Just a reminder.
The minimum winning coalition for long term legislative change in the United States is:
- 218 votes in the House
- 51 or 60 votes in the Senate depending on what rule set a bill is being advanced under
- 1 signature at the White House
- 5 votes on the Supreme Court.
218-51-1-5 is the minimum coalition that can pass and sustain legislative change in the United States.
These are the realities that define possibility spaces. Democrats will have significant power in ten days. There will be a liberal friendly signer in the White House. There will be liberals controlling both the Senate and House floor calendars. These are real powers. However the power of a majority is partially a function of how many votes a faction can afford to lose. In 2009, Senator Majority Leader Reid had no spare votes in his back pocket. In 2021, Senate Majority Leader Schumer would also have no spare votes in his back pocket. His working majority is contingent on perfect health of both his caucus and no travel disruptions. In 2009, Speaker Pelosi could afford to lose dozens of votes. In 2021, she can afford to lose four or five votes.
5 is going to be the biggest challenge compared to 2009-2019.
Keep 218-51-1-5 in mind on what is actually possible.