As a Democrat with a little pocket money, choosing which races to fund is fraught with challenges. One of them is media full of unreasonable expectations about beating hateful assholes in uber-safe districts. Another is that beating a hateful asshole in a not-so-safe district is is a multi-year task, yet the primary winner on our side only has a couple of months to campaign after they win the primary. Still, after a little investigation and reading, I’m coming to believe that we could beat Lauren Boebert in 2022.
First, let’s look at the district. Geographically, it’s gigantic. It’s basically the Western Slope of Colorado plus Pueblo.
Now, let’s look at a county-by-county breakdown of the 2020 Presidential vote, which more-or-less tracks the vote in CO-3. Yes, I know that I often rail against the use of cloropleth maps but check out my sophisticated graphical notations.
The district itself has a PVI of R+6. The blue counties in the mountains are generally lightly populated ski towns and hippie enclaves. Besides Pueblo, population 112K, (green circle) the other city in the district is Grand Junction (pop 64K, orange circle) in solidly red Mesa county. Those western red counties go for Trump 60-70/40-30. One exception: Boebert is from Rifle, in far western Garfield County, which flipped red to blue in 2020. Boebert lost her home county, which is noted on the map by the “Ha Ha!”. So, the action that we care about is all in Pueblo.
Politico just published a long story from a Denver journalist who spent some quality time in Pueblo, and it isn’t good for Boebert. Politico has a vested interest in making wide-open races look tight, and true to form, this piece mostly quotes Democrats and Union officials. That said, there are a couple of things that I think are good signs:
- The door to Bobert’s Pueblo office is often locked. (And she doesn’t return the head of the steelworkers union’s call, quelle surprise, but what other calls don’t her staffers return?) One of the best ways to beat someone like her is to convince her district that she’s a lazy glory hound.
- Pueblo is home to one of three steel mills in the nation that make rail. Boebert does not support Biden’s infrastructure plan that would lead to more railroad construction.
- Boebert only has one announced Republican challenger, who’s a political nobody. The worst thing that could happen is that a reasonable Republican beats her in a primary and then takes the district.
- There are a lot of Democrats in the race, and they’re raising decent amounts of cash (collectively, they’ve raised just a little less than $500K, which is about what Boebert has raised.) Like the 2020 Presidential election, CO-3 in 2022 is an audition for who can field the most effective attacks on Boebert, so I’m happy to see a bunch of Democrats vying for that prize.
The final fact about Boebert that makes me think she’s beatable is how terribly she comes off when she isn’t tweeting.
Here she is, sitting in her restaurant questioning an intelligent, calm Biden Administration member (Acting Budget Director Shalanda Young) and her affect and demeanor is that of a dumb teenager trying to get the principal’s goat. For all her guns, she clearly lacks confidence and can’t think on her feet. If the Democratic Party were more like the Republican Party, we’d be up on Facebook and other social media with “Lauren Boebert is a fool who won’t get you any money” ads.
The bottom line here is that beating MTG in her R+28 district is a pipe dream. Hate her all you will, she just has to stay out of jail in order to win in 2022. Boebert is another story entirely. While there’s often talk about “X factors” or “October surprises” that don’t pan out, I think it’s likely that Boebert conspired in some way with some 1/6 perpetrators, and that’s another reason that I think she’s beatable.
MontyTheClipArtMongoose
boebert is a moron. she’s a barely literate high school dropout with a ged. or, as chris rock posited it, a good enough diploma.
lolo is just the consolation prize for rilmurica that never got sen. palin ( r – az ) — be it bristol or sarah.
Joe Falco
Are there any locals there that are seeing any TV, radio, web, etc. ads that criticize Boebert and wherever her opposition hurts the local steel industry as mentioned above? I’m seeing TV ads in the Atlanta area funded by interest groups piling on the Coca-Cola CEO for belatedly criticizing the GA GOP’s voter suppression law. I mean, is there any reason why Dem-aligned interest groups can’t do the same to soften up Boebert and define her to voters early?
Quicksand
Say that five times fast!
waspuppet
I would bet a nontrivial amount of money that she doesn’t know that. She really, really doesn’t know anything.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I saw a piece last week from a CO outlet (not the Denver Post, I can’t remember the name) that interviewed what they called soft Boebert voters. They were ‘soft’ because they thought she was nuts, but almost to a one after saying she was nuts they said “but she’s strong on the Second Amendment”
WaterGirl
Oh my god, Boebert wants to be Katie Porter or OAC! But she’s too dumb to know that you can’t do that without doing your homework in advance. Boebert is totally without substance.
anonymous expat
IGNORE ME
MontyTheClipArtMongoose
@WaterGirl: to be fair, no one should want to be porter, ocasio-cortez, *** or *** boebert.
useless scolds the lot of them.
