

    @Roger Moore: It was a semi serious request for info, but in a way it was also a general critique on the commentary about the debt ceiling/defaulting. Perhaps I have not done enough digging, but I haven’t seen too many articles detailing what the fallout from a default would be. I know it would increase borrowing costs for the government, but would there be a direct hit on the stock market causing it to drop significantly or would the effect be something that does not hit the stock market immediately but creates conditions that will drastically slow any potential growth? Has the market already adjusted to this uncertainty so any drop will be relatively small?

    Obviously nobody can know the answer to any of these things, but it would be useful for the average investor to get some sort of insight on what to expect from knowledgable people (not CNBC). Personally IMO if you think the Republicans are going to hold out and lead us into a default of some sort, the risks associated with pulling your money out for a short time are significantly smaller than those of leaving it in.

  66. 66.

    scav

    October 14, 2013 at 3:42 pm

    I’m enjoying the hardball too, but with the stakes involved, I’ll take governance over immediate vengeance — especially if the vengeance can be prolonged with multiple stompings. Served Hot Tepid Cold and for desert please.

  67. 67.

    John O

    October 14, 2013 at 3:46 pm

    @MattR:

    Personally IMO if you think the Republicans are going to hold out and lead us into a default of some sort, the risks associated with pulling your money out for a short time are significantly smaller than those of leaving it in.

    I got out when the Dow was at 15,600 (ish), thinking exactly as you are. In some cases, the market is reasonably predictable.

    Your questions are good ones that I’ve been scouring the internets to answer, to no avail. I’ve even asked out here a couple of times. My conclusion: Nobody knows exactly what will happen, yet there is broad consensus that it would be bad. Thanks, internets!

  68. 68.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 14, 2013 at 3:47 pm

    @MattR: One of the primary assumptions of the modern portfolio theory, that rate of return on treasury bonds is free of default risk will violated, if we default on our debt. Risk free rate is no longer risk free.. This is uncharted territory and could very well tank the global asset markets and by that I don’t just mean stock markets.

  69. 69.

    Xantar

    October 14, 2013 at 3:50 pm

    Was there a post by Richard Mayhew that just disappeared?

  70. 70.

    Mary G

    October 14, 2013 at 3:51 pm

    Darrell Issa finally replied to my numerous phone calls, e-mails and finally a handwritten letter. Two pages of “it’s all President Obama’s fault; he won’t negotiate with us!”

    Weasel. Your response lacks credibility, Representative.

    ETA: the handwritten letter was by me, despite my severe arthritis, to try to make him realize I am serious about getting him out of office unless he shapes up.

  71. 71.

    dmsilev

    October 14, 2013 at 3:51 pm

    Just keeping fucking that chicken, GOP:

    A new high of 74 percent of Americans disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling Washington’s budget crisis, up significantly in the past two weeks and far exceeding disapproval of both President Obama and congressional Democrats on the issue.
    The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that criticism of the GOP’s handling of the budget dispute has grown by 11 percentage points since just before the partial government shutdown began, from 63 to 70 and now 74 percent – clearly leaving the party with the lion’s share of blame. Indeed 54 percent now “strongly” disapprove.

    Also, too, do the Republicans *really* want to go through this again just a few months before the midterms?

  72. 72.

    John O

    October 14, 2013 at 3:53 pm

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    I’ll bet those primary assumptions assume rational actors in the drama.

  73. 73.

    Bob's Had Enough

    October 14, 2013 at 3:54 pm

    Via Spandan at The People’s View –

    Rep. Van Hollen completely embarrassed the House Republicans by calling them on changing the rules of the House to keep the government shutdown, on the eve of the beginning of the shutdown.

  74. 74.

    rikyrah

    October 14, 2013 at 3:57 pm

    Corker: Republicans are ‘in a bad place’
    By Jonathan Easley – 10/14/13 07:44 AM ET

    Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) on Monday acknowledged that Republicans had taken a severe political hit from the government shutdown, saying the GOP was “in a bad place,” but getting closer to righting the ship.

