Good morning.
For the folks whose candidates had a good night last night, stretch out your hip flexors before you do your happy dance this morning.
For the folks whose candidates did not have a good night, you have my sympathy and empathy.
Jackals, let’s try not to be assholes to each other in comments.
The two delegate leaders are the former vice president and a member of the party’s Senate leadership.
That is the most interesting and important thing. The Democratic Party has been able to successfully resist leveraged buy-out bids by loosely linked party actors. Bloomberg dropped half a billion dollars to win American Samoa and pick up a few delegates here and there. Steyer dropped over a quarter billion dollars for even less. Significant factions of the Democratic Party were able to solve the coordination problem of unifying behind one candidate and deliver a meaningful supportive push to that candidate at a decisive moment. These are all signs of a relatively healthy political party. It can resist take-over bids, while also coordinating resources from diverse stakeholders.
Last night showed that at least one political party in America is able to fulfill its institutional role.
UPDATE 1 Primary electorates are fundamentally different than general election electorates. Keep that in mind as you attempt to create scenarios that are favorable to your preferred candidates.
Baud
Fuck you.
PVDMichael
Considering that the leading candidates are both in their upper 70s.. have had some health issues… why not pressure them to do things differently? Name running mates now… it’s more valuable info now than after they have all the delegates they need.
MattF
A lesson (apparently) is that, for Democrats, personal qualities outweigh policy desires. It’s a stark contrast to Republicans.
zhena gogolia
I’m disappointed that you have left out Russian interference. It is real and we should not be ignoring it.
PenAndKey
That’s asking a lot of us. I’m sure we’ll try. Well, except for Baud. And maybe a dozen other regulars. But that’s it. Maybe.
Chris Johnson
I’ll buy that. And I appreciate it: thanks for the encouraging words.
Remember, whatever we are facing in terms of weak leadership, the Republicans are saddled with far worse. The big challenge here is not having the electorate straight up check out and refuse to have any part in politics.
To me that says, we start looking like a Democratic Party that can get stuff done, that is up to the historical moment in which we find ourselves. There are plenty of people who can help that along.
WereBear
We still have a working party, working as the founders intended. I have explained to dozens of people, and potentially more online, that we were created as a two party system, with the fighting done within the party.
We are not a parliamentary system. The coalition building takes place within one of the two parties. With Republicans now a BlackAdderesque Crazy Party, they have driven many out of their party… and possibly, into ours.
I saw Bloomberg as a potential mole in that respect, and the fact that he’s dropped out is the best news I could have gotten this morning.
A Ghost To Most
@Baud: Done in one.
Starfish
@Baud: It’s okay to be angry that Tulsi Gabbard got more delegates than you did.
Chris Johnson
@zhena gogolia: He did say ‘take-over bids’. Given that the Republican party did in fact get taken over by Russian interference, and is being run out of Russia to the maximum extent possible, I feel mentioning take-over bids counts.
And we know Bernie has been their stalking horse, and I’m expecting to spend a fuckload of time trying to talk down lefties I know who are being barraged with demands to sit out or actively vote for Trump to express their outrage. It is so obviously the next stage, being planned for all this time, by the same people who’ve been telling those lefties that Warren is a snake and an establishment monster. It’s all part of the takeover bid.
Nobody’s ignoring it. I saw a comment on this blog a couple days ago where a whole pile of agencies got together to deliver a coordinated warning that Russia was super busy. I never heard another thing about that warning, from anywhere, ever… because Russia is super busy.
Chris Johnson
@WereBear: Wait, he did? Or was just considering it?
Also, yeah: though there are bad consequences, Biden is probably the one candidate most likely to pick up never-Trump former Republicans. He looks right to them, and the propaganda making him look bad to left-wingers will have the contrary effect on former Republicans.
JPL
Congrats to Cal Cunningham and he’d make a fine Senator for NC.
Another Scott
Does Bernie’s spokespeople know that he’s part of the Dread Democratic Establishment™??
(groucho-roll-eyes.gif)
Thanks. ;-)
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@Another Scott:
How’s J feeling? Wasn’t she a big Bernie booster?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Another Scott:
No.
Jamie
@Baud: Baud! 2020: Fuck You.
Catchy, easy to put on a bumper sticker. I like it.
Comrade Scrutinizer
You must be new here.
