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You are here: Home / Anderson On Health Insurance / 218-51/60-1-5

218-51/60-1-5

by David Anderson|  January 15, 20214:02 pm| 128 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance, Open Threads, Politics

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Just a reminder.

The minimum winning coalition for long term legislative change in the United States is:

  • 218 votes in the House
  • 51 or 60 votes in the Senate depending on what rule set a bill is being advanced under
  • 1 signature at the White House
  • 5 votes on the Supreme Court.

218-51-1-5 is the minimum coalition that can pass and sustain legislative change in the United States.

These are the realities that define possibility spaces.  Democrats will have significant power in ten days.  There will be a liberal friendly signer in the White House.  There will be liberals controlling both the Senate and House floor calendars.  These are real powers.  However the power of a majority is partially a function of how many votes a faction can afford to lose.  In 2009, Senator Majority Leader Reid had no spare votes in his back pocket.  In 2021, Senate Majority Leader Schumer would also have no spare votes in his back pocket.  His working majority is contingent on perfect health of both his caucus and no travel disruptions.  In 2009, Speaker Pelosi could afford to lose dozens of votes.  In 2021, she can afford to lose four or five votes.

5 is going to be the biggest challenge compared to 2009-2019.

Keep 218-51-1-5 in mind on what is actually possible.

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Reader Interactions

128Comments

  1. 1.

    Baud

    January 15, 2021 at 4:21 pm

    It’s a travesty that Balloon Juice isn’t part of the process in some way.

  2. 2.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 4:24 pm

    I think it’s insane to think anything substantial has changed legislatively just because we deposed President Shitbag. Best to keep expectations low.

  3. 3.

    Kent

    January 15, 2021 at 4:25 pm

    As a former Fed involved with both writing legislation (I worked on 3 separate fisheries and marine mammal protection statutes) and endless work writing implementing regulations, I would also make the following point:

    The Federal government and executive branch already have tremendous statutory and regulatory power that has simply been allowed to atrophy, or has been deliberately and maliciously vandalized. There are enormous swaths of progressive outcomes that can be achieved by simply dusting off and using the executive power that already exists. Not every problem requires a spanking new law from Congress to address.

    Think of the Executive Branch as a a very ornate old mansion with all kinds of gables and annexes and such. The kitchen might still have avocado colored appliances, formica countertops, and linoleum floors. And you might wish for a complete remodel with lots of new stainless appliances and granite and center islands and such. But with the right chefs, the old girl can still cook up a storm, even if it is on a 1970s avocado colored electric range with beat up old cookware.

    What the Trump Administration has done for the past 4 years is put drunken malicious frat boys into every room in the house, and they have been busy spraying graffiti everywhere, ripping up the carpets, taking shits in the corner and smearing it on the walls, and every other malicious thing they can think of. But the old girl still has good bones. And with a lot of elbow grease and hard work, the Biden folks can bring her back to life and back to effective operation without having to go to Congress to ask for a brand new wing be added on.  That is why it is crucial for Biden to bring in experienced hands who can hit the ground running and know how to use the tools that already exist.

    Obama had a GOP congress for the last 6 of his 8 years in office but still did a lot of good. They were not bad years. Progress was made. Just because we don’t have 218/60/1/5 doesn’t mean the Biden Administration can’t make tremendous progress in nearly every area of policy with the tools it already has at its disposal.

  4. 4.

    JPL

    January 15, 2021 at 4:27 pm

    OT Important announcement about Major’s Indoguration. Sunday Major’s temporary home is having a celebration for him, since he is the first shelter dog in the White house. For ten dollars, you are your pets can celebrate with him. https://delawarehumane.org/event/major-bidens-indoguration-party/

  5. 5.

    Haroldo

    January 15, 2021 at 4:29 pm

    Thanks for this.  All discussions about what is possible legislatively have to start with this in mind.

  6. 6.

    dmsilev

    January 15, 2021 at 4:29 pm

    But I want my pony!

  7. 7.

    gvg

    January 15, 2021 at 4:32 pm

    I believe we have at least 3 currently down with covid positive tests one in the hospital. 2 not sworn in yet. Democrats are said to be allowing some kind of proxy voting though because of the virus the the GOP wasn’t until the certification…so I am not sure how that changes things going forward, perhaps permanently in the modern age,

  8. 8.

    terraformer

    January 15, 2021 at 4:33 pm

    @Kent:

    Damn, well done.

  9. 9.

    Roger Moore

    January 15, 2021 at 4:38 pm

    One thing the Democrats should definitely be doing behind the scenes is trying to pry any persuadable Republican out of their caucus.  I don’t know what the chances of success are, but life would definitely be easier with an extra vote in the Senate or a couple of extra votes in the House.

  10. 10.

    Kent

    January 15, 2021 at 4:39 pm

    To expand on my previous point above.  Even if we did have 218/60/1/5 there is only so much watershed legislation that one Congress can do.  Two or maybe three major pieces of legislation are about all that is reasonable to expect even when we hold all the levers of power:  Immigration, Criminal Justice Reform, Health Care, Taxes, Climate Change, Transportation, Education.  Pick your top two because that is realistically all you are going to get.

    It doesn’t mean you don’t make progress in all those other areas.  Obama did (DACA, Clean Power Plan, Paris Accord, etc.)  It just means that a lot of the work of the Biden Administration, even under the best of circumstances, is going to largely involve using the tools that already exist

    Trump only passed one major piece of legislation in his 4 years, the 2017 tax cuts.  Everything else from the Wall to children in cages to tariffs around the world to reversing every environmental and business regulation was all done through executive power.

  11. 11.

    Robby-D

    January 15, 2021 at 4:39 pm

    With 218/51/1 can’t they change that final “5?”

    Let’s start reform with un-stacking the SCOTUS

  12. 12.

    Matt McIrvin

    January 15, 2021 at 4:39 pm

    @Kent:

    and they have been busy spraying graffiti everywhere, ripping up the carpets, taking shits in the corner and smearing it on the walls

    literally, as it turns out.