    “Look, we’re in a bad place,” Corker said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” “Let’s face it, we all know that the House Republican strategy — that came from a few Senate Republicans, was the strategy that took us to where we are.”

    A rash of Republican infighting has boiled over because of the shutdown, as establishment Republicans have stood up to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and other members of the Tea Party, blaming them for instigating the showdown without a defined endgame.

    Read more: http://thehill.com/video/in-the-news/328289-corker-were-in-a-bad-place#ixzz2hjCdHK5e
    Follow us: @thehill on Twitter | TheHill on Facebook

  75. 75.

    John O

    October 14, 2013 at 3:57 pm

    “Income verification” of the ACA still “on the table” according to Dem sources via Dana Bash, whom I’ve always found to be pleasantly reliable.

  76. 76.

    beltane

    October 14, 2013 at 3:59 pm

    @Xantar: Yes. It was an interesting thread and now it’s gone. I feel this violates my constitutional rights in some way.

  77. 77.

    Belafon

    October 14, 2013 at 3:59 pm

    @John O: Get back on your medication man, or go get some. The only thing I know you for is “Oh, no, CNN said something that makes me worried.” And it’s not just for today.

  78. 78.

    MattR

    October 14, 2013 at 3:59 pm

    @John O: Thanks. Good to know I am not the only one having trouble getting precise details.

    @schrodinger’s cat: Yeah, a default would be bad on many levels that extend past the stock market. But I think the stock market is the only piece that I have any control over (with regards to my personal finances).

    @Xantar: Yes. Was in the middle of typing up a response when it disappeared. (EDIT: Might be because the article quoted was from SC but the analysis was based on NC)

  79. 79.

    beltane

    October 14, 2013 at 4:00 pm

    @rikyrah: Ted Cruz tried to blow up the bus, now he is going to be thrown under it.

  80. 80.

    raven

    October 14, 2013 at 4:01 pm

    @Xantar: God, I was thinking I had really lost it.

  81. 81.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 14, 2013 at 4:02 pm

    @MattR: Fixed income and money market funds will be affected too.

  82. 82.

    burnspbesq

    October 14, 2013 at 4:02 pm

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    Slow down there a sec. It is true that if there is no R*, then the answer to the capital asset pricing model is indeterminate, but what is more likely to happen is that a consensus on the best proxy for R* will emerge and all the valuation folks will just plug that new value into their models. I would go so far as to say that it’s not necessarily the case that folks won’t conclude that US Treasury securities are still the closest thing there is to a riskless asset. Where else are you going to go?

  83. 83.

    catclub

    October 14, 2013 at 4:02 pm

    “Under Senate rules, we are past the point of no return”

    The Senate can change its rules at any time. It may take 2/3’s votes to do it, but it can do it.

    That is without any nuclear option of forcing a rule change with 51.

    I think it would be incredibly hard to get done, even if we went past a debt default, but it _could_ happen.

    Like they say, the Constitution is not a suicide pact, and likewise for the senate rules.

  84. 84.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 14, 2013 at 4:04 pm

    @burnspbesq: In the short term yes, but investors will begin looking for alternatives if we actually default and the Republicans succeed in making the US a banana republic.

  85. 85.

    catclub

    October 14, 2013 at 4:04 pm

    @burnspbesq: Bitcoin? Canned tuna fish. Pure grain alcohol. Rainwater.

    “Where else are you going to go? “

  86. 86.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 14, 2013 at 4:05 pm

    @catclub: Whatever is the T-bill equivalent of the Euro or Yen.

  87. 87.

    dmsilev

    October 14, 2013 at 4:06 pm

    One of National Review’s reporters:

    Jonathan Strong ✔ @j_strong
    Growing sense of resignation among House R sources that whatever McConnell agrees to will be the deal. Doesn’t mean it will be pretty.

