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We Did It – the $5,000 Angel Donor Check Is In the Mail – No, Really! (Four Directions)

Political Fundraising

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More and Better Democrats – A Long Shot Becomes a Potential Flip – Hello, Tennessee!

by WaterGirl|  November 10, 202511:50 am| 40 Comments

This post is in: Political Action, Political Fundraising, Targeted Political Fundraising 2025-26

Looking for something constructive to do while we await actually good information about what might or might not come out of the Senate?

A Democrat winning what has been a Republican House seat in TN would narrow their majority even more. You can write postcards for this House special election House in TN; you can contribute to this fundraiser; you can post the link to our thermometer on social media.  In case you want to share, here’s the direct link to the thermometer.

We are more than halfway to our $7,500 goal!

Yesterday’s post:

Flash Fundraising – A Long Shot Becomes a Potential Flip – Hello, Tennessee!

Here are some highlights.

  • Republican Congressman (TN-07) resigned from his “safe” seat in July.
  • Bruising Republican primary in early October.
  • Republican candidate ties himself closely to Trump.
  • Community organizer and state representative wins the 4-way Democratic primary.
  • Elections results last Tuesday happened.
  • Suddenly the “safe” Republican seat isn’t so safe!
  • Cook has this seat at R+10.

Given the current environment, this is winnable!

  • Aftyn Behn is a fighter and a progressive
  • She was polling within 8 points of the Republican even before last Tuesday’s election.
  • The dstrict was part of an egregious Republican gerrymander that split Nashville into three separate districts.
  • The district has a substantial military presence in Clarksville, who are likely displeased with potentially losing pay.
  • It’s not uncommon for military families to be on SNAP.

Gerrymandering can backfire in a wave election, bitches!

Nice of the Republican candidate to tie himself so closely to Trump, don’t you think?

Suddenly lots of dark money flowing in from the Republican sides to keep this seat Republican.

We want to get Aftyn our funds before early voting starts this Wednesday!

Who doesn’t need insurance?

Would it be great to have one more Democratic vote in the House?

Not only that, but a win here – in TN of all places! – could be our insurance policy if they can pressure one of the 4 Republicans to remove their signature from the Epstein discharge petition.

It’s one thing to be pressured when you are the ONE VOTE that could make or break it.  There’s a lot less pressure if they have to get TWO OF YOU to fold.


Donate

More and Better Democrats – A Long Shot Becomes a Potential Flip – Hello, Tennessee!Post + Comments (40)

Flash Fundraising – A Long Shot Becomes a Potential Flip – Hello, Tennessee!

by WaterGirl|  November 9, 202512:20 pm| 90 Comments

This post is in: Political Action, Political Fundraising, Targeted Political Fundraising 2025-26

On Wisconsin!

Meet Democrat Aftyn Behn!

Last Tuesday changed everything.

A special Congressional election in Tennessee that was flying under the radar and overshadowed by Virginia, New Jersey and the California initiative is suddenly front-and-center in a newly charged environment for the Dems.

How did we get here?

Republican Congressman Mark Green (who won the 7th District by 20 points) resigned in July to “take a job in the private sector” (can you say Republican grift?), opening up what the party assumed was a safe seat.

At the time, it probably did indeed seem safe!

Why the (misplaced) confidence?  The 7th District’s unholy birth resulted from a Republican gerrymandering effort that carved up liberal Nashville into three separate districts.  The 7th covers the western and northern parts of Davidson County, and a whole bunch of rural counties.  The other significant population center is Clarksville, Tennessee’s fifth largest city, with a substantial military population attributable to its proximity to Fort Campbell.

Trump won this district by 22 points in 2024.  Cook has it at R+10.

The Republican candidate, Mark Van Etta, survived an expensive and bruising primary (October 7) by tying himself closely to Trump.   (Anyone think he might be regretting that now?)

The Democrat, Aftyn Behn, squeaked out a plurality in a four-way contest.  Aftyn was a community organizer and state representative in Nashville.  Here’s how she was described by the Tennessee Outlook:

Behn ran as a progressive outsider, advocating that the only way a Democratic candidate could win the heavily Republican district was with an energized turnout.

She distinguished herself as “a firebrand attitude at debates”.

Here’s a link to Aftyn’s website.

There is plenty of dark money flowing in on the Republican side, including an unidentified donor who produced a commercial featuring Van Etta in his military uniform as a “MAGA warrior.”  That could backfire now!

