We’re gonna blast past 200k before we even get to Thanksgiving. If I were God emperor, I would lock everyone down, issue mask mandates, and mount speakers every 100 yards playing this nonstop until people didn’t want to leave the fucking house:
Meanwhile, from the no shit department:
US coronavirus cases will spike after Thanksgiving, further stressing health care systems and prompting new restrictions, an emergency physician said Saturday.
Meanwhile, states continue to report soaring numbers of new cases, hospitalizations and deaths, and several governors have already announced measures to try to gain control before winter.
Dr. James Phillips, chief of disaster medicine at George Washington University Hospital, told CNN’s Erica Hill he is “terrified” about what’s going to happen this holiday season.
“We’re going to see an unprecedented surge of cases following Thanksgiving this year, and if people don’t learn from Thanksgiving, we’re going to see it after Christmas as well,” Phillips said.
I laugh cried at the “if people don’t learn” part. The most American thing in the world is NEVER FUCKING LEARNING ANYTHING EVER.
The worst thing about this is that Trump’s followers are literally a cult. Anything he says or does they mindlessly repeat and replicate. If that motherfucker would just have asked his followers to wear a fucking mask we wouldn’t be in half the mess we are in right now.
NotMax
“Um… interesting taste to this turkey. I can’t quite place it. What did you use for a brine?”
“Hydroxychloroquine and Pine Sol.”
Dorothy A. Winsor
From Political Wire
bbleh
So, um, winter begins in … 5 weeks? And the next 3 weeks of hospitalizations and deaths are already locked in? And they’re gonna “gain control”?
And they’re going to do that when half the country — led by the president — is solidly, even militantly, opposed to even the most basic, least intrusive measures just to reduce the growth rate, much less gain control (whatever exactly that means)?
I’d certainly invest in that, if only I hadn’t already put my entire savings into the Trump Network.
Baud
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
I would avoid that like the plague that even if there were no … plague.
Raoul Paste
The TV public service announcements have been completely inadequate
Baud
@bbleh:
I wish I had invested in mortuaries.
moops
Well, we have 2 weeks to convince everyone that they really shouldn’t celebrate Thanksgiving this year with gatherings. Come up with something else. At least the alarm has been raised 2 weeks ahead of time. People likely haven’t even done their big shopping yet. Plane tickets can be canceled.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Dorothy A. Winsor: christ that is depressing
I’d wager about a third of the country is quietly relieved to not have to socialize with shoe-string relations
(raises hand)
Poptartacus
People are exhausted from the pandemic
and a lot of magical thinking is going on
Aleta
Parades, big sales, holiday shopping, year end parties, mask-free church services, singing, getting drunk on New Year’s, big sales, football … we’re way too busy to learn anything until after the Superbowl.
moops
You just look at Canada. They do Thanksgiving a month earlier. They had their cases double two weeks out from Thanksgiving, and their positive test result rate also doubled, indicating that people not usually tested are entering the community spread dynamic and there are undetected cases climbing out there.
Chetan Murthy
This graph should make every American ashamed. Look at that curve for the EU. France, Italy, Spain, Czechia, Germany, they’re all on that curve. And they’re not (fuck me!) East Asian nations, with their tradition of “blind subservience” (or whatever the fuck the explanation is today for their success). They’re Western European countries to whom (ostensibly) we’re most closely related. Hell, even the UK is no longer on a crazy roller-coaster exponential increase like we are!
But hey, USA! USA! USA! Fuuuuck us.
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1327261516291219457?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1327292010760323072%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.balloon-juice.com%2F2020%2F11%2F14%2Fcovid-19-coronavirus-updates-friday-saturday-nov-13-14%2F
P.S. And Europeans are exhausted from the pandemic. They’re also not IMBECILES, though.
NotMax
@Baud
Idle question.
If you were able to gather any 10 people from throughout all of history to break bread with at Thanksgiving, who might you choose?
Another Scott
Cardi-B is a smart cookie. (That’s from March.) Thanks.
Gov. Northam (a pediatric (IIRC) physician) has announced new measures in Virginia:
Worldometers.info says VA had +1537 new cases and +14 new deaths today (still counting for another hour or so). 445 deaths/million.
It’s good he’s telling people to be more careful and do more, but I fear it’s not enough. Though, honestly, individual states are mopping in a hurricane. There has to be a national policy or we’re going to continue fighting this battle over and over again.
Stay safe, everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
raven
@NotMax: The Grateful Dead.
Butter Emails
@Chetan Murthy:
Umm. Did you bother to look at the most recent part of that curve?
rikyrah
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
And, this is why we can’t have nice things??
Scout211
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Oh my God. That statistic is scary.
My heart broke yesterday when we had to tell our daughter that we couldn’t go to their house for Thanksgiving dinner this year. It hurts, yes, but everyone will now stay healthy, and alive.
It’s one year. What is wrong with these people? Good question. Why can’t they wait until next year? Another good question.
hells littlest angel
@moops: Come up with something else.
How about being quietly thankful if you’re not gasping your life away in an ICU?
J.
My sentiments exactly.
Btw my family thinks “John Cole” is my pen name.
Frankensteinbeck
You know what the fuck is wrong with people. You’ve seen it and talked about it yourself. They are furious at a societal trend that has steadily forced them to treat more and more others with respect, their whole lives long. It gnaws at them. It restricts their actions at every moment, because they know they will face social heckling or even being slapped down by the law. The masks are just a symbol of that. Republicans aren’t complaining about the nuisance. They’re saying ‘fuck you’.
Yarrow
Went out for a walk before it got dark. An elderly neighbor whose wife died a month ago was outside on his small patio with family crowded around him. Looked like eight of them all jammed together. No masks.
Around the corner four young people were getting out of a truck, each carrying a six pack of beer and heading toward what sounded like a party. No masks.
It’s going to get really bad.
rikyrah
@NotMax:
Malcolm
Martin
Harriet
Booker T
W.E.B
Thurgood Marshall
Sojourner Truth
Charles Hamilton Houston
Shirley Chisholm
Barbara Jordan
Sure Lurkalot
My nephew and his family (2 and 6 months) have plans to travel by plane with layovers for Xmas. I was talking to my sister (his mom) while he was in the room…asked if they were still going and then if she was going to quarantine for 14 days upon their return. She said yes…and he chimed in that quarantine could be avoided if they just came with.
My sister is 67 with a blood disorder and her spouse is 72 with health issues of his own. Earlier this year, we lost our eldest sister to cancer.
I keep asking about the trip because I keep hoping I will learn it has been canceled. You must be a special kind of deaf not to hear or read the advisories or the many horrific stories that have been told about family gatherings and subsequent illness and death. And not only put yourselves, your babies and your in laws at risk, and by extension, perfect strangers, but suggesting your parents do so as well.
No, he didn’t vote for Trump. I don’t know where this disregard comes from.
zhena gogolia
Geoduck
@Scout211: You answered your own question. They aren’t willing to break their relatives’ heart. Which they need to do, as you did.
And of course, there’s also the whole “it’s all a hoax” crowd.
dmsilev
My family officially canceled both Thanksgiving and Christmas a couple of weeks ago. Really sucks, but I know it’s the right decision. I’m planning a mini Thanksgiving for myself, but haven’t thought about Christmas yet.
debbie
Some fun reading if you’re in the mood.
Apparently there’s a whole series of goodbyes.
White & Gold Purgatorian
@moops: 2 weeks? The local hospital officials and mayors have been begging people to not get together for the holidays for at least a month. At the presser last week they were pleading. This is in Alabama. A comparatively better educated part of Alabama, and so far hit less hard than some counties, but I suspect the pleading will fall on mostly deaf ears. We are preparing to hunker down for a good while.
moops
@hells littlest angel:
I guess “react now to save people you love” means “I LOVE the COVID”
Miss Bianca
I don’t know what’s wrong with people. I do know that even though Thanksgiving is one of my absolute favorite holidays, and that generally speaking it’s the more the merrier on that day for even a determined introvert like me, that there’s no way in HELL I would get together with any other household this year, for Thanksgiving or for Christmas. Or New Year’s. I mean…fuck. Really? Really, people?
glory b
I’m really sad this evening, my brother’s best friend (they’ve been friends since first grade, went from there through college together) died of COVID 19 complications this morning.
His father had a small soul food catering business, he went to an HBCU, and wound up as national fleet manager for Duke Energy, responsible for $600 million of equipment (he liked to say).
He was a great guy, did motivational stuff with at risk youth, gave to charity, etc.
The ironic thing is that he had some sort of heart condition from youth, so he was super healthy, eating right, excersize etc., more so than anyone else in his circle. He died 2 hours after being admitted to the hospital. He had 2 kids in their mid 20’s.
I had a distant relative die of this scourge near the beginning of the pandemic. She was only 30, came from a small town in South Carolina, graduated from Wellesley, had an MFA from UMass Amherst, won awards for her writing (the AWP Intro Journals Award for fiction), and decided to leave academia to teach at a Brooklyn middle school. She was learning Japanese for a trip there.
She was denied a coronavirus test twice and was turned away from the hospital when she was having trouble breathing, the doctor said she was having a panic attack. The third time she was taken to the hospital, she was admitted, but it was too late.
Her death was reported on at the time, noting the difference black patients receive.
How is it that they are gone and Trump is still here?
Chetan Murthy
@Butter Emails: Right, the EU overshot us. And they were heading to a dark place. So they locked-down, and they got it turned-around, and I think we can expect that their governments and people will do what it takes to get it under control.
What I fully, fully, fully expect, is that we’ll need to wait until we get to some unimaginable daily toll of deaths, before we do what the Europeans did.
Of course, it would have been better if it hadn’t been needed: but the Europeans are sucking it up and doing what needs to be done.
patrick II
Trump isn’t “giving up”. That is passive. Trump is being vindictive. The electorate didn’t love him enough.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@glory b:
Damn. Sorry for your loss
wvng
@dmsilev: I’ve had Thanksgiving with my brother continuously for 40 years, in Honduras, Knoxville, Staunton, and Waynesboro (VA). But not this year. Because we love each other. Why is this so hard?
Jeffro
@Sure Lurkalot: You can almost see the engraving on the tombstone: “The U.S. of A: killed by freedumb”
Dan B
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I mentioned in a previous comment that Slate had an article about a study that showed conservatives trust anecdotes more than experts or scientists. So if their friends and families believe Covid is just the flu they don’t believe Fauci’s opinion is worth considering.
WaterGirl
Am I the only who who finds it disturbing that the fucking chief of something called DISASTER MEDICINE is terrified about what’s coming. Someone like that is built to be calm. We are so screwed.
raven
We have an invite to Turkey Day at the joint where we eat outside with friends every Friday. It’s picnic tables that are spread out so we are considering it. For the last 10 years we’ve been at the beach but we don’t think the old dog needs that anymore so we’re staying put.
White & Gold Purgatorian
@Miss Bianca: We have hosted a New Years Day party every year for a quarter century or so. No way this year. To make up for the loss I’ve ordered some very nice 2021 New Years cards to send to our normal attendees. Considering leaving goodie baskets on their doorsteps if we can come up with a safe way to do that. Yeah, we’re all old now and some are immune compromised or high risk in other ways. And we all want to be around to welcome in 2022.
