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You are here: Home / Past Elections / 2020 Elections / Thursday Evening Open Thread: Fun With Polls

Thursday Evening Open Thread: Fun With Polls

by Anne Laurie|  May 30, 20196:41 pm| 64 Comments

This post is in: 2020 Elections, I Can No Longer Rationally Discuss The Sanders Campaign, Open Threads, Warren for President 2020, Riveted By The Sociological Significance Of It All

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Too early for polls to mean much about who will be our Democratic nominee next year, but there’s a certain entertainment value in seeing how people chose to interpret them. New poll from YouGov/the Economist, which was published online under the headline “Elizabeth Warren is now among Democratic front runners”…

Here's the full chart pic.twitter.com/841z3GjyoX

— Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) May 29, 2019


You’ll have to click on the poll picture to see the full image… but I would never have guessed there were almost as many ‘Biden or bust’ fans as, well, you know.

I suspect the Biden-or-bust people will change their minds if their guy doesn’t end as the front-runner, though. Call me a starry-eyed optimist!

Speaking of optimists:

Second image is incorrectly presented here. The poll didn't ask voters whom they were supporting, but whom they would CONSIDER supporting — those numbers are among just the 28% of the electorate who say they're only considering 1 candidate.

See: https://t.co/mDhipPE9fc https://t.co/sY1PaSToqh

— Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) May 30, 2019

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Reader Interactions

64Comments

  1. 1.

    Gozer

    May 30, 2019 at 6:48 pm

    Glad to see Sen. Warren moving up. Her and Sen. Harris are my top 2. I’d love to see a Harris/Warren or Warren/Harris ticket.

  2. 2.

    Dan B

    May 30, 2019 at 6:56 pm

    Great to see Warren and Harris moving up this early! Sanders among males is baffling….. Oh, I’m male but not “normal”. The gay blogs seem to favor Harris and Warren. They also love Pete but it looks like his nimbers have plateaued, as I’d expected.

  3. 3.

    Omnes Omnibus

    May 30, 2019 at 6:56 pm

    @Gozer: Why the fuck would you want one of them as VP? Moreover, why would either of them take the job? They would each have more power and influence in the Senate than they would as VP. I don’t mean to pick on you, but I am getting really tired of people on our side trying to find an executive branch job for every Dem politician that they like. We need good people in all levels and and branches of government.

  4. 4.

    Mary G

    May 30, 2019 at 6:58 pm

    The man who Twitler loves is a nasty piece of work:

    JUST IN: North Korea envoy executed over failed Trump-Kim summit (Chosun)— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) May 30, 2019

  5. 5.

    arrieve

    May 30, 2019 at 6:59 pm

    I think Warren’s numbers are only going to go up after the debates. It’s a crowded field — and a lot of really good candidates — but she does have a gift for explaining issues in a cogent easy to understand way. And she’s got a plan for that!

    Also, although I have made small donations to several of the campaigns, hers is the only one that reached out to me and invited me to volunteer. There are already a lot of campaign activities happening in New York, including a pre-debate picnic in Central Park. I’d be happy with most of the Dems, but the fact that she’s already so organized impressed me.

  6. 6.

    raven

    May 30, 2019 at 6:59 pm

    @Mary G: “The article is from April 25 and no one has verified it since. At the time, Chosun warned that “it is possible the regime is deliberately spreading misinformation.”
    “

  7. 7.

    Mary G

    May 30, 2019 at 7:00 pm

    So much winning:

    EXCL: @realDonaldTrump's lossmaking Scottish resort is paying a UK Govt public body just £100 a month to lease buildings at Turnberry's world-famous lighthouse, while charging guests £1,400 a night to stay in the landmark. My @TheScotsman investigation: https://t.co/IbOEhxoy7y— Martyn McLaughlin (@MartynMcL) May 30, 2019

  8. 8.

    Mary G

    May 30, 2019 at 7:01 pm

    @raven: Good, sorry. I should have checked.

  9. 9.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    May 30, 2019 at 7:04 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: ????

  10. 10.

    debbie

    May 30, 2019 at 7:04 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Seconded. Congress is not a sloppy second.

