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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Rofer on International Relations / Long Read: The 84-Day Hold On Aid To Ukraine

Long Read: The 84-Day Hold On Aid To Ukraine

by Cheryl Rofer|  December 30, 20191:06 pm| 57 Comments

This post is in: Rofer on International Relations, Trump Crime Cartel

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This is an important article. The broad story it tells isn’t new: Donald Trump held back Congressionally appropriated funds for Ukraine, in contravention of law and recommdations by the Departments of Defense and State. What is new is the detail of how that was done, an attempted legal justification, and who was eager to help him.

News reports about the administration now usually give information about the sources the reports are based on. In this case, it was

Interviews with dozens of current and former administration officials, congressional aides and others, previously undisclosed emails and documents, and a close reading of thousands of pages of impeachment testimony[.]

Here’s a short summary. Lots more details in the article. Basically, Trump decided to withhold the money; White House lawyers tried to construct a justification; civil servants and even some of Trump’s appointees tried to talk him out of it; his messenger boys went to the departments to work it out; and, when the whistle was blown, Trump gave it up. All this time, Rudy Giuliani was meeting with Ukrainian officials and others; this was not known to all participants at the time.

Robert Blair, Assistant to the President and Senior Advisor to Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, was a key player along with Mulvaney. Mulvaney brought him along when he moved to the White House. On December 23, he was named Special Representative for International Telecommunications Policy, although he will also continue to serve in his previous role.

On June 19, Blair called Russell T. Vought, the acting head of the Office of Management and Budget, and told him to hold up the aid. Trying to understand the reason for the holdup, Vought’s staff searched the internet and found an article in the Washington Examiner that might have set off the President. In a normal White House, a decision like this would have been made in consultation with experts from the Departments of State, Defense, and Treasury. In fact, State and Defense had already certified sending the funds to Ukraine as appropriate.

The career official in the budget office in charge of the funds was Mark Sandy. He phoned other officials in the budget office and Defense Department to try to understand what was happening. It was not a normal request. He was concerned that it might violate the Impoundment Control Act, which prohibits the President from holding up money Congress has appropriated.

A month later, on July 18, William Taylor, acting Ambassador to Ukraine, and other officials learned about the hold in a meeting. Taylor testified to Congress that he was astonished. On the same day, administration sources called four Congressional staffers and urged that they look into the hold.

A week later, Trump famously telephoned Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelinsky and asked for a favor. Ninety minutes after the call, the budget office sent an email to the Pentagon saying not to spend the money. Ukrainian officials were beginning to get word that something was up.

In late July, Sandy’s authority over the funds was removed and given to his boss, a political appointee. Defense Department officials were becoming impatient. Deadlines were approaching by which portions of the money had to be spent, or it would be lost.

Backed by a memo saying the National Security Council, the Pentagon and the State Department all wanted the aid released, Mr. Bolton made a personal appeal to Mr. Trump on Aug. 16, but was rebuffed.

On Aug. 28, Politico published a story reporting that the assistance to Ukraine had been frozen. After more than two months, the issue, the topic of fiery internal debate, was finally public.

Mr. Bolton’s relationship with the president had been deteriorating for months, and he would leave the White House weeks later, but on this front he had powerful internal allies.

On a sunny, late-August day, Mr. Bolton, Mr. Esper and Mr. Pompeo arrayed themselves around the Resolute desk in the Oval Office to present a united front, the leaders of the president’s national security team seeking to convince him face to face that freeing up the money for Ukraine was the right thing to do.

Through this time, White House lawyers were trying to develop a legal justification for the hold. Then came the whistleblower’s report, at the end of August. Shortly after, the hold was lifted.

Many questions remain unanswered, like who knew about Giuliani’s activities and when they knew; how long the shakedown was in progress before the hold; and how Trump came to his ideas about Ukraine. Once again, it was civil servants who tried to hold firm against inappropriate actions.

In addition to Trump’s corrupt use of government funds to force Zelensky into helping his election campaign, holding up those funds and causing uncertainty in the Ukrainian government benefits Russia.