It sucks, but this is no time to be letting our guard down.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
with subtitles
raven
@White & Gold Purgatorian: I’m lucky because I don’t drink and I’ve always hated that bullshit anyway.
Felanius Kootea
We were invited to a CA Thanksgiving gathering with two other families (we normally spend it in NY with my mom who is in her 80s). Really want to go but said no. My friend got a little offended, saying “We don’t have coronavirus!” I told her my problem is that she can’t vouch for all her other guests (all people I know well, but the fact that you know people well doesn’t mean they can’t spread it).
OT:
@Chetan Murthy: After the discussion a bunch of us had about the Latino vote the other day on BJ, I was talking to my husband and he was shocked at how the Dems missed the whole Florida “MAGAzuelan” phenomenon (Adam Silverman described it well on BJ). He decided to write a Medium article because he thinks the Dems need all the help they can get. It’s right here, for anyone who’s interested.
Gvg
We aren’t having the big family gathering and that decision was made oh about July. My nephew essentially lives with grandparents, remote schooling 6th grade because his mom, my sister is a hospital doctor. We are tentatively planning thanksgiving at parents with separate tables in a large screened in pool area. Florida weather has some advantages. So nephew and grandparents at patio table, with my sister and I each at separate TV trays seated 10 or more feet away.
my university employer makes Covid tests free and as often as once a week for me. I get tested pretty often because of helping parents though I stay as isolated as possible. My sister who has had patients die of Covid has to pay for tests And get them from the health department, and they are getting harder to get as the number rise and priorities get set higher. She paid 100 for a rapid test a month ago so she could safely take her son home for a weeks vacation. That is just wrong.
my university hasn’t had to many Covid case and they are planning spring term to be more in person. I gather that the finances are hurting because enrollment is down. I think that even if the national cases weren’t going up, enrollment is not going to get better with in person classes. Well plans can be changed. They did set the fall semester up with the plan that students finish the term at home. They are supposed to go home at thanksgiving and not come back. The last month Of the term was always Planned to be remote. They also cancelled spring break and started spring semester a week later instead. So my local area will probably be quiet for 6 weeks while the rest of the state increases cases.
Damn.
Dan B
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: We’re with you on not wanting to see relatives. The relatives in Bellingham wondered if we wanted to do T-day, while unmasked. These were the same ones who screamed at us that marriage equality was settled law.*
*See: Scalia speech to the Federalist Society about how gay marriage and equal rights for LGBTQ are genuine threats to religious people. Settled law, sure.
satby
@glory b: I’m so sorry glory b. It’s just terrible, the toll this is taking. Words are inadequate.
WaterGirl
@moops: My parents are gone, and I have two sisters, and their extended families. I have no kids.
Each sister will be at a different gathering of 13+ people, from 5 or more different households, for the holiday. One of them will be staying for multiple days with the folks from 5 different households.
I am the only person in my entire extended family who does not plan to do the normal Thanksgiving stuff that is going to kill people.
I am appalled. I may be looking for someone to adopt me if most of extended family is wiped out.
Martin
The feds really should shut down air travel except for exceptional need, but that’ll never happen.
I learned a long time ago that if you make a big policy ask, like a lockdown, you need to demonstrate that you aren’t wasting it. If you don’t come through because you didn’t plan, or aren’t willing to fight hard enough to get the outcomes, the next ask will be 2x harder, and so on. This is our third ask, and we’ve done pretty much jack shit with all of them. You can’t waste public trust like that.
WaterGirl
@moops: Haven’t we already doubled from just Halloween?
Suzanne
People are fucking ridiculous. We canceled Thanksgiving and Christmas celebrations, but it wasn’t a big letdown…. because everyone else in the family was like, “oh yeah, hell no”.
Spawn the Elder is back in PHX and I miss him a lot. But not enough to put him at risk, nor his grandparents.
Jim Appleton
A big part of what’s wrong with people is a failure of leadership.
The rest is a failure of our free market.
Chetan Murthy
@Martin:
UCB economist Paul Romer has thought about and talked about this too. He believes that we have exhausted public goodwill, and regardless of what Biden does, the public will not “sacrifice” any more. That whatever intervention Biden’s administration comes up with, needs to be *predicated* on the assumption that the population will only minimally change their behaviour. *Minimally*.
I read that, and he was prety convincing. And I inferred that I’m gonna be stuck in my house (and my mom and sister&her bf, too) until the vaccine is widely deployed. Who wants to be the last person to die for a stupid fucking bunch of imbeciles like our people. Fuck us.
Bard the Grim
@glory b: I’m so sorry. It’s never easy, but it’s especially hard now because it didn’t have to be, shouldn’t have been, this way. For so many people.
cain
They really should have reduced the supply of turkeys as well. Turn off the supply – turn off the lights. Don’t sell anything that would encourage it.
cain
@Aleta:
A lot of people are not going to make it to the superbowl – and their family are going to be too busy dealing with them than the superbowl.
wvng
@WaterGirl: I am so sorry. This is just so nuts and people likely will die because of the events your sisters attend. I hope your sisters do not.
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: That actually made me cry.
The Moar You Know
The problem, if I may be so bold, is not the Trumpites at this point. EVERYBODY I know here is SoCal is “just gonna do a little thing for Thanksgiving” WITH A DOZEN OR SO PEOPLE. I expect our hospital systems, nationally, to be completely non-functional by Pearl Harbor day. If you weren’t in a bad area before Thanksgiving, you will be afterwards because they will all be bad.
This is of more than a bit of a concern for me in that I need surgery fairly urgently (I’ll be fine, but it’s not optional and cannot be put off) and my doc is trying to get me in before Thanksgiving because we both know that afterwards is not going to be possible.
We got some good old fashioned non partisan American dumbshittery going on here, folks. I hope it doesn’t kill me.
Martin
@Chetan Murthy: I would argue that you can win the public trust back, but mostly through a reward mechanism. Find the people who are willing to comply, and reward them, and when the others see them being rewarded, they’ll be motivated to get in on it.
Not sure how to do that in this instance.
Suzanne
@Martin: The thing that I think made the requests so bad is that there was no consensus in how long they would be, or what metrics would have to be met to lift them. So some people were understandably unhappy with the thought, “you mean we’re going to have to live like this forever?!”. And they aren’t consistently applied. There are more cases now, so we should lock down again…. but we will not.
And it has resulted in dumbshit rules. For example, in my workplace, which is just a big open area with workstations, the CDC guidance is that we wear masks when we’re away from our workstations, but we don’t have to when we’re at our workstations. This is dumb. It’s all the same air.
Mike in NC
@debbie: Thank you for that. I fear in the coming months I’m going to have to see my primary care guy to be treated to a massive overdose of Schadenfreud.
Dan B
@glory b: Our neighbors are black. To our south they are mom/grandma, daughter + husband and one year old, son with a boy who visits on weekends. They don’t seem to wear masks and the father of the one year old said he’s not afraid of the virus. We’re worried about them. My nightmare is the young dad dies and leaves the one year old without the dad who is really wonderful and loving.
Jeffro
This op-ed left me a bit confused, until I decided to count the straw men.
I’m still counting.
trumpov’s philosophy is an enemies list. that isn’t going away
It’s still better than reading fricking Gary Abernathy, but that’s a pretty low bar to clear.
So many things to parse, repudiate, laugh at, but at the end, there’s this, which is bullshit
Cruz, Scott, the Plague Queen Noem…none of these are trumpov, nor are they smart.
Nor did (SCOREBOARD!) trumpism work ;)
glory b
@satby: Thank you, it’s just such a horrible WASTE
I feel so sorry for mt brother’s friend’s wife right now. She couldn’t be with him when he died, no one can go to her house, give her a hug, get her a cup of teaa, etc. She had to spend the day of her husband’s death alone, waiting for a coronavirus test.
satby
Yep. And some of them are just itching to throw down if anyone says anything to them about not wearing a mask. Though now that’s it’s spreading so fast, I get a grim chuckle out of the effective masks suddenly appearing on some of the formerly maskless people. I keep wanting to ask who in their family got it, because that’s the only way they would start doing the right thing. Too little, too late fuckers.
satby
@glory b: it is. Condolences to you and all their families and friends.
raven
@The Moar You Know: My sister is a widow in Hawthorne with three daughters spread from Orange County to Long Beach. She used to take care of two grandkids but that has been curtailed. She’s done pretty well with just occasional visits and social distancing. I am very worried about her even though her kids stay in constant touch with her. I don’t know how long she can keep this up and what the toll is going to be on her.
Martin
@Felanius Kootea: The challenge with Covid is that you can have it and not know it. Anyone claiming with certainty they don’t have it still doesn’t understand how this works, and why we need to do this.
raven
@Suzanne: And the temperature taking doesn’t do shit.
hitchhiker
@glory b:
I’m sad with you, and I don’t even know these people. They sound lovely and it’s fucking me up to think of all the loss already endured. Somehow, somehow this will end.
we have 2 married daughters, both of whom live a short ferry ride & drive away, one to the SE and the other to the SW.
we’d planned for everyone to meet at our place, but even here in WA, where things have been at least stable for some time, that doesn’t seem safe.
younger daughter is expecting twins in 2 months; spouse is disabled w/many compromised heath issues … so, the current plan is for us to cook for each other.
i’ll be the ferryboat relay, delivering food from our island to and from the daughters’ houses, and then we’ll meet online and be glad everyone is alive while we think about the pair of chubby 6-month-olds we’ll be playing with next summer.
best we can do.
and fuck the entire trump family forever.
Martin
@Frankensteinbeck: This is a common meme on the right.
WaterGirl
@wvng: Thank you. I have 2 sisters. Between them, they have 5 daughters. Those daughters have 7 kids between them. Those 15 people are my entire extended family. All but one niece and her two children will be attending one of these killer events.
It’s stupid and selfish.
White & Gold Purgatorian
@raven: None of us drink as much as we used to, but our party is a meal, usually lunch, on January 1 to “start the new year right.” We share a bottle of bubbly and sometimes open a bottle of wine, but the meal issue focus more than the drinks. We never go out the night before and haven’t stayed up until midnight in 20 years.
Suzanne
@raven: Yep. I take my temperature and record it every day that I work in the office, and it is all just CYA for the company.
We needed to tell people how long it was going to last, or where we needed to be to open up…. and have a clear plan of attack to sustain everyone during that time. TBH, the way Fauci talked about it, with statements like “the virus will tell us”, was not good. I get what he was trying to say, and I am aware that he is not a policy-maker, but people can’t run their lives that way. Especially when we have the dynamic with this virus that people who are at less risk have to curtail their behavior in order to protect others.
raven
@White & Gold Purgatorian: I watch football. . .gasp.
Barbara
@glory b: I am so sorry. I don’t think I will ever be able to think about the US the same way. A high percentage of us are entitled brats.
rikyrah
@glory b:
?????
raven
@Suzanne: ‘people who are at less risk have to curtail their behavior in order to protect others.”
fat chance
WaterGirl
@Martin: Exactly!
