— Kaiser Family Found (@KaiserFamFound) December 16, 2015
The Cadillac tax is getting pushed back by two years. In two or three years, it is likely to be pushed back again as it will only be a future policy and not a current policy which means it is not real yet in political terms.
Last night was the end of the extension of the open enrollment deadline for January 1, 2016 coverage on Healthcare.gov
This was the third year in a row that the January 1 coverage application deadline has been pushed back by forty hours or more. Yet, it still has not changed the behavior of a massive surge of people trying to enroll on the day of the announced deadline. At some point, it is a mostly rational bet that the deadline will be pushed back by a day or two, so planning to sign up on the 16th instead of the 15th is a time and frustration saver. However the announced deadline that most people can assume will be a soft deadline still prompts significant behavioral responses.
I wonder if the Cadillac tax will be like that. Most people will assume that the Cadillac tax will most likely never be fully implemented, but they will act as if it will, or at least could be implemented to some degree, and continue to trim the highest end plans to minimize potential future exposure.