    This evening may be rather interesting. Potentially in the apocryphal-Chinese-curse sense of the word.

  88. 88.

    John O

    October 14, 2013 at 4:06 pm

    @Belafon:

    LOL. None taken.

    It’s funny because I fell of the wagon. YEARS of successful avoidance of TV news, down the drain over this fiasco…oh, don’t get me wrong, I’ve relapsed before. Your mass shootings/manhunts…stuff like that. But by and large I think it is very unhealthy to get your news from the TV.

    Sign me,

    Appropriately Medicated

  89. 89.

    Seanly

    October 14, 2013 at 4:07 pm

    @Bob’s Had Enough:

    My cash on hand is called having a f’king job and getting paid every 2 weeks. As it is for most Americans. I think we’re supremely f’ked.

    I, for one, look forward to the benevolent rule of Nightrider & Toecutter and their gang.

    I’m hoping Obama has a means to avoid the default. It’d be a great suckerpunch to the gut of the Republicans. He seems sublimely relaxed for someone who doesn’t have an Ace in the hole. Maybe he’s got an idea to avoid the default or maybe he’s actually the greatest poker player in the world.

  90. 90.

    MattR

    October 14, 2013 at 4:08 pm

    @schrodinger’s cat: Good point. Thanks for the correction.

  91. 91.

    beltane

    October 14, 2013 at 4:09 pm

    @Belafon: Reminds me of Upstate Dem, a notorious concern troll on DKos back in the 2006-08 era.

  92. 92.

    SFAW

    October 14, 2013 at 4:09 pm

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    Or Renminbi, which will probably be viable in 5-10 years.

    ETA: The “5-10 years” was just pulled outta my ass, I have no special knowledge nor edumacation regarding that stuff.

  93. 93.

    Shalimar

    October 14, 2013 at 4:14 pm

    @pseudonymous in nc: If Cruz wasn’t found wearing a diaper, Vitter didn’t do it.

  94. 94.

    Howard Beale IV

    October 14, 2013 at 4:14 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim: Ferguson is sorry excuse for a human being, let alone a Harvard prof.

  95. 95.

    fidelio

    October 14, 2013 at 4:15 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne: A view from Scandinavia.

    Some of them are laughing at us; some of them think we’re lost all contact with reality. Some are doing both.

  96. 96.

    Belafon

    October 14, 2013 at 4:16 pm

    @John O: I understand the urge to hang on CNN’s words, because i’m sure a lot of us would like to be telling Obama “Don’t take anything until they surrender” but he’s been pretty good. The Republicans are hurting and they know it.

    We don’t want to have to deal with whatever disappointment Obama hands us – “In return for a continuing resolution and debt ceiling increase, I will buy Boehner and McConnell each a case of 151” – all at once, but it really can burn you out believing you will be disappointed.

    Also, it’s CNN. Just blegh.

  97. 97.

    Ash Can

    October 14, 2013 at 4:17 pm

    @rikyrah:

    “Let’s face it, we all know that the House Republican strategy — that came from a few Senate Republicans, was the strategy that took us to where we are.”

    That looks like the money quote to me. If the Republicans can truly, genuinely, for-reals-this-time pin everything on Ted Cruz and then throw his sorry ass under the bus once and for all, then their “face-saving” maneuver can come in the form of McConnell, Boehner, and any other non-Teahadi Congressional Republicans grandly announcing that the Dems totally caved and gave them everything they wanted in the way of time frames for raising the debt ceiling, and they could even throw in some red-meat spin about the Dems wanting to keep the WWII Memorial shut down but the noble GOP saying “no way.”

    Unfortunately, these idiots are running out of time to engineer this, and the big assumption behind this scenario is that they have the guts and the smarts to see this as a plausible way out and act on it. I’m not holding my breath.

