Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

They’re not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

The republican caucus is already covering themselves with something, and it’s not glory.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

Republicans do not pay their debts.

Don’t expect peaches from an apple tree.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Prediction: the GOP will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

The GOP couldn’t organize an orgy in a whorehouse with a fist full of 50s.

“And when the Committee says to “report your income,” that could mean anything!

A last alliance of elves and men. also pet photos.

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

A lot of Dems talk about what the media tells them to talk about. Not helpful.

I was promised a recession.

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

You are here: Home / Past Elections / 2020 Elections / Watchful Waiting Open Thread: Pace Yourselves

Watchful Waiting Open Thread: Pace Yourselves

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347Comments

  5. 5.

    guachi

    @MazeDancer: If Biden wins WI and MI he needs to win ME1 or NE2 to get to 270. Otherwise it’s a tie

    I think Biden is losing NE-2 (based on the House results)  and leading ME1 (also based on House results).

    I can’t seem to find Presidential election results  for either district.

  8. 8.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    Look, if you are in agony over the result of the election, just assume Trump is going to win and then if he doesn’t, you are pleasantly surprised. Until then you aren’t living in fear and life is much better.

  11. 11.

    Dagaetch

    If Biden wins but we don’t also take the Senate, I’m scared. I honestly believe Mitch wouldn’t allow him to govern.

  12. 12.

    Jeffro

    Hang in there, Dems in general, Biden & Co specifically!

    There’s an election to be won and just because a shit-ton of our voters cast their votes in advance/by mail doesn’t mean they don’t count.

    And just because lying and abusing people & processes all his life has worked for trumpov before, doesn’t mean he gets to do it again now.  The country can’t take it, and the majority is not with him.

  16. 16.

    HumboldtBlue

    @Gin & Tonic:

    I trapped a 12-pack of Pabst in the wild (seriously, a lack shipments of goods are being felt here and some products are not available) and grabbed one for my buddy.

    @Yarrow:

    I haven’t had ice cream in a while.

  18. 18.

    guachi

    @Dagaetch: I  completely agree that Biden won’t be able to govern. The Supreme Court can get rid of the ACA and there won’t be anything that Democrats can do about it. Nothing.

    At this point, even a 50-50 Senate looks like a real longshot. The Democrats are at +1 seat. Where do they get two more?

  21. 21.

    LeftCoastYankee

    One more time, some states are releasing the early votes first because they were able to count them before today.  Other states (primarily with R legislatures) decided to count the mail-in/early votes after the EC votes were counted.

  22. 22.

    Adam L Silverman

  25. 25.

    Yarrow

    @rikyrah:  No, it’s a store brand ice cream. But it’s their fancy level store brand. They had it for only $1.46/pint. Lots of fancy flavors. I’m currently enjoying Salted Caramel Truffle. YUM.

  26. 26.

    Adam L Silverman

    @guachi: Arizona, Iowa, Maine, Alaska. Warnock’s runoff in GA and don’t forget 76% of Dekalb is out in Metro Atlanta and all of Fulton’s absentees won’t be counted till tomorrow.

  28. 28.

    JWR

    Just woke up after an unsettled nap, turned on my broadcast TV news sources, and they’re giving me the impression that Trump is over-performing, Biden is under-performing, and the R’s are gonna hold the friggin’ Senate?!! Oy!

  29. 29.

    guachi

    @Dagaetch: I don’t see Republicans confirming any Biden Cabinet appointees. There will be no further stimulus. No bills will pass. There will likely be another government shutdown. The ACA will be repealed by the Supreme Court.

    America will be on life support for two years until the 2022 election.

    Democrats will get another stab at the Senate with possible pick ups in IA, WI, PA, OH, NC, and FL.

    If the ACA is repealed by the Supreme Court then Democrats have something to run on and try to get two more seats (if they end at 48 after 2020)

  32. 32.

    Mary G

    I took so long writing this comment that four posts went by before I hit “Post Comment,” and I want it to get at least a little attention, so I’m reposting it again here:

    I am freaking out over something completely different and I will tell you guys about it so I am not freaking out alone.

    My housemates, as you may know, are originally from Guatemala and are in their early thirties. They like America OK, enough for her to get naturalized so she could vote for Obama, but they really want to spend their earning years working all the hours in the day so they can go home to retire.

    They are from a little coastal town on the east side of the country called Livingston, after the actual “Dr. Livingston, I presume,” who tried to start up a democracy there but was foiled by Big Banana, Inc. It was founded by shipwrecked and escaped slaves from the Caribbean and is still impossible to get to by land; everything comes in by boat, so the gang crime problem isn’t as much of a deal as it is in the rest of the country. One website says:

    Livingston is a strange little corner of Guatemala that is completely different to the rest of the country.

    The Spanish influence isn’t very strong, most everybody looks Black, and the religious practices are interesting and colorful, so they are developing a nice little tourist trade. They are also on the mouth of the Rio Dulce, with all kinds of waterfalls and pools to swim in fresh water as well as the ocean. The seafood is amazing, and the fruit of the cashew tree is delicious in addition to the nut.

    Five years ago, B and K bought a small house about a block from the ocean, rented it out and paid it off, so now they are buying a bigger house on four acres of prime trees with its own spring, to turn into a B and B, with a long flat frontage road where they plan to build a cafe, ice cream shop, and boutiques. Plus they want to rent jet skis. It’s halfway paid for.

    Now comes Hurricane Eta, which was a Category 5 offshore, hit Nicaragua as a Category 4, and is predicted to churn up the coast, right over Livingston, then go back out into the Gulf and travel over to bash Florida. Even worse, the tenant they had in the little house lost his parents and job to the ‘Rona, and had to move back to the city. Since it was empty they’ve just borrowed more money, done a lot of upgrades and took off the roof to replace it, which was supposed to be finished last week but isn’t.

