Obama makes a quick stop in Miami Springs to offer a message to Dems here: “If you bring Florida home, this things over…
I won’t have to wait for the results. I want to go to sleep knowing we’re going to have a president fighting on our behalf.” pic.twitter.com/HHVY2Naiz7
— Sabrina Rodríguez (@sabrod123) October 24, 2020
"When 60 Minutes and Lesley Stahl are too tough for you, you ain't all that tough" — Obama pic.twitter.com/KcFVaoyQ7B
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 24, 2020
Obama: Florida man wouldn’t even do this stuff. Why are we accepting it from the President of the United States? pic.twitter.com/VMmClzBm3k
— Acyn Torabi (@Acyn) October 24, 2020
Obama this afternoon spoke to campaign volunteers in Miami.
“You were my first!” a female volunteer told him.
“I’m very grateful,” Obama said. “Though you should probably say it in a different way.”
Via pooler @PatriciaMazzei
— Matt Viser (@mviser) October 24, 2020
I saw this in the thread below where Aleta posted it — it put a big smile on my face. The passion!
That Matt Viser tweet: Obama is a good ally. I should be so decent, as to be the sort of ally that Obama is.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
HONK! HONK! HONK! HONK!
Florida would indeed be game over. Florida, North Carolina, Arizona. Let’s go, Team Blue!
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch:
The sound of the 2020 election campaign will be the sound of angry drivers.
I voted today. I went to the Madison City Hall, and there were only three people in front of me. As I was waiting, I chatted with the poll worker who was managing that part of the line. She told me that turn out at that location (there are 12 others in Madison) was huge. Apparently, the line had died down just a few minutes before I arrived, so I had a really short wait. Every other election i have voted in in Madison was done on paper ballots that were fed into a scantron machine. This time, due to Covid, we voted on a machine that then printed out a paper ballot. I got to verify my choices three times, and then I got to see my choices printed out on the actual ballot. I then went to another station, put it in an envelope, sealed it, and signed it. After that, poll worker countersigned the enveloped, and I put it an old fashioned lock box. I thanked all the poll workers and got my sticker. Then I went and bought ice cream.
West of the Cascades
@HumboldtBlue: if you underreport the number of Covid dead, there’s a chance Thiel can spirit the bodies away and drain their blood before anyone notices.
Gin & Tonic
@Omnes Omnibus: What flavor?
@Omnes Omnibus: Omnes, do you have a pointer to a description of the system ? It sounds …. comprehensive (in a good way). I’d like to compare it to what Los Angeles is doing this cycle.
Not germane to the thread, but is there a more special person than the committed Jo Jorgensen voter who is also on twitter?
@Gin & Tonic: Honestly, it was frozen custard because Wisconsin. It was called Caramel Trio.
I guess Democratic bigwigs not entirely giving up on Florida. I am officially cheered up now.
You would think they would tell him to talk about something else at these rallies. I mean, it doesn’t MATTER what he talks about- they’ll cheer for anything. He really seems determined to keep the focus on his greatest failure. No one else even has to bring it up- he spends so much time denying it’s happening it’s all he talks about.
Gin & Tonic
@Omnes Omnibus: So you lied. I’ll make a note of that.
@Chetan Murthy: I do not. Like I said, this is the first time I have seen this set up. If I see descriptions online, I’ll put up a link.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
You think the usual neurotic suspects in our camp are panicking
They only release the polling that makes them look good (the outliers) and those are still bad. The ones they hide (the non-outliers) are horrific.
@HumboldtBlue: Oh yeah, Peter Thiel, the MoneyBinned imbecile who thinks Bug Jack Barron is an instruction manual…
@Omnes Omnibus: I’ve been seeing, “Visit the Dells” commercials over the past 2-3 weeks.
The Lincoln Project’s lawyer’s letter to Ivanka & Jared’s lawyer is a thing of beauty:
@Gin & Tonic: I didn’t think cretins like you would understand, so I simplified. Frozen Custard.
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: Thanks, reading link now. Great way for a statistician to relax on a Saturday night. Woohoo! Someone run tell BillinGlendaleCA!
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch:
I can’t tell you how much I hope that is true. I think it is but…well, 2016. It does feel different this time, I will say.
@Delk: So do what you’re fucking told. Visit the damned Dells. Actually, the Dells themselves are pretty cool. The tourist trap that has grown up around them is less so.
I highly recommend the documentary Pizza: A Love Story, especially if you’ve ever lived in New Haven. It brought back many happy memories. It’s on Amazon Prime.