The specifics in this article will be helpful in making a case that Mulvaney and other officials must be called as witnesses in the Senate impeachment trial.

Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner

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Reader Interactions

57Comments

  1. 1.

    debbie

    December 30, 2019 at 1:12 pm

    Were you surprised to read that Pompeo was one of the ones trying to stop Trump? I know I was; he’s such a yes man.

  2. 2.

    Cheryl Rofer

    December 30, 2019 at 1:16 pm

    @debbie: I was surprised. It may have been a matter of peer pressure. There’s a lot we still don’t know.

  3. 3.

    JPL

    December 30, 2019 at 1:16 pm

    The article shows why the testimony is important, but paints a picture of such incompetence, Mitch will never allow it.

    Even trump’s base would understand that  playing golf with John Daly wasn’t as important as national security.   nah, never mind I jest.

  4. 4.

    Yutsano

    December 30, 2019 at 1:26 pm

    I’ll take your summary as I still refuse to give FTFNYT anything regarding my information or my money.

    Jeebus what a Charlie Foxtrot! All because a simpering, worthless, inhumane carnival barker got the Russians to change things just enough to win the Electoral College. I don’t know how any country could trust us ever again.

  5. 5.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 30, 2019 at 1:27 pm

    My favorite part was about Mulvaney leaving the room every time the President met with Giuliani in order to “preserve the President’s attorney-client privilege”.

  6. 6.

    Redshift

    December 30, 2019 at 1:30 pm

    The other questions that remain unanswered are Trump’s and Giuliani’s activities with the previous president of Ukraine. I’ve read reports that he was more corrupt/cooperative, and this whole cluster was in part because they had to scramble after his surprise election loss. But I’d like to see it in a major news outlet.

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 30, 2019 at 1:32 pm

    @Redshift: It appears that in order to prevent a cut off on aid, Poroshenko had his government stop cooperating with Special Counsel Mueller’s office.

  8. 8.

    Betty Cracker

    December 30, 2019 at 1:34 pm

    There are also plenty of indications that Giuliani and his goons, Perry and perhaps others were looking for a way to cash in on their roles commercially. Now we know Giuliani was also involved in back channel talks in Venezuela, probably to include opportunities to wet his beak. There doesn’t seem to be an end to these people’s corruption and greed. We’ll probably never know about even a 10th of it.

  9. 9.

    debbie

    December 30, 2019 at 1:36 pm

    @Adam L Silverman:

    He should have just stuck his fingers in his ears and shouted, “La, la, la, la, la.”

  10. 10.

    mrmoshpotato

    December 30, 2019 at 1:37 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Surprised it wasn’t “Mick, Rudy and I need to talk tremendous bigly crime things.  Go to that end of the room, cover your ears and go ‘Lalalallalalala I can’t hear you!'”

  11. 11.

    MattF

    December 30, 2019 at 1:38 pm

    My immediate reaction on learning that Giuliani was involved in holding up the Ukraine aid was ‘Well, of course he was involved’. But we have to look for the critical points in the Giuliani/Trump timeline– it now seems to me that Giuliani stepped in at the exact time that the argument was Trump vs. everybody. Trump values loyalty above all, and Giuliani offered it.

  12. 12.

    Warblewarble

    December 30, 2019 at 1:44 pm

    Step 1 ,Lock them all up. Step 2, twist keys into pretzels.

  13. 13.

    Cheryl Rofer

    December 30, 2019 at 1:44 pm

    @Betty Cracker: There is a whole story line about Rick Perry and Ukraine’s gas company that we haven’t heard much about. Dmytro Firtash, who was paying Giuliani’s friends Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman and others through them, has long wanted to control Ukraine’s gas companies.

  14. 14.

    Citizen_X

    December 30, 2019 at 1:48 pm

    A month later, on July 18,

     

    A reminder that there was a clock ticking: a deadline in September (the 30th?) by which the money had to be spent, and now an entire month out of the 3 1/2 months remaining had passed before the ambassador heard anything about the hold.

     

    The Trumpers did not give a shit.

  15. 15.