PsiFighter37
Yeah, no big gatherings for me either. My stepfather and/or my wife’s parents may come to visit, but they will have to wear masks while in our apartment (which will have windows open, regardless of how cold it is) and if they are eating, it will be in the living room v. dining room, which is 20 feet apart. I feel comfortable with that, because none of us go out and see any meaningful groups of people, outside of me going to an office which is at 30% capacity and has pretty strict mask usage while indoors. Christmas is cancelled for everyone…I really wanted to go somewhere warm and have a change of scenery, but things will be even more fucked then than they are now. I am not expecting things to get back to the baseline ‘new normal’ until February, although I was reminded from above that the Super Bowl is at the start of February, and people will undoubtedly be stupid and congregate for that too.
Honestly, the only reason lockdowns need to persist is because people can’t fucking control themselves. If folks could do what they do in Asia, which is wear a mask whenever you step outside the house, I honestly think things would be able to get back to normal much, much more quickly. But without it, Biden, Harris and their advisory board are going to be left staring down the barrel of no other choice but another 4-6 week lockdown.
Chetan Murthy
@Martin: I wish I could agree with you. Jesus, I’m so sick of staying at home. I -so- want a pool and a weight room. I just can’t exercise enough in this little apartment, and I can just *feel* myself getting weaker.
Maybe they’ll find a way. I sure hope they do.
mrmoshpotato
And most likely the Soviet shitpile mobster conman would have another 4 years of destroying American democracy, because this bastard administration could scream non-stop about how they were successfully managing the pandemic.
Instead, we have close to 250,000 dead Americans, and the Dump crime family are looking at a long overdue beatdown from Lady Justice.
rikyrah
@patrick II:
The one thing that Bob Woodward gave us this election season is that we know the response to COVID-19 has been deliberate malice.
No ignorance about the science.
All choices were deliberate on this Administration’s part.
So, when I say that I hold Dolt45 responsible for 90% of the COVID-19 deaths…..
Yeah, he is responsible.
Mousebumples
We’re planning a much downsized gathering with my family next weekend. Tentative plan is to try to do it all outdoors. If we were going to a Packer game, we’d grill out as a tailgate for a few hours beforehand. And, thankfully, it looks reasonably warm (40s/50s). 5-8 people, depending on if my sister and family join us.
I’ve toyed with trying to lock down entirely and skip everything, but my mom is a teacher in Red, Red District and I’d say at high risk due to her medical history. Hopefully, she doesn’t catch covid (2 for 2 on negative tests so far!), but if something were to happen, I’d want to have this time with her, and them – for both me and my daughter.
Even non covid tragedy could strike, so this is a middle ground we’ve decided we’re okay with. Scaled back from our “spend the weekend!” plans of a few weeks ago, but it’s something. ?
Chetan Murthy
@Suzanne:
I’m sure you saw that tweet about Germany’s Rube Goldberg solution to this problem: a hood+hose over each station, all leading to a fan that empties out an open window. Crikey, we’re the richest country on Earth, and we can’t manage to do these things.
HRA
It is past 2 hours since our youngest daughter send the message out of her and her husband being exposed to COVID. They have an appointment to be tested on Tuesday.
They were at a local bar which is not unusual since her husband belongs to the bar’s club. Still it boggles the mind of why are you going in a crowd. I preach every day on our family site about being smart, safe and healthy. It is not easy when you realize I have 6 children, 10 grown up grandchildren and their spouses, partners, etc. to care about. They are all highly educated as if that makes any difference at all.
I can only hope for the best.
Martin
@raven: It does. But mainly because you can deploy it at a much more massive scale than nasal tests. Mind you, almost nobody in the US does it correctly, but for our in-person classes the instructor has an IR thermometer and is required to test everyone before they enter the classroom. It takes maybe 5 minutes, tops. It’s fast. If your temp is high – you can’t come in – you’re told to go and immediately get tested and quarantine, and from what we can see, that’s being respected.
But we can test 100% of people every hour or so. Even if it only finds 10% of cases, that’s the difference between an R0 > 1 and an R0 < 1 for us.
It’s not designed to catch or prevent every case, nor are masks, nor is distancing. The goal is simply to get R0 < 1. If you are < 1, time will drive you eventually to 0 and you win.
People are thinking of these measures in too discrete terms. ‘But I could have still gotten sick!’ Yeah, no shit. That’s not the goal. The goal is to drive the odds of you getting sick just low enough that the spread goes down. Public health is not personal health. What works as a public health mechanism doesn’t ensure your personal health – you need to do that part yourself.
These public health mechanisms are not designed to keep you from getting sick. They are designed to keep the public, as a whole, from getting more sick.
WaterGirl
@HRA: I’m sorry. 3 days until the test, how many days until the results come back? 2? 5? That’s a lot of days to not know. Hang in there.
Suzanne
@Chetan Murthy: And that shit is a total fire hazard.
Splitting Image
I think a big chunk of it is that a lot of American “Christianity” is performative, not sincere. A “pro-life” Christian is someone who will take a shift in front of a clinic and scream “baby-killer” at the harlots going in and out. When their shifts are over, they will go home and shag each other, which they are okay with as long as they take responsibility for their actions and have the resulting abortions on the quiet. Next week it’s back to the clinic to scream “baby-killer” again.
Since all of their piety is performative, they see wearing a mask as performative as well. It has always been perfectly normal to them to take their masks off figuratively when they get together with the family, so it is not a stretch to take them off literally as well.
rikyrah
@Chetan Murthy:
I miss swimming ?
Caphilldcne
I’m currently in quarantine because I was exposed on Tuesday. I will get tested Monday tho I think I’m fine. I’m beyond pissed that this country has failed in controlling the epidemic.
sanjeevs
@Jeffro: people who vote populist don’t like disciplined politicians. There’s a reason Trump, Bolsonaro, Johnson Duterte etc are the way they are
cain
I probably missed it somewhere – but Happy Diwali – usually Annie Laurie does a post – but looks like not this year :D Anyways, to all who celebrate or like the holiday.
You can say that good indeed defeated evil (for varying degrees of good and evil of course) a mere ten days ago.
My namesake (my first name is nafter Sri Rama) defeated Ravana and came back to his city and they lit the lamps to light his way back. Ravana had like ten heads.
Imagine if you had ten heads and two of them were like Trumpers. You’d be arguing with them all the time and wanting to punch several of them in the face.
Felanius Kootea
@Martin: Exactly. She and her husband have been working from home since March, so I can understand the misplaced confidence a little. We all miss each other, but not enough to risk death on my part.
Martin
And we just rolled out a new tool at work that tracks compliance and contact tracing through the campus wifi system. It’s opt-out, but the primary goal is to identify when people are exceeding the occupancy policies so the campus can intervene.
rikyrah
@HRA:
I couldn’t sleep the nights waiting for my test results.
????
For them.
Inspectrix
We did our outdoor Thanksgiving in September and we are not doing any indoor holiday events with folks outside our household. If the weather cooperates, we are going to do an outdoor, masked gift exchange sometime in December with a few extended family. In New England, the weather may not cooperate and that is the chance we will take. We ordered a tiny turkey to eat on Thanksgiving with just our own household and we will zoom with various relatives throughout the day.
I really think we need stay-at-home orders like we sanely did here back in the spring.
raven
@rikyrah: I’ve gone back to the Y for now. I mask up through the locker and back and but my sweats on right out of the water a shower when I get home.
hitchhiker
@Martin:
that was utterly clear, thanks.
raven
@cain: She did this morning.
Jeffro
@Chetan Murthy:
@rikyrah: for now, our local U has its swimming pools open…you have to reserve lanes 3 days in advance, which means I have to get up at odd times on off days to make reservations just-in-time to keep the workouts going. It’s still worth it. Hiking gets OLD.
If you haven’t already, maybe suggest to your local pools and Ys and what not that they could do the same?
HumboldtBlue
Biden’s incoming Chief of Staff wrote this piece warning the incoming administration what could happen in a pandemic.
In 2016.
jl
Thanks for Cardi B clip in the post. I like her golden harvest Thanksgiving themed outfit. Very traditional and wholesome, IMHO. I appreciate it so much, I’ll watch the video a few more times.
I will add another angle to the recurrent holiday covid outbreak panic, as pushback against overemphasis on shaming and damning population behavior during various festival days. The US public health establishment shares some responsibility, though they may have the excuse of being overwhelmed and starved for resources.
Trigger warning; advanced math and wonky techno-Science drop on your heads coming up. Did you know that scientists and statisticians can actually predict when these mysterious mass festival gatherings of humans will occur in the future? Yes, it’s true! Using the miracle of math, the timing of Thanksgiving was predicted all the way back to before the covid epidemic started. As was Easter, Memorial Day, Fourth of July, Labor Day, Halloween. Modern science is miraculous.
The point being, at least in CA, the drill has been to just publicly worry about upcoming holiday, watch holiday, then warn about upcoming cases, hospitalizations and deaths, then watch the warnings come true. IMHO, a problem with US covid control is lack of influence of experts with experience in practical control programs of deadly emerging infectious disease outbreaks and have had to deal with this kind of problem in the past. But, that is weak criticism, because even if their expertise were tapped, no funds to pay for anything, no federal organizational resources to back up state and local efforts. I’ve decided, in CA at least, every holiday is Groundhog Day.
Edit: I forgot to mention that plans were announced in early reopening plans for ‘innovative’ public/private partnerships to deal with how to modify and coordinate dangerous population behavior. But, like so many plans announced in CA, they just disappeared. I guess a shortage or resources? I don’t know.
But, and sorry for repeating, you go to an epidemic with the population you have, not the population you want. People need to be responsible and behave, but if there is a problem with that, it is the epidemic control authorities job to figure out how to solve that problem, sooner or later.
Chetan Murthy
@Suzanne:
I forgot, you’re an architect! Uh … surely some similar solution could be invented, that wouldn’t be a fire hazard? I mean, HVAC systems pull air out of rooms today, so ….. it seems like something ought to be doable? No?
HRA
@WaterGirl: There are several places here in WNY to get tested. She did not mention where they were going or how long the results will take to tell them. I was working on keeping calm.
raven
@hitchhiker: As clear as the articles I’ve read that say they are not and even that they do more harm than good. I guess we just have to decide for ourselves.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Martin:
But they’ll help prevent an individual from getting sick, right? I literally encounter hundreds of people every day I’m at work. They wear masks and so do I, but there’s usually only a 2 ft distance between us, unless they’re behind the plexiglass barrier. My work area is open and has a high ceiling. I’d like to think I’m relatively protected and safe….
Jeffro
@sanjeevs: true. Long-term project: pointing out that ‘entertaining’ populist politicians don’t deliver jack shit.
sigh
Mike J
Had a race today. Boat next to us told my crew they’ve been going out for breakfast before races and invited us along. I feel ok about being in the middle of the lake with a 10kt wind and a mask on, but sitting in a restaurant for a long leisurely breakfast sounds 1) exactly like what I’d kill to do in the before time and 2) exactly like what I most want to avoid now so I don’t kill my parents or myself.
rikyrah
I desperately want to work from home. But, I have to go back to the office once quarantine is over. All I need is three weeks to get all the work scanned, and get laptops for staff, and I will have plenty of work to do from home for the staff.
