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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Finding joy where we can, and muddling through where we can’t.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Wake up. Grow up. Get in the fight.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

The snowflake in chief appeared visibly frustrated when questioned by a reporter about egg prices.

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

Everything is totally normal and fine!!!

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

If rights aren’t universal, they are privilege, not rights.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

“Until such time as the world ends, we will act as though it intends to spin on.”

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

You come for women, you’re gonna get your ass kicked.

Today’s gop: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

The “burn-it-down” people are good with that until they become part of the kindling.

Wait, what?

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

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You are here: Home / Archives for Economics / C.R.E.A.M.

C.R.E.A.M.

Open Thread: ICE (Rhinestone) Cowboy

by Anne Laurie|  March 24, 20268:27 pm| 31 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Immigration, Open Threads, Shitty Cops, Trump Crime Cartel

The Senate confirmed Markwayne Mullin as homeland security secretary on Monday.

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— The New York Times (@nytimes.com) March 23, 2026 at 9:00 PM

Gift link:

… Mr. Mullin, a Cherokee Nation member who was sworn in as Oklahoma’s junior senator in 2023, will take charge of the Homeland Security Department at a pivotal time. Recent polling has shown that Republicans’ advantage on immigration is shrinking and that most Americans believe that immigration agents have gone too far, especially after the fatal shootings of two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis in January. Mr. Mullin will have to balance the task of mending the agency’s image while also delivering on President Trump’s signature campaign promise of mass deportations.

He will also take the reins at a time when thousands of department employees are working without pay amid a partial government shutdown that has led to scenes of chaos at airports across the country. On Monday, Mr. Trump deployed more than 100 immigration agents to airports in an effort to ease long security lines as the ranks of Transportation Security Administration officers have thinned…

At his confirmation hearing, Mr. Mullin made clear that he was committed to fulfilling the administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration. But he also tried to strike a more cooperative tone, saying that immigration officers would generally no longer enter homes without a judicial warrant under his leadership. And he said the department would foster closer relationships with jails, suggesting a move away from sweeping operations in Democratic-led cities and states…

A close ally of Mr. Trump and a staunch defender of his policies, Mr. Mullin was sworn in as a senator after a decade of serving in the House. He had a brief stint as a mixed martial arts fighter and took over his family’s business, Mullin Plumbing, at the age of 20.

I would generally say that leaving the senate to take DHS director indicates that he doesn't want to be in the minority senate, tbh.

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) March 24, 2026 at 10:51 AM

There is also the possibility he saw Noem's grift racket and thought "maybe if I just do it a little bit less.."

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) March 24, 2026 at 10:59 AM

About that… Per the NYTimes, “How Trump’s Homeland Security Pick, a Prolific Investor, Got a Lot Wealthier in Congress” [gift link]

Our outnumbered Democrats went down fighting, and took markers:

I will hold Mullin to every one of his promises.

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— Senator Andy Kim (@kim.senate.gov) March 23, 2026 at 9:08 PM

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Both Kristi Noem and Markwayne Mullin share the one qualification Republicans value most: loyalty to the President over the law.
Mullin would continue the same failures.
That’s why I voted no — and why I won’t support another penny for ICE without real reform.

— Senator Angela Alsobrooks (@alsobrooks.senate.gov) March 23, 2026 at 8:51 PM

My Statement Opposing Markwayne Mullin as Secretary of Homeland Security

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— Senator Ed Markey (@markey.senate.gov) March 23, 2026 at 9:52 PM

that’s cool, hey, google lankford falls creek scandal if you want to know what kind of person vouches for markwayne mullin

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— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachine.com) March 24, 2026 at 3:45 AM

Does Mullin say that Trump lost the 2020 election and that Trump has been lying about that? If not, then he is not honest.

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— David Corn (@davidcorn.bsky.social) March 22, 2026 at 10:16 PM

Not great that Mullin voted for his own nomination.

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— ringwiss (@ringwiss.bsky.social) March 23, 2026 at 8:09 PM

Trump picked Mullin so he could look intelligent by comparison to the guy.

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— davidrlurie (@davidrlurie.com) March 24, 2026 at 2:31 PM

And, just like that Markwayne inherits all the legal problems Noem caused.

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— emptywheel (@emptywheel.bsky.social) March 24, 2026 at 5:09 PM

State election chiefs sent a letter to Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) asking him to confirm that ICE agents won’t be sent to the polls should he become the next DHS secretary, after he said last week he wouldn’t rule it out.
They requested a response by April 8.

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— Democracy Docket (@democracydocket.com) March 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM

Don't worry everyone, the Senate just confirmed Markwayne Mullin to be the new Secretary of Homeland Security and he's announced that as soon as he gets into office he's going to challenge all the problems to a fistfight.

— Kevin M. Kruse (@kevinmkruse.bsky.social) March 23, 2026 at 8:37 PM

I honestly believe this was the main reason Trump’s minions got him to nominate Mullin here: Sometime pretty soon, he’s gonna challenge Acting President Stephen Miller to a fistfight, and it will be TREMENDOUS CONTENT.

