From CNN:
Sen. Amy Klobuchar will end her presidential bid on Monday and endorse Joe Biden, a campaign aide tells CNN.
The Klobuchar campaign confirmed that the senator is flying to Dallas to join the former vice president at his rally, where she will suspend her campaign and give her endorsement on the eve of Super Tuesday.
Not surprising, but notable. Open thread.
TomatoQueen
Sigh.
Baud
Tulsi’s still in it!
Chris Johnson
Sooooo… will Bloomberg drop out and endorse Joe Biden? Leaving Biden, and then Warren and Sanders to split the Left? Or will Bloomberg try to beat Biden?
janesays
It’s a two horse race. There are technically five candidates still running, but three of them are running zombie campaigns.
If you don’t want Bernie Sanders as the nominee, now is the time to get behind Joe Biden. Because it’s going to be one of those two guys on the ballot in November.
schrodingers_cat
@janesays: Seconded.
Adam L Silverman
Eez a konzpeeruzee!
zhena gogolia
I’ve been behind Biden for a while. Head, not heart. But my heart is okay too at this point.
I don’t want to have to choose between two candidates favored by Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.
janesays
@Chris Johnson: Bloomberg’s not going to be a real factor. Warren obliterated his campaign hopes in Las Vegas. He’ll pull votes from Biden for sure, but he’s not going to win a single contest in this race. Neither will Gabbard, obviously. Warren might win Massachusetts, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on that one. She won’t win any other state.
Citizen_X
@Baud: Baud/Gabbard 2020!
Nicole
She just wanted to outlast Pete. ?
Adam L Silverman
Because she’s from Minnesota!
E.
I could be talked into changing my Warren vote for Biden but honestly, I would need to know who his running mate is. Till then I’m sticking with Warren.
Baud
@Citizen_X:
She would shiv me so fast. No way!
Adam L Silverman
@janesays: Gabbard is in it to declare the whole thing a sham and announce a third party candidacy to spoil the general election.
HinTN
@Citizen_X: Baud Grabber 2020
Victor Matheson
@Citizen_X: I can’t really get behind Baud/Gabbard 2020 until I know exactly how Baud looks in a surfer’s wetsuit.
zhena gogolia
@E.:
I am confident he will pick a good running mate. I do not have that confidence about BS.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
President Biden will be a nice reminder that we could have had President Hillary if we didn’t take people for granted.
Mike in NC
Joe should ask her to be his running mate tonight.
Ohio Mom
I don’t mind Warren staying in — I am guessing she is keeping a few voters from going to Bernie and she can be a fabulous attack dog.
I am sad about giving up the image of her in the White House, behind the desk in the Oval Office, but I can live with Biden. He’s a politician’s politician, he knows the days of voting for things like that rotten bankruptcy bill are over. He’ll pick a good team and let them do a lot of the heavy lifting.
zhena gogolia
@Mike in NC:
I’m hoping for Harris!
Icedfire
@E.: Honestly the first thing I wondered when I heard that Amy was flying to join him in person was whether something more than an endorsement was on the table.
Immanentize
@Baud: I am unwilling to count her, so:
Really, Warren is the only woman left in the primary.
ETA. I would really like to hear her say, “Settle down, boys…” at the next debate.
Barbara
After donating to Klobuchar, Harris, and Warren, I started donating to Biden at the beginning of the year. I am still exasperated that the old guard won’t step out of the way, but I voted for Biden on Saturday. I like Warren and I would have gladly voted for her, but I don’t like her enough to think that she has a path forward.
Klobuchar and Buttigieg are being strategic — dropping out later won’t get them nearly as much leverage in a new administration as dropping out now will.
Baud
@Immanentize:
If Bloomberg drops out and it’s just her, Bernie, and Biden, it’ll be an interesting debate.
Immanentize
@janesays: Winning is not the only goal in the primary.
trollhattan
Where are my Midwest Heartland Values ™ coming from now? I suppose Oklahoma is Very Lower Midwest.
Ohio Mom
Adam L Silverman @14: How late can someone realistically start mounting a third party campaign? Isn’t time running out for Gabbard? (Crossing my fingers and hoping so).
janesays
So, if Mike Bloomberg really, really wanted to keep Sanders from winning the nomination, he would quit the race now and immediately endorse Biden. It would be some seriously tragic irony if Bloomberg’s stubborn refusal to step aside resulted in Sanders coming out on top.
James E Powell
I already voted for Warren and it will be interesting if a rise by Biden will cause her support to collapse. Cf. Kerry in 2004. If it’s Biden, I’d like to see Harris on the ticket.
Kelly
My heart is set on Warren. If it’s Biden I want Biden/Stacey Abrams.
Immanentize
@E.: There is no reason not to vote for Warren. It will increase her power at a contested convention.
Barbara
@Immanentize: Well, it might not be the only goal of the candidates, but as far as I am concerned it’s my only goal in voting for one of them. The choices in the GE have become too binary.
Immanentize
@Ohio Mom: sadly, no. Most deadlines are in early summer to get on the ballot, but generally one needs a party to do it for you — like the Greens? Who already have a ballot space in most states
sdhays
@Icedfire: I hope not. I don’t think Klobuchar would be a good fit for Biden’s VP.
Spanky
Still in it for Warren, since Harris is out. I’m guessing my preference will be moot by the MD primary on April 28 though.
Odds are real good that a President Biden will not finish 2 terms, so I’m paying real close attention to running mate candidates.
Edited to fix damn dates
trollhattan
@Immanentize:
It would be fascinating to see which voice she does it in: sister voice, mom voice or teacher voice. I’m objectively pro her doing this.
zhena gogolia
@Barbara:
Yeah. The country is at stake.
randy khan
They’re dropping like flies. So much for my prediction that nobody else would drop out before Super Tuesday.
On the topic of Gabbard, my guess is that a third party run would get her even less attention than she’s getting now in the primaries. She might want to be a spoiler, but probably 90% of her rapidly-diminishing votes are people who won’t vote in the general anyway.
janesays
@Ohio Mom: Tulsi Gabbard won’t be a factor even if she runs third party this year. A lot of the people who voted for Stein in 2016 did so because they were morons who hated Clinton but were fairly confident there was no real chance Trump would actually be elected president.
Almost anybody who would vote for Tulsi in November is somebody who probably wouldn’t have voted for the Democratic nominee anyway.
Bloomberg running third party scares me a lot more than Tulsi, though I’m inclined to think he won’t do that given how much he hates Trump and the fact that he knows running as an independent would very likely get Trump re-elected.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@zhena gogolia: Me too.
trollhattan
@Spanky:
April 38 primary might have been a bit of a party slipup WRT turnout.
different-church-lady
@Victor Matheson: Things I don’t want to know for $600, Alex.
Immanentize
@Barbara: I don’t feel that way. If it is a contested convention, and Bernie and or Biden have lots of delegates, but not a majority, and either or both stumble — I want Warren with some power to help make good decisions.
ByRookorbyCrook
Surprised she dropped today. Election eve endorsement won’t shift anything, but I gather her internals must have looked bleak for tomorrow. Her funding had that spike after her debate performance, but I would imagine if Buttigieg donors were jumping on New Joe-mentum, Klobuchar’s were too. Shame that we are winnowing down to the 3 OWG and SPW. I imagine tomorrow will prove to be motivating to bringing this down to Uncle Joe vs BS that the media wants. I hope there is a positive upset tomorrow or at least an major Bloomberg embarrassment like when Rudy entered late into the GOP field in 2012.
trollhattan
@James E Powell:
Our final Ca household primary vote tally was two Warren one Mayor Pete. Without revealing any identifications, I was not the one frustrated by last night’s announcement.
Tomorrow promises to be an interesting one. Texas has me very curious.
different-church-lady
@Ohio Mom: One can ratfuck an election at any time.
Tom Q
@zhena gogolia: Since “sticking it to the man” is Sanders’ only guiding principle, there’s no way he’d pick a party-healing running mate. He’d go with someone like Nina Turner.
Eljai
If you would love to vote for Elizabeth Warren, then vote for Warren. The media is selling a narrative. Tuesday will reset the race again, so don’t fall for the fear mongering. Mayor Pete and Klobuchar were taking voters from both EWarren and Biden. Few will switch to Sanders. EWarren is still competitive and has the resources to stay in the race. Elizabeth Warren is popular with professionals and suburbans who are not excited about Biden or enamored of Bernie. So, If you live in a district that includes those demogragphics, especially in California and Texas, and you want to vote for Warren, then vote for her. People think she’s aiming to be VP. She’s not. It’s about leverage at the convention on these issues: 1. Prosecutions for Trump era crime; 2. Ending the filibuster if we get a senate majority so we can deliver on our promises; 3. Judicial reform and expanding the Court; and 4. Race-aware policy. I will add a 5th reason. We don’t yet know if Biden’s win in SC is sustainable and it doesn’t look like Bernie is expanding the base. Wouldn’t it be nice to have a Plan E still in place?
Baud
@different-church-lady:
See Comey.
different-church-lady
@Baud: Things I don’t want to see for $800, Alex.
Immanentize
What if Buttigieg, like Castro, endorses Warren?
J.
Sigh. All of my candidates are no longer running, and I hate that my only choices are going to be a bunch of cranky white septuagenarians. I will vote for whomever the Dems nominate, but I am so disappointed by where we are at.
Ohio Mom
Okay, proving I am not actually able to remain calm for long periods: is the whole Burisma/Hunter Biden thing going to dent or even tank Joe? It’s garbage but there are a lot of low information voters.
Anonymous At Work
I had previously stated that Klobouchar would last exactly one day longer than Mayor Pete, no more and no less. Because, man, they hated each other, or at least she did him.
germy
Bad news for Rachel Dratch.
geg6
I think she just wanted to last longer than Pete. :-) But good on her for being a good team player just like Pete. Word is he is planning on endorsing Biden and so is Amy, so the party is coming together. Glad to see it even though Biden was far down my list when this all started. But I did send him a donation last week, so I was pretty sure this was how it was going to play out. I love Warren and really wanted it to be her, but I can live with Joe pretty easily. Looks like my PA primary vote on April 28 will be an easy choice.
Immanentize
@Ohio Mom: I just read Senator Johnson is pushing for Hunter Biden investigation subpoenas. Of course that is going to happen in some fashion. They each are going to get slimed if they prevail.
janesays
@Kelly: I love Abrams, but I don’t think she’s ready to step into the White House on Day One if it’s needed. And with candidates as old as Biden and Sanders, who they pick as VP is extra-important, because there’s a much greater chance that they’ll need to learn how to be president on a moment’s notice than is normally the case.
Abrams served as a state representative, which was a part-time job that paid around $17,000 per year. That’s the extent of her experience in government office. She has even less relevant experience than Pete Buttigieg.
I hope I one day get to see Ms. Abrams standing in front of the Capitol in late January taking the presidential oath of office, but that day is probably at least 10-15 years away. I love her passion and commitment, but she needs to do more in the meantime to prepare for the job.
I like the sound of a Biden-Harris ticket very much right now. If I had to bet on it, I’d say that’s who he picks if he winds up winning the nomination.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@different-church-lady: It’s either that or Baud in his natural state.
catclub
This is starting to look a whole lot different than the GOP clusterfuck in 2016 that resulted in Trump. I need to go back and see who was still in at that time.
mrmoshpotato
@Baud: Oh, we know. ???
