A horrific forecast:
NHC now expects #Maria to approach Dominica tonight as a Cat 4, and strengthen to near Cat 5 before landfall in USVI/PR pic.twitter.com/XKvGg14Sx4— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) September 18, 2017
For those in the Caribbean, be careful.
For everyone, review your response plan just in case.
Roger Moore
Is it too soon to talk about global warming?
Betty Cracker
Stay safe in the Lesser Antilles, other Betty! We’ll be thinking of you.
My husband and I heard from our friend in St. Thomas on Friday for the first time since Irma hit. Can’t bear to think of the poor guy going through all that again.
Jeffro
@Roger Moore: apparently so
Omnes Omnibus
What is the deal with this giant ad?
Fair Economist
If Maria strikes Puerto Rico as a Cat 4, it will be the third Cat 4 to hit the United States this year. The previous record is – one. Also, all 3 have been “popup majors” – relatively weak storms that abruptly strengthened to major hurricanes. Those *used* to be unusual.
Obviously the wrong time to talk about global warming.
Major Major Major Major
@Roger Moore: maybe we can talk about gun control instead.
SiubhanDuinne
@Omnes Omnibus:
The one for Huckabee’s new teevee show?
Adria McDowell
Hope other Betty stays safe. Dominica is in Maria’s sights.
@Betty Cracker: We just heard from family in PR (after my parents returned to Florida after Irma passed- surprisingly no damage to their house or to my brother’s work place: Hernando County and Lakeland, respectively). The fam in PR still have no electricity, and therefore, no tap water. And now they are facing down Maria as well. They are in SE PR, which looks like where Maria will directly hit. More salt on their wound.
Everyone in Maria’s path- please stay safe!!!
Omnes Omnibus
@SiubhanDuinne: No, it is 8 or 9 little ads in a row. “20 super foods that you should eat,” etc.
schrodingers_cat
@Omnes Omnibus: It is particularly annoying on the phone.
RSR
That is exactly the same musical reference I though when the the system became a named storm. :(
eric
By the way, for all the God Judgment/Punishment folk, I thought God made a covenant with Noah never to do that again.
Thus shall I establish My covenant with you; Never again shall all flesh be cut off by the waters of the flood; never again shall there be a flood to destroy the earth (Genesis 9:11).
Roger Moore
@eric:
There’s a difference between a global flood that wipes out all mankind and a local flood that punishes people in one little area. God only promised never to do the first; he’s apparently just fine doing the second.
ETA: I think there are even some crazy Christianists who claim that passage proves sea level rise from global warming can’t be real.
Major Major Major Major
@schrodingers_cat: I finally had to install a mobile ad blocker.
schrodingers_cat
@Major Major Major Major: Which one do you use? I may have to try one myself.
OzarkHillbilly
@Major Major Major Major: Nope. There were thousands of shootings yesterday. Thoughts and prayers for the families of the victims.
sherparick
@Roger Moore: I am a complete “Warmist.” But hurricanes, even big hurricanes, are themselves probably not the best argument. Hurricanes have been a frequent and regular feature of the Western North Atlantic since at least the end of Wisconsin Glaciation. Global warming does make the storms worse due to the rising sea level with higher storm surge flooding, greater beach erosion, and higher rainfall amounts. The increase in sea level is about 3 mm a year (because of currents and winds, it is higher on the East Coast of the U.S. and the gradual movement north of plant zones (just look changes from 1970 to now in the range of different zones). The effects of warming on us humans is very much like cooking a frog slowly hearing water. By the time we notice it is to hot, we will already be cooked.
eric
@Roger Moore: You are right about the crazies. The notion of collective punishment has always been a problem, and one that was supposed to end with the coming of Jesus.
Amir Khalid
@Roger Moore:
In America — pretty much the only country where climate-change denialism is official government policy — now is never the time to talk about global warming.
Major Major Major Major
@schrodingers_cat: AdGuard (free version) on iOS.
FlipYrWhig
@Amir Khalid: @Roger Moore:
Joseph Addison, _Cato_, 1714, one of the favorite plays of the American Revolutionary generation.
SiubhanDuinne
@Omnes Omnibus:
Yes, I hate those too, but have trained myself to scroll on by and ignore. But the Huckabee banner ad up top is just fucking intrusive.