Also, examining his personal life is gonna be very rewarding for Our Very Serious Media, now:

Markwayne Mullin told a church that before he was dating his wife he physically threatened her boyfriends and refused to leave when she asked him to.

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— PatriotTakes 🇺🇸 (@patriottakes.bsky.social) March 24, 2026 at 4:23 PM

Mullin: “I can spank them and I’m still upset and they’ll come and crawl in my lap two minutes later and just hug on me. I’ve got to learn how to forgive more.”

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— PatriotTakes 🇺🇸 (@patriottakes.bsky.social) March 23, 2026 at 5:50 PM

MARKWAYNE MULLIN: [wearing cowboy hat that gets larger every 3 minutes] i beat the shit out of my son which was very easy to do because children are small, and have to do what you say
CROWD: [hooting, their own cowboy hats growing larger as well]

— compatibility layer (@guntoucher.bsky.social) March 23, 2026 at 7:14 PM

I swear "Markwayne Mullin" is an SNL skit they turned into a movie.

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec.bsky.social) March 23, 2026 at 11:06 PM


(A bad movie.)

Open Thread: ICE (Rhinestone) CowboyPost + Comments (31)

Open Thread: Corey Lewandowski, “Temu Jared”

by Anne Laurie|  March 20, 20264:57 pm| 210 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Grifters Gonna Grift, Open Threads, Trump Crime Cartel

This sounds like a job for JD Vance and the Fraud Taskforce!

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— Don Moynihan (@donmoyn.bsky.social) March 19, 2026 at 10:13 AM

“Temu Jared” was the epithet one BlueSky user attached to this post. Going back to Nixon’s White House (and probably the Harding Teapot Dome Scandal), it’s the grabby bagmen and low-level ‘plumbers’ who end up starting the indictments avalanche…

Per NBC, “Some DHS contractors told White House officials they were asked to pay Corey Lewandowski”:

More than a year ago, The GEO Group founder George Zoley asked for a meeting with Corey Lewandowski, a close ally of President Donald Trump who had just started a powerful position as a top adviser to Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.

As a titan of the private prison industry, GEO Group stood to benefit from Trump’s mass deportation agenda, which would require the federal government to spend tens of billions of dollars to transport, detain, monitor and deport undocumented immigrants. The company’s federal contracts in those areas already totaled more than $1 billion per year.

But Zoley and his advisers were worried that the road to securing new government contracts now ran through Lewandowski. The two had history: Lewandowski and Zoley had butted heads during the transition between Trump’s November 2024 election and his January 2025 inauguration, before Lewandowski officially worked for the government, according to two industry sources and one senior DHS official familiar with the matter.

During the transition, Lewandowski told Zoley that he wanted to be paid in exchange for protecting and growing GEO Group’s DHS contracts, according to a senior DHS official and three people familiar with their discussion. Zoley, concerned about the propriety of the ask, told Lewandowski he would have no part of it, the sources said, describing the confrontation as tense…

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Zoley offered to put Lewandowski on retainer — a recurring consulting fee — with GEO Group, according to two industry sources familiar with the matter.

Lewandowski balked, saying he wanted to be compensated based on the company’s new or renewed contracts with DHS, the two sources said…

Zoley declined, the two sources said. In the months that followed, the length of two of GEO Group’s federal contracts shrank, and currently several of its facilities that could house migrants sit idle, even as Congress and Trump have poured money into DHS to execute the mass deportation campaign. GEO Group officials believe that is tied to their not agreeing to Lewandowski’s solicitations, said a source familiar with the GEO Group officials’ thinking.

A senior DHS official told NBC News that within weeks of Lewandowski’s second meeting with Zoley, Lewandowski told him not to award more contracts to GEO Group. Lewandowski, through a spokesperson, denied that. Months later, in December 2025, GEO Group did receive a new contract for $121 million for services that help locate immigrants DHS is trying to find…

Now, lawmakers are asking about Lewandowski. Noem testified at a congressional hearing earlier this month in which lawmakers asked about her and Lewandowski’s role in government contracts. Trump called them both after and asked Lewandowski questions about his role in DHS contracting decisions, a source with knowledge of the call told NBC News…

It’s hard to feel sorry for a private prison company getting grifted (ALLEGEDLY) in the effort to purge immigrants from the country, but it’s also true that this random person ghost-running DHS without a confirmation process should not be doing that

— Amanda Katz (@katzish.bsky.social) March 19, 2026 at 10:35 AM

But wait — there’s MOAR!

