Forbes reports that several regions are at minimal ICU capacity:
Jackson, Mississippi—the state’s capital—has “zero” ICU beds available, while the rest of the state has “very few,” State Health Officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs said.
Tulsa health officials announced Tuesday night that the city had run out of ICU beds…
Ed Yong makes a terrifying point:
Here’s a thing I want everyone to understand.
There is a roughly 12-day lag between rising cases rising hospitalizations.
So the 1.5 million (!!!) confirmed cases from the last 2 weeks have not yet factored into stories about packed emergency rooms. https://t.co/JID98tWjbt pic.twitter.com/3DNeiX2esb
— Ed Yong (@edyong209) November 15, 2020
We need to think about lags.
- Deaths lag ICU admissions.
- ICU admissions lag hospitalizations.
- Hospitalizations lag diagnostic test results.
- Diagnostic test results lag infections.
If no one is infected today, we won’t see much change in trends on hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths until the first week of December.
Election day infections are starting to hit the hospitals now. On November 3rd, Election Day, there were 86,000+ diagnosed cases. On November 15th, a Sunday which is usually a “light” day, there were 139,000+ diagnosed cases. We are building a huge bolus of need that has yet to actualized. That need will be arriving on a system that is already at capacity.
We’re going to be entering a dark period for the next several weeks. We need to drive down future ICU demand. That means masking up. That means not mixing with people outside of our households. We’re entering the suck. We can only reduce the duration of the suck.
The downside of competition
narya
Whew. I did a quick run to the store yesterday (a friend w a car, so I could get heavy stuff, stock up on TP and olive oil and flour). I am picking up a frozen turkey at an outdoor market next Saturday, but am otherwise planning on going nowhere and seeing no one. I think I will still run in the morning–masked!!–because I can do it away from others, but otherwise . . . nope.
Raven Onthill
And something like 30% of the country is planning Thanksgiving dinners without safety precautions.
It is going to be a dark Christmas.
West of the Rockies
But, but… I won’t be muzzled!
Dog forbid Republicans be asked to listen to science or mask their bearded faces. Heaven forbid we not hit the gym or bar.
burnspbesq
Good interim news from the Moderna vaccine trial.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/health/moderna-vaccine-results-coronavirus/index.html
narya
@Raven Onthill: I am SO HAPPY that my old (85/90) and at-risk (organ transplant/COPD) parents are not going to my brother’s for Thanksgiving.
Geoboy
291,557.
That’s the number of US combat deaths in three and a half years in World War 2. It looks like Donald Trump is going to kill more Americans in ten months than the Nazis and Japanese military did in four and a half times that long.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
And this gets back to, Trump is running a death cult and his followers are spreading disease and misery as a loyalty test. The suck, at lest in Right kind of places is going to be long and painful.
geg6
This is just terrifying. I really don’t want to go almost anywhere at this point.
We’ve had a bubble we built with my sister and her husband. She pretty much doesn’t leave the house and he only leaves to go to the grocery or hardware store. I go to campus two days a week and am masked, tested regularly and never meet with students in my office, only in a conference room with plastic barrier between me and the student with each of us at one end of the long conference table and masked. My John only goes out to work at our camp in the rural north of the state and to the store. The four of us are having Thanksgiving together. I’m pretty sure we’ll be safe. It’s going to suck because holidays in my family are usually about 15-20 people, sometimes more depending on how may “orphans” are around without plans. I’m not sure we’re even going to do Christmas at all. I’m trying to figure out how to get gifts to the clan. They all live fairly close by, so we will probably drive to each house, phone from outside and leave the gifts on the porch, deck or breezeway, waving from the car.
I’m so angry about this. This never had to happen. It’s a good thing I don’t get out much because I am not confident I won’t assault the first asshole I see violating masking. And I need a hobby because I need something to work out some of this anger. It’s gonna kill me.
rjnerd
A worse thought, deaths lag cases by 3.5-4 weeks. (and our success keeping deaths under 1% is dependent on having treatment available, look to N. Dakota for death rates, where a bunch of cases are in places that have minimal treatment options, and rates are more like 4%)
Cheryl Rofer
I figure it will be February before cases start going down.
trollhattan
We were in a promising trend mid-fall following our scary July infections and deaths peaks, but the last couple weeks are horrifying with many new infections. In addition to the lag before impact on hospitalizations, I suppose that will be echoed by a similar increase in deaths. Don’t know a way to ascertain what age groups are represented in the new infections and it’s possible they skew young (as have overall infections during the pandemic as a whole) and then deaths might not spike as they did last summer. Those are overwhelmingly 60+ years.
This does not portend well for winter, overall.
geg6
@Cheryl Rofer:
That’s what I think, too.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@rjnerd: Don’t have to even go to the Dakotas, Texas is back to it’s summer death rate of 120+ a day
jonas
Eh, it’s all a bunch of Soros-funded crisis actors on fake ventilators. I’m heading to the bar.
— Trump Nation
Delk
I went to the hospital this morning. It was the third time since the pandemic. Yearly eye exam, cat scan on my ear, and this morning a MRI on the same ear. The ER and the ICU might be packed but the rest of the hospital is great. The “no visitors “ policy makes the hospital a breeze. No kids running around or relatives with flowers trying to find the right elevator. Everything running smoother. Today was the first time the hospital used ‘verbal consent’ at registration eliminating clip boards and pens.
The crackpot deniers would never be able to get anywhere near the ICU. They see the emptiness at the front door as proof that the virus is a hoax. Assholes.
gvg
Well I made myself a first try at an improved mask this weekend. I have felt smothered in masks and realized it was because everytime I breathed in, the mask gets sucked against my nostrils and it was like a blanket on my face. I figured out that I needed to put some ribbing inside the mask to keep it away from by nostrils and mouth. I little googling found a tip from sewers of historical costumes who use large zip ties for corsets and other devises. Recommendations are to use cotton woven at between 600 to 800 threads per inch and fabric stores just don’t have that info plus it’s obvious they aren’t that tight. I bought a 725 sheet to cut up. It’s a LOT more sewing since I had to use bias tape to make channels for the large zip ties (home depot). I realize I am annoyed with my capitalist system for failing to offer what I needed already made. Sewing is something I can do but it is really really not one of my fun activities.
The result is a huge improvement I wish I had figured out this summer when it was hot because the masks really bothered me then. I think I can do even better with the fit, and I’ve got to make myself keep doing it. I really should have several for work. My mother wants one, she is bothered by them too. I am realizing i probably must make at least one for all my family. I am feeling like I hate sewing…I don’t want my family to die so I have to.
trollhattan
@Geoboy:
I dare not pick up my “We’re #1” foam finger from the cleaners for the celebration.
Maybe it becomes more than Trump wishes to handle and he simply leaves the WH and doesn’t come back. We need adults back in there, stat.
Zinsky
It is going to be a death-filled next few months; I just had a close friend die of lung cancer because he couldn’t get in to see his doctor for four months from April until October. He finally got in, was diagnosed with Stage 4 lung cancer and died within three weeks. I don’t blame the system – he smoked for 40 years and earned it. But COVID is causing other death to pile up that might not otherwise. SO sad.
Percysowner
I admit I’m worried. I just sold my house and will be moving 2 days before Thanksgiving. That means interacting with movers and the Dish installer. I haven’t interacted with people outside my bubble for months. I get curbside pickup, no contact delivery. I did the closing masked and outside. We have had 8,000 case in Ohio. It’s just so scary. The fact that I have year round allergies that mean I cough and drain ALL THE TIME doesn’t help.
I’m going to mask up, open all the windows and doors, keep a safe distance and hope for the best.
trollhattan
@jonas:
The “good” news is if they keep holding their superspreader events their sunset is hastened.
I’ll be very glad when the last Trumper trots off as credits roll.