  13. 13.

    wvng

    January 15, 2021 at 4:41 pm

    I would say more like 218-60-1-5 until we have a majority willing to end the filibuster, which we do NOT have right now. Without that, we know how a republican minority obstructs, because we saw them do it in the Obama years.  We also know from the Obama years that the mathematical truth that Dems can only get a Senate majority by running conservatives in red states, and winning seats, which gives those conservatives enormous power to limit what can be done. I vividly remember Senator Nelson (D-NE) going on Maddow’s show in 2009 saying he would not support a stimulus larger than $800 billion. She pressed him on why he was set on that number, and he basically said “just because.”  She kept pressing, he got huffy, and never returned to her show.  But he had that leverage.

     

    But thanks for this. I got a lot of crap for saying something similar on Facebook last week (no magical wish ponies).

  14. 14.

    Matt McIrvin

    January 15, 2021 at 4:42 pm

    @Robby-D: Probably not. That requires actual legislation, which would require lifting the filibuster, which would require getting past Manchin and maybe a couple of other stubborn Democrats who are still into it.

  15. 15.

    Martin

    January 15, 2021 at 4:45 pm

    @Just Some Fuckhead: I think an attempted insurrection does change the calculus. I think it makes the filibuster more likely to go, and I think it was a wake-up call to a lot of judges and legislators what the stakes are.

    We’ve moved from ‘this vote will hurt me in the primary’ to ‘this vote may get me killed’.

    The whole point of the filibuster was rationalized in recent generations as a collegial tool to further debate. That completely went away under McConnell, and when your colleague is conspiring to have you killed, it’s really hard to justify keeping it at all.

  16. 16.

    Kent

    January 15, 2021 at 4:46 pm

    @Matt McIrvin:@Robby-D: Probably not. That requires actual legislation, which would require lifting the filibuster, which would require getting past Manchin and maybe a couple of other stubborn Democrats who are still into it.

    I think that expanding the court would require a watershed overreach moment by the existing SCOTUS that will clarify the issue for the public.  Like overturning the ACA, or overturning Medicare or Social Security or some such.  That would affect the lives of tens or hundreds of millions.  And I think they are smart enough to know what the limit is and not step over it.

  17. 17.

    Another Scott

    January 15, 2021 at 4:49 pm

    An excellent reminder.

    Another number to keep in mind, or couple of numbers, is the number of legislative days in the House and Senate before the 2022 mid-terms.  The Democratic majorities must have tangible legislative accomplishments to point to and to be able to campaign hard on.

    They have the majorities.  They must use it and make good things happen.  Because we know they will be blamed…

    The clock starts ticking in about 5 days (when Warnock and Ossoff are due to be sworn in).

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  18. 18.

    different-church-lady

    January 15, 2021 at 4:51 pm

    I REJECT YOUR MATH AND SUBSTITUTE A BULLY PULPIT OF MY OWN!!1!

    /very-online-leftist

  19. 19.

    Walker

    January 15, 2021 at 4:51 pm

    @Another Scott:

    Correct. A lot of people are speaking about 2022 like the loss of the House is a given.

  20. 20.

    Cheryl Rofer

    January 15, 2021 at 4:52 pm

    There’s always the possibility of ejecting members of Congress who conspired with the insurrectionists. Not something to hang one’s hat on, but to keep in mind. The conspirators, of course, are Republican.

    There would be a partisan stink from the Republicans that Democrats are doing this to tilt the votes, and yeah it would do that.

  21. 21.

    citizen dave (aka mad citizen)

    January 15, 2021 at 4:52 pm

    I’ll throw in the Senate wrinkle of, at any given time, is Grassley sentient and able to vote; is Feinstein sentient and able to vote; etc.

    On climate change, yes the transportation sector may need electrifying, but a lot of that is happening because markets.  10X that reason for electricity generation–markets markets markets–solar solar solar–storage storage storage—wind wind wind.  I know they’ll have to pay heavy lip service to it, but markets, corporate goals and behavior, and the people are way out in front of the federal government on climate change.  Maybe do some high speed rails; spur on electric planes.

    Coming up on 4 days and 19 hours even.  https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/to?p0=263&iso=20210120T12&msg=Time%20left%20until%20Trump%20leaves%20office

  22. 22.

    Martin

    January 15, 2021 at 4:53 pm

    Good christ what have we become. MyPillow guy is at WH with notes. Reporter got a photograph of them. Looks like a suggestion to use the insurrection to declare martial law, blame the whole thing on either China or Iran, and install more loyalists ad stay in power.

    Why this asshole is allowed at the WH at this point is beyond me. But arrest him on sedition charges as well.

  23. 23.

    Steeplejack (phone)

    January 15, 2021 at 4:53 pm

    @Just Some Fuckhead:

    Someone on Twitter pointed out today that the GOP shaved Pelosi’s majority in the House, held several Senate seats they were expected to lose and didn’t lose any statehouses (so they will be overseeing redistricting). We’re going to have to wait awhile for this whole “Repubs in disarray” thing to pan out.

    Not to say we shouldn’t push our agenda hard, but the battle is just beginning.

  24. 24.

    Martin

    January 15, 2021 at 4:54 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: They won’t be expelled, but I bet some will be indicted and have to resign.

  25. 25.

    Mai Naem mobile

    January 15, 2021 at 4:54 pm

    Completely OT. DJT library website. There’s a good webmaster doing this.

    https://djtrumplibrary.com/

  26. 26.

    CaseyL

    January 15, 2021 at 4:55 pm

    Let’s get to and past the inauguration first.  The MyPillowGuy is meeting with T* and arguing for martial law – which normally wouldn’t make me nervous because MPG is a joke.

    But we have military in place all over the Capitol right now, and I’d like to be sure their affiliations and loyalties were checked before they were deployed.

  27. 27.

    citizen dave (aka mad citizen)

    January 15, 2021 at 4:55 pm

    @Martin: Has anyone checked the MyPillow products for some hypnotizing device?  It was all right in front of us the whole time.  The MyPillow force is soon to activate.