Cacti
Or Cornell West. Or comrade Tulski Gabbard.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Ohio Mom: I’m one to usually point out that fighting fire with fire doesn’t work for us because Ds and Rs are appealing to different constituencies, but somebody on the Dem side needs to start making noise about the Large Adult Grifters. I nominate Sherrod Brown, he can pull off that “are you fucking kidding me?” attitude. Brian Schatz is also very good on twitter.
satby
Klobuchar brings nothing to the table as VP, really, and has less delegate clout that Buttigieg did. And I’m betting Buttigieg won’t be asked to be Biden’s VP either. Strongly betting Harris at this point. If she’s still in the running May 5th, I’ll get to vote for Warren then unless Biden needs the boost going into the convention.
mrmoshpotato
@janesays: I’m voting for Warren in two weeks if she’s still in. I’m sick of the media trying to bury her.
Icedfire
@sdhays: She would be Biden’s Tim Kaine, adding literally nothing substantive policywise to the ticket, and while having a woman on the ticket is an unquestionable positive I would much prefer to see someone like Harris or Abrams if that’ll be what I vote for in November.
I still intend to vote for Warren tomorrow here in MN, hoping with the candidate turmoil of the last 24 hours that both she and Biden can at minimum exceed 15%
Immanentize
did anyone see Cole’s tweet?
So perfect.
piratedan
@Anonymous At Work: I could see why, I look at all of the work that she has put into being a Senator and getting legislation implemented and to see him step into her lane and effectively get more votes than her had to have been maddening… I understand the novelty of a new voice and the POV of his orientation being attention getting, but Klobuchar had actually DONE things and she was as effectively erased from the narrative as Warren has been from the Progressive side of the equation.
Eljai
@J.: I’m sorry. It’s a heartbreaking process. Take care of yourself so that you can stay engaged for the long haul. We’re all in this together. Please know that your candidates contributed in important ways (unless you were talking about John Delaney). :)
Another Scott
@Anonymous At Work: :-) But, realistically, I think it was a few things:
There’s still a long way to go though. Liz has my vote tomorrow.
Cheers,
Scott.
zhena gogolia
@J.
My candidate has been out for quite a while. But we have to win this one. So much is at stake, especially for people other than the comfortable white middle class.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Cacti: Cornell’s and interesting idea, but he’ll go with Nina Turner if he wins the nomination.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Victor Matheson:
Well, he would have clothes on, for a change.
satby
@Immanentize: Buttigieg’s issues positions were very close to Warren’s so he could; but he left because he was splitting the moderate votes and it’s time to start consolidating. Especially if we don’t want the top of the ticket dragging down a blue wave.
zhena gogolia
@Ohio Mom:
It doesn’t matter who it is, they’ll find something. We have to swamp them.
I mentioned to my husband this morning how we’d suddenly be hearing about Hunter Biden now after a long silence. The NYT even published a puff piece about his art projects.
Bill Arnold
Since open thread,
Stop Touching Your Face! (Tara Parker-Pope, March 2, 2020) (NYTimes, appears to be not paywalled)
The article does not provide any suggestions for training away face touching; I’m having success with a smelly-finger approach after a couple of days, using “Nexcare Skin Crack Care” daubed on thumbnails, though anything that (a) smells bad, (b) persists and (c) is not harmful would work fine.
Immanentize
@satby: I was mostly leg pulling, but I don’t think it would be absolutely an impossible thing.
different-church-lady
@Cacti: Let’s just go with Raul Castro and get it over with.
zhena gogolia
MICHAEL BENNET
CORNEL WEST
PETER STRZOK
AMY KLOBUCHAR
E.
I too would love a Biden-Harris ticket but he needs to win the blue-ish states Clinton lost and I’m not sure Harris does that for him.
Leto
@Immanentize: He’s already endorsed Biden. Just heard it on the wireless on the way here to PT.
Immanentize
@different-church-lady: Bernie is OK with that.
different-church-lady
@Bill Arnold: We’re all going to die, so fuck the fucking NYT.
zhena gogolia
@Bill Arnold:
Oh, God today in class I had one person in a face mask, although she removed it halfway through, and several others (guys) just coughing and sneezing out into the air. I actually stopped and asked them to use their elbows.
Immanentize
@zhena gogolia: Are they all Lovers?!
schrodingers_cat
Harry Reid endorsed Biden just now.
Immanentize
@Leto: The wireless. You crack me up.
satby
@Leto: I would have expected that!
Adam L Silverman
@Ohio Mom: I don’t know.
janesays
@Eljai: Warren is hand’s down the best candidate left in the field, and I think that’s been true for some time. I was always a supporter of hers.
But let’s keep it real. No candidate who finished 3rd, 4th, 4th, and 5th in the first four contests has ever won the nomination. And there’s no reason to believe that’s going to change this year, especially when you look at all of the polls in the upcoming states. It’s one thing for a few of the polls to be off, but it’s never been the case that literally ALL of them are wrong. For her to make a comeback now, literally ALL of the polls would have to be wrong about tomorrow’s states. Not seeing it.
I may or may not vote for Warren next week, depending on how things turn out tomorrow and in coming days. If I don’t vote for her, I’ll be voting for Biden. But if I do vote for her, I know I’ll be doing so simply as a symbolic gesture that won’t change the fact that she is not going to be the Democratic nominee this year. If she loses Massachusetts tomorrow – and there’s a reasonably decent chance she will – it really is over. I’m glad she’s sticking around for at least one more day, because I think her continued presence in the race helps Biden way more than Bernie. I would love to see her deny Bernie the chance to take Massachusetts, which I’m fairly certain he would if she were to drop out today. But whatever happens tomorrow, it’s hard to envision any realistic path for her to the nomination right now.
schrodingers_cat
@Cacti: Nope one of the Chapo or the Jacobin guys.
zhena gogolia
@Immanentize:
Probably, but more importantly they have names that get misspelled all the time on here.
I have a first name that can be spelled two different ways, and I don’t usually mind when random people misspell it, but I keep getting messages from an administrator who’s known me for 30 years and he ALWAYS misspells it.
different-church-lady
@schrodingers_cat: Oh, jeez, the fix is really in now.
Immanentize
@schrodingers_cat:
Well that’s a dollar late.
the Conster
@Ohio Mom:
If Sanders is the nominee, wait until they start dumping all the oppo on Crooked Jane and her propensity for spending other people’s money. Remember that bank fraud investigation? Barr’s DOJ recently hired her nemesis from VT – the guy who sniffed out from the public records how sketchy that whole thing was and got it escalated up to the Obama DOJ. The Trump DOJ *closed* the FBI investigation and shut down the grand jury that had been taking testimony for over a year, the week of the blue wave. Of course, only Jeff Weaver, long time Sanders insider has ever confirmed this. The DOJ has neither confirmed nor denied it so all I can see is that they let Jane off the hook as a quid pro quo for Bernie to ratfuck the Dem primary, AGAIN.
zhena gogolia
@Bill Arnold:
I’m glad there aren’t any mischievous BJ-ers on here to offer fanciful suggestions.
Ruckus
@janesays:
I agree on Abrams. I like her a lot, I think she is a natural leader and smart. I think that she could fill the shoes but would be better with some more seasoning. I hope to see her sitting behind the president’s desk one day. I also like Harris and would like to see her there as well. But right now I’d like Warren. I don’t think Biden is bad, as much as just too old. But he’s miles better than BS and millions of miles better than the shitgibbon.
neldob
Look! Another outrage:
“Court Rules Congress Cannot Sue to Force Executive Branch Officials to Testify – An appeals court dismissed a lawsuit brought by the House Judiciary Committee against President Trump’s former White House counsel, Donald F. McGahn II.” from the NYT Feb 28.
Is this another case of Garland type thing? When too late we wish we had protested louder … What to do?
Adam L Silverman
@trollhattan: How about this one:
rikyrah
@Adam L Silverman:
BWA HA HA HA HA HA AHAH A
Immanentize
@janesays: Vote for who you want to for whatever reason you choose.
schrodingers_cat
I made you a poll and did not eated it.
satby
@E.: Sure she does. Everyone of our top candidates polled against Trump won. And women and African Americans would like to see themselves represented, as we should be.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Immanentize: I think Leto’s older than he’s been letting on.
rikyrah
@zhena gogolia:
I know that’s right.
Immanentize
@zhena gogolia: I knew that. I have appreciated your occasional reminders. This is one reason I could never run for office. No one would be able to pronounce my name and fewer would spell it correctly.
kindness
The moderates don’t want Bernie. Gee….I wonder why (BernieBros)?
The only ones left I am offended by is Bloomberg. I could pretty happily vote for Bernie, Biden or Warren in the General. I’ll be voting Warren tomorrow here in CA.
janesays
@Mike in NC: No, he shouldn’t. Klobuchar is fine, but she doesn’t add anything to a ticket that he’s at the top of. He’ll need somebody with a little more progressive leaning, and it can’t be a white guy. I’m calling it for Kamala Harris right now.
zhena gogolia
@Immanentize:
One reason I liked Amy was having a cute Slavic name in the mix. It means “hat-maker.”
lee
I voted for Warren in Texas. I’ve come to grips that Biden will probably be the nominee and with that he will probably give another ‘we have to look forward not backwards’ speech and let the criminality of the last 4 years go unpunished.
My only hope is that he picks Harris for his AG and she tells him to STFU and sharpens her knives.
Immanentize
@?BillinGlendaleCA: BTW thanks for the Lipps in the last thread.
MazeDancer
Go get ’em Joe!
NEW post-SC poll from @MorningConsult:
Sanders: 29% (-3)
Biden: 26% (+7)
Bloomberg: 17% (-1)
Warren: 11%
Buttigieg: 10% (-1)
Klobuchar: 3% (-1)
Spider-Dan
@Adam L Silverman: This was pretty much the last domino that needed to fall for Tulsi. Now she’ll say that the corrupt Democrats are dropping out (while Warren stays in, natch) to rig the primary against Bernie.
JPL
@janesays: Thank you. That is also my question about Stacey. Now she would do would great in a debate against Pence or Haley.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Mallard Filmore
Now that my primary vote will not make a difference, I will go with my heart and Warren.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I wonder who Cunningham wants on the top of the ticket.
catclub
My family laughed at me for having read the posters a couple of years ago, at work, that say ‘sneeze into your elbow.’ They find other things to laugh at, now.
Immanentize
@zhena gogolia:
The literal names are a good link to the past.
I always have loved the German word for glove: handschuh. Cracks me up every time I ponder it.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Immanentize: You’re welcome, it was funky.
Hoodie
@satby: Harris is a possibility, but the dem nominee will win CA no matter who is the running mate. She would be a great cabinet choice, however. I still think Val Demings would be an inspired choice. 27 years, from beat cop to chief of the Orlando PD for 5 years before she ran for Congress. More executive experience than Abrams, and Florida would be a huge get. Otherwise, go with someone who could help in AZ.
Adam L Silverman
@the Conster: Her nemesis from Vermont is Joe DiGenova and Victoria Toensing’s son.
zhena gogolia
@Hoodie:
I’d be happy with her. She was stellar throughout the impeachment.
E.
@satby: But what does Harris bring to FL or WI (for example) that Clinton didn’t have? Clinton had very strong African American support, possibly even better than Harris, and there isn’t much daylight between their policies. I say this as someone who would reverse course from Warren to Biden if I knew he was picking Harris. Harris was my first choice.
