The president wants Senator Majority Leader McConnell to give away his biggest tool if/when he is in the minority for a $5 billion appropriation and little else.
A statement by the President: pic.twitter.com/FBuoHj4sDD
— Real Press Sec. (@RealPressSecBot) December 21, 2018
Tierney-Sneed at TPM makes the immediately relevant point:
$5 billion in wall money for the elimination of the biggest obstacle to Dems’ legislative agenda if they win back White House and Senate seems like … kind of a good deal for progressives?
— Tierney Sneed (@Tierney_Megan) December 21, 2018
We can be fairly certain that after 1/4/19, there will be no more wall appropriations going through the House. A working 51 vote Senate will only pass bills for the White House to sign that Nancy Pelosi approves.
One of the major discontinuities in legislative procedure is that enacting administratively complex programs that have major policy imperatives in it currently are not able to go through reconciliation. These bills can be fillibustered and stopped with a 41 vote minority. Medicare for All and/or the Affordable Care Act, the Green New Deal, the new Voting Rights and Civil Rights Acts that are all on the Democratic agenda’s first page once they get a trifecta currently require sixty votes in the Senate. The major Republican policy priorities of confirming Federalist Society judges, and upper income tax cuts can be passed with fifty one votes in either regular order or reconciliation. Additionally, fifty one votes is all that is needed to defund major programs as we saw with Skinny Repeal, Graham-Cassidy, AHCA, and BCRA.
Trading a $5 billion appropriation for a wall that will slowly if ever be built in order to get a 51 vote Senate is a very good deal for Democrats and liberals especially if they aren’t being blamed for the nuclear option. It takes away some of the counter-majoritarian and anti-democratic structures that limit liberal and urban power and opens up opportunity space.
Anyone who thinks about the structure of American politics will see this in under three sips of coffee. And that is why I have no expectation that the Senate Majority Leader will burn one of his most effective tools he used as a Minority Leader for effectively piffle.
mapaghimagsik
Doesn’t this kind of assume we can expect good-faith dealing? It seems there is no deal they won’t break? Literally, they say “No we didn’t” minutes after they did. So I’m not sure how you make a deal work.
kindness
No! Because we still have 2 years of this Congress starting in January. The damage they could do without a filibuster would be impossible to fix.
oldster
Agreed: McConnell ain’t going to fall for this.
On the other hand, it *will* piss of Trump and get him to say a lot of rude things about McConnell. And that in turn will alienate the Senate Repubs just that little bit further. So that’s good.
I wonder how Nancy could have made such a beginner’s mistake as telling Trump that he wouldn’t have enough votes in the House? She’s a notoriously canny vote-counter. You don’t suppose she might have miscounted? Or misspoken? Or maybe just goaded the loathsome sh*t into running full-tilt into this particular brick wall?
JPL
Why not wait until they have control of the Senate? The one thing they could get passed now is protection for Mueller.
moonbat
Jeez, that’s tempting I have to say.
JPL
@oldster: They were able to get the votes in the house, because they were assured it was a meaningless vote.
tobie
@oldster: I hate to say it but we were burned on this. House Republicans decided it was more important to sock it to Nancy Pelosi than to stand up for country and the government and pass a continuing resolution that both parties would support. Here’s the roll call for yesterday’s vote. Departing House members like Leonard Lance and Ryan Costello who pose as moderates on TV all voted for the budget bill with $5 billion for Wall, ‘cuz even moderate GOPers would be happy to see the country burn if it hurts Democrats.
David Anderson
@kindness:
No we have 2 more weeks of this Congress. On 1/3/19, we have a new Congress. That Congress has Nancy Smash in a veto holding position.
a 51 vote Senate is irrelevant in what passes and gets to the White House compared to a 60 vote Senate. Anything that gets to the White House will be in an agreement zone that contains Nancy Pelosi+most if not all of the Dem. House Caucus + Mitch McConnell + most if not all of the Senate GOP caucus + a few Democratic Senators
That is the minimal viable budget passing coalition with a 60 vote Senate. A 51 vote Senate makes it:
Nancy Pelosi+most if not all of the Dem. House Caucus + Mitch McConnell + most if not all of the Senate GOP caucus
The only way that this is pragmatically different than the 60 vote Senate is either marginally OR if you think that Nancy Pelosi’s agreement zone is significantly to the right of the 7-9 Democratic Senators who were needed in the other minimal viable coalition.
I am assuming that anything that does meet the Speaker Pelosi’s agreement zone will be good enough for at least a dozen Democratic Senators to vote for it.
Quinerly
@oldster: I, too, have pondered how Nancy made the mistake in her count. Rain into a buzz saw on a thread saying that I needed to read the transcript from 12/11. So I did. Still had the same takeaway.
Mary G
@oldster: I think she was baiting him into a shutdown that he will be held solely responsible for. Also to piss off Mitch, who has half the Senate already at home and some may not come back. Flake, Heller, and Corker have no reason to.
Quinerly
@tobie: thanks for posting the roll call. I meant to pull it up last night.
The Dangerman
I agree.
Oh, you didn’t mean a person. My bad. More coffee for this West Coaster.
hueyplong
Tierney seems to be ignoring the “good deal for progressives” that would come from a Trump-Turtle falling out.
rikyrah
No way the Turtle goes for this.
Repatriated
@Quinerly: She was also including the Senate, assumimg the filibuster remained intact.
Lee
I’ve been kicking around a tag to use for when Republicans run for re-election in 2020.
Something that indicates they could have prevented the shit show we are now dealing with.
Something like ‘Where We You When We Needed You’.
That’s too long, maybe BJer’s can come up with something a little more pithy.
dmsilev
Mitch McConnell falls thoroughly into the evil-not-stupid bin. I really doubt he’d take that deal.
David Anderson
@dmsilev:
dmsilev
@Quinerly: A thought: The House GOP treated yesterday’s vote as similar to the endless Obamacare repeal votes in 2013-2016. A message proclaiming their intent, while knowing full well they’d never have to answer for the consequences since it would never become law. Posturing, in other words. Pelosi, being a more serious person, discounted the GOP’s desire for one last posturing gesture.
Repatriated
@dmsilev: He might do it as a “one-time good deal”, though that would be meaningless since the power to do it once implies the power to do it at any time.
dmsilev
@David Anderson: Yeah, that’s the other thing. McConnell has a 51 vote majority to work with right now, and that includes Senator Kyl who I think may have already officially resigned, Senators who have left town for the holiday and might be slow getting back, Senators who don’t want to give up their filibustery privileges, etc. Even if he wanted to nuke the rules, I doubt he could.
Roger Moore
@kindness:
No. We have a new Congress in January, and that new Congress has a Democratic majority in the House. That sharply limits how much legislative damage the Senate can do. They can do a lot of damage by confirming terrible Trump appointees, but the filibuster for those was already gone.