  98. 98.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    October 14, 2013 at 4:19 pm

    This blog seems to be going backwards in time. Second most recent post rising to the top…. wait, weren’t there thousands of commenters? Now there are just a dozen…. next you’ll be telling me no, no it was always just the two of us on this blog…

    Not sure if that’s from a Star Trek or Twilight Zone episode, maybe a combination of the two.

  99. 99.

    aimai

    October 14, 2013 at 4:19 pm

    @The Red Pen: Can I volunteer? Then we don’t lose a democratic vote.

  100. 100.

    SiubhanDuinne

    October 14, 2013 at 4:19 pm

    @raven:

    I too was perplexed. Also, befuddled.

  101. 101.

    KG

    October 14, 2013 at 4:20 pm

    @The Red Pen:

    The hard part will be getting the volunteer to stop punching him in the face.

    Seems more a feature than a bug…

  102. 102.

    burnspbesq

    October 14, 2013 at 4:20 pm

    @SFAW:

    Or Renminbi, which will probably be viable in 5-10 years.

    In order for RMB to be a viable candidate for global reserve currency, two things would have to happen: (1) China would have to dismantle its existing regime of currency controls, and (2) China would have to commit to actually letting RMB float. I’m not aware of anything that would lead me to believe that the current Chinese government would consider, even for a split second, doing either of those things.

  103. 103.

    John O

    October 14, 2013 at 4:23 pm

    @Belafon:

    I understand the urge to hang on CNN’s words, because i’m sure a lot of us would like to be telling Obama “Don’t take anything until they surrender” but he’s been pretty good. The Republicans are hurting and they know it.

    Precisely. I simply think from a negotiating point of view it is time to step on necks.

  104. 104.

    SFAW

    October 14, 2013 at 4:23 pm

    @aimai:

    Actually, if you were the one chosen to clock him, you could probably make a lot of money by raffling off your “winning ticket.” It ain’t PowerBall, but the psychic satisfaction would be pretty big. (I know it would for me, if I won.)

  105. 105.

    MikeJ

    October 14, 2013 at 4:24 pm

    @aimai:

    Can I volunteer? Then we don’t lose a democratic vote.

    We could raffle off the chance and solve the debt problem for all time.

  106. 106.

    burnspbesq

    October 14, 2013 at 4:26 pm

    This is kind of enjoyable: Dan Larison goes all sushi-chef on Erick son of Erick.

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/whats-wrong-with-movement-conservatism/

  107. 107.

    SiubhanDuinne

    October 14, 2013 at 4:26 pm

    @fidelio: That’s wonderful. Thanks!

    (For all its flaws, I do love that there’s so much cool stuff on the interweb tubes.)

  108. 108.

    SFAW

    October 14, 2013 at 4:27 pm

    @burnspbesq:

    As I said, I don’t know from nothin’. But: I was under the (perhaps grossly mistaken) impression that part of the reason they don’t let it float is them gaming the system while the dollar is still the currency “of record” (so to speak). Is that (at least partially) the case? Or am I, once again, clueless?

  109. 109.

    dmsilev

    October 14, 2013 at 4:27 pm

    @SFAW: You’re thinking small. First, we sell raffle tickets for the right to clock Senator Cruz. Then, we leverage against future ticket sales, collateralize the resulting debt issuance, sell off the various tranches to pension funds, and hedge against any possible market moves.

    What could possibly go wrong?

  110. 110.

    slippy

    October 14, 2013 at 4:27 pm

    @John O:

    OH, please Republicans drag America through this fucking charade every 2 months until the election in November 2014.

    Where we will horsewhip your candy asses bloody like you’ve never seen in the history of all time.

  111. 111.

    slippy

    October 14, 2013 at 4:28 pm

    @John O:

    OH, please Republicans drag America through this fucking charade every 2 months until the election in November 2014.

    Where we will horsewhip your candy asses bloody like you’ve never seen in the history of all time.

  112. 112.