Feathers
My town in Massachusetts, and the one next door where I do most of my shopping, are still showing green, but I can feel the awfulness encroaching.
Apparently the vaccines are reaching approval status so quickly because so many of the volunteers who got the placebo have now gotten COVID during this surge. Horrified and so, so grateful to all the vaccine trial volunteers.
Kent
Here in the Portland metro we are still way behind much of the rest of the country in terms of Covid rate. But my wife says that Kaiser is now basically at 100% capacity with their ICUs. Basically we haven’t seen the worst yet and they are already full up. Some of it is from the dumbass Idaho patients who got shipped here.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Delk: My uncle has to get surgery to get a rotator cuff fixed and I asked him if he wasn’t concerned about COVID risk, he said the surgery is done in a completely different building than the hospitals’ ICU for that very reason.
cmorenc
If the proportion of the US population in the months after the onset of WW2 had behaved as piggishly selfish in disregard of need for collective cooperation and putting up with modest inconvenience as are wilfully showing in the face of this pandemic, the German and Japanese empires would rule the world including the US as a vassal state to one or both of them. But we didn’t back then – shirkers were harshly shunned.
raven
If the vaccines are effective and they get distributed what will life be like?
Raoul Paste
The promising Moderna vaccine was developed in cooperation with Dr Fauci’s team
Fauci currently has Secret Service protection because of threats to him from the Fire Fauci crowd. Trump has insulted Fauci so much recently and now what is Trump doing? Taking credit for this Moderna breakthrough of course
It’s too bad that we can’t put these Fire Fauci folks at the back of the vaccine line
PenAndKey
I took up knife making and small goods leather making just so I could trick my mind into thinking the online community for both was enough socializing for me. My wife is convinced that I just want to make things to stab people with in a bit of misplaced anger, but… well… she might be right.
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
My dad had to have shoulder surgery done too and he actually had to drive about 40 minutes from his usual hospital because none of the hospitals in La Crosse, WI are doing ‘elective’ surgery right now. They’re completely full and locked down.
Sure Lurkalot
@gvg: I make masks with zip ties too. I have found some high thread count cotton but also use lower and a non woven interfacing on the outer layer (an inner layer holds the boning). I also make an easier mask with sizes that fit just about everyone…I either use interfacing or an actual 3rd layer of polypropylene or chiffon.
I didn’t sew before this so I probably like it more because it’s new. I still get cooking, walking and BJ in!
Delk
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: ouch! I hope it isn’t his dominant arm. Rotary cuff rehab is tough. Took quite a while before I was able reach overhead in the kitchen cabinets.
Another Scott
@Cheryl Rofer:
“Mardi Gras 2021 falls on Tuesday, February 16, 2021”
I think others have made the point that Louisiana was so badly hit early on because of Mardi Gras. It’s hard not to see the cycle starting up again next year unless things change.
:-(
Cheers,
Scott.
Roger Moore
That means not going to Thanksgiving parties or shopping on Black Friday. I think every state needs to shut down non-critical retail today, or Black Friday is going to be the biggest superspreader event yet.
Yarrow
@raven: The Roaring 20’s may offer some insights.
Litlebritdifrnt
@Percysowner: My Niece has sold her house and will be moving on Thanksgiving. She has recruited the entire extended family to help her move and DH, while he is happy to help in normal circumstances, is worried that we are all going to get fined (up to £1,000) for breaking the current rules (we are in lockdown until Dec 1).
Villago Delenda Est
The for profit health care paradigm needs to be annihilated.
yellowdog
I’m in Maryland, which is only moderately horrible. I’ve decided tho, that I’m only going out for weed, wine, and groceries until February.
Gin & Tonic
@Roger Moore: Boy, I haven’t set foot in a retail establishment on the Friday after Thanksgiving in over a decade. Do people still do that?
Nutmeg again
whoa. I sent this to a couple of folks–not that they don’t know or aren’t careful, just, whoa.
I and a lot of my family live in New England; I think we are in slightly better shape. We have more hospital capacity, and our governors have been somewhat less prone to fuckery. (Lamont and Baker). Still, it’s very sobering.
I am planning a 100% Skype Thanksgiving. My kid lives in Germany anyway, so, yeah. But no family gatherings. I think it’s been hard for my niece-in-law to explain to her large and elderly Cantonese-speaking family. She’s kind of under pressure to do the big holiday, and she want to. But I’m not going… notwithstanding new baby, and mom is an amazing cook, and who doesn’t miss warmth and laughter and all the good things?
PS. For Betty Cracker: I live in an area with a lot of Polish families–I couldn’t help but notice the butter lambs in the supermarket for Thanksgiving. I was so excited to know what they are! But, I thought they were an Easter thing.
jonas
@trollhattan: Sure, but how many other people who don’t wish to play chicken with the grim reaper will they take with them in the meantime? This isn’t like choosing not to wear a motorcycle helmet where you’re only putting yourself at risk if worse comes to worst — it’s like choosing to drive drunk and figuring, well, if you T-bone some other car at an intersection and kill a passenger, well, that’s their problem.
cokane
Yong’s point on the lag is good, but death rates have plummeted since the initial wave, due to better treatment (and more frequent testing). Obviously we’re going to get a spike of deaths but it’s likely to be less coincident with cases than previous spikes.
Gin & Tonic
@Delk: Having badly broken my dominant arm some years back, I can attest that there are a lot of things that become much more difficult.
jonas
@Villago Delenda Est: They’re running out of hospital capacity fast in Europe as well. Even if there’s universal health care, it doesn’t do much good if there are no beds left.
Nutmeg again
@Gin & Tonic: I really miss the annual family going-to- Filene’s Basement, though. My brother transplanted to CA, so he really insisted–needed! — to go ‘down the Basement’. So brave the crowds we did. Alas, the real FB has been gone for a really long time. Still missed. There’s nowhere else worth going, and never really was.
piratedan
for some reason, I would feel a LOT better about this willful stupidity, if it only affected the willfully stupid….
Roger Moore
@gvg:
I find I greatly prefer the kind of mask where the two halves come together at a seam in the middle. If it’s properly sewn, that seam helps to keep the mask from collapsing back onto your face when you inhale. I don’t know; maybe I have an advantage because I have a big nose that provides plenty of space between the mask and my mouth.
jonas
@cokane: The only problem is that this time, even if death rates are lower than they were in NYC in April, say, health care systems in the mostly rural areas where cases are spiking now are far less capable of handling the numbers involved.
JMG
Will go out for food, wine, hardware when needed and pharmacy. Oh, and exercise, walks around my neighborhood, which is pretty deserted from like 10 to 3 and bordering conservation land. No need otherwise. All Christmas shopping I do online and have for years. It’s just the two of us for Thanksgiving, which kind of sucks but we’ve done it before in 2016 when our children were on two different continents at the time. Hope’s still in lockdown in France, so no chance for her to be home for Christmas. On the bright side, the French lockdown appears to be working. Been a dramatic fall in new cases over the last two weeks.
gene108
@Zinsky:
This a millions times over. There are so many procedures that have been deferred or limited in who could receive them that people will surely die as a result.
I wonder how many more people will die, because ICU beds are full of COVID patients?
This is an underreported cost of people’s carelessness and callousness toward this pandemic.
Kent
All those rural hospitals that went bankrupt and closed because red states refused to expand Medicaid in order to own the libs and defy Obama.
Actions always have consequences. Especially mindnumbingly stupid ones. Sometimes the consequences take time to be realized. But they do come.