    Gin & Tonic

    December 30, 2019 at 1:51 pm

    @Redshift:

    I’ve read reports that he was more corrupt/cooperative

    [citation needed]

  16. 16.

    jeffreyw

    December 30, 2019 at 1:58 pm

    @Adam L Silverman:

    My favorite part was about Mulvaney leaving the room every time the President met with Giuliani in order to “preserve the President’s attorney-client privilege”.

    Micky?  Is you taking notes on a criminal conspiracy?

  17. 17.

    Martin

    December 30, 2019 at 1:59 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Oh, he totally was. That’s not even in question. Where Zelenski needs to have his arm twisted to do Trumps bidding, Poroshenko was like Trump – just give him a favorable set of terms and he was on it. Dealmaking is easy when you are utterly amoral.

  18. 18.

    laura

    December 30, 2019 at 1:59 pm

    The trumpers have been and continue to be scuzzy shake down artists engaged in questionable/criminal behavior since jump street.

    It’s hard to imagine that any/every country has been subject to massive cronyism since before the inauguration. When the information dam finally breaks and we learn the scope of the president led crime wave, every greasy weasel that’s propped up, supported, covered for, justified this shite show needs a long prison sentence after a series of trials.

    Only then can we as a nation expect to start working to regain a semblance of worth. But then again, all the babies and children we’ve torn from their parents should be old enough to start dishing us out some well deserved blow back.

    We. Are. Fucked.

  19. 19.

    Jinchi

    December 30, 2019 at 2:03 pm

    Once again, it was civil servants who tried to hold firm against inappropriate actions.

    The Trump era is highlighting all the failure points of modern American democracy. The Republican party has collapsed completely. The courts have been a mixed bag, and are showing signs of weakening as more Trump judges get confirmed. The media as a whole appears to be getting marginally better, finally willing to call a lie a lie. And for all the flak they get from the pundits, voters have been pretty solid.

    Civil servants are on the frontline of the fight and have performed honorably and selflessly, but are highly vulnerable to assault from above. People shouldn’t have to risk their careers and face death threats defending the country against their bosses.

    Hopefully the country doesn’t fall into the trap of “looking forwards, not backwards” once Democrats regain power. There’s a lot that needs to be fixed to prevent this from happening again.

  20. 20.

    Brachiator

    December 30, 2019 at 2:03 pm

    I am a simple man maybe looking at this too simply.  Some questions and observations.

    Did Putin tell Trump that Biden was corrupt?  The “investigation” into the Bidens is pointless.  They did  nothing wrong.  Trump doesn’t seem smart enough to get anyone to manufacture and plant evidence of a crime.  So, why did he bother with this nonsense in the first place?

    Trump himself has raised corruption to new heights. Or lowered it to new depths.

    Trump sincerely believes that the US government is his to do with it as he pleases.  It is an extension of the Trump organization.

    The eagerness with which some of his hires collude in these crimes and eagerly seek to please Trump is staggering.  All these people belong in jail.  But their toadying is pathetic and disgusting.

    These new revelations seem to be an easy to follow trail.  Trump and these people are delusional if they thought that they would not be exposed.

    And yet, the GOP dominated Senate will clear them.

  21. 21.

    Another Scott

    December 30, 2019 at 2:08 pm

    @laura:

    Speaking of blowback, AlJazeera:

    Iran has said the United States showed its “support for terrorism” by carrying out air attacks on the Shia armed group Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq and Syria.

    The Pentagon said on Sunday that it had targeted the Iran-linked militia group in western Iraq and eastern Syria in response to the killing of a US civilian contractor two days earlier.

    […]

    Iraqi security and militia sources said at least 25 fighters had been killed and 55 others wounded in the air attacks in Iraq which the US described as “defensive strikes”.

    At least four Kataib Hezbollah commanders were among the dead, the sources said, adding that one of the raids had hit the Iran-backed group’s headquarters near the western al-Qaim district on the border with Syria.

    “These attacks have once again proved America’s false claims in fighting Daesh… as the United States has targeted the positions of forces that over the years have inflicted heavy blows to Daesh terrorists,” Iran’s government spokesman Abbas Mousavi said, referring to ISIL (ISIS).

