Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

I like political parties that aren’t owned by foreign adversaries.

Republicans cannot even be trusted with their own money.

So many bastards, so little time.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

Let me file that under fuck it.

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

American history and black history cannot be separated.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

Disappointing to see gov. newsom with his finger to the wind.

If ‘weird’ was the finish line, they ran through the tape and kept running.

Sometimes the world just tells you your cat is here.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

Giving in to doom is how authoritarians win.

I did not have this on my fuck 2025 bingo card.

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Reader Interactions

293Comments

  2. 2.

    NR

    Trump is ahead by 2 in the latest CNN poll. Historically, the candidate who leads after Labor Day goes on to win the election.

    Hillary Clinton is going to go down as the worst presidential candidate at least since McGovern if not longer than that. For her to be losing to someone who is so manifestly unfit for the presidency is really amazing.

  3. 3.

    Ejoiner

    Just spent the weekend moving my daughter into her apartment for a semester in Washington as a paid intern – she lives one block from the Supreme Court building and will be in the middle of the action this fall. I’m very excited for her and I promise to let you guys in on all the scoop she delivers! :)

  5. 5.

    Pogonip

    I’d go with option 2.

    He IS fat. Don’t forget to ask the vet to test him for diabetes when you take him for checkups.

    And I hope you apologized to Thurston for your unseemly behavior.

  8. 8.

    Steeplejack (phone)

    “Slag off, ya clumsy ape! Dinna ya have a porch or such ta fall through?! And fetch me a treat, for all’s holy!”

  12. 12.

    lurker dean

    david brooks is angering me this morning. only a privileged asshole would consider 20 million receiving medical coverage as not that big a deal. what an asshole.

  15. 15.

    Mnemosyne

    Reminds me of when I was working at Crown Books with a girl my age from Belfast. One time, I drove her home after our shift and we found her boyfriend still laying on the sofa bed watching TV at about four o’clock in the afternoon.

    The very first words out of her mouth were, “Connor, you lazy bastard!” I couldn’t stop laughing, and he was a little embarrassed.

  16. 16.

    NR

    @Gin & Tonic: The blue wall is a myth. Nate Silver wrote an article about this. If Trump wins the popular vote he will also win the electoral college. Digging into the weeds about individual states is totally missing the point.

  17. 17.

    West of the Rockies (been a while)

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Please proceed, knucklehead. And by all means, come back after the election once HRC is your first female president to explain how you got it wrong.

  18. 18.

    shell

    Trump is ahead by 2 in the latest CNN poll

    Wow, CNN touting their own internal CNN poll! Pardon me i f Im a wee bit skeptical. Theyre just too anxious to keep the horse-race going.

  24. 24.

    Amir Khalid

    @NR:
    Remember, George McGovern lost by a landslide. If Hillary loses the national vote count to Trump, and that’s a very big if, the current polling suggests it will be a much narrower win for him. In any event, the Presidential election is 50 state races, rather than a single national one. Gin & Tonic is right about the state-by-state race. Trump remains at serious risk of losing Republican stronghold states that he needs to win, and Hillary remains the likelier to win.

  26. 26.

    Mnemosyne

    @Emerald:

    Pretty much. Most of the polls seem to be assuming that the Obama coalition will not turn out for Hillary and the electorate will look more like a midterm than a presidential election year.

    This is, of course, a racist assumption on their part that Black folks only voted for Obama because he was the same race that they are, but anyway …

  30. 30.

    Mnemosyne

    @NR:

    Can you find me a story that’s not from May of 2015? Maybe something with current polls to support Nate’s hypothesis that he developed before the primaries started? KTHXBAI.

  31. 31.

    scav

    I’m rather entirely expecting NR and ilk to reappear on late Nov 8 and early on the 9th shouting that the election results should be overturned because of a single polling result on right after Labor Day. Besides, without having won each and every poll since, oh, late 2014 will be proof, absolute proof! that Clinton doesn’t have a mandate, no matter the popular vote or electoral college results.

    Even their wholecloth lies are beginning to fray, ravel and show signs of overuse from being so constantly waved.

  32. 32.

    David Fud

    OK, moderated for the link to Sam Wang. Nice to know we can always refer to Sam Wang when any one particular poll comes out, and ignore the noise. election dot princeton dot edu.

  33. 33.

    NR

    @Amir Khalid:

    Trump remains at serious risk of losing Republican stronghold states that he needs to win,

    It’s doubtful that this is true anymore in light of Trump having a national lead. Don’t assume that just because a state hasn’t been polled recently that the polls haven’t shifted there too.

  34. 34.

    Cermet

    @NR: LOL; sure, keep buying that so-called tobacco from that seedy teen on your nearest street corner. As for their poll meaning more than any other poll, LOLOLOLOLOL.

  36. 36.

    NR

    @Mnemosyne:

    Can you find me a story that’s not from May of 2015?

    He’s talking about historical data. That hasn’t changed in the last year.

    How about you give me an example of a candidate losing the popular vote by more than 1% and still winning the electoral college? Got any from the 20th or 21st centuries?

  37. 37.

    Mnemosyne

    @NR:

    So, just to be clear, you are 100 percent convinced that Hillary is going to lose 10 states: Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. And you’re basing this belief on an article written over a year ago that says it hypothetically would be really bad if those states flipped to Trump.

  38. 38.

    skyweaver

    Steve appears unimpressed with your efforts. I bet your house is quite an entertaining place to be, John.

  40. 40.

    Mnemosyne

    @NR:

    I read the article. He’s saying that, historically, there’s no such thing as a safe state. Historically, California was a solid Republican state.

    However, if you think that actually means that there’s a 50/50 chance that California will go for Trump this year because historically they were a Republican state, you’re even stupider than I thought.

  42. 42.

    NR

    @Mnemosyne:

    However, if you think that actually means that there’s a 50/50 chance that California will go for Trump this year because historically they were a Republican state, you’re even stupider than I thought.

    Nice strawman.

    If you think making the argument that the popular vote and the electoral vote are going to match, as they’ve done in nearly every election in the nation’s history, is the same as saying “OMG Trump is going to win California!!!!!#@!!!” then you’re even stupider than the inaccurate version of me your fevered imagination has conjured up.

  43. 43.

    Mnemosyne

    @NR:

    I listed the same 10 states that Nate did. Please tell us which of those states Trump is currently polling ahead in

  44. 44.

    Ampersand

    I’m not going to panic because of one poll. I will say this, though: thus far, I’m not impressed with Hillary’s campaign. I question the wisdom of just assuming that we’ve got the usual swing states, and pouring money into long-shot states. I also question the whole “play it conservatively and wait for Trump to blatantly screw up” strategy…because, when his screwups are just bad, and not blatant, nobody seems to care. Hillary seems to think that she can just show up, say who she is, point out how ridiculous Trump is, and win. In a sane universe, that plan would work just fine. In the universe we actually inhabit, though, she needs to make more of a case for herself.

    But, Labor Day has come and gone, so maybe she’ll step things up. She has a ton of money in the war-chest, and she should have high-profile surrogates (Obama, Warren, Bernie, Kaine) out making the case for her. I look forward to seeing how she handles this new phase of the campaign.

  45. 45.

    NR

    @Gin & Tonic: Obama beat Romney by 4 points in the popular vote. If Trump wins by 2, that’s a 6 point swing. The following Obama states were decided by less than 6 points in 2012: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Iowa.

    All those states flipping means President Trump, by the way.

  46. 46.

    Mike E

    you’re even stupider than the inaccurate version of me your fevered imagination has conjured up

    Ladies and gentlemen, Doug J!