Yarrow
@Litlebritdifrnt: Maybe the extended family could each donate a small amount to cover most of the cost of hiring movers, if that is allowed. Or, could you maybe go in shifts if that would keep you within rules?
evodevo
@Roger Moore: No, you’re right about the seam…it’s the way my favorite mask is constructed. It stays out away from my mouth and is very comfortable…
gvg
@Roger Moore: The traditional Black Friday shopping was cancelled months ago. Retailers are actually closing for Thanksgiving too. What the stores decided to do was do many many smaller online sales weekly. They actually started awhile ago. Walmart is in their SECOND “black friday” round of sales. Belks, amazon, Best Buy etc are already doing sales. Its all online this year. Harder to keep track of IMO and my family has not cooperated with my request for early Christmas lists. We usually exchange wish lists at Thanksgiving and all the adults are pokey anyway. The stores do not want super spreaders. They looked at the buying changes months ago.
They were already thinking Black Friday wasn’t working as well anymore due to e commerce.
GeriUpNorth
@Kent: Right, and even if those rural areas still have a hospital, it probably doesn’t have the capability to handle severe Covid cases. My tiny hometown still has a hospital, but anyone with a serious condition is airlifted to the bigger town 100 miles away. They haven’t even had babies born there for over 20 years now.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@trollhattan:
To start, I don’t wish death on anyone. I wish deprogramming for the cultists. That being said, for every 100 Trumpers who get COVID:
* 50 will have no symptoms
* 40 will have mild to moderate symptoms
* 10 will be hospitalized
Of those who are hospitalized:
* 1 will die
* 8 will have ongoing symptoms that last a month or more
* 1 will recover quickly
gvg
@Roger Moore: I had that kind. It didn’t help for me. I do have a small nose and sinus issues. Few people complained so I am guessing I’m just more sensitive.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@GeriUpNorth: Until the bigger town’s hospital has hit capacity. Some of our local hospitals have started turning down transfers from the irresponsible rural areas. They’ve run out of room.
Baud
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
Is the death rate down to 1% now?
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Baud: It has been for a while.
GoBlueInOak
@Kent: And then those patients will get shipped to blue areas where we followed the rules, because blue voters are always stuck bailing out the stupidity of red voters.
I thought elections were supposed to have consequences?
Baud
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
Thanks. I knew we were doing better with treatments but I have checked the stats recently.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
I should add, mild to moderate COVID can suck badly. I know someone who never needed to be hospitalized, but she had serious shortness of breath when even puttering around her house. It lasted for nearly a month.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Not for long, with hospitals filling up.
patrick II
To state in a different way what many of you are saying, right now the mortality rate from COVID is about 0.7, but that rate will go higher as hospital beds become unavailable. So if the new COVID infection rate doubles every few weeks (as it seems to be now) the death rate (assuming the same age population) will more than double two weeks later. I can’t tell you by how much more, but we will find out.
Sure Lurkalot
@evodevo: The zip tie mask I make riffs off the middle seam pattern. In fact, the technique I use inserts the zip tie into the middle seam. There’s a horizontal zip tie as well. The curve of the middle seam is steeper so the mask ends up looking like an N95. If anyone wants to contact me about making one for those whose skin gets irritated, a front pager can share my email.
David Anderson
@Baud: If we lag deaths for 3 weeks, death rates hover around 1.5% to 1.7% assuming that there is adequate hospital capacity available.
The combination of clinical learning (proning, anti-clotting protocols etc), old drugs being repurposed (dex), new drugs (monoclonal antibodies) and common protocols has reduced death rates from March to November.
However all of that is predicated on adequate hospital space, stuff and staff being available. If any of those things break, the system breaks.
cain
It’s funny how we have to pick up the slack for the red states – while they abuse us. I have no idea why we have this abusive relationship. They don’t have an ounce of gratefulness for putting them before ourselves.
Steve in the ATL
@Kent: seemingly random question: do you know any competitive Scrabble players in the Portland area?
Mary G
@gvg: These silicone mask brackets have been a lifesaver for me.
taumaturgo
In the coming months, a lot of folks will be facing death, and if they physically survive chances are they’ll be financially wiped out. Only in America!
KenK
My wife and I are doing a Thanksgiving duet this year. Normally, we gather with her sister and her family (10 people) – not this year. If things go reasonably well, maybe next month (Christmas). We’ll see.
Kent
Nope. No idea. My worlds are science education, dinghy sailing, soccer coaching, and Latin American affairs. And mostly on the WA side of the river. Beyond that I don’t really know anyone.
ArchTeryx
Thanksgiving is going to be weird for us this year, in that not a lot actually will change.
My best friend, whom I live with, and I usually go up to see his mother during Thanksgiving and we’re likely to do that again this year. VT and NYS are so far not showing huge case increases, and most of us were tested. NYS isn’t barring travel to VT yet either. For the larger Thanksgiving, the folks that usually show up and hang around the house get care packages they receive outside in a mask.
And all of this may change in a heartbeat if NYS quarantines the border with VT or vice versa, or ANYONE tests positive or develops symptoms. My friend has a 91-year old grandmother and his mother is in his 70s, and both are very well aware of the risk. The slightest thing gets hinky and we abort the launch. We’re taking it day by day.
chopper
@Percysowner:
i’m having a few windows replaced in early december. luckily it’s only 2 and they’re next to each other but man…
Kent
No, not only in America. But perhaps more so in America of the comparably rich countries.
Kristine
@Roger Moore: I actually like the collapsing–it indicates I have a good seal according to my recollections of past dayjob PPE training.
indycat32
my local fitness center is in a huge building with high ceilings. Masks are required, 25% capacity by city mandate; clients are to use a spray bottle of disinfectant before/after using a machine. Every other machine unavailable. There have never been more than 10-12 people there when I go. Question: Is it safe?
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
I should add that of those who are hospitalized and have ongoing symptoms, we don’t have an upper limit for how long they last yet. Some have symptoms for a bit over a month, some have been basically disabled for more than 8 months now.
Even those who don’t have any symptoms may have heart or lung damage. The long term impact is still unknown.
Dorothy A. Winsor
I assure you you’re wrong about the ICUs. My hairdresser told me the hospitals weren’t nearly as full as people said. It was all people making money. /
Roger Moore
@cmorenc:
Our problem is the Republican party is serving as a fifth column for the virus.
Steve in the ATL
@Kent: ok thanks. My world doesn’t include Scrabble, competitive or otherwise, or Portland for the most part, but thought I’d ask just in case. Long story. Well, not long, but certainly not interesting.
Yarrow
@indycat32: It will mostly depend on ventilation. Are doors open regularly? Is it a new building or is the ventilation system new? We understand now that the virus spreads largely through airborne transmission and being indoors with poor ventilation and close together are the highest risk settings. Add no masks and people breathing hard while running on treadmills so that the virus spreads further, risk increases considerably. Do people have to wear masks while on machines? It’s hard to run with a mask on.
Personally I say indoor settings are not safe. I haven’t been to the gym since late February.
chopper
@indycat32:
not really. gyms are still bad news.
Roger Moore
@cokane:
Yes, we know more about treating COVID than we did in March and April, but I’m suspicious that a lot of the high CFR back in the first wave was that the hospitals in the hardest-hit places were overwhelmed. We’re headed in that direction again, so there’s a serious risk we will see a lot of people die because they can’t get those improved treatment options.
danielx
If it wasn’t for those who they’d infect in the process, I’d be all in favor of the maskless contracting ‘Rona as soon as possible, hopefully removing themselves from the gene pool to the long term benefit of the human race.
trollhattan
@Yarrow:
I suspect the challenge is big and to your point, depends a lot on the HVAC design, which as a client you have no way of knowing.
I’d pass.
Hoodie
@indycat32: Wrong question. “Is it worth it?” No, especially if you’re in a state with a high level of community spread — I believe Indiana is particularly bad right now. Those kind of benefit/risk assessments can make sense when Rt is much less than 1, but for gyms that’s even questionable. Take a walk.
indycat32
@Yarrow: building is not new, but it was completely remodeled when it went from grocery store to fitness center. doors are not open, and people are not required to wear a mask when on the machines. So, I guess I’m doing online only exercise for the foreseeable future. Thanks for the response
ETA: and thanks to everyone else who responded. Hoodie – right, I asked the wrong question. It’s not worth it.
taumaturgo
@Kent: Kent, most developed countries offer a version of universal healthcare mitigating if not eliminating the fear of bankruptcy. This is an area America can claim to be exceptional.