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: Yes, this is a good article, and it echoes what other pollsters and survey statisticians are saying about the pattern of GOP leaning pollster outfits’ releases this cycle. Most of the recent polls that show Trump winning in some of the swing states that have had a steady lead are from mediocre or worse GOP outfits that swoop in close to elections. Fact that they are further from average better quality polls than usual is a sign that something is up that the GOP insiders don’t want to talk about.
James E Powell
In California, Uber, Lyft, and others are running a flat out lying campaign on Issue 22 and they’re going to win. I hate this shit.
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch:
which is why this whole weird “shy trumpov voters” thing is just stupid: if those folks were out there, the trumpov campaign would have picked them up and found a way to show STRENGTH!!!!1!
@Omnes Omnibus: had a friend with a place in Portage. On the river not the correctional institution. Although I did know Dahmer.
Can someone in medicine just conclusively clear this up? Because “co-morbidities” aren’t new. I mean if you have diabetes but die of pneumonia no one says “well, but he DID have diabetes so… who knows?”
Why is this just now unknowable?
Either don’t apply it to covid or apply it to everything.
Oh my. ???
@James E Powell: Oh no. Really? Ugh. That’s …. angering. Sigh.
@zhena gogolia: That was a fun read!
James E Powell
I was reading someone’s breakdown of a Civiqs tracking poll in Pennsylvania. White, non college voters 59-39 for Trump. They are still angry, ignorant, hateful bigots and they will never desert the president who says what they are thinking.
First day of in-person early voting in Los Angeles. My wife cast her first vote as an American citizen – she was very excited. Moderately long lines, but nothing dramatic.
Now we just pace back and forth in the waiting room, waiting to break out the cigars if/when democracy is (re)born.
@James E Powell:
We had been blissfully ad free until recently. But watching the World Series, we’re inundated. I’d forgotten what network television was like.
Drove down to Santa Cruz today, and then up the coast. Idiot Trump banner goblins on the overpass at the Lexington Reservoir.
Fortunately, our favorite pumpkin patch and strawberry farm survived the fires.
OT maybe but what is going on with this #FakeMelania stuff? Did they try to pass off a double or something?
Also, I see that Pence’s Chief of Staff now has Covid-19 and will have to isolate…
These super-spreader Republicans, I tell ya…
I was driving through rural Wisconsin this afternoon and the trump to biden signs are about 10:1 (did not actually count, just a guess).
And the moron-in-chief will be doing two more superspreader events here in Wisconsin in the next few days.
So glad La Crosse told him no, not here…. Airport would not allow it, and he couldn’t find another venue.
My absentee ballot was signed and sealed in the presence of the Town Hall clerk as soon as I received it. Pleeeease, WI, do not let us down this time!!
@Jeffro: There have been a number of studies indicating that the shamed Trump voter is not nearly as big a factor this year. And, there is solid well tested methodology for sussing that out, so not some sketchy poll ‘bro’ science BS done on the fly.
Simple minds, simple pleasures.
Odd that. My family knew Dahmer’s last victim. Small world.
That was a delicious read =-)
@James E Powell: That would suck if they win. So many voters who apparently do not have critical thinking skills.
@pat: If it makes you feel any better, I didn’t see a single Trump sign on my voting and custard buying excursion today.
@?BillinGlendaleCA: “Simple minds, simple pleasures.”
Glad some kind commenter ran and told you. And very glad you like it.
Yr loyal friend, and obdnt srvnt, etc., etc.,
@jl: right! the Repubs are freaking out over their own internal polls…which, one would think, could have folks saying, “Pssst…this is a poll from the GOP…who are you supporting?”
It’s not like they’re doing super-duper-secret polls and feeling good that there’s a secret 10-15% out there who are going to either ignore pollsters or just somehow show up on election day.
Biden’s up by 8-12% depending on the district, state, and/or day. That is cause for serious encouragement!
James E Powell
They are claiming that Issue 22 provides things to employees when in reality it would exempt them from regulations that apply to every other employer in California.
Their ads basically claim that if Issue 22 passes, there will be no more Uber, Lyft, etc.
So how far out of town did you go?
@Kay: My mom had muscular dystrophy, she also had pneumonia. Her death certificate listed pneumonia as the cause of death with muscular dystrophy as a secondary cause.
@Omnes Omnibus: I noticed that you spent all your words about voting here in this thread, but you got a sticker anyway.
Curious whether you have seen this from Lawfare, and if so, whether you have any thoughts on the matter. Most of these started as individual Lawfare articles on their website.
Personally, I am most interested in chapters 5-8.
@pat: I didn’t. I just wanted to offer a counterpoint.
@Kay: I have been hearing this since April. APRIL.