Adam L Silverman
@neldob: This was simply the luck of the 3 judge draw at the DC appellate court. It will be appealed to the entire DC Circuit Court of Appeals (en band), where it will be overturned. The question then is what, if anything, the Supreme Court does.
hueyplong
In the tiny window that the afternoon of March 2, 2020, Rep. Clyburn looks like a Democratic kingmaker.
Maybe he’s the one who should pick Biden’s running mate (says the poster who always wanted Kamala Harris).
zhena gogolia
White & Gold Purgatorian
@Barbara: Yes, exactly. I vote for the best candidate who can win. Because the perfect candidate who loses, loses everything.
Chyron HR
@Adam L Silverman:
And? Biden’s nemesis is Rudy fucking Giuliani but that doesn’t mean the smears aren’t going to work.
Baud
Today is Endorsement Day.
C Stars
@Cacti: Here in Berzerkeley I’ve seen like three cars sporting Bernie AND Tulsi bumper stickers. Republican ratfuckers, or dumbass CA hippies hopelessly mired in their “stick it to the man” mudpits? I dunno…
And FWIW I don’t have any problem with hippies, just regret the politically myopic/personally entitled ones we get around here.
Immanentize
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Just after I turned 18 I got a job bartending at a fancy restaurant that also had a live music club side. The last days of disco…. I had a small case of unrequited regarding a woman who sang that song for the local cover band, Four O’Clock Collection.
FlyingToaster
@kindness:
The BernieBros are merely symptomatic of what’s wrong over there. From what I can tell, all of Bernie’s surrogates are effing toxic.
I went back to people I know from Vermont, and they’re all clear that Wilmer’s a jackass, and they only vote for him to keep the Republican’s sacrificial lamb out of that Senate seat. And he’s quite representative of the Green Mountain holier-than-thou class.
Since I’m not holier than anybody, I’m disinclined to preach at anyone; and I sure as hell ain’t gonna listen to them preach.
How I’ll vote: tomorrow for Warren; in November for whoever the fuck has a D after their name.
bemused
@zhena gogolia:
I’d start giving your classes handouts with photos of the bread experiment on washing hands an elementary school teacher did with students. If the kids can understand and get the message, maybe clueless adults will too.
zhena gogolia
The only people in my church I’ve heard express political preferences are all for Sanders. I have to just bite my tongue. It’s depressing. But we’re a diverse congregation and these people are all white. I haven’t heard anything specific from people of color.
janesays
@J.: I never lump in Warren with the three old white dudes, but I did just realize that as of this moment, there is precisely only one candidate left in the race who is under the age of 70. And that person is a troll.
oldgold
satby
@lee: they need crossover Independent voters so they won’t make a big deal about it, but I bet once the election is called for the Democrats the investigation will be getting started on all the various criminal acts committed by Trump, his family, and his enablers. And in his inimitable stupid style, Trump will try to make protecting his criminality part of the reason for voting for him to his MAGAts. Making the best case for a Democratic sweep in November for us.
Adam L Silverman
@Chyron HR: That was sort of my point. DiGenova and Toensing are working with Giuliani. Anything and everything their son ferreted out Jane Sanders financial dealings has already been passed along to his folks and from them to Rudy and from Rudy to the President and the campaign surrogates. And from the President to his senatorial surrogates like Senator Graham.
Immanentize
@Hoodie: I agree about Harris and CA. Not sold on Demming yet. She doesn’t bring a lot to the table yet either. And might fire up the Florida Trumpanzees too much.
zhena gogolia
@FlyingToaster:
I don’t know many people who live(d) in Vermont, but the ones I know all hate him.
Another Scott
Science vs the Coronavirus – https://www.sciencemag.org/tags/coronavirus
Cheers,
Scott.
Leto
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Tippycanoe and Biden too! It’s what I’ve always said!
A Ghost To Most
I love the smell of burning BS in the morning. It smells like victory.
satby
@E.: Last time people took for granted Hillary would win. No one takes anything for granted any more.
different-church-lady
Little by little my anxiety units are moving from “OMG WE’RE DOOMED” to “Please, Joe, don’t fuck this up.”
mrmoshpotato
@Immanentize:
YES! That last debate was a shitshow.
Kelly
@janesays: Yeah Abrams may not be ready this year. If Bloomberg is really serious about beating Trump he’d give her Fair Fight organization and any other voter turnout orgs several hundred million $.
mad citizen
I wonder why the Morning Consult poll adds to 96%? The one before it adds to 95%. Can’t they normalize it to 100%?
Immanentize
@Adam L Silverman:
Autocorrect got you — “en banc” not “en band” — although “The en Banc Band” would be a good name.
Major Major Major Major
Guess who has a big rally in Dallas today!
catclub
Also OT: Whining to the refs works for Trump: “The economy is so good we desperately need a rate cut to keep it afloat.”
different-church-lady
@zhena gogolia: Bernie could have tweaked a few things and have it already wrapped up, with the “establishment” behind him. But no, Bernie’s gotta Bernie.
Immanentize
@hueyplong: He has already suggested that he (Clyburn) is going to get his fingers deep into the Biden campaign pie.
lee
@satby: I’m all for that during the election. IIRC, Obama said that after he was elected. My fear is Biden will do the same and not appoint an aggressive AG.
different-church-lady
@Immanentize: Seriously, are we not doing “phrasing” anymore?
janesays
@catclub:
As of March 2, 2016, the GOP primaries had five candidates still running…
Ben Carson (withdrew on March 4th), Marco Rubio (withdrew March 15th), Ted Cruz (withdrew May 3rd), John Kasich (withdrew May 4th), and Trump.
But Trump was already running away with the nomination at this point – he won 3 of the first 4 states, and his delegate lead was massive: he had 82 at that point, and Cruz was in second with only 17. He also had won 33% of the popular vote, with Cruz trailing at 21% of the popular vote. The race was already over before Super Tuesday, even though the GOP establishment desperately didn’t want him to be the nominee at the time.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Immanentize: I was wondering if the judges on the appeals court had their own garage band.
JPL
@Baud: And Bernie is shittin all over himself. sad
catclub
This is another time when inevitability isn’t. Biden was being written off after the NH primary, also Nevada.
Times change. Fast.
Now its endorsement day.
satby
@Major Major Major Major: so Klobuchar and Pete will be at Biden’s rally as a sign of Democratic party unity? Nice!
Mary G
I want a woman so much, but I don’t see EW pulling ahead, which is a testament to the misogyny of America even on the left. VP doesn’t feel good enough. Biden is far from ideal, but I will change my contribution to him after tomorrow. He is miles above Sanders and Twitler.
Adam L Silverman
@Immanentize: Honestly I doubt that was autocorrect. More like my genetic predisposition to make random typos and misspellings and not catching them.
Immanentize
@different-church-lady: I always try to do phrasing!
different-church-lady
@JPL: It’s almost as if the guy never realized he’d need friends in the party he was trying to get nominated by.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@satby: Probably as far away from each other on the stage as possible.
JPL
@satby: fun. Icing on the cake would be if Harris went also.
Chyron HR
It’s mildly interesting that nobody speculating on VP optics is suggesting an African-American man.
Pros:
– Obama/Biden vibes
– Minority representation
– Not emasculating to male voters
Cons:
– Possibly extremely emasculating to male voters if the guys on 4chan raving about “cucks” are any indication.
Bill Arnold
@Chyron HR:
The smears against Biden are tired and played out.[1]. The Democrats need to flood the narrative spaces looted by lazy MSM people with provably-true anti-Trump smears..
[1] Being an optimist here, work with it.
Immanentize
@?BillinGlendaleCA: The law would be less of a ass if they did.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman:
satby
@Mary G: as far as I’m concerned, we elected a woman, who was prevented from taking her rightful seat. The next woman who gets elected will be the second, but the first to serve.
And I would get the hugest kick out of a President Biden naming both former President Obama AND SoS Hillary Clinton to the expanded Supreme Court with the ratification of a Democratic majority Senate. May as well dream big dreams.
trollhattan
@catclub:
You can smell the flopsweat from here. Trump’s about where Bush the Lesser was a the end of term 2; sucks to be Donny right now.
Three Coronavirus cases reported in Santa Clara County. Howdy, Silicon Valley.
Guess that once reliable test kits are stocked widely we’ll learn it’s been established a month or longer across the country.
satby
@Chyron HR: Booker is from the same region as Biden.
Brachiator
@Chyron HR:
Not emasculating to male voters?
Do the Democrats really have to go after the immature man child vote?
Barbara
@Immanentize: I am not trying to persuade you of anything, but I find it incomprehensible that EW could be the victor in a contested convention. Obviously, voting is not over, but she has even less actual support from voters than Klobuchar and Buttigieg do at this point. I do not wish for a contested convention. I don’t think that would be a victory of any kind even if, as an a priori matter, I preferred the candidate who was nominated through that process.
Dorothy A. Winsor
OT, but Seattle area health officials announced 3 more deaths, bringing the US total to 5.
rikyrah
oldgold
Now 6 deaths being reported by Washington state as a consequence of Coronavirus.
Anonymous At Work
@piratedan: Also, Pete struck me as a triangulated series of Powerpoint slides.
Immanentize
@Adam L Silverman:
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
janesays
@E.: If you’re talking about the three Upper Midwest/Rustbelt states that made Trump president (PA, MI, WI), no running mate is going to be a bigger asset to the ticket than Biden himself.
Immanentize
@satby: Man, Jersey ain’t nothin like Delaware….
Bill Arnold
@different-church-lady:
Fine. For the NYTimes haters, from Australia,
Worried about coronavirus? Learn to stop touching your face (Liam Mannix, February 28, 2020)
Another Scott
@Bill Arnold: Rudy and Barr’s Ukraine adventure seems to have petered out. Barr is trying to keep a low profile to save his skin. I have no doubt that the GOP will try to come up with something new, but I think the Bursima stuff is over.
(They know they risk folks in Ukraine digging up more dirt on Rudy, also too.)
Cheers,
Scott.
Immanentize
@Barbara: The odds are not that Biden will now win, but rather no one will now win. That could change… I would like Warren in the mix should it not change
Hoodie
@janesays: Yeah, I don’t think Biden needs a lot of help in the upper midwest. Help in FL, NC, VA, AZ, NV, CO, etc. would be more valuable.
satby
@Immanentize: Region, not state. I like Booker, but he doesn’t add much to the ticket compared to Harris.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Immanentize: You’ll be hearing from Sir Paul’s attorneys.
janesays
@lee: I’d actually prefer to see Harris as VP with Adam Schiff as Attorney General.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@janesays: Yup, Joey from Scranton.
Immanentize
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I am one!
ETA, now I probably actually will be hearing from them.
debbie
@Baud:
I would like to hear her voice at every debate.
BroD
@janesays: Yep, I’d supported Warren but I’m all in for Joe now.
janesays
@Spider-Dan: I think we pay way more attention to Tulsi Gabbard here than almost anybody anywhere else does.
I’d be willing to bet that 99% of the country has no idea who she is, much less that she’s still (technically) a Democratic presidential candidate in the primaries.
She really is a nobody who will have no influence on anything with anyone anywhere. Prior to his withdrawal a few weeks ago, she was just barely more relevant than Deval Patrick.