Steeplejack
@Mayhew:
Sanders a “member of the party’s Senate leadership”? I hope this is your sarcasm showing. “Chairman of outreach”—that sounds like a do-nothing sinecure carved out especially for him.
“Sanders will be in charge of reaching out to blue-collar voters who flocked to President-elect Donald Trump this year [2016].” Yes, that has worked out so well for all concerned. ?
Tom Levenson
@Baud: you forgot the horse.
Immanentize
Sanders
Colorado:
2016 — 59%
2020 — 36% (so far)
California
2016 — 46%
2020 — 33% (so far)
David Anderson
@Baud
Back at you
Zzyzx
I think the takeaway from yesterday can be summed up as, “It’s better to reach out to people who mostly agree with you and find common ground than to insult them as being corporate stooges.”
Comrade Scrutinizer
No, they didn’t anticipate a party system. That came later after factionalism developed post-Washington.
David Anderson
@Steeplejack: Both can be true… it can be a post to keep Sanders pissing out of the tent instead of pissing into the tent. It can also be a part of leadership.
Immanentize
@Steeplejack: That was Sanders’ participation award.
Aziz, light!
From Bernie and his cult, get ready for:
We Wuz Robbed.
Hecklers at the convention.
Corrupt DNC, superdelegates, corporatist sellout, The Establishment, etc.
Convincing the yoots not to vote.
(All the hits from 2016.)
WereBear
@Chris Johnson: “Wait, he did? Or was just considering it?”
My bad, it’s not official. But after this showing, it’s not looking good. With all that money, he worried me, but all that spending is not showing up at the polls.
syphonblue
As a Warren supporter, I think the smart thing for her to do now is get some major policy concessions from Biden, then drop and endorse him. I think Biden should nominate a VP that is basically a young Warren (no idea who that would be, though) and guarantee Warren a spot as something like Secretary of Labor or head of SEC or CFPB.
If Biden doesn’t agree, she should endorse Sanders, being ideologically closer to him.
Either way, this is not the way I wanted it to go. Warren is clearly the best shot the country had for real meaningful change this year, and it is extremely disappointing how the media learned absolutely no lessons from 2016.
Steeplejack (phone)
This just in: “Fake Lap Placates Cat.” Major work-at-home problem solved!
schrodingers_cat
@zhena gogolia: May be it is because it hurts the feelings of the Socialist Messiah, hence we must maintain a decorous silence for the sake of unity?
Jeffro
@WereBear: I don’t know that a whole lot of Republicans are crossing over…but I do think that many left-leaning infrequent voters are motivated to vote, and trumpov is turning off some Republicans even as he motivates some right-leaning/racist infrequent voters.
To the point of David’s post: the reason the Democratic Party is still viable is that it’s trying to deliver for its constituents. It hasn’t been lying to them for decades or betraying them like the GOP has with its voters. Our voters KNOW why all the economic gains of the past four decades have gone to the top 10%. Our voters KNOW who supports their right to vote, their right to choose, and their desire for good schools.
The GOP has doubled down on its lies at every turn, to the point where lying now *is* their main strategy, even with their own voters. That’s not sustainable, and a big blue wave – one bigger than 2018 – is coming.
randy khan
Interesting note – in the one state that was close and went to the Republicans in 2016 to vote so far, Biden trounced Sanders, 43-24, and the total for the moderate wing candidates was 62%.
It probably doesn’t mean much for the general, but it tells you where North Carolina Dems are.
Chris Johnson
@syphonblue:
Oh please oh please oh please :D
Doesn’t seem likely, but OH MAN IF ONLY.
The more delegates she takes from Sanders, the more likely she’ll be able to get something like that out of Biden.
Gin & Tonic
@Jamie: Effective, too. In 2016, 63 million of your fellow Americans voted for “Fuck you!”
zhena gogolia
@schrodingers_cat:
I guess. No fan of Donna Brazile, but I was glad she brought that front and center in that clip yesterday from Fox News. (It was not in reference to Sanders, but in general)
Betty Cracker
@syphonblue: Katie Porter (D-CA). She’s a progressive darling, Warren surrogate, single mom, Iowa native, graduate of Harvard Law whom Warren mentored there — she named her daughter after Warren!
