There’s a really cool opportunity in Texas right now. The Texas House plays an important role in redistricting and Dems have a real change to flip it. I’d like for us to donate to this effort, but I’m not sure what group is the right one to give to. Sam Wang is giving to the Dallas County Democratic Party and Tarrant County Democratic Party and I may just do that. If there’s something better to give to, let me know.
More generally, this is a little morbid I realize, but COVID is a total nightmare in the Sun Belt and likely to get worse, so I’m thinking of hitting races in states where it’s a total shit show harder as opportunities could pop up. I’ll have more about this later. We’ll definitely give to Jaime Harrison in South Carolina – he’s already raising tons though and I want to read more about it before deciding how much of a priority to make it.
In the meantime, I’m raising more for Steve Bullock in Montana. Right now, AZ and CO are very likely Dem pick-ups with Maine and Montana toss-ups. It really could come down to this race and it’s great bang for your buck. Lots of enthusiasm the first time I threw these out there.
Downpuppy
I dunno, man. Did you ever see Dallas from a DC-9 at night?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I’m wondering if (and hoping) Harrison can have down-ticket coattails like O’Rourke did in Texas.
Staggering to me that Collins is only in the toss-up category. A while back, I think the summer of ’18, William Cohen did a big media push after he headed up that letter signed by a bunch of grandees that essentially subtweeted trump by calling on Congress (read: Republicans) to remember their oath to the Constitution (stand up to the corrupt fucker). It was weak tea, but Cohen did a lot of media and got pretty emo, declaring “I am a Republican, I am not a Donald Trump Republican”. I wanted one anchor to follow up with “Are you a Susan Collins Republican?” but of course… that might’ve been rude, or something. If he doesn’t endorse Gideon, it will just prove to have been so much balloon juice
UncleEbeneezer
As someone with Dad in SC and in-laws in Dallas, I approve both of these suggestions. I would Especially LOVE to hear my Limbaugh-listening Dad whine if Harrison can pull the upset in SC!
Benw
LEELOO DALLAS MULTI PASS
youtube.com/watch?v=NVPLqbWXdDA
patrick II
Politics is always about life and death. Ask the millions of uninsured in red states. It is just usually to impolite to say.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Claire McCaskill is straight up out of fucks to give
Kropacetic
Not counting the violence against our democracy and the resulting death and destruction. Also, too, just the first offense our justice system was arsed to do anything about.
piratedan
Az is another opportunity lurking. Ducey has completely fucked up to the point where people are telling him to fuck a cactus w/o protection. All things GOP could be in play this year in that we’ve already shown strength here in the congressional districts (that were drawn fairly, ty voters) and now I am getting the sense that the gerrymander that exists at the state level may be in danger (based on the data that I am seeing and the tea leaves I have been sifting thru) and not only is the possibility to pick off a couple of Congressional seats and the Senate seat in play, the state lege is too. Also helps that a Dem won the Sec of state position so shenanigans should be at a minimum and the elections at the state level should be fair and run competently (because when the GOP did they sucked). We’re still waiting on a primary election here to sort out who some of the challengers will be but the opportunity will be here. I recommend blogforarizona.net to keep fingers on the pulse of things in the state.
Kineslaw
This is a good story talking about the Texas legislature. It only takes a pick-up of nine seats to turn the House blue. Five of those are in Tarrant County, and seven in DFW, so one media market can have a lot of returns.
Tarrant County is the largest urban county in the U.S. that hasn’t turned blue, but Beto got more votes than Cruz in 2018. The county is only getting more diverse and Democrats are gaining ground.
Gin & Tonic
@Kropacetic: I’d bet real cash money that Roger Stone has the name and number of every rent boy Lindsey has ever used.
catclub
The GOP had no problem saying the ACA meant death panels.
catclub
@Kropacetic: The other lie is that Roger Stone is in his 70’s.
he is 67.
cmorenc
How is Maine US Senate (Collins seat) a “toss-up” – I had been under the impression that Collins’ approval among Maine registered voters was substantially underwater. Is there a 3rd party spoiler in the race that might facilitate Collins just barely squeaking through with a bare plurality, the way Maine got stuck with re-electing the vile Gov. LePage? Or did I miss Collins’ furrowing her brow-of-concern enough to convince lots of doubters that they might change their mind and vote for her after all?