Quinerly
@dmsilev: A Dem Rep said last night that it was “an in your face move” to get at Pelosi.
hueyplong
When push comes to shove, Trump can’t afford to piss off the guy who could deliver an impeachment conviction. If Turtle won’t go for it, all Trump can do is sulk and tweet.
Tell them to fuck off, Dems, so you can have the theater and the result. I
dmsilev
Preznit Numbnuts issues word-like things:
Walls on wheels! Genius1
dmsilev
@Quinerly: Also a very plausible motive.
The Dangerman
@Lee:
“should have never played with 45”
Extra Credit if you can fold in Russian Roul-ettte (let’s see if THAT gets the Moderation hammer) in there someplace.
Humdog
@dmsilev: I think you have it right here. Less crazy Rs who did not agree with the wall voted it for it here, symbolically, to underscore that there truly are no moderate or non crazy House Rs.
OT, anyone know a way to read Eliza Dushku’s Boston Globe op ed without paying? Pretty crappy one cannot get even one article without forking over cash. They didn’t even pay her for the op ed but we have to pay them?
Spanky
And in case you were worried your vacation plans would be ruined by a shutdown:
Of course, if you weren’t going to the Grand Canyon, I guess you’re still screwed.
SRW1
Very clever of Trump to open a distracting skirmish line with Senate Republicans. They sure will be thrilled.
chopper
@dmsilev:
it’s 50-49 right now, as corker has clearly clocked out.
Mike in DC
If the filibuster is abolished, the go to move is to gain power in 2021, pass the top 5 most popular items on the policy agenda, survive the midterms due to base enthusiasm, then tackle the thornier items on the flipside heading into a more favorable presidential election.
MattF
Hmm.
chopper
this shutdown basically ends on 1/3, once pelosi gets the gavel and sends a clean CR to the senate. at that point, given that the numbers are gonna be awful for trump and the GOP on this issue, mcconnell is gonna be on the hot seat. if it’s a choice between making trump happy and keeping his party from eating untold buckets of shit, he’ll pass it on up to trump to deal with.
patrick II
It’s too bad Steve Jobs is dead. I would have loved to see a one hour TV special of Steve and Donald talking technology. Two tech geniuses talking future technical advances would have been so enlightening. Maybe Gates could fill in.
tobie
If Flake and Alexander won’t vote to end the filibuster, and Murkowski is still in town to register a no vote, then the Senate will still need 60 votes to pass the CR with wall funding, which means the CR is dead. Can the Senate turn around and send back to the House the original CR proposal today? That would avert a shutdown.
Spanky
@MattF: I’d pay to watch them zip it up.
Betty Cracker
Looks like McConnell doesn’t have the votes. You make a great point about how burning the filibuster over a dumb wall just weeks before the Democrats take over the House would be disastrous for Republicans in the short term. But FSM help us if they ever regain control of the House — which they almost certainly will someday. The Senate will always be stacked against us thanks to the land-mass representation formula the Founders devised. Simple majority rule would’ve been catastrophic for the past two years and could be again in the future.
STW1
@Betty Cracker:
McConnell doesn’t want to have the votes. Wonder how he persuaded Flake and Alexander to take the blame.
MattF
@Betty Cracker: Wasn’t there some woman who said exactly this… um, recently, in front of Trump, in the Oval Office?
Baud
@Betty Cracker: It’s not like that future Republican Congress wouldn’t always have the nuclear button in its back pocket.
Roger Moore
@Mike in DC:
I think priority #1 when the Democrats retake the Senate and Presidency has to be a new, stronger VRA. That will do more than anything to help them win again the next election.
Baud
@tobie: I think the Senate CR is still in the House.
David Anderson
@Betty Cracker: Disagree — a 51 vote Senate was the relevant Senate for the major GOP agenda items of judges, tax cuts and cutting Medicaid. They were able to get 51 votes for the first two. And failed on the last one.
Fair Economist
If McConnell wanted to nuke the filibuster, he could probably get Democratic support and nuke it in spite of losing some Republicans. That said, he’s not stupid and he’s not going to do it. The filibuster is currently hugely advantageous to Republicans, because they have enough of an advantage in the state gerrymander that a 60 seat Democratic majority is almost impossible with the current politics.
tobie
@Baud: Thanks, that’s clarifying. The shutdown should fall on Paul Ryan, too. I really don’t see any difference between him and Devin Nunes. They’re both craven party hacks who would betray, and have betrayed, their country to advance the GOP. I’m glad Judge Sullivan used the word treason this week.
Fair Economist
@Baud: Properly, we now have a Senate bill and a House bill that are not the same, so we should proceed to a conference committee to work out a compromise.
@tobie:
More than anybody. Trump is a wimp and if Ryan had just allowed the Senate bill to be voted on it would have passed and Trump would have just signed it.
germy
Steeplejack
@Repatriated:
Pelosi said (from the transcript of the December 11 meeting):
Gelfling 545
@Quinerly: I don’t think so. At least not mainly. I think they give Trump just about anything to keep the GOP from being blamed for another shut down.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@germy:
It’s fucking scary how reasonable Raygun sounds compared to Trump.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Fair Economist:
When you say, “current politics”, do you mean the current political climate? The Dems had a Senate majority as recently as 2014.
Mike in DC
@Roger Moore: Election reform, infrastructure, green energy, minimum wage/job guarantee, free college and debt relief could be tier 1. Flipside is M4A, SS boost, immigration reform, corporate reform and criminal justice reform. Probably 2 or 3 more items–tax rebalancing, ENDA, and gun control–would round out a complete policy agenda.
chopper
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
the dems had 60 seats in the senate in 2014?
Steeplejack
@dmsilev:
I think this is the truth of it. Pelosi miscalculated how two-faced the GOP reps are.
Eolirin
@ Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) : They said 60 seat majority. We had that for a few months in 2008. It’s unlikely we’ll have it again.
Betty Cracker
@David Anderson: You don’t think the filibuster rule contained some of the legislative damage that could’ve been wrought under one-party rule? I think the incompetence of the Trump admin gets partial credit for this relatively unproductive session, which is why Trump is always bellowing about Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and tax cuts. But we can’t assume future Republican congresses and presidents would also be incompetent boobs who struggle to pass legislation.
Baud
@Mike in DC: Is that all?
Mrs. D. Ranged in AZ
@Spanky: That quote from Gov. Doucey is laughable. “Arizona knows how to work together.” What he means to say is that the Republicans control this state lock, stock and barrel and they do whatever the hell they want.
jl
News report I heard on way to work says McConnell just proclaimed that he really just doesn’t see how it’s such a big emergency. No need to give up filibuster.
So,let’s if that holds up.
Mandalay
@oldster:
I wondered that as well. Maybe she knew he had the votes in the House all along, and was deliberately goading him into getting them to vote?
While the current situation is a clusterf***, I think that Trump has made things even worse for himself, and the Republican Party, by getting the House to vote to give him his $5 billion. We can look forward to reports on federal workers not getting paid while they show Trump in a golf cart in the sunshine, grinning from ear to ear.