Served
My ideal outcome now is a Biden win, with his adoption of a few key Warren policies.
Immanentize
@janesays: She is particularly in the no one category as, I think, she announced she will not run for re-election in HI?
Yutsano
@rikyrah: PLEASE tell me this means we have a shot at taking Lindsey out of Congress???
Marcopolo
@oldgold:Well, you introduce COVID-19 to an old folks home and that is pretty much the outcome you’d expect. I suspect it will get worse. There were at least 70 residents.
I am curious, though, has there been any reporting at all about who the ground zero case for the Washington State infections is? I suppose by now it is possible they have made a full recovery & maybe had such a mild case they never knew they had it.
gene108
@satby:
Neighboring states. And these aren’t big states. So it’s a lot closer than just same region.
MazeDancer
Not sure how many times I have say this, but Black Women are the backbone of the Democratic Party.
There is no winning the nom or the general without them.
They get excited, we win.
Black Women have spoken. They want Joe.
All I need to know.
ETA: Of course, the Veep will be Kamala Harris. He’ll announce her early. They will be unstoppable.
hueyplong
Let’s face it, a couple of weeks of media promotion of Bloomberg as the only thing standing between Bernie and the nomination is making Bidenistas of us all.
different-church-lady
Ah, finally something at LMG I can agree with:
Barbara
@Marcopolo: They sequenced the DNA of the virus and it is the same as someone who returned from China six weeks ago. That is what I read. That doesn’t mean that it was THAT person who was patient zero. The fact that CDC has been incomprehensibly restrictive about who gets tested means that we will likely NEVER know who patient zero was on Washington State. Most likely, however, it was someone who did not have serious symptoms.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Marcopolo:
I’d guess there are a lot of milder cases walking around, that no one questioned until the disease slipped in among a vulnerable population and started killing people.
janesays
@Hoodie: I don’t think picking a running mate on the basis of their home state is really a thing anymore. Or at least, I think it’s pretty far down the list of reasons why you pick a particular person. Harris is a younger African-American woman that will appeal to progressives in ways that Biden won’t. I think that’s all that’s needed. I think she’ll be helpful in battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Biden doesn’t need much help with Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Mnemosyne
@Eljai:
I hope she holds out for Secretary of the Treasury Elizabeth Warren, but maybe it’s just me. ?
gene108
@Immanentize:
New Jersey is really 2 states rolled into one. Southern New Jersey is much closer culturally* to Philly and the ‘burbs, and Delaware.
North Jersey is a very crowded place, and I’ll leave it at that.
* The cultural divide is were you raised to root for Philly sports teams or NY sports teams, and maybe the NJ Devils.
germy
@Another Scott:
MazeDancer
Trump is going to have replace Pence with Haley. But that is part of Pence falling at coronavirus plan,
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Yutsano: at the very least, I think about Harrison providing down-ticket support like O’Rourke did , and he’s a very young man (for politics) in a possibly changing state, building a name and networks for the future
Barbara
@janesays: Gabbard has had poll workers at my farmers’ market for months. I talked to one of them and he assured me that if Gabbard were on the ballot, Virginia has a sore loser provision that will prevent her from running as an independent. Don’t know if that means she couldn’t be nominated by Greens. I didn’t care, I signed to let her on the ballot because I didn’t think she was going anywhere and if it keeps her off the ballot in November, so much the better.
jk
The smears against Biden are effective because he’s an inarticulate, incoherent dummy who doesn’t know how the Hell to explain himself and go on offense. If he’s the nominee, his campaign will be a clusterfucking trainwreck and Trump will wipe the floor with him. Republican opposition researchers are salivating to run against someone as clueless and buffoonish as Uncle Joe.
Betty Cracker
@Immanentize:
That’s my understanding too. There’s a lot of drape-measuring for presumptive President Biden around here. It seems as premature as the Sanders triumphalism that so marred my Twitter user experience last week.
debbie
@Cacti:
A Sanders-West ticket would fare worse than McGovern-Eagleton.
Another Scott
@oldgold:
WHO Situation Report #41 (7 page .pdf)
It being in a nursing home in Washington is a very bad sign. :-(
Cheers,
Scott.
germy
@Betty Cracker:
The triumphalism began before a single vote was cast…
geg6
@Immanentize:
Dude, my first and last name consist of exactly eight letters and in no way are unusual names. But someone misspells it pretty much every day. People just can’t spell, is all. Doesn’t matter what your name is.
Marcopolo
@rikyrah:Yes, but… The total population of S Carolina increased by ~15% from 2008 to 2020 (I’d assume the voting pop increased similarly). The vote total from 2008 to 2020 increase was only ~1.2% so the 2008 vote was still most likely higher on a percentage of voters to turnout basis.
Another Scott
@germy: Saw that. AFAIK, it’s gone over like a lead balloon.
We’ll see.
Cheers,
Scott.
Hildebrand
@zhena gogolia: I am a pastor of an all black Lutheran church in Detroit – it’s Biden or Bloomberg (though the Bloomberg curious were more vocal before Warren thrashed him in the debate). Bernie is simply not an option.
trollhattan
@jk:
Yeah, the whole Hunter Biden-Ukraine thing was a misdirect because Trump is so adroit at distracting us with inverse logic. {eyeroll}
schrodingers_cat
@rikyrah: So BS was right, he increased the turnout, but it was against him!
germy
@Another Scott: He just wants his boss to see that he’s still trying.
the Conster
@Adam L Silverman:
yes, I know. Everything is in place to make Crooked Jane and her lifelong grift of spending other people’s money a HUGE campaign issu, since Bernie wants to raise everyone’s taxes for free stuff, while his wife can’t be trusted with the silverware.
pajaro
I really, really hope Warren stays in. She is an easy second choice for suppporters of either of the two old white guys. And the two white guys are, in fact, really really old. I’m not rooting for any illness, but it could happen, to either of the front-runners, and she is the one person who could credibly come off the bench.
JMG
The trend so far is that the Dem primary electorate has been larger in raw total terms AND percentage of voting pop than 2016, but only the former compared to 2008.
Served
Bibi wins big
https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1234572978937122816
clay
@Another Scott: I’ve no doubt Trump will keep talking about Hunter Biden and “the Ukraine” and “the server” at his rallies. And Fox and Breitbart and all of the scum will lap it up.
But I think (and hope) that the MSM will no longer bite on that, since it is now well-documented bullshit. Pelosi and Schiff did a good thing in inoculating Biden from this type of but her emailz non-story.
Marcopolo
@Barbara:Seeing as how the minor parties (Greens, Libertarians, Constitutionalists) are all in the midst of their own nominating contests I don’t see how Gabbard could just jump ship from the D primary contest to one of theirs. Between that and getting a ballot slot in 50 states for the general I am thinking that her opportunity to run as an independent has pretty much slipped away. I mean, she could run as a write in but I don’t think most folks who’d support her in the general in the first place are dedicated enough to go to all that trouble. They’d just stay home instead.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@janesays: Keep in mind, Harris is also South Asian.
debbie
@satby:
I live for that day.
Mnemosyne
@janesays:
I want Harris to be VP and Schiff to replace her as senator. There’s zero chance that his House seat would go to a Republican, so it would be win-win for all of us.
Kent
Biden probably figures he can win the upper midwest on his own: PA, WI, and MI. That leaves a VP to help with FL/GA or perhaps AZ. My own personal pick would be someone like Val Demings who is seriously badass and I think a very good match with Biden in terms of style. I don’t know if she has enough following to help win FL though. She has an amazing life story and resume that would resonate well in FL and GA I expect.
chopper
@trollhattan:
lousy Smarch weather!
Mnemosyne
@Kent:
Demings is also 70. We need someone in her 50s or early 60s at most. That’s why people want Harris or Stacey Abrams.
Marcopolo
And here I would think that 100% of the patients would be younger than 201. I guess they live a long time in China.
Bill Arnold
@jk:
So, who is your preferred candidate?
And are you thinking much about anti-Republican lines of attack?
pamelabrown53
@zhena gogolia:
Maybe the reason you’ve only heard from the Wilmer supporters as they’re more likely to be zealots. Others keep their opinions to themselves.
You seem really on edge. Hope you can find a way to calm yourself, be more centered.
Cacti
@jk: Da comrade. The candidate the Rs truly fear is the one who they spent the past 5 years holding their fire against. The one who in his first prime time interview, couldn’t restrain himself from blowing kisses at Fidel Castro. The one who hasn’t moved any of his policy priorities an inch during 30 years in Congress.
Yep. It’s the one who has a 50/50 chance of being dead in 3-years from another coronary event, who they truly fear.
germy
chopper
@different-church-lady:
heh.
laura
@catclub: until and unless someone with some mad economic skills can explain why it wouldn’t work or help, I’m going to take every opportunity to harp on the benefit of a robust unemployment insurance program to keep some income flowing and spur demand – every single dollar Will Get Spent Immediately and Locally! I understand that EW has a plan for healthcare coverage and so will limit my opinion to the work disruption side of the issue.
janesays
@Major Major Major Major: No needs to wonder – Buttigieg is endorsing Biden.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/485510-buttigieg-set-to-endorse-biden
germy
@Mnemosyne: Demings was born in 1957.
Gravenstone
@Bill Arnold:
Allow me to suggest that Johnny one-note over there doesn’t think so much as spout endless variations on”Biden bad” with no critical review of anything else, at all.
MCA1
@Hoodie: Interesting thoughts. I’d love to see Harris, in part because she was my first choice and I think Biden would be more likely than any other recent president to not seek re-election, instead passing the torch and riding into the sunset after saving the country from the scourge of Trump. She also carries a lot of gravitas as well as the happy warrior disposition, both of which are helpful.
I don’t think there’s any established causation showing VP nominees help push their running mates over the line in the VP’s home state, so choosing Demings would need to be based more on the resume than the Florida connection, I think. That said, given how close FL has been in almost every election the last 30 years, it is intriguing to wonder if she could make a difference there. I’m sure whoever wins the nom will immediately need to start looking at the electoral map and figure out a way to snatch 40 EV’s back, and grabbing 29 in one fell swoop would go a long way.
I could see a Dem candidate trying to pick someone who increases their chances in PA and MI instead, though. That would mean needing just one of IA, WI, AZ, or NC and holding serve in other states Clinton won in order to win the EC, and not worrying about fickle Florida.
For what it’s worth, here’s the math and the Trump ’16 states likely to “matter” in this election as D’s look at paths to the White House: 306-232 (if you reverse the faithless electors) or 304-227; means D candidate needs to move 38 or 39 electoral votes.
Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan – famously, of course, Clinton lost by under 1% in each. 10, 20 and 16 EV’s, respectively. I feel like Wisconsin’s drifting further rightward into Trumplandia for some reason and might be lost for another cycle or longer, but the other two feel very gettable. Not sure which sort of VP candidate could help get out the vote in those states.
Florida – 1.2% to swing blue, 29 EV’s.
North Carolina, Arizona – Clinton lost these by 3.5% each, and they’ve been becoming more and more purple every year. McSally and now Tillis are in deep trouble in Senate races so turnout is likely to be high. The psychological cost to the GOP of losing either of these states in a presidential race would be really high. AZ’s selected a Dem ONCE since Truman and it’s almost certainly going to carry a few more EV’s in 2024 and beyond.