Felanius Kootea
@glory b: So sorry to hear about your losses.
Losing a talented 30 year old with so much life that should be ahead of them hits especially hard.
This administration has done an enormous amount of damage and no one in it will ever take responsibility, more’s the pity.
Brachiator
@Raoul Paste:
People don’t universally watch TV anymore. Nor do they subscribe to newspapers. Media is fragmented. It is not that easy to get the message out.
BruceFromOhio
@Dorothy A. Winsor: just got off the phone with my folks. We’ve pulled the plug on this year’s gathering. My folks are in their 80’s and covid would end them both. MrsFromOhio and I got to see them plenty this summer, and now I’m glad we made those trips. MFO is thinking about a non-traditional menu, and one of our YAFromOhio will be with us – the two of them are planning for a day in the kitchen and having fun with it. I favor this.
HRA
@rikyrah: Thank you. She is already saying it is nerve wracking before the tests.
Chetan Murthy
@Jeffro:
There are pools outside of SF, that are open in the local YMCA system. But I did the math: the *cost* of a year more of confinement, physical, psychological, and financial, is vastly dominated by the costs (esp. physical) of getting Covid. I way would I risk going inside somebody else’s building, until community spread has *stopped*. *Stopped*, and in a measurable way.
That sure isn’t the case here in the Bay Area. Or anywhere else in the country, from what I am reading.
WaterGirl
@Martin: I remember when, very early on, someone posted what people thought was the really cute PSA from china. It had animated people and hand washing and mask wearing – I don’t think distancing was a part of things then – and a lot of people thought it was really cute.
I was horrified. Because in that instant I knew they weren’t trying to keep people from getting sick. People were going to be getting sick. They were trying to teach people to protect others. It still makes me feel sick to my stomach to remember that moment.
The other thing that upsets me is that people seem to think that 6′ feet with a mask and outdoors is some sort of guarantee. It’s not. It just improves your chances of not getting COVID. Even then there is often a caveat, like “most of the time”, or “try to keep 6 feet apart” which means people aren’t even sticking to that.
It only takes one instance of unprotected sex to get pregnant, even if you use birth control the rest of the time. I sometimes wonder if there’s something in the water that has made so many people stupid.
opiejeanne
Inslee is shutting down everything in WA come Monday morning. The announcement is set for tomorrow but the food services industries blabbed to The Seattle Times. All restaurants and bars will be closed for the next 4 weeks, and no gatherings with people who don’t already live in your house. It’s about damned time because it’s blowing up in Puget Sound, and King County is getting pretty bad.
The number of new cases has more than doubled in the past 12 days, just after they had already doubled once. Seattle Times says we have 2,233 new cases today, and that’s not the record for the week, but the weekend numbers don’t really show up until Monday or Tuesday.
raven
@WaterGirl: Nothing a guaranteed. Calling people stupid who meet outside and keep their distance is pretty weak.
Jeffro
@raven: we don’t have locker room access at my pool…there’s a chair at the end of each lane, poolside, where one can pile their clothes before jumping into the pool for up to an hour.
I look ridiculous both coming in and heading out. If it gets colder, I’ll be waltzing into the aquatic center in my fleece moccasins instead of flip-flops (among many other fashion violations)
I don’t care; I’ll keep it up as long as it takes.
WaterGirl
@opiejeanne: That is really smart. Why can’t they all do that?
Suzanne
@Chetan Murthy: Yes, something could be done that is safer. The risk in commercial buildings is if there aren’t any dampers. If there’s not, and any smoke or fumes gets in from anywhere, then in no time flat the entire area has smoke and fumes. There are dampers in walls and partitions that are rated in order to protect means of egress from infiltration. That ad hoc stuff is creative, but it defeats the protections that are already designed in.
gene108
The sad reality is we are all on our own. If you want to stay safe, you have to stay home as much as possible. Go shopping as little as possible. And mask up as much as possible.
We are stuck just looking out for ourselves.
A real conservative paradise come true.
Jeffro
@Chetan Murthy: I hear you – good call. Hang in there. We are all here to lean on!
WaterGirl
@raven: That’s what I’m saying. So many people don’t understand that those things are playing the odds, not some grand protection method.
jl
@WaterGirl: I agree. One part of public education, I think, is to explain that the basic minimum guidelines are for public health and outbreak control, not a guarantee of personal safety.
The brutal logic of the minimum safety guidelines is that if individuals consistently follow them, there will still be a substantial excess risk of illness and death, but the frequency and severity of outbreaks will be low enough to handle and prevent a resurgence. What happens to the particular individuals isn’t the main concern.
This probably hasn’t been explained enough. People should understand that if they don’t follow the minimum guidelines as strictly has possible, then they are liable to be ordered home and stay there for a month or six weeks, which is a real Debbie Downer. Depending on one’s risk, a person might want to be more careful.
Edit: it’s the same logic of disease control of other very contagious diseases for which there is no herd immunity, like TB and bacterial meningitis. But prevalence for those have been driven so low, people take their risks, and no danger of resurgence to deadly epidemics of those diseases we had in the past.
BruceFromOhio
@raven:
I do drink and feel the same way. We were in bed at midnight last time around.
Your Grateful Dead response to baud was a good one.
WaterGirl
@raven: That’s not what I said, but whatever.
Suzanne
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Those plexiglas barriers are less than useless.
Only REAL WALLS with separate air supplies and returns in the rooms, with HEPA filters, will work. And the building professions are coming around to six air changes per hour as the best practice.
raven
@WaterGirl: whatever indeed
Brachiator
A radio talk show host noted that a friend said he planned to have 16 guests over for Thanksgiving. The host was horrified. He does a segment devoted to food and restaurants and suggested that people who insist on Thanksgiving dinner consider the following:
Limit the number of people.
Have the dinner outside. Rent tables if necessary and don’t do mixed seating. Have specific groups of family or friends at each table.
Don’t do buffet style service. Have one person responsible for handling the food, and that person ideally should wear a mask and gloves.
Some people do outdoor tents. The tents should only have two walls and provide for good ventilation.
The host also noted that there has been a run on outdoor heaters and fire pits. People should be careful with this stuff, avoid items that are more decorative and don’t really provide heat, and of course, never use these things indoors.
This host also noted that his personal Thanksgiving would be limited to him, his wife, and child. And he normally loves big family get-togethers.
Felanius Kootea
@gene108:
Hmm. When you put it like that, the GOP COVID strategy has a terrible logic to it.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Suzanne:
I also wear eye protection in addition to a medical-grade mask, because the eyes are also a portal of entry to pathogens.
I don’t know, maybe it’s inevitable that I’m going to catch this thing, but I hope not
PsiFighter37
I should also note that I am really pissed off because NYC school closings are coming soon (if not this week, I imagine almost certainly by next), and it likely means that daycare is going to be hanging on by a thread as well. My wife and I cannot – CANNOT – do our jobs and keep watch over a 15 month-old toddler at the same time. She needs attention and developmental education that we simply do not have the time or are all that knowledgeable about. And mentally, I am not sure I can do it for an extended period of time again. 6 months earlier this year drove me batshit insane at times.
jl
@gene108:
” A real conservative paradise come true. ”
There is a lesson there for the country, if it wants to listen. It doesn’t have to be that way. Look at Taiwan. For months, people have been able to go inside and have tea, and a snack, you can eat a restaurant meal inside, go to baseball games, admittedly with restrictions. But a world better than here. No resurgence, only very minor outbreaks, for months
Edit: call me a blind follower willing to surrender my freedom, a chump ready for the yoke of totalitarianism, but wearing a mask in public almost all the time when near people seems a very small price to pay.
PsiFighter37
@jl: Asian culture has long ingrained mask-wearing in it. Also different cultural values. America is about freedumb.
Johnny's mom
This afternoon I streamed the memorial service for a man who died of covid. About a third of the in-person attendees wore masks. People who shared thoughts and stories shared the same microphone. (Having caught strep and a stomach virus from telephones, I do not use other people’s phones. You couldn’t have paid me to handle and speak into that mic.) I’m sick over the idea that this good man, doctor, husband, father, grandfather, brother, uncle and son, who served in Desert Storm, brought a dog back with him, and who did missionary work in Haiti, died of this wretched disease and people who loved him and met to honor him didn’t wear masks. I’m at a loss, not for words (I have plenty of those), but for, IDK, reason?
glory b
@Dan B: I think a lot of people now think they dodged the bullet, but it’s circling back now that the colder weather is here.
jl
@PsiFighter37: That is true, but I don’t think any real excuse. When Biden comes in, the people in charge of epidemic control need to view it as a problem that needs to be solved.
Countries in Europe have the same problem as the US. The ones that have figured out ways to get population compliance, or work around reluctance to wear masks as much as desired, are doing OK on the face of the big resurgence there.
Edit: that is another way epidemic control is like war. That your supply lines suck, and almost impossible to make not suck, is not an adequate excuse, but need to find leaders like Grant and Sherman to solve the problem. The problem needs to be solved, or mass death and catastrophic failure ensues.
Suzanne
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I don’t know. It turned out that face shields were actually worse than nothing.
I just hate, hate, hate doing stupid things that are expensive but make people feel safe but that are not. Plexiglass makes people feel safe and they drop their defenses. On the project that I am overseeing construction right now, they rushed around to put up these glass barriers. Hugely expensive and difficult. Then they opened. The nurses — NURSES —crowded in behind the glass and sat down and took their masks off. Because they felt safe.
Dan B
@opiejeanne: I hadn’t seen that. No takeout either? King county has been bad but it’s the South. Most of the rest is fairly low, thankfully, but not good for Kent and Auburn vicinity. We are in a 2% neighborhood but I’m only going for groceries. The areas with highest diagnoses are majority minority and/or essential workers. I feel sorry for employees at grocery stores who have clueless people in their faces far too often.
The Moar You Know
@Raoul Paste: Interesting observation. I haven’t habitually watched “TV” from a broadcast or cable network since around 2004 or so. I’m an outlier, but I suspect there are a fair number of folks like me out there.
Every now and then I’ll get stuck somewhere where there is a TV on. I swear to God, taking LSD’s got nothing on watching commercials after not having been exposed to them for years. At least LSD is educational.
Scout211
@Dan B:
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/inslee-to-ban-indoor-gatherings-and-dining-plus-issue-more-covid-19-restrictions-for-washington-state-industry-sources-say/
Take-out and outdoor dining okay.
Chetan Murthy
@jl:
Every article discussing South Korea’s response, has talked about how the South Korean people are 100% unwilling to tolerate significant lockdowns, *demand* normal life. So that’s why the government went so hard for contact tracing, mandatory isolation for those testing positive, quarantines for those possibly exposed, etc, etc, etc. *Because* they want to preserve normal life, an d because in a *democracy* the people get their way.
What we have in America isn’t democracy (at least, not in this regard): it’s *anarchy*.
gene108
@NotMax:
My top would not make a lively gathering, too many disparate people from relatives, who died when I was young to the Egyptian pyramid builders to more modern celebrities.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Suzanne:
Wait, what? I cannot keep up. I just ordered a bunch of three-ply paper masks, because now cloth masks don’t cut.