Special Election on Dec 2 / Early voting starts this Wednesday

The special election will be held on December 2 (less than two months after the primary).

The Democrats are getting fired up.  DNC Chair Ken Martin is in Nashville this weekend hosting campaign and GOTV events for Aftyn.

It’s not the long-shot that the District’s raw numbers would suggest.  Polls before last week’s election showed the Republican with a 52-44 advantage – an entirely bridgeable gap with a fired-up electorate and substantial turnout.

We supported Virgin (oops, Virgil) Thornton in VA, who won with something like 51% of the vote.  We’ve made a difference before; maybe we can do it again!

We’d like to get Aftyn $7,500 in Balloon Juice bucks by this Wednesday – when early voting starts!

Right now is when the $ can do the most good!

Who doesn’t need insurance?

Would it be great to have one more Democratic vote in the House?

Not only that, but a win here – in TN of all places! – could be our insurance policy if they can pressure one of the 4 Republicans to remove their signature from the Epstein discharge petition.

It’s one thing to be pressured when you are the ONE VOTE that could make or break it.  There’s a lot less pressure if they have to get TWO OF YOU to fold.


Donate

Flash Fundraising – A Long Shot Becomes a Potential Flip – Hello, Tennessee!Post + Comments (90)

It’s Up To Us Now (as it always is!)

by WaterGirl|  November 7, 20259:17 am| 150 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Political Action, Politics, Targeted Political Fundraising 2025-26

Big wins!

Wouldn’t it be nice if we could bask in our victories and take a nice, long rest?  Sign me up for that!

But it’s up to us now.  Just as it was last week, and just as it will be next week. And next year.   It’s up to us.

Marc Elias, Democracy Docket

In my 35 years as an election lawyer, I’ve seen good election nights and bad ones. Last night was a very good one — for both Democrats and democracy. Democrats won everything, everywhere, all at once.

They captured two governorships — in New Jersey and Virginia — in commanding fashion. They won every statewide race in Virginia and gained 13 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates.

In Pennsylvania, three Democrats facing retention elections on the state Supreme Court easily prevailed, solidifying a pro-voting majority on the court for the foreseeable future. In New York City, not only did the Democratic nominee win, but the Republican candidate came in a distant third with less than 10% of the vote.

In Georgia, two Democrats flipped seats on the statewide Public Service Commission — marking the first statewide Democratic victory in a non-federal race in nearly two decades. In Mississippi, Democrats broke the Republican supermajority in the state legislature.

On the democracy front, the wins were even bigger. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting ballot measure [Prop 50] passed by nearly 30 points. Meanwhile, Republicans’ effort to use the referendum process to impose voter ID in Maine failed by a similar margin.

In short:

  • Democrats won every key race
  • They did so with high turnout
  • Republicans cannot claim that their voters stayed home

In Virginia and New Jersey, over half the people said Trump had an impact on their voting.  I believe the actual numbers were 52% and 53%.  As I recall, the breakdown within those percentages was 15% and 17% voting FOR TRUMP, and all the rest were using the votes to make a statement AGAINST TRUMP.

That’s all good news!

What comes next, after our big wins on Tuesday?

Marc Elias, again:

History has taught us that this is precisely when Donald Trump is most dangerous — and when Republicans turn to voter suppression, election subversion and worse. With the 2026 midterm elections less than a year away, Trump is already plotting his next moves.

Here’s what Marc Elias believes we all need to prepare for:

  1. Republicans will falsely claim they lost because of fraud.
  2. Trump will try to ban several popular methods of voting.
  3. Republicans will further exploit the levers of federal power.
  4. Trump will claim the power to count ballots, tabulate results and certify elections.
  5. Extreme Republican gerrymandering will accelerate.
  6. Republicans will ask courts to legitimize their actions.
  7. Political prosecutions will increase.
  8. The legacy media will fail us.

I tried to find at least one of those 8 that I could disagree with.  Tried, and failed.


On Balloon Juice, we always take a break from political fundraising between Thanksgiving and the end of January, and that will be true again this year.

Trump may be plotting his next moves – he and his minions most certainly are – but we are also plotting ours!

So we won’t be fundraising, but we will be reporting on our efforts in 2025, and talking about some of our plans for political fundraising in 2026.

I, for one, and thrilled that we get to go into what will be a period of rest (except for planning!) with these huge victories under our belts and with the wind at our back.

As always, win or lose, I would always rather be us than them.