  47. 47.

    Mnemosyne

    @Ampersand:

    Hillary is currently polling within the margin of error because white voters are pissed that she called Trump out for his white supremacist ties.

    Period.

  48. 48.

    West of the Rockies (been a while)

    @piratedan:

    I very definitely was addressing NR; I was piggybacking on G&T’s comment. But thanks for any potential clarification.

  49. 49.

    Betty Cracker

    @NR: And like an inadequately plunged turd, NR arises from the sewer pipe, just as foretold in prophesy this very morning! You sound very convinced Secretary Clinton will lose. My offer of a wager to benefit a worthy charity of your/my choice still stands!

  50. 50.

    scav

    Historically, Hillary is going to lose because never, never in the entire history of these U-nited States has a woman ever been elected. Not going to happen. Next thing, people will be making all kinds of crazy predictions about black men winning elections. I mean. History is inevitably destiny.

  51. 51.

    hueyplong

    He cites Nate Silver but forgets to mention that Silver has Clinton at a 68.2% chance to win today, a date that appears to be post-Labor Day.

  52. 52.

    Humdog

    NotRight chimes up after one poll weighted toward white working class votes gives Trump a lead inside the margin of error. All the other polls, all state polls are now meaningless! Until he mentioned it, I had no idea Hillary wasn’t universally loved. Thanks for the breaking news, dipshit.

  55. 55.

    Humdog

    @Betty Cracker: dammit, Betty, why can’t you use your prophecy powers for something useful, you know. Like winning lottery numbers or keeping your critters from tearing up paws or playing with snakes. What a waste of talent, foreseeing trolls coming out from their bridges.

  57. 57.

    Miss Bianca

    Lefty Kitty caught a mouse! Good kitties, earning their keep! (sorry, Steve. I’m sure you’re a magnificent fat bastard predator).

  59. 59.

    Miss Bianca

    @Betty Cracker:

    And like an inadequately plunged turd, NR arises from the sewer pipe,

    Betty C, this simile made me spit-take my coffee early this morning, and it was almost as deadly now!

  62. 62.

    Miss Bianca

    @Mnemosyne:

    So, just to be clear, you are 100 percent convinced that Hillary is going to lose 10 states: Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. And you’re basing this belief on an article written over a year ago that says it hypothetically would be really bad if those states flipped to Trump.

    “Say what you like about NR-ism, man, at least it’s a methodology! “

  64. 64.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @NR: If Trump wins by 2,

    and if your daddy had ever remembered your birthday, just once……

  65. 65.

    Ampersand

    @Mnemosyne:

    I think that’s a huge part of it, yeah…but I don’t think it’s the whole thing. There are those on the left who don’t like Clinton-style triangulation. And, as ridiculous as it is, personality plays a part in all this, and some people don’t like Hillary’s personality. Some of that is misogyny, but some of it is…well, the Clintons are sort of awkwardly defensive, I guess you’d say. Given what they’ve been through, I can’t blame them. But they haven’t exactly been helping themselves, either.

    I may have mentioned this before, but, I’m part of a small volunteer group–some of us are close friends, and some of us are casual friends/acquaintances. In ’08, all but one of us voted for Obama. In ’12, most of us voted for Obama, a few Mormons voted for Romney, and one person went libertarian. This time, I’m the only person who’s currently planning to vote for Hillary, the others are either not voting, voting third party (Johnson or Stein), and two are actually voting Trump. I think that one or two others will vote for Hillary…but they aren’t exactly enthusiastic about it. One told me that she’d only vote for her because she wants her grade-school-age daughter to grow up in a country where a woman is President. “I always wanted to put a woman in the White House, but I didn’t want it to be her…”

  68. 68.

    liberal

    @Ampersand:

    In the universe we actually inhabit, though, she needs to make more of a case for herself.

    Exactly. As I’ve said before, her campaign is reminiscent of that Onion article where John Kerry’s entire campaign is that…he’s not George Bush.

  70. 70.

    bystander

    I know many people have spoken about how horrible 2016 has been. But I would point out that both Scalia and Schlafly are gone, and Greta Van Susteren is out of a job. Van Susteren’s job loss is extra delicious as the new vipers give her the heave ho for sticking up for the old viper.

  71. 71.

    Matt McIrvin

    @NR:

    The blue wall is a myth. Nate Silver wrote an article about this. If Trump wins the popular vote he will also win the electoral college. Digging into the weeds about individual states is totally missing the point.

    The person who wins the national popular vote usually wins the electoral college–but the other side of the coin is that national polls are less accurate than aggregated state polls about the electoral college. Romney won plenty of these in the run-up to 2012 (especially from Rasmussen, but not just Rasmussen), whereas state-poll aggregates consistently showed Obama in the lead.

    Why it’s less accurate to aggregate national polls than to aggregate state polls is unclear. Sam Wang’s theory is that it’s just easier to do demographic adjustments across a swing state than across the whole country. Whether you’ve accurately modeled the relative turnout of Alabamans vs. New Yorkers does not matter.

    Not only that, you’re freaking out about an individual national poll. As the number of polls goes up, the error of large aggregates of polls should decrease, while the error of the most extreme outliers should increase (as the square root of the number of polls, more or less). It becomes more and more important to ignore shock-poll stories and look at aggregates.

    As far as I can tell, the race has genuinely tightened–to something almost as close as Obama vs. Romney 2012. The same caveats will apply as did then.

  72. 72.

    J.

    ‘Re ya gona doo somefing wiv yahhr life, ya fat bastard? ‘Re yew gona lay about da ‘hous all day?

    Talkin’ teh yerself agin, John Cole? ;-)

  73. 73.

    gwangung

    There are those on the left who don’t like Clinton-style triangulation.

    That always bugged me, to be honest. It was always clear to me that this was a tactic (and a needed one, at that) to win elections in the 90s.

    Objecting to that ignores two things a) winning elections in the 10s means different tactics, and b) you have to win elections to put policies into place.

    And, by the way,…

    In the universe we actually inhabit, though,

    Who’s “we” in that statement, white folks?

  75. 75.

    liberal

    @gwangung:

    It was always clear to me that this was a tactic (and a needed one, at that) to win elections in the 90s.

    Might have been true in the 1990s. Certainly isn’t true today.

  76. 76.

    NR

    @gwangung:

    This statement is one of the stupidest I’ve ever seen, if meant seriously.

    Considering it was nothing but a listing of facts, you have a very strange definition of what constitutes stupid.

  79. 79.

    Peale

    @liberal: I do think she made a case for herself during the convention and her policy speeches and her stump speech is full of reasons to vote for her. Unfortunately, unless she goes out of the way to take a jab at Trump, nothing else in the stump speech will be covered. The press is tired of listening to the same old speech and only cover policy announcements once unless they are “hardline” and ridiculous or effect them greatly. If she did have a policy to grab guns from white people and give them to hordes of rabid Asian Lesbians, she might break through the news.

  80. 80.

    Cat48

    @NR:

    She’s ahead by 6 points in the new Survey Monkey Poll by NBC. Same as last week.
    You can cry over the four way poll at CNN if you like.

  81. 81.

    liberal

    @Matt McIrvin:

    As far as I can tell, the race has genuinely tightened–to something almost as close as Obama vs. Romney 2012.

    Billmon tweeted a graph of the trends in the two races, and there was nothing to indicate that the trend behavior is worse now than in 2012. IIRC there were a lot of similarities. Still betting on Hillary to win. More interesting will be the Senate. (No Senate = no USSC appointments.)

  83. 83.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Please list the 2012 Obama states which you expect Trump to flip.