Yarrow
@indycat32: That has been my choice but I miss the gym. I understand it’s a hard call. See the morning Covid thread for a discussion about how nasal transmission – both transmitting the virus and getting it – is the main vector. If masks are required, have a look at how many people are actually wearing them correctly. If they’re not covering their noses it’s very high risk.
patrick Il
@Mary G: just bought some.. thank you.
danielx
@Yarrow:
Agreed. Oddly enough, one of the safest indoor space types is an indoor firing range. Ventilation is designed for constant replacement of inside air with outside air, in the interest of removing smoke, particles, solvent fumes, etc etc. Firing lanes are (usually) separated by walls so you.re not exchanging breath with someone next to you.
Mind you, I wouldn’t visit an indoor range right now if provided with free ammunition. Which is a big deal, as it’s basically unobtanium at the moment.
Feathers
@gvg: There was a sign outside the Target yesterday with “We are out of:” I was worried it was toilet paper and other such things. It was all electronics and game systems from the Black Friday flier.
@cain: Same dynamics as an abusive family. Scapegoat and ostracize the functional members as a method of denying your own awfulness and responsibility for the situation.
@Nutmeg again: Once something becomes a holiday thing, it mutates to all the holidays. My mom made a butter beehive for something (a baptism celebration, I think). Now every holiday has a butter beehive. Wouldn’t be the same without it. The felt turkey head that turns a pineapple into a turkey shows up throughout the year, too. Mainly because it is an excuse to buy and eat fresh pineapple, which is usually seen as too much “work.” But not wasting a party decoration puts it in a different category, apparently. Also, it was bought at a pre-school Xmas sale and the then pre-schoolers now have kids in college.
Kent
My point was that people around the planet are slipping into poverty and despair due to this pandemic, mostly not due to medical bills, but due to the economy being turned upside down and millions of small businesses no longer being viable in a pandemic. We have some issues that make it especially bad here no doubt. But no place is immune.
gvg
@Mary G: saved to look at after work. thanks
Feathers
@indycat32: There’s a gym down the road built in what was an auto repair shop. They never got rid of the full garage doors on the front (and some across the back). They have full cross ventilation, so I do see people working out there. I’m wondering how it will go as the winter bears down.
Kent
Covid risk seems to be proportional to both proximity within closed spaces and duration of exposure. So any gym where you are working out for 30-60 min or more is going to be riskier than say a grocery where you might linger only a matter of seconds in any one part of the store near any one person.
My daughter is still attending her Barre-3 classes but they are now doing all their workouts outdoors in the parking lot where they have tents and mats set up. So that seems better and safer.
Elizabelle
@Mary G: Thank you for the recommendation. Ordered a pack.
Might have to send some to my sister for her family, too.
It’s been aggravating to have my glasses fog up with the cloth masks; maybe these will help.
catclub
The only nursing home experience I know of is one in Rochester NY.
They were very good for the start and all the way up to about two weeks ago. Now there are infections in staff and patients, and oddly, they say the patient infections are asymptomatic.
[This is all in contrast to the various nursing homes that had terrible infection and death rates early in the pandemic.]
But it is also the wrong trend.
Yarrow
@Kent:
Definitely true. There was some study that came out a few weeks ago talking about cumulative exposure. Probably more of an issue for people who work in hospitals but it showed that a minute here and a minute there of exposure to contagious people added up and once someone gets to X amount of time of exposure they were at higher risk for contracting it.
Patricia Kayden
narya
@indycat32: I’ve been building my own at-home workouts (plus the early-morning run), using the FYNYT workout guides–they have some decent strength-building and muscle-building guides, along with two 7-minute workouts–and Nerd Fitness free stuff. I’ve also done enough Pilates and yoga that I can put that together as well (those 7 years of private sessions are now paying off, and I will start up again over face time with my instructor in January). If you’ve been going to a gym a lot, you probably already know a ton of stuff; the resources I just listed I’ve just been using to help me compile into reasonable routines. And if you already know all of this, apologies!
laura
@Roger Moore: check out Air Queen nano mask if you’re so inclined. It’s got that design a good tight fit, it doesnt glom onto your face, it’s so easy to breathe in – you can almost forget it is on, it can be disinfected by spraying iso alcohol up to 10 times – it’s also a good template for making cloth masks. I really, really like them and splurged to get enough to have a supply and share with other. Cant say enough good things about this mask.
cckids
@gvg: I’m not sure if someone else has addressed this, but on Etsy you can find a 3-D printed “cage” or “bracket” that you can put into your mask. It holds the fabric away from your face.
Link
calling it a “lipstick protection tool” just slays me. Because THAT’s what we’re concerned about.
WaterGirl
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I would seriously wonder about seeing a hairdresser who doesn’t take COVID seriously. Because if s/he doesn’t take it seriously, they are likely not to be following the safety protocols they need to be following.
Incitatus for Senate
Is there a reason why so few people wear real masks? KN95 masks have been available continuously since the beginning of COVID, these are the kind with ear loops, not the medical ones. They work much better than cloth, only about $2 each and last for a long time. In my area it’s about 85% cloth, 10% paper surgical masks, maybe 5% KN95s. It’s baffled me since the beginning.
raven
We’re are in a bit of a tiff about t-day. We’re usually at the beach by ourselves and that’s been fine but with Bohdi’s situation we’re not going this year. The people at the restaurant up the street (were we eat outside every Friday ) have invited us there and my wife’s family also invited us to go to Asheville for a strict socially distant out door gathering. I really don’t want to drive 8 hours for a dinner and return and I don’t think it’s good for the old dog but I get why she wants to.
trollhattan
@danielx:
There was a firing range in suburban Seattle, Belleview I think, that had the ventilation system installed backward: instead of exhausting the air it was creating a positive-pressure enclosure. Needless to say, that created a rather dire lead-contamination setting that especially affected employees. And lead poisoning is irreversible.
We have one, closed now, that did not filter the exhaust air and contaminated the neighborhood with lead. They’re still figuring out nature and extent of the contamination while the operators continue blaming the adjacent airport.
Icedfire
@Steve in the ATL: I live in Minneapolis, but I’ve actually been in the tournament Scrabble scene for going on 17 years now and I know a number of players in Portland (and many other places).
There’s no way I *can’t* ask for more details here haha
WaterGirl
@indycat32: I was trying to bite my tongue, but I will echo Yarrow.
Also, check out this risk assessment chart. It does not look good for working out in a gym.
danielx
@trollhattan:
Lawsuits blooming like weeds…I have seen lots of subcontractor screwups but how the hell could you install it backwards?
Another Scott
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: Yup.
People need to be reminded that not-being-on-a-vent-in-an-ICU-for-weeks and no-big-deal are not the only choices. Being bedridden-for-days-and-taking-weeks-to-quasi-recover doesn’t have its own category, but it exists and is quite common.
:-(
Cheers,
Scott.
cokane
@jonas: Very good point.
trollhattan
Holy shitballs, the county just updated their COVID dashboard from Friday and we’ve blown way past our mid-summer high for new cases–523 vs. 403. Not Good.
Will caution folks who follow their regional data closely that the recent data are trued frequently because reporting is not uniform and subject to time lags. The highest date total was much lower when first posted four days ago.