Georgia – 16 EV’s. Similar purpling trend; when’s the tipping point? Clinton lost by 5 here. I could see Biden’s appeal to both AA voters and transplanted upper middle class Yankees making a difference here even though Cult ’45 is strong outside of greater Atlanta.
Iowa – 6 EV’s. Don’t know if it’s really in play, given Drumpf’s 10 point win there in ’16, but it used to be a reasonably bluish state, Dems want to turn out the vote to displace Ernst, and a Dem nominee could make some serious headway just talking about farm bankruptcies and disastrous China trade relations.
Texas – the holy grail for Democratic presidential politics. Le jeu est termine as soon as any GOP’er loses Texas. Note that Clinton was closer to winning here than she was Iowa.
Cacti
Bernie’s prediction is coming true. He has been able to unite the Democratic Party.
Just not in the way he thought.
germy
@Cacti: Wouldn’t they fear his VP pick, who I assume would be much younger and more robust?
Jay
As it’s an open thread:
Oh look, quelle suprise!
Meanwhile, in Ildib, in response to the SAA and the IRGC killings of 22 Turkish Soldiers, Turkey is pounding the SAA and IRGC hard,
and HST has launched a counteroffensive that’s captured tons upon tons of Regime “geehma” and recaptured rougly half the territory lost in the last month.
Uncle Cosmo
@jk: Do we really have to tell you to fuck off & die in a fire again, you disgusting piece of shit?
Bill Arnold
@Gravenstone:
LOL, the question, it was rhetorical. :-)
FelonyGovt
@Betty Cracker: Yes, I’m pretty nervous about California, where all indications are that, sadly, Bernie is going to win big.
A number of people I know have already voted for Pete (and a couple for Steyer) and were exploring trying to “cancel” their mailed ballots by going to re-vote in person tomorrow. But it turns out that’s illegal.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@janesays: and Bloomaparte is not
“behaved themselves”, “felt sorry for them”? he actually is making himself seem weirder and less likable with this campaign.
Jeffro
I am looking forward to Post-Super Tuesday Wednesday* more than I ever have in my life. Not that I think this thing will be completely over, but I think the momentum is pretty obvious here, and that’s a good thing.
*this might need its own nickname, like Black Friday and Super Sunday.
Imagine a relatively unified and extremely well-funded Democratic Party being able to beat on trumpov and trumpublicans for eight solid months.
debbie
@germy:
Aw, Christ, enough with the random capitalization!
Cacti
@germy: Unlikely. As s/he would almost certainly be another far left crank.
Baud
@janesays: oh wow. Interesting.
Another Scott
@Marcopolo: Yeah, I noticed that after the edit window closed.
;-D
The “1” is a superscript (for a reference), of course.
Cheers,
Scott.
Captain C
@Ohio Mom: Every time it’s brought up it can be used as a reminder that Trump fears Biden so much that he got impeached trying to gin up some BS about him (Biden), and that the Republican Senate is so corrupt, cowardly, and in the bag that they refused to call witnesses.
Martin
Ok, then. I do not relish Amy or Pete dropping out – they were both good candidates and I’d have been excited to canvas for either, we do need to get this field down to no more than 4 candidates taking significant but non-viable (<15%) of the vote.
These withdrawals are likely bad news for the probabilistic forecast for Bernie. This is likely to give vote share to either Biden, Warren, or Bloomberg, all of whom needed help getting over 15% in a number of states. Bernie will probably go up as well, but he was already over 15% in most states, so the candidates under 15% may go from 0 to something, where Bernie will go from something to probably something less, despite getting more votes.
Consider this hypothetical: Bernie gets 35% of votes, and Biden, Amy, Pete, Warren, Bloomberg, Steyer split the remaining 65% with nobody getting more than 15%. Unlikely, but mathematically possible. In that scenario, Bernie gets 100% of delegates, and nobody else gets any. If Amy, Pete, and Steyers votes got redistributed, you could have Bernie at 45% but Biden, Warren, Bloomberg now at 18% each. Now Bernie only gets 45% of delegates and the others get 18%. Even if the new distribution is 45% Bernie, 25% one of the others, and <15% all the rest, then you get Bernie with 64% of delegates and the other with 36%.
The 15% viability rule was designed to push out candidates polling below 15%. The sooner that happens, the better the delegate result will reflect the popular vote result.
pamelabrown53
@Immanentize:
Stellar, Immanentize! Only problem is now I have an earworm!
Martin
@Captain C: It should also serve as a reminder that the Senate let Trump off the hook for ginning up that dirt, and took on the task themselves.
This is not over.
germy
@debbie:
Has Biden expressed any intention to launch investigations, if he wins the election? I would hope so, but I honestly don’t know.
Orange Is The New White
@jk: How’s the weather in Petersburg tonight?
MCA1
@Mnemosyne: I’d be cool with that, but I’d also be cool with Schiff as AG and someone like Swalwell heading to the Senate.
Kent
I can’t imagine a contested convention between Sanders and Biden coming out with anything but some sort of unity ticket with one or the other on top. I don’t see a unity ticket with both of them on it as they are both too old and egotistical. But a unity ticket in which one is forced to take a running mate that is a surrogate for the other wing of the party. I could see that happening.
So Sanders/Klobuchar or something to that effect
Or Biden/Warren or something to that effect.
It’s honestly a lot harder to come up with a reasonable Sanders stand-in than a reasonable Biden stand-in as Warren isn’t really a Sanders surrogate in any way except on some policies. And the closer Sanders surrogates like AOC are all way too lightweight to be considered for VP.
GaryK
@trollhattan: Your comment #46 could serve as an alternative formulation of the Monty_Hall_problem. Definitely you’ve handed us some information there!
JPL
@MCA1: Since I live in GA, I might say that it won’t flip this year, but with a moderate, Lucy could still win. On the state level Tom Price’s wife might still lost and that ‘s okay with me
also that would be Lucy McBath. I don’t want Karen Handel to win again and with Bernie she would.
Another Scott
@laura: Unemployment insurance is a great idea.
But it’s vastly inadequate (of course).
Here in VA, it ranges from $60 to a maximum of $378 a week.
Grr…
Cheers,
Scott.
Martin
@Marcopolo: Based on how many martial arts movies I’ve seen where the master was 1000 years old, it’s more common than you might expect.
debbie
@Jay:
They broke the truce because the Afghan government refused to release the 5,000 Taliban fighters like Pompous had promised.
debbie
@germy:
Could he really stop Pelosi and Schiff? I would hope not.
ETA: He needs to stop this “working with Mitch” shit, STAT.
Anya
@zhena gogolia: I think we need to stop saying Vlad wants Bernie. He does not. From what the investigation uncovered, Putin was supporting Bernie because he wanted to defeat HRC. Putin is a small man who has petty grudges. I bet he has the same grudges he had against Hillary Clinton against Biden. Trump is his man. Bernie is not his man.
Kent
@Mnemosyne:Val Demings is 62 not 70. She is also a hard-core Harley Davidson rider. And a trained markswoman. If a black woman on a Harley can’t go and win Milwaukee then I don’t know who can. York PA is also the second biggest Harley factory so maybe she picks up some votes in PA too.
debbie
@Anya:
Putin is working both sides of the aisle. He wants BS to be the Dem candidate because he thinks Trump will trounce him. I’m not sure he’s wrong.
trollhattan
@GaryK:
Heh :)
OTOH how did you know I married a goat?!?
janesays
@Chyron HR: Having a woman as a running mate on a ticket headed by an old white man is “emasculating” to male voters?
Jesus Christ, we really are well and truly fucked as a species if that’s actually true.
WhatsMyNym
The Seattle Times has good coverage of the outbreak here. It looks like it probably started 6 weeks ago.
catclub
I think 20 with a footnote ‘1’ – scientific articles.
Another Scott
@MCA1: I assume that Uncle Joe is getting all kinds of advice.
If Clyburn really is (effectively) taking over his campaign, I would assume that Joe will be pressured to choose someone very middle-of-the-road-ish.
I wouldn’t assume that Kamala would necessarily be a strong pick for Joe. What is he hoping to do with the pick? (I’ve mentioned before that my decades-long AA friend in Ohio said that he would never vote for her because of her record in CA. Kamala spent a lot of time in South Carolina and didn’t get any traction.) I would hope that he wouldn’t automatically pick someone in the Senate, but he’s spent most of his political life there and I’m sure has many people that he thinks he could work well with…
There’s months to go before Uncle Joe even wins, he’s got lots of time to pick someone.
To be clear – I don’t have a strong preference for who Liz picks, either. ;-)
Cheers,
Scott.
oldgold
@Uncle Cosmo:
I do not agree with jk, but your comments are highly inappropriate. Would you please stop with this sort of thing.
Anya
@jk: Biden wiped the floor with Paul Ryan. I am pretty sure he’ll be fine against Trump. Let’s not kid ourselves and think anyone is amuse to Trump’s attacks. The GOP would attack every single Dem candidate. No one will escape their dirty tricks.
germy
I thought national polls show all democratic candidates beating Trump?
Another Scott
@Jay: The Afghan government said they weren’t going to release the agreed (without the government) 5000 prisoners, so then the Taliban said the agreement was off.
Totally expected.
But I can’t say I blame the Afghan government. It’s clear that Donnie is selling them out (even if it’s true that just about any agreement is going to sell them out).
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Martin
@Immanentize: At a minimum, New Jersey is responsible for this abomination
That’s a cloverleaf at a 4-way intersection because New Jersey determined that either their residents are too dumb to pull off a left turn safely, or that their traffic engineers are too dumb to pull off a protected left turn signal.
What’s more, they’re required to install a crosswalk, but you can’t get to the crosswalk, nor does the crosswalk take you anywhere. I guarantee there’s a pedestrian button there, that has almost certainly never been pressed.
trollhattan
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Sproingggg goes my brain. What in the actual fvck is Bloomie attempting to do there, compliment them or belittle them like kids? “Now finish your chores then go off and play, or back to the senate I guess for one of you.”
Bill Arnold
@WhatsMyNym:
Yeah, doubling time for number of cases (according to same guy) of about a week:
(One of the links is to the a shared-statistics github repo.) (BTW that means that the infected people are spreading the virus pretty soon after infection; does anyone have actual probabilities for spreading vs days after infection?)
debbie
@Anya:
I wouldn’t assume Trump would agree to a debate, or that his handlers would let him.
janesays
@satby: I mean, not really. The Electoral College is utter horseshit, but it is the system we have had enshrined in our constitution for our entire history as a nation. Yes, Clinton was prevented from taking office as president – by the foundational document of our country. 2000 and 2016 proved how horribly idiotic our methodology is for choosing a president, but it is the system we’re stuck with, until or unless we change it.
I suppose we could say that Andrew Jackson was the “real” 6th president, Samuel Tilden was the “real” 19th president, Al Gore was the “real” 43rd president, and Hillary Clinton was the “real” 45th president, but the history books will never reflect that
But I’m totally with you on President Biden making Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton than 10th and 11th Associate Justices of the Supreme Court. It’ll never happen, but it would be so cool if it did.
catclub
Imagine Bloomberg running as a republican challenging Trump for eight months. Given that Incumbent presidents only lose when they get primaried by their own party,That seems more useful.
Unfortunately, too much ego.