Ruviana
@catclub: Thank you! I was coming here to post that. I’m 5 months older than Roger Stone and I’m 68. At least be accurate!
PsiFighter37
@cmorenc: Not a lot of polling. Gideon also needs to beat the BernieBro choice here in the primary (Betsy Sweet), which I am not sure is a given – more Sweet signs than for Gideon in Portland, not that this means anything.
trollhattan
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Wow, senatorial niceties are cancelled until further notice. “You POS” is the most succinct description of Graham I’ve seen.
trollhattan
@Ruviana:
I suspect HGH et al use is what gives Rog his 80 going on 100 look. That and his 19th century fashion sense.
Aleta
Thanks DougJ. You’re a ray of hope shining in, no joke.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Yes, but it’s a nightmare because the REAL Americans decided on collective suicide rather than suffer the indignation of have to be nice to other people.
Redshift
@piratedan:
That’s a good point. The danger with a gerrymander is that it works by giving your opponent a large margin in a few seats and yourself a narrower margin in more seats, so a big enough wave it can turn against you.
Evap
The thing about gerrymandering is that it’s designed so that one side wins by big margins, so lots of wasted votes, while the other side wins by small margins. In a wave election, those small margin seats can flip. Live by the gerrymander, die by the gerrymander, GOP scumbags!
Kent
I lived in TX for over a decade from 2003 to 2016 and saw a lot of it turn bright red through some combination of racist tea party anti-Obama shitstorm combined with utter neglect on the part of white Democrats. The black and Hispanic Democrats kept plugging along through all that time period but the white Democrats kind of just shrugged and said “meh…too much trouble to bother with” and didn’t do any organizing in any suburban areas in any way.
As for where the pockets of opportunity are today? Tarrant county sounds right. That is Fort Worth which has always been the more conservative city to Dallas. But the area has grown tremendously in the past decade and it isn’t the old Fort Worth anymore. Many newer urban neighborhoods there and growing diversity. I would think also the burbs around Houston which are not nearly as white as they used to be. But then there should be professionals on the ground who know all this much better than me. I also don’t know how gerrymandered those legislative districts are. If they are largely suburban and exurban with slices of the inner city, or if they are more rationally drawn. That makes a difference.
Kropacetic
This couldn’t possibly happen. Maine has instant run-off voting. Collins is a very longstanding incumbent, though, and that counts for something.
Redshift
@cmorenc: Gideon is only slightly up in polling against Collins, and races tend to tighten. I think a candidate needs to be up by more against a long-time incumbent to be considered favored.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
(full disclosure, I have spent a total of five days in Maine in my life, even though I would dearly love to go back, maybe for good) something I noticed in the Lieberman-Lamont primary, and that Dan Pfeiffer said on a recent podcast is pretty widespread among regular voters, is the idea that incumbents are entitled to reelection barring some extraordinary misconduct.
One thing I’ve always heard about Collins is that she learned constituent services from one of the best in that regard: Olympia Snowe (even thought they don’t like each other). It’s a small state and Collins is from what I understand very well known, on a personal level, by a lot of voters. When I was reading Eschaton, there was a commenter there who hated Snowe and Collins with a passion but still referred to them as “Olympia” and “Susan”.
I thought Lieberman’s support of the Iraq War was extraordinary misconduct, but even a lot of Dem primary voters disagreed. I think Collins is an abomination, but a lot of Mainers may remember that time a Collins staffer got them their expedited passport in less than a week.
Edmund Dantes
@cmorenc: nope. Rank choice voting will be in effect for Susan I believe. So third party isn’t as big an issue in past.
Redshift
@Kent: Hmm, would it be useful to support Beto O’Rourke’s organization, then? I thought of that because the email me a lot, but didn’t bring it up at first because they’re not supporting candidates. But they seem to be all about doing organizing and voter registration
fake irishman
@piratedan:
Totally agree on AZ. Both houses of the ledge sit on the knife’s edge from Dem control. Not only did the good guys pick up a Senate seat in 2018, but they also grabbed two other important statewide office: State Superintendent of Schools (always important) and Secretary of State (controls mechanics of voting), they also nabbed a seat on the public utilities commission (do you like clean energy?) So invest away statewide and downballot here.