FelonyGovt
We’ve been going to plant nurseries for our garden, but now that most of them are selling mostly Christmas trees and poinsettias, there’s no point. We’re going to limit our outings to masked walks and trips to the grocery store. And Los Angeles County seems to be considering a curfew. It’s going to be a rough few months.
trollhattan
@danielx:
IDK but it seems nearly impossible to have screwed something so fundamental as that. Lowest bidder? The owners didn’t act in good faith either, and did a bunch of half-assed cleanup that further contaminated the workers.
Ksmiami
@cain: we should stop underwriting Republican stupidity
Roger Moore
@laura:
I’ve been really pleased with the cloth masks I bought from a local tailor. They fit very well, and I was able to get them to make me a set with cloth ties instead of elastic straps. I have found I greatly prefer the ties to elastics, since I can get the fit just the way I like it. They’re also good looking, since they have a really nice selection of fabrics, and they’re helping to support a local business. I’m strongly considering giving them as Christmas presents.
Steve in the ATL
@Icedfire: maybe a frontpager can give you my email address and we can chat. Found an old home movie of my 3rd birthday party in Chicago. My best friend from those days (!) moved to Portland and, as an adult, got into competitive Scrabble when not selling commercial real estate. I imagine he’s a really smart dude as both his parents were (both lawyers, naturally!), and likely has a large vocabulary of obscure words (which you know is something I appreciate!). Used his mom’s recipe for cooking a lamb leg last week. The oddest thing is that one of his uncles ending up as one of my law school professors in Georgia two decades later. And that guy’s kids got into animal breeding and working in that capacity for the Obama administration.
Yes, my life is weird.
cckids
That’s not the case here in Seattle. I’m scheduled both Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Given people’s behavior over the past few months, I am quite sure there will be crowds.
Per Gov. Inslee’s latest, retail is capped at 25% capacity. The trouble is, our store is 300K sq. feet. That is soooo many people, and all too many will be congregated at the front of the store. I am not looking forward to it.
Steve in the ATL
@cckids:
OMG Hot Topic is my FAVORITE store!!!!!!
Burnspbesq
@Another Scott:
Haven’t heard a peep out of anybody about SxSW 2021. And frankly I don’t expect to. Even crackpot Texas Republicans know that cancelling SxSW saved thousands of lives (although all they will do in public is bitch about the economic impact).
Soprano2
We have our first employee to test positive – his girlfriend was exposed, so he got it too. The crew he worked with are all quarantined, but lucky for me I was never in contact with him except he perhaps spent a few minutes in the building with a mask on. Unfortunately, people are finding out about it through the grapevine rather than from any kind of official notification. It’s so dumb. I’m also hearing rumors that in 3 weeks they’re “going to be shutting everything down again” (we never “shut everything down” here, and we never had lockdowns either, both of these usages make me crazy), but no one can say for sure if it’s going to happen and where they heard it. I’ll be extremely surprised if they do that again, although they might go back to Phase 2 with retail establishments and bars/restaurants at 25% capacity; right now it’s 50% capacity. I guess we’ll see what happens.
Yarrow
@Burnspbesq: SXSW 2021 is happening but it’s all online.
Gin & Tonic
@Steve in the ATL:
Wow. I didn’t know they had moving pictures back then.
Delk
Yesterday around 5 pm, my husband and I took a walk to CVS. It’s about 4 blocks away. It was in the low 30’s and windy and I was wondering if more people will start wearing masks as the temp drops.
Everybody we saw had a mask on. About 1 block from home, 2 guys, early 20’s with no masks on. One was carrying a case of beer and the other had a bottle of wine in each hand. Obviously going to a party. I wanted to whack both of them with my cane.
Another Scott
@Incitatus for Senate: We have some N95 masks from long ago (when I was sanding drywall). I haven’t bothered trying to get more.
KN95 may give a false sense of security.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
BruceFromOhio
@yellowdog: that’s where we are as well. Slowly stocking up on all so even less shopping is needed in Jan/Feb when it’s gonna really suck even worse.
Yarrow
@Delk: On Saturday I went for a walk in the neighborhood. An elderly neighbor who recently lost his wife had a whole bunch of people (looked like family) crowded into his small patio. At least they were outdoors but no masks in sight.
Around the corner walked by two 20’s-ish couples getting out of a truck. They were all carrying six-packs of beer. They were heading toward what sounded like some kind of party. No masks.
gene108
@trollhattan:
How does that screw up get past inspectors? At some point things like HVAC systems usually need to pass inspection for commercial facilities
Burnspbesq
@chopper:
Mine was a casualty of the 24 Hour Fitness bankruptcy, so I’ll be looking for a new one sometime in the dim and distant future.
Icedfire
@Steve in the ATL: That number of random degrees of anything is old hat for me. I’ve got at least two second degree separations from the Obama administration through different Scrabblers myself! It’s one hell of an eclectic community.
Commercial real estate doesn’t ring a particular bell in Portland, but I’m sure he’s a friend of a friend somehow.
VeniceRiley
@laura: CDC on the Air Queen: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/respirators/testing/results/MTT-2020-173.5_International_Toptec_AirQueenNanoMask_TestReport_Redacted-508.pdf
Yarrow
Sweden is shutting things down a lot more.
WaterGirl
@Steve in the ATL: Am I right in I thinking that your email in Balloon Juice isn’t a functional one? Or maybe you just ignored my messages when i wrote to ask if you were okay? (no offense taken)
indycat32
@narya: I have Silver and Fit through medicare. They do daily workouts online, and now offer different fitness levels so I’m back to doing those. I do miss using the elliptical. The weird thing is, I have always hated working out, even though I do it, and now I’m like, what I can’t go to the gym? I must go to the gym!
cckids
@Steve in the ATL: lol, at least 200 Hot Topic stores would fit into Fred Meyers.
Steve in the ATL
@Gin & Tonic: well, there was no sound back then, obviously. I’m only young by Balloon Juice standards!
@Delk:
Ok, I’m EXTREMELY young by Balloon Juice standards!
Steve in the ATL
@WaterGirl: yes, that aol address is fake! Adam and I think Anne Laurie have my real one, as do such mere mortals as SiubhanDuinne, M4, marcopolo, raven, and Elizabelle, to name but a few.
Delk
@Steve in the ATL: 58–but one hip replaced and the other probably has less than a year before it gets replaced. It’s more of a security blanket when I’m out walking. Sometimes the last block or two seems like a marathon.
Chyron HR
@Patricia Kayden:
But but but the restaurant industry told me people don’t emit COVID while they’re chewing.
Sebastian
@Geoboy:
380,000 is the total for all of WW2. We’ll reach that this year
Zzyzx
I do miss being able to use the gym but I haven’t been there since March. At least with them reclosing in WA, I’ll stop getting billed.
LongHairedWeirdo
Everyone can have *horrible* thoughts from time to time. For example, I saw a mention of people who track natural disasters talking about how *horrible* things could become… before semi-guiltily expressing hopes that everyone makes it out alive.
I won’t deny, there was a part of me that thought “if Trump is crippled by Covid-19, it might save untold thousands of lives.” And I won’t deny, there are times I look at the numbers and think “if the hospitals overflow, if it’s clear that mismanagement and profound indifference did this, it might be the sort of thing *needed* for America to realize it’s not dealing with good-faith actors. I’m not sure if anything less will do it.”
I’ve mentioned before, I have Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, and one part of that is, your brain just doesn’t work as well when fatigued. You can’t push away negative thoughts, even ridiculous ones. So I’m not deeply ashamed of myself when I wonder about alternate realities. “Would America end up in a better place if the pandemic becomes undeniably serious, and obviously mishandled? Or would it be better if we lucked out (again)?”
It still really hurts to be able to ask those questions.
Remember, there are three objective facts about Covid-19 that should say “we need to prevent its spread.”
Letting it spread is objectively stupid and evil. Downplaying the risks is objectively stupid and evil. Claiming the people who want a robust, scientific, public health response are “politicizing” the virus is objectively stupid and evil.