  11. 11.

    rikyrah

    May 30, 2019 at 7:11 pm

    Michelle Obama Posts Throwback Photo of Pre-Teen Malia, Sasha During Visit to Sesame Street

    https://people.com/politics/michelle-obama-throwback-photo-sasha-malia-at-sesame-street/

  12. 12.

    debbie

    May 30, 2019 at 7:13 pm

    @rikyrah:

    Wow, 50 years!!!

  13. 13.

    Baud

    May 30, 2019 at 7:15 pm

    A “considering supporting” poll will be even more of a name recognition poll than a regular poll.

  14. 14.

    Cheryl Rofer

    May 30, 2019 at 7:17 pm

    Looks like a general purge of North Korean diplomats working on the US talks. But a worthwhile caveat.

    Caveat: Such South Korean reports have been proven wrong in the past

    — Josh Smith (@joshjonsmith) May 30, 2019

  15. 15.

    Cheryl Rofer

    May 30, 2019 at 7:19 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: This is probably why Trump’s special envoy to North Korea, Steve Biegun, hasn’t been able to get any meetings lately.

  16. 16.

    plato

    May 30, 2019 at 7:20 pm

    @rikyrah: 10 million copies sold already? Go FLOTUS.

  17. 17.

    dr. bloor

    May 30, 2019 at 7:27 pm

    Most satisfying have been the MSM stories suggesting that We’re Over Bernie, Already. He’s going to hate not getting the kid gloves treatment this election cycle.

    Are any pollsters doing ranked choice polling? With everyone and my Uncle Sid running, it would be very interesting information. It would also kill the inevitability narrative for Biden, as he’s in the 30’s but not picking up much of anyone not already for him as the field thins.

  18. 18.

    debbie

    May 30, 2019 at 7:27 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Any idea what the critical error was? It seemed like Kim was onto Trump’s bullshit from the beginning.

  19. 19.

    Cheryl Rofer

    May 30, 2019 at 7:29 pm

    @debbie: It could just be that Kim felt that the Hanoi summit was a failure and needed scapegoats. That would be my first guess.

    Next would be that Kim is probably as hard to figure out as Trump is, and they just didn’t get it right.

  20. 20.

    Cheryl Rofer

    May 30, 2019 at 7:34 pm

    Here’s something from North Korea’s official newspaper, FWIW:

    North Korean state newspaper Rodong Sinmun said in a commentary on Thursday that “Acting like one is revering the Leader in front (of others) but dreaming of something else when one turns around, is an anti-Party, anti-revolutionary act that has thrown away the moral fidelity toward the Leader, and such people will not avoid the stern judgment of the revolution.”

    “There are traitors and turncoats who only memorize words of loyalty toward the Leader and even change according to the trend of the time,” the commentary said.

  21. 21.

    debbie

    May 30, 2019 at 7:36 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Scapegoating sounds like the logical reason, but I’d bet Trump will take this to be proof that Kim really, really likes him.

  22. 22.

    Baud

    May 30, 2019 at 7:37 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Trump is so stealing that for the next SOTU.

  23. 23.

    debbie

    May 30, 2019 at 7:38 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Honestly, that is frightening.

  24. 24.

    TenguPhule

    May 30, 2019 at 7:39 pm

    @Mary G: Trump’s equivalent is John Bolton.

    One can hope.

  25. 25.

    chopper

    May 30, 2019 at 7:41 pm

    @Baud:

    the leader is good! the leader is great! we surrender our will as of this date!

  26. 26.

    Felanius Kootea

    May 30, 2019 at 7:45 pm

    @debbie: He already fell in love with Kim, he said. Maybe this will get him to propose at their next meeting.

    @TenguPhule: Bolton is so lucky he works for someone too chicken to do his own firing.

  27. 27.

    Chyron HR

    May 30, 2019 at 7:45 pm

    Well, congratulations to everyone who quite literally burned down the country so that Messiah Bernie wouldn’t have to wait until 2024 to run again. Was it worth it?

  28. 28.