Kineslaw
@Kent: Based on election forecasts, a lot of the districts are drawn to include enough suburbs that the gerrymander could be responsible for flipping a lot of seats.
Live by the gerrymander, die by the gerrymander.
rikyrah
Oh LarryO ?
JPL
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Lindsay just trying to please his master.
Chetan Murthy
Last cycle, I gave $$ to Annie’s List: annieslist.com/
Also the Texas Organizing Project.
hotshoe
Good, live, version of that song:
youtube.com/watch?v=8qaDgDTjb2U
Joe Ely looks like he’s having a great time, and his singing voice is damn fine. Better than the version he recorded from 1981.
Although, too bad, Joe skips the relevant verse:
Richard Guhl
Here’s the Senate races to which I have given: Gideon in Maine; Greenfield in Iowa, Bullock in Montana; Cunningham in North Carolina; Harrison in South Carolina; Ossoff in Georgia; Bollier in Kansas; Gross in Alaska; and Jones in Alabama. Jones may be a lost cause, but he has done right and deserves a thank you.
Kent
Yeah, maybe. I’m not close enough to TX politics anymore to really weigh in. Certainly promising local candidates are worthy of support but I’m not close enough anymore to suggest which organizations are doing the most good. I was heavily involved in Waco area Dem politics for a decade but nothing on a wider scale. And that was an endless losing battle from 2003 to 2016 as the area slowly shifted more and more red due to redistricting and anti-Obama racism and toxic evangelical politics which were also mostly just cover for racism.
Yutsano
@Richard Guhl: Here’s the thing to remember about Jones: every poll showed him behind Moore up until the election. A surge of minority votes in the cities pushed him over the top. Right now the only polls I have seen showed 44-33. That’s a lot of indecision especially since their primary isn’t over yet. And I still think Jones can show Tuberville to be so politically naïve that Doug Jones just might pull it off. And if he can get that surge again he could just make it.
rikyrah
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Go GO GO!!
Tell that truth
rikyrah
@Kineslaw:
Yes…let’s go for the White Whale of Democratic Party Politics – TEXAS
rikyrah
@Richard Guhl:
You are right. He has done a good job.
WaterGirl
@Redshift: I would love for us to raise some funds for Beto’s organization here. From what I’ve read, it seems like they are doing very good work.
WaterGirl
@rikyrah: I am definitely not counting Doug Jones out this time around. 77% have an opinion, that 23% who don’t. Plus he’s a decent man, and I bet there are a lot of people who will be ready to vote for decency again in November.
TheOBP
@Kineslaw: my partner largely grew up in Tarrant County, and on election night back then, when I read her the news that Beto beat Cruz there, she nearly fell out of her chair. It wasn’t enough that time, but promising for the near future!
Hungry Joe
@Downpuppy: Joe Ely! LOVE Joe Ely!
Miss Bianca
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
There you have it, ladies and gentlemen. I may have to swipe this line to use against the local MAGAts who insisted on an unauthorized July 4 parade here (they called it a “protest”, because FREEDUMB, and “we won’t live in fear!” dontcha know).
We just had our first new positive tests this week – this after having had a grand total of 2 this entire plague season. Speaking of morbid, I am betting they start to spike in about 2 weeks from the 4th – right in time for the rodeo that the Saddle Club has insisted on going ahead with. Good times! >:<
Kenneth Fair
In terms of the places most likely to have flippable state house seats, Tarrant County (Fort Worth) and Dallas County are good choices. There are also vulnerable GOP seats in Harris County (Houston), Fort Bend County (SW Houston), and Collin County (N Dallas).
Ocotillo
@Kent: If you were in McLennan county, do you recall that billboard driving on I35 southbound with the menacing looking Obama titled “Socialist”? That thing must have been there his whole administration
mrmoshpotato
What can I get ya, hon?