    JordanRules

    October 14, 2013 at 4:28 pm

    Heh, nice job invoking Smokey, Doug.

  113. 113.

    Kay

    October 14, 2013 at 4:32 pm

    @dmsilev:

    The funniest part of that poll is how it’s almost identical to 1995. Obama/Clinton approve / disapprove and Democrats/ Republicans.

    They may have to repeat this a coupla more times before it sinks in.

    “Don’t shut down the government.” A note in the welcome packet when they swear in new GOP members of Congress.

  114. 114.

    Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)

    October 14, 2013 at 4:34 pm

    @schrodinger’s cat: You’re conflating two things that aren’t really identical: the risk-free interest rate and the reserve currency. Your post starts to leave the rails in the very first sentence:

    In theoretical finance, the rate on Treasury bills and bonds is considered the risk free bench mark rate.

    This is incorrect. In theoretical finance the risk-free rate is a theoretical abstraction. There is no such thing in the real world and there never has been. The rate on 30-day T-bills is used as a proxy for the risk-free rate in some but not all instances. When I was working as a trader we calculated a value for it on our own without reference to Treasuries at all. Actually, we worked backwards: we looked at the prices in the markets and then backed out what the consensus on interest rates must be.

    If we default it won’t change anyone’s ability to price anything. That’s not to say that it won’t be a calamity but it won’t be due to any disassociation between the risk-free rate and a lack of risk.

  115. 115.

    Bob's Had Enough

    October 14, 2013 at 4:35 pm

    Let’s see if I can get the link up this time. It’s a good watch. A true nailing to the barn.

    Screw this software. Seriously, it’s amateur hour stuff.

  116. 116.

    SFAW

    October 14, 2013 at 4:36 pm

    @dmsilev:

    What could possibly go wrong?

    I don’t know. Let me run it by Jamie Dimon, John Thain, Lloyd Blankfein, and a few of the other past/present Goldman Sachs boys. I’m sure they’ll give me the straight skinny.

  117. 117.

    Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)

    October 14, 2013 at 4:38 pm

    @SFAW: China has been doing a lot less currency manipulation over the last few years, though still some. And it isn’t a matter of gaming the system while the dollar is the reserve currency. They have manipulated their currency against all of their trading partners, not just the U.S.

  118. 118.

    burnspbesq

    October 14, 2013 at 4:41 pm

    @SFAW:

    But: I was under the (perhaps grossly mistaken) impression that part of the reason they don’t let it float is them gaming the system while the dollar is still the currency “of record” (so to speak). Is that (at least partially) the case?

    AFAIK, the primary reason why the Chinese have “managed” the USD/RMB exchange rate over the last couple of decades is to gain a price advantage for Chinese exporters.

  119. 119.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 14, 2013 at 4:43 pm

    @Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN):

    This is incorrect. In theoretical finance the risk-free rate is a theoretical abstraction.

    I am aware of that. The point I was making was that we are in uncharted waters by risking default.

    ETA: For all practical purposes investors do treat Tbills and bonds as having a practically zero risk of default.

  120. 120.

    Kay

    October 14, 2013 at 4:43 pm

    “It’s time for the president to be honest with the American people for a change. Defaulting on our national debt is an impeachable offense, and any attempt by President Obama to unilaterally raise the debt limit without Congress is also an impeachable offense,” she wrote.

    The nitwit is making promises to the GOP base, again. They must not be hitting the donate button often enough.

    Let the fleecing continue!

  121. 121.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 14, 2013 at 4:46 pm

    @Kay: Is that Palin?

  122. 122.

    LanceThruster

    October 14, 2013 at 4:48 pm

    Jimmy ‘The Saint’ Tosnia: You gave me your word!
    The Man With The Plan: I’m a criminal; my word don’t mean dick!