  28. 28.

    citizen dave (aka mad citizen)

    January 15, 2021 at 4:57 pm

    @Mai Naem mobile: I think someone here posted this one night.  Well worth repeating–an excellent site!

  29. 29.

    lgerard

    January 15, 2021 at 4:57 pm

    NRA files for chapter 11 bankruptcy

    Open the books and let’s take a look

  30. 30.

    Martin

    January 15, 2021 at 4:57 pm

    @Steeplejack (phone): I would say to take a look at Liz Cheney’s move. There’s definitely a schism about to take place. She sees an opportunity. Tom Cotton shivving Cruz/Hawley also.

    The GOP is entering the ‘you keep what you kill’ phase of politics.

  31. 31.

    Another Scott

    January 15, 2021 at 4:58 pm

    @Martin: Made me look…

    WaPo photographer got a close-up of the My Pillow guy's notes.

    Hard to read. Seems to push for using "martial law if necessary."

    References Sidney Powell and, I think, an attorney at the NSA ("Fort Mead" sic). Advocates for Trump to "move Kash Patel to acting CIA" pic.twitter.com/xU0tz3YDo7

    — Robert Maguire (@RobertMaguire_) January 15, 2021

    (via TheRealHoarse)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  32. 32.

    Haroldo

    January 15, 2021 at 4:59 pm

    @Martin:

    Good christ what have we become. MyPillow guy is at WH with notes. Reporter got a photograph of them. Looks like a suggestion to use the insurrection to declare martial law, blame the whole thing on either China or Iran, and install more loyalists ad stay in power.

    Good Christ, indeed! Where’d you see this? It’s beyond my ken to think that this would/could be possible. Yet, here we are

    ETA Another Scott provided the reference.  Thanks.

  33. 33.

    Cheryl Rofer

    January 15, 2021 at 4:59 pm

    @Martin: Either way, fine with me!

  34. 34.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 4:59 pm

    @Steeplejack (phone):  Exactly. Republicans are still Republicans. Yeah, we deposed one Nazi but over half the House and probably a quarter of the Senate are still Nazis and the ones who aren’t are still dead-end, no-compromise asshole obstructionists.

  35. 35.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 5:01 pm

    @Martin: Liz Cheney’s rejection of Trump (second impeachment / check me but didn’t see vote against impeachment the first time?) doesn’t make her a fellow-traveler. What do you imagine Liz Cheney is going to do for Democrats?

  36. 36.

    What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?

    January 15, 2021 at 5:02 pm

    If you declare martial law in an empty White House with no-one around to hear it, did it really happen?

  37. 37.

    Calouste

    January 15, 2021 at 5:02 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: It won’t tilt the vote, because the replacements for the Senators most likely to be expelled will be appointed by Republican governors. So most likely one asshole seditionist will be replaced with another.

  38. 38.

    Searcher

    January 15, 2021 at 5:04 pm

    @dmsilev: Don’t worry, the Ponies for All Act of 2021 is still on the table.

  39. 39.

    Steeplejack (phone)

    January 15, 2021 at 5:04 pm

    @Martin:

    So far the schism has stopped at the point of: “But vote for a Democrat?! Aw, hell, no!” I don’t think I’ve even seen any of the Lincoln Project people sporting an ‘I voted for Biden” button.

  40. 40.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 5:04 pm

    @lgerard: So they can reincorporate in TX with no oversight. Russian money will be flowing freely again soon.

  41. 41.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 5:06 pm

    @Steeplejack (phone): To be fair, Steve Schmidt is identifying as a Democrat now. But to be fair again, that will most likely translate as one more asshole Democrat telling us what we can’t do.

  42. 42.

    Martin

    January 15, 2021 at 5:06 pm

    @Just Some Fuckhead: I’m not saying she’ll do anything. She’s just a different breed of dictator. But Democrats benefit when Republicans in-fight, particularly if they are willing to sell each other out accepting short term losses in favor of potential long term gains. Cotton was one of the first I saw calling for Cruz/Hawley to resign, because he wants to clear the field. It makes it harder to keep the caucus together and they damage to each other which helps Dems in generals. May not last long, but you take what you can get.

  43. 43.

    Calouste

    January 15, 2021 at 5:06 pm

    @Just Some Fuckhead: It seems that Liz Cheney wants to keep a small-d democracy in place, which is more than can be said of the majority of her caucus. So there’s that. Other than that, I don’t expect much.

  44. 44.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 5:08 pm

    @Martin: There won’t be infighting. Liz Cheney will vote with every other Republican against “socialism”.

  45. 45.

    Kristine

    January 15, 2021 at 5:10 pm

    @Kent: Thanks for this.

  46. 46.

    Kent

    January 15, 2021 at 5:10 pm

    @Martin:

    @Steeplejack (phone): I would say to take a look at Liz Cheney’s move. There’s definitely a schism about to take place. She sees an opportunity. Tom Cotton shivving Cruz/Hawley also.

    The GOP is entering the ‘you keep what you kill’ phase of politics.

    But is Liz Cheney trying to build a new GOP?   Or is she trying to replace the Trump political aristocracy with a Cheney political aristocracy to follow in the tradition of the Roosevelts, Kennedys, Bushes and Clintons.   I don’t think it was a coincidence that it was Dick Cheney who was actually the mastermind behind the recent anti-Trump letter from the 9 living former Secretaries of Defense.

    Cheney may well have presidential aspirations of her own.

  47. 47.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    January 15, 2021 at 5:11 pm

    @Kent:

    Yes, but the Supreme Court is 6-3 now. And there was an article posted downstairs about how the far-right in red states are going to pass a flurry of religious bills to chip away at LGBTQ+ rights, force Christianity into schools, and take away contraception. I think the likes of ACB are going to want to dismantle the administrative state

  48. 48.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 5:11 pm

    @Kent: Dick Cheney weighed in to protect a system of minority rule through voter suppression, gerrymandering and arcane Senate rules. That’s it.