It’s Up To Us Now (as it always is!)Post + Comments (150)

Final Push in Virginia – National Ground Game and the Youth Vote at Virginia Tech!

by WaterGirl|  October 26, 202512:17 pm| 70 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Political Action, Political Fundraising, Politics, Targeted Political Fundraising 2025-26

Election day is November 4 and Virginia is more important than ever. 

This off-year election gives us the chance to make the Old Dominion state the next Democratic trifecta.  Not to mention that Virginia is a bastion of reproductive rights in the Old South.

Balloon Juice peeps have done our part so far.

  • helped fund Four Directions in their expansion into Virginia to work with the Native vote there.
  • raised funds for two flippable seats in Virginia.
  • National Ground Game is the third leg of our stool in Virginia!

Dollars?

  • raised over $30,000, plus $40k in matching funds for Four Directions
  • raised over $8,000 for Kimberly Pope Adams, who is now projected to win.  (fingers crossed!)
  • raised over $5,000 for Virgil Thornton, who is on the verge of moving from toss-up to projected win by a very slim margin.

Side note: auction and raffle winners – have you received your quilts?

NEW @statenavigate.org poll in VA HD-86

GOV | 🔵Spanberger +5
LG | 🔵Hashmi +1
AG | 🔵Jones +1
HoD | 🔵Thornton +6

statenavigate.org/new-poll-sho…

[image or embed]

— Chaz Nuttycombe (@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social) October 21, 2025 at 12:58 PM

THERMOMETER REMOVED BECAUSE WE HAVE MET OUR GOAL, AND HAVE FULLY FUNDED THEIR ACTIVITIES FOR VIRGINIA. YAY YOU GUYS!

And in late-breaking news, Virginia Democrats are holding a special session tomorrow to draw a new Congressional map that could net us two or three additional seats in 2026.

Jay Jones, running for Attorney General, had a slight lead 4 days ago, but is slipping.  He’s a complicated candidate, but he beats the hell out of any Republican.  We need the AG in the Democratic column to actively support the new congressional map that could help us make up 2 or 3 of the seats the Rs are trying to steal with their TX gerrymandering.

All of this requires electing Abigail Spanberger for Governor and the Democrats retaining (and expanding) their razor-thin 51-49 majority in the House of Delegates.  (Senate seats are not up for re-election until 2027).


Let’s talk more about the ground game.

We helped National Ground Game register and turn out voters in Florida’s two Congressional special elections in April.

We had started to raise money for their fun and creative effort to counter-program high profile Charlie Kirk rallies on Virginia college campuses.  They were bringing in liberal influencers and Tik Tok celebrities with widespread youth appeal to counter the venom spewed by Turning Point USA (as well as register voters).

For obvious reasons, they needed to pivot in the wake of Kirk’s death.  They stepped back temporarily out of respect for the situation and to avoid adding any fuel to the overwrought martyrdom fire.  I stopped actively promoting the fundraising to give them time to regroup and make arrangements to get back into Virginia before the election.  Nevertheless, to date we have raised $4,225 for Ground Game in Virginia.

And now we’re back in the game – and with our funds, National Ground Game is  going back into Virginia!  Ground Game has jumped the bureaucratic hurdles to obtain permission to hold a get-out-the-vote event on the campus of Virginia Tech in Blacksburg featuring.

The rally will feature, among others, popular live-streamer and political commenter Destiny, who is sure to be a big draw with the yutes.  Although early voting has already started, the event will fire up college voters to turn up at the polls, provide them with late registration information, and sign them up as future volunteers.

So we are funding a big, celebratory Democratic presence on campus, days before the election!!

But wait, there’s more.  Ground Game will circulate flyers promoting House of Delegates candidate and challenger Lily Franklin.  Lily was highly recommended to us by Good Kim (see below) as an excellent campaigner and top-notch future representative.  But Lily was (fortunately) well-financed without us, so we raised funds for Virgil Thornton, hoping for a flip there.  Looks like we chose well because that seat has show as a toss-up until just a day or two ago.  Anyway, this is our chance for us to help pull Lily Franklin over the finish line, as well.

With so many fingers crossed, it’s hard to type!

The National Ground Game projects a total cost of $6,500 to underwrite this event, which includes permits, insurance, transportation, security, some paid staff, volunteer meals and related expenses.   I’ve set our goal at $7,500 because when does anything like this ever come in exactly at, or under budget?