The Moar You Know
@WaterGirl: It’s social media. I’m trying to do a large writeup of why. It’s not going very well, but the phrase “the death of expertise” (not related to the book of the same name, which is an awful conservative screed) has a lot to do with it.
opiejeanne
@WaterGirl: He has tried to convince people to be responsible without these restrictions, but people are idiots. We’ve had mask rules in place for several months, and now most people are compliant that we are seeing, but obviously some people are not.
WaterGirl
@Johnny’s mom: It’s really mind-boggling. I don’t know what to say beyond that. It’s inexplicable.
raven
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: There is NOTHING that someone doesn’t have information that says it doesn’t work.
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: What’s this about cloth masks?
Sebastian
I have become scarily cynical about this. This is the culmination of us (the sane people) doing everything to save the morons from themselves and being hated for it.
Environment, education, labor rights, regulations, the list is endless. For all proposed improvements that would benefit them we’ve been demonized and I just can no longer, I am spent.
A part of me is deeply conflicted with monstrous thoughts that go against everything I believe(d?) to be my values and character. And then there is the other part which says “fuck em, they would cheer you being dragged into a concentration camp”.
I am also starting to believe the reason we have so little literature and other cultural material about the second wave of the Spanish Flu. They too, had their anti-maskers and deniers. Did they at some point just give up in exhaustion and let the disease play out, killing millions of morons but also taking thousands of innocents into an early grave? Is the indescribable guilt of such a decision, which might have been reached without much deliberation but rather a collective subconscious knowing, something you could communicate with nothing more than a knowing look, is this guilt the reason we have no or only few records? Because we decided to let the idiots die and to never speak about it?
The longer this goes on, the more I see stuff like above, the closer I am getting to that decision, having left the point of understanding it behind me a while ago. I am scared what this is turning me into and angry that I even have to make this decision.
It didn’t have to be this way.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@raven: seems that way
it’s exhausting
jl
@Suzanne: That stuff is why the US needed a Manhattan Project level effort to get guidelines and plans straight. Barriers are great for spit shields, for example, protecting worker and customer at a countertop. But very complicated and tricky deal for controlling aerosol spread.
From videos I see from around the country, a lot of well intentioned small business owners wasted a lot of very precious working capital installing plexiglass shields that didn’t do anything or may have made their situation worse.
I don’t blame them, I think they were doing their best with the info they had. They can’t be mechanical and ventilation engineers, disease control and public health experts and run a small business at the same time, and on the fly. They needed best possible info from consensus of experts studying the problem. They never got it.
cain
@raven:
Oh! I thought I had looked at all the posts this morning – but ok! Coolio :)
Dan B
@Suzanne: One thing I noticed is if you need to communicate with people behind the plexiglass you have to speak a lot louder. This makes the masks much less effective. I try to get away from the cash register as fast as possible.
Suzanne
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Last evidence I saw was that face shields by themselves provide no protection against the virus, and are considered worse than going without a mask because the feeling of safety probably makes people feel freer to get close to others. They say you can wear a mask and a face shield, though.
And take a multivitamin.
Suzanne
@jl: Yep.
I have been going into the office for the last six weeks. I am rethinking that.
jl
@Chetan Murthy: Good point. The US has not been democracy for a long while, in the sense of a society that can deliver any decent and normal way of life for the mass of the population. Part of the problem is that the US has a large segment of population that has been brutalized, and educated in learned and resentful helplessness, either economically, or psychologically, or both.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@WaterGirl: MSNBC doc, among others, says single-ply cloth masks are inadequate (you have to sit through an ad and Rand Paul being stupid). Cloth masks should have at least two layers of two different types of material
@Suzanne:
okay, that I had heard, face-shields alone aren’t enough. I see a few people doing mask-and-shield combo
Dan B
@The Moar You Know: Did you see the article in Slate about the conservative / liberal divide on expertise. It was about a fairly large study – 900+ people.
debbie
@PsiFighter37:
My job is talking about starting to return to the office (in four waves) in June. I’m skeptical.
WaterGirl
@HRA: I understand. I am spooked because my next-door neighbor was taken to the hospital in an ambulance b/c of covid (back home now, though). His wife has to try to isolate in the same house, which is hard, and is waiting for her test results.
My best friend’s husband was diagnosed a few days ago and now she has to wait and see about her own tests.
My lawn mower’s wife is a doctor and she got it about 10 days ago, then he got it. When you can’t throw a stone without hitting someone you know, it definitely gets real.
The Thin Black Duke
Winter is here. The numbers are going up. And there will be no rational federal response until January. Wearing a mask ain’t a big deal, but idiots won’t do it until it’s an automatic $300 ticket. Which probably won’t be until next year. People are stupid. Yeah, I said it.
opiejeanne
@moops: I just told my youngest that we are not going to be together for Thanksgiving. It would have been a total of 4, but they don’t live with us so we aren’t comfortable with them coming.
She’s really disappointed and I think a little pissed off, but she and her husband have been very careful since February.
jl
@Dan B: Might be true, but that kind of trade off is necessary. Questions of balance of risks and best compromise is why a Manhattan Project level of effort is needed.
Other countries have been doing far more field trials to figure out best way to do ordinary tasks of daily living. Another area where the US falls short.
Some of them have failed miserably, but in larger sense, show how successful the country’s control efforts have been. There was a big field trial on how to open gyms safely in Norway, with over a thousand participants in several gyms. It was a total failure because there was not enough circulating infection. In the whole trial, they only found one infected person who was on vacation in the countryside, never went to the gym.
But, headlines I saw in US media said the trial showed that gyms were ‘safe'(!?) Had to read several paragraphs down to discover the trial wasn’t worth anything except to show that the control efforts in that area where the trial was held had been very successful
Edit: to put my cards on the table, I do think gyms can be safe, just need to banish intense aerobics and heavy weight lifting to outside or large open areas like big basketball courts. But, that is not how gyms are opening, usually, in the US, and prevalence of disease so high, really nothing can be done to make them safe, like a lot of other things that can happen in more successful countries.
Dan B
@jl: Our local 7-11 put up a clear plastic tarp around the cashier. It’s counter to ceiling and wraps around three sides with a small opening for purchases, and the opening has a flap. It’s the only barrier I’ve seen that looks effective.
jl
@Dan B: Sounds damn cheap too!
Viva BrisVegas
If Asian culture is succeeding with the virus because it is so different to American culture, how about Australia and New Zealand? Apart from Canada, they are probably the countries most culturally congruent with the US and they’ve done quite well so far.
gwangung
@Dan B: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/inslee-to-ban-indoor-gatherings-and-dining-plus-issue-more-covid-19-restrictions-for-washington-state-industry-sources-say/
J R in WV
@NotMax:
Mom and dad, grandma, cousin I love who died last fall of ovarian cancer, neighbor who died young I used to share work with on our farms. Niece of next door neighbor. People I knew and loved and have lost.
Not so interested in historical figures I never knew, they could be assholes…
Ruckus
@Scout211:
The answer comes in 2 parts.
They follow what their leader says is proper and correct. Their leader is a moronic 4 yr old in a 74 yr old broken down body. He wouldn’t know the right thing to do if the right thing walked up and smacked him upside the head. (I believe that process has been tried on him in the past and has proven to be worthless in his case.)
Racism/group hate takes a few twists and turns in it’s travels but one thing it does it cause the holders of the racism to mistakenly think they are better than their out group(s). Add in the above paragraph and that this concept has been part of this (and most countries) past for centuries and the problem becomes obvious. Education needs to be massively improved and built around a 21century world that doesn’t require hate just to get through the day. I’m not holding my breath.
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Well, shit. My masks are two layers of the same cotton fabric.
That was good, though, I’m glad i watched it. Thanks.
jl
@Viva BrisVegas: Population education and information programs in New Zealand seem to have been better than in US by orders of magnitude. First big thing is to earn trust and buy in from population. Then repeat and repeat until population does the minimum public health precautions as subconscious part of daily routine.
Zelma
I am trying to decide whether to drive to VA from NJ to visit son and daughter-in-law. They are both working from home and being very careful. I am being very careful. It would just be the three of us. But I’m not sure. I guess I don’t have to decide till next weekend.
Hospitalizations in our small local hospital went from 2 to 12 in one week. A serious issue is that the govt didn’t put any money into developing and providing quick tests. Somehow China can test a million people quickly when there is a positive cluster.
There will be half a million deaths by the time Biden is inaugurated at the rate we’re going.
Dan B
@jl: It seems the only places to conduct successful tests are the places where it is spreading rapidly and those tend to be countries with authoritarians like Bolsonari, Putin, Modi, and Trump who don’t believe in safeguarding the populace with science.
The Enderville Phantom
@opiejeanne:
Inslee’s been making noises this past week that something big was coming. I figured as much.
Back to square one … aka March again.
To think I was called a Negative Nancy then for saying we would not have hockey games here let alone with fans attending in October, that it could be years before. I doubt the wine bar patron went down the Danube on his cruise this September. “This COVID stuff will blow over by April.”
Dan B
@gwangung: Thanks. I read the Times but missed this.
WaterGirl
@Zelma: Totally OT:
I saw a photo for the BJ calendar today that said Zelma – Bandit, but some other jackal’s name was in front of Zelma.
Did you submit a pet photo to the calendar? Is your pet’s name Bandit?
J R in WV
@glory b:
I’m sorry for your losses, both of them. So sad! Take care, stay safe, keep in touch, please.
jl
@Dan B: Yes, that is true, but field trials that don’t work because not enough disease around is a good problem to have, all things considered. They are doing another trial on gyms in Norway in an area with higher prevalence. I’m looking forward to what they find. So far, that country has seen an upswing in cases that are more like outbreaks that they have been able to control (so far, knock on wood) not serious widespread resurgence.
One thing is that they respond quickly at first sign of a problem, rather than wait. Norway has already stopped in -person schooling and went to distance learning for two weeks. Though they’ve devoted the resources needed to be able to do that.
Zelma
@WaterGirl:
Yep. I submitted Bandit’s picture. You said you received it and I was so proud of myself for succeeding in uploading it. Little furry white dog.
The Moar You Know
@Dan B: No. But with regards to coronavirus, I see liberals and conservatives disregarding subject matter experts in very equal proportion.
Kent
At this point I have no idea what the federal strategy is other than just giving up. Perhaps they are trying to achieve herd immunity before Biden takes office.
All I can think at this point is that even with zero attempt to control this it will eventually be coming down by Jan. But the dealt toll of the last days of Trump is going to be a horror.
WaterGirl
@Zelma: Do you have an earthlink email address?
Is your pup on a 3-cushion gray sofa?
tokyokie
We (my wife and I) have been invited to spend Thanksgiving with my brother and his wife, who live in the country a couple of hours from us. Because of their remote location, they rarely see other people, except for when they make their weekly run to get groceries and other supplies. I work in health care and am tested for Covid twice a week. My brother’s youngest daughter, who’s a graduate student, would be the only other person at this affair. But I’m leaning toward staying at home.
