Apparently we’re supposed to be impressed that Rubio came in second to Trump in South Carolina. Here are the numbers, per Google:
I guess if you assume that the others will drop out (why?) and that Rubio will pick up most of their support (citation needed), and if you squint the right way and hold your tongue at the right angle, you can see a path to victory for Rubio based on Saturday’s results. So, for example, Rubio barely beats Trump (at a couple of points over 50%, not by a landslide) if you assume that he would get roughly half of Cruz supporters (my guess is a lot lower), half of crazy Carson’s (again doubtful) and almost all of Bush and Kasich’s lemmings (probable), only if all of those candidates decide to commit political seppuku as quickly as possible.
But, this scenario is not credible. First, most of those grifters aren’t going to drop out until well after Super Tuesday, so the anti-Trump vote will be split between the hateful 5. After March 1, there are primaries in states like New York and Connecticut where Trump might be more popular than Rubio. And, most importantly, Rubio is weak sauce. He hasn’t taken the full brunt of Trump’s bullying, and he doesn’t strike me as someone quick enough on his feet to take on Trump one-on-one.
It’s too early to call but if you’re a member of the DC GOP establishment, you’re definitely chewing Xanax and downing martinis like an asteroid is about to impact the planet, because, for those dinosaurs, it looks like an extinction-level event is coming.
RaflW
All hail emperor Trump!
Or, with some luck and a bit of effort, we’ll be singing Hail to the Chief* to a Dem come January ’17.
*ETA: may require editing, too:
Hail to the Chief we have chosen for the nation,
Hail to the Chief! We salute him, one and all.
Hail to the Chief, as we pledge cooperation
In proud fulfillment of a great, noble call….
Double-ETA: Clearly the GOP has never even read line three of the song.
MattF
But… Rubio is so, umm, malleable. And I’m guessing that counts for something in the Republican Establishment’s Loose Leaf Binder of Positive Qualities.
Marc
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
supports you pretty strongly. Looking at today’s polls:
Michigan: Trump 35, Cruz 12, Rubio 12, Kasich 17, Carson 9
Massachusetts: Trump 50, Cruz 10, Rubio 16, Kasich 13, Carson 2
Looks more like “one leader, three candidates fighting for half the votes, and a guy on a book tour” to me.
Amir Khalid
So if it keeps on this way, der Donald could win a majority of delegates with a mere 30-odd percent plurality of of primary votes cast. That’s a brokered-convention scenario, isn’t it?
Tim C.
Worst thing about it is that Trump isn’t the worst of the batch over there in that festering sewer. Sure he’d be an epic disaster on all levels but nobody, and I mean nobody knows what a president Trump would do precisely because he’s promising things along the lines of repealing gravity. Cruz on the other hand is the president from central casting you use when you want to film a sequence explaining how civilization collapsed.
Betty Cracker
There really should be more of a meme on Rubio’s “leading from behind” and participation trophy victory speeches.
Kay
The rest of the country is about to find out that John Kasich is an arrogant asshole, despite his brand new, never seen before, aw shucks demeanor that has apparently duped all of political media:
He probably couldn’t pull off turning into a completely different person for long.
Kylroy
@Amir Khalid: Assuming nobody (besides Carson and his miniscule support) debarks the Klown Kar before the convention, yes. But some are likely to give up before then.
MattF
@Kay: It’s a fact that political campaigns are revealing– and that Kasich has a lot to reveal.
Paul in KY
@Amir Khalid: I think only delegate count matters. Someone please correct me, if I’m wrong on this.
Matt McIrvin
@Tim C.: Cruz is never, ever going to be president, though, whereas Trump might be.
Paul in KY
@Tim C.: I swear, Tim, that if they sent him in to audition for that role, the caster would say ‘No, too creepy. Next.’
Fair Economist
I’d love to face Rubio in November because the best he would do is a “Rubio Win” – second place.