    I can’t speak for NR, but I can give my own personal expectations, in decreasing order of probability:
    1. Iowa
    2. Nevada
    3. Ohio
    4. Florida

    If Clinton loses all four of those and doesn’t flip North Carolina, she wins with 273 electoral votes.

  84. 84.

    Trollhattan

    What would the four Yorkshiremencats say?

    “Soft bedding; canned tuna? Why, in my day we had to chew a treebranch into pulp then push it into a wet lump just to have somewhere to sleep.”
    “Sleep? Sheer luxury! In my day we had to get up two hours before bed and lick the road clean, then catch mice and give them to the neighbors.”
    “Roads? Unbelievable! We were awoken with a direct lightning strike and before we could put our fur fires out, had to make breakfast for the neighbor dogs who lived on the other side of the swamp, then were beaten with mallets while reciting ‘Das Kapital.”
    “And cats today think they have it rough.”

  85. 85.

    Ampersand

    @Mnemosyne:

    You’re correct! Please, though, accuse us of all being racists, because that’s a surefire way to win over voters.

    Do you believe that there are no legitimate reasons to dislike Hillary? I’m not talking about the overblown or outright made-up stuff. I’m talking about the Clintons being a bit corporate, a bit neocon, a bit establishment. Some Clinton-wary people are racists, misogynists, and/or xenophobes. Some Clinton-wary people oppose her for ideological reasons.

  87. 87.

    Libby's Person

    I’m heading out to see Bill Clinton speak in Durham NC this afternoon! Here’s why I’m not too concerned – the Clinton team thinks NC is winnable. Woot! (And I’m working hard to help turn NC blue.). Off to see the Big Dog!

  88. 88.

    Trollhattan

    @Matt McIrvin:
    The only reason NR doesn’t comment daily is it takes longer than that to grow back the burnt hair.

    Sam Wang: As of September 6, 12:04PM EDT:
    Snapshot (124 state polls): Clinton 338, Trump 200 EV Meta-margin: Clinton +4.0%
    Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 86%, Bayesian 92%

  89. 89.

    Peale

    @gwangung: And she doesn’t appear to be triangulating. I’ve actually never quite understood what was so awful about triangulation to begin with. It’s like reading polls to see what might have popular support! How dare leaders do that in a democracy! I think Liberals assume that triangulation caused every policy they didn’t like in the Clinton administration.

  90. 90.

    Matt McIrvin

    @liberal: There’s more variability this time than in 2012–but it’s all on the high side for Hillary. Higher highs rather than lower lows.

  91. 91.

    Steeplejack (tablet)

    @amk:

    You don’t get shitcanned merely for being a troll. You have to be heinously (and usually personally) offensive.

  92. 92.

    gwangung

    @Ampersand:

    You’re correct! Please, though, accuse us of all being racists, because that’s a surefire way to win over voters.

    Very fragile there, I’ll note.

    I think it’s a fair cop, though, to denote it, as there’s a tendency to overgeneralize this experience. That’s not the same as calling you “racist”.

  96. 96.

    Ampersand

    @gwangung:

    The poster that asked me that question apparently sees racism behind every disagreement, and I’m the fragile one? Uh-huh.

    I’m voting for Hillary. I think she’s vastly better than the alternative, and she’s certainly a better politician (and person) than the media makes her out to be. But, sometimes, I feel like I’m watching the Yankees or the Red Sox in one of their down years. “How can someone be doing so little with so much?”

  97. 97.

    scav

    @Peale: Horrors! Turning to the hoi, the opinions of the hoi, in order to represent same same hoi in a representative democracy! Anathema! The hoi must be told good and proper what they believe repeatedly by their media betters, echoed by a strong forceful manly orange raccoon who spouts all possible unmovable opinions in a day, sometimes within even the same sentence fragment.

  98. 98.

    Matt McIrvin

    @NR:

    Obama beat Romney by 4 points in the popular vote. If Trump wins by 2, that’s a 6 point swing. The following Obama states were decided by less than 6 points in 2012: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Iowa.

    All those states flipping means President Trump, by the way.

    There is actual polling going on in all of those states right now. Of them, the only one that looks to me like a more-likely-than-not Trump win is Iowa.

    Florida and Ohio could be close, and also Nevada. In addition, Clinton has a good shot at flipping North Carolina. (One poll just came out showing her ahead in Texas, but I think that is an absurd outlier.)

    To win, Trump has to win all of the states I just mentioned, plus one more.

    What you’re doing here is using Nate Silver’s (correct) statement that the Electoral College is not magic, and using that as justification to throw out all this actual polling data in favor of a model based on the swerve in a single worrying CNN/ORC national poll.

    But the statement goes both ways. If you can predict state results from national results, you can also do the reverse.

  99. 99.

    Ampersand

    @Steeplejack (tablet):

    Well, I certainly didn’t like seeing a Bush foreign policy person up on the stage, a while back. But, in general, I think she’s doing much better in that area. I just worry, given the Clintons’ more moderate history.

  103. 103.

    Mnemosyne

    @NR:

    No, it was a listing of hypotheticals.

    I’m still waiting for you to tell us how many of those 10 states are showing Trump ahead right now.

  104. 104.

    Aleta

    An how shite is it when yer hangry after yous went oot yer way tae cook aww day and canny even eat one bite fae trippin over yer own dog fer fuck sake man.

  106. 106.

    Trollhattan

    @Ampersand:
    Nobody gives a flying fuck who you vote for [cough, Gary Johnson, cough] and the implication you speak for others or in your little head can influence the votes of others make you risible and pathetic.

    Thanks for playing.

  107. 107.

    mskitty

    @scav: uh, scav, “hoi” means “the”. If you wanna denote “the people” in the casual way you’re going at it, “polloi” is the word you want.

  109. 109.

    scav

    @Pogonip: What What the the! Let’s all go to the La Brea Tar Pits!

    ETA, yes, but we rarely go around discussing the other non-polloi and hoi is rarely attached to other things. But noted. I’m suddently fascinated by the Hoi Koi Polloi (sorry again for the extra the to purists)

  110. 110.

    Ampersand

    @Trollhattan:

    …ahh. So, anyone the least bit skeptical is now a secret libertarian? Well, I hope that you’re phone-banking for Hillary, because you’re certainly diplomatic and persuasive.

    I am indeed trying to influence the votes of others. My oldest friend is still planning to vote for Stein, but I’ve been working on him for months, and I think I’m making progress. Another friend isn’t planning on voting at all, but I’m trying to show her how dangerous Trump would be.

  111. 111.

    Mnemosyne

    @Ampersand:

    You’re correct! Please, though, accuse us of all being racists, because that’s a surefire way to win over voters.

    Just pointing out that white people have the luxury of worrying if Hillary is too corporate, too establishment for them. People of color don’t have that luxury. For them, having a white supremacist in charge would actually put their lives in danger, not just their pocketbooks.

    I’m not accusing you of being racist. I’m accusing you of being selfish and short-sighted. The people in your group need think about their fellow Americans, not just themselves and their feelings.

  112. 112.

    NR

    @Mnemosyne:

    No, it was a listing of hypotheticals.

    There is nothing hypothetical about the fact that Obama beat Romney by 4 points in 2012.

    There is nothing hypothetical about the fact that a 2 point Trump victory would represent a 6 point swing from 2012.

    There is nothing hypothetical about the fact that all the states I listed were decided by less than 6 points in 2012.

    And there is nothing hypothetical about the fact that winning all those states would put Trump in the White House.

    What exactly is hypothetical about anything I wrote?