    So we are sweating the election and the possible destruction of all their hard earned future. Cell towers are out, so it may be a few days before they can see the damage.

    Waiting, way too many of our fellow Americans, Trump, and climate change all suck.

  36. 36.

    Martin

    Carville is making me feel better. He was the one in 2016 that was first to worry. He saw it coming.

    Not saying he’s smarter than everyone else, but he’s better connected than everyone else.

  38. 38.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Decision Desk HQ@DecisionDeskHQ · 23m
    Decision Desk HQ Projects Biden (D) Has Won ME-01 And Its 1 Electoral Vote Race Called At 11-03 11:36 P

    ETA: Kornacki not quite predicting Biden takes the Omaha EV, but Biden is up by ten. I think– think— these two votes plus AZ make PA matter less, if WI and MI come through. Carville says Jennifer Granholm is confident that MI will come through for Biden. MSNBC said earlier that turn-out in Detroit and Ann Arbor is above ’16 levels.

  46. 46.

    Quinerly

    @HumboldtBlue: just popped another one. James Carville seems drunk. He’s telling me not to panic. He has changed clothes from earlier. He has champagne on ice for us.

  48. 48.

    John S.

    @Martin: I don’t think anyone has ever said this before:

    Carville is making me feel better.

    I don’t even think Mary Matalin has said this before. ?

  49. 49.

    Martin

    Reid thinks we’ve got good shots in AK and MT. I think ME, AZ, and NC are pretty much a lock at this point. That gets us to 50/50 with Kamala breaking all ties. Still have a good shot at one of the GA seats.

  50. 50.

    CaseyL

    I’ve been avoiding Twitter, but ducked in and saw this:

     

    Sullivan allowed the US Postal Service more time to sweep for possible missing ballots in mail processing centers in states including Pennsylvania, Colorado, Michigan and others.

    … after DeJoy refused his order to sweep for ballots and deliver them.

    Has anyone else seen anything about this?

  51. 51.

    Chris Johnson

    @JWR: Lincoln Project says Biden is over-performing on their roadmap of the states they require to get him to win

    Mike Madrid says, if I had to pick four states to be the last to depend on it would be these four states we’re currently waiting on

  53. 53.

    Martin

    @Yarrow: I think Carville has good instincts and doesn’t bullshit on TV. Like I said, in 2016, he was the one on TV saying we’re in trouble before anyone else was saying it.

    He saw turnout problems and wasn’t afraid to say it on TV.

  55. 55.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Adam L Silverman: WI had a live-stream of the signature checking during the Walker recall.  I wasn’t in the part of the agency that worked on that, so I didn’t get to be an internet star.

  58. 58.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Martin: Steve Bullock IIRC won the gov’s race as an incumbent when trump carried the state be 20%, and turn-out in MT is way up, according to my three minute google search earlier today

    ETA: Michael Steele also appears to have had a couple and I’ve never liked him more.

  60. 60.

    Ohio Mom

    Mary G:

    How heartbreaking — will cross fingers toes and eyes that the hurricane spares your housemates’ properties.

  63. 63.

    Benw

    There are lots of powerful people who’ve worked very hard to make Trump seem like a viable candidate today. Hopefully their work unravels with further counting. And discovery of cheating.

    In the case where we manage to win a Biden presidency and take the Senate even in a squeaker (and survive the inevitable Trump sue-fest) we’ve still got what’s needed to start fixing things.

    The disheartening thing is that a nail-biter Biden and Senate victory is back on the table, when I’d really hoped for a crushing victory, like I think many of us had

  65. 65.

    Chris Johnson

    @Martin: I’m certainly interested in how the Senate goes. Looks like we’ve held the House? (didn’t expect that to be at risk, honestly). LP guys are pretty sure Biden is going to take it, and they’re very fixated on battleground states and the mechanics of it all, and very clear on how the votes we want are getting counted late night or even tomorrow

  69. 69.

    Aleta

    @Martin: I was looking at MT, where there’s a senate seat and a gov. as well as the EC, all close.  (Just 48% counted at the time.) But it looked like the two blue cities are more counted than the rural.

  70. 70.

    Kent

    What’s going on in MT.  Can Bullock win it?  He’s ahead right now 52.9 to 47.1

    And WTF is going on in ME?

  72. 72.

    hueyplong

    @zhena gogolia: FWIW, I think we’re good.  PHI will carry the day in PA and Charlie Sykes seems pretty sure Wisconsin will end up fine.

    With AZ in hand, that’s enough regardless of what happens in Mich.

  73. 73.

    dmsilev

    So, the NYT needle thingy is strongly leaning Biden in Georgia, after being Trump for most of the night. Not sure I understand why, but sure, I’ll take it.

  75. 75.

    zhena gogolia

    Since you’re all talking about Senate seats, do you think Biden is going to be president?

  76. 76.

    Chris Johnson

    @Yarrow: They’re political hacks: they’re the same Republicans that have given us such grief. Ruthless political operators… but, even tonight, we are watching them go full John Cole.

    What Terri Schiavo was to John, this election (and how it’s not a blowout) is to them. they’re RATTLED even though they figure we’re going to win. They’re like, hoo boy we are going to have a lot of work to do.

    They’re not wrong.

  77. 77.

    dm

    @Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: Matt Yglesias on Vox’s Weeds podcast yesterday or today said that pollsters get a 5% response rate (makes sense to me, I rarely answer the phone if it’s not a number I know).

    It seems to me that if they’re ever even close to the actual outcome (and they often do pretty well) it’s amazing.

  78. 78.

    guachi

    @Adam L Silverman: I hope you’re right about GA. Ossoff is running about 1.2 points behind Biden. Is there enough that Ossoff can make up the difference?