We have a $500 angel in the wings!   pat’s Angel Match has been met, thank you!

We can do this TODAY, I hope!

Here’s hoping we can easily raise the additional funds to completely fund this fun and inspiring event.

 Things are looking good in Virginia.  Virginia election forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe has predicted a narrow win for BJ-supported candidate Virgil Thornton and a 5-point margin for Kimberly Pope Adams (our “Good Kim”), flipping two Republican held seats (h/t Blue Guitarist).  And he gives Democratic challenger Lily Franklin a 61% chance of flipping the Republican seat centered on Blacksburg and Virginia Tech.

There are 5 additional R-held seats projected to be very close – Consider volunteering to phone bank!

What they need are people to virtual phone bank from anywhere, and folks to canvass if you are in range to help with that.

Details at mobilize.us

Watch for a post early next year – and a zoom to meet the National Ground Game folks – to hear about their 2026 plans to resume counter-programming Turning Point rallies and organize stand-alone events of their own.  This is creative and exciting stuff, targeted at young voters whose political ideology is still in flux!

No Regrets!  That’s the name of the game.

 

Final Push in Virginia – National Ground Game and the Youth Vote at Virginia Tech!Post + Comments (70)

Open Thread & Gentle Reminder: Last Call to Donate to Elect ‘Good Kim’ in Virginia

by WaterGirl|  September 21, 20254:48 pm| 37 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Targeted Political Fundraising 2025-26

Early voting started in Virginia on Friday.

As I write this, we are about $1,200 away from our goal of $7,500 for Kimberly Pope Adams, and I still have hope that we can make that goal.

Either way, we’ll end our fundraising for Kimberly Pope Adams at 10 am on Monday morning.

Dollars go a long way in these Statehouse races, and the funds we have raised have already made a difference in what they have been able to do.

There’s a big push to try to win Virginia with early voting.  Wouldn’t that be nice!


Donate

 

Open thread!

Open Thread & Gentle Reminder: Last Call to Donate to Elect ‘Good Kim’ in VirginiaPost + Comments (37)

Virginia Fundraising Update

by WaterGirl|  September 17, 20256:23 pm| 15 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Targeted Political Fundraising 2025-26

Big thanks to our anonymous Balloon Juice Angel!

I thought I would share an update on how things stand after the anonymous Angel match yesterday, and where I’m thinking we’ll go from here.

I think we’ll take Virgil Thornton off the board as soon as we hit $5,000.

As I write this, we are about $360 away from our revised goal of $5,000!

Virgil Thornton has no idea who or what Balloon Juice is at this point, and I’m certain that our $5,000 will give us a huge boost in his effort to unseat the only Black Republican in the VA House of Delegates.

Early voting starts in 2 days.  Sept 19.

As I write this, we are $2,000 away from our goal of $7,500 for Kimberly Pope Adams, and I hope we can make our goal.

Either way, I think we’ll end our fundraising for Kimberly Pope Adams at whatever time I wake up on Monday morning.

I’ll contact Kim on Monday and let her know that we have completed our fundraising for her for this cycle.  Dollars go a long way in these Statehouse races, and whatever we raise will make a big difference!

Thermometers to donate are in the sidebar.

National Ground Game

After Monday, we’ll have just 6 weeks left before the November elections.

I’ll be talking with the folks at National Ground Game tomorrow – I want Virginia to be a wake-up call for the people currently running the show in Washington.

I hope to have an update from Four Directions later this week.

 

 

Virginia Fundraising UpdatePost + Comments (15)

Early Voting in Virginia Starts in 3 Days

by WaterGirl|  September 16, 20254:00 pm| 28 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Political Action, Politics, Targeted Political Fundraising 2025-26

Early voting in Virginia starts in 3 days!

Can we raise $3,000 for Kimberly Pope Adams by then?  

Because our funds are most valuable if they receive them by then.


Donate

.

It would also be great to raise the funds for Virgil Thornton, but if you can only afford to give to one of them, please consider donating to Good Kim so we can get her over the top this time.  She lost by fewer than 50 votes last time!

We have an anonymous Balloon Juice Angel who will match up to $20 per person for each candidate, up to a total of $250.

Just look around you and notice which states are protecting their people right now by passing laws and ensuring their people have access to vaccines, etc.  Those are states with Democratic trifectas.

With our help, Virginia can be one of those states!

Early Voting in Virginia Starts in 3 DaysPost + Comments (28)

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