While the MSM is still kvetching about Parisgate and the news that Centcom’s twitter account was hacked (please note, people, that Centcom’s twitter feed has as much to do with their operations as the WH Christmas Card has to do with pending legislation), this is happening:
Tuesday has been a great day for the labor market.
Small-business optimism is at a new postcrisis high. The NFIB small-business-optimism survey rose to 100.4 in December, the highest reading since October 2006.
Additionally, job openings rose to a new postcrisis high, and following these reports, economists can barely contain their excitement about the economy.
“The labor market isn’t just healing — it is red hot with nearly 5 million jobs available,” Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi’s Chris Rupkey said. “Slack in the economy isn’t just going away; it’s all but evaporated.”
The piece of the labor-market recovery that has been missing is wage gains, and the latest NFIB report showed that 25% of firms reported compensation increases over the past three months, while 17% expected to increase compensation over the next six months.
Seems to me that should be worthy of some air time, no?
Peale
If we can’t trust our tweets, who can we trust.
Villago Delenda Est
Only if full credit is given to Mitch McConnell.
The Ancient Randonneur
Oh my, does this mean I’m going to have to change the background color of my Twitter avatar again?
Cacti
The narrative was supposed to be that Obama had his wings clipped and was the lamest of lame ducks.
He didn’t follow the script and his public support has been climbing.
This is short-circuiting the Villagers’ internal programming so they’re trying to seize control of the narrative again.
Problem for them is, if people are working again and paying $1.90 for gas, they don’t care about who went to Paris or not.
Just Some Fuckhead
Sub-$2.00 gas goes well with $10/hour jobs. Now if we can get bread and milk prices to plunge, we’ll be all set.
Shakezula
But Obama didn’t go to France!!
Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
@Cacti:
This is the point right here. What passes for our press today don’t give a shit about anything that doesn’t fit “the narrative”. A while back, Al Franken, in one of his books, was talking about press bias. He pointed out that laziness is a big bias, and from what I can tell, it’s the biggest one. Doing real reporting is hard, and too many of these lazy assholes just don’t want to bother. So, they cast about for stories that write themselves, because “everybody knows” that President Obama is a loathed, weak president, or that the Democrats are in disarray™ or some other such bullshit. If what’s going on won’t follow the story, they’ll try to make it fit, but if that won’t work, they’ll just forget it altogether.
jah46inaz
Worthy of air time? Nope – no Republican in the White House – doesn’t count…
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
I heard a claim on NPR the other day (probably on the execrable “Marketplace”) that said wages won’t go up because companies feel that the millions of discouraged workers are their farm team to keep wages low. Basically, that if wages started to go up, discouraged workers would get back into the pool and bring them down again. No idea if this has any validity, but it’s what Some People Say.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
“Red Hot” is relative, of course. Lots of the financial press is going to take stories like this to mean that the Fed’s Discount Rate (presently 0.75%) should be raised to 10% next month to head off hyperinflation!!11
When people are hopping in and out of jobs for 20+% raises every 6 months, then we’ll have a “red hot” job market. We’re not there yet.
Cheers,
Scott.
burnspbesq
@Just Some Fuckhead:
It’s not just prices that are moving, it’s exchange rates. The amount of the kid’s tuition (denominated in pounds) that was covered by his Federal student loan (denominated in dollars) went up by about 8 percent between fall term and winter term.
daveNYC
@Cacti: And this good news is coming about just because the Republicans did well in the last elections. One can only imagine how much better the economy will be doing once the new Congress starts passing some laws.
Pretty sure that’s how their logic is working.
burnspbesq
@daveNYC:
The post hoc, ergo propter hoc fallacy is as American as baseball, apple pie, and racist stupidity.
JPL
How’s that “hopey, changey stuff working out” said the northern ice princess.
It doesn’t matter Fox news will lie and Jake Tapper will follow suit.
MattF
@Villago Delenda Est: And don’t forget that his positive thinking about the mid-term elections caused an increase in consumer confidence. It’s those super-powerful Republican psi-waves changing everyone’s economic outlook.
CONGRATULATIONS!
LOOK A TERRORIST!
