Look, when people vote for a 44 year-old bisexual woman who grew up in Tucson, they don’t expect her to make common cause with a 73 year-old white male from West Virginia.
I’ve spent a lot of time in the Tucson area. Tucson, politically, is pretty damn liberal. The votes that put Democrats into the Senate come from southern Arizona, including Tucson. She could have just kept her head down and voted like a Democrat. She didn’t, and now she has work to do.
raven
ugh
montanareddog
It would be interesting also to compare her favourability ratings with those of Manchin. It seems to me his political instincts, though somewhat frustrating to liberals, are definitely better attuned to the reality of his state than hers.
Brachiator
Why not?
Did she actually say or do anything that suggested that she would be reliably liberal?
Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix
@Brachiator: I haven’t examined her campaign materials deeply, but I do know that my liberal cousins living in Tucson expected her to be more liberal based on her life story.
Served
You lie down with Blue Dogs…
The fact is that Mark Kelly doesn’t have this problem, because he is focusing on his job, and she is focusing on making herself the face of defending the filibuster.
schrodingers_cat
@Brachiator: I have heard that she is not of fan of the Sage of Vt.
Adam Lang
She wants to be John McCain. Ugh.
Major Major Major Major
I will continue waiting for her opinions to be decisive before I hate her too much.
Leto
@Brachiator: I wouldn’t say that she needs to be super liberal, but I would say that she can’t take the temp in the room to save her political life as the polling now suggests. She walked away with her senate seat saying, “this shows that my voters want me to work across the aisle”, when what they said was, “Fuck them, help us!”
Baud
She doesn’t face reelection until 2024.
cthulhu
She was a Green party candidate early in her career.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Maybe this will be a wake-up call.
Chetan Murthy
@Brachiator: You make a good point: just because D’felon D’vorce D’spousa is as brown as I am, doesn’t mean that he’s gonna be stalwart when it comes to racism. And hell, it doesn’t even mean that a bisexual woman will, y’know, keep faith with her voters.
Women, LGBTQ, BIPOC, they (we) can all be just as shitty as any White (capitalized, b/c there are lots of non-shitty white people) person. But it doesn’t take away the anger and feeling of betrayal.
I mean, she ran as a *Democrat*, and you’d think she can read her state. But no.
P.S. Maybe we’re all wrong, and she’ll come around. Hey, it’s only a matter of saving the damn Republic. Ensuring that we don’t end up in a hot civil war.
P.P.S. By the time we get to that hot civil war, she won’t be any use as a broodmare (too old), so she won’t get assigned to a Commander as his handmaid. So she’s got that going for her.
Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix
@Baud: That’s why I said she has work to do. Every year between here and 2024, the electorate in southern Arizona gets younger and more liberal.
ByRookorbyCrook
Favorability 4 years out is pretty useless. We just flipped the Whitehouse and Senate and held control of the House. People want a more liberal government. In 2024, during a possible return of He Who Should Not Be Named to a Presidential election, after a mid-term election that could swing toward the Goopers, will she be so underwater with Az Dems? We shall see. If we continue to hold the reins after the mid-terms, I would see her changing her views a bit, but not before then. There is too much reserve value for the BS Bipartisan.
namekarB
This is my take also. The Tucson area most definitely Liberal.
Brachiator
@Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix:
Fair enough, I guess. But life story doesn’t say too much.
Her past political record was mostly liberal, but who knows.
She seems to want to be regarded as a Maverick sometimes.
James E Powell
@cthulhu:
While Green Party reads as “liberal” in the press/media and to many people, my experience is that the most common shared ideology of Green Party people is hostility to the Democratic Party.
Splitting Image
@cthulhu:
This warrants a reminder that “Green” stands for “Getting Republicans Elected Every November”.
Brachiator
Silent Sinema…?