Fantastic new clues here about both the DHS marketing contract scandal and the 10 jet purchases scandal. Surprise: They may be related! Both possibly engineered by one Dr. William A. Walters III.
Here's a thread linking to what we know about Walters. 1/
www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news…

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— Gillian Brockell (@gillianbrockell.com) March 19, 2026 at 1:58 PM

He first showed up in this May 2021 Vanity Fair piece about his State Dept. unit, OpMed, which mostly did med-evacs but played a key role in dispersing the Covid-19 vaccine worldwide.
It reads like a hero movie, fitting since the journo is a movie producer. 2/
www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/05…

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— Gillian Brockell (@gillianbrockell.com) March 19, 2026 at 1:58 PM

Three months later, VF had a bizarre follow-up with Walters claiming the US's exit from Afghanistan was a disaster because Antony Blinken hadn't given him a promised promotion, so he quit. This claim is…not well-sourced, to put it mildly. 3/
www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/08…

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— Gillian Brockell (@gillianbrockell.com) March 19, 2026 at 2:03 PM

A lot the OpMed team appear to have followed Walters out the door, and he hired many for various startups in the Biden years.
And he seems to have taken a hard right turn. Here's a 2024 anti-Kamala Harris op-ed he wrote for Wash Times.
4/ www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/se…

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— Gillian Brockell (@gillianbrockell.com) March 19, 2026 at 2:08 PM

A year later, @schwellenbach.bsky.social and @dfriedman.bsky.social published this investigation on a weird $915 million contract one of Walters's firms got.
NBC got one thing wrong in today's story: Most of what we know about Walters is bc of Nick and Dan. 5/
www.motherjones.com/politics/202…

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— Gillian Brockell (@gillianbrockell.com) March 19, 2026 at 2:15 PM

Then WaPo had its December story about a different contract another Walter's firm got, to purchase six planes for ICE's own deportation fleet. 6/
www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/…

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— Gillian Brockell (@gillianbrockell.com) March 19, 2026 at 2:18 PM

Last month, I tossed my own contribution into the ring, with this story going through all of DHS's recent aircraft purchases (it is not just one fuckjet, folks!) and Walters shell companies' connections to most of them. 7/
gillianbrockell.com/noems-luxury…

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— Gillian Brockell (@gillianbrockell.com) March 19, 2026 at 2:22 PM

And then Dan and Nick with @pogo.org and @motherjones.com followed up with this story, revealing Walters had donated to a Noem-aligned PAC in 2024, and the billion-dollar contract to assist "self-deportations" had resulted in only **917** voluntary departures. 8/
www.motherjones.com/politics/202…

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— Gillian Brockell (@gillianbrockell.com) March 19, 2026 at 2:30 PM

That brings us to today's @nbcnews.com piece, our first look at how the much-hinted-at corruption may have actually gone down, plus linking it to the marketing scandal.
I'm certain there's much MUCH more to come on Walters — but not from me. I cover ICE flights. Follow Nick and Dan!
/end

— Gillian Brockell (@gillianbrockell.com) March 19, 2026 at 2:35 PM

Open Thread: Corey Lewandowski, <em>“Temu Jared”</em>Post + Comments (210)

Open Thread: Common Currency

by Anne Laurie|  March 14, 20264:19 am| 52 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Open Threads

one page rpg:
winston churchill vs one otter
you are winston churchill at 90 years of age, and you have been confronted by a single otter. you have four moves: alcohol, genocide by starvation, speeches, and being mean to guests at dinner. the otter has one move, which is to bite you in the ass

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— Oliver Darkshire (@deathbybadger.bsky.social) March 13, 2026 at 7:14 AM

Back in the 1960s, when I was a stamp collector, it was a given that the least powerful countries had the prettiest, most ‘collectable’ stamps. I got the impression that was also true of currency… which was why America, as the global currency, had monochromatic bills engraved with boring monuments & elderly white men.

If the Republicans succeed in flushing our reputation down the gilded Trump(tm) Toilet, at least we have a range of visually impressive wildlife to decorate our debased currency — moose, buffalo, grizzly bears, wolves. My choice for the most commonly distributed bill would be the coyote, God’s Dog. Or even better, a family of coydogs: Fifty-pound hybrids, trotting down the suburban boulevards, threatening small pets and putting homeowners in fear for their children.

Open Thread: Common CurrencyPost + Comments (52)

The Politics of AI

by Betty Cracker|  March 10, 20262:12 pm| 193 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Open Threads, Politics, All we want is life beyond the thunderdome

I don’t hate AI per se. I’ve used Le Chat occasionally for stuff like planning itineraries, and I know people who use AI on the job in all kinds of useful applications, including research.

My main objection is that a staggeringly high percentage of the people who are competing to build the dominant AI platforms and many of the technology’s most prominent boosters seem to be sociopaths.

That’s bad! And then there’s what’s already happening in schools:

I understand why chatbot cheating happens but every time I read about it I want to gently remind everyone that the point of schoolwork is not for the submission to exist. Teachers are not just greedy for more essays or solved equations. The point is to do the work WITH YOUR OWN BRAIN, FOR LEARNING.

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— Katie Mack (@astrokatie.com) February 24, 2026 at 2:37 PM


Prompt engineering may become a valuable skill in its own right, but it isn’t going to teach people to think for themselves. Also, I hate bullshit framing like this:

How does A.I. stack up against some of the world’s best human writers? Take our quiz.

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— The New York Times (@nytimes.com) March 9, 2026 at 6:00 PM

Fuck their stupid quiz!