Or hey, it’s some chick with a headscarf but what the fuck, a shiny object is a shiny object.
signed,
A Patriotic White Citizen Being Starved To Death By The Racist Obama Administration
Keith G
Death, Destruction, Terrorism (physical & cyber), Military vs Macroeconomic data on aggregate labor demand.
What is a clickbater to do?
That said, John, your thesis is not valid.
I just checked NY Times, W Post, LA Times, CBS, NBC, ABC, USA Today, NPR, & PBS and NONE of them are featuring the “Obama no show” story. The closest some get is the Obama/Hitler story which is helpful to Obama and not a critique. But even that is usually low in the list of stories – below the great Buckeye victory of last night.
But yeah, the eco news is not easily found.
The interesting thing is how many commenters here bought this errant thesis and ran with it.
Baaaaa Baaaaa
Liberty60
@Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.):
when they can’t get a story that writes itself, they turn to someone who will write it for them, and just cut and paste.
One of these days I seriously expect to hear “This is Jake Tapper, and in today’s Domino’s Bacon Ranch Crust news, top scientists have discovered one weird trick to reduce belly fat- Its Pizza! Next lets go to our correspondent who is standing live outside the American Enterprise Institute, with breaking news about how cutting taxes creates wealth!”
piratedan
@Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.): DING DING DING… plus as far as the narrative goes, the media sets the narrative so they’ll be telling you what is important, don’t worry you’re pretty little head about what you think might be important.
Same crap doomed the Dems, they let the GOP set the fucking narrative ( naturally since the Media is mostly bought and paid for anyway) instead of talking about what matters to folks, affordable health care, jobs, and being able to live a life without having to think about much of anything else.
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
@Keith G:
There is a notable omission from your list, you know. And it’s not Fox News.
The LA Times covered the NAACP bombing story the same day it happened. CNN, not so much.
Villago Delenda Est
@Keith G: For some inexplicable reason, there was an editorial in my provincial dead tree paper about the entire issue of too low a US presence at the Paris rally photo-op yesterday.
This is, whether you like it or not, a “Thing” with the vermin of the Village.
Roger Moore
@Mnemosyne (iPhone):
There’s probably some truth to that claim. U6 is a lot higher than U3, which means there’s still a lot of slack from underemployed and discouraged workers. OTOH, employers seem to have a strong preference for people with recent work history, which will give the people who have it some leverage to ask for raises. So we may get a happy medium, where we get both wage increases for people who are currently employed and new jobs for discouraged and underemployed workers.
chuckbutcher
Air time? Not tii the GOPpers start claiming credit…
J R in WV
Well, it should get some mention, somewhere.
Google Business news has 3 headlines about this.
Reuters: “US small business confidence at eight-year high; job openings rise”
Business insider: “US Job Openings Surge in November”
ABC News: US “Job Openings Jump to 14-Year High; sign of Strong Hiring”
When I first looked there was no optimism showing, as these appear to show.
I’m sure most “pundits” will teach us that this is because of the great news from the election results, and caused solely by optimism that Turtle will continue his great leadership of the nation.
Wait, what? He isn’t the new President? But, but, what/?/!!!
srv
See how quickly things get better when Republicans win an election?
Keith G
@Mnemosyne (iPhone): Jesus Christ. Of course I am not going to consider FOX and CNN as neutral sources of mainstream reporting…..but just for you, I will break my boycott and click
…
Nope….not featured at those two sites either. I didn’t even see a story at all, but I did not examine all corners.
FOX is now telling us:
‘STATE OF CONFUSION’? DHS braces for surge in immigrant applicants
I now need to take another shower….just for you.
ruemara
Is the president still black? Then fuck no!
However it would be nice if I got one of these fancy fangled jobs that come with hot & cold running benefits and enough pay to live on my own. Ooh, I could even plan for the future and save for retirement!
Zandar
BUT OIL CRASH WE’RE DOOMED.
CONGRATULATIONS!
@Villago Delenda Est: The White House willingly stuck their dicks in that beehive by apologizing. Here’s a protip: don’t.
What did Bush ever apologize for? NOTHING.
Let the lesson be learned.