MattF
@Amir Khalid: I’d guess that the big question is whether anyone can prevent a first-ballot win by Trump. If the convention goes past the first ballot, we’re in ‘anything can happen’ territory.
Belafon
@Amir Khalid: Delegates in the primaries are meant to be very much like the electoral college. In a winner take all state like South Carolina, the person in first place gets them all, no matter what percentage of votes he/she received. It makes a win more important/impressive because the final number hides the actual vote percentage. There’s some good and bad in it, but if Trump comes in first place in nearly every winner take all state, he’ll be a clear winner.
SuperHrefna
@Betty Cracker: I read a great tweet the day of the SC primary to the effect that Rubio has received so much praise for failing to win that he is now legally a millennial…
Dollared
MM, I like your analysis, but your conclusion is unsupported. There is an unlimited amount of money to support the DC right wing apparatchiks. And Trump actually increases the uncertainty around their business, which causes them to go to their clients and say “spend more on me, you need me as a hedge.”
And given that they were never going to win this election unless a major recession occurs, or Hillary really does get caught in something real or imagined, their existing plans don’t really change much.
There will never be an extinction level event for these guys. Who got crucified? Jesus or the money-lenders in the Temple?
Elizabelle
@Kay: Yeah, I’m concerned about Kasich getting too much media fluffing as the “moderate” one. I see him being the biggest threat in November, since we have a media wired for Republican control.
Watched CNN SC results Saturday night. You could be forgiven if you did not know the Democrats also had a Nevada caucus that day. It was all GOP, and as much Trump as they could load in.
Anderson Cooper, at one point: “and now, about Nevada.”
My ears perked.
And he started talking about the upcoming GOP event next weekend.
JPL
Predict Wise has Trump at 51 percent and Rubio next at 45 percent. link
Kay
@MattF:
He ran an ad in his last campaign where he was strolling along a country road in shirtsleeves. I think he has based his new persona on that ad. It’s thin, not a lot to work with within 30 seconds, but we’ll see how long he can stretch it out.
The best part for me is finding out he has no role in government. He’s been gone for a year now and there’s not even complaints. It’s irrelevant whether he shows up to work or not.
JPL
@Elizabelle: He’s prepping for the VP slot.
Tim C.
@Fair Economist: I still don’t get why Rubio is the establishment favorite. He’s a terrible candidate. I thought he was done after Christie metaphorically pantsed him on live TV.
Roger Moore
@Amir Khalid:
No. A brokered convention is if nobody manages to win a majority of the delegates. If somebody manages to win a majority of delegates without a majority of votes, that’s just the way the system works.
Marc
For some reason, this reminds me of watching the republican primary:
http://www.upi.com/Odd_News/2016/02/17/Drunk-monkey-armed-with-kitchen-knife-chases-bar-patrons/4801455732055/
Felonius Monk
Trump will hire Kasich as his VP.
Mike in DC
Given Trump’s questioning of Rubio’s eligibility, I think the other candidates should go for broke at the next debate and call him out together for race baiting. Sure, it would cost them a few Southern primaries, but it would also cap off Trump’s ceiling and make a win in the general impossible for him (because that moment would be immortalized in a TV ad and effectively irrefutable). Of course, they won’t do it, because they want to be the nominee too, and figure they need the racist vote in November. Dare to dream, though.
Roger Moore
@Tim C.:
Process of elimination. Of the remaining candidates, Trump, Cruz, and Carson are clearly anti-establishment, so they’re out. That leaves Rubio and Kasich. Kasich has disqualified himself for failure to adhere to orthodoxy- not just accepting Medicaid expansion but being vocal about why it’s the Christian thing to do- leaving nobody but Marco.
Kay
@Elizabelle:
Clinton can beat Kasich in the Great Lakes states and that’s his whole pitch. He isn’t going to win northeastern states in a general no matter how much they like “moderate” Republicans and he’s not particularly attractive outside OH, MI and PA. Democrats spend an enormous amount of time in OH, MI and PA anyway, no matter who the GOP-er is.