It’s no coincidence that tech oligarchs and AI boosters aligned themselves with the political movement that needs to make the truth meaningless and keep people angry, divided and dumb to retain power.

But you know who else finds AI deeply suspect? Lots of voters, across the ideological spectrum. NBC News did a poll, and here’s an article about it that’s interesting if you can ignore the reflexively anti-Dem framing.

A couple of excerpts:

Voters are worried about AI and don’t trust either political party to handle the rapidly evolving technology, according to a new national NBC News survey.

A majority of registered voters, 57%, said they believe the risks of AI outweigh its benefits, compared with 34% who said the opposite. What’s more, a plurality of voters view AI negatively and don’t believe either Democrats or Republicans are doing a good job handling policy related to the rapidly advancing technology.

Just 26% of voters say they have positive feelings about AI, compared with 46% who hold negative views.

Trump and his cronies are all in on AI because they are greedy pricks and also authoritarians. They hope to socialize the risks during the development phase, privatize any profits that emerge and then use AI to fire workers and create a surveillance state.

As noted, that’s bad, but maybe it’s also an opportunity?

Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster with Public Opinion Strategies, which conducted the NBC News poll along with the Democratic polling firm Hart Research Associates, said the findings indicate AI is an issue that’s “up for grabs” by both parties to try to seize a political advantage.

The demographic groups with the most negative views of AI are voters ages 18-34, among whom the net favorability rating for AI is minus 44, and women ages 18-49, who reported a net AI favorability rating of minus 41. The two groups with the most positive views of AI are men over 50, with a plus 2 favorability rating, and upper-class voters, who also have a plus 2 favorability rating.

I don’t know how the politics of AI will develop, but it’s something to keep an eye on. Open thread for this or any other topic.

The Politics of AIPost + Comments (193)

Open Thread: The Massive Price Tag of Trump’s (Latest) War

by Anne Laurie|  March 7, 20264:56 pm| 127 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Open Threads, Republicans in Disarray!, War

Massive war price tag could be a massive problem for Republican leaders
The prospect of a ballooning new spending bill has GOP leaders bracing for a messy internal fight.

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— Jon Cooper (@joncooper-us.bsky.social) March 6, 2026 at 8:34 AM

Buy the ticket, take the ride, Repubs…

Republicans on Capitol Hill are preparing to confront a staggering price tag for the war in the Middle East after closed-door briefings this week detailed the rapid consumption of expensive munitions and the lack of any firm deadline for the end of the military campaign…

Senior Republicans privately expect President Donald Trump’s administration to request tens of billions of dollars for the Middle East conflict and other military needs from Congress in the coming days, with some GOP lawmakers hearing estimates that the Pentagon is spending as much as $2 billion a day on the war.

Three F-15E jets shot down by friendly fire in Kuwait are estimated to cost $100 million alone. But Trump officials in private briefings have declined to give lawmakers any specific numbers, according to six congressional Republicans granted anonymity to describe the internal discussions.

A White House request for supplemental funding could further balloon once it hits Capitol Hill, according to four other people with direct knowledge of the matter. Farm-state Republicans want an additional $15 billion in tariff relief for farmers, while others float adding tens of billions of dollars in wildfire aid to get enough Democratic support to pass the massive bill.

The prospect of a growing new spending measure has GOP leaders bracing for a messy internal fight, with fiscal hawks who have long decried “forever wars” and bloated Pentagon budgets deeply unsettled by some of the cost estimates flying around on Capitol Hill. At the very least, some are planning to demand offsetting spending cuts…

The topic is now looming over next week’s House Republican policy retreat, which kicks off Monday with a speech from Trump at the president’s resort in Doral, Florida. If the administration sends its formal funding request in the coming days, House GOP leaders will be forced to confront the issue head on…

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Asked in an interview if Congress is ready to approve a $50 billion Pentagon funding package, Speaker Mike Johnson replied that he didn’t know the specific number yet but Congress would pass the bill “when it’s appropriate and get it right.”

“We’re waiting on the White House and [the Pentagon] to let us know, but we have an open dialogue about it,” Johnson said…

In the Senate, some GOP appropriators are cautioning that any war funding bill will be a big lift — and warning the administration to get specific, and fast.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), a senior member of the Defense Appropriations subcommittee, said the “administration should not be taking anything for granted.”

“If they come to us at the end of the month and say, ‘This is what we want, and basically, deliver the votes’ … it’s not a winning strategy, in my view,” she said. “You’ve got to start making the case.”

Trump treats the US presidency like just another reality TV show. He's currently soliciting rave reviews for how his planless war is playing with the news media.