    Cheryl Rofer

    May 30, 2019 at 7:58 pm

    #NorthKorea watchers. Let's be careful on these reports that Kim killed #KimHyokChol. The REPORT HAS ONLY ONE UNNAMED SOURCE (That seems pretty thin.): https://t.co/BBpj96DBws

    — Harry Kazianis (@GrecianFormula) May 30, 2019

  29. 29.

    Sab

    May 30, 2019 at 8:01 pm

    Has anyone else around here read Suki Kim’s book “Without You There Is No Us” about teaching in North Korea?

  30. 30.

    Felanius Kootea

    May 30, 2019 at 8:04 pm

    @Sab: I haven’t but I should. She was a year ahead of me in college and we had a mutual friend.

  31. 31.

    tobie

    May 30, 2019 at 8:04 pm

    Still rooting for Beto. He hasn’t produced as many proposals as Warren, but the ones he has are very comprehensive on issues I care about a lot (climate change, immigration, reproductive rights). I also like his courage in speaking out about systemic racism in the US even when campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire. This is not a knock on Warren. I’m glad to see how she’s elevated the debate in the Democratic field.

  32. 32.

    tobie

    May 30, 2019 at 8:06 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: Hoo-boy. I shudder if this is true. Kim Jong-Un is like a walking killer virus. The “like” in this sentence may be inappropriate. The ‘walking killer virus’ description is not a metaphor.

  33. 33.

    Steve in the ATL

    May 30, 2019 at 8:08 pm

    @Chyron HR: did you think I wasn’t going to see this post?

  34. 34.

    karen marie

    May 30, 2019 at 8:12 pm

    @debbie: The Daily Mail (I know, I know) reported that the envoy and others were executed for having “sold” information to the US government at or before the last meeting between Kim and the Fuckwit-in-Chief.

  35. 35.

    Citizen Alan

    May 30, 2019 at 8:12 pm

    Conspiracy theory time: I am absolutely convinced that at some point, Kim Jong Un was replaced by a body double. I really don’t think the present iteration looks at all like he did when he took over in 2011.

  36. 36.

    Sab

    May 30, 2019 at 8:13 pm

    @Felanius Kootea: It’s a sweet but scary book.

  37. 37.

    debbie

    May 30, 2019 at 8:15 pm

    @karen marie:

    Interesting and kinda plausible.

  38. 38.

    tobie

    May 30, 2019 at 8:15 pm

    @Citizen Alan: Do you have pictures? I can’t remember what he looked like in 2011, though I recall that even then his haircut was strange.

  39. 39.

    Citizen Alan

    May 30, 2019 at 8:20 pm

    @tobie:

    2011


    2015 or 2016, I think.

  40. 40.

    Harbison

    May 30, 2019 at 8:21 pm

    Listen to the women. Listen to blacks.

    Biden has commanding lead among blacks and women.

    Polls this early are meaningless …

  41. 41.

    debbie

    May 30, 2019 at 8:21 pm

    @Citizen Alan:

    It’s the same guy. His head has gained a lot of weight, just like the rest of him.

  42. 42.

    tobie

    May 30, 2019 at 8:23 pm

    @Citizen Alan: I’m going to attribute the changes to massive weight gain for the moment but your hypothesis is definitely interesting.

  43. 43.

    Bobby Thomson

    May 30, 2019 at 8:24 pm

    I can’t envision a single person who voted for Clinton sitting out if Biden isn’t nominated.

  44. 44.

    karen marie

    May 30, 2019 at 8:26 pm

    @Citizen Alan: None of us look like we did in 2011. That’s nine years ago.

  45. 45.

    MP

    May 30, 2019 at 8:45 pm

    @karen marie: Pretty sure I’ve visibly aged since last Tuesday. Such are the times.

  46. 46.

    Omnes Omnibus

    May 30, 2019 at 8:47 pm

    @tobie: Actually, given what I said above, the VP position or a cabinet gig is a good spot for Beto and/or Mayor Pete.* Being from Texas and Indiana, their chances to move up through state-wide elective office is rather circumscribed. Most of the women running have alternate paths to power if they don’t get the presidential nomination this time around.

    *I think this also has some application to the Castro brothers as well.

  47. 47.

    Chyron HR

    May 30, 2019 at 8:54 pm

    @Steve in the ATL:

    I don’t think about you at all. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  48. 48.