  114. 114.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Trollhattan: There’s some glitch in his feed–no way is Vermont a tossup (I can’t find evidence of any possible poll that could have caused that).

  115. 115.

    NR

    @Matt McIrvin:

    There is actual polling going on in all of those states right now. Of them, the only one that looks to me like a more-likely-than-not Trump win is Iowa.

    Most of the state polling is a couple of weeks old at this point. If national polls have tightened, you can bet the same thing is happening at the state level.

  122. 122.

    catclub

    The WAPO survey monkey poll results

    Are fascinating:
    1. Texas Tied
    2. Mississippi favors Trump by 2%

    Lots of interesting tied or nearly tied states: Listing in order;
    OH(Trump up 3%), MS, GA, NC, AZ TX, CO, FL, MI, WI (Clinton up 2%)

    A lot of red states where Trump is severely underperforming 2012 results.

    Clinton both underperforms and over performs in states won in 2012 by Obama. MI, WI

  124. 124.

    Ampersand

    @Mnemosyne:

    I’m being selfish and short-sighted by…voting for Hillary, but also criticizing her?

    I agree that, when we vote, we need to think about everyone, and not just ourselves. Unfortunately, “vote to help these other people that live far away” is a harder sell than “vote to help yourself.” Most voters vote out of self-interest, either perceived or actual. I personally think that “Trump will screw things up for all of us, while Hillary will work to improve things for all of us” is the ideal message.

  125. 125.

    Betty Cracker

    Glenn Greenwald has written a lengthy screed about how outrageous it is that folks like Paul Krugman to attempt to “delegitimize all negative reporting about Hillary Clinton.” It’s about what you’d expect if you’re familiar with Greenwald’s oeuvre — many strawmen were torched — so not very interesting. But these bits jumped out at me:

    Paul Krugman did something that he made clear he regarded as quite brave…

    Krugman — in a tweet proclamation that has now been re-tweeted more than 10,000 times — heralded himself this way…

    As my colleague Zaid Jilani remarked: “I can imagine Paul Krugman standing in front of the mirror saying, ‘This is *your Tahrir Square* big guy.

    Thankfully, it appears that Krugman — at least thus far — has suffered no governmental recriminations or legal threats, nor any career penalties, for his intrepid, highly risky defense of Hillary Clinton.

    It’s as if Cole started sniping at Levenson for publishing obscenity-laden rants illustrated by photos of dog shit. Projection: It’s not just for the local mega-plex!

  126. 126.

    oldgold

    Questions I would like asked:

    Mr. Trump, given the tacit admission of wrong doing on the part of Roger Ailes that today’s $20 million settlement between Fox and Gretchen Carlson represents :

    1} Is Roger Ailes still part of your team; and, if so,

    2} What are you doing to protect women associated with your campaign from him?

  128. 128.

    The Thin Black Duke

    @Ampersand: Maybe I’m “fragile”, but when I see mobs of white supremacists who envision Trump as an opportunity to bring back the “Good Old Days”, I get nervous. I can understand why you don’t feel the same way.

  129. 129.

    NR

    @Chyron HR: Well since he’s polling two points ahead right now it’s really not that much of a stretch.

    He could even win by more if Hillary’s slide continues.

  131. 131.

    Matt McIrvin

    @NR: A huge raft of WaPo/SurveyMonkey state polls for a period ending around Sept. 2 came out today. And there are other recent polls in some swing states like VA, PA and CO.

    I do see definite tightening in the results, but nothing like the catastrophe you’re imagining. Trump’s leading in Iowa and maybe Ohio, that’s it. Of course weird things happen with small data sets: the WaPo/SM poll also shows Hillary winning Texas, which nobody should believe.

  132. 132.

    Trollhattan

    @Betty Cracker:
    Fucking Greenwald is having his magic Cloak of Legitimacy torn from his claws and is Having None of Your Nonsense [stamps feet].

    And if anybody ever wondered whether a double-TBogg Unit comment thread can utterly bork a tablet, I’m here to testify yes it can.

  133. 133.

    Matt McIrvin

    @NR:

    Well since he’s polling two points ahead right now it’s really not that much of a stretch.

    Provided that you cherry-pick the single most pro-Trump national number you can find of all results over the past week, and ignore all state polling. This is not the way to do this kind of analysis.

  134. 134.

    catclub

    Since this is an open thread, I will contribute by observation, which is mine.

    The predictions that Trump will skip the debates have disappeared.
    Predictions that Trump will quit before the election have also disappeared.

    Similar to; Does Trump ANY campaign organization (asked in fall 2015) and then he did actually hire some
    (near) professionals.
    Similar to: Does Trump have ANY fundraising?
    Similar to: Does Trump have any ground game?

    In these last three, it still looks like what he does have is pretty bad, but it does exceed the threshold of zero that was expected.

  136. 136.

    Ampersand

    @The Thin Black Duke:

    I don’t want the “Good Old Days” back, either, for a multitude of reasons. Trump absolutely terrifies me. I live in a red state, and I’m surrounded by crazy people, which is putting it mildly. I had to sit through a family dinner in which relatives claimed that Hillary was going to abolish Social Security–they say that about every Dem candidate–and I had to give the usual “No, it’s your party that wants to weaken the social safety net” speech. If you ever want to meet real racists, I’ll be happy to introduce you. Trump and his ilk are like nightmares come to life, and I’m doing everything I can to oppose them, but I’m not going to lie and say that I’m 100% comfortable with Hillary.

  139. 139.

    rikyrah

    @Mnemosyne:

    Just pointing out that white people have the luxury of worrying if Hillary is too corporate, too establishment for them. People of color don’t have that luxury. For them, having a white supremacist in charge would actually put their lives in danger, not just their pocketbooks.

    You ain’t never lied.

  141. 141.

    The Thin Black Duke

    @Ampersand: Again, please point out where I called you a racist. I called you uniformed. There is a difference. Oh, and you don’t need to introduce me to those “real” racists, they usually find me.

  144. 144.

    Cacti

    @liberal:

    Yeah…and IMHO Wang is better than Nate, at least insofar as his method is simpler and more transparent.

    Speaking of…

    PEC has the meta margin at Clinton +4.0%. Which is near the average for the entire cycle (3.8%), and somewhere between a high of 6.5% and a low of 2.5%.

    Bottom line…at no point has Donald Trump held the lead in the polling aggregate. It’s after Labor Day, and polling has pretty much reverted to the mean for the cycle.

  145. 145.

    rikyrah

    @The Thin Black Duke:

    @Ampersand: Maybe I’m “fragile”, but when I see mobs of white supremacists who envision Trump as an opportunity to bring back the “Good Old Days”, I get nervous. I can understand why you don’t feel the same way.

    Yeah…me too..

    Everyone NOT White knows what

    “Make America Great Again”

    Means..

    They wanna party like it’s 1948.

  146. 146.

    mapaghimagsik

    @Betty Cracker:
    Good on you for reading the man that singlehandedly brought us TL;DR

    Nipping at your own employers is brave. If Greenwald had a job besides pimping Greenwald, he might get that, but he’s too busy letting other people do that real work.

    Though it is awfully brave of him to put out writing that shitty.

  147. 147.

    ? Martin

    For the worriers, I would point out that a poll came out just today showing a dead heat in Texas. Now, at least one, and probably both of these polls are outliers but if you think that every poll has some measure of accuracy, consider if Clinton won Texas, how many other swing states she could lose (hint: all of them, and then a few more).

  149. 149.

