Political Fundraising

The election is on Tuesday.  I think we made a difference!

The October fundraising numbers have been released in the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates races.  So of course we’re using them to read the tea leaves for our candidates and evaluate our contribution.

To recap, we supported two young promising African American candidates in the Hampton Roads metro area.  Our candidates – Michael Feggans and Kimberly Pope Adams – are challenging two first-term white Republican incumbents, Karen Greenhalgh and Kim Taylor.  We focused on Hampton Roads because it’s Virginia’s swingiest major metro (in the political sense), and not as awash in cash as races in the wealthier Northern Virginia DC suburbs.

Under Virginia law, campaign finance reports for (most of) October were submitted on October 26^th, the last report before the election.  There are a number of things we’re looking for:

• Are our candidates spending the money they’ve raised?
• How are they spending it?
• Are they sitting on a surplus, rather than using it for last minute GOTV efforts and media outreach?
• How does their fundraising compare to their opponents?

The results are encouraging.  We obviously can’t know if our candidates will win on Tuesday, but I think we made a difference!

If you’re interested in details, read on!  If not, jump to the comments, it’s an open thread!

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The Battle of the Two Kims – District 82

Republican Kim Taylor started October with a substantial bank balance of $562,086.  She raised $900,000 in October, including in-kind contributions.  She spent down her surplus, leaving her with an ending balance of only $51,039 as of October 26, 2023.

As a reminder, Kim Taylor is horrible on reproductive rights, and has ties to so-called “crisis pregnancy centers.”  I believe she even ran one of those clinics.  Ugh.

Most of her money came from Republican institutional sources and other dark money, including at least $265,000 from Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC.  She spent much of her funding with Medium Buying LLC, whose client list is a who’s who of odious MAGAts (Lauren Boebert, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Jim Jordan, etc).

Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams started the month with a balance of $355,000.  She slightly outraised Crisis Pregnancy Center Kim by bringing in just over $1,000,000 in October, all of which she spent.  Her ending balance was $210, 532.  “Good Kim” got an influx of money from the Virginia House Democratic Caucus and the Clean Virginia Fund, a pro-renewable energy PAC.  Many of her outlays were to Sage Media, which describes itself as providing “winning media buying strategies for progressive candidates and causes.”

Seems like money well spent.

What’s the take-away from these numbers?  The fundraising totals show that the candidates are running neck-and-neck. The optimistic spin on the tiny balance in Republican Kim’s bank is that she blew through all her money on a “Hail Mary” pass, leaving her with a paltry cash bank for last minute GOTV efforts.  Unless Dark Money rescues her at the last minute.

Democratic Kim was criticized earlier this year for lackluster fundraising, but she has obviously corrected course.  The delightfully named Virginia election forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe continues to rate this as a “toss up.”

What about Balloon Juice’s contribution?  Kim Adams received just over $50,000 in cash contributions of $100 or less in October.  Conservatively estimated (and angel contributions would not be included in the small donor figures), BJ raised at least 20% of that total.

Let’s talk about grass roots support for Forced Birth Kim.  She raised $896 (!!) in cash contributions of $100 or less, from a whopping 16 people!  

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Michael Feggans (D) v. Karen Greenhalgh (R) – District 97

We’ll spend a little less time deep-diving into the numbers of this race for a couple of reasons.  First, Nuttycombe has moved this race from toss up to “tilts Dem” based in part – we presume – on early voting turn out.  Second, the fundraising trends described below seem favorable for flipping this seat.

Greenhalgh is another “crisis pregnancy center” aficionado.  (God, I hate those people!)

Karen Greenhalgh started October with a healthy balance of $865,000 as a result of an influx of dark money in late September.  Michael Feggans had just over 1/3 of that amount, weighing in at $300,000.

But Feggans brought in an impressive $1,450,000 in cash and in-kind contributions in October vs. Greenhalgh’s $945,000.  And much of Greenhalgh’s dark money (including Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia) came in early in the month, before trickling off as the month progressed.  She made a small-ish last-minute media buy in late October, but was still sitting on $500,000 at the end of reporting period.  This could be interpreted as a loss of confidence by donors and the candidate (who wants to hoard her cash for other purposes)?  These numbers may be part of the reason why Nuttycombe upgraded this race for the Democrats.

Like Kim Pope Adams, Michael Feggans received significant donations from the Democratic Caucus and Clean Virginia.  He also got in-kind assistance from Workers Vote.  This organization is affiliated in some manner with Worker Power, which BJ supported last year in Arizona and Georgia.  He also made some major media buys with Sage Media, spending almost all of the money he brought in in October.  He retained a reasonable cushion for last minute GOTV efforts.  All of this looks good!

The October money really tipped the balance for Feggans.  The small donor numbers for these candidates are nearly the same as the Kims.  Feggans also brought in $50,000 in cash contributions of $100,000 or less, meaning BJ accounted for roughly 20% of that (all our donations were split equally).  Karen Greenhalgh has a few more friends in her book club than her Republican counterpart Kim Taylor:  She raised $1,389 in small donations from 29 people.

The election is on Tuesday.  I do think we made a difference!

So… this is a fairly deep-dive into fundraising and the numbers, but we wanted you to know where your money went and how it was spent (to the extent we can determine it from campaign reports).

Let us know in the comments if you found this interesting.  It may be that you guys are not as wonky about this stuff, so it may not be of much interest?

TOTALLY OPEN THREAD.

Balloon Juice Virginia Fundraising & Candidate Update (Open Thread)Post + Comments (42)