  49. 49.

    Ksmiami

    January 15, 2021 at 5:12 pm

    @Walker: we need to repeat over and over that the GOP is a fascist organization detrimental to the health and prosperity of every American

  50. 50.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    January 15, 2021 at 5:13 pm

    @Just Some Fuckhead:

    Really? Because a bunch of Repubs were demanding Cheney resign her #3 House leadership position because of her impeachment vote

  51. 51.

    Kent

    January 15, 2021 at 5:14 pm

    @Just Some Fuckhead:@Martin: Liz Cheney’s rejection of Trump (second impeachment / check me but didn’t see vote against impeachment the first time?) doesn’t make her a fellow-traveler. What do you imagine Liz Cheney is going to do for Democrats?

    I expect that Cheney is thinking that there is only going to be on anti-MAGA lane open in the 2024 primaries and she is going to stake a claim for it now over Sasse, Kasich, Hailey, Romney, et. al. and then let Cruz, Cotton, and Hawley fight over the MAGA scraps.

    She is not our friend.  Not one tiny bit.  She is a child of the beltway. Literally.  She doesn’t want to spend the rest of her life pretending to be from Wyoming.

  52. 52.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 5:15 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Right, and what happened?

  53. 53.

    Kent

    January 15, 2021 at 5:17 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    @Kent:

    Yes, but the Supreme Court is 6-3 now. And there was an article posted downstairs about how the far-right in red states are going to pass a flurry of religious bills to chip away at LGBTQ+ rights, force Christianity into schools, and take away contraception. I think the likes of ACB are going to want to dismantle the administrative state

    I agree.  I just think it will take a major watershed vote by the court on the order of Brown v. Board of Education or some such to generate the momentum for a court expansion.  I think they are smart enough to do as you suggest and just chip at modern secular America around the edges and not go to far to create a firestorm of public opposition.

  54. 54.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 5:17 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I don’t do optimism but if we can hold the WH for eight years, there’s a good chance we can replace Alito and Thomas. Then it’s 5-4 liberals.

  55. 55.

    Mallard Filmore

    January 15, 2021 at 5:17 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer:

     

    There’s always the possibility of ejecting members of Congress who conspired with the insurrectionists.

    In addition, the criminal investigations will have an impact; before and during the next election cycle. No sane government can overlook an insurrection, the this one will pop open doors that would have been ignored in the past.

  56. 56.

    hueyplong

    January 15, 2021 at 5:19 pm

    OT, and sorry if someone else has already linked, but video of an anti-masker Trumper being taken out of what might be a coffee shop is described in the comments as “like watching a cat video to calm down.”

    https://twitter.com/MysterySolvent/status/1350171690052046850

    I’d put in some puff about it being uncool to scoff at the misfortune of others, but why lie?  It’s a Schadenfreude frappe with a dash of cinnamon

  57. 57.

    wvng

    January 15, 2021 at 5:19 pm

    @Steeplejack (phone): a bunchn of the L.P. folks said they voted for Biden.

  58. 58.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 5:20 pm

    @Mallard Filmore: I seriously don’t see the arresting/charging/expelling of the Sedition caucus. I keep hearing that’s a possibility but I can’t wrap my head around that actually happening. These people are elected reps. They are going to get every benefit of the doubt. There will be no consequences.

  59. 59.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    January 15, 2021 at 5:23 pm

    @Kent:

    I’d argue that’s even worse. Like a frog being boiled in water with the temperature being gradually increased. They can slowly try to reverse all social progress without huge public blowback. That’s means we’re fucked unless Thomas or Alito die in the next 4-8 years

  60. 60.

    Mallard Filmore

    January 15, 2021 at 5:23 pm

    @lgerard:

     

    NRA files for chapter 11 bankruptcy

    Open the books and let’s take a look

    If the Scientology tactics are still viable, a right wing billionaire can buy the NRA, pay the creditors, and keep the books private.

  61. 61.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    January 15, 2021 at 5:26 pm

    @Just Some Fuckhead:

    Maybe. We can hope and work towards that outcome

  62. 62.

    Matt McIrvin

    January 15, 2021 at 5:26 pm

    @Kent: Overturning the ACA is an interesting one: if that ridiculous troll suit actually succeeds (which it sounds like it actually might not), it’s the kind of thing that could be trivially patched up by Congress…

    But only by passing a law. A very simple, status-quo kind of law, which the Republican minority is going to block if they can, because they want the ACA to die without going to the trouble to repeal it.

    I could see that being the thing that kills the legislative filibuster, if it goes down like that

    For that matter, the ACA needs a lot of little minor repairs anyway (and a pretty major one–plugging the benefits hole caused by rejecting Medicaid expansion), and it’s ridiculous that the Republican Senate minority will be able to keep it obviously broken because they still want it to fail and die.

  63. 63.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 5:28 pm

    @hueyplong: That’s so awesome. Thanks for sharing.

  64. 64.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 5:29 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Well, no. We can’t actually help to fell them. But I think Thomas goes inside 4 years and Alito goes inside 8.

  65. 65.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    January 15, 2021 at 5:30 pm

    @Just Some Fuckhead:

    Sorry, I meant towards working to elect Dems over the next several cycles

  66. 66.

    Another Scott

    January 15, 2021 at 5:31 pm

    @Another Scott: Is it just me, or does it look like the black Sharpie scratching in the photo was added after the picture was taken?

    I suspect that it wasn’t, but it sure looks like it might have been.

    Hmm.  Who uses a black Sharpie…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  67. 67.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    January 15, 2021 at 5:33 pm

    @Just Some Fuckhead:

    Well, it hasn’t been that long for consequences to happen to her yet. It’s been what 2 days? I’m sure these Reps have to get their ducks in a row to get rid of her as an important caucus chair. After all, if you come at the King, you better not miss

  68. 68.

    hueyplong

    January 15, 2021 at 5:34 pm

    @Just Some Fuckhead: If you’ll indulge my temptation to go all Zapruder on the white privilege aspects of that video, let’s focus on the last minute.