Roger Moore
@sherparick:
Hurricanes may not be the best argument, but there is a link. In particular, hurricanes are driven by warm surface water. Global warming is causing that surface water to be warmer and stay warm later in the year than it has been in the past. That’s why we’re seeing hurricanes that are bigger, intensify faster, and occur later in the year than the historical pattern.
Brendancalling
@Roger Moore: it’s always too soon.
mdblanche
@Fair Economist: Will all you fake news lieberals stop worrying. This is an easy problem to solve. All we have to figure out is how do you catch a cloud and pin it down.
Darrin Ziliak (formerly glocksman)
Ask her to take a letter to your wife?
/s
Darrin Ziliak (formerly glocksman)
@schrodingers_cat:
AdAway on android is very effective at ad-killing.
The only drawbacks to it is that your device has to be rooted, and you have to temporarily enable “install unknown apps” to install it since it’s only available via direct download and not the Play Store.
J R in WV
What if we discover this year that we can’t afford to pay for the infrastructure along the east coast to be replaced over and over again?
If weather conditions make the coast unable to maintain a technical civilization what then? How much money will be spent rebuilding the power grid, the water systems, the sanitary systems, schools, hospitals, over and over before someone finally says “Enough, we can’t do this anymore!”
To say nothing about the islands in the Caribbean!
Mnemosyne
@sherparick:
Being a non-scientist myself, it seems like hurricanes are the perfect opportunity to explain global warming, because it’s not that there are more numerous hurricanes, but that the ones we’re getting are more powerful and destructive because of global warming (the rise in the temperature of the ocean). It makes the whole concept of why a small change in the temperature of the ocean is such a big deal more comprehensible.
TenguPhule
@Omnes Omnibus:
Which one? They’re all big and horrible and plastered all over the site now.
The Pale Scot
@sherparick: I think I mentioned here that water has been crazy warm here on the St Petersburg FL coast for over a year. I go swimming in the winter when it cools every day. For a decade every Jan-Feb the water dropped to 62F or so. Last year it never got under 70. The offshore bouys said 68F but it was definitely warmer at the beach. So there’s an incredible BTU load being carried out in the Carib at the moment. IMHO the solar heated upper water layer is deeper than normal. So thick that Irma, as huge as it was, didn’t cool it enough to hinder the next in line. We’re in for 3 or 4 more weeks of tropical depressions.
It amazing to watch the infra satellite maps of mid Atlantic weather. Every evening a blast of hot air comes off The west Moroccan coast and starts heading our way. Sometimes they start spinning, sometimes they don’t.
Arclite
@Omnes Omnibus: Giant ads are far preferable to auto play videos that bug the crap out of me, suck my bandwidth, and make the site unusable on my phone. I can just scroll past these, and the site works fine these days. And static pics are not a lot of bandwidth.
Corporeal Clegg
OR … or, or … now hear me out….
“They Call the Wind Maria”
Boatboy_srq
Title puts a whole new spin on catching a cloud and pinning it down.
Also on the many things you know AGCC deniers ought to understand.
Boatboy_srq
@The Pale Scot: We will soon see a time when FL beach resorts will market hot baths “only steps from your beachfront villa”.
TenguPhule
@Arclite:
But we’re still stuck with the auto-play ads in addition to the new big ugly ads of spam.
Boatboy_srq
@J R in WV: The biggest problem with FL is how far back from water’s edge is considered salvageable. Well drilling has already resulted in salt intrusion perhaps two miles inland, and municipal water systems are far fewer than would first appear (not to mention immensely unpopular because of their non-zero cost to implement and maintain). Theres a lot of less-than-millionaire grade housing that would need to be abandoned and residents relocated, and that’s a lot of pain for any community to handle.
HeleninEire
@Darrin Ziliak (formerly glocksman): Oh very good. We are old.
J R in WV
@The Pale Scot:
Scot,
How about a link to those sat images – I wouldn’t mind being able to take a look myself!
JR
Raoul
I assume that after Harvey, Irma and Jose but before Maria is not a good time to discuss climate issues like warming seas and increased water vapor in the atmosphere.
Yeah, I thought not.
The Pale Scot
@J R in WV: This is the satellite, I had an app (widget) on my mac OS that streamed pics from it. I don’t have the bandwidth to find it, I’m not home yet, I’m refugeeing. But you should be able find a loop.
Atlantic Ocean Satellite
There’s a Tropical Atlantic Ocean Satellite also with better res.