Keith G
@Villago Delenda Est: @Villago Delenda Est: Yeah sure, that’s a thing alright.
srv
How is it that lady bugs get into the domicile? What is it they want in here?
Amir Khalid
@srv:
Maybe they’re looking for gentlemen bugs.
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
@Keith G:
Look, you may not consider CNN to be part of the MSM, but most people do. When people were looking for the NAACP story, they weren’t searching to see if it was on the LA Times website. They were checking CNN. It really does still set the tone for the coverage in the rest of the country.
Jay C
@Keith G:
Well, FWIW, the New York Times did run a piece about the Administration’s “apology” wrt the Paris march, but gave it the amount of coverage it deserved: i.e., one article, one time, and since demoted down the page in favor of more-current news. Of course, Fox and other RW media outlets will probably try to milk the incident for as much phony outrage as they think they can get; but this “flap” seems mainly to be “yesterday’s new” already…
catclub
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: I am pretty sure the Fed’s discount rate is at 0%
I also think with Yellen, there is little risk of it rising too fast or too soon.
Mnemosyne
@Keith G:
Also, too, here’s an editorial that was published on the LA Times website about 6 hours ago. The complaint is from the left and overall it decrys the Republican reaction to Obama not going, but it still includes statements like these:
Like it or not, the claim that Obama should have gone to France (or sent a higher official) is now part of the accepted story, and it’s just a matter of who you blame for it.
KG
You’re forgetting the point of the news, which is basically this.
KG
@CONGRATULATIONS!: it’s better to beg forgiveness than ask permission… it’s even better to just say “fuck it” and keep going.
Betty Cracker
@CONGRATULATIONS!: The unwillingness to admit error and learn from mistakes is one of the reasons the Republican Party sucks. I don’t think Democrats should emulate them.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@catclub:
The Fed Funds rate is 0 – 0.25%. The Discount Rate is 0.75%.
Yes, I agree, I don’t think Janet is going to raise rates too soon (and the rise will be slow). But the banksters and the 1%ers have wanted higher interest rates for a very long time. If too many in Congress start screaming for it (being pushed by the financial press) based on “red hot” news like this, which isn’t really “red hot”, then it will be harder for her to resist.
Cheers,
Scott.
Keith G
@Mnemosyne: It’s part of the accepted story because the truth behind it. Presidential administrations do sometimes misstep. The point was that at 1:30 PM EST today, Cole said that MSM complaining about that oversight (as well as CENTCOM Twitter hack) was driving out other stories.
I was just observing that 20 minutes later, I was not able to find credible backup to that assertion (the kvetching about the theoretical kvetching) .
I have no doubt that your mad internet skillz can find complaints on how Obama handled the Henry Louis Gates arrest, but that would be a bit beside this point.
Iowa Old Lady
I am so sick of media coverage concentrating on trivia and optics. They take their practice from Entertainment Tonight.
RareSanity
@Zandar:
I found it interesting that as oil prices began their initial climb into the $100/barrel level, that was bad for the economy, because people would have less disposable income, and jet fuel, and delivery services, etc.
Now that oil prices are falling, somehow that is also bad for the economy because…well, nobody is saying why, it just is.
Turgidson
@Betty Cracker:
I think it’s case specific.
Bush eventually looked like the complete fucking idiot he was by refusing to admit even the slightest error until the bitter end. I certainly don’t want Obama or other Democrats to take it that far.
But when the Village Idiots are trying to bait you into an apology over superficial bullshit like “zomg Paris!”, better to give them the finger and tell them to cram it up their asses than give them what they want.
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
@Keith G:
Yes, because finding a story posted 6 hours ago that rebuts your claim that opinion writers and the talking heads on TV are not talking about it is exactly like bringing up a story from 6 years ago.
SatanicPanic
@RareSanity: because petro-economies like Texas and North Dakota are getting hammered. That much is true, but in the grander scheme of things, I don’t know if that’s such a big deal. Who knows, IANAE (I am not an economist)
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
It’s just an anecdote but I’ll have an easier time believing the job market is red hot once I can find someone willing to offer me a job. Today is the day I’m going around again filling out applications in retail establishments and security guard companies. That’ll put my master’s degree in accounting to use.