Joe Falco
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Great. Soften them up some more by asking what good their Swiss Army knives of freedom are going to do for them when the steel plant is shuttered and people out of jobs because Boebert and Republicans want to nix Biden and the Democrats’ infrastructure plans.
smith
Unfortunately, the fact that she’s a moron is to many R voters a feature, not a bug. A lot of these Goobers deeply resent anyone who is demonstrably smarter than they are. If intelligence were a criterion we would not see the likes of Gohmert, Tuberville, or Ron Johnson in office.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl:
But unfortunately, Katie Porter sometimes sounds like this to me. The whole “reclaiming my time” thing is an annoying shtick.
Ohio Mom
I see a member of the US House who can’t be bothered to comport herself with the dignity that her position deserves — wearing casual clothes and participating from a bar, really?Like she’s just stepping away from the truly essential work of going over next week’s food orders with the cook — and someone shrieking an inane talking point — “Ceding the border to the cartels” — that like all sound bites, reduces a complex set of issues into gibberish. Someone who can’t manage a real interchange with an expert.
But maybe enough of her constituents and fans see a down-to-Earth working woman who isn’t cowed by those puffed-up Washington big-wigs, who knows the most important thing she can do is protect us from Brown criminals, sparring with a Black no-doubt-affirmative-action-hire who is too rude and arrogant to deign to answer a white woman as she should.
It’s embarrasing to have to share a country with the likes of Boebert.
ian
That map is 2010-2020. Colorado is gaining 1 congressional seat, to be drawn up by Colorado’s bipartisan redistricting commision. The new district is likely to be metro Denver or Northern Colorado, but either way it will push Front Range voters into the old 3rd (Boeberts current district). She will be in a redrawn, more Democratic district in 2022.
germy
@zhena gogolia:
The “reclaiming my time” thing started IIRC during the Trump administration, when people like Sessions and Barr would try to drag out their answers without actually answering anything. Democrats were rightfully trying to keep them on point.
Boebert instead is just using it to repeat her newsmax talking point.
germy
That’s how we interpret it. The “conservative” outlets will say “Boebert was smart and aggressive in her questioning of the flustered and confused acting budget director.”
germy
Christian group tied to Justice Amy Coney Barrett faces reckoning over sexual misconduct
Too late, Libs. She’s in for life.
WaterGirl
@MontyTheClipArtMongoose: Sexist much?
I don’t know what you are talking about. In terms of questioning, AOC and Katie Porter run circles around most of their cohorts
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: Katie Porter’s questions contain actual information, and facts and figures. They are not inflammatory accusations with no basis in fact.
WaterGirl
@germy: Yeah. From my perspective, there’s no similarity at all between those two people.
H.E.Wolf
A companion article on Boebert, comparing/contrasting her situation to Sinema’s, from today’s ElectoralVote blog:
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2021/Pres/Maps/Jun11.html#item-5
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl:
This is our old argument. It looks that way to us, but to squishy Dems and independents it looks hectoring.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@MontyTheClipArtMongoose: I’d avoid the use of the word “scold” when referring to outspoken humans of the female persuasion – but I actively try not to channel the misogyny of our culture when I’m opining.
Skepticat
This is so dismaying, utterly, painfully true.
WaterGirl
@H.E.Wolf: I haven’t thought of them since about a week after the election. Since you linked to them, I take it that you are still finding them to be a relevant site. Good site or great site, would you say?
piratedan
my thought would be to cede nothing. Yeah, some places may not be “winnable”, but you challenge them all, you get all of the accusations and perfidy out there into the airwaves, you start showing receipts. That’s the only way to start making headway as a country, you can’t just simply write off huge swaths without some kind of effort. We are either a national party working for the betterment of the nation (even the idiots) or we end up devolving into what they claim we are, catering to the folks in the cities (even though its not true, it will be presented that way).
I would enjoy seeing the defeat of some of the idiots but we need to support grass roots organizations and voter registration everywhere.
Shakti
@germy: Disgusting. But how would this information have kept Covid Bortion off SCOTUS? Kavanaugh assaulted at least one woman and he’s on the court, probably complaining to Thomas about his Senate confirmation until the end of time.
This is why I don’t understand these clowns with D (s) after their name who want to keep the filibuster. Don’t they actually want to do anything in the limited time we have?
Michael Cain
@ian:
With the eighth seat and what we know from prior year population estimates, here’s my guess at how the new districts look. It looks like the target population per district will be right around 745,000.
Denver is almost big enough to be a district. Tradition and the “preserve communities of interest” directive make Denver plus a bit of one of the suburban counties south or west will be a district.
El Paso County (Colorado Springs) is also nearly big enough to be a district. Tradition and “minimize splitting counties” will make El Paso plus some nearby areas a district.
At the north end of the Front Range corridor, Larimer plus Weld Counties, plus Longmont (split across Boulder and Weld Counties already) is big enough to be a district.
Metro Denver overall is going to come in at or just over 3.0 million. Take out the Denver district and there’s three suburban districts in the surrounding collar.