    “With these attacks, America has shown its firm support for terrorism and its neglect for the independence and sovereignty of countries and it must accept consequences for its illegal act,” he said in a statement.

    The spokesman said the presence of foreign forces in the region was the cause of insecurity and tensions. “America must put an end to its occupying presence,” said Mousavi.

    US-Iran tensions have soared since Washington pulled out of a landmark nuclear agreement with Tehran last year and began reimposing crippling sanctions.

    ‘Violation of Iraqi sovereignty’

    Meanwhile, Iraq also condemned the US attack against the Kataib Hezbollah armed group’s positions as a “violation of Iraqi sovereignty”.

    In a statement on Sunday, Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi called the move a “dangerous escalation that threatens the security of Iraq and the region”.

    Abdul Mahdi said US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper had called him about half an hour before the US raids to tell him of the US intentions to hit bases belonging to the armed group suspected of being behind Friday’s rocket attack. He said he asked Esper to call off US retaliation plans.

    The statement said Iraqi President Barham Salih, who also condemned the attack, had received advance notice from a US diplomat and asked unsuccessfully for the US to call it off.

    […]

    It’s a good thing that we’re working in consensus with our partners in the region… :-/

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  22. 22.

    Yutsano

    December 30, 2019 at 2:11 pm

    @Brachiator:

    And yet, the GOP dominated Senate will clear them.

    That’s the biggest scandal to me. Yes President Toadface is committing crimes right and left and his nepotism hires are pretty much lining their pockets with every petty scam they can. It’s the Republicans in general that are the real problem. Every single one to a man is enabling all this. And despite all the speculation no one can say exactly why. The Era of the Orange will end. What do Republicans do then? Keep going in on all alternative facts while hoping rural states keep their power outsized?

  23. 23.

    Brachiator

    December 30, 2019 at 2:21 pm

    @Another Scott:

    US-Iran tensions have soared since Washington pulled out of a landmark nuclear agreement with Tehran last year and began reimposing crippling sanctions.

    This is as pointless as Trump’s trade war with China. There is no coherent policy here, nor any way that Iran could reasonably comply with any US demands short of complete submission to Trump’s will.

  24. 24.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 30, 2019 at 2:22 pm

    @Betty Cracker: @Cheryl Rofer:

    balloon-juice.com/2019/10/25/black-psyop-la-affair-ukraine-ag-barrs-investigation-and-the-impeachmen…

    2) The Firtash initiative. Firtash wants off house arrest in Vienna and out from under the extradition order to send him to the US to face the Federal crimes he’s been indicted for. The reason Firtash wants this done is because he’s Putin’s man in Ukraine’s natural gas industry. If Firtash can get back to Kyiv he can then once again try to take over Ukraine’s natural gas sector, suck it dry of profits, and fuck up its operations, which will force the Ukrainians to buy natural gas from Russia while removing Ukrainian natural gas as an alternative to Russian natural gas for the rest of the EU market. This all benefits Putin, who is Firtash’s krysha (roof/ceiling) in the Russian mob. Just as he is for every other one of these oligarchs aligned with him.
    A) Firtash’s efforts weren’t going very far, so he fired his US attorneys and hired Toensing and DiGenova. They then hired Parnas to do their translation work despite it being reported that Firtash and most of his staff speaking fluent and/or functional English.
    B) Firtash was laundering manufactured dirt and conspiracy theories about the Bidens, about the Democrats working with Ukraine to steal the 2016 election, etc through Parnas and Fruman and Toensing and DiGenova to Giuliani. Giuliana who was being paid/worked for Parnas, but also somehow also Parnas’s boss.
    C) Toensing and DiGenova are also working for free to assist Giuliani with manufacturing dirt on the Bidens.

  25. 25.

    Dmbeaster

    December 30, 2019 at 2:24 pm

    @Adam L Silverman:  As a trial lawyer, this canard about using the privilege as some sort of legal omerta is just galling.  I am sure that there is no privilege, or any such privilege would be voided by the crime fraud exception.  But they have to be secret to maintain the pretense.

    Trump learned long ago the utility of lawyers for doing fraudulent business deals, even though the privilege does not apply.  Its just another layer of criminality.