Betty Cracker
@Turgidson: No doubt it’s situational, and where you come down on the wisdom of responding to the “ZOMG Paris” issue probably depends on whether or not you think it actually was a mistake not to send someone higher ranking than the ambassador.
Personally, I think it would have been disruptive and counterproductive for PBO himself to go (because of the logistics), but in retrospect, it probably was a non-trivial mistake not to send Biden or at least have Holder attend since he was already in Paris. Not because of the media freak-out but because France is an important ally and it was a major display of global solidarity in the face of a serious problem.
That said, the media freak-out is ridiculous.
CONGRATULATIONS!
@Betty Cracker: Oh, I think they learn from their mistakes. But they don’t admit them.
MSM thinks that equals “strength”.
You go to elections with the MSM you have, not the one you’d like to have. Dems won’t be winners again until they figure out the new rules of battle.
Another Holocene Human
But the market is pissed because the Fed won’t raise interest rates and the reason is that wages just haven’t increased enough. They still aren’t keeping up with inflation and thanks to our socialists on the Fed that just won’t be good enough to do what the bankers want. Hehehehe.
Wages need to increase. That’s hard to do with RTW and other labor busting laws out there. We need reform of our labor laws–sure. We need reforms that establish the right of labor to organize no matter the employer, that firmly establish who an employee is and remove the Bush era dodges, that guarantee a place at the table for labor, that set industry rates and require all levels of government to comply, and that require democracy within unions. Making fee-payer, rather than RTW, the law of the land would help with that, too. But they should also require officer elections to be all unit members, not just union members, and enforce rules about ratifying agreements as well. The current system favors a sort of cronyism that benefits management in obvious ways but doesn’t help workers.
Another Holocene Human
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym: Isn’t it tax season? Do you not do taxes? Ignore if the thought of another 1040EZ triggers you so hard you’ll never write again.
Another Holocene Human
@RareSanity:
Whose ox is being gored, etcet, & so forth.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
@Another Holocene Human: You’re assuming that I haven’t applied with the tax preparation places. Which, admittedly, I haven’t this year but that’s because their failure to ever call me back all of the previous years was so demoralizing.
RareSanity
@SatanicPanic:
Well, given that those two states are so deeply red, I would think that they would welcome the invisible hand of the market doing its business.
different-church-lady
@Just Some Fuckhead:
Another Holocene Human
@Mnemosyne (iPhone):
There is likely some validity to this as for the last several years we’ve been treated to the spectacle of businesses attempting to negotiate (with themselves) down for wages for skilled crafts and businesses flogging the same employees to do MOAR OVERTIME!! rather than hire some lousy ingrate because the Obamaeconomy will crash any minute now.
Some of those ‘discouraged workers’ aren’t coming back unless Roberts fucks up the healthcare law beyond all recognition. That’s another little factoid they fail to take into account.
In the last two years the trades people I know have gone from sitting around with nothing to do to driving around other states to get temporary jobs to having more work than they know what to do with and begging for apprentices. Any sort of skill is in demand again.
Roger Moore
@RareSanity:
It’s potentially bad for the economy because the US is actually a significant producer of oil and gas, so a decline in prices will hurt our producers. Some of the difference is because our production has increased a lot since prices went up, so the economics of declining prices today are not the mirror image of increasing prices a few years ago.
Couldn't Stand the Weather
@Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.):
Sad, ain’t it?
Thank FSM for Colbert, Stewart and Franken.
bemused
I caught a bit of Andrea Mitchell show. She and Susan Page were discussing Obama not going to Paris. Page compared this to Bush flying over New Orleans after Katrina! This whole media fixation on Obama shoulda gone is just pathetic.
Another Holocene Human
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym: Wow, that’s cold. You must know too much to work for them.
I guess you don’t have easily persuaded friends and neighbors … and anyway, that might pay rent for one month. :(
Another Holocene Human
@bemused: If Netanyahu hadn’t crashed the party nobody would give a shit what US official wasn’t there.
And the image/juxtaposition on tv was faaaaaaake. If Obama had gone they’d be talking about that.