Is Pelosi playing eleventy-dimensional chess, but we are too dumb to realize it?
Baud
@Betty Cracker: Over the long haul, the rule works both ways. Obama’s first two years would have been even more productive if we didn’t have the filibuster.
Eolirin
@Betty Cracker: We’re also not going to have much choice but to nuke it ourselves, if we want to accomplish anything legislatively. McConnell will not let any legislation through if we retake the Senate and White House. There’s no upside to McConnell taking the hit, instead of forcing us to, and he likely doesn’t have the votes, but the filibuster is going to have to die one way or another.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@chopper:
@Eolirin:
Whoops. I confused 60 seat majority with a simple 51 majority.
piratedan
we have to remember while the rest of us are well acquainted with the nuances of insider politics (why else would we be here?) the vast majority of Americans are going to examine this pretty much like this I guess….
Trump wants his wall….
despite telling us that we wouldn’t have to pay for it, now he wants us to pony up for it to the tune of 5 Billion dollars
Pelosi said he doesn’t have the votes for wall
Political gamesmanship ensues
Wall doesn’t get funded
Who is America going to believe won? Pelosi or Trump?
Eolirin
@Mandalay: Honestly, it’s much more likely that they didn’t have the votes until Pelosi made her comments, at which point proving her wrong was enough of a motivating factor to pull some people over. Especially since they know it’s dead in the Senate anyway.
Mike in DC
@Betty Cracker: On the other hand, we’ve already seen that the GOP will use the filibuster to block the progressive agenda at every turn, so keeping the filibuster is essentially accepting that most of the policy we want enacted isn’t going to happen any time in the next 10 to 12 years. And actually passing stuff that’s popular could help keep Dems in power past a midterm.
randy khan
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
And on top of that, some of the states that are reliably red today elected pretty liberal Dems as recently as 20 years ago. We should not assume that the current political demographics of the country will not change.
jl
@Eolirin: Hard to say, really. Too many moving parts. Trump signaled he caved, then he reversed course when racist pundits riled up the base. People like Limbaugh and Ann Coulter. Ryan, a natural flunky on his way out, immediately caved. McConnell, who plans to spend more time ruling over his personal empire of shit, doesn’t see any reason to jump for a mess like Trump right now. At least so far. Let’s see what happens to McConnell’s current stated resolve to do business as usual and tell Trump to get lost.
Eolirin
@piratedan: I have a bigger concern; Trump seems to have crossed a line in terms of his being unhinged. I don’t think he’s going to back down on this now, especially with Russian bots pushing for it, which means if the Senate isn’t willing to override his veto, it’s quite possible dems will be left with two options, give him everything he wants, and try to salvage some of that by getting things attached to wall funding that can get through the senate but are clear wins, or let the government stay shut down until the republicans in the Senate give in and allow an override.
Any scenario that doesn’t involve an override will be spun as a Trump win. And any capitulation on the part of dems for wall funding, even if tied to important concessions, will be spun, with the help of Russian trolls, as a huge abandonment of immigrants.
tobie
@Eolirin: Exactly. The House passed a symbolic vote yesterday to get back at Nancy. Unfortunately the GOP is now pushing the line that Dems own the shutdown. I don’t know how supine the media is being to its favorite rightwing sources. I assume they’re being predictably submissive.
realbtl
According to SHS-spit- the President* will stay in DC if there is a shutdown. Odds anyone?
Baud
@randy khan: California was a 50-50 state in the 90s.
germy
Baud
@tobie: They always push that line and it always fails.
Mandalay
@Eolirin: We’ll never know, but I don’t think Pelosi’s comments swayed the votes.
Instead, it was Limbaugh and Coulter publicly stating that Trump was dead meat if he caved that changed everything. After that Trump contacted Limbaugh to say he would shut down the government if he didn’t get his funding.
Many House Republicans may loathe Trump as much as us, but they know which side their bread is (currently) buttered on, so they went along with the madness.
Quinerly
@MattF: I was out west for the last shut down. Had planned two days at Carlsbad Caverns. Got the first day in but closed down the second day. Spent a delightful day in town and ended up at wonderful little microbrewery with interesting locals. ?. Cruised over to White Sands and was the second car in when it reopened. Poco was wowed by the pristine sand. There had been a windstorm over the weekend while the park was closed. It was my second winter visit over the years there but it was truly amazing to enter to a pristine palette. The roads weren’t even plowed. Maybe 4 cars over 4 hrs. Thank you for bringing back that memory. Totally had forgotten about that shut down.
Eolirin
@tobie: Trump is undercutting that message by demanding McConnell kill the filibuster and pass the wall funding.
brantl
Never underestimate the willfull stupidity, and cupidity, of Mitch McConnell.
Steeplejack
@Humdog:
I went to this Boston Globe link, got the full op-ed and a notice that I have one free article left. Maybe you have Globe cookies (from previous visits) that could be deleted?
. . . Eh, what the hell. I used my Google superpowers to find the entire text at this Eliza Dushku fan blog.
VOR
@Mandalay: I think Pelosi was right – at that point in time. But pointing it out was the equivalent of taunting them so the Republicans decided to come together to perform a really stupid gesture. They showed her!
germy
Eolirin
@Mandalay: And why is this suddenly such a big deal to Limbaugh and Coulter, when it hasn’t been every other time this has failed to go through? Pelosi made their side look weak in a way that was actually gaining traction. They can’t have that.
germy
@Steeplejack: A quick side question for you: Years ago, during your time as a reporter, did you ever envision “cookies” and “google” entering the lexicon of journalistic terms?
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@tobie:
How could Dems possibly own a shutdown? They don’t have a majority! This is all on the GOP and Trump because they’re the ones driving this crazy train.
I understand you’re not saying that, rather the media might go along with this line. I just can’t groak why the media would go along with this when it can clearly be fact checked by anybody.
Betty Cracker
@Baud: That’s what I was thinking — that it will cut both ways and not invariably redound to Democrats’ favor, especially in a legislative body with a structure that puts blue states behind the eight-ball. That’s also true with the status quo. I don’t think McConnell will be dumb enough to nuke it now and take the hit, but who knows.
different-church-lady
TRUMP: I WANT TO KILL ALL PUPPIES!
DEMS: Uh, killing puppies is wrong.
TRUMP: HERE’S A BUNCH OF OTHER STUFF YOU WANT, MAYBE.
DEMS: Killing puppies is still wrong.
ANDERSON: Puppies are overrated. I think we should trust the guy.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@randy khan:
I hope it changes soon, because the US Federal government (and subsequently the states) can’t function without a sane Senate.
JPL
@Betty Cracker: I’m not a Tim Ryan fan, but he airs your sentiments.
https://twitter.com/briantylercohen/status/1075959276349349888
You might consider putting it on a separate post later.
schrodingers_cat
@different-church-lady: I just hate the breathless way in which the media peeps are covering this shutdown nonsense. They are like a fucking propaganda arm for Rs.
chopper
@realbtl:
bullshit he will.
trollhattan
@STW1:
Family members, shackles, basement.