Martin
@germy: Please be wary of that. In 2016, Clinton’s entire national polling advantage was just overvotes in California. NY, MA, IL overvotes eliminated her margin of error in those polls.
The Dem needs a minimum of a 5-6 point national polling lead for an EC victory to be 50/50 odds.
pamelabrown53
@Kent:
Whoa! Didn’t know Val Demmings biography. It’s badass! Thanks for the info.
Aleta
Buttigieg Will Endorse Joe Biden for Democratic Nomination
The news comes one day after Mr. Buttigieg dropped out of the race, and as Senator Amy Klobuchar planned to leave the race and endorse Mr. Biden. (NYT)
Martin
@Anya: He is supporting Bernie because he thinks Bernie is someone unlikely to beat Trump if he’s the nominee, and because it sews discord among the Dems.
It’s just ratfucking. He doesn’t want Bernie as President. He wants the weakest opposition to Trump that he can reasonably muster. (There are weaker opponents, but they are out of reach)
catclub
I suspect that release agreement was made by the US, for the Afghan government. Without the Afghan government asking to be represented that way. Great negotiating technique.
WaterGirl
@Kelly:
That’s me, too.
different-church-lady
@WhatsMyNym: Crap, I’ve probably touched my face at least once or twice since then.
tobie
The last candidate I enthusiastically supported is gone, and I’m a bit stunned that after all the breathless coverage of the primary for months, we’re back to where we started with the two most recognizable names in the field, Biden and Sanders. I didn’t expect this.
Regarding Veep stakes: I’m surprised the name Susan Rice has not come up more often. She’s experienced and wicked smart, and compared to Biden and Sanders she’s young. It’s true Republicans hate her but they hate any & every prominent Dem.
Martin
@Kent: York PA is also racist as fuck, so I wouldn’t go counting on a few Harley employees in their final days of employment to get out the boat.
Anya
@Mary G: I think some of it is PTSD reaction to Trump’s win. A lot of people I know (from Obama campaigns), some are my age, others are older people who are the best people you’ll ever meet were legit shocked and discombobulated by Trump’s win. I’ve learned so much from these folks and I trust them with my life. I trust their values. The majority of them have concluded that a great number of our fellow citizens are so fucking misogynistic that they’d rather vote for a bigoted insult comic than an accomplished woman. I think a lot of people believe this and that is why we are where we are. It’s not about what they believe but rather they can’t trust their fellow citizens and they want Trump defeated.
Jay
@laura:
@Another Scott:
back in the day, in Canada, we used to have Unemployment Insurance.
– it paid earned wages ( less UI and WCB Contributions) for 52 weeks, to an income cap of $75,000.
– it required 30 weeks of full time employment to qualify , ( in the previous 5 year period with out a claim), or 20 weeks of part time or seasonal employment in certain job classifications or regions,
– full time education or periodic absence from Canada was allowed as long as it contributed to future employment. If a new job started, lasted less than a month, the previous claim was reset.
– “grey income” to suppliment UI Earnings was allowed as long as it was less than 1/2 of a biweekly UI benifit, occured no more than once a pay period, and was not permanent or recurring.
– UI Contributions always created an annual surplus which ran from a few hundred million to several billion.
Now in Canada, we have EI.
– it pays 70% of earned wages ( with EI and WCB deductions) with no cap.
– it requires 32 weeks of full time employment to qualify, other than in some regions. Most of the people who pay EI do not qualify for EI.
– Full time education is not allowed, “grey income” is not allowed, one must remain in Canada, new employment, no matter how brief, closes out the old claim and 32 weeks of full time is required for a new claim.
– EI generates massive annual surpluses which are used as a revinue stream for other Government programs, such as the Energy Producer Subsidy.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@catclub: The Republican Party wasn’t having primaries in a whole lot of states.
Kelly
@Martin: Roundabouts are under utilized.
janesays
@catclub: Incumbent presidents lose when they get primaried by candidates who have broad appeal with much of the party base. Michael Bloomberg could have spent $1 billion trying to primary Trump, and the end result would still have been him losing every single contest in a blowout. The reason why the Ted Kennedy and Pat Buchanan primary challenges succeeded in bringing down the incumbents in the general elections is because both of those guys had a solid base of support within their respective party when they mounted their challenges. There was a solid left flank of the Democratic Party who was not happy with Carter in 1980, and a solid right flank of the GOP who was not happy with Poppy Bush in 1988.
Also worth noting – both of those primary challenges came from their respective extremes rather than the center. This was also true for Ford in 1976 and Johnson in 1968. When candidates try to mount a primary challenge against a sitting president from a more centrist position, they fail miserably. Just ask Bill Weld and Mark Sanford.
Kent
@pamelabrown53:
http://www.valdemings.com/meet-val
Born in a one-room house with 7 siblings. Mom was a maid, dad was a Janitor. Worked as a social worker and then rose through the ranks to become chief of police in one of the largest police departments in Florida. Rides a Harley and runs 1/2 marathons in her 60s. She is seriously badass
And she is a compelling speaker which is why she was one of the impeachment managers. Watch her opening statement during the impeachment trial.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANtMp7DsxTQ
Martin
FWIW, if Biden ends up beating Bernie for the nomination, that’s 100% on Clyburn (credit or fault, depending on your preferences). That might turn out to be an even more influential endorsement than Kennedy’s endorsement of Obama.
Anya
@debbie: I agree. He is such a coward. He’s more comfortable with creating twitter beef and his childish name calling schtick than facing someone in a debate.
WhatsMyNym
@different-church-lady: I’ve touched my face twice since you wrote that comment.
Martin
@Kelly: Indeed. Of of the UKs better inventions, and then they went and fucked them up as well (Swindon).
janesays
That’s incorrect. Warren holds a slight edge on Klobuchar in both delegates won and total popular vote after South Carolina. I agree with your broader point, however.
different-church-lady
@WhatsMyNym: This relationship is going way too fast for me.
Lapassionara
OT, but I just saw a news bulletin, re HRC has been ordered to sit for a deposition by a DC judge in a lawsuit brought by Judicial Watch, re her use of a private server while Secretary of State.
germy
Kelly
@Martin: I’ve been to Swindon. One of the locals took me for a ride thru the Magic Roundabout. He liked it but figured it only worked if you knew it well.
James E Powell
@jk:
Maybe I’ve got it all wrong, but the Republican smears against Biden don’t appear to have had any effect at all.
The smears only work with low information voters. They worked against Hillary Clinton because the NYT had been smearing her for over 20 years and because a supposed liberal was making groundless claims of corruption against her. Biden doesn’t have those problems. Among low information voters, Biden is regarded as a nice guy. It’s hard to smear someone like that without really good evidence. “He got his son a sweet job” is not going to work.
Anya
@debbie:
@Martin: I think I was trying to say the same thing as the two of you. Some people claim that Bernie is a Russian asset and that is a place we shouldn’t go.
janesays
@jk: But how do you really feel? Don’t sugarcoat it.
PaulWartenberg
Ever since Klobuchar dropped out, in the past hour, there has been a serious uptick on Twitter from BernieBros trying to trend #WarrenEndorseBernie hashtags arguing for her to drop out and support Bernie vs. Biden. And the tone of the tweets range from (some) honest panic to (most) smug bullying arrogance.
Jinchi
@Baud: Tulsi’s planning to win by attrition. She”s already climbed 3 places in the last week. All she needs is to do is wait for Bloomberg, Warren, Biden and Bernie to fall and then she has this in the bag.
Morzer
@janesays: And there shall go up from Vermont a mighty clamor that shall echo throughout the keyboards of a thousand Bernie Bros.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Lapassionara: Judge Royce Lamberth, a thorn in the Clintons’ side for going on thirty years now. I wonder if I still have my copy of David Brock’s book
geg6
@oldgold:
Sorry, but this is Balloon Juice. If we can’t tell trolls to fuck off and die in a fire now, then I’m outta here.
Seriously. There are no politeness rules here at BJ. Hell, Cole himself regularly tells us all to fuck off and DIAF.
Immanentize
@pamelabrown53: Thank you.
I admit that I myself think “Alito, Sam” was a quality effort.
But like OzarkHB, I am very humble.
Martin
@PaulWartenberg: Boy, any Bernie supporter that thinks Warren would endorse him is seriously out to lunch.
janesays
@debbie: We’ll never know, because there was no McGovern-Eagleton ticket on the ballot. Eagleton withdrew as the VP nominee on August 1, 1972, more than two months before the election.
McGovern-Shriver was the ticket on the 1972 ballot.
Also, Cornel West would not be Sanders nominee. Neither would Nina Turner. I have no idea who it would be, but it would most likely be somebody with at least some experience in a major elected office under their belt, very likely either Ro Khanna or Pramila Jayapal.
I don’t want Sanders to be the nominee because I don’t think he would be a very strong candidate, but this place gets a little ridiculous in the speculation about what a Sanders general election campaign would look like or what the likely results would be. I have no doubt that Sanders is the riskiest candidate we could nominate (which is why I don’t want him to be the nominee), but he wouldn’t lose 40+ states, because literally no Democrat will lose that many states. Namely because there are more than 10 states that will never, ever, ever vote for Donald Trump, no matter who his opponent is. A literal steaming pile of dog shit could beat Trump in states like California, New York, Oregon, and Massachusetts.
Jay
https://www.wonkette.com/trump-molesting-flag-on-cpac-stage-is-perfect-commentary-on-his-presidency
Kent
The NYT podcast “The Daily” did a whole 1/2 hour show on WHY the Russians might be supporting Bernie. They came up with 3 possible reasons that are not mutually exclusive.
Reason 1: Bernie might be the weakest opposition to Trump. That is the one we all assume to be the case.
Reason 2: Supporting both extremes against the middle is the best way to sow chaos in American society generally. This is their go-to strategy around the world to foster extremism at both ends as a way to destabilize countries and make them less effective opponents to Russia.
Reason 3: If they have to live with a Democrat in office than Bernie is probably the best choice from Russia’s point of view as he is the least interventionist in the middle east and central Europe. Compared to the more establishment candidates who are closer to the anti-Russia traditional foreign policy establishment, Bernie is much more of an isolationist and much more likely to give Russia free rein in Ukraine, Syria, etc.
All three could be simultaneous reasons. They aren’t mutually exclusive.
different-church-lady
@Martin: “Shit shit shit, I need to make friends with someone! And fast! How the hell do you do that?”
germy
@Lapassionara:
Well, it’s about time someone finally decided to look into that.
JoeyJoeJoe
@catclub: I don’t believe that Herbert Hoover was primaried in1932; please correct me if I’m mistaken
Eljai
@PaulWartenberg: Fuck those guys. I can smell the flopsweat from here.
patroclus
This is very sad news. To me, Klobuchar was clearly the best candidate in the race and would have made a wonderful President. I was planning on voting for her regardless when it finally comes around to Illinois, but now, there doesn’t seem to be a point to it. So I guess I’ll go with (cough cough) Biden. It’ll take awhile to make me in any way enthusiastic about it, but I’ll come around (slowly). She’ll still be a good Senator; probably one of the best.
At least her dropping out is going to get BJ close to a T-Bogg…
Lapassionara
@germy: I know. Then we can start on Trump’s use of his personal cell phone for government business, not to mention Jared, Ivanka, and Mick Mulvaney.
Kent
I REALLY want to see a 3-person debate with Biden, Sanders and Warren in which Warren chops Sanders to fucking pieces like she did with Bloomberg.