And yet, few people will say that, and if people won’t say that, then most people will read the news and hear the stories, and think that people *must* be trying to handle the virus, because if they were being objectively stupid and evil, people would be talking about it.
So we’re in a trap. The objective truth is, one party is willing to let tens of thousands of people die, figuring they can continue to ride out any bad polling, and maybe even get rewarded for being part of the team that let those tens of thousands of people die. And they’re then likely to cripple the pandemic response (they won’t want Biden to succeed where Trump failed) and they’re *extremely* likely to cripple the economic response, just like they did in 2008, so they can again demand to be rewarded with more power in 2022, for the inability of Biden to eliminate the suffering they’ll cause.
narya
@indycat32: I will check that out (in a few years, anyway)! I also hate working out, especially running. But I started running in 2017 because it was a cheaper way to get cardio, and i found a running series that was casual and fun and had beer at the end, and that meant I had to keep doing it so I could do the 5Ks. During this year, they’ve switched to a lot of virtual events, and I can afford to continue to support them–and now run 5 days/week. I still fight it all the way out the door, but I also know that that exercise really helps dissipate the anxiety. Now if i could get my hamstring to behave . . . Do they have a version available to those of us who aren’t quite Medicare-ready?
indycat32
@narya: I’m pretty sure anybody can access their workouts through their youtube channel. But their workouts are geared to old people. They would probably bore you, especially if you run 5 days a week.
Sebastian
@gvg:
Get yourself some high quality vacuum bags, preferably replacement bags for Miele canister vacuums.
That material tested highest.
catclub
I think in Calvin and Hobbes, Calvin finally realizes ‘Using the Transmogrifier is bad news.”
Barry
@Delk:
Borrow a power lift recliner chair. He can sleep in it, and then use it to stand himself up. I’ve had friends use that for both shoulder surgery and abdominal surgery.
catclub
Does someone who runs 5 days a week get bored… ever? ;)
Louise B.
Here in Oregon, the incoming chair of the Clackamas County Board of Commissioners (southeast suburbs of Portland) announced that she is inviting as many people as she can to her Thanksgiving and Christmas celebrations, because the Governor is WRONG!! When quizzed, she blathered on about freedumb and personal responsibility. These people are horrible.
WaterGirl
@Steve in the ATL: Then I guess I can’t help you get hooked up.
Steve in the ATL
@WaterGirl: or you could check your B-J email….
Martin
Not sure if this tool showed up already, but you enter your county and the size of your holiday gathering and it tells you the chance that one of your guests has covid.
With an ascertainment bias of 5, some parts of the country now that a gathering of 10 people will have a 99% chance of including one infected person. With a bias of 10, it’s like most of the midwest.
Ascertainment bias is a way to factor for people with covid or exposed to covid to say ‘whoa, I probably shouldn’t come to your party’. A bias of 5 suggests that most people would back off of an invite, so a better choice for Biden places. 10 suggests not as many would, so probably a better choice for Trumpy places.
What this tells me is that gatherings of 10 is too large given how widespread covid is right now. And the places that have those regulations are the least likely to need them.
Put another way, if you live in the midwest, I wouldn’t go to the grocery store any more. Have your groceries delivered. i would go out for medical appointments and nothing else.
Here in CA, which by comparison to other states right now looks pretty good (compared to this summer looks terrible), assuming that 5x as many people are infected as current test results suggest (which is probably a bit high) there’s an 11% chance that one person at your 10 person event has covid. In Iowa its just over 50%.
raven
@Martin: It’s a Ga Tech app.
Sebastian
@indycat32:
Not worth it at all. If one a symptomatic person can infect an entire choir then someone panting and huffing on a treadmill will do the same.
7 Minute Workout is a great iPhone and Android app for home workouts. Try two sets back to back
tarragon
I stopped going to the gym a few weeks before NY shut them down in March. It’s a local, niche skill, gym and I really like the owners so I kept my membership going.
They’re open now but I’m still not going. I’m still paying because I want them there when I can go back.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@WaterGirl: Oddly, she’s pretty strict about protocols. She works in this building and they enforce masks. And her husband is immune compromised, so she’s worried about him.
Origuy
@Mary G: A lot of people on Etsy have been making the mask brackets with their 3D printers, using various patterns.
Someone on Twitter mentioned that you can get metal strips with adhesive on one side to attach to the mask at the bridge of your nose. I orders some that will come Tuesday. I’ll report back on how well they work.
gvg
@Elizabelle: Somewhere recently I saw a twitter from a doctor that showed putting a bandaid along the top of the mask where the skin and the mask meet, prevents fogging glasses. Essentially taping the top of the mask to your skin above the nose. No moist air can come up onto your glasses through a gap. The doctor posting it, credited his nurses for showing him.
narya
@indycat32: But maybe my parents could use them . . . Thanks!
JPL
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Someone told me last week that she didn’t think masks worked, but wore them anyway. I did point out how states that mandated masks case load dropped dramatically. Even ours dropped as soon as the major stores and supermarkets required them.
Oh and her cousin is sure she had covid and as soon as she took Hydroxychloroquine and antibiotics she got better. She obviously had a bacterial infection, but I said nothing.
JPL
So glad that the adults will take over again in January. How do we stop the fascists from returning.
narya
@catclub: I do–the running itself is boring, though I’m getting better at finding a meditative space, and I don’t run very far/long. And my job is boring, too! But I’ve decided that instead of scrabbling after not-boredom, I need to reframe my thinking.
gwangung
@Another Scott: These are in medical circumstances, with chances of blood being spurted through the air (which is the main reason for the waterproofing on medical masks–forced pressure of virus-laden air and moisture).
Most environments we’re talking about in communities are considerably less stressful. Even at that, there are KN-95 masks that are rated for emergency use in medical situations (95%+ filtration, three+ layers and waterproof).
opiejeanne
@Dorothy A. Winsor: And here I was, thinking that you were quoting something you’d seen somewhere online. I didn’t realize it was someone you knew.
I did see the sarcasm slash.
?BillinGlendaleCA
I’m picking up madame and the kid from LAX this evening. They were on an extended weekend in Puerto Villarta. On the plane they’re wearing N95 masks and face shields. I’m thinking we’ll be all masked for the drive home. Fortunately, it’s warm (90° here in Glendale) so I can keep the car windows open.
opiejeanne
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Geez. Be safe.
gvg
@Sebastian: No, vacuum bags are not approved for making masks. They aren’t made for that and it’s likely they can be harmful due to fibers not being meant to go in lungs. There were articles about that earlier on in the pandemic. Too much is unknown.
Eunicecycle
President-Elect Biden is having a news conference. Covered by MSNBC, CNN, FOX, CNBC.
WaterGirl
@Steve in the ATL: Got it!
Icedfire has your email address, assuming his email was real.
gvg
@Origuy: the nose pieces work fine. I got those awhile ago. The masks I’m sewing, I sew a channel to install them permanently. stuck on with the adhesive, it usually wears out after about 5 washes.
mali muso
Talking about fitness in our brave new world…I got an old school Nintendo Wii set from a friend and have been using it for the Wii Fit games as well as Just Dance and Zumba. Still hard to motivate myself to even do that, but at least it’s something!
Yarrow
2020 isn’t done with us yet. From The Guardian liveblog:
Martin
@raven: It is. GaTech is a treasure.
WaterGirl
@Martin: How would that work for people traveling from out of state?
My niece in Aurora IL is hosting 10 people:
3 – from her household in Aurora (zip is 60503)
2 – college students from MI
1 – essential worker taking the metra train from Chicago
2 – parents from MI
2 – 25-year-olds flying in from CA
Everybody staying overnight at least one night, I believe. Maybe two.
My seat-of-the-pants assessment is holy shit, that’s a terrible idea.
edit: maybe I woke up stupid this morning, but I didn’t see where to even enter a zip code.