He’s not a particularly good strategic choice, really, because the area he is claiming as a strength is always contested – Ohio will be 5 points either way no matter who they run- and he has no particular strength outside that area, as far as flipping states.
Fair Economist
@Tim C.: Rubio is only option for the Republican Establishment. Bush pantsed himself, repeatedly, to the point of taking himself out. Kasich supported the Obamacare medicaid exemption and will never win a Republican nomination. So it’s Roboto or noboto, and the Establishment is making the best of it by coming out strongly for him.
Anoniminous
@Amir Khalid:
Not necessarily. There are a total of 2,472 delegates to the GOP convention with 1,237 needed for a win. 1,865 are allocated – in theory but not 100% in practice – by primary with another couple of hundred awarded to states for miscellaneous reasons. If Trump gets to 1,237, as the polling numbers are telling us he will, he wins the nomination unless TPTB decide they’d rather destroy the Republican Party than “merely” lose a presidential election.
IF Trump loses. There’s no Law of the Universe stating he can’t win. I cannot conceive of him winning but if he gets the nomination he’s in the position to win.
MattF
@Roger Moore: There’s also the suspicion that Rubio is ‘persuadable’. That’s very clearly not the case for either Cruz or Trump and it’s very important for the RE.
Calouste
I’m wondering when Trump is going to talk about Rubio’s brother in law having spend 13 years in prison on a drugs conviction. Probably after Kasich has dropped out. Questioning Rubio’s eligibility now is just othering him as a setup for the bil story.
Rafer Janders
@Tim C.:
He’s a terrible candidate, but he’s terrible candidate. He’s a malleable purse dog who’ll do his masters’ bidding, and in the end that’s what they want.
Kay
@Elizabelle:
Kasich can say “I’m competitive in Ohio” but so can any Republican- it’s always competitive. Cruz might be the exception – NOT competitive in Ohio – but he’s not gonna be the nominee because he’s clearly repellent :)
Cruz has weirdly short arms, I would just like to mention. I saw him on CSPAN and if I met him that’s what I would think. I thought of him as bigger.
Roger Moore
@Fair Economist:
Today. At the beginning, they were distracted by an overabundance of candidates, so they couldn’t settle on just one guy. If they had settled on Rubio from the beginning, he’d be in a much stronger position today.
The Other Bob
I may actually (barf) vote in the R primary…for Rubio. I can’t stand Rubio, but I fear Trump.
NotMax
Slightly more accurate numbers, including raw vote:
Trump, Donald John, Sr.: 239,851 32.50%
Rubio, Marco A.: 165,883 22.48%
Cruz, Rafael Edward “Ted”: 164,791 22.33%
Bush, John Ellis “Jeb”: 57,865 7.84%
Kasich, John Richard: 56,207 7.62%
Carson, Benjamin Solomon “Ben”, Sr.: 53,327 7.23%
Source
MattF
@Roger Moore: I think most of the RE just took it for granted that Jeb! would be the nominee.
shomi
Always funny when Wrong more than Kristol Mistermix makes his election predictions.
CONGRATULATIONS!
Given Trump’s questioning of Rubio’s eligibility, I think the other candidates should go for broke at the next debate and call him out together for race baiting. Sure, it would cost them a few Southern primaries, but it would also cap off Trump’s ceiling and make a win in the general impossible for him (because that moment would be immortalized in a TV ad and effectively irrefutable).
@Mike in DC: I think you are grossly underestimating both how much this election is going to ride on racism, and how racist this country is.
I think if the others did something like this (they won’t and can’t, but let’s just say) you hand the GOP nom to Trump that day and give him a huge boost in the general (no more friendly fire to deal with, he can go all offense all the time).
America’s waiting for that guy who’ll stand in the schoolhouse door and scream “segregation forever” and Trump is willing to be that guy.