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— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha1.bsky.social) March 5, 2026 at 4:25 PM


 

Wars Often Lose Public Support Over Time. Trump Started This One Without Much. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/06/u…

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— Charlie Sykes (@sykescharlie.bsky.social) March 6, 2026 at 3:51 PM

Gift link:

President Trump likes to assert that he has accomplished things no other president has. With the opening of his military assault against Iran, he has achieved another distinction: He is the first president in the era of modern polling to take the United States to war without the support of the public…

Support for his ferocious bombardment of Iran has ranged from 27 percent in a Reuters/Ipsos poll to 41 percent in a CNN survey, far below the level of public backing that Mr. Trump’s predecessors initially enjoyed when they used force overseas. Given that wars tend to grow less popular over time, the initial negative response portends political challenges for Mr. Trump and his fellow Republicans the longer the fighting continues.

The opposition is revealing about this particular moment in American history. A country already tired of decades of combat in the Middle East has shown little appetite for yet another adventure abroad. And the deep polarization of American politics only makes it harder to build support across lines. Even some Americans sympathetic to the goal of toppling the repressive, terrorist-sponsoring government in Tehran find it difficult to embrace Mr. Trump as commander in chief.

Moreover, unlike his predecessors, Mr. Trump has not done much to bring the public along, forgoing the usual tools of his office to explain to Americans what he is doing, why he is doing it and how it will end. Instead, he and his administration have offered contradictory accounts of what drove this decision and what victory would look like…

The consequences are enormous for Mr. Trump’s presidency, for the success of the war and for the upcoming midterm elections, with Republicans already facing ominous signs that they could lose one if not both houses of Congress. The war power votes in the Senate and the House this week, in which Republicans backed Mr. Trump, may be featured in Democratic campaign ads this fall…

 

“If he were trying to increase prices on purpose, would he be doing anything differently?”

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— Dean Haddix (@doctoreon.bsky.social) March 6, 2026 at 4:57 PM

Trump take your paycheck:

AHEAD OF THIS NOVEMBER’S MIDTERM ELECTIONS, the White House has reportedly grown worried about high consumer prices, particularly for fuel. Trump aides are now “looking under every rock for ideas on improving energy prices, especially gasoline prices,” per Politico.

Hmm. Have they perhaps tried not starting a war in the Middle East?

Until quite recently, oil and gasoline prices had been a bright spot in the affordability fight, registering modest price declines since Trump took office. But since we bombed Iran, energy costs have risen sharply. To put things in perspective: Oil prices are up about 20 percent so far just this week…

In other words: If Trump intended to start a war abroad to distract from problems at home, as some have proposed, he has instead made his domestic problems much worse. Trump’s “warflation” has just begun.

The top crude oil expert at S&P Global Energy warned that the military conflict has the potential to become “the largest oil supply disruption in history.” That’s because about a fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, on Iran’s southern coast—or at least, it used to. Iran warned tankers and other commercial vessels not to transit the strait, and at least nine of them have now come under attack in the Gulf region. Shipping traffic through the strait has virtually stopped…

Other energy markets are affected, too. Qatar, which supplies about 20 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas, halted LNG production after a drone attack. Production there will take weeks to restart.

As a result, downstream firms that require LNG to operate are closing shop, too. For example, the Gulf region is responsible for nearly a tenth of the global aluminum supply. Already this week, multiple major aluminum smelters had to initiate shutdowns; one company says it may take up to a year to restart production.

Production of methanol and other chemicals has also been disrupted. Same with fertilizers used to grow the world’s food supply: Roughly 35 percent of global exports of urea (the most common nitrogen fertilizer) and 45 percent of global exports of sulfur (used to produce phosphate fertilizers) traversed the Strait of Hormuz. Fertilizer prices are already spiking, and American farmers are freaking out. Consumers may see “higher prices for bread within six to 10 weeks, eggs within a few months and pork and broiler chicken within six months,” according to an estimate from food-system expert Raj Patel…

And then there are the gazillions of consumer goods that people may not realize use petrochemicals as inputs. Those include clothes, iPhones, candy, dentures, dishwashing liquid, footballs, shampoo, toothpaste, lipstick, plastic toys, trash bags, umbrellas, tires—you name it. These products won’t immediately get more expensive, but we should anticipate that the chemicals that go into these products will start to get costlier if the war continues for a month or two, per Seth Goldstein, a senior equity analyst who covers chemicals for Morningstar.

Higher fuel prices also feed into higher prices for virtually all other goods—and many services, too—because most modes of transportation use fossil fuels…

And, of course, the inevitable coda:

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— thethinblackduke.bsky.social (@thethinblackduke.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 7:48 PM

Open Thread: The Massive Price Tag of Trump’s (Latest) WarPost + Comments (127)

Open Thread: Warner Bros. Paramount’d

by Anne Laurie|  March 3, 20267:14 pm| 49 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Media, Open Threads

Paramount'd

Maybe I’m just a Cynic, but this whole saga reads to me like one of the We are no longer bound by your puny Rules!!! indicators that come just before a major economic crash. Per the WSJ, “Six Months, 9 Offers and $81 Billion. How Hollywood’s Nasty Takeover Was Won” [unpaywalled version]

For six months, the son of one of the world’s richest men kept hearing the same unfamiliar word: No.