A cuppa coffee and two cans of beans.
patroclus
@Kent: Well, I went to TCU (in Ft. Worth) and have spent a lot of time there and, historically, Ft. Worth was never as angry wacko conservative as Dallas County was. It was for a long time a federal/Union outpost (hence the name) and was notoriously a saloon town, with all the wildness and diversity that that implies. Unlike Dallas, it was a strongly Democratic area in the New Deal and stayed loyal to FDR even when Dallas was going AWOL. It remained that way up until 1978 when everything went to hell. It briefly came back for Ann Richards once but the organized Democratic party vanished with W and the Republicans became the Ruling Party everywhere.
Since then, Dallas itself (the city) has been behaving like a regular large city; gradually turning blue, while the burbs have remained staunchly GOP. Ft. Worth, being smaller and resembling a large mass of suburbs itself, has moved more slowly. Tarrant County going blue would still be a shocker to me, but maybe that’s a result of Trump losing massive support in the suburbs countrywide.
MagdaInBlack
@mrmoshpotato:
Gonna be an interesting day for Mr Goya Beans For Breakfast…..and for those around him.
Gretchen
Barbara Bollier is a great Senate candidate in Kansas. She is polling even with Kris Kobach, but he hasn’t won the primary yet. There are 6 R candidates facing off in the August primary. The party is hoping for Roger Marshall, but one of the Trump candidates is running attack ads against him. So even if he wins the nomination he will be weakened. One of the attack ads calls for « electrifying the wall », and then says, don’t cry liberals, it’s just a joke.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@mrmoshpotato: @MagdaInBlack: one of the seven hundred diets I tried and failed at recommended black beans for breakfast. Two cans of beans is a lot. of fucking. beans.
and speaking of Goya, this is funny
Kent
Yep, and there was just endless anti-Hillary and anti-Obama crap in all the local stores, even HEB. Postcards, t-shirts etc. When we moved to Waco in 2003 we had a superb Dem congressman (Chet Edwards), Dem mayor, Dem district attorney, and lots of random Dem local politicians. By the time I left in 2016 the only local Dems of any kind were only Black and Hispanic local pols representing Black or Hispanic city or county districts. Not one single white Dem of any kind. The entire white population of Waco and McLennan county went on one giant racist GOP bender starting in the 2010 mid-terms and continuing at least until today. I knew plenty of local white Dems but they were mostly fellow teachers and we were severely outnumbered.
MagdaInBlack
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
The last time I bought Goya dry black beans, they hatched……things.
I am crackin’ up at all the Magats who are now gonna live on beans and sofrito.
Yutsano
@MagdaInBlack: I live in a heavily Hispanic area. Getting alternatives to Goya should be easy. Plus the Mexican supermarket has a great taqueria. Mmm…chicharron…
Sister Golden Bear
@hotshoe: Joe Ely has always been far better live than in his studio albums. FWIW, his two live albums are a great way to experience that highlights of his career.
Matt
Spend some money on Alaska…it’s a cheaper media market…and all three race (Prez, Senate, House) are in workable distances for Dems to sneak through…
WaterGirl
@Kenneth Fair:
That’s very helpful. Do you happen to know the organizations that are working in those areas?
WaterGirl
@Yutsano: So all the people on the internet who are asking for recipes for making their favorite spices so they can continue to eat the foods they love are somehow cancelling hispanic culture because they won’t buy from Goya?
Albatrossity
Please consider Dr. Barbara Bollier, running against a shitlist of GOP idiots who want to fill Pat Robert’s vacated seat in the Senate. A dem winning a Senate seat in Kansas would send a very strong message to the cultists that their days are over. Here’s a recent blog article with more information.
James E Powell
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
The difference is that Lieberman had broad support among Republicans. He became the de facto Republican candidate or we would have been rid of him.
And I don’t know a thing about Maine, but I get the impression that Sara Gideon is no Ned Lamont.
Kay
They’re all such chickenshits. Soft, coddled cowards. They won’t even put their name on this spineless denial.
How hard do these prosecutors have to work not to see all this crime happening right under their noses and why are we paying them?
Kay
Another one. The NYTimes gives this woman a platform to make excuses for why she supported Donald Trump and explain that she DID not support Donald Trump’s plan to SELL Puerto Rico. All of this happened in 2017 but she has miraculously decided to come clean about it right as it starts to appear Trump might lose the next election.