RareSanity
@Tim C.: Trump and Cruz have caused “the establishment” to alter their guidelines for what constitutes the “establishment candidate”.
It’s pretty much down to “not Trump or Cruz” at this point…and even with that lowered bar, the establishment is still no better than third place. The establishment is obviously having trouble coming to grips with the fact that they no longer control the GOP, and what’s going to be even more heartbreaking once they realize it, is that since that is the current state of the party, they really aren’t the establishment anymore.
Can’t be the establishment if you cannot impose your will on the peons.
When the inmates take over the asylum, it’s very Baghdad Bob-ian for the top administrator to claim that everything is under control.
Cermet
Cruz would be a sure looser if he won the GOP primary; yet, he is one dangerous psycho and while Hillary would clean the floor with him, one never knows what could happen during a long national election (a plane crash, nut with a gun, maybe some unknown skeleton arises) that would possibly lead to a democrat loss – then Amerika’s and the worlds worst nightmare would occur. Better that tRump wins the gop race even if tRump offers cross-over appeal to some demo-rats.
jl
@Amir Khalid: Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium blog did some analysis. He says Trump can win nomination if turnout support matches his current polling, due to way that delegates are allocated.
Belafon
@shomi: No matter what name you try to use, it’s always easy to tell who you are.
NotMax
@amir Khalid
As others have stated, no. After March 14, the R primaries are winner takes all (for all intents and purposes).
The achieved percentage which constitutes winning each of those primaries is irrelevant, so long as it is the highest among those on the ballot. Delegate numbers rack up very quickly after March 14.
Belafon
Now imagine if both parties were required to have everyone who registers to run under their party up on stage. There are plenty of people who are running for the sake of running and will never drop out, because their only expense would be traveling to the next debate.
p.a.
@Rafer Janders: He’s also all they got; their own creation. Everybody left besides Roboto has slithered out of the conservapublican detritus deposited since Barry G. Conservative yes, but not directable: they’ll even stop Texas oilmen’s daughters from getting abortions when they want to. Can’t have that.
FlipYrWhig
@Tim C.:
Ooh, ooh, I know! I know!
I listened to his not-victory speech the other night. And from it I gathered that the Republicans _desperately_ want to run a campaign around Rubio, Nikki Haley, and Tim Scott. They want to run Hot Young Brown Republicans Who Are Totally Off The Plantation, against Old Conventional Democrats, reinvent the image of their party as less intolerant and exclusionary, and poach the youth vote.
rdldot
@Kay: wow. You’re right about the arms! I was wondering what was so strange about the way he held himself and that’s it! They’re really short!
schrodinger's cat
@FlipYrWhig: Aah the Sarah Palin theory of politics rears its again.
CONGRATULATIONS!
@FlipYrWhig: Only problem with that stratagem is that young people don’t vote.
Please proceed, GOP.
NotMax
@Tim C.
The G.O.P. and MSM investment in Marco Antonio the Parched is akin to investing in snowball imports for Hell.
shelbyesaunders
good
Roger Moore
@FlipYrWhig:
And Trump is showing the downside of that approach: it pisses off the mostly older, racist whites who don’t want a less intolerant and exclusionary party. It’s the core Republican dilemma: how they can appeal to younger, more diverse voters without losing their appeal to the racist core of the party. I’m not sure there’s a way to square that circle.
Anonymous At Work
@Mike in DC:
Long climb for shorter slide, but I had/have a friend who is a preening narcissist a lot. If he’s in a room with a mirror, he’ll move to see himself in that mirror while talking to others. Another friend figured this out and would shift to stand between the first friend and his reflection, causing the first friend to shift and act more anxious. That’s the long climb.
For the shorter slide, let me say this: If Rubio isn’t quick on his feet, and in fact suffers from anxiety issues, what makes you think he can withstand the full Trump at a debate?
