Political Fundraising

Fired Up and Ready to Go?

Quick Overview

Political fundraising season is upon us!

It feels like the zeitgeist is shifting.  I feel a sense of hope, but there’s an enormous amount of work to do.

We’re just getting started with our efforts this election to raise funds and identify and encourage volunteer opportunities, at least from a public perspective!  But there’s a lot going on behind the scenes that you never see before we even get to this point.

We have been in touch with most of our former partners to determine whether they’re a good fit for this election cycle.

We have phone calls lined up with them this week, so stay tuned for more posts addressing our strategy for supporting those groups and candidates where our money can make the most difference.  These posts will sketch out the first piece of the strategy as of now – which states we want to focus on, and why.

We will adjust details of the strategy, as we always do, as events unfold.

As always, our goal is to be as strategic as possible to ensure that our money and efforts are meaningful and have an impact, not like grains of salt in the ocean.

The Strategy

The strategy for a mid-term election differs somewhat from Presidential years.  The concept of “swing state” for the electoral college is not as relevant.  Instead, we’re looking at states where our GOTV funding efforts would make the most difference:

• competitive Senate seats
• competitive House seats
• state legislatures that can be flipped
• key executive offices like governor, secretary of state, attorney general
• supermajorities that can be busted, or gained!
• state Supreme Court majorities to retain, or flip!
• meaningful ballot initiatives

And guess what?  A lot of the same states still show up!  This post will provide a rundown on the states where supporting registration and GOTV efforts will have the most impact.

Below are the states where funding boots on the ground – as opposed to individual candidates – will have meaningful impact on multiple fronts.  

The Key States

Michigan

There’s a lot going on in Michigan!

• Statewide races. The Democratic Secretary of State, Attorney General and Governor are all term limited. All are critical to election protection.  The primary is August 26^th.
• Legislature. We could potentially gain a trifecta!  Dems are up one seat in the state Senate and down four seats in the statehouse.
• Congress.  There’s an open (currently Democratic) Senate seat, with three major Dem candidates in a primary race.  There are at least three competitive (as of now) House seats, including one open seat and one Republican toss up.
• Supreme Court. Two Dem seats are up, but the majority (6-1 Dem to Republican) is not threatened.  Still, it’s important to run up the margins wherever we can.

Wisconsin

On Wisconsin!  The Badger State is critical to, especially at the statewide level.

• Attorney General – Josh Kaul is up for reelection. In Wisconsin, the AG has election supervision responsibilities instead of the Secretary of State, so it’s a two-fer.  This is possibly an “early money” fundraiser along with the AZ state-wide seats.
• Governor – There is an open seat, as the current Democratic governor is termed out.  The primary is August 1.
• Legislature – Here’s the big one!  There is a great opportunity to pick up several seats in this – the first election since non-partisan redistricting.  Currently Republicans hold the Senate 18-15, and the House 54-45.  There is some real flipping potential with the new maps and a blue wave.
• Congress – There’s a vulnerable house seat held by idiot Republican Van Orden. We supported his opponent last cycle (Rebecca Cooke), who is running again.
• Supreme Court – There’s one Supreme Court seat vacated by a conservative; if another conservative wins, it won’t change the make up of the court, but if we win, it helps cement the majority for years.   I like our chances to win this one on April 7!
• Ballot Initiatives – There are also a couple of obnoxious ballot measures – one prohibiting the closure of churches during “health emergencies,” and the other prohibiting the government from granting “preferential treatment” based on race, gender, etc. A flaming defeat would warm the cockles of my heart.

Arizona

After Michigan and Wisconsin, Arizona may be the next most impactful state.

• Statewide races – Secretary of State Fontes, Governor Hobbs and AG Mayes are all up for reelection. We supported all three last cycle.  If you recall, Mayes won by less than 300 votes are a recount.  Our money clearly made a difference!
• State Legislature – There are opportunities to possibly flip or narrow the Republican leads. The Senate is 17-13 Republican, and the House is 33-27 Republican. Our of our partners, Worker Power, is very focused on targeting vulnerable state legislative districts with their registration and GOTV campaigns.
• Congress – There are two vulnerable Republican Congressional seats: Ciscomani in SE Arizona, and a Republican seat held by David Schweikert, who is running for Governor.  In a wave year, Republican Eli Crane may be vulnerable as well. His district has a substantial Native American presence.  There is no open Senate seat.

Nevada

Nevada is another key state, even if less so than those above.

• Statewide races – Cisco Aguilar (D) is up for re-election as Secretary of State. The AG is open (the Democrat was term limited), and the Governor is Republican, but vulnerable.  The Legislature is solidly Democratic, so not an issue.
• Ballot Initiative – Question 6 is on the ballot to enshrine abortion rights in the Nevada Constitution. It has to pass twice.  It already did in 2024.  This is so important.
• Congress – Three of Nevada’s four congressional districts are held by Democrats. One is somewhat vulnerable (Susie Lee), who we supported in the past.  We’ll keep an eye on that race for later.
• Supreme Court – The Nevada Supreme court has 7 non-partisan members. (Non-partisan in name only, of course.) Three are Republican, three are Democrats and the seventh isn’t affiliated, but her bio suggests a left lean (Public Defender, mental health advocate).  There are two retention seats up, both Republican.  Solidifying a majority would be great!

North Carolina

North Carolina is another impactful state, even if less so than the top three.

• Senate and House – Roy Cooper in NC is a real opportunity to pick up a Senate seat.  In NC we’re watching one vulnerable Democrat, Don Davis; otherwise the other seats seem safe, at least for now.
• State Houses – In North Carolina we can help bust/prevent a super-majority. There is a very narrow Republican super-majority in the North Carolina Senate, and the Republicans are currently one seat short of a super-majority in the House.  There is a Democratic governor, so this matters, notwithstanding the extreme gerrymandering of the state Government.   The state-wide offices are not up this cycle.
• Ballot Initiative – There’s an oppressive ballot initiative requiring photographic ID for all voters, and not just the ones voting in person.  Not good!
• Supreme Court – Anita Earls is up for reelection on the State Supreme Court. We must keep her on the State Supreme Court as well as keep our three Democratic judges on the State Appeals Court. We must hold these seats so that in 2028 we have the chance to take back the Supreme Court.  When Rs got the majority, they went back to the old gerrymandered maps, so, just like in Wisconsin, the State Supreme Court is the key to citizens being able to choose their candidates rather than the other way around.  Looking far into the future, the goal is to get a Dem majority on the Appeals Court. Every win provides the basis for future wins.

A Peek Ahead

It probably goes without saying, but the FIVE states above are not the only states we will be active in. 

The Senate and the House are key, of course.

Candidate fundraising?   We are always scouting candidates where our money can make a difference, especially those overlooked or underfunded by the big dogs.

On the local level, if we can help flip a state legislature or break a supermajority, we’ll consider it.  We’ll be watching Congressional races, with an eye on avoiding the marquee/bandwagon races and funding the stretch candidates who can win in a wave.  By way of example there, we’re in touch with the Dan Osborne Senate campaign in Nebraska to discuss helping to fund Nebraska field offices again.

As a general matter, we hold our fire on candidates until later in the year, except when we don’t!  Sometimes it’s early money and yeast and all that, especially for key local races.

What say you?   This election is so critical.  I am very much hoping that some of the discouragement I see in the comments won’t keep us from being The Little Engine That Could again this time around.

Anybody fired up and ready to go?

Fundraising Efforts – Part 1: Overview of Key StatesPost + Comments (37)