The Moar You Know
@Incitatus for Senate: They are not and have not been available here in SoCal at any price. I know the places to get them that most people wouldn’t be aware of. None. I would pay $10 each for one. Maybe more. They are vastly superior; I used them when I worked in a guitar manufacturing facility. Of course, back then they were 25 cents each. I have three left (I still sand and paint instruments, and curse letting myself run low the last two years) which are reserved for the possibility that my wife may be forced back into the classroom.
raven
@Martin: I was shocked when it was announced that UGA is now the 4th largest state school and Tech is 3d!!!!
Raven Onthill
“Well-ventilated gyms—with universal masking (yes, masks with face shields can be worn even while engaging in vigorous physical activity), strict cleaning protocols, and physical distancing—may be able to stay open.” – We Know How to Beat COVID-19. We Just Don’t Do It, Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, Former CDC Director, The Atlantic.
raven
@The Moar You Know: A luthier!
BruceFromOhio
Alexa says, please turn your head and cough.
Martin
@JPL: A lot of us (myself included) got the mask thing wrong early on. Cloth is a bad filter for viruses. Almost everything is a bad filter for viruses.
The goal of the mask mandate is not to keep you, personally, safe. People really need to understand that. The mask mandate is that if everyone wears masks, then the reproduction rate will fall, and in time everyone will be safe because there will be nobody infected. The mask slows the reproduction down enough to work, provided everyone wears it. Individually, it helps, but if you’re 6′ from someone with Covid and you are both masked, there’s still a pretty decent chance you’re going to get it.
Yarrow
@WaterGirl: Unless she’s seating the various individuals and family groups at separate tables, doing the whole thing outside, requiring masks except when actively eating or drinking, and having no one stay in her house, then yes, it’s a terrible, terrible idea. Even with those precautions it’s not a great idea, but if she could do those things it would help lower the risk. Oh, and only one person serving the food/handling utensils. One designated bathroom. Plenty of hand sanitizer. Etc.
Aleta
@WaterGirl: How could one even relax or feel comfortable eating and being together in such a group of travelers?
gvg
@Incitatus for Senate: There have been shortages, and at first many people were unfamiliar with them. Then there have turned out to be many “fakes”. I’m leery of buying something from a company with no history here and an obviously made up name. The last I heard only 3 companies masks had been approved by the FDA. My father bought some from one of those. In testing the so called KN95’s varied widely in how good they were. In fact, they were mostly flyby night companies capitalizing on the reputation of the the real KN companies.
I would say go the fda site and follow links from there.
Nora
And even in New York there are idiots — Republican idiots — like this jerk:
https://usanewssite.com/news/a-nyc-councilman-said-hell-defy-gov-andrew-cuomos-social-distancing-orders-to-host-more-than-10-people-in-his-home-for-thanksgiving/
He acts as if he’s being so cool, telling the governor he’s going to defy the rules. In reality, he’s risking the lives and health of everyone around him. As I said, a Republican.
Martin
@WaterGirl: Holy shit, that is a terrible idea.
Basically just ad-hoc the individual results. I would assume an ascertainment bias of 10 for that because family feel pressured to attend events even if they think it might be a bad idea. So 50%-70% odds from the Aurora group, 35% from the Michigans, 60% from Chicago, 15% from CA.
I’d put it at close to 50%.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: Best estimates I’ve seen are that the true infection fatality rate has probably been about 0.7% ever since the spring, and it might be lower now. But that’s including the people who get infected and never even realize it happened.
The case fatality rate averaged across the whole US over the past month is just under 1%, but that’s probably being pushed down artificially by the case rate rising rapidly now, because people take time to die.
I do think we’re catching a much higher fraction of infections than before in most of the country–though in the places where it’s really raging, like the Dakotas, testing is completely overwhelmed and they’re getting these huge positivity rates.
Another Scott
@Origuy: I looked into the adhesive metal strips for a while, but got put off by all of the reviews saying that the metal was too thin. I also worried that it wouldn’t work well for 3 layers (only sticking to the outer layer).
I ended up getting a roll of this aluminum copper wire for use in the 3-layer cloth masks I got at Etsy. I make a small cut (just bigger than the wire diameter) in the outer layer (about an inch from the outer edge of the mask, near the top seam), threaded the wire inside, bent it to match my nose and cheeks, and cut off the excess (leaving an inch or so for easy removal and reinstallation). It works pretty well. The wire is very easy to bend but also holds its shape very well.
Cheers,
Scott.
gvg
@Martin: cloth works fine if it’s the right cloth. Sometimes better than N 95’s. It has to be cotton and testing says 600-800 thread count. the fuzzy fibers of the cotton is probably why. The cotton needs to be woven, not knit (no t shirts or jersey), because knit stretches and the “holes” get bigger. the smooth fibers of man made polyester is almost useless. A middle layer of non woven interfacing improves it. 3 layers at least.
A tight fit is required. Wearing it loosely defeats the purpose, and I see a lot of that.
Most masks are made of the wrong kind of cloth. They still help some.
Martin
@The Moar You Know: From what I can tell CA has done a good job of ensuring that the N95s get to people who are working. I can’t speak specifically to your wife’s school, but we have a healthy supply of N95s at work with very strict rules about not taking them for personal use.
Put another way, we have enough supply for the people who need them to do their job, and everyone else should stay the fuck home, which is why you pretty much can’t buy one. From what I’m hearing anecdotally, it sounds like the state has been steadily choking off the market supply and steering it to schools, prisons, grocery stores, police, hospitals of course, etc.
Yarrow
@Martin:
Depends how long you are near them. A minute in a grocery store probably isn’t enough to get infected; 15 minutes helping someone in a hospital likely would. Also depends on the setting. Indoors with poor ventilation or outside with a breeze?
Martin
@gvg: They still help, but my point is that there is no ‘this will prevent you from getting covid’ short of a respirator setup.
I hear a lot of people saying ‘my friend wore a mask and still got sick’. Well, yeah, someone’s gonna lose the stochastic lottery. That doesn’t mean they don’t help.
Some people seem to have this notion that everything short of a guarantee is pointless. And some people seem to have this notion that the only person that need not get sick is themself.
mikefromArlington
Nothing less than genocide
Barbara
@mali muso: It’s interesting to read the approaches to fitness. My fitness studio has been closed since March, and although it took them a little bit of time, they have had a full schedule of live Zoom classes since early April. I do one or even two a day. It’s been a real plus during this time, because it’s mostly the same teachers and the same format, so there is some continuity from pre-Covid life. They have also started doing some personal interest forums and book club activities. I give them a lot of credit for their perseverance.
Yarrow
@Martin: The other thing about wearing a mask is that it is clear now that being exposed to less virus can mean your case of Covid is less bad. Not wearing a mask increases the chances of your case being worse.
Martin
@Yarrow: Right, but the other side of contagion prevention is reducing the chance you’ll come in contact with someone who is infected – that’s testing, reducing gathering size, stay at home, etc.
Bottom line on all of this:
IF CASES ARE RISING IN YOUR AREA, WHICH IS EVERYWHERE IN THE US, YOU NEED TO DO MORE, AND YOU NEED TO DO IT NOW.
Yes, there are assholes out there, if you can change them, great, but if not, then you need to compensate for them and be as small a transmission vector as you can possibly manage – right now. Wearing a mask and going to the grocery store is not the smallest vector you can be. You can do more. Dig deep. Now’s the time.
Barbara
@WaterGirl: You know how I would score it? Take the person from the riskiest location — that’s the risk you should assume.
Martin
@Yarrow: True, but in the meantime you become an infection vector and potentially kill other people. That’s not acceptable right now.
Your goal can’t be ‘I will get less sick’.