    Black officer has said “M’am” what seems like 100 times, while holding her forearm what appears to be fairly lightly for a cop.  She accuses him of “stealing” her purse.

    Then white cop appears and asks if she’s “out of here.”  Black cop says yes.  White cop immediately grabs one side and out she goes.  He’s accustomed to hauling  without ramification.

    As they exit, she says “Shame on you” a couple of times.  She only says that to the white cop, because that’s the one who was supposed to resolve the “dispute” in her favor.

    “I am not under arrest!” and the primal scream as the cuffs go on is a chef’s kiss conclusion.  Unless you think that her suit against the city/county being tanked by her own friend’s video is the chef’s kiss.  Eye of the beholder and all that.

  69. 69.

    Feathers

    January 15, 2021 at 5:35 pm

    @hueyplong: Fantastic. I really want to find out the story behind this one. I’ve known women like this. They get their way by being so crazy and annoying that people just give in rather than put up with them for even one more minute.

  70. 70.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 5:35 pm

    (removed)

  71. 71.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 5:36 pm

    @Martin: No disagreements about the filibuster but it is specifically designed to give the minority power it didn’t achieve at the ballot box. I’ll believe it’s gone when I see it’s gone.

  72. 72.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    January 15, 2021 at 5:39 pm

    @Just Some Fuckhead:

    I’ll believe it’s gone when I see it’s gone.

    Yup. Most people focus on Manchin, but get back to me when Angus King is ready to get rid of it.

  73. 73.

    Another Scott

    January 15, 2021 at 5:41 pm

    ICYMI, ProPublica has a Parler video from inside the mob that confronted Officer Eugene Goodman at the Capitol.

    They sure seemed to have an excellent idea of where they were going (at least initially).

    Grrr…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  74. 74.

    Kent

    January 15, 2021 at 5:42 pm

    @Matt McIrvin:

    @Kent: Overturning the ACA is an interesting one: if that ridiculous troll suit actually succeeds (which it sounds like it actually might not), it’s the kind of thing that could be trivially patched up by Congress…

    But only by passing a law. A very simple, status-quo kind of law, which the Republican minority is going to block if they can, because they want the ACA to die without going to the trouble to repeal it.

    I could see that being the thing that kills the legislative filibuster, if it goes down like that

    For that matter, the ACA needs a lot of little minor repairs anyway (and a pretty major one–plugging the benefits hole caused by rejecting Medicaid expansion), and it’s ridiculous that the Republican Senate minority will be able to keep it obviously broken because they still want it to fail and die.

    Yeah.  I’m talking more along the lines of a commerce clause ruling that invalidates large swaths of the regulatory state from the ACA to medicare to social security.   This court isn’t shy about reaching down into the lower courts and snatching up issues to rule on that aren’t even before them.  I don’t think they are actually going to do it.  It would be a Federalist society wet dream.  But I think that is the sort of event it would take to generate momentum for a massive court expansion.

  75. 75.

    Steeplejack

    January 15, 2021 at 5:42 pm

    @wvng:

    Let me rephrase: I don’t see any of the anti-Trump Republicans, including the Lincoln Project people, supporting any Democratic initiatives beyond getting rid of Trump. They had to vote for Biden to get that.

    And I don’t see how any of the Republican infighting leads to coöperation with Democrats. Even if they’re at each other’s throats, the Repugs will come together to vote against radical left commie Democrat socialism sharia law. Even if Liz Cheney is booted from their leadership, she’ll still vote with the rest of the Republicans from the back bench. They want lower taxes (for the rich), less regulation and more far-right judges to prop up their minority rule. That’s it. They all agree on that, no matter how much they may hate each other. Oops, I forgot that next Wednesday the national debt will become the greatest crisis in the history of the republic.

  76. 76.

    JanieM

    January 15, 2021 at 5:43 pm

    @hueyplong:

    As they exit, she says “Shame on you” a couple of times.  She only says that to the white cop, because that’s the one who was supposed to resolve the “dispute” in her favor.

    Yes, that was striking. So very blatant.

  77. 77.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    January 15, 2021 at 5:44 pm

    In other news, the My Pillow guy seems to have brought a plan of action to the Oval Office today

    Daniel W. Drezner @dandrezner 51m
    “Move Kash Patel to CIA Acting…”

    I’ve seen people on twitter say he calls for martial law (probably Marshall Law), but I can’t see it in the very hard to read paper he’s accidentally holding up

  78. 78.

    Viva BrisVegas

    January 15, 2021 at 5:44 pm

    Is Puerto Rico and DC statehood still a thing?

    Four friendly faces in the Senate would come in very handy.

  79. 79.

    artem1s

    January 15, 2021 at 5:44 pm

    let’s see how the investigations into the Day of Infamy 2.0: Capital Hill Electric Boogaloo turns out. May not have a couple of sitting Senators and Representatives to kick around anymore (fingers crossed).

  80. 80.

    hueyplong

    January 15, 2021 at 5:45 pm

    @Kent: How 1935 of them if they do that.

  81. 81.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 5:48 pm

    @Steeplejack: Co-signed. We’re about to have 2008-2016 Redux.

  82. 82.

    Another Scott

    January 15, 2021 at 5:50 pm

    @lgerard: Twitter tells me that they want to get out of incorporation in NY and move to TX.

    It also tells me …

    But the NRA can't just pick up and leave New York for Texas, @quasiasher reported in @Newsweek last year — the NY AG must sign off. https://t.co/FKckekS093 pic.twitter.com/6aLhwadG3p

    — The Trace (@teamtrace) January 15, 2021

    [ womp, womp ]

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  83. 83.

    Kent

    January 15, 2021 at 5:50 pm

    @hueyplong:@Kent: How 1935 of them if they do that.