    Trollhattan

    @rikyrah:
    Not only would they like to revisit the Jim Crow south, they’d like to rev up the Cold War and the constant potential for our imminent collective demise via nuclear holocaust. Yeah, that was fun. (Have to add the Trump-Putin mutual admiration club is for me, absolutely the most frightening aspect of his vile candidacy.)

  151. 151.

    Cacti

    @? Martin:

    For the worriers, I would point out that a poll came out just today showing a dead heat in Texas. Now, at least one, and probably both of these polls are outliers but if you think that every poll has some measure of accuracy, consider if Clinton won Texas, how many other swing states she could lose (hint: all of them, and then a few more).

    Buried in the latest click bait headline at Fivethirtyeight, is the reason I’m not terribly worried:

    10. What would keep me up late at night if I were Trump?

    As the polls have ebbed and flowed, I’ve been 8 or 10 points behind Clinton at my worst moments, but only tied with her at my best moments. I’ve also never gotten much above 40 percent in national polls, at least not on a consistent basis, and I’ve alienated a lot of voters who would allow me to climb higher than that. In other words, maybe that dreaded Trump ceiling is there after all, in which case I’ll have to get awfully lucky to win the election, probably needing both a favorable flow of news in the weeks leading up to Nov. 8 and a large third-party vote that works against Clinton.

    Trump’s high water mark in national polling has been about 45%. The state by state polling hasn’t shown him leading in any combination of states that get him to 270 EV.

  154. 154.

    Matt McIrvin

    @NR: Whereas you’re reasoning from the single scariest national poll result you can find from the past week. I can’t find any other recent polls in CO, but there are some about a week old in PA and NH, and they don’t show a rapid collapse in progress.

    If you want to do the kind of national trend adjustment of state results that you’re attempting correctly, it’s basically what 538 does in their “now-cast”. They take possibly stale state results, and adjust them for fluctuations in national polls since the state poll was taken. Drew Linzer does a version of this too, over at Daily Kos.

    Personally, I think this kind of analysis mostly just adds noise and superfluous drama, but they at least do it with a reasonable aggregate of national polls, and they weight state polls by age and trustworthiness. They’re the ones taking Clinton’s national chances down to around 70%, but they’re not currently showing Trump ahead.

  155. 155.

    Immanentize

    @rikyrah: Lynching statistics — 1930-1950
    YEAR WHITE BLACK TOTAL
    1930 1 20 21
    1931 1 12 13
    1932 2 6 8
    1933 2 24 26
    1934 0 15 15
    1935 2 18 20
    1936 0 8 8
    1937 0 8 8
    1938 0 6 6
    1939 1 2 3
    1940 1 4 5
    1941 0 4 4
    1942 0 6 6
    1943 0 3 3
    1944 0 2 2
    1945 0 1 1
    1946 0 6 6
    1947 0 1 1
    1948 1 1 2
    1949 0 3 3
    1950 1 1 2

    Tuskegee Institute. Those were not good old days for people of color….

    ETA The whole “good old days” thing requires a white-normal understanding of both good and days.

  157. 157.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    @Ampersand:

    “How can someone be doing so little with so much?”

    I heard Joe of the Morning say that last week. Joe, is that you?

  158. 158.

    rikyrah

    @Ampersand:

    The poster that asked me that question apparently sees racism behind every disagreement, and I’m the fragile one? Uh-huh.

    Soledad O’Brien spoke up, deriding her former network for normalizing White Supremacists.

    It’s not Non-Whites calling these folks White Supremacists.

    THAT’S WHAT THEY CALL THEMSELVES.

    But, we aren’t supposed to worry.

    Uh huh.
    Uh huh.

  159. 159.

    ruemara

    @Ampersand: I am fine with pointing out that racism exists on the left, with a particular concentration on the those who find it more worrisome that Hillary isn’t Noam Sanders de Guevara in drag than the Pumpkinhead Hitler who is her opponent. You don’t have to say the slur to be insultingly dismissive of PoC and their own agency and efforts in saving our own selves. We’ve survived and tolerated the benign neglect of Dems, we don’t need the Cassandra impression.

  161. 161.

    Patricia Kayden

    @NR: That’s a lie. It was weighted to over represent Repubs. By the way, 2% in a skewed poll is nothing for Trump’s bigoted supporters to celebrate. It’s well within the margin of error and is an outlier poll as others show Clinton in the lead.

    But I guess you have to work with what you’ve got. Try again.

  162. 162.

    Patricia Kayden

    @Ampersand: Has anyone in your small group identified what is so icky about Secretary Clinton that they would be ok with a Bigot like Donald Trump winning? It must be nice not to care who gets elected because it doesn’t impact you personally. Many of us don’t have that luxury for multiple reasons.

  166. 166.

    NR

    @Patricia Kayden:

    That’s a lie. It was weighted to over represent Repubs.

    No it wasn’t. Read the poll data. They weighted for demographic data, not for party ID.

    Maybe if you do some research before accusing people of lying, you won’t look so stupid next time. Just a suggestion.

  169. 169.

    JMG

    I personally have not been “comfortable” with any Presidential candidate I’ve ever voted for. All of them, even the really good ones, had flaws I could identify and wish they hadn’t got. Obama, the best of them, was far too optimistic and credulous about the nature of his opposition, and it cost him big time. People who say that are putting on airs that they are better people than pols, which they ain’t. It’s not a statement of personal virtue, it’s a goddamn hiring choice. PS: Anyone who votes for Stein is just a moron. She’s bats, and Stein voters should be shown the evidence (anti-vax, etc.) she is. Probably won’t change their minds. There ARE millions of Americans who deserve nothing better than President Trump. But the millions who don’t need him out of office more.

  170. 170.

    hovercraft

    This is our fair and balanced media:

    Philip Rucker
    ✔
    @PhilipRucker

    For those keeping track, Trump and Clinton are holding “dueling” events and all three cable news channels are airing Trump, not Clinton.
    2:37 PM – 6 Sep 2016

    CNN did eventually switch.

  172. 172.

    schrodinger's cat

    I finally had it with my “independent” friend. I told her that I am not buying that she is an independent anymore.
    Her reaction to Trump’s immigration speech was the last straw. She brought up the awful immigration bill that Bill Clinton signed in 1996, for her “both-sides-do-it” riposte.

  173. 173.

    JR in WV

    @NR:

    So you say:

    Trump is ahead by 2 in the latest CNN poll. Historically, the candidate who leads after Labor Day goes on to win the election.

    Hillary Clinton is going to go down as the worst presidential candidate at least since McGovern if not longer than that. For her to be losing to someone who is so manifestly unfit for the presidency is really amazing.

    While a real statistician publishes:

    Princeton Election Consortium

    As of September 6, 12:04PM EDT:

    Snapshot (124 state polls):
    Clinton 338, Trump 200 EV Meta-margin: Clinton +4.0%

    Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 86%, Bayesian 92%

    Senate snapshot (48 polls): Dem+Ind: 50, GOP: 50,
    Meta-margin: D +1.9%, Nov. control probability: Dem. 74%

    So CNN and you are both looking stupid in your snapshot single poll error.

    G’bye mate! And don’t you come back no more, no more, no more!

    ETA: appearance

  174. 174.

    JMG

    @hovercraft: I read the link. The only other person to bring it up was the abysmal Richard Cohen, who must be over 100 by now. Man, major newspaper pundit is a sweet, sweet gig. Get more than decent money for doing less work than a first base coach, and you aren’t replaced as long as you’re above ground.

  175. 175.

    Chyron HR

    @NR:

    They weighted for demographic data, not for party ID.

    I guess that’s the flipside of “We’re not suppressing black voters, we’re suppressing DEMOCRATIC voters.”