  123. 123.

    rikyrah

    October 14, 2013 at 4:49 pm

    Panic In the GOP: Disapproval of the Republican Party Hits A New Record High of 74%

    By: Jason Easley
    Monday, October 14th, 2013, 4:14 pm

    A new ABC News/Washington Post is putting more pressure on Republicans to surrender. The poll found that disapproval of the Republican handing of the crisis has reached a record high of 74%.

    If last week’s finding that a record 70% of Americans disapproved of the Republican Party’s handing of the government shutdown/debt ceiling scared Republicans, this week’s numbers explain why Mitch McConnell is running to Harry Reid to make a deal. In two weeks, disapproval of the Republican handling of the situation has gone from 60%-74%. A whopping 54% strongly disapprove of the way Republicans are handling the government shutdown and the debt ceiling. Congressional Democrats have a 61% disapproval rating on the handling of the shutdown and debt ceiling, but they are in a much better position than the Republican colleagues.

    The Republican Party’s plan to blame all of this on President Obama has failed miserably. It doesn’t matter how many times Republicans refer to “Obama’s shutdown.” The president’s polling remains virtually unchanged. Fifty percent disapproved of the president’s handling of the crisis last week. This week that number has risen three points to 53%. The American people are blaming all of Washington, but they are blaming Obama a whole lot less.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2013/10/14/panic-gop-disapproval-republican-party-hits-record-high-74.html

  124. 124.

    John O

    October 14, 2013 at 4:51 pm

    @Kay:

    Heads I win, tails you lose! Ergo, impeach!

    What a moron. The only consolation I have for her waning influence on popular opinion is that it will kill John McCain in the history books.

  125. 125.

    Kay

    October 14, 2013 at 4:52 pm

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    It is!

    She must be out of money. I think the reality tv show(s) bombed.

  126. 126.

    Kay

    October 14, 2013 at 5:00 pm

    @John O:

    Impeachment talk really bothers some people but I feel media and conservatives discredited it as a process so it doesn’t bother me. A threat delivered every three weeks really loses power.

    I do think it would drive up turnout, however (perhaps if coming closer to a midterm) but not on their side.

    It’s really breathtaking how undemocratic they are. They can’t wait to remove democratically-elected leaders with, you know, an election.

  127. 127.

    Riley's Enabler

    October 14, 2013 at 5:04 pm

    @burnspbesq: Thing of Beauty. Pass the wasabi.

  128. 128.

    SFAW

    October 14, 2013 at 5:05 pm

    @Kay:

    They can’t wait to remove democratically-elected leaders with, you know, an election.

    Well, that’s because they know that ACORN will steal any election for the commies/blahs/Lie-berals.

  129. 129.

    Roger Moore

    October 14, 2013 at 5:28 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim:

    It’s come to be used to mean simply “making a personal attack” but the original meaning was a logical fallacy or irrelevance that disqualified it as a valid argument.

    Strictly, argumentum ad hominem means claiming somebody’s argument is invalid because of their personal characteristics. So saying that we should ignore Ted Cruz because he’s a crazy wingnut is argumentum ad hominem. Note, though, that this can be used as an example of a different fallacy, assuming that point must be wrong because it’s supported by a fallacious argument. Just because “Ted Cruz is a wingnut, so he must be wrong” is fallacious doesn’t mean that Ted Cruz is right.

  130. 130.

    GHayduke (formerly lojasmo)

    October 14, 2013 at 5:41 pm

    @John O:

    “Dem sources”

    Ugh.

    -me.

  131. 131.

    ruemara

    October 14, 2013 at 5:43 pm

    @Bob’s Had Enough:

    Keep enough cash/cash equivalents on hand so that you can ride out up to two years of the market being in the dump so that you aren’t forced to sell out low.

    HAHAHAHAHAHA! I can stretch the $20 that’s usually left over mid-month, but even I’m not that good.

  132. 132.

    GHayduke (formerly lojasmo)

    October 14, 2013 at 5:50 pm

    @beltane:

    I remember that fucker.

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