Even before he closed a deal to combine his company with a much bigger one, David Ellison was already plotting to do it again. Once his Skydance Media took control of Paramount, he turned his attention to a Hollywood icon, launching an audacious takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery that would give the Ellison family control of a sprawling media empire.

His first offer was swatted away. So were his second and third. By the time Ellison made his sixth offer, Warner Chief Executive Officer David Zaslav stopped responding to his texts. Even when Warner officially accepted a rival offer from Netflix, Ellison refused to take no for an answer.

As the battle dragged on, Ellison sweetened his offers, ratcheted up the pressure, took the hostile bid directly to shareholders, threatened a bruising proxy fight, brought in President Trump allies to lobby, and treated the existing term sheet like paper waiting to be shredded.

On the ninth offer, the wealth and influence of the Ellisons finally won…

And once Netflix dropped its own $72 billion deal for Warner’s studios and HBO Max streaming business, the scion of software billionaire Larry Ellison was poised to become one of the most powerful people in a town that once derided him as a nepo-baby.

Ellison, 43 years old, as Paramount chief executive will now control much of our attention: the shows we watch, the news we consume and the screens we stare at all day long, with a family portfolio that will include HBO, CNN, CBS News, the historic Warner Bros. studio lot and crown jewels such as DC Comics and Harry Potter.

As much as Ellison and his team had been telling anyone who would listen that his business would ultimately prevail in buying a company five times its size, the reaction on Friday from Hollywood to Washington to Wall Street was astonishment…

On Friday, Paramount paid a breakup fee of $2.8 billion to Netflix.

 
At NYMag, “Paramount Wins, Everybody Loses”:

Backed by his billionaire dad’s bankroll and the full support of many in Donald Trump’s MAGA movement, Paramount CEO David Ellison won the battle for Warner Bros. on Thursday, successfully quashing a surprise bid by Netflix to take over the storied movie and TV company. Ellison is no doubt celebrating his victory over the streaming powerhouse, ditto Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders who stand to gain from Paramount’s sweetened offer. But for everyone else, this deal feels like a colossal dud, one that will result in a new company burdened with billions more in debt — almost surely leading to thousands of layoffs, fewer movies and TV shows getting made, and the creation of a combined CBS News–CNN operation likely to lean well to the right of where either is now.

In fairness, Netflix closing a deal for Warner Bros. would have had numerous downsides too. Many in the film business, including notable figures such as director James Cameron, were vehemently opposed to the streamer getting its mitts on WB given its business model to date has had no real use for theatrical distribution. And as the Writers Guild told Vulture in December, “The problem is the acquisition and pending consolidation of two media giants, not who the buyer is.” Industry consolidation in this century, including Disney’s purchase of Rupert Murdoch’s Fox entertainment assets or Amazon’s gobbling up MGM, has rarely been good for everyday people. A Netflix “win” wouldn’t have been great news for the average viewer or moviegoer either.

But as one Warner Bros. veteran told me late last year, the Netflix bid felt very much like the “least worst option,” and I think that’s exactly right. For all the downsides the tech giant’s now-dead deal would have had, Paramount’s winning is the worst-case scenario for Hollywood — and America.

show full post on front page

For one thing, workers in the industry, whether employees of Warner Bros. and Paramount or just creatives trying to set up new projects, will lose because Ellison won. Netflix would surely have ended up making some staff cuts, and while it had promised to let Warners keep making movies for theaters, I’m convinced the current Netflix film unit would have cut back on big-budget titles such as The Rip had the deal gone through, if only because Warners would have offered a consistent diet of such spectacles.

But while a Netflix-WB union would have resulted in a bit less money overall being spent on films, Par-WB figures to be a bloodletting. Just as Disney didn’t need 20th Century Fox to keep churning out as many movies once it took control of that studio, Ellison will quickly decide he doesn’t need to double his theatrical slate overnight. Or, as former New York contributor Nolan Hicks mused Thursday, “If anyone actually thinks the Paramount-WB combo is going to field a slate of [about] 40 movies a year, can I also interest you in buying the Brooklyn Bridge, which is also definitely for sale?”

Ellison’s supersize company will carry with it a supersize debt load — roughly $60 billion by some estimates. So in addition to scaling back on movie spending, Paramount-WB will need to slash costs like crazy. And unlike Netflix-WB, there are overlapping departments everywhere: two sets of cable-TV businesses, competing news divisions (CNN and CBS News), rival sports units, multiple marketing teams, competing sales staff, and on and on. Had the Netflix deal gone through, Warners was going to spin off most of its cable holdings, allowing those units to fend for themselves as NBCUniversal’s cast-offs at Versant are now doing. It wouldn’t have been easy, but folks at Warner-owned cable channels would have had a shot at keeping their jobs. The Paramount-WB cable combination will result in thousands of workers losing their jobs as back-office operations get smooshed together…

…[I]t’s hard to see much upside at all in the Paramount deal for Warners should it actually close. We will now have one fewer truly independent major studio making and distributing movies and TV shows. Thousands of workers will lose their jobs, and fewer creative voices will have a platform as the number of projects that get made shrinks still further. At best, less money will be devoted to covering the news and investigating wrongdoing; at worst, that news will be slanted further toward one political point of view. And at a time when the president of the United States and his cronies have embarked on a bid to make the country less democratic and less pluralistic, a media company that has shown a clear willingness to align itself with that mission is about to get dramatically bigger. If there were a worst-case scenario in what might happen to Warner Bros., this is it.