I think she has that in her. And I think she despises Sanders, both from her time in the Senate and because of all his bullshit in the campaign, outright calling her a liar.
I also think she has no fucks to give at this point. And will much more likely side with Biden. A 3-person race with Sanders, Biden, and Warren has to help Biden more than Sanders I gotta think.
debbie
@Lapassionara:
Don’t forget his ripping up every piece of paper that crosses his desk.
Jay
Dorothy A. Winsor
Kos has a new post saying Sanders is stuck at 30% support among Democrats mostly because he never felt the need to expand his coalition. I hope he has his helmet on.
ETA: Also stock market up 5%.
Immanentize
@JoeyJoeJoe: There were no primaries to speak of back then.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@janesays: Jayapal was born in India.
debbie
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Only another 2,000 points more to get back to where it was a week ago. :/
Chyron HR
@PaulWartenberg:
So do they spam snake emojis while simultaneously begging for Warren’s endorsement?
Ocotillo
I early voted for Warren in Texas last week. Her poor start in the first four contests really seem to indicate she will not prevail. That being said, Biden has been a notoriously bad campaigner in the past so he could screw up at some point leaving Warren as the only viable alternative to Wilmer.
I tried my hand at punditry last week saying Biden was done and I will be happy to be wrong but even happier if somehow EW could pull of the nomination.
Some here have suggested different roles for EW should not get the nomination but how about Senate Majority Leader? Could she pull that off?
janesays
@Mnemosyne: 62 year old Val Demings will probably be shocked to find out that she’s actually 70 years old.
Jinchi
@Martin: Clinton lost by less than 100,000 votes spread over 3 states, so it’s clearly wrong that democrats cannot win with less than 5-6 percent on the national average.Clinton nearly did it with half that. Even with all the built in Republican advantages Trump’s win was a serious stroke of luck.
Chyron HR
@Anya:
And yet the Russian support continues.
oldgold
@geg6:
“F-off” is fine. As a scarred fire survivor, I do not think “die in a fire” is.
Anya
Usually, I enjoy the clips I see on Youtube of Nicole Wallace’s show but today her panel is annoying me. They’re playing the “oh no, democrats are ganging up on Bernie and this will alienate his voters” game. That former Florida republican rep Steve or David somebody is the worst.
Lapassionara
@debbie: Yes, I’ve heard those stories. As Sarah Kendzior says, this is a crime syndicate masquerading as a government.
trollhattan
@Jinchi:
Clinton won just a single Confederate state: Virginia. If Candidate D can pull NC or GA or FL into the fold…. Not counting on any of those but they all seem at least plausible in 2020.
MCA1
@James E Powell: It did seem like those attacks were working initially, though, as Biden’s numbers in the primary polls were dropping as the impeachment was proceeding and the entire GOP couldn’t let Hunter’s name pass their lips often enough. There were a lot of hot takes about how even though it got him impeached, Trump still won by damaging Biden.
Tough to know if there was causality there, though. He’s obviously rebounded, but there are plenty of possible factors behind it, beyond the Republicans no longer obsessing over Ukraine and Burisma.
All that said, if he were to win the nomination I would expect a Biden campaign to take dead aim at Jr., Eric, Ivanka and even Jared the moment nepotism or foreign corruption come up. I mean, that is an incredibly target rich environment, and they’d be forgiven for going there if Drumpf is slandering Hunter Biden.
trnc
@Baud:
Can’t imagine him dropping out yet. If he makes it to the next debate, my personal preference would be for her to completely ignore Bloomberg and have an actual discussion with Biden. No attacks per se, just “Here’s where I disagree with you” so she can highlight her own ideas.
I’m not sure what she should do with Bernie, since he isn’t the kind of person anyone can have a discussion with.
Jay
@Chyron HR:
they also “supported” Yang, and still “support” Gabbard.
anything to divide the Big Tent.
A Ghost To Most
The generous explanation for Bloomberg staying in because he has less limits on spending that way.
Probably ego, though. Tim O’Brien spinning like mad now.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Anya: and– yet again– no pushback on Bernie calling South Carolina Democrats “the corporate wing of the Democratic Pahwty
@A Ghost To Most:
I’ve always liked O’Brien. I wonder if that will survive the Bloomberg candidacy
SiubhanDuinne
@Another Scott:
I’m no mathematician, but I would have thought it would be a somewhat higher percentage :-)
Jay
trnc
@Jinchi:
It wasn’t luck. They and their enablers, both foreign and domestic, targeted the crap out of those states.
Chris Johnson
@Kent: Reason 2 is the big deal. We see it all the time, directly and indirectly.
Putin has people supporting Biden too. They’re not tweeting as berniebros: they’re HERE and places like this, Facebook etc: anywhere that can be targeted. This while also developing the Hunter Biden slime attacks. It’s like a game to them, or more accurately a time-tested general strategy: always divide and conquer. They are absolutely capable of on the one hand throwing money at Bernie, and on the other hand having people in places like right here, on this very blog, whose job it is to highlight exactly how much Putin’s throwing money at Bernie. Sometimes the reason the poster is flaming Bernie with such specific ferocity, is that they know better than anyone that their accusations are true: their boss is doing it, they don’t have to guess.
Can’t be leaving the counterattack to the Americans. What if they didn’t take the bait?
Jay
?BillinGlendaleCA
@janesays:
It would depend on turnout. Trump could win in California if turnout for the Democratic ticket if turnout was extremely depressed or with a third party run on the left.
And, there’s a pretty good chance Bernie would select Nina Turner. He’s want a true believer as his VP.
zhena gogolia
@pamelabrown53:
Not much chance of that!
Jay
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Montgomery_(Lake_Champlain)
janesays
@Kent: Biden wins Pennsylvania no matter who his running mate is. The dude’s from Scranton and a lifelong Iggles fan.
Marcopolo
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Well, I know I’ve lost all respect for him as a good faith actor. But a guy needs to make a living & he was already a Bloomberg news editor before his boss jumped in.
gene108
@janesays:
The only time the EC really worked were the elections of 1788 and 1792.
1796 was a bit of a clusterfuck, with Jefferson becoming Adams VP, even though they were running against each other.
1800 was so fucked up, the 12th amendment was added to try and fix the mess drawn up in the Constitution.
It mostly worked, with a couple of notable exceptions of 1824 and 1876. And did not cause problems throughout the 20th century, so folks just thought it was just this quirk that didn’t amount to much.
But that’s no longer true.
It really doesn’t work well, and hasn’t since its inception.
Bill Arnold
@Lapassionara:
If she does this, I hope she gets this old and under-known story on the record (if it doesn’t put her in jeopardy):
Emphasis mine, buried in paragraphs 11-12 of Hillary Clinton’s Email Was Probably Hacked, Experts Say (2016/07/07)
neldob
@Adam L Silverman: thanks. I always (almost) very much appreciate what you have to say. thanks.
zhena gogolia
@Anya:
We don’t know — because he hasn’t been open with us. About this, about his taxes, or about his medical records. Reminds me of someone with the initials DJT.
Eljai
@Ocotillo:
I know. Biden had one decent debate out of 10 and his campaign performance for the past year has lacked luster, but now the press and every big Democratic fundraiser has decided he’s unstoppable. A mere week ago, Bernie was the juggernaut. Media horserace coverage and prognostication is harmful and often wrong. Still glad I early voted for Warren in CA.
Tom Q
@JoeyJoeJoe: It was taken as a sign that, given conditions by 1932, everyone knew the GOP nomination was of no value. A trained seal would have beat Hoover.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@MCA1: Going after Ivanka is really OK since she’s a part of the administration.
Richard Guhl
@Tom Q: Bernie claims the mantle of progressive, but in terms of behavior, he’s more transgressive.
A guy who lets slide snake emojis thrown at Warren really has little regard for making allies.
neldob
“…The question then is what, if anything, the Supreme Court does.” And maybe what if anything we, as citizens, do?
Marcopolo
@Kent: I dunno why you would think Warren needs to side with either of them. Hell, she has two elbows!
Bill Arnold
@A Ghost To Most:
Punchy, so I first scanned that as “Tim O’Brien spinning like a mad cow.”
janesays
@Martin: Clyburn literally resurrected Biden’s campaign from the dead. Without that endorsement, Biden still wins South Carolina, but it’s probably only by 10 points or so. Which may not have been enough to convince Steyer, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar that it was time to walk away. And Sanders would still be the dominating frontrunner heading into Super Tuesday.
Biden needed to not only win South Carolina to survive, he needed to win it big. And he did exactly that, largely thanks to Clyburn.
janesays
@germy: You don’t even need the “female” qualifier in that one. She’s the youngest antifascist candidate in the race of any gender. And she’s still a septuagenarian.
Richard Guhl
@Baud: His initials are JoeBiden
janesays
Out of curiosity, where is the line on that? Like, would it be over the line to tell another poster that you hope they get kidnapped by ISIS and brutally beheaded on FB Live for the whole world to see?
Sorry, that was really dark. Tee hee.
pamelabrown53
@Immanentize:
Well you’re in good company with Ozark HB.
janesays
@JoeyJoeJoe: There were no primaries in 1932 – candidates were chosen by the party establishment at the nominating conventions.
Kent
True, but she seems to like to pick off her opponents one by one. I gotta think Bernie is next in the crosshairs.
janesays
@Ocotillo: Not anytime soon. The Senate is a very entrenched institution, and almost nobody becomes the Majority Leader until at least their third term. And even that is a little earlier than is normally the case. The job is Schumer’s until he doesn’t want it anymore.
Tom Q
@Anya: They kept saying, Ooh, you’ve got to use kid gloves on Bernie. I was waiting for someone to say, Yo: nobody could have treated Bernie with more deferrence than Hillary Clinton — she never even ran a negative ad against him — and still they’ve spent four years trashing her and claiming she stole the nomination from him. Being aggrieved is how the center of Bernie-land rolls.
This is not remotely to say all Sanders supporters fall into that box — I have close friends who are all in on him. But they don’t demonize anyone for disagreeing, and, in the event of eventual disappointment, will lick their wounds and vote for the nominee. They won’t need kid glove treatment. For the rest — of course, you don’t spike the ball on them. But a hard core of them will be insufferable no matter how solicitous you are of them.
janesays
@trnc: It’s luck to the extent that those efforts just barely worked. Seriously, the weather alone in a particular part of Detroit could have changed the outcome in that state, it was that close.
Tom Q
@janesays: But there could have been a challenge at the convention (there a been in some past years). That there wasn’t was seen as confirming the belief no GOP candidate could prevail in the conditions of 1932.
janesays
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Trump could not win California under any circumstances whatsoever, and it’s insanity to think he could. And yes, I know you are from California. Just like nearly 40 million other people. No state that votes against a presidential candidate by a 30 point margin in one election is going to flip and vote FOR that same candidate four years later, because I’m fairly sure it has never happened in the entire history of this nation. I get that you think Bernie Sanders is literally the worst candidate in the history of the world, but no, he would not lose California if he were the nominee, and you really are a full-blown crazy person if you believe otherwise.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@janesays: Obviously, you seem to know more about the state I’ve lived in for 60 years.
janesays
@?BillinGlendaleCA: No, I don’t know more about a state that you have lived in for 60 years, but I do know how to fucking count.