    Steve in the ATL

    May 30, 2019 at 8:56 pm

    @karen marie: I look better. Well, not literally. Literally, I look much worse.

  49. 49.

    Omnes Omnibus

    May 30, 2019 at 8:59 pm

    @Steve in the ATL: How long is the witch’s curse supposed to last anyway?

  50. 50.

    boatboy_srq

    May 30, 2019 at 9:40 pm

    Notice the “Democrats considering one candidate” item? That’s what Wilmerbots look like. EVERYONE ELSE has taken note of Biden, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg if no more than those four. But Wilmerbots cannot conceive that another candidate will approach Saint Wilmer’s innate popular working-class appeal (much, no doubt, as they cannot grasp the non-whiteness and non-maleness of the libprog electorate). So OF COURSE they’re not looking around the field this year and thinking “Gosh, there are a lot of good people in the running this time around,” because they don’t see anyone but Saint Wilmer.

  51. 51.

    boatboy_srq

    May 30, 2019 at 9:46 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: There was an interesting bit of Interwebwisdom I saw a few days ago (I forget where). The only way to get the misogynist vote as a woman candidate would be to have a female running mate. Reasoning: a female principal candidate with a male running mate puts the running mate in a subordinate position. Man subordinate to Woman. Sexists can’t stand that. But if both are women somehow that makes it different, and potentially acceptable.

    No, I don’t understand it either. But it makes less non-sense than other theories I’ve encountered. And no, I don’t think Dems should be courting the misogynist vote for any reason other than Everyone Against The Russians GOTea.

  52. 52.

    B.B.A.

    May 30, 2019 at 10:04 pm

    Biden? BIDEN?! If you’ll excuse me I’ll be banging my head against the wall for the next five years.

  53. 53.

    Martin

    May 30, 2019 at 10:12 pm

    @B.B.A.: Black voters don’t have the luxury of voting for a candidate that can’t beat Trump. If they think that candidate is Biden, they’ll vote Biden. It is the job of the other candidates to disprove that assertion. That’s why Hillary was leading Obama going into 2008. Obama had to convince them he could win. He did, and they switched candidates, and that didn’t happen until 6 months from now.

  54. 54.

    BruceFromOhio

    May 30, 2019 at 10:37 pm

    Too early for polls to mean much

    Yes you could have stopped there. Yes I’m quoting you out of context. Yes I did that deliberately.
    My sample set is three. My conclusion is 100% Yes responses. My confidence rating is 95%, there’s a possibility I misquoted you.

  55. 55.

    BruceFromOhio

    May 30, 2019 at 10:38 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Sixteen jillion years.

  56. 56.

    Immanentize

    May 30, 2019 at 10:46 pm

    @Steve in the ATL:
    Very happy you are on the clock!

  57. 57.

    B.B.A.

    May 30, 2019 at 10:47 pm

    @Martin: Biden can’t beat Trump.

  58. 58.

    satby

    May 30, 2019 at 10:50 pm

    So anyone else watching Fleabag on Amazon?

  59. 59.

    satby

    May 30, 2019 at 10:53 pm

    @B.B.A.: sure he can. In a choice between Trump and Biden sane people vote for Biden and he wins.
    Insane people will vote for Stein or write in Wilmer or whatever, but the last few years have clarified quite a lot even for non voters.

  60. 60.

    Omnes Omnibus

    May 30, 2019 at 10:57 pm

    @B.B.A.: @B.B.A.: Panic away. It’s a year and a half before the fucking election. It’s more than six months before the first primary. So go ahead and panic about who’s leading in the polls today. Jesus fucking Christ.

  61. 61.

    waysel

    May 30, 2019 at 11:01 pm

    @satby: Yes.

  62. 62.

    satby

    May 30, 2019 at 11:03 pm

    @waysel: I am loving it! You?

  63. 63.

    Immanentize

    May 30, 2019 at 11:11 pm

    @satby: just started.

  64. 64.

    stan

    May 31, 2019 at 12:47 pm

    Fleabag is brilliant. That and Catastrophe and the best series we’ve seen in a long time.

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