The Dangerman
@realbtl:
Can he sneak out the back way? Else, zero.
SiubhanDuinne
@Quinerly:
I remember your posting about that at the time. Makes me want to visit on my next driving trip west.
trollhattan
@realbtl:
What, golf the Tidal Basin? Magic 8-Ball says “Unlikely.”
swiftfox
@Spanky: @Eolirin: all the parks will be open; the law enforcement rangers will be on duty as essential personnel. The interpreters, visitor’s centers, and the rest of the support staff will be on furlough. What Ducey does is on the margins.
Eolirin
@ Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) : It’s absolutely possible for the minority party to own a shutdown, as long as the filibuster exists. When we briefly shutdown the government over DACA, it wasn’t inaccurate to place the blame for that on Democrats. But it’s only because the majority is willingly ceding it’s power by allowing the filibuster to exist. And that is why you absolutely must not, at any point in these proceedings, make it clear that the Senate majority has the ability to take away that filibuster. So of course, Trump is doing exactly that.
PeakVT
There should not be a supermajority requirement for basic legislation.
Nuke the filibuster.
Spanky
@schrodingers_cat:
Fox … Sinclair … NYT …
JPL
@The Dangerman: Believe me Melania will not stay there. The government will fund her vacation while TSA employees work with out pay.
i guess we’ll have to pay for Jared and Ivanka’s trip too.
CarolDuhart2
@Eolirin: Limbaugh and Coulter are looking at what we are looking at for the next two years: Gridlock. After 1/3 there is going to be no funding for the wall at all, and likely will be never again…if A Democrat win the White House in 20, add another 4 years to the 2. By then, we will have accepted thousands of asylum seekers, and America will be browner than ever. And we are going to reverse all of Trump’s cruelty with a brand new Immigration Policy. So we are seeing their panic.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@schrodingers_cat:
It’s partly because the people who work in these news organizations, the reporters, are very privileged, middle to upper class people from many of the same J-Schools. None of this is likely to affect them, so they’re entertained by it, on some level.
different-church-lady
@patrick II: “I would ask for wheel. We need wheel.”
Mandalay
@Eolirin:
I don’t know about Limbaugh, but there is nothing sudden about Coulter dumping on Trump over the wall – she has been doing it consistently for the past 2 years. Coulter views Trump as a useful idiot who is just a vehicle for implementing her racist agenda. Trump is right to be scared of her because she is ten times the honey badger that he is, and she truly doesn’t give a flying fuck about who she pisses off, Trump included.
And there is extra focus right now only because if this attempt fails Trump will never get the $5 billion.
Eolirin
@CarolDuhart2: I can possibly see Coulter having that opinion, but Limbaugh isn’t *that* stupid. 5 billion for a border wall that probably can’t even be built is a purely symbolic gesture. They’re not going to bat for something that’ll actually affect change, like gutting the ACA. So why are they willing to make this a hill worth dying over, if it’s not about the appearance of dominance?
different-church-lady
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: And the rest of it is because drama draws more eyeballs/clicks than straight reporting does.
SFAW
To paraphrase Mencken (or whoever really said it first), no one ever lost money overestimating the vileness/venality of Mitch McConnell.
I understand the ramifications of nuking the filibuster for this, and I’m not disputing the thought process, but I think Turtle is willing to take the chance that they can hold onto a Senate majority for the rest of his unnatural life.
JPL
BREAKING: Supreme Court: Justice Ginsburg has cancerous growths removed from lung.
fkfkfkfkfkfkfkkfkfkfkfkfkfkfkfkfkkfkfkfkfkfkkffk
according to AP
Kelly
26 states, a majority of the Senate represent 17% of the population. It would require an unlikely amount of fair mindedness to fix this in the constitution. Moar states? Break up big blue states to make more little blue states? Any allocation based on an inflexible map is gonna be a problem. Make every city or county with a population greater than Wyoming a state? That’d still leave a bunch of very red rump states behind. Take Portland out of Oregon and what’s left is deep red.
Quinerly
@SiubhanDuinne: I’m so homesick for my driving trip. It’s like I’m mourning and can’t snap out of it. Sounds selfish but I do two solid months of trip planning and research and love that almost as much as the trip. It’s nice just to meet strangers and have small day to day interactions. No expectations or disappointments of/in strangers…No politics, no worries… Small talk and move on. Just can’t get the timing to work this year. I think it plays into my mood and this creeping minor depression. I’m on Trump overload. He’s everywhere. Can’t escape him.
Quinerly
Fuck. RBG has had lung cancer surgery.
jl
@Eolirin: Coulter and Limbaugh make money off of catering the hardest core racist crazy Trump base. The hardest core racist crazy Trump base is detached from reality. They don’t have the interest or the mental capacity to understand anything about the reality of immigration, documented or otherwise, border security, or Wall.
They’ve been been duped for 2 years on dishonest Trumpster propaganda about what is going on with Wall, the existing Wall that Trump claims he built (he didn’t, it’s all been repairs on existing Wall), the Savior Wall to come that George Soros and the evil Democrats are preventing from being built and that is needed to save the country from complete dissolution.
Coulter and Limbaugh need to keep those loons happy.
Schlemazel
JFC!
Ruth Bader Ginsburg just had two cancerous growths removed from her lungs
God must hate us all so much
SiubhanDuinne
RBG had two malignant nodules removed from her lung. No sign of any other malignancy. Resting comfortably.
RECOVER SOON AND FULLY, NOTORIOUS!!
But oh shit.
germy
Baud
@JPL:
Official statement.
Eolirin
@Kelly: It would be easier and less disruptive to annex Canada and Mexico.
Baud
@Schlemazel:
For some of us, with good reason.
Baud
As a reminder, it was wrong for us to bring up the Supreme Court as an issue in 2016.
Frankensteinbeck
It sounds like RBG and the rest of us got incredibly lucky when she broke those ribs. It let them discover the cancer early.
I had a heart attack there for a second, myself.
Ksmiami
@Lee: the bread song – cause you left me just when I needed you most
JPL
@Baud: Thanks Baud for the additional information and hopefully she is okay. Maybe we can keep the senate closed until 2020. That would make me feel better.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: WALL STREET SPEECHES!
gotta have priorities
Baud
@Frankensteinbeck:
Maybe God loves us?
Terry chay
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: he meant a 60 seat supermajority not a bare majority. The last time that happened was late 2009 with al Frankenstein being seated.
The electoral math doesn’t favor the democrats reaching 60 again, but I don’t think that takes into account what will happen post crash. That event clouds all visibility.l as it will probably touch off a political realignment after the destruction of the Republican Party.