PeakVT
1992 should call for Sinema and ask for its triangulation back.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
On the one hand, she beat an incumbent, and a veteran, in a reddish purple state, so she knows something.
on the other, it’s hard to imagine how anyone who wasn’t drunk or stupid would think that cutesy little thumbs down stunt would make her look good.
if your schtick is fiscal moderation, your schtick is also the sober-minded, even reluctant, opponent of a popular but excessive proposal
don’t most senators mostly vote from their desks?
Miss Bianca
@Splitting Image:
*snort*. Hadn’t heard that one before.
piratedan
Since I am in Tucson I can try and speak to this, at least on a superficial level.
In short, I believe that she pissed off Democrats while attempting to burnish her cred with the Mormon moderates that make up a significant part of the East Valley of the Phoenix Metro area. The dreaded supposedly gettable Independents that McCain always appealed to, which are mythical in nature in that they’ve usually been people who are roughly grouped as Libertarians and shamed Republicans.
Also too… while she may have spent time in Tucson, when she served in the House, she represented the growing suburban metro area of Phoenix.
Tucson is fairly blue in that we have had a history of sending Dems to Congress, but that the State Lege has done a credible job of trying to keep the bulk in one district (Grijalva) and mete out the metro areas with large swaths of rural leaning voters.
Sinema’s biggest failure is in this self-styling advertisement of presenting herself as some sort of iconic independent, which may have had better traction 10 years ago without understanding that actually just being a Dem these days should be good enough as long as she doesn’t style herself as some sort of socialist wannabe (because the GOP is going to say that anyways) and shows that she is reasonable and open to discussion.
By that little scene she played with Mitch McConnell regarding the minimum wage discussion and her previously stated intransigence on the nature of the Filibuster have simply pissed people off. If we had wanted Martha fucking McSally, we would have voted for her, so her playing these games with highly articulated Democratic ideals doesn’t play well, no matter her intent and how well-meaning it was intended, those nuances were not offered in the 45 second local news cut nor has her office followed thru with stating that she will firmly embrace the goals of the Dems.
Jeffro
Maybe…maybe she is John McCain, as in, ‘has been possessed by the spirit of’? Now there’s a really bad movie plot…
Jeffro
Aren’t the odds of this down in the single digits by now?
Geminid
@namekarB: The Tuscson area can’t be but so liberal if it elected Martha McSally to the seat that Gabby Giffords retired from. It took McSally two tries, but she made it in the midterm elections of 2014, and was reelected once before she ran for Senate in 2018. That sounds like a purple district to me. And it’s not like there are not plenty of moderate Democrats in Tucson, and Arizona as a whole. Probably half of Democrats, at least.
James E Powell
@piratedan:
I would understand and probably look past Sinema’s – or any other Democratic senator’s – deviation from the party on an issue if it were clear that her voters would be moved by her stance on the issue. See, e.g., Manchin & Coal.
But I am not convinced voters care about the filibuster or bipartisanship or keeping the minimum wage down. With the latter, especially, since AZ’s minimum wage is already $12.15 and Flagstaff’s is $15.00.
Another Scott
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Since the Clerk calls the roll, and they don’t use “electronic device” as in the House, Senators generally mill around the desk in the front and yell out their vote.
I think they almost never sit at their tiny desks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Kabecoo
I doorbelled for Sinema (and Ds in general) in Tucson in 2018. Among the local active Ds I never met a single one who was enthusiastic about her, most were quite negative. It was “hold your nose and vote” among that group. When doorbelling things were more positive, but not much.
Wife’s family and friends have been politically active there for decades; they held a deep mistrust for her due to her shifting political positions while in the AZ legislature. Nothing she does now is surprising to them.
cokane
@montanareddog: i think you could see Manchin’s numbers as being just as bad as Sinema’s but that being a win for him. Sinema is in a purple state that’s trending blue. Manchin is in a red state that ain’t budging.
I think the big thing here, as mix notes, is just how poorly Sinema has misread her own state.
FWIW, I briefly tried to look up Manchin numbers but could only find national ones, which are basically worthless.
karen marie
@Brachiator: She ran and got elected as a fucking Democrat.
@Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix: And based on the positions she claimed to hold when she campaigned for her current job.
Sinema is really pissing off this Arizona voter.
Mary G
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I believe they changed the Senate procedure for votes to have them temporarily come up to the clerk at the desk and answer in a regular voice. Shouting is contraindicated with the virus, especially the Republicans who take their masks off the second they think of an excuse.
debbie
@Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix:
I’d bet they also didn’t expect her flouncing thumbs down show either.
Geminid
@Brachiator: Actually, when Sinema was elected to Congress in 2012 she joined the Blue Dog Caucus, so there was no reason for anyone to believe that she was very liberal at all.
piratedan
@James E Powell: in short, I think what we’re seeing from Sinema is that in her case, her style is her substance. She believes its a good look to be seen as “independent” and “above the fray” and hold an “iconic position”, regardless of her beliefs (if she has any) and what the position actually is.
I fully expect her to draw a Primary challenger in 24. Someone from the deepening bench here.
I’m going to also reiterate that AZ is purple, not blue… like most other states there is a divide between urban and rural that is significant. I have no idea on how deep a constituency there is for an actual independent here but as is reflected in our national politics there days, if you have a D associated with your name, you’re unlikely to gather many opposing votes because of your personality.
The Thin Black Duke
Right now, Sinema is coming across more like Susan Collins than John McCain.
Spanky
OK, so given the info from AZ voters (thanks all!), what are the possibilities in a primary? Or should I say “who”?
Kineslaw
Sinema’s approval rating brings to mind the Jim Hightower quote, “There’s nothing in the middle of the road except yellow lines and dead armadillos.”
patrick II
I am not sure that it is moderate or liberal or socialist positions that drive her senate actions as much as pure attention-getting. If the rest of her senate party was more conservative then showy liberalism is what she would do. That has sort of worked for freshman women on the right where policy doesn’t matter as much as outrage (and outrageous behavior), but actual shots-in-arms and money-in-pockets matters to democrats and she should care more about actual results rather than putting on a good tv show.
Brachiator
@Chetan Murthy:
BTW, What’s wrong with this guy D’Souza? He talks a lot of crap about American liberals, but his nonsense implies that he thinks that India would have been better off as part of the British Empire. Anyone ever call him out on that?
John Revolta
@Brachiator: I don’t see any contradiction here-?
J R in WV
Being in the Green Party appears to mean one is a pawn of the Russian GRU, actually, as opposed to a progressive liberal.
After all, the Green Party elected Trump over Clinton, didn’t they?
John Revolta
Up until now, “Look at MEEEE!” seems to have worked well for Sinema. Now though, it seems to be backfiring a bit. What remains to be seen is if she’s smart enough to see the signs and shift gears a bit (and also, which way will she shift?).
piratedan
@Spanky: I would expect that Ruben Gallego might give this a long look. He was going to challenge for the open seat but with Kelly having a big organization effort and the Giffords legacy, he decided to keep his powder dry.
I suspect that there might be others as well.
John Revolta
@J R in WV:
I don’t think the Green “Party” is any sort of nationally organized entity- yet. It seems to be a haven for cranks in the various states whose aims vary from “Save the Planet Maan” to Smoke Weed!” to “Dems Bad” to “Smash the State Maan”.
Geminid
@piratedan: More liberal Arizona Democrats encouraged Ruben Gallegos to run against Mark Kelly, who was thought to be a moderate, maybe even a “centrist.” Gallegos went so far as to retain consultants to gauge his chances. By Gallegos’ account he was told that he might win the primary, but it would require a lot of negative advertising, and Gallegos did not want to go there.
lowtechcyclist
Taegan Goddard damn well ought to know better. A 1% poll difference isn’t significant, unless there’s an absolutely massive sample size. But by saying Sinema’s approval is ‘underwater’ based on a 1% difference, that’s exactly what he’s saying.
He wasn’t born yesterday. He’s been around. WTF is he doing, spouting garbage like this?