NotMax
@Roger Moore
Traditionally, it’s done by clicking the heels together three times while repeatedly shouting “Tax cuts!”
jl
Sam Wang has a recent post up concluding that the GOP field has to winnow down to one alternative to Trump now for a good chance to stop him.
The GOP’s deadline problem
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/02/11/the-anti-trump-path-gets-very-narrow/
some guy
@Mike in DC:
don’t worry, plenty of time left for racist dogwhistles against Marco!
the anchor-baby child of illegal immigrants will be facing lots and lots of birther shit (as will tailgunner Ted Cruz) as he gets stronger and the filed narrows.
jl
@Anonymous At Work: And I read that at the last debate with Christie in it, Trump studied Christie’s demolition techniques carefully, and congratulated Christie on the expert work.
Maybe all the others could drop out and Christie get back in. It would be fun to see T and C go at each other. Like a epochal heavyweight boxing match.
MattF
@jl: And the comments to that post are interesting, although the scenarios described there seem far-fetched. Although maybe not as far-fetched as Candidate Trump….
FlipYrWhig
@Roger Moore: Yeah, I think you’re right, but that’s almost certainly what tethers Rubio to the “Establishment” this time around: Rubio as forward-looking marketing strategy.
amk
why would kasich agree to be trump’s veep when he openly detests him?
cmorenc
@MattF:
IF the GOP establishment does manage to prevent a first-ballot convention-win by Trump, and DOES succeed in maneuvering the nomination to another candidate (Rubio) – that way also lies disaster. Even if a modest majority of the ardently pro-Trump anti-establishment GOP electorate grumpily goes along voting for the nominee – a HEEUUGE portion of the Trump/anti-establishment faction will rebel and either not turn out in November, or vote for a third party (e.g. Libertarian) candidate.
If Trump has a commanding delegate lead but not enough to win the nomination outright on the first ballot, the GOP is dammed if they do, dammed if they don’t wrt giving him enough support to put him over the top vs engineering a brokered convention to give the nomination to a more acceptable (e.g. Rubio) candidate. Oh, and BTW if Cruz is the other potential alternative shoved to the outside in a brokered convention, well…Cruz isn’t known for playing nice with the GOP establishment and their notions of what’s “good” for the party. He may open a second “rogue” front along with the first one constituted by angry Trump supporters.
Peale
@FlipYrWhig: We treat everyone equally like crap!
Ridnik Chrome
@amk: There’s an interesting question: who among the Republicans is sufficiently craven and self-loathing to accept the number two spot on a Donald Trump ticket?
Aleta
Come I told Me, Ta rump pa pum pum
Their new born king I’ll be, Ta rump pa pum pum
Their finest gifts they’ll bring, Ta rump pa pum pum
To lay before their king, Ta rump pa pum pum,
Trump pa pa pum, Trump pa pa pum,
So to honor Me, Ta rump pa pum pum,
When I come.
Just one problem, Ta rump pa pum pum
There were some poor folks too, Ta rump pa pum pum
They had no bling to bring, Ta rump pa pum pum
That’s fit to give to Me, Ta rump pa pum pum,
Trump pa pa pum, Trump pa pa pum,
What could they do, Ta rump pa pum pum,
For my fun?
Me, I nodded, Ta rump pa pum pum
Just buy my hats and things, Ta rump pa pum pum
I gave my speech for them, Ta rump pa pum pum
It was the best for them, Ta rump pa pum pum ,
Trump pa pa pum, Trump pa pa pum,
Then they cheered for Me, Ta rump pa pum pum
Me and my bling.
Jibeaux
@FlipYrWhig: another downside is that it doesn’t really work.
Tokenism is the beginning, middle and end of their minority outreach, and they have no idea that Cubans are not viewed by Latinos as more brown people just like them.
jl
@FlipYrWhig:
” Rubio as forward-looking marketing strategy. ”
But no product? That is a problem for groups with real gripes, like the youths. It’s an additional disadvantage to the marketing strategy with ads (I guess Rubio himself is the ad) that discomforts the older white spite, fear and (as Moore noted) bigot vote.