Eolirin
@jl: Yeah, and those loons are particularly sensitive to appearances of weakness, especially when it’s a woman (or minority) that’s expressing dominance. Pelosi making Trump look weak and stupid is going to make them *very* angry, which is just going to make the situation more urgent to them. If there wasn’t a confrontation over this, and it just simply didn’t happen, there’d be less push back over it. The second it was a fight though, it becomes much more of an imperative to not look like a loser.
rikyrah
Trump Becomes More Dangerous as a Day of Reckoning Draws Near
by Nancy LeTourneau
December 21, 2018
……………..
Additional attempts to obstruct justice
The administration is also shoring up its efforts to either infect the Mueller investigation or stop it in its tracks. If not for all of the other bombshells dropping this week, the story about acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker’s move would have gotten a lot more attention.
zhena gogolia
@JPL:
Why didn’t she retire when Obama was president?????
Now I’ll get flamed.
Betty Cracker
I can’t even fucking contemplate the possibility of RBG leaving the SCOTUS and being replaced by someone chosen by Donald Motherfucking Trump, who once reportedly salivated over that possibility and said maybe he’d get to replace Sotomayor too since she has diabetes. It’s just too hideous a scenario to bear thinking of, goddamn it!
Eolirin
@rikyrah: If this opens Whitaker up to congressional investigation once democrats have the house again, it may end up doing more harm to them than good.
Terry chay
@Mandalay: at the time Trumo didn’t have the votes. That changed after the conference as the modern republican is what liberals don’t want.
In the end, it is shooting yourself in the foot because the suburbs aren’t buying Trump saying this shutdown is the democrats fault, and the suburbs now represent almost half of America. Without the suburbs, the Republican Party is less than a third party. Rural America was on decline, had a small growth/reprieve under Obama, and now are being wiped out under Trump. They reoelresent 14% of the economy and single digit percent of the GDP and both are declining rapidly in just two years.
Schlemazel
@zhena gogolia:
YEAH! She could have been replaced by Garland Merrick. I means what could have gone wrong?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@zhena gogolia: No fire from me, but she would have had to retire before the 2014 midterms to get a replacement past the McConnell blockade, and I don’t remember anyone calling for her to do so then.
Rylan Futch
Trade wall for Obamacare reinstatement……every single bit of it. Not that the dems are smart enuff to see this.
Eolirin
@Rylan Futch: What makes you think Ryan or McConnell would go for that?
Mnemosyne
@SiubhanDuinne:
It’s freaky BUT it sounds like they caught it extremely early by chance and were able to remove it.
We had a scare a few months ago when my mother-in-law’s dentist spotted a suspicious abscess during a routine exam that turned out to be cancerous. Again, though, because it was caught very early during a routine exam, they were able to excuse the whole thing with no need for radiation or chemotherapy. Phew!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Rylan Futch: if only Nancy Pelosi were smart enough to post things on a blog! then Mitch McConnell would cease to exist!
jl
@Terry chay: I think almost certain to be a recession before 2020 now. We may be on verge of it. That is going to blow Trump out of the water, politically. What has been missed I think is that the recovery of the real economy (versus financial industry) has been exceedingly weak, in terms of two important measures, real per capita income, and the residential housing market. The effects of the very weak recovery of the housing market is there for all to see, with a shortage of supply, and spreading housing shortages throughout the country, and that includes urban areas in very red states. The dip in housing supply below trend since the end of the Great Recession dwarfs the minor over supply that occurred during the bubble years.
There will be some Fed blaming for the coming recession, but I don’t see how that is justified. The extraordinarily weak recovery in terms of personal income available to the mass of the population, hasn’t been able to support a prudent level of real interest rates, the most macroeconomists think the economy needs to manage the economy, especially in the face of GOP control of government that will prevent adequate fiscal response. The GOP will spend like mad to give rich people money at the peak of the boom, but will block anything for normal people in a downturn.
The residential market has been stuttering, and the vast amounts of speculative global capital that was financing overpriced housing pulled out earlier this year.
One reason for Trump’s panic might be he sees his precious and artificial Trump stock market boom disappearing, and maybe his business buddies are running around with their hair on fire about now worried about the onset of the next recession. And more economic news today that business investment went into an even bigger reverse than expected over last quarter. So, GOP’s public rationale for the tax cut heist just got another hole blown into it.
And Trump is an ignorant dope who has appointed unqualified people (except for the puzzling nomination of Powell at the Fed), and they have no clue what to do.
JPL
@Betty Cracker: Then don’t go there. Because of a friend’s illness, I did learn that you can remove nodules on your liver and elsewhere. Previously I thought that if cancer had spread to your liver, there was little they could do, but it has to actually penetrate. Since the liver can regenerate, as long it’s not beyond the first layer you might be okay.
btw I’m giving myself a pep talk more than you.
Rylan Futch
@zhena gogolia: Actually you are exactly right about that! She is selfish and not very nice. I spotted a recent article about her clerk hiring habits and damned if Clarence Thomas doesn’t have a more diverse crew than she does! She rarely if ever hires black clerks. If she dies then her legacy will be that she held on too long and let Trump replace her. Maybe that’s what she really wants?
Brachiator
So, how could the GOP use the Nuclear option and then de-nuke in 2019?
I don’t trust them about anything, and I expect that they will continually bend the rules in order to give themselves whatever advantage they can muster.
Mnemosyne
@Rylan Futch:
Oh, look. It’s the boy who hates RGB posting under a new fake nym.
Now tell us how mass shootings are no big deal and there’s no need for gun control, you blood-gargling ghoul.
Schlemazel
@Rylan Futch:
Trade $5B for:
DACA
Mueller protection
let the bastard sign that bill!
Rylan Futch
@Eolirin: They might not go for it but it’s at least an offer on the table. Dems can always say they made an offer and were turned down. Don’t forget that trump sees cutting deals as asking for more and more and more and more. You deal with people like that by doing the same to them. As someone up top said this wall if piffle. Obamacare reinstatement would be huge. I’m not sure the dems know how to propose deals any more.
Martin
@dmsilev:
Oh, I don’t think it was even that. I don’t think Pelosi cared one way or another if Trump could get it done in the House – Chuck assured her it wouldn’t get through the Senate. Or, I should say – a bill that could get through the Senate wouldn’t get through the House that included wall funding. That was her challenge to him – stop blaming Democrats and fucking do it yourself. And that’s basically what everyone has been signaling – a House bill that included wall funding is DOA in the Senate. If they want to take the nuclear option to get it done, so be it. Democrats lose no power on that front because they control the House starting 1/4/19. Dems are good odds to win the Senate in 2020.
Rylan Futch
@Schlemazel: There ya go! $5B for a wall is peanuts. Let him turn down that deal.
Eolirin
@Brachiator: McConnell doesn’t currently have the votes needed to nuke the filibuster, and he won’t have any possibility of having them until Pelosi is running the house. He can’t nuke it now, and there’s no point in nuking it later.