Paramount Skydance will combine Paramount+ and HBO Max into one streaming service, said company CEO David Ellison.
The announcement comes days after Paramount Skydance agreed to buy Warner Bros. Discovery, HBO’s parent company.

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— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost.com) March 2, 2026 at 12:45 PM

… He added that Paramount didn’t want to make changes to the HBO brand. “Our viewpoint is HBO should stay HBO,” Ellison said, noting that his favorite HBO product is “Game of Thrones.” If Justice Department regulators allow the deal to go through, it would place recent HBO Max hits, such as “The Pitt” and “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms,” alongside Paramount offerings including “South Park” and “Yellowstone.”…

Ellison is the son of Oracle co-founder and Trump ally Larry Ellison. His firm, Skydance, bought Paramount over the summer, putting CBS, Paramount Pictures and more under his control. The $8 billion deal was approved by the Trump administration following a lengthy review and several concessions.

The deal to buy Warner Bros., valued at about $110 billion, will almost surely attract regulatory scrutiny from the Justice Department because — without divestments — it places major swaths of the film, television and news industries under one roof: Warner Bros. and Paramount studios, HBO Max and Paramount+, and CBS and CNN would all have the same parent company. Ellison expressed confidence on the call that the deal wouldn’t face hurdles with regulators…

 

the Ellison media empire, even if they do manage to build it out, is an extremely fragile asset for the reactionary cause in several ways
for one, the commitment to the cause of those principals that are younger than 80 is uncertain
for two, there's not much evidence they're good at this

— post malone ergo propter malone (@proptermalone.bsky.social) February 27, 2026 at 4:52 AM

yeah there's imo some real tension between the "they will have to consume what we give them" posture and the absolute explosion in content generation pathways

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— post malone ergo propter malone (@proptermalone.bsky.social) February 27, 2026 at 5:03 AM

this probably is cope: I think it is more likely that Team Ellison eats the $7b breakup fee for nothing when the WB deal is blocked than that the deal is consummated

— post malone ergo propter malone (@proptermalone.bsky.social) February 27, 2026 at 8:12 AM

In all probability a few years from now Ted will either scoop up WB for a significant discount and/or pick apart the useful pieces of the failed Ellison media empire for peanuts.

— foggydrinker.bsky.social (@foggydrinker.bsky.social) February 27, 2026 at 8:17 AM

Yeah, everyone is very much overlooking that Murdoch got rich doing media because, for better or worse, he was good at it.
Bezos/Ellison buying media companies as vanity projects is a very different thing

— Tuffy (@smtuffy.bsky.social) February 27, 2026 at 4:56 AM

PARAMOUNT DOWNGRADED TO JUNK BY FITCH; RATINGS ON NEG. WATCH

— Blurry TV Headlines (@blurrytvheadlines.numbergoup.com) March 2, 2026 at 6:33 PM

Private Equity gonna do to Star Trek, Batman, and HBO what they did to Toys R Us, Sears and RadioShack

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— Zeddy (@zeddary.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 11:54 AM

is it “because we got almost three billion dollars out of folding and faillison is likely to have to spin off properties we want within five years?”

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— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachine.com) March 2, 2026 at 6:33 PM

Just thinking about how, before buying Paramount, Ellison's time at Skydance was so mid-to-bad that Paramount executives had to tell him that his taste in movies is garbage. www.vulture.com/article/larr…

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— James Downie (@jamescdownie.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 8:43 PM

Paramount President Jeff Shell was fired by Comcast in 2023 over sexual harassment allegations. Now he's facing a lawsuit over insider trading related to recent Paramount deals (like their $7.7 billion deal to exclusive MMA broadcast rights).
really a wonderful collection of human beings

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— Karl Bode (@karlbode.com) March 2, 2026 at 1:45 PM

Paramount should enjoy its growing news monopoly while they have it because when Democrats win back power we are going to break up these anti-democratic information conglomerates. All of them.

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— Chris Murphy (@chrismurphyct.bsky.social) February 27, 2026 at 1:01 PM

Open Thread: Warner Bros. Paramount’dPost + Comments (49)

How to Dispel That Musky Smell

by Betty Cracker|  March 2, 202612:51 pm| 193 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Domestic Politics, Excellent Links, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Venality, All we want is life beyond the thunderdome, Assholes

Jason Sattler, aka LOLGOP on Bluesky, published an important essay yesterday on Elon Musk’s social engineering con to reelect Trump in 2024 and how Musk plans to use his ill-gotten gains to fuck with the upcoming elections. I almost never say “read the whole thing,” but seriously, read the whole thing.