Mai Naem mobile
@Suzanne: from what I read early on the triple layer blue surgical masks are the best below the N95 level. Obviously they aren’t reusable so you’re buying them constantly but they can be found relatively cheap online – just make sure you’re getting the 3 layer and not the two layer. I’ve seen a bunch of 2 layer ones online that are a steal.
The Moar You Know
@The Thin Black Duke: Aim higher. In Australia, the magic number was $1600. That got near-universal compliance.
PsiFighter37
@Viva BrisVegas: NZ is a bit different than Australia culturally. But both have the advantage of being islands and can cut themselves off from the rest of the world in an effective manner.
WaterGirl
@Mai Naem mobile: Do you happen to have a link to the 3-layer ones on Amazon? A million choices come up, but most of them don’t look like the blue surgical masks I have seen. I have no idea which ones to get.
charluckles
I think it’s nearly impossible to fully scope the complete failure of leadership at the national level. One of the things I am encountering now is that a lot of folks know someone who has had COVID and it was no worse than a bad cold. It should have been reinforced that while this might be a good thing for you on a personal level the number of asymptomatic and mild cases is actually a bad thing for a deadly communicable disease from a public health perspective.
gwangung
@Mai Naem mobile: I’m using, for the most part, disposable KN95 masks that are CDC approved for emergency use in medical situations (bleeding, surgical situations, etc.).
Ruckus
@WaterGirl:
My family is gone other than cousins. And aunts/uncles/parents have been gone for over 2 decades. So really we don’t get together often. All the extended family has moved all around the country so getting together is a major undertaking that I’m just not doing, this year especially. My best friend of almost 50 yrs, we FaceTime.
jl
@charluckles: One of the mysteries of covid is how it can bubble around for such a long time in an area and seem to many people like it’s no big deal, and then suddenly explode into a disaster that takes down the whole health care system for two or three months.
Twice already this year, half a dozen US metro areas demonstrated that one weird trick that covid has learned. You’d think people in other parts of the country to get a clue, but looks like they didn’t.
hitchhiker
@Mai Naem mobile:
Andy Slavitt has been promoting the Livinguard mask; I trust him so I bought one and have to say it’s easily the most comfortable. Impossible to know if it’s as effective as they say, but the fit is great.
Mai Naem mobile
I’ve now known a few people who’ve gotten COVID. Only one person said it was like a really bad cold/flu. One who didn’t believe in it got real sick for 2-3 weeks and was given decadron. The others were hospitalized for a couple of weeks. One person I know of am pretty sure got it in Dec but it wasn’t diagnosed as COVID. Young healthy talking walking guy who had a really bad upper respiratory with a real high temp. He ended up getting clots and had both legs amputated and is blind. He used to work at Phx Sky Harbor airport. He hasn’t been tested for antibodies. I will never forgive Orange Dbag and his whole extended asshole selfish family for fucking this up so bad. Never.
Dan B
@The Moar You Know: That’s discouraging but with the changing and contradictory messaging it is not surprising. Does this apply to Australia and New Zealand? They seem to have more consistent mass communication and have even left the communication to experts rather than politicians, an approach recommended by epidemiologists.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl:
I just bought these after reading this discussion. I have no idea if they’re the right ones.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B086KRDTLH/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1
Chetan Murthy
@Mai Naem mobile: Ohhhhhh …. I’m so sorry for him and for his family. Just reading your description of his plight …. tears come to my eyes. And I’m not the kind to tear up. I feel so awful just …. just ….. This poor young man, with his whole life ahead of him. If I weren’t already walled-up inside my house, I’d do so just for him.
Zelma
@WaterGirl:
That’s Bandit. And that’s me. Thanks for keeping on top of everything. Whatever John pays you, it’s not enough.<g>
Brachiator
@Kent:
I’m not seeing any strategy, apart from Trump asserting his will, out of spite. He said he would never suggest a lockdown. This stupid move encourages the spread of the virus, and also might make it harder for Biden to suggest a lockdown in the future, should that become necessary.
I also bet that Trump will take sole credit for the vaccine and claim that he was the only president who ever saved the American people from anything.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: Thanks for that. I was overwhelmed by all the choices. I just ordered 2 boxes.
Dan B
@Mai Naem mobile: We need more of the stories of your young guy who has permanent damage. And stories about people widowed or orphaned. The stories about overcrowded hospitals seem very emotionless.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl:
The comments seemed to all be positive, which wasn’t the case the last time I tried to make this purchase. I just bought two of the Livinguard masks (reusable) too, just to cover all the bases
AND FILL MY HOUSE WITH FUCKING MASKS
Scout211
@WaterGirl:
They carry them at Costco now in boxes of 50 for $11.99. We picked up a box even though we usually wear cloth masks. The ones we picked up at Costco seemed much higher quality than the ones we had ordered through amazon earlier in the year. The last time we were in Costco, they were also selling boxes of 600 masks for $94.
WaterGirl
@Zelma: Well, somehow you got glommed in with The Thin Black Duke, who has a Zenna, but I knew that didn’t look right when I saw it this afternoon. Yay, you are back with your own entry now in the spreadsheet.
John pays me zero. :-) That makes me a great bargain!
zhena gogolia
@Mai Naem mobile:
Was Covid in the US in December?
Chetan Murthy
@WaterGirl: This seems useful. I’m saving rubber bands so I can make this when my N95 masks finally give out.
https://www.designboom.com/design/former-apple-engineers-seal-your-surgical-mask-05-29-2020/
Ruckus
@Chetan Murthy:
Reality is that if we had a major lockdown that worked we would have done the same staying at home. It’s just that many more people would have done it as well and many more would still be alive. But that’s not where the dumb money goes. Dumb money bet on bullshit and it has bit them in the casket, along with many, many innocent people. We don’t have to be them, we just have to suffer longer because of their stupidity and their chosen idiot in chief.
WaterGirl
@Scout211: They just announced the opening of a Costco here!
Of course, this is not the time to be doing a lot of shopping. :-)
edit: I have never been to a Costco, but I was happy to hear the news. For after the pandemic, whenever the hell that will be.
debbie
@WaterGirl:
United Medical Supply (unitedmedicalmasks.com) have paper masks with three layers.
jl
@Brachiator:
” I also bet that Trump will take sole credit for the vaccine and claim that he was the only president who ever saved the American people from anything. ”
I can see it already: “I’ve done more for ‘The Blacks’ than any president in history, with the possible exception of Lincoln. I’ve done more for ‘The Americans’ than any president in history, with the possible exception of Washington, Lincoln, FDR, and Eisenhower all rolled into one.
WaterGirl
@Scout211: After the info that you shouldn’t have 2 layers of the same material, I am thinking I should wear the blue surgical mask underneath my cloth masks.
WaterGirl
@debbie: I saved that link, thanks.
Scout211
@WaterGirl:
True but if you are 60 or over, you can shop during the senior hour Monday through Friday and the store is usually not crowded. They also have a strong mask policy that they enforce.
Miss Bianca
@glory b: I am so sorry.
Martin
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): They’ll help.
But understand, pandemic responses are stochastic. For most of this time, our goal was to lower the number of people who get sick by 20% or so. So the mask helps, and it’ll keep some people from getting sick who are exposed, but it won’t stop everyone. The primary goal is to eliminate the chance of exposure, not protect you 100% from catching it.
Pandemics assume people will catch it. We assume that is ultimately unavoidable. The measures that officials are urging are the minimum – if done they will eventually protect the public. To protect *you*, you need to do more. The mask helps, but you can still get sick with the mask. Look at every front line worker that is getting sick. They wear masks religiously.
jl
@Martin: @Chetan Murthy: @Ruckus:
Good news is that Romer’s been working with epidemiologists and public health experts on how to adapt Chinese policy of mass pulse testing of an area to push down prevalence of disease fast and far down. For example, you just test everyone in a city over a few days or a week. That involves something like a shutdown for a few days for everyone, and up to two weeks for those who test positive. So, that approach can substitute or a prolonged onerous mass shut down.
Bad news is that type of program can’t happen on a wide scale on the US because our supply chain is so crummy, and availability of safe affordable places to isolate is low to nonexistent.
And if a resurgence is caught early enough, many places have success with targeted shutdowns to stop superspreader events.
But, a lot of the US is so bad, only totally horrible choices are left.
Martin
@zhena gogolia: Possibly. It just looks like viral pneumonia (something I’ve had). It was running around China throughout Dec but they didn’t realize it wasn’t just some random viral pneumonia until they started getting multiple people with it from different places, suggesting it was a contagion.
It’s possible that it came to the US in that time and there were isolated cases of viral pneumonia that were Covid, but because there was no outbreak, it was just chalked up to a regular pneumonia.
Ruckus
@Suzanne:
It really isn’t a choice with a pandemic. You have to change, adapt, live within the rules of the virus, not within the normal rules of society. The virus becomes the rule maker and the countries that came closest to doing this have done the best. You want to live in a massively pervasive virus zone, which is the entire planet, you live by the rules of the virus. Every major virus we’ve endured as a species has made this crystal clear. If we didn’t know how to control it or didn’t have the ability to control it, it controlled everything. In my youth we had small pox vaccine. That’s it. But one thing we had was a lot more space between most humans and that helped. We don’t have that in most places anymore, 6-7 billion people took care of that.
jl
@Martin: ” Look at every front line worker that is getting sick. They wear masks religiously. ”
In retail without a huge volume of traffic, just a mask is probably is enough. Probably need more than a drug store surgical mask for high traffic places like fast food all day. And totally inadequate in nonretail worksites where
aerosolization is a big risk.
Danielx
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
We are covided.
Which I suspect will become the equivalent of “we are so fucked”.
Mai Naem mobile
@WaterGirl: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08JMCFX9Q/ref=cm_sw_r_other_apa_i_HskSFbV7ND8JS?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08FD53375/ref=cm_sw_r_other_apa_i_KwkSFbMF8CMZ1?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1
I think the first one was one we got early on. I believe it was one of their deal of the day ones. The second one is similar. I was at Costco a month ago and they had some at the pharmacy but I didn’t bother to look at them. I try and find ones that say they are okay to use in a medical facility. I figure those are good to go.
sdhays
@PsiFighter37: Places like Taiwan also experienced SARS 1 around 17 years ago. I was actually living there at the time and the response was chaotic. They had quarantined entire hospitals in the north and people were pretty scared. But while the response was a bit ham-handed, they got it under control. And the government clearly worked to make sure they were better prepared for the next time.
True story: I was living in a university dormitory with 3 roommates at the time. The university’s response was to issue each room an oral thermometer to use to check our temperatures. It was comical, but fortunately we never needed to use it.
Mai Naem mobile
@zhena gogolia: yes. I believe they said there were cases even earlier. The reason i think his issue was COVID was because he worked at the airport.
Mousebumples
@Scout211: confirmed. I saw those in Costco today and debated buying them. I have what feels like a shitton of masks already, and which ones are best??
Benw
@WaterGirl: you need a raise
:)
NotMax
@WaterGirl
Just returned from the monthly sojourn to Costco a few minutes ago. While there I saw (ugh!) tubs of pumpkin pie hummus.
Display was full (unlike the ones for regular hummus beside it), apparently no takers for the stuff.