Schlemazel
@Rylan Futch:
You forgot the “/s” at the end
People could mistake that load of shit as serious comment
rikyrah
The Demise of the ‘Young Guns’
by Nancy LeTourneau
December 21, 2018
Less that two months before the 2010 midterms election swept Republicans into a majority in the House, three GOP upstarts published a book titled, Young Guns: A New Generation of Conservative Leaders. You might remember that the three white guys who assumed they were about take over leadership of their party were Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan, and Kevin McCarthy.
Each of those men assigned themselves a role as the vanguards of a new Republican Party. Cantor was the leader, Ryan the policy wonk, and McCarthy the strategist. Their so-called “blueprint” was nothing more than the warmed-over policies that generations of Republicans have embraced: tax cuts and deficit reduction via gutting of the social safety net. As Politico noted at the time of the book’s release, it was “long on platitudes and personality but short on policy details.”
Frankly, it was a bit audacious—even for Republicans—to anoint themselves the “new generation of conservative leaders.” But in the midst of the red wave of 2010, those were heady days for the GOP. Even so, the audacity of the young guns was relatively short-lived.
different-church-lady
@Rylan Futch: Everyone remembers, “My offer is this: nothing.” Nobody remembers, “Not even the fee for the gaming license, which I would appreciate if you would put up personally.”
Elizabelle
Wow, so it turns out those cracked ribs were actually luck in a rather painful form. Recover and no more cancer, RBG.
Further, I think she should have retired too. In 2015. Scalia did not die until February 2016. We will never know, but I am pretty sure Obama could have gotten a justice through then.
Mostly, I want McConnell in prison or dead (for treason) for all the Senatorial mayhem he has caused.
Rylan Futch
@Mnemosyne: That’s my real name you dipshit. Why don’t YOU stop hiding? And refute what I said. Why didn’t she step down and let O replace her, huh? If she’s such a liberal lion then she should understand legacy and the future of the court enough to know that she’s old and there was a chance to put a much younger person on the court.
Rylan Futch
@different-church-lady: I remember that! Great movie. Unfortunately we can’t enforce those offers the way Michael could!
Eolirin
@Rylan Futch: So, I’m gonna assume you’re just a troll. If not, please educate yourself on the process of how legislation is brought up to a floor vote.
RAVEN
@Rylan Futch: What the fuck are you whining abut it now for?
Steeplejack
@germy:
Inorite?! You hit a nerve. I have a huge collection of Abe Simpson onion-belt stories about the ways the whole field has changed, and I have to monitor people for eyeball-glazing and edit myself when I trot them out.
And, of course, one of the biggest changes—in all area of life, not just journalism—is the rise of the Internet and all that it enables. The thing that I notice on a daily basis is how much easier it is now to do basic fact-checking type research. Can’t remember how to spell Khashoggi’s name, or what his first name is? You can start typing in your browser’s search box and autofill will get you the answer (or a link) within three or four characters. You’re reading a story and you think there’s something off about “Metrie, LA”? Quick check and you find that it’s “Metairie, LA.”
When I worked at a mid-sized Southern daily in the ’70s, all of that would have required a visit to the mini-reference library that took up a small but crowded area beside the “morgue”—the place where two or three women worked all day cutting up the previous day’s paper and putting the articles and photos into files for future reference. The library had atlases, encyclopedias, almanacs, phone directories for numerous cities, reverse phone directories, all sorts of reference books.
And spelling! There was a stand with a worn, well-used copy of the gigantic Webster’s Third New International Dictionary (similar to this), to which everyone had recourse all too often. “Spell-check”? What’s that?
Okay, my eyes are glazing over. But, yeah, the changes we’ve seen. Even the most trivial Google dive is light-years ahead of what you could accomplish back then. And some things you couldn’t even think of doing—just not possible with the existing resources.
Amir Khalid
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
The same way 9/11 happened on Bill Clinton’s watch.
jl
Okee-dokey, GOP Senators tell Trump to forget about trashing filibuster for Wall. As a few other commenters said or suggested, I think McConnell knows that if he trashes the filibuster for the unpopular Trump Wall nonsense, and the Dems take the Senate in 2020, the filibuster isn’t coming back. If he keeps it, he has a much better chance of using it when the Senate is in enemy hands. I think that depends on how wiped out the GOP gets after the Trumpsters goof up the recovery from the upcoming recession.
Let’s see if the GOP Senate holds up its resolve. I guess the corporate hacks in the media and the GOP will try to blame the Dems for not always giving in to lose-lose deals with a pathological liar who acts on whims, and is constitutionally incapable of keeping deals.
OTOH, if this plays out as mainly a fight between Trumpsters and Senate GOP, the ‘blame the Dems’ story line has competition with a much more dramatic, and in this case, accurate, story. The media will always go for maximum drama. If the corporate media hacks have to spin out such elaborate BS scenarios to blame the Dems, that even people like Tim Ryan break out in hysterical laughter, then that will be a problem for the ‘blame the Dems’ story line.
GOP Sens To Trump: We Won’t Trash Legislative Filibuster To Pass Wall Funds
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/gop-sens-to-trump-we-wont-trash-legislative-filibuster-to-pass-wall-funds
schrodingers_cat
Thanks T voters and JS voters for our waking nightmare.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@jl:
according to two friends who are economic analysts for banks we are six months into a recession now.
PJ
@Steeplejack: It’s true that research of many things has become close to instantaneous. But you point out that, behind the morgue, there was a staff who knew not just what files articles and photos were put into, but why they were put into those files. Google doesn’t know they why, because it doesn’t know anything. It just links things together, which is what makes it so easy for disinformation to proliferate.
The other thing about doing research online is that, while it is much easier to find things you know you are looking for, it is more difficult to find things you don’t know you are looking for, but which might be side by side if you were doing research in, say, the stacks, or in a digest, where people had painstakingly assembled underlying data according to useful categories. You can still do research that way, of course, which is why it’s good to have the best of both worlds, but people tend to forget it (or never learned it in the first place), because convenience is just the best thing ever.
schrodingers_cat
@Schlemazel: I addressed this in the last thread.
Gutting legal immigration in the present and future is not an acceptable deal
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@jl:
Worth noting Democrat/Lib is Right Wing double speak for “the conservative I disagree with”
Jinchi
Honest question:
If Trump shuts down the government, does that mean ICE agents don’t get paid over Christmas?
Cheryl Rofer
schrodingers_cat
@Jinchi: I don’t know about ICE but USCIS will continue to open, because its largely funded through fees for various visas and such.
Hob
By the way, here is the article that I’m guessing is what Rylan Futch was referring to about Supreme Court clerks. Not surprisingly it offers no support for Rylan’s claim that Ginsburg is “not nice”, and doesn’t in any way single her out for lack of diversity in clerks, which the article makes clear is a systemic problem. Anyway, it’s an interesting read and it would’ve been nice of Rylan, if he really is a legit commenter, to have linked to it.
jl
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: That may well be true. Hard to time these things as they unfold. That would time nicely with when global capital made gave up on making gobs of money on speculative over priced high end residential properties in the US and pulled out of US in favor of nutso real estate deals in various places around the world. I’ll have to check the global capital real estate investment market news and sucker bait flyers on what the new hot bonanza opportunity is. Maybe rare earth mining plays, or agricultural land in Africa that will boom due to China’s Belt and Road, or whatever it’s called. That would also time nicely with when big investment funds decided they couldn’t make money on the ‘own-to-rent’ single family market in the US.