    I hope so. If Ossoff were 1.2 points ahead of Biden I’d say, yes, Ossoff will win. I saw a tweet that Ernst will win IA, but I don’t see a real call. Collins is running WAY ahead of Trump in ME, but maybe she’ll end up below 50% and the ranked choice will do her in.

    So crazy. It’d be wild if the Dems got 49 and it all came down to Warnock!

  79. 79.

    Quinerly

    @John S.: she has disappeared. Has anyone seen her since they moved to NOLA? My dad always hated her (loved Carville).. My dad called her “lazy lips.”

  80. 80.

    zhena gogolia

    @hueyplong:

    Thank you. I need to try to sleep (full day of work tomorrow), but I’m having that whole-body shivers thing that I had in 2016.

  82. 82.

    Kent

    @zhena gogolia:Since you’re all talking about Senate seats, do you think Biden is going to be president?

    I’m hopeful he wins AZ, MI, WI, and PA which is the white house.  But who the hell knows.

  83. 83.

    Sebastian

    To everyone worrying about the senate:

    You are forgetting that the Presidency will allow us to declassify all intelligence reports. The treason and collusion and naked betrayal of the United States.

    Questions of when did who know what. Every senator who voted against further evidence and witnesses but can be proven to have known Trump was guilty is AUTOMATICALLY an accessory after the fact.

    Biden could (not that he ever would) round them up and have them executed by firing squad and dare anyone to protest.

    These guys will be radioactive in a few months. Get the Presidency, it’s all that counts.

  84. 84.

    Martin

    @Kent: MT had a few polls with Biden trailing by like 4 points. I think Bullock is driving turnout.

    ME is going to take a while because of ranked choice voting. It’s better, but it’s slower.

  85. 85.

    Jerzy Russian

    @dmsilev:

     

    Not sure I understand why

    Like someone once said, “don’t try to understand ’em, just rope, throw, and brand ’em.”

  95. 95.

    guachi

    @Kent: As a Montanan, I’ll say that Bullock won’t win. He’s not running far enough ahead of Biden to make up the difference. He’s running 5 points ahead of Biden and that won’t be nearly enough.

    Bullock was amazing in 2016 winning the governor’s race, though.

  96. 96.

    Chris Johnson

    LP people think Trump is going to go out and claim victory. I’m kinda like, this only just occurred to you? Of course he will. Won’t help.

  98. 98.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Kent: Maine uses ranked choice voting. So they have to do the initial tally, then exclude the candidates who don’t make the threshold, then reallocate those candidates who didn’t make the thresholds second and in some cases third choices. So it takes a while.

  99. 99.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Michael Steele says if O’Rourke had run against Cornyn, TX would look very different tonight. Tim Miller said the same thing a couple weeks ago, after talking to some TX R’s who were very relieved he decided to run for President of twitter in ’19. MJ Hegar didn’t strike me as nearly as charismatic as O’Rourke, but I can’t help wondering how a man with Hegar’s military record would’ve done.

  100. 100.

    zhena gogolia

    @Sebastian:

    As I said to a favorite student the other day, we have to succeed in landing on Omaha Beach. Then we still have to fight our way across France, but first we have to do D-Day.

  101. 101.

    Quinerly

    @HumboldtBlue: you’re talking to a woman who is drinking Milwaukee’s Beast. $6.99 for a 15 pack at the Energy Express. ? Sometimes when I’m feeling frisky I spring for Stag….

  107. 107.

    Three-nineteen

    @Adam L Silverman: I’m fairly certain they mean reported absentee ballot results.  WI started counting absentee ballots at 7AM.  Certain metropolitan areas (Milwaukee, Kenosha, etc) have specific stations separate from voting location to only count absentee ballots.

    ETA:  Or maybe they started processing absentee ballots at 7AM, but haven’t started counting them yet?

  111. 111.

    guachi

    Clinton won MN by 1.5 but the AP has called it for Biden with only 74% reporting. Is this an anomaly or good news for the Midwest?

  112. 112.

    Chris Johnson

    @Aleta: Apparently we don’t need either, though Ohio would be nice. With Ohio, it’s about: did Trump win by a huge margin, or did he barely take it? Is it real or will it fall to Biden with continued counting?

  117. 117.

    NotMax

    It’s starting to look like it will take days for us to know who won this election.

    Starting? Who of anything approaching sound mind ever expected otherwise?

  118. 118.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @zhena gogolia: absolutely fucking not

    we are at least 24 hours away from PA, MI and WI reporting. NV’s still out, and ME has at least one EV in play.

  121. 121.

    Ohio Mom

    Quinerly:
    I was curious too so I did some googling: Marlin and Carville are still married, and judging by the photo, she has lost her looks big-time.

  122. 122.

    Yarrow

    @Chris Johnson:  Yeah, it’s kind of interesting to watch this happen in real time. They had hoped it would be a blowout and they could have their center-right-right-right party back. But no….

  125. 125.

    mdblanche

    I’m not panicking, I still expect Biden to win. But I’m more than just sad that 400+ electoral votes has slipped away. We haven’t had a national repudiation and cleansing of Trumpism. My faith in the parts of the country I don’t belong to culturally has been seriously battered again. And I’m hoping against hope that Trump gives up and slinks away with his tail between his legs because he’s in a good position to turn this into a constitutional crisis. And Biden and a Republican Senate is also a constitutional crisis that if anything will be more explosive than we expect.

  127. 127.

    cain

    @Martin:

    Reid thinks we’ve got good shots in AK and MT. I think ME, AZ, and NC are pretty much a lock at this point. That gets us to 50/50 with Kamala breaking all ties. Still have a good shot at one of the GA seats.