Amir Khalid
@Ridnik Chrome:
I suspect they all are.
Bobby Thomson
I may actually look into this Twit thing. Al Giordano and Dennis Green are doing the lord’s work. Especially Al.
amk
@Ridnik Chrome:
I wish da ‘establishment’ forces lil jebbie on him. Of course, craven, corrupt lil jebbie will accept it ‘humbly’ under “I love public service” bs.
bemused
@FlipYrWhig:
I was amused to learn that Ted Cruz is only about 5 months older than Rubio. I can’t imagine why Cruz is never promoted as a young and hot Republican, : )
John Revolta
@jl: This was what I was hoping for. I wanted to put all these idiots on an island six months ago, and have it come down to Trump and Christie. And to own the popcorn concession.
Anonymous At Work
@jl: Read this first. http://bitterempire.com/presidential-candidates-ranked-usefulness-bar-fight/
C.V. Danes
@Tim C.:
Exactly. Trump would lead to a constitutional crisis because he’s the proverbial bull in the china shop, but he’s no ‘Hitler.’
Cruz is the American version of Hitler.
rikyrah
@Tim C.:
Someone here coined the phrase:
Ted Cruz has a face for a Criminal Minds episode.
Whomever you are…thank you. You nailed it.
NR
Don’t forget that while SC was winner-take-all this time, not all of the Republican primaries are. All of the ones before March 15 are proportional, as well as some of the ones after. Notably, Florida and Ohio are two of the primaries that are winner-take-all, so expect Rubio and Kasich to fight like hell for their home states.
Under proportional allocation, though, it’s possible we could see a scenario where Trump can’t get a majority of delegates before the convention. So both Cruz and Rubio staying in could be bad for Trump, since he might be able to pick up more than half their supporters if they dropped out, but with them in and taking delegates in the proportional states, it might keep Trump from a majority. We’ll see.
Hoodie
@FlipYrWhig: I’d be more worried if Haley was running instead of Rubio because, unlike Marco, she isn’t a bag of feathers. The way it stands now, the GOP looks like it’s between a rock and hard place. I imagine the GOP bigwigs feel that the Donald, Melania and the rest of the menagerie won’t play that well through a campaign against Hillary, remembering how the Palin show put McCain under for good. If they screw Trump out of the nom at the convention, there is a significant chance he’d go third party, especially if he has a plurality. That would probably doom any GOP nominee. The smart money in the GOP would be staying in port this year, hoping that the xenophobic/racist element will have abated in 2020 and seeing an opportunity to become the new establishment now that the Bushes are history. Haley would be in that crew, as she has built some cred toward a new, less racist GOP.
Princess
Cruz is Franco. Trump is Mussolini. Both destroyed the countries they led. No thanks.
scav
As a public service: These are 99.99999% more likely to be interesting monstrous, dangerous, fossils to learn about, plus they’re armadillos! Don’t know how they rank on the Benetton scale, but we can perhaps raise a panic about them crossing our yooge undefended southern borders en masse and taking away roadkill jobs from ‘mercan armadillos. (actually, a matchup I’d rather like to see).
FlipYrWhig
@Jibeaux: “United Colors of Republicon.”
gvg
I wonder who Trump can get to be VP? He seems to attack everyone sooner or later including previously favorite employees. Is it actually required for him to pick someone before the election? After the VP it’s speaker of the house, right? I guess he could name someone, but he’d probably be feuding with them before a term was over..I wonder if we will hear about some choices turning him down.
Steeplejack
@Tim C.:
Future president Greg Stillson in the remake of The Dead Zone.