Your goal needs to be ‘I won’t kill other people’. That’s where we are now. In large parts of the US, going to the grocery store well masked will kill other people. Most of the midwest should close all stores now, curbside pickup or drop-off delivery only. No restaurant dining, even outside. Close schools. Close everything, basically.
Dan B
@WaterGirl: The tragic thing is if these people did not gather together for ten months there would likely be a vaccine. There is light at the end of the tunnel but for them it may be the train.
Martin
@Barbara: That’s even better. Thank you for suggesting it.
geg6
@Martin:
Cool. So, based on this tool, if we were having 10 people to Thanksgiving, we would have a 10% chance. But we’re only going to be 4, so I am feeling okay about that, especially as all of us are being very careful.
narya
@gvg: I was doing the Buff gaiter, doubled up, for runs; lately i’ve added a layer of paper towel between the two layers. That’s for the morning run, and I rarely see anyone for longer than a couple of seconds. For shopping, originally I was doing a medical mask topped by the gaiter, to help close up the sides and hold everything in place. Now, though, I have an N95 (leftover from an old paint removal process), and, since I’m only wearing it for an hour or so at a time, and rarely more than once/week, I’ve just been re-using and airing it out between uses. I have a second one as a stash. And I have some basic two-layer cloth masks that I use to go downstairs to pick up the mail or do laundry; I rarely even see other folks then. Here’s hoping all of this is enough; I’m also planning on staying home for the next month at least.
gvg
@Martin: That is true. I think of it as a help when I go do what I have to do which has been almost nothing except at home and at work with a close office door and my own hepa filter. I wish they would let me work at home still. I have been doing deliveries and curbside for almost everything for months.
WaterGirl
@Aleta: I am absolutely horrified at the idea. I am also the only person who is NOT going.
Gin & Tonic
Is Biden going to hit 80 million? How’s the CA count going?
The Moar You Know
@raven: Yes sir. Five years under the mast for one of the best acoustic builders in the world, just about three thousand instruments under my belt, still do a couple of side projects per year. I will never let myself run out of VOC filters or 95/100 dust filters again. My VOC filters have all gone bad at this point, which is fine as I finished all my projects for this year.
WaterGirl
@Martin: 50% likelihood that at least one person has COVID and is contagious? Or 50% likelihood that that someone or everyone will end up with it?
Aleta
@WaterGirl: I remember and am very glad of that!
Roger Moore
@Martin:
This is the core of the Swiss cheese model. Each individual slice may have holes in it, but if you stack up enough of them you can make something that blocks things pretty well. Similarly, wearing masks is not a panacea, but if you combine it with testing, tracing, minimizing social activities, etc. you can get the effective reproduction rate low enough to stop the virus.
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@Martin:
That’s never going to happen, though. And I seriously doubt curbside pickup/drop-off delivery will be able to serve all customers in a timely manner. Universal mask wearing at essential places like grocery stores is enough along with staying home as much as possible.
As for restaurants, I saw a front page article in the Plain Dealer a few days ago about DeWine’s announcement that restaurants might have to be closed again. A lot of resturant owners in Ohio feel that much of the spread at the moment is due to people getting together at home gatherings, not restaurants where protocols are being adheared to
Personally, I think it’s true that’s where most of the current numbers are coming from (private gatherings), but restaurants are such an obvious source imo. You have to take off your mask to eat/drink
WaterGirl
@Yarrow: What the CDC is saying now is that it’s 15 minutes of exposure over a 24-hour period. So if you’re standing in line for 5 minutes at the store near someone who is contagious, and 3 minutes talking to your neighbor who is contagious, and 7 minutes in costco with someone who might be contagious, eve if it’s the next day, 20 hours later, you’re at the 15 minute mark. That’s all it takes.
The Moar You Know
@Martin: Sadly, the state doesn’t have that much to do with individual K-12 school districts. My wife teaches in one of the richest districts in CA and they have no N95s whatsoever and are not planning on getting any. They bought the cheapest cloth masks they could find. Teachers get one. To be washed weekly (I shit you not, those are the instructions she’s been given).
I am outraged and the teachers, the ones smart enough to know what the deal is, are outraged.
Our local elementary district that my neighbor works for, they got nothing at all. Told to buy it all themselves or go without.
Roger Moore
@Gin & Tonic:
According to the Secretary of State, there are a bit over 600K ballots left to count, not including any stragglers that were postmarked by election day but still haven’t arrived.
raven
@The Moar You Know: Have I ever told you about the 1861 Purdey Muzzle Loader I have? The stock was broken and a friend of mine who repairs guitars fixed it! I don’t think I’d ever shoot it but he did a fine job on it.
joel hanes
@gvg:
For those bothered by cotton masks or clingy masks, the Airqueen meltblown masks can be a big relief. They stand away from the face, pass air easily.
A bit pricey, though; just under $3 apiece, shipped.
I’ve been sending them to family.
Yarrow
@Martin: Okay, I feel like you’re yelling at me and you have no idea what I do and how careful I am. I was the most careful of anyone I knew across the country from the very beginning and nothing has changed. People laughed at me and continue to laugh at me for my risk aversion. I go nowhere except essential trips. I did not change that in the summer when things opened up so I can’t change it now that things are closing. Your yelling at me is not helping.
@WaterGirl: Yes, as I wrote in this comment. Also, if you’re in Costco, people will be wearing masks, which helps to a certain extent. Costco was one of the first stores to mandate them.
WaterGirl
@Yarrow: It feels like Martin is yelling at you, but I don’t think that’s his intent.
Sometimes we reply to a comment with information that isn’t just for the person we are replying to. Just as I did, I suspect Martin was trying to be clear with everyone that things have changed for the worse and we all need to be adjusting our thinking ASAP.
Yarrow
@WaterGirl: His yelling at anyone is counterproductive. People just dig in their heels. In this particular case he’s yelling at someone on his side. I do not appreciate it and it if I were less careful than I am it certainly wouldn’t sway me to be more careful.
J R in WV
@Raoul Paste:
Actually, all the RWNJs will self-isolate from the vaccine line. They don’t believe in vaccines any more than they do in the Covid-19 virus in the first place.
The real problem will be trying to
forceconvince them to take the shots when their time comes! Perhaps most of them will die before their turn comes? That would be easiest…Chacal Charles Calthrop
@catclub: oh yeah
satby
@Steve in the ATL: man, I feel so left out.
LongHairedWeirdo
@Martin: All the research I’ve seen shows some protection for the mask wearer. You’re right that it’s asymmetrical – the protection for others is far more than the protection from you.
The thing that needs to be understood is, while the Covid-19 virus *can* spread in aerosol form, it mostly spreads in droplets. For these, masks are good protection. If it was spreading in purely aerosol form, cloth masks probably wouldn’t help much, but it doesn’t, and that’s the key reason why masks work, and work well.
If there is enough virus in the environment, it’s clear that it can be detected in aerosol form, but we don’t know if that aerosol form spreads like single virus particles, or, e..g, the virus hitching a ride on a dust mote – the former won’t be stopped by anything less than an N95 class mask, the latter might still be stopped by cloth.
You’re not wrong in saying that there’s still a “pretty decent chance” of getting infected from a 6′ exposure to someone who’s infected and masked, but it’s a much lower chance than if either of you weren’t masked; and there’s some suggestions that the mask might cause the infection to be less severe (since Covid-19 seems it might have some dose-dependence regarding severity).
WaterGirl
@Barbara: That’s a good thought!
Sebastian
@Incitatus for Senate:
Available on Amazon, $18 for ten
KN95 Mask-10PC, White https://www.amazon.com/dp/B086R883Q8
I have them and ordered more
Steeplejack
@Sebastian:
Thanks for the specific link. Always helpful.
gwangung
@Incitatus for Senate: Also, bonafidemasks.com….US distributor for Powecom masks (CDC certified).