Ruckus
@Barbara:
Most of us alive today were born/raised at a time when the US was the dominate country, we had the mfg, the safety of no to minimal war on our land and a system of government that was reasonable for a large portion of the citizens. Not everyone mind you, we after all were and still are a rather racist country. A work seemingly in progress. Hopefully. It has led to a raising of a sizable percentage of the population being entitled brats because they were told how great Americans were/are and how crappy the rest of the world is. It is bullshit of the highest order but it’s there. The Ugly American was and is a reality. I’ve sat next to some of them on planes and I wanted to smack them with a large solid object, but I didn’t have one. I noticed that most of the people around me were acting the same as me, so it isn’t near 100% but it’s there and it’s real.
Mai Naem mobile
@gwangung: i have a real hard time with KN95s. I am impressed by the hospital staff who wear them for 12 hrs. If they were mandatory I would wear them. I can feel the perspiration around my nose and mouth .
sdhays
I don’t know if this was mentioned before, but holy shit:
IANAL, but this seems to me to suggest that every single action taken by DHS since Kirstjen Nielsen resigned last year is null and void, not just the suspension of DACA.
Danielx
@Martin:
I’m getting tired of seeing stuff where the first words that come to mind are “fuck those guys”.
Martin
@jl: Yeah, it’s not just that our supply chain is bad. You need a few things in order to do that successfully:
It worked in China because they rolled in so quickly so early, that they never had to do that nationally. That’s true of most nations that knocked it down quickly. But it’s so widespread in the US, you’d have to do one area, then isolate it in a bubble while you moved onto the next area. You’d need strict travel restrictions to that bubble, basically splitting the country in half – one growing in size as you crank through this process, the other shrinking as you pull regions into lockdown, test them, and then put them in the bubble. I don’t think there’s any part of the US that could escape this process because of how badly we’ve allowed it to fester.
gene108
@Dan B:
India is not ignoring science. If the U.S. response had been half as vigorous as India’s, we’d have probably a quarter of the cases we have now.
From October 29, 2020 article
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/indias-covid-19-cases-have-declined-rapidly-herd-immunity-still-far-away-scientists-say
Brachiator
@NotMax:
My grandmother, my great great grandfather. A relative we discovered in an old census who was apparently born in 1798, and her father.
William Shakespeare, Ben Franklin, Frederick Douglass, Malcolm X. Ida B. Wells. Jane Austen.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Jared: We need a Jim Baker!
trump: What TV shows is he on?
Last time I saw the would-be power couple of Toensing and diGenova, trump interviewed them at the White House as impeachment counsel and didn’t hire them because Joe diG was a slob. I wonder if any of these idiots have enough self-awareness– or just awareness– to be embarrassed to be on this list with each other. I mean… Jenna Ellis? Sidney Powell is a name I don’t recognize
jl
@Martin: Good points. Comes to mind now that Romer and others on the team were working on this approach in spring in summer. Infection levels probably are far too high and widespread now.
If San Francisco Bay Area were like the midwest, doing SF one week and north part of East Bay the next week, there would just be too many leakages. And where to put all the quarantines and isolations? Several other countries have worked on that, in US even places that have, like SF, have barely made a dent in what is needed.
WaterGirl
@Benw: At least double!
WaterGirl
@NotMax: oh my god. pumpkin pie hummus. shudder.
Richard
@Dorothy A. Winsor: hello. We are planning to not do our harvest festival this year. We are in trouble. We will skip it for this year.
We can keep it in small ways but that is all. Sorry.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@WaterGirl: I saw pumpkin spice English muffins the other day
mrmoshpotato
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK!
Kent
@sdhays:
Should make it much easier for Biden to blanket reverse all of Trumps DHS regulatory changes without going through the long regulatory process. Just declare them all null and void for being improperly promulgated.
Ruckus
@rikyrah:
I’m a machinist. I can not bring the machine shop home, I have to either not work or go to work. We social distance pretty well just by the nature of the work, but not 100% of the time, it’s impossible, just like Goku. But I wear a mask all day long and take breaks/lunch away from others. And other than going to the grocery store, I don’t go anywhere but the VA, which is 100% masks to even walk in the door, also with video appointments as possible. I think I’ve driven less than 200 miles since January. Now Monday I have to go to the dentist (new) and I’ve been told it’s 100% masks, other than when mouth is being worked on. Which is fine by me.
jl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: ” the would-be power couple of Toensing and diGenova, trump interviewed them at the White House as impeachment counsel and didn’t hire them because Joe diG was a slob. ”
How big a slob is diGenova, if Bannon could get a job? Must be quite a sight (and smell?)
mrmoshpotato
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Time to make a 10-foot slap-your-selfish-unmasked-face pole!
These! Selfish! Idiots!
MagdaInBlack
@NotMax:
My paternal Great grandfather, who was with Sherman on his March.
His mother, who came here in 1853, a widow with 3 children.
My maternal grandmother, who died of TB when my mother was 6.
Maternal grandfather, a Chicago fireman, who died when my mother was 16.
My father, who died when I was 20. My mother, who died 10 years ago.
And my husband, who died when I was 38.
That’s not 10, but OH! what grand conversation that would be ! =-)
Geoduck
According to Wikipedia, she’s something resembling a real lawyer who got on the Shiatgibbon’s radar by working with Michael Flynn.
Another Scott
@mrmoshpotato: 251,256 dead in the USA according to Worldometers.info I don’t know why their numbers are a few thousand higher than the JHU numbers, but there’s been an offset for months.
:-(
Cheers,
Scott.
Richard
@NotMax: Alexander von Humboldt, Edith Durham, Rebecca West, Pancho Villa, Brigham Young, Wovoka, Ali Pasha, Mavis Staples, Dolly Parton, and the nice guy at the corner store.
jl
I was going to mention this earlier, but forgot:
” What The Fuck is Wrong With People ”
If Cole wants to get the Director of Health Education position with the Biden covid task force, he needs to take a different direction.
Dan B
@gene108: Good to hear! I had only noticed their cases increasing to something like 6 million or so and it seemed very fast.
At least one authoritarian is following science.
Suzanne
@Ruckus:
Most people can’t do that, and thus they will not.
If we had good leadership, we could make sure people had resources and we didn’t leave them not knowing what to do with their kids while they try to work.
NotMax
@Brachiator
I should have specified non-familial. Off the top o’ the noggin:
Dorothy Parker
Alexander Wollcott
Ben Franklin
Harpo Marx
Augustus Caesar
Marian Anderson
Aristophanes
The Mahdi
Sir Richard Burton
Empress Wu Zetian
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax: “Who put the turkey in the toilet!”
Cckids
@opiejeanne: I saw that. I’m at work at a grocery store in Bellevue, and that little leak just blew us up; crowds are here, stocking up before another lockdown starts.
I’ve really noticed the last month how people have really relaxed; they’re shopping with friends & family again, and TONS of people are bringing their kids in again. It boggles my mind. I often work self checkout-there are six machines; two sets of three; about ten feet between the two sides. It’s not uncommon for each machine to have 3 or 4 people at it. And I have to worm my way through this crowd to help at any machine. It’s insane, and if I weren’t exhausted I would be terrified. We have two cashiers out with Covid as of yesterday; who knows if that will grow. Our plexiglass shields at registers are a joke; they stop at my shoulder, so I can lean around it to load the cart. People regularly tug their masks down to talk to me “so you can hear me”.
I don’t know if anything will make people be sensible. All afternoon today, people are discussing their thanksgiving plans-“just a few family-10-12”.
Because you can’t possibly get it from family, right? I’m biting my tongue, swearing behind my mask ; rolling my eyes like a teenager. So tired, so done.
And dinner hour is over, back to the fray. Catch y’all later, thx for listening.
Kay
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
“FREE” is right:
What this means is they’re not paying a legal team anymore. He listed the Fox news guest list along with Ellis, and he already had to pay Ellis. These people are “the best lawyers” because they’re the “free lawyers”.
Ruckus
@WaterGirl:
Most people don’t do maths and odds very well. It isn’t that they couldn’t, at least in many cases, it’s that they were never properly educated. We use basic math and trigonometry at work all day long, and I often do high precision work to 4 and 5 decimal places. And I often have to show people how easy it is if you can understand it. They just never learned it in school. Decades ago we had a man working for us as a helper, who had dropped out of school in the 4th grade to work and support his mother. He could add/subtract and knew what multiply/divide was but was not practiced. We taught him trigonometry in short bursts over 2 months and he had no problem getting it and using it. Was able to do more and earn more. Not at all dumb, just under educated. A lot of the US population falls directly into that pool. It does cost money to educate people and rich suckers really, really do not want to pay that money. Even if it made them more. They are the real fucking idiots. Like their leader.
JoyceH
You mean like when you read a news article about how COVID-truthers keep trying to sneak into the Provo ICU, hoping to get video ‘evidence’ that the ICU isn’t all that crowded and the pandemic is a big fat hoax?
CaseyL
@zhena gogolia: Those are, apparently, already sold out. I ordered a different brand, which I hope will be sufficient – a little bit of panic buying, as I envision yet another PPE shortage in the immediate future.
@opiejeanne: Thanks for that head’s up! I called my bubble people, my neighbors, and we think it’s still OK for me to go over there to watch the game tomorrow – but we’re not sure about Thanksgiving. It would still just be the three of us. I’ll have to watch Inslee’s press conference tomorrow; maybe there will be more details. Like, can we keep our bubbles going.
mrmoshpotato
@Kay: Is Ghouliani going to threaten to start biting people if they don’t give Dump a second bastard term?
MagdaInBlack
@Cckids:
I’m thinking a lot tonight about my corporate masters, pushing for the same budget numbers as before covid. Which means meet the same number of people every day as before. Which, to me, seems to pretty much guarantee infection.
We’re in the midst of a pandemic, but by god push those numbers.
I’m so disgusted right now.
Eta: Corporate masters who are, of course, working from home.
Martin
@jl: Generally you quarantine at home, but enforcement is a challenge when the public isn’t compliant. You need to be able to put consequences of breaking quarantine. I would think that in a situation where this where you’re basically building a comprehensive registry of who is and isn’t infected would itself go a long way toward compliance of quarantine.
Some other things would help a lot – making it illegal to fire people who are quarantined, making sure they are paid regardless of if they have leave, etc. A lot of people aren’t compliant because they have reasons why they can’t be. That has to be addressed, and not in the bullshit way the previous relief bills were.
debbie
@Mai Naem mobile:
I keep a paper mask in my car, hanging off the turn signal thing. Since I’m only in the car once a week, I’ve reused it a couple of times when I forget to bring a cloth mask with me.
Ruckus
@Brachiator:
Difficult to rent tables or other large gathering stuff these days, at least around here. Down the street where I work is a very large party rental/supply place. Normally they have so much going on it actually amazes me. Since the whole Covid thing started they are locked up. No workers, no medium duty stake trucks delivering tables, tents, whatever one needs for a big party, no semi trucks bringing more supplies. That’s probably 40 people out of work in one business, for what, 9 months now.
SiubhanDuinne
Of all the political bogeymen from the past, I really didn’t expect to see the Rev. Jeremiah Wright making a 2020 return appearance. Yet there he is on my teevee, shouting “GOD DAMN AMERICA!” just like in the old days. Kelly Loeffler approved this ad against Raphael Warnock, I guess because it worked so well against Barack Obama in 2008.