US residential market, of every kind, has been stutter stepping ever since end of Great Recession, and then just stopped trying, it fell down and couldn’t get up. Didn’t have a clapper.
The entire world economy is completely screwed up, IMHO. I think mainly due to to way too much money in the hands of very rich people and sovereign funds and they have no clue what to do with it.
Frankensteinbeck
@jl:
Reminder: There was probably no more boring story than Hillary Clinton’s Emails, but the national press harped on it relentlessly for at least a year. Still, I think the GOP are screwed on this shutdown. The population is too polarized and the narrative is set.
@Jinchi:
Yes.
Hob
@schrodingers_cat: That’s all true but even if the proposed policy hadn’t been terrible, “the orange man does not keep his word” would be reason enough to say no. I mean, I don’t see how it’s possible for legislators to make any kind of deal on immigration with a person who clearly thinks the executive branch can unilaterally do whatever it wants on immigration.
jl
@Frankensteinbeck: I do agree that the majority of the public has correctly decided that Trump Wall is BS and that will play an important role. Any narrative that makes that look like an important goal will be unpopular. The corporate media will be forced to pay attention to that fact, sooner or later, through audience reaction to how they pitch their news stories. Since the corporate media’s highest and only goal is always be profiting, always be getting audience share.
StringOnAStick
@jl: I agree with most of your points,but there are places in the US where the US residential market has been very hot, Denver being one of them. For the first time in several years, properties in the sub $700k market here are sitting for a bit, a big change from people buying things based on video and a local realtor as the family hadn’t moved here yet. Existing residential listings are up 19% here, and the housing shortage is real. So is the serious problem with affordability.
I recall a patient telling me 5 years ago that Denver is the new Silicon Valley. At the time I could see his point but I hoped it wasn’t true. Turns out, it’s true. The many years of 8-10% annual appreciation are finally slowing a bit. Maybe the slowing that is showing up here in what was the hottest area for quite awhile is a recession indication as well.
BTW, totally agree with your point on the sovereign wealth funds; all that money floating around, looking to make more money.
Uncle Cosmo
@Rylan Futch: Fuck off & die, troll. Better yet, skip the preliminaries & just drop dead. (NB if that’s your “real name” you are overdue to drop dead of utter embarrassment anyway.)
West of the Rockies
@Cheryl Rofer:
Boom.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@jl:
This is good news for Anarcho-Syndicalism!
jl
@StringOnAStick: All I can say is go look at the business reporting on real estate. So far, the investment money that was behind the very poor lousy residential supply response in this recovery is not interested in what it considers to be the puny returns to building residential housing of any kind for middle, working classes and poor. It wanted big returns on very high end housing, not interested in anything else.
I admit I haven’t gone looked at the news over the last month. At any rate, a hot market that is based on rising prices for an inadequate existing housing stock that most people cannot afford doesn’t make for a popular or sustainable economic expansion. We’ll see what happens.
Edit: I’ve been reading plaintive speculation by real estate analysts that maybe after the luxury market is saturated the money will be interested in building something for not rich people. But that never happened, the big money was not interested in that.
janesays
@kindness: What damage could they do without a filibuster after January 3rd that they can’t already do? None of their wacky legislation would get through a Democratic House, and as far as appointments go, the filibuster has already been killed.
Brachiator
@jl:
No one can predict this, no matter how “certain” you are.
I recently heard a relatively level-headed economist note that the financial signs look good despite the volatility of the stock market. This is not necessarily gospel, but people who insist that a recession is on the way need to bring something other than their gut feeling. And I don’t say this out of any love for Trump, or any belief in his competence or that of any of his chief advisors.
I don’t think a recession would do it. He would lie about any responsibility and his base will never desert him, no matter how much they suffer for his stupidity.
jl
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: Baud 2020!!! Only Baud2020! can screw things up even more.
janesays
@JPL: But it would have been a meaningless vote two weeks ago as well when Nancy said he didn’t have the House votes then. Nothing has changed – the filibuster was always going to stop this thing from getting through the Senate. I think she miscalled that one. It’s probably good that Cheetolini didn’t immediately call her bluff at the time she said he didn’t have the House votes, because she would have lost that one. The GOP doesn’t vote against Trump. Ever.
jl
@Brachiator: ” relatively level-headed economist ” are a dime a dozen. Do you remember who said this?
Anyway, I made my case, people can read and make up their own minds. We;ll see what happens. I could be wrong. Maybe Trump will decide to end his trade war, and that will keep the recovery wheezing along to make 2020.
dfferent-church-lady
@Frankensteinbeck:
That’s only if you report it straight. If you report it as a bitchy woman getting the shit kicked out of her, it’s catnip.
different-church-lady
@Frankensteinbeck:
That’s only if you report it straight. If you report it as a bitchy woman getting the shit kicked out of her, it’s catnip.
jl
Can BJ blog sue Trump for stealing one of its biggest promotional features? If Cole can collect some damages this blog might really pay for itself. I assume Cole trademarked the rotating headers, him being a good businessperson.
Edit: if the current Trump Decompensation Event continues, it will be difficult to get the spotlight off his complete lunacy and incompetence, even if the corporate media would like to.
” Pres. Trump says “the wall will pay for itself on a monthly basis.”
https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/1076181471608492033
NJDave
@The Dangerman: How about, “Why didn’t you stand?” It’s a bit ambiguous so it could be fleshed out with why didn’t you stand against Trump, against Russian interference, against corruption, etc. It’s also accusatory implying the need for a response. It also suggests weakness.
different-church-lady
@jl: He’s selling subscriptions now?
different-church-lady
@Lee: “What the fuck were you thinking?”
Immanentize
Has anyone mentioned that there are not 50 votes to change the rules right now in Washington?
PJ
@Lee: @different-church-lady: “How much did you get for your soul, or did you never have one?”
jl
@Immanentize: None of the Senate GOPers who skipped town are coming back? If so, thanks for info. That would explain the GOP Senate’s stand, it is empty and they can’t do anything anyway. Would make sense.
Mnemosyne
@Rylan Futch:
Wow. If that’s your real name, your parents must have hated you from the moment you were born.
Explain how the Democrats got a new justice through the Senate once they lost their filibuster-proof majority in 2010. Step by step.
tam1MI
I see that, “But these three cherry-picked sentences from a conversation held over a month ago” is the new ” But her e-mails”.
chopper
@Immanentize:
there aren’t even 50 senators in washington right now. they all went home after passing the clean CR.
seriously, trump didn’t even coordinate this strategy. he waited until all the senate went home for vacation to throw a tantrum, blow the whole thing up and demand a do-over. now mcconnell has to convince all these guys to book a flight back to DC just to save trump from beclowning himself.
chopper
@Rylan Futch:
bullshit, that’s a harry potter character, i know it.