  26. 26.

    Roger Moore

    December 30, 2019 at 2:25 pm

    @Brachiator:

    Did Putin tell Trump that Biden was corrupt? The “investigation” into the Bidens is pointless. They did nothing wrong. Trump doesn’t seem smart enough to get anyone to manufacture and plant evidence of a crime. So, why did he bother with this nonsense in the first place?

    He doesn’t have to prove anything to get a significant effect.  Just having Ukraine announce an investigation would be enough to get the media into a frenzy.  Even if they eventually concluded there was nothing there, the months of talking about Biden and corruption in the same sentence would convince people that he was corrupt.  This is the essence of the Big Lie approach to propaganda; a lie that’s repeated enough can never be completely debunked in popular opinion.  You have only to look at Hillary Clinton’s reputation to see how effective it can be.

  27. 27.

    Kay

    December 30, 2019 at 2:29 pm

    Good article asking Ivanka Trump grown up questions:

    You said a moment ago that “the fourth person I hired was pregnant when I hired her. So we put a policy [of paid leave] in place for her.” But she disagrees with you, doesn’t she? Your former chief marketing officer Marissa Kraxberger has written that she and her colleagues had to fight “long and hard to get [you] to finally agree to 8 weeks paid maternity leave.”

    If she wants to play senior adviser she should be held to that standard. If she WERE held to that standard there wouldn’t be any more Ivanka interviews, because she would fail in a humiliating way.

    Let her fail! Stop propping her up! It’s not out fault she took a nepotism position she isn’t qualified to hold. We don’t have any duty to play along with her fantasy.

  28. 28.

    Brachiator

    December 30, 2019 at 2:30 pm

    @Yutsano:

    And despite all the speculation no one can say exactly why. The Era of the Orange will end. What do Republicans do then? Keep going in on all alternative facts while hoping rural states keep their power outsized?

    Because a good chunk of voters support Trump, and another chunk is willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and sit back while he does his thing, the GOP sees that they have an unparalleled opportunity to achieve their dreams.

    And they will lie and gerrymander and suppress votes to try to retain power after Trump is out of office.

    And as a former president with elder statesman status, Trump will continue to be a celebrity. He will be the shitty gift to the country that keeps on giving.

  29. 29.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 30, 2019 at 2:31 pm

    @Another Scott: @Brachiator: Leaving the fact that at the national strategic level the policy and strategy is all hosed up because the President has hosed it up, as well as empowering people like Bolton and Pompeo to hose it up, this targeting decision was made at the the theater strategic command level. The Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF OIR) Commanding General is my former boss. I was his cultural advisor/senior civilian advisor when he was deployed to Iraq as a brigade combat team commander in 2008. I know him very well. I spent almost a year in targeting meetings with him. I know his decision making process. And while I don’t know any specifics regarding these strikes other than what has been reported, based on my experience serving with him I can guarantee that the target selection for this was appropriate.

    Full disclosure: I have been in touch with him since he took command of CJTF OIR, provided some reach back support, and have offered to deploy forward twice if he decides he needs/wants me back in Iraq.

  30. 30.

    Cheryl Rofer

    December 30, 2019 at 2:32 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Yep. I still don’t see how it all fits with Perry’s Texas oilmen who want to sell natural gas to Ukraine or maybe be on the national gas company’s board of directors (not clear is this is all the same oil men).

    In some ways, the situation with Firtash is clearer, but I’ll bet there are some surprises there too.

  31. 31.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 30, 2019 at 2:32 pm

    @Dmbeaster: I’m just a criminologist who has professionally wandered far afield of his doctoral education and training, but that was my take too.

  32. 32.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 30, 2019 at 2:34 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: No arguments from me. The Texas connection, other than Perry just trying to do favors for people that have done favors for him in the past and might do so again in the future, is a bit weird. But Perry isn’t particularly bright. So I’m sure that figures in here somehow.

  33. 33.

    Another Scott

    December 30, 2019 at 2:35 pm

    @Roger Moore:

    +1

    It’s even more insidious than that. Our conscious mind doesn’t control our bodies and thoughts and actions as much as we think.