    Yep. Just like there is a whole MAGA alternate reality ecosystem out there, we also have a whole Federalist society 1935 ecosystem out there where they dream and write of a completely neutered executive branch.  Where nothing is constitutional if it is more complex than what life was like in 1789 Philadelphia.

  84. 84.

    hueyplong

    January 15, 2021 at 5:51 pm

    @Kent: FDR called it “horse and buggy.”

  85. 85.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 5:52 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Ok, Liz will keep her leadership position. She will continue to vote Republican down the line. There isn’t some weird alternative universe where Republicans have a come to Jesus moment. Their base are much bigger assholes than they are. Only thing that’s changing the political calculus going forward is Boomer death and Millennial hegemony.

  86. 86.

    Brachiator

    January 15, 2021 at 5:53 pm

    @Steeplejack:

    Oops, I forgot that next Wednesday the national debt will become the greatest crisis in the history of the republic.

    It is really tiresome to hear reporters fall into “Oh, hear comes that irresponsible spending from Democrats.”

    Biden and his people should be able to rattle off how much Trump’s tax cuts cost, and how much Trump’s own stimulus cost.

    Republicans didn’t care.  Reporters barely asked about it.

    Fuck ’em.

  87. 87.

    CatFacts

    January 15, 2021 at 5:56 pm

    One place I think Republican infighting might help us is in the primaries for 2021-22 elections. It’s probably one reason Warnock is in the Senate. From what I’ve heard from Louisiana-based friends, it’s absolutely one reason Louisiana has a Democratic governor. The cracks might be small, but a smart candidate on the Democratic side can exploit a nasty, contested Republican primary to peel off voters.

  88. 88.

    Martin

    January 15, 2021 at 5:59 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: 2nd paragraph. I’m guessing that says to …invoke the Insurrection Act now as a result of the assault on the Capitol … martial law if necessary upon the first hint of any …

  89. 89.

    Brachiator

    January 15, 2021 at 5:59 pm

    @hueyplong:

    OT, and sorry if someone else has already linked, but video of an anti-masker Trumper being taken out of what might be a coffee shop is described in the comments as “like watching a cat video to calm down.”

    Wait. Is this an outtake of Cheetah from Wonder Woman 1984?

  90. 90.

    Martin

    January 15, 2021 at 6:01 pm

    @artem1s: Just a suggestion – don’t use that boogaloo reference. The Boogaloo Bois co-oped it to refer to the 2nd civil war they’re planning.

  91. 91.

    Martin

    January 15, 2021 at 6:03 pm

    Not only a good science team, but WH Science Advisor becomes a Cabinet level position.

  92. 92.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    January 15, 2021 at 6:05 pm

    @Martin: I think you’re right, better picture here. I don’t know if it’s been established that those are Mr MyPillow’s notes, but it’s pretty clear that the President of These United States, who occupies the seat of George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Barack Obama, is consulting with Mr MyPillow on how to play out his last days in office.

    I’m one of those who think McConnell leaking about impeachment was a threat to trump (McConnell will do whatever increases his own power), and I gotta think other threats have been made. But his crazy little brain is still churning. I think he sees Letitia James out of the corner of his eye every four minutes or so

    John Harwood @JohnJHarwood 39m
    from CNN colleague@KaraScannell: “The Manhattan DA has expanded its criminal investigation into the Trump Organization’s finances to include the family compound in Westchester County.   “It’s a significant widening of an investigation that draws closer to Eric Trump.”

    Eric, who’s probably tied for second-dumbest Large Adult Child

  93. 93.

    Aleta

    January 15, 2021 at 6:10 pm

    @Mai Naem mobile: That’s amazing.

  94. 94.

    Martin

    January 15, 2021 at 6:11 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I can confirm he has a ring like that. I can’t tell you why I know that.

  95. 95.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 6:13 pm

    @hueyplong: Black lady would have been on the floor in a chokehold with other cops beating her with batons here and there. That’s just a fact.

  96. 96.

    hueyplong

    January 15, 2021 at 6:14 pm

    @Just Some Fuckhead: My next encounter with a black female anti-masker will be my first.

  97. 97.

    Steeplejack

    January 15, 2021 at 6:17 pm

    @Just Some Fuckhead:

    The only thing moving the meter would be if Republicans actually start to feel some heat for not supporting Biden and the Democrats’ initiatives. The pandemic and the coup attempt may do that. But so far the Republicans’ absolute stinginess on pandemic relief has not stuck to them. Too many people attribute it to “Congress” or “partisan gridlock.”

    It will be interesting to see how the coup/​insurrection stuff plays out. There’s a lot of information that hasn’t come out yet, and some of it could be crippling to various Republicans. ?

    Ugh. Ari Melber is interviewing James Comey, probably at the behest of the network suits. Melber seems slightly exasperated, and Comey is mouthing his usual tone-deaf bullshit. Didn’t anyone ever tell him to go home and take up knitting?

    ETA: Oh, yeah, I forgot. Rose Twitter, with Susan Sarandon and the usual suspects in the vanguard, is up in arms today about $1,400 vs. $2,000 for the additional stimulus checks. That is the worst crisis facing the republic, and Biden is a total corporate sellout who has betrayed the country.

  98. 98.

    zhena gogolia

    January 15, 2021 at 6:19 pm

    @hueyplong:

    hahahaha

    Am I a bad person?

    They really think if they’re white they can do whatever they want.

  99. 99.

    Aleta

    January 15, 2021 at 6:23 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:  Some of that is what the Oat h* kee *pers have been advocating.  I looked at the remains of the website today (they lost their host).  They’ve been demanding that T  invoke the Insurrection Act.  Left wing Californians (and others) are proxies for China and used election.fraud to prevent T staying in power.

  100. 100.

    Kent

    January 15, 2021 at 6:25 pm

    @Steeplejack:The only thing moving the meter would be if Republicans actually start to feel some heat for not supporting Biden and the Democrats’ initiatives. The pandemic and the coup attempt may do that. But so far the Republicans’ absolute stinginess on pandemic relief has not stuck to them. Too many people attribute it to “Congress” or “partisan gridlock.”