    Yeah, you know there will always be one or two senators on our side that will need to be convinced. We aren’t a lock step group. We had so much drama with a number of our senators.

  129. 129.

    zhena gogolia

    I’m going to have to go back to bed and try to sleep. All that matters to me is that Biden becomes president. We can’t have a blowout. But we have to at least have that.

  130. 130.

    HumboldtBlue

    @Quinerly:

    you’re talking to a woman who is drinking Milwaukee’s Beast

    I’ve never killed the beast like the Eagles wanted but we used to put six packs of 16oz Old Milwaukee cans in the freezer for 20 minutes and I still put six cans in the freezer before I toast the night.

  133. 133.

    Chris Johnson

    Michael Steele is SOOO damn confident it’s hilarious. I’ll buy about half of that and it’s still reassuring.

    “He can’t declare shit! He’s at 130 electoral votes!” (about the prospect of Trump tweeting victory)

  135. 135.

    Comrade Colette

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques:  That … did not help.

    Look, I vividly remember 2016 (as we all do) and how we were telling each other, toward the end, that not only was Hillary going to win but we were going to take the House and Senate too. The latter was always bullshit. I’m trying not to irrationally despair any more now than I irrationally hoped then, but four years’ worth of trauma and data have carved a deep trench in my brain.

  143. 143.

    Quinerly

    @Ohio Mom: she lost her looks before she ever had any. I’ll go back to my dad (very political, would have loved Balloon Juice, always had remarks about Matlin/Carville coupling)… Anyway, he would say “beauty fades, ugly holds it own.”

  144. 144.

    zhena gogolia

    Commenting is weird. I’ll see a number and then it doesn’t correspond to the number of comments.

  145. 145.

    sanjeevs

    Now we know why Norah O Donnell asked Kamala if she was a socialist out of nowhere.

    That was one of the Reps main attack lines on fb and whatsapp

  147. 147.

    mdblanche

    @Yarrow: They’re figuring out how sick the Republican Party is. They’re having trouble figuring out  just how it got so sick. Maybe soon they’ll realized they had a role in laying the groundwork for it.

  149. 149.

    Mel

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques:

    I know that you’re trying to make a (very valid) point about things being out of our hands at this point, and worry not changing the course of things.  I know that you don’t mean anything you said in a hurtful manner. But for a lot of people, the immediate consequences of this election really will be the difference between life or death, or home or homelessness, for us or for someone we love.

    Anybody here with a pre-existing health condition, an already strangled budget, elderly / ill lived ones or children / grandchildren whose futures are at stake is staring at life or death realities that just won’t be made better or less frightening by pretending or assuming anything.

    Please be patient when somebody vents a bit here, even if the venting isn’t going to change the situation.  This might be the only safe place to be able to let go some of the gut-wrenching fear someone is trying to get a grip on tonight.

    That fear, on top of all the stress and grief of the past four years, is just too overwhelming, at least for me, to be fully logical about the state of things, or to be able to compartmentalize at such a pivotal moment.

  150. 150.

    John S.

    Well it’s official. They called Florida America’s Pen1s for Trump.

    But he’s still a long way off from winning.

  151. 151.

    sdhays

    According to TPM, Biden is going to speak soon. I’m on joebiden.com and they have a live stream up, but nothing is playing there yet.

  153. 153.

    zeecube

    On the positive side, almost all local races in my neck of the woods going my chosen candidates’ way.

  154. 154.

    Chris Johnson

    @guachi: Trump is at 130 electoral votes and needs 270. WUT?

    Michael Steele: “He ain’t making THAT shit up! Where is he going to get the votes?” regarding Arizona, which Trump needed to WIN.

  155. 155.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Cacti: Ralston said long lines at polling places in LV, and they’re holding off on announcing numbers till all those people voted

  157. 157.

    gwangung

    @Mary G: Not quite the Bradley Effect…but I bet a lot of people in the US have pegged pollers as part of the Liberal Elite. And they like nothing better than to fuck with Liberal Elites.

  158. 158.

    Sab

    It looks like Jennifer Brunner won Ohio Supreme Court. Yay!

    John O’Donnell lost against French. It turns out he is the local judge who acquitted the Cleveland cop who was part of the 52 cop car chase that ended up with them shooting two unarmed people in their car after a traffic stop turned into a cross town chase. Ugly ugly story.

    Why did I not know that? Apparently black voters remembered.

  159. 159.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Adam L Silverman: I don’t know.  With the reporting I am not sure what they are considering absentees that need to be processed.  The in-person absentees should only need to be be counted since all the vetting was done at the early voting location. The mail-in and drop-offs will need to be verified before they are counted.  So, to sum up, fuck if I know where they are with what.

  160. 160.

    Subsole

    @Ridnik Chrome: Lincoln Project.

    Ratfuck slimebag GOP operators who got run out of their lab by the monster they helped build and are currently firing in a direction useful for our purposes. Country-club GOP in exile.

    As mentioned upthread, they may not be going home as soon as they thought.

  161. 161.

    mrmoshpotato

    @sanjeevs:

    Now we know why Norah O Donnell asked Kamala if she was a socialist out of nowhere.

    That was one of the Reps main attack lines on fb and whatsapp

    Assholes.  Let them shove the socialist interstate highway system up their asses.

  163. 163.

    Chris Johnson

    Steele thinks Biden could pull North Carolina out unexpectedly. I’ll be impressed if he turns out to be right about that, though he doesn’t need it to win.

  165. 165.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Mel: I know that you don’t mean anything you said in a hurtful manner. But for a lot of people, the immediate consequences of this election really will be the difference between life or death, or home or homelessness, for us or for someone we love.

    Since everyone and everyone said Trump has a serious chance winning this. don’t you think before tonight was time to deal with those issue instead of gambling on an election?