    With Good Reason – The Illusion of Control (7 minutes)

    Fascinating stuff, which has implications that we’re just beginning to understand when it comes to politics, etc., etc.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  34. 34.

    Brachiator

    December 30, 2019 at 2:49 pm

    @Roger Moore:

    He doesn’t have to prove anything to get a significant effect. Just having Ukraine announce an investigation would be enough to get the media into a frenzy.

    I understand the Art of the Smear, and how Trump tries to use it.  But much of this had already been looked at, and the conclusion was that there was nothing there.

    So, Trump’s continued insistence of an investigation only appeals to his base.

    Even the lazy and idiot part of the media see that there is nothing here.  They can’t work up a media frenzy if there the available information leads nowhere. With Clinton’s emails, people could fill in the gap and imagine damaging emails.  There is not the same thing here.

    This leaves Fox News and Sinclair Broadcast group. They are trying hard, but again, ultimately preach to the already converted.

    Getting Ukraine’s cooperation is not sufficient.  It’s messy and unreliable. They could announce an investigation, but unless they were adept at manufacturing damning evidence, this would go nowhere fast. And being under pressure is not the same thing as being a willing goon.  Good results are not guaranteed.

    Trump had been more successful with a lower level of smear tactics.  He got too ambitious here, and it is biting him in the ass.

  35. 35.

    Gin & Tonic

    December 30, 2019 at 2:49 pm

    @Martin:

    Oh, he totally was. That’s not even in question.

    Evidence, please?

  36. 36.

    Yutsano

    December 30, 2019 at 2:53 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: So…basically you have semi-permanent impostor syndrome?

  37. 37.

    Brachiator

    December 30, 2019 at 2:55 pm

    @Adam L Silverman:

    And I can guarantee that the target selection for this was appropriate.

    I hear you. Thanks for this info.  However, the political context is perhaps beyond the domain of the military decision. The right thing, even the necessary thing, might have unfortunate consequences.

  38. 38.

    WaterGirl

    December 30, 2019 at 2:55 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Everything I have heard on all the podcasts about this share Martin’s point of view, but I certainly am not in a position to provide “evidence”.  Perhaps Martin will be.

    Are you in disagreement with the concept that the new president is less corrupt than the previous one?

  39. 39.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 30, 2019 at 2:56 pm

    @Yutsano: My name isn’t actually Adam L Silverman and I am not now, nor was I ever, here.//

  40. 40.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 30, 2019 at 2:58 pm

    @Brachiator: Without a doubt. But he both understands that and understands that it is above his pay grade. He has to do what is necessary within the ROE, the Laws of Armed Conflict, and our agreements with the Iraqi government allowing US and coalition forces to be in Iraq and operate there to both effectively execute the theater strategy and to appropriately conduct force protection (FORCEPRO) operations.

  41. 41.

    J R in WV

    December 30, 2019 at 3:01 pm

    @Adam L Silverman:

    My favorite part was about Mulvaney leaving the room every time the President met with Giuliani in order to “preserve the President’s attorney-client privilege”.

    I didn’t know Mulvaney was a lawyer !!   //     ;-)

  42. 42.

    randy khan

    December 30, 2019 at 3:02 pm

    @Adam L Silverman:

    My favorite part was about Mulvaney leaving the room every time the President met with Giuliani in order to “preserve the President’s attorney-client privilege”.

    Mulvaney is smarter than I thought if he came up with that excuse.  I’m sure he really was leaving because he didn’t want to become a co-conspirator in whatever crime Giuliani was trying to commit.

  43. 43.

    Tsquared2001

    December 30, 2019 at 3:08 pm

    @Kay: The Face the Nation interview was an exercise in vapid game recognizing other vapid game. Disgraceful.

  44. 44.