    Bwah ha ha ha.   Thanks, you made my day with that joke of yours.  Republicans paying a price for their obstruction?   That is some comedy gold right there

    In the real life world we live in, they are REWARDED for obstruction 24/7 on Fox News and through all the fundraising they bring in.

  101. 101.

    Geminid

    January 15, 2021 at 6:26 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: So far as I know, Angus King (I-ME) has kept his cards close to his vest regarding the filibuster. But Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) went on record last year to say she opposed ending the filibuster.

  102. 102.

    lowtechcyclist

    January 15, 2021 at 6:28 pm

    Sounds like the best play for 218-50-1-5 is to find out what Joe Manchin will sign onto – with respect to voting rights, climate change, Covid relief, and generally helping poor and working class Americans in tangible ways – and stuff it all into one big-ass reconciliation bill.

  103. 103.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    January 15, 2021 at 6:28 pm

    @dmsilev: Will you settle for a unicorn?

  104. 104.

    lowtechcyclist

    January 15, 2021 at 6:32 pm

    @Geminid: Yeah, anyone paying attention knew we had to get up to at least 52 Dem Senators, probably 53, to have even a chance of killing the filibuster.

    Crazy that there are still some Dems who can’t see what a trap it is for them, but that’s the way it is.

    ETA: I wonder if there are some ways to chip away at it, carve some more exceptions to it, that would fly with Manchin, Sinema, Feinstein, and whoever else wants to keep it. Because getting rid of it entirely sadly ain’t happening.

  105. 105.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    January 15, 2021 at 6:33 pm

    @Kent:
    I don’t find this funny (not a ding towards you, believe me). If we don’t reverse what the GOP has done, the country will only continue to get worse and we’ll be right back to where we were on 1/20/17 in 4-8 years

  106. 106.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    January 15, 2021 at 6:35 pm

    @Geminid: last I heard he was agin it, but a quick google suggests he’s gone from “drawing a line” (in June) to being flexible if McConnell goes too far (October), which was good to see.

    Sen. Angus King, an independent from Maine who caucuses with the Democrats, also told CNN that he’s long backed the filibuster, but wouldn’t rule out getting rid of it if Republicans blocked a Democratic President’s agenda at every turn.
    “I think it is an important protection for the minority and some incentive toward bipartisan legislation is important, but that is based upon the premise, however, that the minority does not abuse the rule,” King said. “If it is abused, I am subject to changing my view.”

    I could see King getting personally and righteously angry enough to be the 50th knife.

  107. 107.

    artem1s

    January 15, 2021 at 6:37 pm

    @Martin:

    @artem1s: Just a suggestion – don’t use that boogaloo reference. The Boogaloo Bois co-oped it to refer to the 2nd civil war they’re planning

    yes, exactly.  Let’s call it what it was. Another attempt by white supremacists to start a race war and second civil war. Go and read some of the history around Lincoln’s election and what the southern Congressmen were saying about what they’d do if he won the election.  They egged on their constituents and SC seceded within days. It was a planned insurrection that led to the Civil War.  We just don’t know how far Cruz and the others were planning to go if things had gone differently last Wednesday. But their aim was to call the legitimate government into question and call for it’s overthrow.  So I’m perfectly happy to call it that since that’s what they wanted.  Make them own it.

  108. 108.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 6:38 pm

    @Steeplejack: Gin & Tacos is also losing his mind about the $1400 thing versus $2000, pretending that we can’t understand why 2K didn’t happen when, in fact, $600 + $1400 = $2000.

    Deliberate ignorance. If these folks spent a quarter of the time they spend fighting Democrats on fighting Republicans, maybe more would be possible, but Democrats are always the great threat.

  109. 109.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 6:42 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Is Kyrsten Sinema on board? Last I heard, she wasn’t.

  110. 110.

    Geminid

    January 15, 2021 at 6:46 pm

    @lowtechcyclist: I don’t think voting rights legislation would qualify for reconciliation. But President Obama caught my attention last year when at John Lewis’s funeral he said that if the filibuster blocked a new Voting Rights Act, it should be eliminated. I imagine Obama keeps in touch with some Senators, and I think he spoke advisedly. Whether in fact the 50 votes will be there remains to be seen. But- and this may drive people crazy- the Senate could pass a rule bypassing the 60 vote requirement just for voting rights legislation. That would add a third exception to the general rule. The first is reconciliation, the second is judicial nominations.

    Why would the 48 Democtats and 2 Independents pass such a narrow exception? Well, for one thing, they know how much damage trump could have done 2017-2018 without the filibuster, and that the tables may be turned again in 2024.

  111. 111.

    Steeplejack

    January 15, 2021 at 6:48 pm

    @Just Some Fuckhead:

    And overlooking the fact that $1,400 and $2,000 are both mere Band-Aids in the face of what a l0t of Americans are going through. We need all that other stuff: extended unemployment benefits, eviction protection, etc., etc. And help for small businesses that doesn’t get siphoned off to celebrities and cronies.

  112. 112.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    January 15, 2021 at 6:50 pm

    @Geminid: I that’s the path to take. Make the Republicans who have been bullshitting about election integrity for two months take a stand for or against the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.

  113. 113.

    Baud

    January 15, 2021 at 7:00 pm

    Online far-right movements fracture in wake of Capitol riot

  114. 114.

    Baud

    January 15, 2021 at 7:02 pm

    @Steeplejack:

    ETA: Oh, yeah, I forgot. Rose Twitter, with Susan Sarandon and the usual suspects in the vanguard, is up in arms today about $1,400 vs. $2,000 for the additional stimulus checks.

    Apparently, AOC lent an assist to them.

  115. 115.

    Geminid

    January 15, 2021 at 7:03 pm

    @Geminid: In any event, I don’t look for the Democrats to try to eliminate the filibuster right out of the box. They’ll try to get critical economic legislation passed through reconciliation, and tack on what energy and health care legislation they can. Then if 41 Republicans block other critical and popular legislation like voting rights, immigration reform and clean energy initiatives they will make the  filibuster reform case for the Democrats. What is blocked in March may well pass in April.