  166. 166.

    SenyorDave

    To me one takeaway is that for the near future polls will always overestimate Democratic support.  Almost every poll had Biden leading in Florida, he will lose by at least three points.  Most polls had a very tight racein Iowa, Trump will win by 10 points there.

  169. 169.

    Chris Johnson

    @Subsole: They’re never going back. They’re going full John Cole. They thought they had a blowout, because they thought republicans would follow them and not Trump.

    No rage like that of the apostate.

    Biden is saying ‘we’re going to win, we’re going to count every vote’

  171. 171.

    hueyplong

    I missed it if someone has posted it, but the Star Tribune has called Minnesota for Biden (and he mentioned that fact in his remarks).

  174. 174.

    Kristine

    I baked banana muffins with pecans and dried figs. Really good combo.

    It hurts that this is in any way close. But the experts all said this was going to take a while to sort out and yes it will.

    Biden just finished speaking. Optimistic and encouraging.

  182. 182.

    sdhays

    Biden’s remarks were short and sweet:

    • Feel really good about Arizona
    • Still in the game in Georgia, even though they weren’t expecting it
    • Feeling really good about Wisconsin and Michigan
    • Going to win Pennsylvania when all the votes are counted; people on the ground there very encouraged by what they’re seeing in terms of turnout

    ETA: Thanks for everyone turning out, congrats to winners in Delaware, etc.

  185. 185.

    mrmoshpotato

    @sdhays: Biden’s YouTube channel will also carry it.  (Probably the embed on his site.)

    Wanting some KFC while waiting.  Damn you Aussie man reviewing this sammich.

  186. 186.

    Chris Johnson

    @MazeDancer: HAHA HOLY SHIT

    So, with AZ for Biden, Trump is at 130 electoral votes and needs even more than he thought since he didn’t get the expected AZ

  189. 189.

    PsiFighter37

    Short statement, felt about right. But I hope he pushes back hard if Trump decides to come out and say “I won”. Taking Arizona helps a lot, because it removes a ratfucking operation centered around one state.

    Georgia will be interesting, as will NE-02 and ME-02.

  192. 192.

    John S.

    @SenyorDave: I’m not sure that holds true for every future election. My wife thinks it’s the Trump effect.

    Basically, there are enough people who lie to a pollster because they are embarrassed to support a scumbag like Trump publicly, but then pull the lever for him in private.

  196. 196.

    sdhays

    @mrmoshpotato: For awhile, my year-and-a-half year old pronounced “penis” as “pizza”. It was adorable. And hilarious.

    But he knows what pizza is now and will not mix it up anymore.

  197. 197.

    John S.

    @mrmoshpotato: Well then, America’s Penis it shall be!

    And fuck Florida. My parents could have moved us anywhere when I was a kid, but oh no, they had to pick here.

  198. 198.

    Raven Onthill

    Question now: is the Trump administration going to be able to stop the count in places like PA and WI?

    Meantime, Washington has seen a Democratic sweep and Oregon has legalized magic mushrooms for theraputic purposes, and decriminalized (but not legalized) all recreational drugs.

  201. 201.

    sdhays

    @John S.: I wonder if that’s what’s going on or if polling is now just bad because too many people, like me, don’t answer unknown numbers anymore.

  202. 202.

    mdblanche

    @PsiFighter37:  But I hope he pushes back hard if Trump decides to come out and say “I won”.

    He will. He just made sure to get out and speak first and make it that much harder for Trump.

  205. 205.

    Subsole

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques:

    Deal with…how??

    Stop being Latino? Or gay? Or black? Or Muslim? Or caring about someone who is?

    Like, seriously. How would you suggest someone deal with that? Because that seems like it could calm a lot of extremely frayed nerves, yo.

  207. 207.

    Cacti

    Okay, so based on a combination of AP calling Minnesota for Biden, and Fox (of all people) calling AZ for him, that puts him at 234 EV.

  209. 209.

    Wyatt Salamanca

    @mdblanche:

     I’m hoping against hope that Trump gives up and slinks away with his tail between his legs because he’s in a good position to turn this into a constitutional crisis.

    If the offices of the NY Attorney General or Manhattan District Attorney get their act together, we can look forward to Trump being indicted and convicted for some of the numerous crimes he’s committed.  I’m keeping my fingers crossed that Trump will end up dying in a prison cell.

  210. 210.

    Kent

    Nate Cohen just now:

    Why did the Needle turn blue in Georgia? We got enough vote out of the Atlanta area to realize it was going to be really good for Biden. And there’s a ton of vote left there.

  216. 216.

    Mary G

    @MazeDancer: It’s so weird how Fox spews so many lies on air, but works hard to put out relatively good polls and lets the Decision Desk tell the truth.

  217. 217.

    guachi

    Collins in ME running well ahead of Trump (Collins up 7.3 but Biden up 10.1). On the other hand, Collins is only at 50.3% so we may be in for a really, really long night if she drops below 50% and we get to use the ranked choice to decide the election.

  219. 219.

    Blue Galangal

    @Subsole: There seem to be a few commenters determined to make things worse for everyone tonight. “It’s super easy not to get bent out of shape, yo – just don’t be gay or an immigrant or just, y’know ,deal with your stuff BEFORE the election. Sheesh.”

  221. 221.

    John S.

    @sdhays: Anything is possible. But the pollsters need to figure out why they fucking suck so bad, because otherwise they are all out of a job.

  223. 223.

    piratedan

    camped out on the AZ Sec of state website and they are slow as shit, at 65% reporting now, so 1% more have matriculated in over the last 30 minutes.  In their defense, no stories of shit going missing since a Dem took over… also AZ CD6 is still showing a slight lead for Tiperneni, one of sweet 15 hopes..