It’s titled “America Needs to Prepare for Elon Musk Like He’s a State-Sponsored Cyber Attack.” That’s a good way to put it because in terms of resources and connections, Musk is the equivalent of a state actor. Sattler starts by reviewing how Musk pulled off the con in 2024:

Let me walk you through what it actually did, because the details would repulse a society with anything like a healthy gag reflex, and because they reveal the one thing Musk actually believes in: his power to loot America dry, a position that puts him in exact sync with the man he spent more than any individual in the history of the planet to elect.

Muslim voters in Michigan saw pro-Israel ads praising Kamala Harris for marrying a Jewish man and backing Israel’s military. Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, targeted by the same operation, saw ads claiming Harris wanted to cut off U.S. arms to Israel. Young liberals got headlines about how Harris had sold out the progressive movement. Working-class white men in the Midwest were warned she’d impose race-based hiring quotas. Black voters in North Carolina were told Democrats were coming for their menthol cigarettes.

Every one of those messages, totally contradictory and engineered around each target’s specific fears and identities, came from the same organization, routed through a dark-money structure designed to hide that fact. 404 Media documented the Snapchat ad buys in granular detail: same PAC, same campaign, opposite messages, sorted by ZIP code, with Musk as the obscured original donor behind a dark-money nonprofit. In information security, this is called spoofing.

As Sattler points out, this kind of appeal works because it’s microtargeted and emotionally charged. Crucially, it’s also anonymous, so the recipients don’t know they’re being played for suckers.

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This isn’t a new tactic. Russia and other state-sponsored actors microtargeted communities in the runup to the 2016 election to help push Trump over the finish line (remember the “super-predators” thing?).

That was arguably the most successful enemy action since bin Laden baited the U.S. into self-ruinous lashing out 15 years earlier. But now the calls are coming from inside the house, microtargeting and mass communication are much easier to accomplish with AI tools (conveniently controlled by right-wing oligarchs), and the thoroughly corrupt president Musk purchased is fully onboard with the project.

Sattler says media literacy campaigns won’t work to counter this kind of threat, and there’s no opposition party messaging solution either because Musk isn’t looking to persuade. Instead, he’s using his vast wealth and the regrettably still-influential media platform he purchased to sow chaos, hatred and division so he and his sleazy pals can steal our democracy and loot our treasury, as they’re doing right now.

You can’t out-podcast someone whose goal isn’t persuasion but degradation of the epistemic commons itself. It still places the entire burden of defense on individual persuasion and completely ignores what Musk is actually trying to do. He isn’t trying to win people over. He’s trying to poison enough of the electorate that any result Republicans don’t like can be plausibly contested. Those are different attacks, and they require different defenses…

When someone receives a message precision-engineered around their specific identity and fears, delivered through a channel that appears organic and independent, their media literacy doesn’t protect them. Not because they’re unintelligent, but because that’s how human cognition works under emotional strain. Musk’s team has studied this and is building for it. Every false-flag ad is a spear-phishing email optimized for exactly the psychological moment when critical thinking fails.

Sattler compares media literacy strategies to the mostly ineffective user training companies do to try to stop workers from clicking spear phishing links. He notes that training doesn’t help because sophisticated scammers embed personal information designed expressly to defeat critical thinking skills.

Recognizing that, cybersecurity experts focus instead on making attacks harder for scammers to execute, taking the burden off the potential victims. Sattler proposes something similar to deal with Musk and other scammers in the political arena:

The political equivalent is mandatory, real-time disclosure of the ultimate funding source behind every digital political ad, not the shell nonprofit or the PAC name, but the actual billionaire. You don’t ask voters to do anything. You just make the spoofing structurally harder to run.

That sounds like an excellent solution, but it won’t work in the short term at the federal level because it would require legislation written and passed by people who aren’t benefitting from Musk’s scam, i.e., Democrats, who are currently out of power.

In the meantime, Sattler points to a couple of grassroots actions that have thwarted Musk. One is the Tesla Takedown protests that dented Musk’s car brand and sent him scurrying away from public-facing DOGE activities with his tail between his legs.

The other example was when Wisconsin beat back Musk’s attempt to buy a state Supreme Court seat in 2025. Judge Susan Crawford whupped the Musk-backed candidate by explicitly running against Musk:

Crawford made Musk the opponent, not Schimel, the actual name on the ballot. She ran against the money, against the interference, against the sheer gall of the richest man on earth treating a state judiciary like a personal acquisition. Her campaign wasn’t a fact-check operation or a media literacy seminar. It was a sustained, morally direct counter-attack that named the con loudly and repeatedly until the name stuck.

Musk is already gearing up for another round. He donated tens of millions already to support Republicans in the midterms and has strategized directly with Trump, Vance and Wiles, according to Sattler. So we can definitely expect more fuckery.

But Trump is now deeply unpopular, as is Musk. Sattler suggests that Democrats who are running against Musk-backed Republican opponents (which is all of them, basically) hang Musk around their necks like Crawford did. Sounds like a good plan to me.

Open thread.

How to Dispel That Musky SmellPost + Comments (193)

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