  176. 176.

    Botsplainer

    So I’m in my favorite little town in Mexico right now.

    Did a couple of BEAUTIFUL dives this AM, and am now two shots of tequila and four (or is it six) beers into the afternoon. Esposa is winging her way to India followed by Straya as we speak, and will be gone for 3 weeks plus.

    I have some thought about this lovely country and how angry I am at wingnuts over their bullshit defamation of it.

  178. 178.

    hovercraft

    @JMG:
    There are a whole bunch out there who never fail to depress me. MoDowd, Applebees’s salad bar, Thomas Friedman and his units, and the ever glorious Dolphin Lady herself Dame Peggy. Talk about money for nothing.

  181. 181.

    JR in WV

    @hueyplong:

    No, Sam has Hillary Clinton at 86% chance of winning…and down in his detailed article today, he adds

    In 2016, the Princeton Election Consortium’s state poll-based aggregate has only varied between a median outcome of 310 and 350 EV for Hillary Clinton.

  183. 183.

    Gelfling 545

    @NR: These polls cannot have been taken “after labor day” unless the polling was done in the wee hours of the morning. After labor day polling would start today.

  184. 184.

    gwangung

    @NR:

    No it wasn’t.

    That’s incorrect. Republicans over-represented 48% vs. 40%.

    Maybe if you actually did some reading you wouldn’t make such a foolish statement.

  187. 187.

    Miss Bianca

    @Ampersand: you don’t have to 100% comfortable with Hillary. Jesus Christ. Who’s “100% comfortable” with anybody? You’re not looking for a girlfriend, you’re looking for the POTUS. And since there’s only one viable, non-insane canddiate for POTUS, you just have to vote for her. Thanks for sharing your “concerns”, tho. That’s always so helpful.

  189. 189.

    gwangung

    @Ampersand: Let’s put it this way. A Clinton administration would be much better for minorities (both ethnic and sexual) than a Trump administration. Your friends don’t care about that and quite possibly see no value in caring about the well being of minority communities. Many people think that’s not a good position to take.

    Yeah. I think that fragility could be used here.

  191. 191.

    rk

    @Ampersand:

    You’re correct! Please, though, accuse us of all being racists, because that’s a surefire way to win over voters.

    My oldest friend is still planning to vote for Stein, but I’ve been working on him for months, and I think I’m making progress. Another friend isn’t planning on voting at all, but I’m trying to show her how dangerous Trump would be.

    I won’t accuse your friends of being racists, but these kind of personal crisis about who to vote for at this juncture is a luxury only white people can afford. I’m a non white and the choice for me has been clear cut. It’s Hillary, because the person running against her is a vile, racist, obnoxious, loathsome, evil SOB who, if there was any justice in the world would be in some cockroach infested gutter, starving while people pass him by spitting at him.
    So this nonsense of ..OMG I need to vote for Stein because Hillary did something something something….blah blah blah.. bullshit.. is very much a white thing. All the non whites I know will go into the voting booth, look at the choices, on one side are Democrats and on the other are assholes, will pull the lever for the democrats and move on. It’s not that complicated and if your friends can’t see that then, it’s not because they’re racists, it’s because they’re white. There’s a reason Trump is polling at 1% with African-Americans and 19% with latinos and 55% with whites. Non whites had his number a long long time ago. I’m actually very proud of African-Americans. They’ve proved themselves to be the sanest people in the country. Everyone who is voting for Trump needs to have their head examined.

  192. 192.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    @Miss Bianca: The Presidential campaign is an extended job interview. When you hire somebody, they will never check off all the boxes for the position you’re hiring for. If you insist upon waiting until someone does, you’ll never hire anyone.

  193. 193.

    NR

    @gwangung:

    That’s incorrect. Republicans over-represented 48% vs. 40%.

    Okay, since people are posting stuff that is just flat-out not true, how about we look at the actual poll data?

    Oh look, what do we have here?

    A total of 1,001 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. Among the entire sample, 28% described themselves as Democrats, 32% described themselves as Republicans, and 40% described themselves as independents or members of another party.

    And how did they arrive at this sample?

    All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, and telephone usage.

    So, again: The pollsters did not weight for party ID. They weighted for demographic data based on the census. The party ID is what respondents self-reported.

    It’s really not that complicated.

  198. 198.

    JR in WV

    @Ampersand:

    I like Hillary because she started working to help those with less opportunity than her nearly as soon as she got out of school. She worked for disabled children, to get them admitted to school, something we take nearly for granted today.

    She worked to register people to vote along the Rio Grande in TX, people who might vote for her now, 35 or 40 years later.

    She did all that while still a very young woman, and since then has learned the things she needs to know to run the nation. There is no reason to dislike her, and many to admire her. Plus I think she is a likable person, just from watching her in lunch cafes and roadside restaurants, interacting with a small group of local folks.

    Just my $0.02 – you are allowed to think her an arrogant snob if you want. I think a big part of why the Villagers don’t like her is because she isn’t an arrogant snob like them.

    They hate her for not recognizing that Hillary Clinton should want to be one of them, the mean girls of DC. And I’m including David Brooks and his ilk in that group.

  201. 201.

    JR in WV

    @gwangung:

    Compromise is what Republicans won’t do with Democrats. and IOKIYAR

    Triangulation is what Democrats do to try to get Republicans to compromise with them. And that’s treason, off to Gitmo!

  202. 202.

    NR

    @rk: Except that the Democratic party’s corporatism is the reason that we’re staring down the barrel of having a vile, racist, obnoxious, loathsome, evil SOB as president.

    How does the quote go? When reasonable politicians refuse to discuss important issues, the people will turn to unreasonable candidates.

  203. 203.

    Trollhattan

    @germy:
    Indeed she was, and it was nice to see the feeble pushback (“Those slaves were treated really well, yo”) shouted down so quickly and effectively.

    If Republicans have feared the Rise of the Hillary for twenty-five years, they’re utterly mortified at the idea of Michelle running for high office. I wouldn’t wish that on her for a nanosecond and think she’s uninterested, but the fact they’re expending nervous energy on the possibility makes me smile a little. They’ve got bupkis on her after eight long years. Nuttin’.

  204. 204.

    JR in WV

    @NR:

    Deriving a future result from your unrelated “facts” is way more unlikely than hypothetical. Because they are unrelated.

    The sky is blue, therefore spaghetti for dinner! With garlic bread!!

  205. 205.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    apparently the GOP leadership is sticking to their brilliant idea of bringing up guns in a race that includes Donald Trump and talking about “punishing” John Lewis

    Emmarie Huetteman emmarieNYT
    “I think you will see appropriate measures taken in the very near future,” Rep. McCarthy said re: punishments for Dems’ sit-in in June.

    I’m not surprised McCarthy is this stupid, but I suspect Ryan is gonna start drinking like Reince Priebus

  207. 207.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    It’s almost as if he doesn’t know anything

    Tim Mak timkmak
    “Qadhafi was so strong on wanting to, you know, because he knew what was going to happen”

    Eli Stools ‏ EliStokols 2h2 hours ago
    Trump answers ? on cyber warfare by talking about terrorists online recruiting; then on ? about regime change in Syria, he blasts Iran deal.

  208. 208.

    CONGRATULATIONS!

    ITT Tech just pulled the plug on their whole house of cards. And another “for profit” insititution of higher grifting bites the dust.

    @Gravenstone: A bitter hurrah. It was very well known in the trade that this was a useless education that got you nothing as far back as the very early 00s. It’s a fucking disgrace and no credit to our government that they finally got their money spigot turned off – in 2016.