We have had this fight before, and it’s obvious we’re not going to agree on it. I hope we never get to put this debate to a real world test, because believe it or not, I’m actually in agreement with you that Bernie would be a terrible nominee, and I hope we don’t get to find out if that is true or not. But if we do have to find out how he would do, it would be nice if you would at that point shut the fuck up with the completely baseless nihilistic “OMGZ, he’s going lose California!!!” bullshit for five fucking seconds. You sound like Chris fucking Matthews when you do that. Actually, Chris Matthews, only more hyperventilating and histrionic.
Bill Arnold
@Chris Johnson:
This is why a brokered convention and having E. Warren still in the game are important:: she’s a backup, and the oppo I’ve seen so far against her is weak sauce (gender is another story). It’s also important to flush as much of the slime/oppo into the minds of the Democratic tacticians, if not into the open, before the convention as possible. IMO.
(You’ll note that you’re doing the division-widening thing in that comment.)
zhena gogolia
@janesays:
Wow, when somebody uses that phrase I immediately know I don’t need to pay any attention to anything else they say
ETA: Hmm, I see you changed it.
Miss Bianca
@Immanentize:
OK, thank you for that perspective. Getting down to the last minute here for turning in my ballot in CO, and I was/am feeling some serious heart-burning over voting for Warren v. voting for Biden.
J R in WV
@Cacti:
Bernie will go with whomever Vladimir Putin tells him to select, don’t you think?
janesays
@zhena gogolia: Yes, I changed it because it was immature and I was angrily posting in frustration. I clarified my position with the edits.
Chris Johnson
@J R in WV: If it is Gabbard, I will know you were literally right. Failing that, dunno.
Richard Guhl
@clay: It also serves as a reminder of that whole impeachment thing.
Steeplejack
@janesays:
I’m way late catching up on this thread, so maybe someone has already mentioned this, but it’s not just symbolic. If some candidate has not won the nomination outright before the convention, and there is horse-trading to be done, it will be useful for Warren to have a nice pile of delegate bargaining chips that she can use to affect the outcome, even if she is not the eventual nominee herself.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@janesays: You seem to be fixated on polling numbers, there’s more to politics than polling numbers. While California has been reliably blue in the recent past, that has not always been the case. There are conservative undercurrents in the state’s politics. Tax aversion is still a thing here, Prop 13 is still on the books.
chopper
@janesays:
“may you be eaten by the cat, and the cat then be eaten by the devil”
zhena gogolia
@janesays:
I avoid the “DIAF” thing, mainly for the reason the commenter adduced — it’s not very funny for burn victims.
guachi
@?BillinGlendaleCA: There is no universe where California votes for Trump in 2020.
different-church-lady
Seriously at a loss to understand how California would not go readily for Bernie or Joe. I mean are we talking “could” in the sense of “A meteor coming from behind the sun could wipe us out next week” could? Or perhaps a “Nominee Sanders suffers stroke on eve of third debate” could?
Suzanne
@Ruckus:
You always say exactly what I’m thinking, but better than I would say it. I’m disappointed that it’s down to OWGs (old white guys), but it’s better than what we have now. #teambrokenglass
different-church-lady
@zhena gogolia: I prefer “die from cancer AIDS” because it offends a lot more people.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@guachi: It’s not probable, but it’s possible.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@different-church-lady: More likely enough bad shit about the nominee to depress turnout or a strong 3rd party candidate. Other than that, Trump would lose California.
Richard Guhl
If Biden wins the nomination, I hope he picks Kamala Harris as his VP. (One of Jim Clyburn’s acolytes suggested he call her ASAP).
Should he win the election, I hope he picks Susan Rice for Secretary of State, Fiona Hill as head of the National Security Council, Paul Krugman as Treasury Secretary, Sally Yates as Attorney General, and Pete Buttigieg as Secretary of Defense.
zhena gogolia
@Richard Guhl:
And restore LTC Vindman to his post in the NSC.
different-church-lady
@?BillinGlendaleCA: So you’re going with Dirk Gently over Sherlock Holmes?
Bill Arnold
@Richard Guhl:
Or Adam Schiff.
Suzanne
@Richard Guhl: And Anita Hill on the USSC to replace RBG.
That… would bring me joy.
MCA1
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I’ll take a much more subdued posting approach than janesays here, but he/she is right, substantively.
California has, despite its pockets of weird MAGA-friendly rural places and much of the Central Valley, moved further left in recent years at the federal election level. The ’18 blue wave basically wiped out the OC Republicans. Clinton did better there in ’16 than Obama did in either of his victories.
Dotard got but 31% of the vote in CA last time around, and he’s done zero to reach out to California voters. In fact, he has openly antagonized the entire state for 3+ years now. That’s not going to get middle of the road folks to suddenly defect to him en masse due to fear of Bernie Sanders.
Sanders will scare moderates a lot more in Florida and other places not used to the language of leftist politics than he will in CA. Case in point: he’s predicted to win the Dem primary there. I could see the math materializing if, for some reason, California Democrats were dead set on a moderate type, had someone polarizing and more extremist forced on them by the rest of the country, and then sat it out. But, again, Bernie’s popular with California Dems.
different-church-lady
@Suzanne: THOMAS [THINKS]: “That face looks familiar…”
?BillinGlendaleCA
@different-church-lady: Heh.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@MCA1: The two scenarios that I pointed to were an extremely depressed turnout among Democrats or a third party run. Let’s just say I’m cautious in my predictions.
J R in WV
@germy:
And in the national news media, misogyny rules at all times. Wife got into a national media organization back in the late 1970s. They had a test applicants had to take, the local manager thought she had somehow cheated because she practically aced their test. He offered to let her take it again saying he had lost her test paperwork, thinking she would turn him down. He watched her take the test the second time, and she beat her previous score. He pretty much felt like he had to hire her, and hated it.
He called her “The Bod” behind her back… he was transferred to Denver where when he retired, at his retirement party a friendly coworker of wife’s asked him very publicly if it was true that he had called wife The Bod when she worked for him, he turned bright red and left his own retirement party instantly. Good for J… for putting it into his back. Wife was an elected union officer and pretty popular to win those elections from a tiny office in WV.
They are nearly all that bad, still. And the “Me TOO” movement isn’t ever going to get rid of the vast majority of the misogynist management, which means the MSM will never give a female candidate for president an even fair break. Never!
Bitter, much? You bet. Harassment never stopped for a moment, especially since she became active in union leadership.
Elizabelle
@Cacti:
Oh please let it continue. No Bernie, no Bernie, no Bernie.
We need to keep the House. We need to pick off seats in red/purple districts. We want the Senate.
Martin
@different-church-lady: Yeah, I don’t see it either, even with a strong candidate from the left. I don’t think Jerry Brown or Adam Schiff could win CA in a 3rd party bid, even against Tulsi Gabbard.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Martin: They wouldn’t have to win, just split the vote.
ETA: As I said, very unlikely, but not impossible.
janesays
@Steeplejack: Excellent point. FiveThirtyEight is now saying there’s a 66% chance that no candidate will have a majority of delegates by the convention.
Suzanne
@different-church-lady: Hey, why not? Biden said he was going to name a black woman. Dr. Hill is an eminent professor. And he owes her, big time. He has a big debt to repay.
I can dream.
janesays
@different-church-lady: You’re at a loss because some people here have a hatred for Bernie that is almost as mindlessly irrational as the disturbing devotion his most obnoxious supporters have for him.
There is no universe in which Donald Trump wins California in November. Not even the one in which Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee.
I think Bernie would be a crappy nominee, and so I hope he doesn’t become the nominee. I think the odds of him losing are far too great to take a risk on him. And I think even he were to beat Donald Trump, his administration would be a mess because he has never learned how to play nicely with others.
I don’t need to be sold on why it would be a bad idea to pick Bernie as our nominee. I’m already there. You’re preaching to the choir. But the hyperbolic “OMG, he would lose in the worst landslide defeat in history!!!” isn’t remotely helpful in persuading anyone who is Bernie-curious to the opposing POV, because it sounds like the rant of a crazy person unhinged from reality. Bernie could definitely lose, and he could lose badly. And he could cost us a lot of congressional seats, including our House majority. But even in the worst case scenario, there is no possible outcome which will have Donald Trump winning in California, or New York, or Massachusetts, or Oregon, or Washington, or Vermont, or Delaware… and hypothesizing about any of that happening as a likely outcome just makes one sound like a fucking moron.
janesays
@?BillinGlendaleCA: It’s also possible you could win Powerball. And I’d say the odds of that happening are about the same as the odds of Trump winning California.
sgrAstar
@janesays: if Mike really wanted to stop Bernie, he should endorse Bernie. That bit of ratfucking would be priceless.
Uncle Cosmo
Nope. Bernie will go with whomever Jane tells him to select.
Jane will tell him whomever Vlad wants him to select.
(I’m not quite accusing Missus ShoutyWaggyFinger of being her husband’s control. [FTR I have also backed off the belief that BS himself is in Vlad’s pocket – he’s actually vain enough to discount the strong probability that his support is mostly Russky bots & his warchest rubles laundered $27 at a pop.] It might be that she knows her only chance of staying out of prison for embezzlement lies in him taking a fall in the fall vs Orangecandyass & his DOJ in return sitting on the evidence they have till the statute of limitations runs out.)
J R in WV
@zhena gogolia:
And promote and award LTC Vindman with medals for fighting for the truth. He might find other duty assignments more rewarding than the work he did on the NSC, and should be asked which one he would prefer. Adam S has suggested various educational opportunities he might take advantage of as well.
Or just make it discretely clear to the Army that he should do well with promotion boards.
J R in WV
@Uncle Cosmo:
All possible — I just think the Sanders candidacy is controlled, and not by Bernie, and not really by Jane. By Russian political operatives! Whether they call up Bernie, Jane, of one of Bernie’s minions, who cares.
Uncle Cosmo
Dying in a fire is arguably the most horrific way to leave this plane of existence.[1] I would only wish that (metaphorically – in person I am the mildest of souls) on someone whose behavior seems to me so evil – so willing, even eager, to destroy the lives of blameless folk in numbers that boggle the mind – that in a just world they would instead feel the pain of all their intended victims themselves.
IMHO the troll I responded to richly deserves such admonition. I don’t know why Cole doesn’t just ban the motherfucker. But it’s his blog & he can make the rules as he sees fit.
And now that we know “oldgold’s” experience with flames, I pledge I will from this point forward never wish he should FOADIAF, no matter how badly he pisses me off (as he often has).[2]
Notes:
[1] The only other contender I know of is terminal bone cancer – utter agony which can last a lot longer.
[2] No commitments re other demises, though. Is FOADOBC a thing? Should it be?
Fair Economist
@Marcopolo:
Sequencing indicates it was a patient caught by screening just after travel restrictions started. That patient’s virus shared an unusual mutation with the first community case. The original patient was isolated and recovered, so either he transmitted on the flight, the isolation failed, or he transmitted after release.
Richard Guhl
@zhena gogolia: definitely
PaulWartenberg
@Kent:
To me it comes down to the Character traits of the three remaining leading candidates:
Warren has to know she can get a better deal with Biden if she can’t crack the delegate numbers than with Bernie. The only reason she hasn’t dropped out yet is because she’s fighting for that leverage to be able to get at LEAST her major platform points – finance reform, electoral reform – on the official agenda going into November.