The vast hinterlands outside the Front Range get the last two districts. Mountain counties currently not in Boebert’s western slope go there. Pueblo goes with the eastern plains district to make the numbers add up.
MontyTheClipArtMongoose
@WaterGirl:
MontyTheClipArtMongoose
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: to be fair, i would also class wm. bennett, ari fleischer, & marco rubio as scolds. manchin, too.
Ten Bears
Might not be the best headline …
germy
it wouldn’t have mattered, you’re right. It would have been nice to see her formulate some answers while questioned about it during her hearing, though.
Geminid
@waspuppet: Besides steel for railroad contruction, the Pueblo plant will be turning out plenty of rebar and girder steel for highway construction funded by the Biden infrastructure initiative.
Ocotillo
Not so sure, probably would still win in that CD.
Mo MacArbie
@WaterGirl: I have no dog in this fight, but I’m loving how my hair stood up when you threw down the catcake. You didn’t full-on brandish it but just let your coat swing open enough to show that you were packing catcake, and you weren’t afraid to hear how delicious it was.
Wag
As a lifelong Coloradan, with roots in Pueblo (my mothers hometown), as well as a former resident of the western slope, I’d like to weigh in. Pablo faces some ongoing challenges. The steel mills, which used to be incredibly productive, or a shadow of their former self. That said, there are other industries in Pueblo that can benefit from the current administration. Vestas, The maker of large wind turbine generators, has a large plant in Pueblo. The next few years will be interesting in Pueblo County.
As far as potential Democratic candidates to take on Boebert, my favorite is Kerry Donovan. Donovan comes from a generations old western slope family, with long time ranching roots. She also has served in county government in Eagle County, as well as the Colorado legislature, where she is the President Pro Tem, and is a bright and energetic woman. If anyone can beat Bobert, it would be Donovan.
Amir Khalid
@zhena gogolia:
I thought it was a procedural thing. As in, Boebert is allocated a brief period to ask her questions; and if a witness is being willfully unresponsive she gets to reclaim the time and… I dunno, ask again and get more willful unresponsiveness? But Boebert obviously wasn’t seeking a factual answer from Young, she was looking for an argument. Isn’t the speaker supposed to shut that kind of nonsense down?
Amir Khalid
@anonymous expat:
Okay.
ian
@Michael Cain: If I read your assessment right, that puts Boulder into Boeberts district.
Betty
@WaterGirl: I don’t get the Katie hate on here. She does her homework and asks good questions.
joel hanes
@MontyTheClipArtMongoose:
Ari Fleischer and Marco Rubio are _lying_ scolds.
I know you’re talking about affect, and I see what you’re getting at, but …
joel hanes
@Betty:
IMHO, our clip-art friend is talking about pure optics, affect — how the person “comes across” to an observer with no knowledge of nor stake in the substance of the claims made.
Feelings, not facts.
joel hanes
@Wag:
If anyone can beat Bobert, it would be Donovan.
I made a modest donation to Donovan’s campaign the first day I was aware of it.
Early money is like yeast
Wag
@joel hanes: agree 100%. I’ve donated as well. I hope that she ends up on DougJ’s radar.
WaterGirl
@Mo MacArbie: You made me laugh.
Yes, that is exactly what I was going for.
WaterGirl
@joel hanes: Speaking of donations and early money, the folks from Voces de la Frontera Action will be here for a Q & A with us this coming Wedesday at 7:30 blog time
So if anyone is interested, please mark your calendars.
Urban Suburbanite
@Ohio Mom: There was an interview with AOC last year where she was arguing economic policy while mixing margaritas. The difference is that Boebert is painfully stupid.
Michael Cain
@ian:
No, I think Boulder County (at least all of the part down on the flat) will be in the three-district collar around Denver.
What the redistricting commission has to deal with is ~75% of the state’s population (ie, six of eight districts worth) live in a strip 25 miles on either side of I-25, running from a bit north of Fort Collins down through El Paso County. ~50% (four of eight) live in that strip but from about Longmont to Parker. If the commission is going to give rural Colorado much of any representation, they’ve got to chop things up along the lines I’ve suggested.
Uncle Omar
@Michael Cain: I live in Western CO and the population here is booming with boomers moving from California–selling small homes for a fortune and buying McMansions or patio lock-and-leaves–and they are in the “escaping the liberal disaster that is California” cohort. The other part of the influx is retirees moving from the Front Range to Grand Junction and Montrose in order to escape the “Democrat disaster” that is the Front Range. Cutting Pueblo out of the 3rd District will probably ensure that Boebert or some other Republican will be the Congresscritter from here forever.
Miss Bianca
Way late to this thread, but as someone who lives in Boebert’s district, just want to point out that the Colorado Democratic Party has made flipping CD-3 its top priority for 2022. I will have to talk to Doug J about putting up a thermometer for jackals to contribute!
Geminid
@Miss Bianca: Go Colorado Democratic Party!