Oh, the high ethical standards! I’m tearing up at how TORTURED and CONFLICTED all these people are.
When they tell you they’re planning on putting children in cages that’s when you speak up. Not three years later.
If his polling worsens I suppose we’ll be treated to more sad tales of their ethical dilemmas. It’s tragic, really.
TS (the original)
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Is she ever – just reading her twitter feed and came across this one
James E Powell
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Also too, if the good people of Maine decide to re-elect a full on Trump & Kavanaugh supporter there is nothing we can do about it. The excuse that an incumbent should be re-elected unless they’ve done some horrible thing is bullshit. It’s just a way for people to avoid explaining why they voted for a bad person. It reminds of people in Wisconsin with their “We don’t like Scott Walker but recall elections offend our notions of process.” It was just bullshit. Sure, they said it, because that’s how they get around explaining the fact that they actually liked a horrible person.
It’s like Hillary’s emails or Goldman Sachs speeches. There are people who float around just waiting for someone to give them a socially useful excuse for their ignorance & bigotry.
Cf. “A guy I want to have a beer with” – The reason to vote for a guy who doesn’t drink anymore and when he did, he never drank with lowlifes like you!
Steeplejack
The real Roger Stone:
Yutsano
@WaterGirl: If you’re Rafael “Born in Canada” Cruz” then yes, you believe exactly that. Of course the tweet is a complete lie (Goya wasn’t founded until 1936) which should be zero shock to everyone here.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Yutsano: it’s so silly I feel a little silly even copying and pasting this, but…
this is how Senator “First-Tier Ivies Only” tries to sound like a regular fella, by lying about his dead grandparents’ shopping list
ETA: also, I tend to just buy the whichever black beans are cheapest– am I missing something?
MagdaInBlack
@Yutsano:
I too am blessed with several good Hispanic grocers, and yes sir, one has a fantastic in house taqueria ?
Ken
No. Different brands often come out of the same factory, with the label as the only difference.
Kent
I’m a former Alaska resident. I would be shocked if any statewide races in Alaska are within reach of Democratic wins. It is more red than Texas.
Kent
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Nope. And if you have a instant-pot you can make your own very easily. Just toss in some salt, dried chilis and garlic to taste.
Richard Guhl
@Yutsano: I suspect the national DSCC won’t pour a lot of resources into Jones’ campaign, which makes individual contributions even more important.
Miss Bianca
@James E Powell: I personally, if I lived in Maine, would count Collins’s support of Trump and Kavanaugh as the horrible thing that disqualifies her. Whether it’s horrible enough to offset good constituent service is something that only the non-hypothetical voters of Maine can determine.
I have two sisters who live in Maine – one is a staunch Democrat who loathes her. The other is a staunch Republican I actually haven’t spoken to in years who doubtless thinks Collins is A-OK and probably if anything a little too liberal. So, *shrug*…got no idea how this will turn out. Have to ask the sis I still speak to, I guess.
MuckJagger
Whether it’s Gideon or Sweet in Maine, won’t either one of them get the spoils of that massive $20.20 “Collins, get the fuck OUT” campaign last year?
Every race is important, but the Democratic nominee for Collins’ senate seat won’t be going in with an empty war chest. There may be some folks who need the money more.
Jesse
Doug, please do add the Texas race. The link in the post is for Bullock.
Would there be a way to make a separate section of the page where all current donation campaigns are listed? (Maybe there already is one and I don’t see it.)
fool's errand
State legislatures are key this year because of redistricting, and targeted giving by BJ readers could make a huge difference in those lower-cost races. EveryDistrict takes a “moneyball” approach and analyzes where donations could make the most impact to turn state legislatures blue. Their Candidates page includes several Texas and Arizona candidates), and they have a list of the most high-impact races, updated weekly.
My girlfriend and I have been especially impressed by Brandy Chambers in Texas and Coral Evans in Arizona, but many of the candidates would be worthy recipients, or we could just donate to EveryDistrict and let them distribute the funds.
everydistrict.us/candidates/2020-candidates/