Calouste
@jl: I’m not sure whether those deadlines really matter, and consequently if Trump can be stopped. The current national polls show roughly Trump at 38%, Cruz/Carson at 26% and Rubio/Kasich/Bush at 26%, with 10% undecided. Assume that Cruz and Rubio both gobble all up the votes for the other candidates in their block, and then one of them drops out, we’ll have Trump at 38%, Rubio or Cruz with 26% and 36% unassigned/undecided. I’m not sure that Rubio and Cruz will pick up 2/3 of each other’s votes, specially considering that Rubio is the “establishment” and both Cruz and Trump are running as anti-establishment.
eyelessgame
Cruz is obviously of the opinion that Trump’s ceiling is <50% GOP, so he plans to be the last notrump standing. But that strategy relies on everyone else dropping out. I don't think that'll happen.
Rubio might be thinking Trump's ceiling is <50% GOP, but it's more likely that his strategists are hoping Cruz stays in, and that Trump+Cruz’s ceiling is <67% GOP. But his strategy relies on Kasich dropping out – and not bluescreening again.
Kasich is still in pretty much because he can't believe he's losing to these fruitbats.
Ridnik Chrome
@Amir Khalid: I suspect the Republicans will force the job on someone they really, really don’t like. In which case it will be Ted Cruz…
NR
@Calouste: But with proportional allocation, the Republicans don’t need to coalesce around a single alternative to stop Trump. As long as Cruz and Rubio can both crack the viability threshold for delegates, if Trump is under 50%, they can stop him from getting the nomination.
That said, if Trump sweeps the winner-take-all states, there’s probably no stopping him.
Jeffro
@SuperHrefna: oh, OUCH
And yet as someone who deals with millennials on a regular basis, so true
gvg
Just took a look at state by state polls and it’s kind of interesting.
A lot of states haven’t had recent polling, presumably because they aren’t soon. Trump leads in most of them. He is not in the picture in a few states, like Arkansas. He has peaked and started dropping in a few. I hope that happens in more states because that would actually lead to doubt on who is the GOP.
Rubio is third in Florida and JEB was 4th! We don’t like either one. Cruz leads in Texas but not by that much. Carson really had good numbers lots of places a month ago. I can’t help hoping the flavor of the day cycle starts again like last time. That could actually lead to the brokered convention which I think would damage the GOP. Who knows though. Haven’t read the artical about when their time runs out.
Steve in the ATL
@Hoodie:
You’re making a joke, right? That is the very essence of the GOP. The country club/chamber of commerce types are small in number, thus they have been using the racists/xenophobes to win elections.
Jack the Second
So if John Ellis Buah is Jeb, is John Richard Kasich Jrk?
Aleta
@Anonymous At Work: All of that was funny, but especially liked this:
randy khan
@NR:
One of the problems for Cruz and Rubio is that the hangers-on may hurt them a lot in proportional states. Collectively, the bottom three had as many votes as Cruz and Rubio each received in South Carolina, and so instead of maybe splitting all the delegates roughly in thirds, if the bottom three hang in there they may cause the split in a proportional state to be something like 45%/30%/25%, which maybe takes Trump’s margin down, but keeps him well ahead of the other two. Even if all of Bush’s votes go to Rubio (not that likely – some, maybe even a majority, will go to Kasich), this scenario still plays out.
With Kasich promising to stay until Ohio and Carson having given no signs of getting tired of hanging around, this may be an issue through at least the middle of March.
Ruckus
@Anonymous At Work:
Best political reporting that I’ve ever seen. Also rather funny.
catclub
@jl: And this calculus has been known since June. The problem is convincing all but one to drop out in July, 2015, in order to stomp on Trump. Who will bell the cat? Multiplied by 10 – since there
are 10 who have to drop out.
The Golux
@JPL:
They also have the Cubs winning the World Series. (Not by a lot, but still.)
NR
@randy khan: I think a 45-30-25 split is more likely at this point than one-third for each candidate. At that point, all Trump would need to do is pick up a few more winner-take-all states to break 50% of the delegates.
If Rubio and Kasich can carry their home states, that would deny Trump a big chunk of delegates. At this point, that looks like a mighty big “if,” though.