    Roger Moore

    December 30, 2019 at 3:10 pm

    @Brachiator:

    I think you’re underestimating the importance of an official announcement of an investigation, at least if Trump had managed to keep his fingerprints off it.  It’s true that the media had done some investigation and concluded there was no there there.  But if the Ukrainian government had officially announced they were opening an investigation, it would have changed that.  The announcement itself would have been major news, especially given the news media’s proven propensity to repeat anything that comes from an important person regardless of supporting evidence (e.g. breathless repetition of anything Trump says).  It would also have forced them to reopen their investigations to check to see if there was something they had missed.  Once those investigations were open, they would have had an excuse to repeat any evidence against Biden, no matter how questionable, if only to justify the effort.

    The official announcement would also open the media to typical influence by the puke funnel.  Remember, this is the same media that accepts “people are talking about it” as an excuse to repeat right wing smears.  How much more willing will they be when those smears appear to be backed up by an official Ukrainian investigation?  And again, they don’t have to make the charges stick; they just have to create an air of sleaze around Biden to shift public opinion.

  45. 45.

    J R in WV

    December 30, 2019 at 3:10 pm

    @Yutsano:

    @Brachiator:

    And yet, the GOP dominated Senate will clear them.

    That’s the biggest scandal to me. Yes President Toadface [Trump] is committing crimes right and left and his nepotism hires are pretty much lining their pockets with every petty scam they can. It’s the Republicans in general that are the real problem. Every single one to a man is enabling all this. And despite all the speculation no one can say exactly why. The Era of the Orange will end. What do Republicans do then? Keep going in on all alternative facts while hoping rural states keep their power outsized?

    I will point out that the first President to be Impeached and found not guilty by the Senate, Andrew Johnson, was “cleared” by the sitting Senate by one vote according to Wikipedia:

    On each occasion the vote was 35–19, with 35 senators voting guilty and 19 not guilty. As the constitutional threshold for a conviction in an impeachment trial is a two-thirds majority guilty vote, 36 votes in this instance, Johnson was not convicted.

    What is more interesting than this vote count is that not one of the 19 Senators who voted not guilty ever held any elective office ever again. I think people should be pointing this out to the current sitting Senators.

  46. 46.

    Gin & Tonic

    December 30, 2019 at 3:11 pm

    @WaterGirl: I am in disagreement with the concept of “everyone knows” this or that when it comes to the politics of a country they don’t know, and which most people in the US, up until this summer, could not have reliably located on a map.

    Petro Poroshenko is not a choirboy. Nobody who has amassed great wealth in Ukraine is. He had blind spots in several areas as President, but he was certainly substantially better than Yanukovych, and spent most of his Presidency saddled with the aftermath of the Maidan revolution and Russia’s war. The public grew tired of him, just as in many countries the public grows tired of their political leaders. Zelensky is young, he is not fabulously wealthy, and, by virtue of being a political neophyte he is not saddled with guys like Lutsenko. But his relationship with (in fact his reliance on) Kolomoisky is not a 99  & 44/100’s kind of cleanliness. The bright spot in Ukrainian politics is the Verkhovna Rada (the unicameral legislative body), which is 80% new, with a lot of young and idealistic people.

    Poroshenko’s problem with respect to the US is that he was pretty clearly in favor of HRC, and sort of expected her to win (as did lots of Americans.) In part that was because he knew better than most what Manafort’s hiring signified. When Trump was elected, he had to do a lot of backpedaling (like the aforementioned non-cooperation with Mueller) to keep the dollars flowing.

  47. 47.

    Another Scott

    December 30, 2019 at 3:12 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: I agree that that’s the way that it’s supposed to work, but the reporting sounds very weird in this case.

    It sounds to me like Donnie’s political people wanted to quickly retaliate for the killing of the US contractor.  So they told Sec. Esper to come up with a plan and get it done ASAP.  And that’s when your colleague came up with a potential target list, etc.  And then, when he had the list and timing, Sec. Esper called Iraq and said it was happening.

    If it went through normal procedures and channels, why would Sec. Esper call Prime Minister Mahdi, and why would he go ahead when Iraq said no?

    It seems to be another example of Donnie breaking norms.

    But that’s just my impression – I have no inside knowledge.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  48. 48.

    wvng

    December 30, 2019 at 3:22 pm

    And this is the problem with FTFNYT. As terrible and destructive as their political reporting often is, the paper does incredible and necessary investigative reporting. This is just one example among many. We need them. We also need them to do politics right.