  209. 209.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    @NR:

    Except that the Democratic party’s corporatism is the reason that we’re staring down the barrel of having a vile, racist, obnoxious, loathsome, evil SOB as president.

    No. You may be too young(or may have not been paying attention) to notice the late 70’s and early 80’s. There was this guy named Reagan.

  213. 213.

    rk

    @NR:

    Except that the Democratic party’s corporatism is the reason that we’re staring down the barrel of having a vile, racist, obnoxious, loathsome, evil SOB as president.

    How does the quote go? When reasonable politicians refuse to discuss important issues, the people will turn to unreasonable candidates.

    Are you a moron? Democrats are the reason for Trump? Only a witless twit would even begin to make that argument. Donald Trump exists because one party in this country decided 40 years ago to have a deliberate strategy of appealing to only whites. Donald Trump exists as a consequence of republican actions. If the democratic party was responsible for Trump, then Trump should be getting support from a racially diverse group of people. Or did democratic corporatism somehow bypassed all the non-whites in this country?
    You know pulling random arguments from your backside is not a very impressive trick.

  216. 216.

    Peale

    @?BillinGlendaleCA: If we had just continued down the road toward the social welfare state that FDR put us on, we’d be in a Scandinavian paradise by now. Of course, huge swaths of voters rejected that idea again and again and again and again. And not surprisingly, many otherwise stalwart Democratic voters like the idea of being ruled by a conservative daddy.

    (OMG! Clinton too many positions that are popular with VOTERS! Why can’t we have the types of pols in our party that like to tell voters to kiss off?)

  218. 218.

    Mnemosyne

    @NR:

    So, again: The pollsters did not weight for party ID. They weighted for demographic data based on the census.

    A majority of white people are Republicans. It’s over 50 percent for both men and women, and for white men it’s more like 60 percent.

    So, yes, using census data is going to cause overrepresentation of Republicans in your sample, because a specific demographic group is heavily Republican.

  220. 220.

    FEMA Camp Counselor

    I forget, is NR a DougJ Original Creation or the latest regeneration of “UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH!”?

    Either way, I’d recommend a reshuffle back at central casting. This concern troll routine just isn’t up to snuff with previous efforts.

  221. 221.

    JMG

    All polls make assumptions about the electorate, because the sample never actually matches either existing demographic nor party ID data, since samples must consist of people willing to participate in a poll — an ever-shrinking slice of the public. So assumptions are made to try and mold the self-selected respondents into some model of voter behavior. As I understand, CNN’s poll assumed that whites would be a higher percentage of the electorate in 2016 than in 2012, presumably because Obama’s not on the ballot. They could be right. They could be wrong. But 60 days from Election Day, it’s a best guess at best. Goes for the more Clinton-favorable polls, too.
    Out of curiosity, how many here have been polled ever, and how many here would simply not respond, online or by phone, because they have better things to do?

  222. 222.

    NR

    @rk:

    If the democratic party was responsible for Trump

    I never said the Democratic party was responsible for Trump. I said that Democratic corporatism is a big part of the reason we could end up with him as president.

    Engage the argument I actually made, rather than the one you want to pretend I made.

  223. 223.

    Mnemosyne

    @Ampersand:

    I personally think that “Trump will screw things up for all of us, while Hillary will work to improve things for all of us” is the ideal message.

    And that’s the message I’m getting from the campaign every day in emails, in texts, and on Facebook. Hillary is running a very positive campaign with a lot of information about her policies and proposals.

    I would ask your friends what they think Donald Trump will do to make the country better. He’s running on an explicit platform of killing universal healthcare, cutting taxes on the rich, and deporting immigrants. Which of those are your friends most in favor of?

  224. 224.

    CONGRATULATIONS!

    @?BillinGlendaleCA: Born and grew up in SoCal. Thought fish tacos were shit (Rubio’s, and if you’ve ever eaten their swill you’re forgiven for giving up on the fish taco concept) until I had one made with legit fresh fish (shark, in fact) caught by a friend.

    Nothing better.

  229. 229.

    1,000 Flouncing Lurkers (was fidelioscabinet)

    @scav: I’m pretty sure fish (even ornamental ones) are more concerned with global warming that the typical Trump voter, and their position on illegal immigration is that we should go after the bosses, not the small fry, who wouldn’t be here without their help. Also, he’s not saying what they want to hear with regard to the EPA and anti-pollution regs generally.

    That’s just my guess, though. Fish are the real silent majority.

  233. 233.

    rk

    @NR:

    You say that:

    I never said the Democratic party was responsible for Trump. I said that Democratic corporatism is a big part of the reason we could end up with him as president.

    But you actually wrote

    Except that the Democratic party’s corporatism is the reason that we’re staring down the barrel

    You think what you write a few comments above sinks into some kind of a black hole? Why should I engage with someone making gibberish arguments. You make a statement, then contradict it and expect someone to engage in an argument with you. With such a lack of coherent thought process it’s no wonder you’ve been gloating over a stupid poll all afternoon.

  235. 235.

    JR in WV

    @JMG:

    I got a long poll via land line (our only home phone!) a month or two ago. Very specific questions, how certain are you to vote? Will you vote for Clinton or Trump? etc. Took at least 15 minutes. Of course I am 100% certain I will be voting, if I’m alive and responsive, and that vote will be for Clinton, 100% certain.

    I always do polls if I possibly can. If I just started a stir fry, nope. I find that I learn quite a bit from the poll. We have also both gotten local state race polls this election season.

    Once I got a commercial poll, very professional, out of Cincinnati, where Proctor & Gamble and Krogers are HQed.

    The subject of the poll was 45 minutes of questions about:
    are u ready?

    Toilet paper. I laughed my ass off at times, and asked the very professional young lady conducting the poll if she often got slowed by laughter – she said yes, frequently. Tons of questions, all well written to be polite and proper.

    The best one was “Which brand of toilet paper, (list) makes you the most proud to buy?” amazing…..

    Took about 45 minutes, 10 or 15 of which was me laughing too hard to respond. Of course mostly I picked the paper we usually buy…

    And Hillary!!!

  236. 236.

    catclub

    @rk:

    Why should I engage with someone making gibberish arguments.

    this is where you need to stop.

    Do not feed the troll.

  239. 239.

    JMG

    @JR in WV: I should give my own history to be honest. I respond or don’t respond depending on what I’m doing at the time. Now that I’m retired, I expect I’ll answer more polls. Funniest poll I ever took was from Rasmussen (they ID’ themselves right off, very professional). It was right about this time of year in 2010. Started off asking my party ID, how I identified ideologically, and if I approved of Obama’s job performance. Just as I was waiting for the election questions to start, the robovoice started asking me about the baseball pennant races. Who did I think would win, who did I want to win. When that was over, the voiced thanked me and hung up. To this day I wonder who commissioned that one.

  240. 240.

    hovercraft

    @rk:
    @NR Is a troll who only shows up when there is polling showing Trump ahead, when is behind, he runs and hides. As to the democrats are responsible for Trump trope, that is the new excuse for Trumps rise in the GOP. Remember that the party of responsibility is never actually responsible. Democrats have been mean to republicans and called them bigots and racists for years, and so when a real bigot and racist came along the democrats had cried wolf so many times that the base was inured to the message.

  241. 241.

    scav

    @JMG: I’d imagine enough of us hang up automatically over purely product-oriented questionnaires that companies throw in a few election-related questions (when possible) to lure people into hanging around. But then, I’m also pretty easy about hanging up mid-call if questions get biased or rolling over into Operation Optimize Outlier if I I feel like wasting our mutual time.