RareSanity
@Roger Moore:
But that tells me that it is bad for one specific sector of the economy, not the economy as a whole.
When other specific sectors of the economy have struggled, it has not been painted as being bad for the entire economy. To the contrary, falling oil prices basically help almost every other aspect of the economy except the oil production sector.
When the economy was booming and manufacturing jobs were disappearing, people just shrugged their shoulders and said, “that just economics”. But for some reason, oil producers being hurt is somehow a national concern.
How is this any different than any other sector that has struggled, even when the greater economy is relatively healthy?
Chris T.
@Mnemosyne (iPhone):
It has some. The question is not “any”, it’s “how much”.
All economic activity takes place “on the margins” by definition. In this case, an employer needs (or feels they need—I’ll use the plural for the employer here) another worker, or doesn’t, so they start trying to hire. They offer some wage and see who they get, and either one person says “I’ll take that little/much to do that” or no one says that. The job offer is at the edge—i.e., margin—of the “employment” pool and the person who does or doesn’t take the job is at the edge of the “worker” pool, in this case.
The question is, how big is the supply of workers at the current margin, before raising the offer to attract a bigger worker pool? If there are a bunch of people who are willing to jump up and take (say) $15/hr, then wages stay at that point until the supply of “employment pool” runs out. The theory you read says that long-term unemployed are still in this worker pool.
But in fact, if someone has been unemployed for a year, he or she has probably reworked his/her life. Assume it’s a guy. Offered $15/hr he might say: you know, I get by fine without it, my wife makes enough, and an extra $30k/yr is no reason to put the kids in daycare. Make it $40k/yr and I’ll reconsider.
There will be some who will jump up at the $15/hr, but there will be others who won’t. It’s a mistake to assume that if there were 1 million guys who would take it in 2008, there will be 1 million guys who will take it in 2015.
different-church-lady
@RareSanity: The other theory I’ve seen pitched is, “This (low price of gas) has got to be a trap!” Then there’s some mumbo jumbo and links to obscure economic blogs.
different-church-lady
@Chris T.:
Some will have the balls to say, “It will take a bit more for me to say yes.” More people will do that in employee’s market than an employer’s market. The psychology pendulum swings back and forth. Right now it’s swinging slowly towards the employees, but will take a while to actually make it all the way over.
RareSanity
@different-church-lady:
“Mumbo jumbo” strikes me as the most fitting explanation…although I have always like the old school term “bunko” as well.
bemused
@Another Holocene Human:
No doubt about it.
It’s gotten to the point that you instantly know what the media will lose their shit over and walk on by. The only thing not so predictable is how long they will keep dogging it. There really should be a betting pool. I was going to say drinking game but thought better of that. These media binges can last weeks or was it months in the case of CNN and the Malaysian airliner.
SatanicPanic
@RareSanity: On their behalf I say “welcome to Texas, invisible hand!”
'Niques
@RareSanity:
Because THIS affects the KOCHS! Whiny ass little fascists!
rikyrah
@Cacti:
Tell the truth, why don’t you?
fuckwit
Thanks, Obamacare!
I said years ago that as soon at this thing takes effect, people will be starting busineses all over the place because they will no longer need to pledge fealty and serfdom to a corporate lord and master in order to have medical insurance. And small businesses can hire without worrying about having to carry a heavy burden of insurance for their employees– the employees can get coverage elsewhere.
Sure I’d have preferred a single-payer or at least a public option, but what we got is worlds better than what we had.
Decoupling existential survival from employment is the single most effective thing that could have done to help the economy. Instead of a fear-based economy, we can finally begin the transition to a hope-and-ambition-based one.
Thanks Obama, and Hilary Clinton, and Michael Moore, and Teddy Kennedy, and Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid, among many others.
Patricia Kayden
Great post, John. And may I add in a non-sarcastic manner, “Thanks Obama”.
Avery Greynold
Lefty economists have been saying: “Hey, Fed. Don’t raise rates. Econ numbers are good, but recovery isn’t complete till wages rise.” So if you have variable rate debt (mortgage, credit card) rising interest expenses are now much closer.
Bokonon
It is just a distraction! A distraction from BENGHAZIIIIIIIIIIIIIII!