Tim C.
Thesis: The establishment’s total loss of control of the GOP is more the result of Fox News and its imitators consistently portraying the world in a demonstrably untrue manner.
Yea or nay?
Jack the Second
@catclub: To be fair, none of the Republican candidates are that worried that a racist sociopath with no concern for the consequences of his actions will get the opportunity to turn the US into a plutocratic theocracy.
They’re just worried they personally won’t get to be the asshole who does it.
Kay
@rdldot:
Aren’t they though? I thought “why does look like a kid in that suit coat?” and that’s why. He never had that period growing up where their arms grow out the sleeve and their wrists stick out.
His just fit from 8 years old all the way to the Senate :)
Ruckus
@Jack the Second:
They’re just worried they personally won’t get to be the asshole who does it.
This. They want the last statue erected in this country to be of them with the inscription:
Totally destroyed the US
In the name of god.
Except for tDump, the last line on his would read – In the name of TRUMP
randy khan
@NR: @NR:
A lot depends on what happens to the Bush/Kasich/Carson voters. Some chunk of them will just fade away once their candidates are out (starting now with the Bush voters), and those who do vote won’t map perfectly to the remaining candidates most like their preferred choices.
I’ve seen a lot of polling that suggests that Trump tops out around 35% among Republican voters, but I wonder, for instance, how many Carson voters would go to him instead of to Cruz (who would the logical choice for evangelical voters but has built up some animus with the good doctor).
RaflW
@FlipYrWhig: I’m pretty sure the youth vote has the GOP’s number, and wouldn’t fall for such bullshit, try as they might. But Rubio won’t be the nominee anyway (and won’t be again in 4 years, either, I boldly predict).
Tractarian
Has anyone called Rubio “Macro” yet?
I’m gonna call him “Macro.”
randy khan
@NR:
Some recent polling on 2nd choices among Republicans committed to Bush
Maybe not such great news for Rubio
Gin & Tonic
@RaflW:
In 2012 the 18-30’s went roughly 60-40 for Obama over Romney. That’s not overwhelming, IMO.
FlipYrWhig
@Tractarian: I did, here, right about the time of the first Rubio brain-fart.
randy khan
@Gin & Tonic:
60-40 across the whole country probably would translate to something like 400 Electoral votes. In 2012, that would have been a 7% shift in the electorate and probably would have moved Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina and maybe even Texas from Romney to Obama. (Even without Texas, that’s 400+ EVs.) That’s pretty overwhelming.
Gin & Tonic
@randy khan: I’m too lazy to do the state-level numbers and translate to EV’s, but keep in mind that 18-30’s were only 18% of the total in 2012. I heard someone on the teevee the other night saying that if you subtracted out the millennials in 2012, Obama still wins. IOW, they aren’t/weren’t the factor some people think.
But like I said, I’m not going to do those calculations myself.
randy khan
@Gin & Tonic:
I see on re-reading that my post wasn’t clear – my point was that 60-40 in any demographic is a pretty overwhelming win for that group. By way of illustration, I was saying that if Obama had won the whole election (not just the youngs) by a 60-40 margin, he’d have flipped a bunch of states and ended up with more than 400 EVs.
Matt McIrvin
@Tim C.: If you believe general-election head-to-head polls, he does better against Clinton than either Trump or Cruz, and wins in some of them. So you can make an electability argument, on the same grounds that Sanders fans argue that Sanders is more electable than Clinton. All of this ignores any analysis of what might happen in a future general-election campaign, but at least there are poll numbers you can cite.
(There are actually some recent polls showing Kasich doing even better, and beating Clinton by big margins. But the numbers are sparse and there are equally recent ones showing the opposite.)
The Lodger
@rikyrah: Yeah. I’m surprised more people don’t refer to him as the UnSub.
Tegdirb
@bemused: Ted Cruz is the same age as Jared Leto.