It’s one of those things where there’s a very small of truth but it’s really obvious bullshit. But Trump voters have lashed themselves to it. because it makes Trump look less awful. Just like some conservative college friends who told me to “keep drinking the kool aid” when we were talking about masks.
@WaterGirl: I noted in the “I Voted” thing that I voted. I haven’t read that Lawfare stuff. I’ll take a look if I get a chance and am not in hide inside Netflix mode.
TS (the original)
In my youth when vaccines were via lining up at school, my reward for not panicking out half the school (which I had been know to do) was icecream.
One of the things that I learned in troubleshooting large, complex systems, and that I’ve heard repeated multiple times on medical procedural shows, is that there’s a difference between chronic, and acute illnesses. Sure, he’s got high BP, cholesterol, and is overweight. But the bleeding out of the hole in his abdomen? Yeah, that’s probably not related, b/c the *hole* is an *acute* symptom. Happened less than 12hours ago.
I think reputable medical professionals apply this sort of reasoning to patients with covid, too. But sure, there are disreputable medical professionals out there.
@Kay: “Can someone in medicine just conclusively clear this up? ”
I’m not a doctor and don’t play one on TV, but I do work in health services research. Most death certificates allow listing of more than one cause of death. Usually you have entries for underlying, immediate, and at least one contributing cause of death. Also spaces for comorbidities. Figuring out this stuff is essential for understanding costs and trends in mortality from all sorts of things, smoking, obesity, chronic infectious diseases.
For example, if we just looked at immediate cause of death and ignored comorbidities, we’d conclude that almost no one died from smoking, alcohol abuse or morbid obesity. Edit: and there is a whole cottage industry devoted to cross checking and validating between different ways of estimating how many people died because of what causal factor. Matching up other methods with death certificate data, for example, is a really exciting field for statisticians like me (ha ha, /snark alert, man it is dull stuff, takes a certain kind of statistician to get into that area).
I forget the all the variations on the nonsense regarding ‘died with’ versus ‘died from’, and fussing over comorbidities the covid-19 truthers have put out.
I can’t find a convenient open access guide to how to analyze this stuff. But below is a link to the handy dandy CDC physicians’ handbook on how to fill out a death certificate:
Physicians’ handbook on medical certification of death
CDC, 2003 revision
@Omnes Omnibus: I did see that earlier and dutifully handed out a sticker.
If you take a look at theLawfare stuff, I’ll be interested to hear your thoughts.
@WaterGirl: What does a virtual sticker entail?
@Omnes Omnibus: I’m originally from Wisconsin (now in VA). My friend was Dahmer’s intake officer at the Milwaukee County Jail. She said he was the “most polite guy” there.
TS (the original)
@James E Powell:
Always seemed to me we elect governments so they can “get stuff done”. Going back to ask people about any government action/policy is not something that should happen – other than for constitutional changes. Also seems like a very American thing. I don’t see it happening in other countries.
Sure fills up the ballot papers & how many people don’t have a clue what they are voting for?
@Jean: Christ, is Dahmer Wisconsin’s Kevin Bacon?
@Omnes Omnibus: I’m not sure how to answer that.
@Omnes Omnibus: Make you wonder. LOL
@Omnes Omnibus: well he was raised near me!
ETA in Ohio.
@Kay: “Either don’t apply it to covid or apply it to everything.”
And, for respectable statistics, put out by the CDC, different stats are put out, from immediate cause of death to estimates of the ultimate cause of death for everything. From hepatitis C, to smoking, accidents (old person’s hip fracture leads to lying down leads to pneumonia), abusive drinking, drug use, history of stroke and heart attack, cancer, etc. CDC and state agencies put out multiple stats precisely because people want to have a lot of data to match up different stats and data bases and keep different estimates as consistent as possible.
What I’ve seen of the covid-19 death truther stuff is just infantile nonsense that violates common sense. I remember one that focused on covid deaths with no comorbidities versus many more with comorbidities. Well, duh, that is exactly what you’d expect of a set of common pre-existing comorbidities are important risk factors for serious illness. The covid-19 truthers implicitly admit this when they fuss about letting the disease rip among younger folk and finding some mystery method of protecting vulnerable over an undefined time period.
This is just trump recycling a wingnut myth from a few months ago when someone discovered that the CDC analysis showed that 6% of death certificates listed only Covid, while the other 94% listed additional conditions. This led to the nonsensical claim that Covid deaths were being over reported and that 94% died from other causes. That was widely debunked.
The truth is that whatever the death certificate lists as the cause of death has little to due with hospital reimbursement.
If you are admitted to a hospital with pneumonia and are subsequently diagnosed with Covid the reimbursement is higher because the cost of care is higher in time and resources. It makes no difference if the death certificate says pneumonia, pneumonia secondary to Covid, or just Covid.
