I’m trying to do a somewhat rational risk assessment of the Delta variant as someone living in an area where 80+% of the eligible population in my zip code have been fully vaccinated, 65% in my county have had a first dose, and 55% are fully vaccinated.
Apparently, around 10% of the US infections are Delta, while the UK finds that 90% of their cases are Delta. The UK’s full vaccination rate, on the whole, is approximately the same as the US (44%), and they are not going to leave lockdown on June 21 due to the spread of the Delta variant.
Dr. Fauci believes that the mRNA vaccines are about 88% effective against Delta if you’ve taken both doses, but only 33% after one dose. No study has been done on the J&J vaccines, though only a small percentage of those vaccinated in my area have gotten J&J.
We’ve basically ended precautions here, except for medical facilities. Mask wearing has gone from almost universal a month ago, to maybe 25% in stores today. Restaurant staff and patrons also are unmasked for the most part. Who knows if any of the unvaccinated are unmasked, but presumably most of them are.
I ate indoors yesterday and felt pretty comfortable being there with my wife, since both of us have been vaccinated with mRNA vaccines. But I’m going to re-evaluate that as Delta grows in our area. I expect that Delta will surge through states with lower vaccination rates, and their hospitals will start to fill up again. I just don’t know if New York, which has 60% of the 18+ population vaccinated, and 49% of the total population, will be able to fight off Delta, since our vaccination rates are currently piddling away.
The other complication is that the real defense against COVID is everyone wearing a mask. If I think Delta is an issue, I’ll probably go back to using a N-95 mask, which will be a depressing step backwards.
Here’s a thread to discuss your current view of the situation.
R-Jud
Over here in the original Birmingham I’m just waiting to see what the Haunted Haircut has to say. I’m a week past my second AstraZeneca dose, which I’ve just seen appears to be 60% effective against the Delta variant according to some new info in the Lancet.
So that’s still quite effective.
Old School
Anne Laurie’s COVID Update had an item that speculated that Delta will cause a spike in the U.S. by fall. Since my children aren’t old enough for vaccines yet, this worries me about what the start of school will bring, since virtual schooling will probably be mostly nonexistent.
swiftfox
I’ve been using the Covid Act Now per person infection rate to assess personal safety. Most of the counties in northern MD are around 0.60, much better than the 0.90 or above. If it starts moving above 0.80 it will be back to masks.
Dagaetch
As someone who got the J&J shot for no reason other than because it was what I was given, I’m a little bit frustrated at the lack of information (reassurance?) re effectiveness on the variants. I still don’t consider my lifestyle super high risk, and I live in a reasonably blue/smart area (62% vaccinated), but I’d either like some confirmation that I’ll be okay, or permission to go ahead and get the mRNA vaccine as well, or something.
VOR
I don’t know how to embed tweets so I’m just going to post the text. Dr. Peter Hotez says:
The level of mask using in my area has dropped precipitously. I still wear a mask when going to the store, but I keep seeing more and more people not wearing a mask.
Lapassionara
We were doing well here in St Louis county, but our case rate is rising again, which is worrisome. One of our large grocery store chains has given fully vaccinated employees permission to remove their masks. Since I have a compromised immune system, I will likely continue to wear a mask for a while.
ETA, we don’t have enough people vaccinated. Not sure all the reasons why, but having a Republican governor did not help.
Timurid
@Old School: The crisis will be mid and late summer. The big anti-vax states are in the Sunbelt, where seasonality is inverted (everyone goes inside in the summer heat). Those states will likely be at or near herd immunity by fall/early winter, albeit by much more painful means than necessary.
pacem appellant
California is set to open tomorrow, and I’m nervous as all juck. We have one unvaccinated minor in our household (everyone else is vaccinated). We will continue to wear masks. Santa Clara County has had a high mask compliance rate. I am curious to see (and ready to be disappointed) what happens tomorrow.
MattF
Here’s a Twitter thread on the risk associated with the Delta variant. Bottom line seems to be that if you’re vaccinated and live in a high-vacc community, your risk is low. And, for chuckles, here’s the graph of percent vaccinated vs. Biden margin.
Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix
@pacem appellant: If your part of California is like my part of New York, the change in masking and caution will be gradual not immediate.
Ohio Mom
I think it’s around 46% vaccinated here in southwest Ohio; mask mandates are gone but health care facilities and public transport can still require them.
It didn’t take me long to adjust to being maskless. I’m not taking down the decorative hooks holding the mask collection, though.
It’s conveniently located next to the door to the garage and removing it would leave holes in a wall we no longer have touch-up paint for.
Plus, I’m not convinced we won’t need to put them back on. If it’s not one variant, it will be another. So my thinking is very much like mistermix’s.
dr. bloor
Perception in RI is that it’s pretty much ovah–transmission rate is .66 or so, running average of percent positive is 0.5, >70% adults fully vaxxed. Masks were already starting to fall around Memorial Day, and most places are using the honor system about wearing a mask inside. I’m keeping an eye on the vax resistance and lethality of variants as my personal criteria. Delta doesn’t concern me very much at this point.