     

    oops, up to 68% now, Biden by 175k, Kelly 215K

  224. 224.

    Elie

    @zeecube:

     

    Also for us in Whatcom County/Legislative District 42 in WA State.  Running good for keeping our State House and the Governorship

  226. 226.

    Kent

    More AZ votes starting trickle in.   Now up to 78% of vote counted and Biden is holding his lead:  53.1% to 45.6%

  227. 227.

    PsiFighter37

    Joni Ernst won reelection. Ugh. Honestly, this feels like a repeat of 2016 – won some Senate seats (but less than hoped), likely lost some House seats (instead of winning less than expected), but flipping the presidency.

    Not sure how we win the Senate now. Seems like we are riding on Bullock and the runoffs in GA.

  228. 228.

    James E Powell

    @mdblanche:

    But I’m more than just sad that 400+ electoral votes has slipped away.

    It didn’t slip away. What’s clear from the results so far is that a victory like that was never there.

  229. 229.

    Kristine

    @mrmoshpotato: They came out well. Teaspoon of instant espresso to boost the banana flavor. Made sure the bananas were really ripe. Added a few tablespoons of spiced rum because I used whole wheat flour and that soaks up liquid.

    I made a batch a few weeks ago, and gave a friend a couple for her and her husband. She ate one, loved it, and hid the other one to eat later.

  230. 230.

    bjacques

    Thanks, folks, I needed this. It’s 7am here. An hour ago I was disgusted. Thanks to the open thread, I stayed up for Joe’s speech.

     

    Confusion to our enemies!

    Sydney or the Bush!!

  231. 231.

    Kent

    @Elie: Also for us in Whatcom County/Legislative District 42 in WA State.  Running good for keeping our State House and the Governorship

    Down here in Clark County looks like Herrera-Beutler is going to hold onto the WA-3rd.  Damn.  Still to damn many red votes in Longview, Centralia, Chehalis to balance out the blue parts of Vancouver I guess.

    At least the fucking fundies are going down big time on the sex ed ballot measure.

  232. 232.

    Sab

    @NotMax: Beer story. In my mis-spent youth I was at party in law school. Someone spilled a can of Old Milwaukee on the carpet. The hosts’ husky dog took one whiff, recognized it as dog pee and lifted his leg on the spot. The host picked up the husky to rush him outside. The husky continued peeing and sprayed the whole room while being forcibly ejected. Fun times.

  236. 236.

    SoupCatcher

    Balloon Juice has been humming like a well-oiled machine all night.

     

    Nice work, Water Girl, et al.

  237. 237.

    Subsole

    @Yarrow: Sorry man.

    If it helps, you got people that will fucking march in these streets for you before that happens. And they ain’t all just on this blog.

  238. 238.

    JWR

    @NotMax: Heh. Back when I was 16, the first performing cover band I was in was called Penisaurus, which fact I could never mention before today. (I love these new blog rules!)

  239. 239.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @guachi:

    Collins in ME running well ahead of Trump (Collins up 7.3 but Biden up 10.1)

    with 40% of the vote in, per the NYT

    if you’re so absolutely determined to piss on Democrats and boost Republican signals and increase everybody’s anxiety, could you at least include those numbers?

  241. 241.

    Chris Johnson

    I love how they were gonna call Georgia for Trump because they’d counted the votes ‘except for Atlanta’ :D

    Sebastian: yeah, beautiful, isn’t it? They’ve ALL gone full Balloon Juice. They really thought they were gonna get a landslide and now they’re deeply shocked. They are NEVER going back.

  242. 242.

    Redshift

    Biden’s statement reminds me of the victory party the night Jim Webb ran for senate. We were all feeling pretty anxious because the map was looking red. Then they announced that Webb would be speaking shortly, and we all thought, oh, hell, he’s conceding.

    He came out with Mark Warner, and said we’ve looked at where the remaining votes are coming from, and I’m confident you’ll see us take the lead soon.

    And the place goes nuts.

    And then a little while later, the numbers on CNN tick over, and sure enough we take the lead.

    And the place goes nuts again!

    And then a little while later, Webb comes back out and declares victory (or AP/CNN calls it, don’t remember which order.)

    And the place goes nuts again!

    It was nerve-wracking, but we got to have three or four victory celebrations.

  244. 244.

    Omnes Omnibus

    Fuck it.  I am going to eat my berry tart.  It won’t be good if I save it for tomorrow.

  247. 247.

    GoBlueInOak

    @John S.: Because it appears that Trafalgar is only pollster that understands that conservative voters would rather finger their own rear ends with a hot poker than talk honestly to a pollster.  So you have to play mind games with them to get any useful information out of them – which can’t be solved for just be “tweaking your model”.

  249. 249.

    James E Powell

    So, it comes down to getting 2016 Evil Three back. If you look at where the yet to be counted votes are coming from, it really looks like we did.

    Or am I missing something?

    ETA – It never occurred to me that Joe Biden would do worse than Hillary Clinton in places like Ohio and Florida. I think we failed to recognize what she was up against.

  250. 250.

    Cacti

    I’m flat gobsmacked not just that Biden is winning AZ, but that he’s winning it pretty handily.

  251. 251.

    guachi

    @PsiFighter37: There are possibilities but the Democrats need some help. If the Democrats don’t get MT or ME it’s down to GA.

    Though Ossoff doesn’t have to win, he just has to get close enough to keep Perdue below 50% to  force a runoff. The Libertarian is at 2.3%.

    So we might be down to TWO runoffs on January 5th to see who holds the Senate that convenes on the 3rd.

  254. 254.

    Keith P.

    @Chris Johnson: Does Atlanta have enough votes to make up the deficit Biden’s already got?  I have only been glancing at the map, so Georgia has looked out-of-reach to me.