  116. 116.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    January 15, 2021 at 7:05 pm

    @Baud:

    Apparently, AOC lent an assist to them.

    that doesn’t sound like the AOC(!) I know….

  117. 117.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 7:05 pm

    @Steeplejack: Right, Canada is giving their citizens $2K a month. To be fair, Canada doesn’t have a voracious, insatiable military-industrial complex to feed.

  118. 118.

    Baud

    January 15, 2021 at 7:09 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Well, the tweet I saw was disappointing because it was misleading about what the prior push was for. She makes it seem like Biden cut back on the prior proposal, when he simply adopted it.  If she wants to push for more, that’s one thing. But the tweet I saw was deceptive.

  119. 119.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    January 15, 2021 at 7:16 pm

    @Baud: I was snarking. I am not a fan of Herself. She’s going to be on Maddow tonight, and I’m sure there will be a lot very earnest grimacing about how she just wants to help corporate consensus neoliberal Joe Biden be better. Like she is.

  120. 120.

    Procopius

    January 15, 2021 at 7:36 pm

    @Kent:

    The Federal government and executive branch already have tremendous statutory and regulatory power that has simply been allowed to atrophy, or has been deliberately and maliciously vandalized.

    I think this is a very important observation. I don’t want to see Trump tried in the Senate because it will allow the Republicans to delay for months the confirmation of cabinet and sub-cabinet officers and the rescission of rules they put in place in the last month of the lame duck. It wasn’t just under Trump, the Republicans have been sabotaging government agencies since Reagan. They claim government doesn’t work, and then make sure it can’t. The Democrats have not been diligent in repairing the damage. I can understand the desire (need?) for revenge, but we need to prioritize things.

  121. 121.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    January 15, 2021 at 7:49 pm

    @Procopius:  That’s an awful take. Democrats will control the Senate. It won’t take months to try Trump. Impeachment trial isn’t going to hold up shit.

  122. 122.

    Kent

    January 15, 2021 at 7:53 pm

    @Procopius:I think this is a very important observation. I don’t want to see Trump tried in the Senate because it will allow the Republicans to delay for months the confirmation of cabinet and sub-cabinet officers and the rescission of rules they put in place in the last month of the lame duck. It wasn’t just under Trump, the Republicans have been sabotaging government agencies since Reagan. They claim government doesn’t work, and then make sure it can’t. The Democrats have not been diligent in repairing the damage. I can understand the desire (need?) for revenge, but we need to prioritize things.

    Exactly.  The clock is ticking on the Democrat’s ability to roll back the most egregious last-minute Trump regulatory changes by using the Congressional Review Act.  And there are a lot of them to roll back, from dismantling of environmental protection to anti-LGBT regulations.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Review_Act

  123. 123.

    Kent

    January 15, 2021 at 7:57 pm

    @Geminid:

    @lowtechcyclist: I don’t think voting rights legislation would qualify for reconciliation. But President Obama caught my attention last year when at John Lewis’s funeral he said that if the filibuster blocked a new Voting Rights Act, it should be eliminated. I imagine Obama keeps in touch with some Senators, and I think he spoke advisedly. Whether in fact the 50 votes will be there remains to be seen. But- and this may drive people crazy- the Senate could pass a rule bypassing the 60 vote requirement just for voting rights legislation. That would add a third exception to the general rule. The first is reconciliation, the second is judicial nominations.

    Why would the 48 Democtats and 2 Independents pass such a narrow exception? Well, for one thing, they know how much damage trump could have done 2017-2018 without the filibuster, and that the tables may be turned again in 2024.

    Not just “voting rights”  Make it for “civil rights” so you can walk things like police reform through that door as well.  The rationale is easy to make  A minority should not have the ability to block civil rights for other Americans.  That is simply unjust.

  124. 124.

    Procopius

    January 15, 2021 at 7:58 pm

    @wvng:

    We also know from the Obama years that the mathematical truth that Dems can only get a Senate majority by running conservatives in red states, …

    You may be right. That certainly is the belief and strategy of the Democratic Leadership Council, which may have been dissolved formally but still exists in the “leadership” of the Democratic Party. I hope that they are wrong, and that Democrats could regain the ability to pass progressive policies by:

    1. Run their campaigns by actually proposing policies, especially policies which would make people’s daily lives better.
    2. Give up their obsessive lust for means testing, which is a huge barrier for people who actually work for a living.
  125. 125.

    Geminid

    January 15, 2021 at 8:17 pm

    @Kent: There’s a lot of truth to what you say. But as far as police reform goes, existing laws give the Justice Department powerful tools to protect citizens from systemic civil rights abuse by law enforcement, if it will just use them. And if we keep the Justice Department in Democratic hands.

  126. 126.

    Procopius

    January 15, 2021 at 11:18 pm

     

    @Just Some Fuckhead:  Well, I am not an expert on parliamentary rules, but between whatever legal counsel is defending Trump (actually, I hope they use Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell) and objections, points of order, quorum calls, and any other devices they can find, I think “control of the Senate” doesn’t mean what you think it means. I hope I’m wrong and you’re right.

  127. 127.

    Procopius

    January 15, 2021 at 11:23 pm

    @Geminid: You’re right, and the laws, regulations, and even policies are still there. It was just that Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III ordered the department to stop using them. One of the really good moves Biden has made so far is to name Merrick Garland to Attorney General. I didn’t much like him as a possible Supreme Court justice, but I think he’ll be a great prosecutor.

  128. 128.

    glc

    January 16, 2021 at 12:17 am

    I find the premise unconvincing.

    The Trump administration accomplished a great deal without meeting those conditions.  And without manifesting any particular degree of competence, McConnell aside.

    This is an odd time to be lowering expectations. However raising expectations is not what this site does; it has other virtues. And it’s always been a good place to rage against the dying of the light, when that was the main thing on offer.

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