Brachiator
@jl:
Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics. Previously, he would often appear on public radio station KPCC talking about the California economy and real estate market. He appears to be branching out more and talking about the national economy.
I don’t think that Trump is smart enough to end his stupid trade war. But the economy will likely sputter along with strong corporate profits and stagnant real wages.
We will also see another test of the impact of GOP tax reform this tax filing season. Should be interesting.
Gin & Tonic
@chopper: Because it’s a slow day here, I googled that name, and came up with a Mormon from Monroe, Louisiana, who won some kind of a church award at age 15 back in 1984. Rylan now appears to live in NC, at which point I got tired of stalking.
Kent
All Nancy Pelosi has to do is say that they won’t conference on any bill from the Senate that doesn’t have at least 60 votes.
Mitch can approve all the judges he wants but can’t get a single piece of legislation through Congress without the House.
Besides, Republicans are traditionally much more obstructionist than Democrats. They will NEVER give up their ability to obstruct legislation in the future next time Dems take control. Especially for this trivial of an issue.
Steeplejack
@PJ:
True. “Basic fact-checking” is just one part of the picture.
J R in WV
@Lee:
maybe:
jl
@Brachiator: Thanks. He is a fairly good forecaster, though I have some significant disagreements with him about best way to read the tea leaves.. I’ll go check on what he is saying.
I think we are in a new pattern of recessions, since 2001, where financial markets tend to follow events in real markets.
OK, that is an assumption that I am making about best way to monitor economy these days.
So, a disclaimer no one should construe my speculations on the economy as any kind of investment advice.
But, I have many email-beers to bet Brachiator that we are in a recession before 2020, nevertheless. With stakes like that, how can B not take the bet?
J R in WV
@chopper:
The GOP wins 49-49 with Dence as a tie-breaker.
chopper
@Gin & Tonic:
it’s a harry potter name. he was roommates with Cuthbert Wobbleflott in Hufflepuff house. this is some bullshit right here.
chopper
@J R in WV:
i was wrong, corker is back in town. dunno why he’s so interested in saving trump’s bacon, but there you go.
i’m imagining all these GOP senators turning around and coming back to DC just to vote on a bill they know is DOA, all so trump can try and fail to pin this shutdown on someone else.
Another Scott
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: The local single-family home market seemed to dry up around here around 6 months ago. Houses that would be sold in a week or so are now sitting on the market for months and months.
But I wonder if those earlier sales were mostly driven by people hoping to flip them quickly, or hoping to turn them into AirBnB places. Both avenues to get rich quickly seem to have dried up.
I don’t think we’re in a recession yet, and the Index of Leading Economic Indicators hasn’t pointed to one yet, either. But it’s easy to see that the economy is nervous and unless Donnie backs down on things like the steel and aluminum tariffs and all the rest, then the economy is going to have severe headwinds next year.
Cheers,
Scott.
J R in WV
@Eolirin:
They intend to steal most of that $5 billion — and if they can’t have the whole pot, their theft will be more noticeable.
Gin & Tonic
@chopper: OK, if you say so. Never read those books nor watched any of the movies. But it also seems like it was/is a legit name for at least one USian.
Brachiator
@jl:
Ha! No problem.
As you say, we will see what happens.
Unfortunately, even if Trump craters the economy, his core supporters will continue to cling to him. It is strange and sad. I’ve seen conservatives who previously showed sparks of common sense jump through all kinds of mental hoops to rationalize his dumbest actions. He struck a nerve and feeds some essential need in these people. They can’t quit him. I am not sure what it would take to shake them loose.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Kelly: That’s an exaggeration – 4 of Oregon’s congressional districts are represented by Democrats. (As you know) we don’t all live in Portland.
Raven Onthill
There seems no simple way this can end. Maybe the Senate Democrats give in. Maybe Trump decides enough is enough. Other than that, this could drag on for years.
J R in WV
@Rylan Futch:
Wyrm-troll — so bad, just a few words was enough to see the sickness!
Go away, don’t come another day!!
jl
@Brachiator: OK, we’ll see. As long as we can lick them come election time, I don’t have much interest in what the hard core Trump base thinks.
Looking at Thornberg’s economic blog at Beacon website, he seems to be betting that GDP growth will be somewhat stronger than most forecasters, based on growth estimates from income side being much stronger than from product side. Particularly, history of upward revisions of GDP stats based in growth in income accounts. And a commenter above is correct to mention leading indicators, which makes onset of an official recession doubtful for next 6 months to a year. But that leaves plenty of time for one before 2020, which is my main bet.
OTOH, don’t need to wait for an official NBER dating of a recession for Trump and GOP to get hurt politically by slowing income growth.
I’m glad that we all can agree that we’ll all see eventually how things play out.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Another Scott:
They both cited the housing market probably because their banks were involved in loans to flip houses. But I am wondering if the tight labor market and boomers retiring masks a lot of stuff.
J R in WV
@jl:
It looks to me like Baud 2020!!! is three times more dynamic and exciting than Baud2020! could ever be?!?!
;-)
Kent
It will end in a hurry when TSA employees stop showing up to work for no pay and airport travel comes to a halt during holiday travel season.
I would not be surprised if we don’t start seeing massive “sick-outs” at airports around the country. Trump is going to demand they work for no pay when he is on his 16-day golf vacation? Bring that one on.
Bill Arnold
Does anyone have a link to the continuing appropriations (+ more border security?) bill that the House of R passed? In particular, does it mention a wall at all or is it just more money to homeland security?
(I searched briefly but found zero texts.)
Another Scott
@Bill Arnold: GovExec story about the bill and the vote.
The actual bill (59 page .PDF).
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
chopper
@Gin & Tonic:
i was kidding. tho Cuthbert Wobbleflott does sound like it’s right out of the series, don’t it.
Bill Arnold
@Another Scott:
Thanks!
So all I see is this, on page 2:
And of course, no “wall” in that bill.
So slush fund it is, and calling it funding for “The Wall” is a lie, or at least deeply misleading.
nasruddin
The incoming senate is 54-~46 I think, and electoral trends look like this is near equilibrium for a while, with a large number (~30) of aging, depopulating states
maintaining their 2 Republican senators indefinitely. Until we wise up and change this system, which looks like never.
Therefore Mitch has 0 chance of this ever being a problem for him in his professional lifetime.
Ruckus
@Another Scott:
Never forget that individual 1 made whatever pitence he has by buying during a downturn. Which is not to say that there was ever any forethought on his part and he often invested at the worst investment times. But he’s creating a wealthy buyers market – known to most of us as a recession. Don’t assume that he’s doing this out of total ignorance/stupidity. He probably is, but it’s not impossible that he’s also evil