  255. 255.

    eric

    so, here is arnon mishkin of fox (think back to Rove and Ohio) telling the White House that Arizona will not go to the President.

    Twitter tells me that he also said Joe looks good in WI.

    That makes Nevada key (why I asked earlier).  though Georgia and Pennsylvania could moot this too, though I expect legal wranglings there.

    Ralston tweeting good Nevada results

  258. 258.

    Subsole

    @mrmoshpotato: Some places I’ve seen would get absolutely FLOODED with spambot posts for gambling. As well as offers to get bigger pen15 2day, whatever that means.

  265. 265.

    guachi

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: 79% reported according to AP in ME. It isn’t reasonable to think Gideon can overcome her large deficit to Collins without resorting to ranked choice voting to put her over the line. With Collins at 50.4% now it’s not out of the question.

    But don’t call me out for giving election numbers in an election thread.

  267. 267.

    mdblanche

    @James E Powell: Well, yes. What I meant was the hope that this election would flush the Trumpist poison out of our national system. It isn’t going to be that easy now. Our long national crisis will continue even under Biden.

  268. 268.

    GoBlueInOak

    @Cacti: They elected the first openly bisexual Senator in 2018, who was a former member of the Green Party.  As a Pacific Rim resident, I can say the West doesn’t fit into an easy box.

  272. 272.

    Adam L Silverman

  275. 275.

    Chris Johnson

    @Cacti: The neat thing is, our new converts the Lincoln Project apparently targeted Arizona on purpose. Seems like it worked :)

  277. 277.

    piratedan

    @Cacti: not gonna deny that there aren’t a LOT of conservatives out here, but they’re a strange mix of small ranchers, rich douchebags and Mormons who have always sought some sort of political legitimacy.  With Trump being Trump, there’s a fair bit of squidginess involved and over the last 15-20 there’s been a migration of folks from Cali and back east to retire due to the low taxes but brought some of their liberal mindset with them.  Phoenix and Tucson are attractive to young professionals as well, all of that has kind of been a slow grind on the old ways…

    plus, there’s the hispanic factor in play here that is closer to Cali than it is to Texas and Florida…

  279. 279.

    Quinerly

    @Sab: there is a difference between Old Milwaukee and Milwaukee’s Best (a/k/a Beast) … You do realize that? ? The latter is made by Miller. The former is a Pabst product.

  282. 282.

    Geminid

    @Cacti: Politico had a good article a couple days ago about an intensive and extensive Democratic outreach program by Spanish speakers to hundreds of thousands of Spanish speaking citizens. It sounded very effective.

  284. 284.

    eric

    Acosta (I think) on CNN was explaining how angry the Trump folks are at the Arizona call by fox.  It is the election as things stand now with Nebraska and Maine single EVs.  Nevada looks strong and that is 271 with MI and WI (both very likely), but without PA (likely) and GA (more and more likely).  YMMV

  288. 288.

    Chris Johnson

    @Keith P.: I don’t know, but those blue counties were like ten or twenty times the size of the red counties in the tweet I saw here. And if that’s what’s in store, GA becomes a possible Biden win. I don’t know enough about it to say whether it’s likely, but I do know that the mechanism (red mirage, from early in person rural votes showing up first) is a real one, and it could/does apply here.

  290. 290.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @guachi:

    But don’t call me out for giving election numbers in an election thread.

    Give your sources and more complete information and I won’t.

  292. 292.

    Cacti

    @GoBlueInOak:  For most of my years in Arizona, it was pale pink on its very best day, and red as a baboon’s ass most of the time.

    The first hint of it trending purplish was when I left about 6 years ago.

  293. 293.

    cain

    @Quinerly:

    We all knew that was going to happen. It was a pick up that would have been great – but in two years it might look better there.

    ETA: Trump won texas by 6 points. What was the 538 projection for TX?

  294. 294.

    Subsole

    @JWR: Yeah. That was always a longshot. The real test is if we flipped the state lege. I’ve been a bit of a wreck this evening, haven’t looked yet.

  295. 295.

    Chris Johnson

    @Quinerly: Big deal. Texas, Florida were the ‘if Biden wins this, the Republican Party is immediately dead forever end of story kthxbye’. Either of them.

    We’ll get Texas next time. Nobody has TX or FL in their electoral college calculus as a must-have. Except for Trump of course, but that’s a given, and he also had Arizona which he has lost. And the Midwest states that are looking to go to Biden.

    We’ll get Texas next time.

  298. 298.

    Cacti

    @Quinerly: Texas Dems did the best they could.  The fact that it wasn’t called for Trump within minutes of the polls closing was a significant change from every presidential election since about 1980.

  300. 300.

    Geoduck

    @Raven Onthill: Huh? Sweep in Washington? We avoided Culp as governor, but we’re still stuck with a GOP Secretary of State (tho she’s not as bad as some..) and Jaime Herrera Beutler will represent SW WA for the next fifty years.

    Assuming Biden wins, please Jay Inslee, don’t go haring off to a cabinet post and leave us with (yawn bleg) Denny Heck as governor..

  302. 302.

    piratedan

    AZ reporting with 79% in…

    Biden by 160k
    Kelly at 200k
    Tiperneni in AZ CD6 still in the lead

  303. 303.

    Kent

    @Barbara:@Kent: Does this change the senate races at all?

    Presumably.  I’m just copying and pasting the twitter comment thread from the NYT web site which is only tweeting about president in GA.  They aren’t talking about the Senate races.  One is an obvious runoff because it is 3-way.  The Purdue race we need to keep Purdue under 50% to force another runoff.   He was leading.

  305. 305.

    rikyrah

     

    @MazeDancer:

    Fox Polling IS actually legitimate.

    I mean, like for real.