  49. 49.

    Roger Moore

    December 30, 2019 at 3:24 pm

    @Gin & Tonic:

    When Trump was elected, he had to do a lot of backpedaling (like the aforementioned non-cooperation with Mueller) to keep the dollars flowing.

    I think this is the thing most people here are reacting to.  They see his willingness to suck up to Trump as evidence of corruption, rather than as the reasonable response of a leader trying to pick the best of a bad set of options.  People who want to criticize Poroshenko for caving to Trump should bear in mind that Zelensky was literally hours away from doing the same when the whistle blower business became public and bailed him out.

  50. 50.

    Brachiator

    December 30, 2019 at 3:25 pm

    @Roger Moore:

    I think you’re underestimating the importance of an official announcement of an investigation, at least if Trump had managed to keep his fingerprints off it.

    Trump set the entire thing in motion.  It was impossible for him to have kept his tiny hands off this charade.  He is not practiced at the arts of deception.

    It’s true that the media had done some investigation and concluded there was no there there. But if the Ukrainian government had officially announced they were opening an investigation, it would have changed that.

    Again, they would have announced an investigation which would immediately gone nowhere.

    There is not much point in speculating how successful this thing might have been.  We are where we are, at the border of Impeachment Towers.

  51. 51.

    Another Scott

    December 30, 2019 at 3:47 pm

    @Brachiator:

    Again, they would have announced an investigation which would immediately gone nowhere.

    You seem to be forgetting that DC is wired for Republicans. Remember how Barr played up the investigation into the FBI’s “misconduct” in “investigating Trump”?

    Such an announced investigation involving the Bidens would be in the press and GOP talking points until the polls closed on November 3, 2020. Guaranteed.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  52. 52.

    JPL

    December 30, 2019 at 4:04 pm

    @Brachiator: I read Trump felt that Biden would be damaged by the mere mention that there was an investigation

    Many others have responded before me.   During the campaign trump said that Russia was justified in taking Crimea.   Because of that many Ukrainian officials were vocal against trump.  Trump is a vindictive shithead.

  53. 53.

    Brachiator

    December 30, 2019 at 4:16 pm

    @Another Scott:

    You seem to be forgetting that DC is wired for Republicans.

    It’s more wired for the lazy, the stupid and the incurious.

    Remember how Barr played up the investigation into the FBI’s “misconduct” in “investigating Trump”?

    But Barr was Trump’s guy. He was raised on the lackey farm and was an eager volunteer for Trump’s Army of Toadies.

    Such an announced investigation involving the Bidens would be in the press and GOP talking points until the polls closed on November 3, 2020. Guaranteed.

    But that’s not how it played out.  The grand plan fell apart fairly quickly. Trump is not really much of a mastermind.

  54. 54.

    Mike in NC

    December 30, 2019 at 4:25 pm

    @Brachiator: No, not a mastermind but definitely a megalomaniac who really believes the universe revolves around him. The Trumps could have stayed in midtown Manhattan and enjoyed the fruits of their criminal enterprise, but they were too greedy for their own good. May the New Year bring them all an avalanche of trouble.

  55. 55.

    Roger Moore

    December 30, 2019 at 5:01 pm

    @Brachiator:

    It’s more wired for the lazy, the stupid and the incurious.

    You say tomayto, I say tomahto.

  56. 56.

    Shalimar

    December 30, 2019 at 5:32 pm

    @randy khan: My guess is if Mulvaney did leave the room for discussions between Trump and Giuliani, it was because Trump considers him the equivalent of a butler and ordered him out while the important people talked.  He’s too much of a toady to leave on his own initiative.

  57. 57.

    artem1s

    December 30, 2019 at 9:16 pm

    @Mike in NC: 

    The Trumps could have stayed in midtown Manhattan and enjoyed the fruits of their criminal enterprise, but they were too greedy for their own good.

    Or there were no more fruits left from their bankruptcy, Ponzi development schemes and they had no choice but to find a way to pay up their overdue loans to their loan shark very legitimate lenders.

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