It is the same if you are HIV positive or have diabetes as those conditions require an extra level of care.
Medical billing is not done from death certificates.
@lgerard: Excellent point. I wish the bills were, since most people who go to the hospital don’t die. So, wish we lived in a world where if we have to go to the hospital and don’t die there, no death certificate and no bill to pay.
Maybe someone should suggest that to Trump for his health care reform proposal that will be announced with McConnell any day now.
Edit: I think left out of your comments is that the Trumpsters spread nonsense that hospitals got enough extra money for covid admissions that they had an incentive to inflate the number. And the bogus claim about CDC death certificates was used to support that nonsense.
If someone was diagnosed with Covid there is a test result in their medical history showing that.
“Upcoding” is a crime (see Rick Scott), and no responsible medical facility would do that as a matter of policy, particularly when it would take a pretty large circle of conspiricists to do so.
I think there is a simple explanation as to why 6% of the death certificates only list Covid. At the beginning of the pandemic a substantial number of people died at home. Unlike a hospital or nursing home there was no attending physician or medical history to draw upon. They were DOA to the coroner. With bodies stacking up in refrigerator trucks and the risk of handling these people there was no extensive autopsying being done. It was simply noted that they tested positive and that was given as the cause of death.
Mai Naem mobile
I love Obama. Probably be the best president of my lifetime. The guy is the whole package. Smart, decent, family guy and cool. I like Biden but he’s not Obama and I really like Kamala Harris but I don’t think she has Obama’s political smarts.
@Omnes Omnibus: Can we please not use the words Dahmer and bacon in the same sentence?
@The Lodger: Sorry. My bad.
@lgerard: The certificates of people who died from COVID mostly list COVID as the cause of death. (About 1/3 don’t due to lack of testing) 94% have *additional* comorbidities, mostly because most people have some kind of comorbidity – obesity, high blood pressure, diabetes, heart disease, assorted chronic organ conditions, etc. In many cases the comorbidity was *caused* by COVID – kidney failure, liver malfunction, strokes, heart failure, etc. COVID is essentially always the cause of death – none of the other have changed, but we’ve had about 300,000 excess deaths so far this year.
” About 1/3 don’t due to lack of testing ”
Good point. When hospitals were overwhelmed, and a severe shortage of tests, diagnoses were sometimes made on other clinical criteria, lung imaging, etc.
@Kay: I see multiple replies to your question about comorbidities, but not this link from Scientific American that I bookmarked from one of Anne Laurie’s Covid-19 posts.
I’m not a doctor either, so I appreciated the clarity of the article.
Has Joe won yet? It is the afternoon of January 20, 2021 yet? I’m so ready to have a President again.
@Omnes Omnibus: We passed through the Dells on a cross-country trip, camped overnight and thought we should come back.
So we did. The best part was the boat tour. Some pretty cool geology. We skipped the tourist traps. I’ve never seen so many water parks concentrated in one place.
Mai Naem mobile
I also have not seen one trump sign here in socal. I know the voters exist, I work with one. He does get out of my way if I’m walking the opposite direction.
@Mai Naem mobile: hospitals are losing money and laying off employees because they can’t do the normal amount of non-COVID things. Elective procedures and non-emergency things. People putting off hip replacements, gastric bypasses, plastic surgery, you name it.
@James E Powell:
Well there probably won’t be. If they have to pay an employee by time rather than by some cost made up on the fly by a computer the whole concept will fall apart. And that’s considering that last time I checked Uber still was not profitable. If they have to pay all the drivers as employees they would never be able to have a going business at what they charge. They work in leu of taxies because they can charge less. No equipment charges, you use your own car, pay for your own gas. No SS tax, you have to pay that, 7.8%. Now if you have a taxi license you too could charge closer to Uber pricing, but those don’t seem to be available most places, as the allotted number of licenses are already issued.
It’s still a bad prop but Uber and Lyft exist because they don’t have employees and automobile costs.
@jl: Just FTR, you are aware that the definition of “statistician” is
(Actually I repurposed the definition of “economist,” but I’ve worked with [or been] both, & IMNSHO it’s every bit as applicable. Though we are more decisive. “If every economist in the world were laid end to end, they still wouldn’t reach a conclusion.”
(Also I’ve collected a few decent engineer jokes from the time when I worked as one [for what they paid me they could’ve called me late for dinner & I wouldn’t have complained]. Axe me somtimes. /tmi)
@Omnes Omnibus: Jeffrey Dahmer has his mother over for dinner.
Son, I don’t care for your friends.
That’s OK, Ma – try the potatoes.