The thing I love most about Porter is her fierce advocacy for consumers in House hearings, where she grills government officials and CEOs in a manner reminiscent of Warren. Lots of videos of her doing this on YouTube.
Also, she looks and sounds like the sweetest, most unassuming lady, which lulls her victims into a false sense of security, and then she rips their faces off. It’s something to behold.
ByRookorbyCrook
The big take I have from the last 10 days is that the Democratic party will step up to get our nominee to the finish line. There is a preference for Biden, but Jim Clyburn and the AA community came in and jump started a stalled campaign. We have bigger turn outs, voters unwilling to be disenfranchised by long lines and limited space, and a country to save. The Democratic party is here to win this country back and will use whatever tools we have to achieve it. Biden is a good tool. Bernie less so. But regardless of our nominee, the party base will use the tools we have to get our country restored.
WereBear
@Comrade Scrutinizer: Good point, but a) have to simplify and the Founders were part of the process and b) I don’t have to simply here so much, and thanks.
Suzanne
@MattF: Hmmm, not sure about that. Trump didn’t have much in the way of a policy platform besides hating on Mexicans. He had and still has a cult of personality.
MattF
@Suzanne: True, but his actual policies became clear pretty soon.
Ocotillo
M. J. Heger is going into a runoff to have the nom to run against Cornyn. Second place was too close to call to determine who she is running against yet.
When the early voting totals were tabulated here in Texas, more Trumplicans had voted than Democrats in their respective primaries. I found that disheartening. Mrs. O, who is an election judge did observe at her polling place though, the Dems showed up en masse compared to early voting. Hope the final tally has more Ds voting than Ts.
Steeplejack (phone)
@David Anderson:
Well, we’ve now had four years to check his work. I must have missed all of the outreach and calls for unity in the midst of his constant railing against the corporate Democratic establishment—of which he is apparently a member?
Gin & Tonic
@Suzanne: OT, but didja move yet?
glory b
@Another Scott: Yeah, how does one get to be both a member of the leadership and not part of the establishment?
Chris Johnson
@Betty Cracker: Oh nice! I love that there are apparently awesome women I have never heard of, or didn’t hear enough about.
*sulk* which apparently is how THAT works. Gonna be grumpy now.
L85NJGT
@Immanentize:
Now there’s a hard ceiling. I think fantasies of a brokered convention are now just that.
With 1/3 of the delegates now assigned, Joe is already a quarter way to 1991 delegates. With that 33% cap, a cleared field, and an ever decreasing number of elections(delegates) left, it gets really hard to make up a delegate deficit and win the nomination – or even push it to a brokered convention.
Hoodie
@WereBear: Bloomberg supposedly meeting with his team in NY this morning. If there was one candidate who would be least likely to indulge in the sunk cost fallacy, it’s Bloomberg, so I’d bet he’ll be out soon to clear the field for Biden to finish off Bernie while he has so much momentum. I doubt Biden will tie himself too much to Bloomberg, just ask him to continue issue advocacy on guns and climate change, with a wink and a nod towards slagging Trump whenever possible. Warren can really stay in as long as she has money. She may actually be helping Biden, at least at the margins and she’s good third person to have in the debates.
Just an aside re Warren. She is a great person with a great origins story, a great lawyer, and a good senator. Ultimately, however, someone who comes across as a college professor is not going to get elected president unless they can create a good deal of distance from that part of their life (e.g., Obama had a lot of distance between teaching ConLaw and running for president). “Senator Professor” is a double whammy, because a lot of people think senator=pompous windbag (not that she is). Biden has a lot of distance between now and the period in which he was a senator; I imagine most people know him as VP, and don’t even know that he was a long-serving senator.
Goes to show that it’s easy to get caught up in thinking your own inside-baseball lingo is endearing, but it really falls flat on people outside of your bubble. As Clyburn said last night, Bernie did a similar thing in thinking that black voters want “free stuff.” Not that they wouldn’t support M4A, it’s just that they don’t want to be talked to about it in that way, they want to be talked to as adults who realize the complexities and political realities associated with the issue of health care.
I’ve also thought that there is a real cultural flaw with trying to sell socialism to black Americans. A lot of the black people I know are fiercely entrepeneurial. As for older black people, it may be that a lot of them remember that there was a time when there was a kind of socialism in the US (pre Civil Rights Era New Deal) that was exclusive to white people. Imagine Donald Trump in charge of a socialist state; he would fit right in, as long as he can skim the wealth.