I realize this is off the topic, but it jumped out at me.
Fair Economist
@Geminid: A Democrats could challenge Sinema from the left now without a direct negative campaign. Just say they’re for decent wages, democracy in government, voting rights, etc. and the electorate will fill in the blanks.
karen marie
@Geminid: Gallego has my deepest respect and admiration.
Sinema does not.
Geminid
@patrick II: If shots in arms and money in pockets are what matter to Democrats in particular and voters in general, Sinema came through for them when she voted for the $1.9 trillion recovery act. And that legislation would never even have gotten a vote if Sinema had not stuck with the Democratic Caucus to make Chuck Schumer Majority Leader, with the power to bring legislation to the Senate floor.
But Arizona has closed primaries, so Arizona Democrats will get to decide Sinema’s future in 2024. Sinema knows she will be primaried, and, probably is hoping for multiple challengers
azlib
@piratedan:
I agree, the scene with McConnell did not go over well with AZ Dems. The electoral problem she has created with her stunt will depress the Dem votes. She won in 2018 by carrying Maricopa County which is the largest in the state. I think she is misreading the electorate badly. She has time to learn from her mistakes, but she better hurry up. She did vote for the rescue package so there is that. I did ask her about her support for HR-1 and she will support the bill. Unfortunately, she was silent on modifying the fillibuster if the bill is fillibustered. HR-1 is a critical bill to ensure high voter turnout and her own reelection.
H-Bob
@Adam Lang: She can be Meghan’s daddy!
Geminid
@Fair Economist: Well hopefully, a Democrat will challenge Sinema without a negative campaign. I follow Arizona politics from a distance, so all I know about the Kelly/Gallegos dynamic is that Kelly’s strength was his personal prestige, as an astronaut and as Gabby Giffords husband, and Gallegos would have had to to try the attacks McSally did in the general election: attack Kelly for the money he made giving speeches to various corporate groups.
And despite what the “progressive” Democrats thought, the liberal Gallegos might have understood that his differences with the moderate Kelly were not that great.
Bill Arnold
@Jeffro:
The chatter on infosec twitter strongly suggests that if Trump launches a social media corporation, it will be … toyed with. The Trump-wing is really obsessed with social media “censorship” of death threats and simiarly dangerous speech normal trump-wing “Conservative” discussions. This obsession is a weakness.
Geminid
One data point about the Arizona electorate: when Arizona voting rolls were closed four weeks before last November’s election, registrations were 35% Republican, 32% Democratic, and 31.7% unaffiliated. This merited a headline in one Arizona news outlet, because up until then Democrats had been third in registrations, behind both the Republicans and the unaffiliated.
Subsole
@Chetan Murthy: She will, however, be executed for her “degenerate lifestyle choices”.
So, yeah, not really an upgrade.
dopey-o
@Geminid:
If the filibuster lives and HR 1 dies, getting Democratic votes into ballot boxes will become much more difficult. It won’t matter who wins an Arizona primary for her seat.
Sinema won’t need to be primaried in 2024: no Democrat will be viable in the general election. Has anyone explained that her career depends on eliminating the filibuster?
Geminid
@dopey-o: I doubt very much that Sinema or Manchin will vote to eliminate the filibuster as a general Senate rule. But there are already three carveouts to the filibuster: for “reconciliation,” lower federal court nominations, and most recently, Supreme Court nominations. Probably the best Senate Democrats will do in this Congress is to create another carveout for voting rights legislation. Even then, Sinema and Manchin will likely make some changes in H.R.1 a requirement for their support.
But if Democrats can’t pass H.R. 1 intact, or even pass it at all, are they doomed? I don’t think so. These measures are resented by all voters except the most partisan, and they can tell it’s a sign of weakness, not strength on the part of the Republican party. And these measures can’t by themselves win elections in the face of a unified and motivated Democratic base. Stacey Abrams certainly isn’t going to throw up her hands and concede the Georgia Governor race if H.R. 1 doesn’t pass, and I hope we don’t either.