  242. 242.

    NR

    @rk: Nothing in the first statement you quoted in any way contradicts anything in the second. Learn to read and comprehend.

    Now, do you want to address the argument I actually made, or keep going off on irrelevant tangents?

  244. 244.

    NR

    @Doug R: Don’t bet on that one either. Nate Silver talked about this on Twitter today. If Hillary gains with Hispanics and Trump gains with whites, Trump wins the electoral college. The reason is that half of US Hispanics live in California and Texas, two states that will not be competitive in a close election.

  245. 245.

    Botsplainer

    So the dive guide’s incredibly hot girlfriend just invited me down to the locals nude beach a km down the road. I’m in…

  247. 247.

    JPL

    @NR: Chuck Todd just had analysts on about the CNN poll. Two things that you might find interesting, are they polled 4 percent more repubs then democrats, and you miss a large segment of the college educated and wealthy by polling on a holiday weekend.

  249. 249.

    Cacti

    @NR:

    The reason is that half of US Hispanics live in California and Texas, two states that will not be competitive in a close election.

    Florida?

  250. 250.

    Trollhattan

    @JPL: Listened to an interview last weekend (“On the Media”) detailing why and how aggregated statewide polls greatly outperform nationwide polls, which while not completely worthless are not predictors in the least. Do not use.

  251. 251.

    Mnemosyne

    @NR:

    How can census data “overrepresent” anything when it reflects the actual demographics of the country?

    Because the various demographics of the country are not spread evenly between all 50 states. As was shown in 2012, you can have 62 percent of white men vote Republican and still lose the election because of that pesky ol’ electoral college that apportions by state, not demographic.

    What that poll tells me is that white people in this country are so fragile that even when Hillary says, Donald Trump is a white supremacist, and here’s the proof, white voters turn against her.

  252. 252.

    catclub

    @rikyrah:

    Willard got SIXTY PERCENT of the White vote in 2012.
    And it didn’t even matter

    And so far, Trump is doing worse than Romney did with whites overall – too bad there are college educated white women – sad!.

    – not just non-college educated white men.

  253. 253.

    Mnemosyne

    @Doug R:

    Well, we know it can’t be racism, because racism doesn’t exist, except against white people. So it must be that white supremacists are less corporate.
    //

  254. 254.

    JR in WV

    @NR:

    Hillary has California locked down, she has those electorial votes in the bank. She’s also near a tie in Texas, due to those Latino voters you’re disregarding.

    So your remarks about CA and TX meaning we don’t need to account for Latino voters seems deranged to me.

    To everyone else, sorry about provoking the troll ! I can’t resist when they go deranged, the target is too easy…

  257. 257.

    catclub

    @JR in WV:

    She’s also near a tie in Texas

    She is near a tie: in one poll (internet). It is a pretty large outlier. It would be nice, but not likely.

  259. 259.

    FlipYrWhig

    I like how NR skulks around in the shadows FOR WEEKS waiting for bad poll results, and then upon finding some RUSHES to the Internet to share the very honest and deeply-felt concern he’s been storing up since April.

  260. 260.

    JPL

    @NR: So you believe in a poll done over a holiday weekend with republicans weighted higher than dems. You must have been up all night in tears when Romney lost.

  261. 261.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @p.a.: Hey, I resent the fuck outa that–I have a WV cousin who’s moving up the ranks in the IOOF & he sounds like sweet reason incarnate compared with the tangerine ferretheaded shitgibbon.

  262. 262.

    Chyron HR

    @NR:

    Awww, you slipped up and admitted that you “like” polls where Trump is ahead. Tough luck, sport.

  264. 264.

    NR

    @Chyron HR: Do you not understand what a direct quote is? Those were Nate Silver’s words, not mine, and they don’t even say what you claim they say. Try harder.

  267. 267.

    rikyrah

    @JR in WV:
    I know that Texas is the White Whale of Democratic politics on the Presidential level, but still. …
    Even imagining GOP faces on election night if they ever color Texas blue…..
    Videos for days in YouTube

  268. 268.

    Frank Wilhoit

    There is a pet shop up the road from me who have a mascot who looks exactly like Steve — except much longer and fatter. Seems a little less spoiled^H^H^H^H^H^H^Hegotistical as well. If they ever posted a picture of him, it was longer ago than I have patience to page back through their posts. I quite realize that what I have said is implausible on its face, but I assure you that this cat is bigger than our beagle.

  272. 272.

    Trollhattan

    @rikyrah:
    Forcing the Rs to spend real money defending once automatic states is a tactic worth repeating again, and again, and….

    Texas owes the nationworld big-time for Dubya and they’re doubling-down with Cruz.

  278. 278.

    Trollhattan

    @JPL:
    Guilty as well. Once thought this was a panicky Berner but now understand it’s a faux liberal sewing seeds of feigned discontent. We had quite the onslaught this a.m. Flit has been summoned. In the meantime, I’m on Greenwald watch.

  279. 279.

    Mnemosyne

    Also, too, while Nate and 538 are still quite useful, he does have a major blind spot when emotions come into the mix. Remember, he was confidently predicting that Mickey Rourke was going to win the Best Actor Oscar for “The Wrestler,” but he forgot to take into account that Mickey Rourke is an asshole who burned a lot of bridges with his colleagues, so they decided not to vote for him.

    So, yeah, it’s going to come down to who’s willing to crawl over broken glass for their candidate. I’m willing to do it for Clinton — NR is willing to do it for Trump. We’ll have to see how many are in each group.

  280. 280.

    gogol's wife

    I’m hoping that there will be a string of great speeches by Obama, Warren, Kaine, and Clinton, and we’ll have something to talk about other than polls and cable news. And I hope people will stop feeding trolls!

  281. 281.

    NR

    @Trollhattan: What’s adorable is you guys doing the same thing the unskewers did in 2012 and imagining it’s somehow different this time.

    Free clue: It’s not.

  282. 282.

    JMG

    Nate Silver, as I’ve said before, cannot afford to be wrong on any presidential election. Since the data is murky right now (it is, let’s face it, if one poll has Trump up one and another Clinton up six),. he will hedge his ass off until the picture becomes clearer, assuming it ever does.

  284. 284.

    Miss Bianca

    @Trollhattan: What, you think GG is going to show up here? Or are you chanting his name thrice in the hopes that he’ll show up like “Bloody Mary” in the bathroom mirror?

    ETA: Since we have it on the highest authority (his own, naturlich!) that he disdains the BJ commentariat.

  286. 286.

    Trollhattan

    @Miss Bianca:
    Given his very public disdain display at LGM last night and our being somewhat joined with them at the hip, I’m on high alert. “This site canna handle a double-TBogg kiptin; our circuits will be a puddle ‘o lead.”

  287. 287.

    Trollhattan

    @NR:

    you guys doing the same thing the unskewers did in 2012

    Repeating something ad nauseam Does. Not. Make. It. So. You also clearly don’t understand what those folks were doing four years ago. If you could pin it on posters and commenters here, you’d have done so, sparky.

    Here’s a dime: That clue can be yours! Now go get your shine box.

  288. 288.

    Miss Bianca

    @Trollhattan: Funny you should mention that, I’ve been munching away at the double T-Bogg over at LGM off and on today – and Lord! If ever I had been in any doubt that the creature was a thin-skinned, self-important, intellectually dishonest hack, his posturing on that thread would have confirmed it for me.

  291. 291.

    Mnemosyne

    @NR:

    Uh-huh. And when Dr. Smith ran around shrieking, “We’re doomed!” that really meant he was on the Robinsons’ side the whole time. Secretly.

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