Nelle
@Betty Cracker: I got to talk with Porter at length at a fundraiser here in Iowa. She’s wicked quick with the smarts and funny to boot. I ended up doubling my intended donation to her. I’d live to see a fundraiser for her here; she’s the first Dem rep in Orange County since the Depression and is being hit hard by dark money.
OzarkHillbilly
Fuck all ya all.
Bruce K
Hey, Baud! Any truth to the reports that you’re being vetted for nomination by the National Radical Meadow Party of Bloom County?
Suzanne
@syphonblue: Agreed. I think that the progressive faction (note that I am not saying the Berniebros) needs to be strategically kept in the coalition moving forward, as well. There was an interesting piece in FiveThirtyEight about how the southern Democratic electorate is different (by degree) than the country as a whole. In short, Dems in the south are more moderate or even conservative, for a number of different reasons such as religiosity, educational attainment, and age. I think Biden would be wise to realize that and making a hard play to Warren would be a good step to take in that direction.
Suzanne
@Gin & Tonic: Nope. Moving to PA after the end of the school year, because Mr. Suzanne doesn’t want to run out on his contract. I should note that many of his colleagues were not so considerate.
catclub
Where did you see that? I did not see it on google news
Hoodie
@Suzanne: So how did Biden beat Warren and Bernie in MA and MN? Southern Democrats are not that much different from people anywhere else. They just tend to be pragmatic because we have to deal with Republicans more frequently.
glory b
@Betty Cracker: Fun Fact!! Did you know that her first employer after law school was Kamala Harris?
Omnes Omnibus
@WereBear: No, we were not set up as a two party system. The Founders explicitly tried to avoid creating a party system. As it happened, the system they created turned out to be really conducive to having two parties, but that’s another story.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Nelle:
Loretta Sanchez would like a word with you.
glory b
@Suzanne: Did you see my comment for you about Pittsburgh neighborhoods and Spanish magnet school?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@OzarkHillbilly: Now that’s the spirit!
catclub
Jeff Sessions – who won his last senate race unopposed, also needs to win a runoff with a college football coach.
Hoping for injuries.
Another Scott
@Baud: Not so great, but she’s a fighter and not throwing in the towel just yet.
She’ll grumble, but vote straight D in the fall. ;-)
Cheers,
Scott.
Gin & Tonic
@Suzanne: Being a more considerate man than many of your colleagues is not a bad thing.
Another Scott
@syphonblue:
I think you called me a liar on national TV.
Yeah, I don’t think she’s gonna endorse Bernie – especially not anytime soon. She waited until June 2016 to endorse Hillary.
Cheers,
Scott.
PenAndKey
@Omnes Omnibus: Any system that has a strict majority vote structure will, over time, drift to a two party system. It’s a fundamental flaw based on the simple premise of “half + 1 = win”. That invariably leaves the other half as opposition.
Jinchi
This is the most encouraging outcome of the last week. The Democratic nomination is not for sale. At least not by the voters. That gives me hope for democracy.
glory b
@syphonblue: I don’t know if a Sanders endorsement is a good thing. He called her a liar and didn’t call off his more rabid followers. It reminded me of the 2016 Nevada caucus, when he wouldn’t say anything about his voters when they started throwing chairs and fist fighting.
Also, I know a lot of the black female influencers she recruited to endorse and campaign for her got treated viciously by Bernie Bros on social media. Would an endorsement be a betrayal of them?
JoeyJoeJoe
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Also Lou Correa, Jerry Patterson, and Richard Hanna.
Suzanne
@glory b: CRAP, no I did not!!! Are you on Book of Faces?
Missouri Buckeye
@Immanentize: What Sanders failed to realize was that much of his vote was actually an anti-Hillary vote where he was the only alternative.
I have my fantasy timeline where Warren actually ran in 2016, built up her national profile the way Sanders did, and became the real progressive alternative in 2020.
I still believe that she has the best chance of being the “unity” candidate that can bring the sides of the party together in the fall and beat Trump. Unfortunately, fear and the media have pushed everyone to Biden, and even if he wins in November, he won’t make any of the necessary structural changes that would make sure a Trump can never be elected again.