MagdaInBlack
@NotMax: Yes, you probably should have, because I want people with whom I share a common thread, and whom I missed getting to know. But, that’s just me =-)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@MagdaInBlack: I’m with you. Picking ten people out of history just overwhelms me. I started thinking about rebuilding my family
NotMax
@MagdaInBlack
The problem at this end with listing relations is that we have no frame of reference to glean anything about them other than they’re nice.
Mai Naem mobile
When I went to Costco they had these deals up front with hand sanitizer. I think there were two different sizes. Anyhow they were really well priced but alas I look at the label and it was made in China. I just find the Chinese made hand sanitizer to have a residue which makes your hands feel like you haven’t cleaned them.
debbie
@Mai Naem mobile:
Purell started showing up at Target about a month ago.
The Lodger
@sdhays:
@mrmoshpotato: Pumpkin spice fig bars are another thing that doesn’t work.
MagdaInBlack
@NotMax: I feel like with all those historical luminaries, I’d just be the cook, server and clean up person ;-)
Betsy
@Sebastian:
I am right there with you.
NotMax
@MagdaInBlack
I’d be content with that role so long as I can listen.
:)
NotMax
@NotMax
Reminiscent of the woefully underrated clever and informative show Steve Allen put together and hosted on PBS, Meeting of Minds.
Another Scott
@WaterGirl:
;-)
We still have about 100 of the paper masks (dunno how many layers), but they don’t fit me as well as the cloth ones I got from Etsy (even trying the “trick” of tying a [k]not in the elastic close to the paper). I figure a well-fitting mask is more important than having a filter that works better in laboratory conditions, myself. Here’s hoping they work well for you (and everyone else!).
Cheers,
Scott.
MagdaInBlack
@NotMax:
Looked it up on Youtube. That would be fun =-)
Eta: I loved Steve Allen
laura
@glory b: Please accept my condolences and I wish you peace and grace.
NotMax
@Another Scott
The ones which fit me best (as well as are most comfortable and easiest to breathe while wearing) are the repurposed yarmulkes I ordered and altered when masks were in short supply and prices on them had gone stratospheric.
YMMV.
catclub
I have a deep suspicion that my county is testing as little as possible, and the numbers are artificially low. There are no drive up test sites.
TriassicSands
@tokyokie:
Staying home is safe. I’m sure that even good, caring people may underestimate their own exposure and overestimate their own care. You can’t control others. Stay safe.
There is no reason you can’t celebrate a Thanksgiving in April or July. That’s assuming Americans are ever capable of being responsible enough to get beyond COVID-19. I have my doubts.
Another Scott
@Felanius Kootea: Thanks very much to the pointer to the Medium piece. It’s excellent.
Cheers,
Scott.
Ruckus
@Viva BrisVegas:
Smaller, very spread out populations. Sure they have big cities but they are not like NYC or LA. And it’s the basic culture in any particular country that counts. New Zealand has very good healthcare for everyone. And that gives them a control that we don’t have. NZ also has a rather good leader. From what I’ve read, the biggest factor in any country is the leadership, did they want to stop this as fast as possible, or get as much vanity going as possible. Other leaders went for citizen safety and the US went for vanity, with the most vain leader of most all countries outside dictatorships.
Ruckus
@WaterGirl:
I make masks of 2 layers of cloth with a removable layer of filter paper inbetween. The paper can be easily replaced and the cloth washed. Not perfect of course but better than most.
catclub
suppose you used a mask, then left it for a week. Would it be usable for reuse in that case?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@NotMax:
I remember that one.
jl
@Martin: ” making it illegal to fire people who are quarantined, making sure they are paid regardless of if they have leave, etc. A lot of people aren’t compliant because they have reasons why they can’t be. That has to be addressed, and not in the bullshit way the previous relief bills were. ”
This is a big problem in SF North Bay (Sonoma, Napa, and Solano). Many exposed and infected can’t afford to stay home, or are afraid to stay home 24/7 because of family members in dense housing, or afraid of retaliation from employers. And they are generally scared of being sick and would like to rest rather than work all day, for a disease like covid. At least that is what news reports, and watchdog workers’ rights organizations are saying.
And this is seven months into the epidemic, in California, which is supposed to be one of the nanny states fussing over the epidemic like an obsessive helicopter mom, unlike the Freedom States. But still not solved. Those counties are big problems in CA upswing in cases too.
jl
@Ruckus: Good leadership. And just as important, whomping on the bug early. Getting ahead of the epidemic as early as possible is one of the most important elements of control. Research on MERS, SARS, Ebola, other diseases give the same result. And if you look at the dozen or so most successful countries at controlling covid, they all started efforts very early.
Taiwan, where you can go to the local tea house for a refresher cup and a snack, or even a bubble tea(!), egg waffle(!!), eat inside a restaurant, and go to a fricken baseball game, started ramping up control efforts by first half of January.
Brachiator
@NotMax:
Some of the family members were as important to personal and general history, as much as more formally noteworthy persons.
jl
@Ruckus: Early whomping on disease trumps population density I think. Just checked, and Hong Kong is still doing very well. And last I read, no recorded transmissions in its mass transit system. But they all wear masks.
I think masks are very important, at least for community spread in normal circumstances (though not in many crowded worksites, like ag processing plants or warehouses, where aerosols probably a big problem). For some problems, just observing practical results is better than just relying on a lot of simulation modelling research, which the US seems to obsess over. Seems like in US, it is really only science if it is incomprehensible techno-wonk for all but the specialists.
Brachiator
@Ruckus:
Here in Southern California, I think that a lot of restaurants bought up a lot of tables and chairs to set up outdoor dining. Some of their regular stuff could not always be re-purposed. And who knows what the other reasons might be. But yeah, the impact of the pandemic on a lot of businesses has been devastating.
NotMax
@Brachiator
Even so, saying, as a wild and presumably fictitious example, “my great-grandfather” rather than “Enrico Fermi” conveys significantly less to us great (metaphorically) unwashed out here in digiland.
Ruckus
@Suzanne:
Of course we could do it, with reasonable leadership and a congress that half of isn’t stupider than a street lamp.
We can’t do this with our “leadership’s” head up his ass and the people that voted for him standing around sniffing each other.
I didn’t say it would be easy, or that the country had to work it’s ass off to make it happen but the virus rules, no longer the people. As I state above I’m still working and while I’m not the most compromised person, I have a lot of comorbidities. Age, over 70, check. Heart attack, check. Cancer, with radiation treatment, check. Ongoing neurological issues, check. Meniere’s disease, check. Controlled BP, check. I’m not the wreck I sound like outward normal heath signs are good and my docs say I’m actually healthy for my age. I’m still active and work. But this virus doesn’t really give a damn about all of that. How many people who were in excellent health are dead, or have had most of their life stripped away?
My point is that the virus is in charge of life at this time. We can block a lot of it but we have to play by it’s rules or we lose. The US is the perfect example of doing everything wrong and expecting a different result. And we are losing. Massively. A twist on the old saying, Can’t live with it, only in spite of it
That is what government was supposed to do, make it reasonable possible to do it and if that was done, most of us would suffer about the same. We didn’t do that at all.
Brachiator
@NotMax:
But it’s my dinner, so my choice of guests.
I get the comparison to the wonderful Steve Allen show, but as I noted, some of the people I chose are representative of people who contribute to society and to history whose stories are never told.
Ruckus
@Brachiator:
It was at first where I work. I normally work 3 days a week but I’ve missed about 2 months of work since this started but lately I’ve been working 4 days because we are actually busy. One of our customers makes molds for plastic products (as I used to do and so did this company), and they have been making a lot of molds for something to do with COVID, so we are going gangbusters, we do a lot of the work that goes on the smaller bits and pieces that get hardened and then finish machining. As soon as we get done with one batch they bring more. It has to be a big project for this much
BTW I’m in socal as well, eastern San Gabriel Valley.
NotMax
@Brachiator
In no way denigrating your choices. If anything the onus is on me for not being more specific in my asking.
TomatoQueen
If you were able to gather any 10 people from throughout all of history to break bread with at Thanksgiving, who might you choose?
Good talkers and good listeners: A J Liebling, FPA, Martha Gellhorn, Seamus Heaney, James Beard, all at the modern table. At the ancient table, Hypatia, Cleopatra, Seneca, Maimonides, Spinoza. Then we switch around and I let in Barbara Jordan, Ann Richards, Molly Ivins, and Gwen Ifill.
Brachiator
@NotMax:
No problem. But I think that my choices play fair with your question. I selected people whose voices deserve to be heard, not just notable personalities from history.
I tried to do more than round up the usual suspects.
2liberal
what, no bleach?
NotMax
@2liberal
There are folks who prefer the dark meat. Bleach renders that option inoperative.
:)
Gvg
@catclub: There are rapid tests available here but they charge 100. 15 minute results.
There have been rumors from the beginning that some positive results are being suppressed. I just don’t know how to evaluate that.
debbie
@Another Scott:
Should you stop back:
I have some paper masks that are too big for me. I twist the loops before hooking around my ears. It helps pull the bottom of the mask up a bit.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
It seems like we’re on the verge of getting an effective vaccine approved and a large chunk of America has decided to rush to try to achieve herd immunity before it arrives in a few weeks, intentionally.
WaterGirl
@Ruckus: I love the masks I have – they fit perfectly and are comfortable. They are made of two layers of the same material, and finding out that is not what is recommended NOW is the only thing giving me pause.
joel hanes
@WaterGirl:
I will adopt you. I already have an intentional family that extends my biological family; would love to add you.
Consider yourself invited to these non-plague-year family holiday events in northern California:
Feb or Mar Dungeness crab feeds at the Portuguese community center; Easter morning brunch and backyard baskets/eggs; harvest festival at Ardenwood Farm in early Oct; pumpkin carving and candy distribution on Hallowe’en; groaning-board too-much-food Thanksgiving with turkey and traditional dishes and wine, and salmon and roast vegetables for the non-turkey-eaters, massive cookie-baking and distribution early Dec; massively overdone Christmas morning with stockings and too many gifts and brunch.
We’ll pick you up at the airport, and find you a place to stay.
Fourth of July is lakeside in northern Iowa
joel hanes
@WaterGirl:
When I go to the grocery store in California, I wear a two-layer synthetic mask under the two-layer cotton mask.
I’m in Iowa right now, and would never risk going into a store; we’re having the groceries delivered, and for everything else, it’s curbside or do without. I haven’t stepped into a building in which I wasn’t living for about a month.
Miss Bianca
@NotMax: That was one of my must-see TV shows when I was in high school! That and The Muppet Show was basically all I watched my senior year!
Ithink
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): m
Dude, where are you working at now where that much PPE I’d required? Still a hospital, right? Please stay as healthy as possible and don’t get it if you can at all help it.
Toxic
@Jeffro:
You are so very wrong and it’s just wishful thinking to claim otherwise. The editorial is 100% correct, it did work in that almost half of the US electorate despite covid incompetence, economic depression and being directly insulted by Trump still voted for fucker. Wake up!