    This reminds me of 2012, Ohio and Karl Rove. He freaked out, and they went to the Polling people, who refused to back his foolishness

  306. 306.

    aliasofwestgate

    Cracking my honey mead open right now.  Mostly just so i can sleep in a bit and finding something to watch to calm myself down. TV is turned off in the meantime. But i’m checking up here regularly. I’ve got hope we’ll get it, just not tonight. Either way it’s a full bottle. I can sleep, get up and have a bit of hair of the dog since i don’t plan on going anywhere at all tomorrow.

  308. 308.

    PsiFighter37

    @eric: It is what it is. Heck, they may just get screwed in Georgia. If those votes come in heavy for Biden, then we only need 1 of the 3 Blue Wall states.

  309. 309.

    guachi

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: The fucking AP is my source.

    Look at AP number in Maine. See Biden’s lead. See Collins’s lead. See how much farther Collins is running ahead of Trump. See % reporting. Realize that’s an amount that’s almost impossible to overcome without resorting to ranked choice voting to put Gideon over the top.

    It’s not rocket surgery here.

  313. 313.

    Quinerly

    @cain: I was extremely hopeful about TX. Perhaps more than all the GA talk. I never made book on Florida, though. I wanted the map redrawn…

    And I want a cookie. ?

  314. 314.

    Chris Johnson

    The Lincoln Project folks, newly radicalized and freaked out by the scale of Trumpism, have gone to bed and so shall I.

    We wanted a massive, in your face blowout, though the mechanics of the situation guarantee that Trump would be able to claim a tie or a victory on election night before all the votes were done being counted.

    We’ve denied him the ability to do that, and we’re going to keep counting until we are done, and he is ALREADY not ahead of Biden, even on just the ‘red mirage’ first-cast rural votes alone. He’s in a bad position NOW and has lost stuff he needed to carry. And we’re going to keep counting.

    Goodnight, Balloon Juice. there will be lots more drama to come, but I think we survived this enough that we’ll be able to fight on. Get some rest. :)

    I’m DAMN sure going to watch the Lincoln folks’ livestream tomorrow night as well. We’re seeing them all turn into John Coles before our eyes. And Michael Steele is a treasure to listen to when he’s mocking Trump’s insanity and prospects. I want to see the votes counted and then listen to these guys verbally curb-stomp the Trumpists some more. They do it so well…

  320. 320.

    Give me strength

    I just want to say thank you for this post. It’s calmed me down like nothing else has at this point. I promised myself I wouldn’t do this. That the results could take a while, I’d just take a quick look and then go to bed. But here I am doomscrolling at 1:00 am… it’s not over yet. I needed a reminder.

  322. 322.

    PsiFighter37

    Also…looks like Selzer was onto something. I am not sure how she does it, but even as it goes against us, I am very impressed by her unique ability to get polling right in her state consistently.

  324. 324.

    mrmoshpotato

    @Geoduck: I doubt a bunch of retirees in AZ liked the “Just fucking die already” plan to get the economy going again in the middle of a global pandemic.

  327. 327.

    Cacti

    @Geoduck: I won’t say I’m tickled pink, due to that color’s association with a much despised political party.  Let’s say I’m tickled light blue.  lol

    Even when Bill Clinton carried AZ in ’96, he squeaked out a 2-point, 46% plurality win over Dole, with Ross Perot taking 8% of the vote.

    Joe looks like he’s going to win with a clear majority.  Sweet!!!

  328. 328.

    Geminid

     

    @Geminid: the Politico article was titled “Inside the Machine to Turn Out Arizona Latinos…And Flip the State Blue.” Its pretty good. It can be accessed by looking up:        Politico Arizona.

  330. 330.

    Yarrow

    @Subsole:  Lol. No they won’t. I learned good and hard in 2016 that no one gives a shit about me, no one will be there if I need help, and if I die no one will care. But thanks anyway.

  333. 333.

    Kent

    @Geoduck:@Cacti: My theory is that the Shiatgibbon shot himself in the foot there pissing on John McCain’s grave.

    Cindy McCain campaigned actively for Biden.  I have no idea how much clout she has in AZ with the old white folk.  But I expect some.

  339. 339.

    GoBlueInOak

    @Cacti: Yeah no – the swing in AZ over last few years has been a bit “Wuuut?!?!?”   Just saying that the Sinema win was telegraphing that something going on.

  340. 340.

    Archon

    Trumps strategy to steal the election by throwing out votes in Pennsylvania blows up without Arizona staying red.

  341. 341.

    greenergood

    @Mary G: your housemates’ situation in Livingston sounds fragile and idyllic but please ask them to ditch the jet-skis: bad for wildlife, esp cetaceans, and they’re gas-guzzlers. Paddle/boards and kayaks are the  way to go. Wish I was rich- Livingston sounds like an amazing place!!

  342. 342.

    Blue Galangal

    @Cacti:

    @mrmoshpotato:

    I mean… people literally drank aquarium cleaner because Trump touted HCQ. He could shoot them in the middle of Fifth Ave and they’d vote for him. It’s a death cult.

  344. 344.

    Keith P.

    I still can’t shake my nervousness.  The news here generally has me optimistic, but then I check TPM, MSN, etc and see a very close vote total.  I’m hoping it’s just a lag in results.

  345. 345.

    Kattails

    @Quinerly: So that would be the difference between, what, horse piss and goat drool?  (Says the girl who has Shed Mountain Ale and Sierra Nevada Torpedo cooling on the porch. )

  346. 346.

    a thousand flouncing lurkers was fidelio

    @Quinerly: As a matter of fact, they still sell Hamm’s, although just who’s brewing is a bit confusing.
    https://www.hamms.com/

    (They gave a search widget on the site so you can see if it’s available in your area.)

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