SFBayAreaGal
I will still be wearing my mask while shopping, and around large groups of people. I won’t be going to a theater or eat in a restaurant for a long time.
smith
Something may be changing, whether spread of Delta or something else. The rapid downward trend in cases nationwide stalled about 9 days ago. A few days back I did a comparison of states with high vs low vaccination rates and found, not surprisingly, that case rates were higher in the low-vax states, and there is some indication that rates are climbing there while they are still declining in high-vax states. You can see a reflection of this here, where you can set the graph for US census regions. The Northeast, the highest-vaxxed region, has the lowest case rate that is still declining, while the South, with the lowest vax rate, has stalled in case rate decline and is perhaps starting to go up. On the other hand, hospitalizations and deaths are still declining, so it may be too early to get overly concerned.
dr. bloor
@MattF:
Good Lord. If that graph ever came across my desk in a paper for review, I’d start asking pointed questions about doctored data.
MattF
@Dagaetch: In fact, the J&J vaccine testing was in countries with more prevalence of variants than the testing of other vaccines. However, it’s still mostly a big question mark. If it turned out that J&J vaccine recipients were hospitalized more often (i.e., ever), I think that would be seen pretty quickly. The current situation is that hospitalizations appear to be limited to the unvaccinated.
pacem appellant
@Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix: Ye gods I hope so. My work offices don’t open until October, so I can stay hunkered down until Pfizer is available for the under-twelves if I need to.
Falling Diphthong
@Timurid: For all the talk of herd immunity, Trump (and Mrs Trump, who is not elderly, obese, etc) got vaxxed in January. Three months after they both achieved herd immunity. So I am doubtful how useful “if you got one version of this disease you’re immune to all the others” is a guide, for all that that’s certainly how I understood the invention of vaccines back when that was a more abstract thing to know about.
Agree on seasonality in the South.
Soprano2
Since I had the Pfizer and am fully vaccinated, I’m not worried for myself about the Delta variant, since it’s still protective of serious illness and death. I’m honestly not worried about what would happen if I got it, since I figure it would be mild or even asymptomatic, and I don’t have any unvaccinated family members to worry about infecting, plus what has been seen so far is that vaccinated people who do happen to contract Covid have such a lot viral load that they don’t seem to infect others. I have unvaccinated co-workers who are a lot more likely to get it from each other and their families than from me. I remarked to one guy who was moving his desk station, “I guess they’re trying to separate the unvaccinated people so y’all don’t kill each other”. Tomorrow I’m going to put up the article from last Wednesday’s local paper where a hospital spokesman says everyone in the hospital now with Covid is unvaccinated, the people getting newly-infected are all unvaccinated, and the new Delta variant is much more contagious and is infecting younger people so he can no longer say that being young protects you from serious illness or death from Covid. (This is something I’ve heard from one co-worker, that his doctor told him that since he’s young and healthy he doesn’t need to be vaccinated. I told him he needs to get a new doctor!
Honestly at this point the only unvaccinated people I still worry about are children under 11 and the immunocompromised – all the others have had plenty of time to get vaccinated, so they’re choosing their fate.
Nicole
Anne Laurie, I think, put a link in one of her Covid posts to the New York article about what was up with the Yankees breakthroughs. What stuck out to me, in the interview with the expert, was his belief that those of us vaccinated should not be “too” tentative about going out unmasked, as, while it’s possible we might pick up one of the new variants, they aren’t different enough from what the vaccines were developed for to make us severely ill- in effect, they’re giving us a free booster. And by getting a variant and killing it off without too much difficulty, we then become one less potential vector as the virus continues to evolve farther away from its original form.
That said, I’m mostly unmasked outdoors, but almost always masked indoors, because it’s become such a habit. So that’s not all that conducive to exposing myself to a variant. Also most of the NYC stores are still requiring masks. One of our favorite local bars has a sign on the door letting vaccinated people know they are welcome to sit indoors, and unvaccinated are welcome to sit outdoors and that puts me in a conundrum, because I still prefer to sit outdoors when I can, but I don’t want passersby to think I didn’t do my civic duty and get the shot!
Mai Naem mobile
I was at a wholesale construction related business last week. I am guessing there were around 20 people there(staff and customers.) I was the only one masking. Also was at a QT and masking was probably 50/50. I would like to know how they figure County wide vaccine rates. I know three people who left Maricopa County early on to get vaccinated in neighboring counties because there was a shortage in Maricopa County. I would like to know if that counted as a Maricopa County shot or the other County shot
PeakVT
Vermont is now at over 80% eligible (12+) with 1 shot, so basically all restrictions have been lifted. I’m not too worried but I will be wearing a mask into retail facilities for another few weeks until I see what the post-restriction trends are. I’ve been fully vaccinated for several weeks with the Pfizer jab.
Dagaetch
@MattF: Yeah, my instincts are basically saying that if the J&J shot isn’t as effective on the variants, we’ll find out pretty quickly. And even if it’s not as great and I catch it, I’m sure the vaccine will keep me alive and likely out of the hospital. Mostly it’s just the lack of information – every single article that talks about the variants says something like “Moderna/Pfizer vaccines still highly effective”, and doesn’t mention the J&J. I just want some reassurance! LOL. And I figure we’ll all be getting booster shots next year anyway.
jl
Response to risk is easy, though. Fully vaccinate globe asap.
It’s a bargain, at most a one or two 100 $billion to high income countries to save trillions, half of which falls on the high income countries themselves. AL had a nice link to that analysis a few days ago in her covid reports.
Another Scott
@Dagaetch: STATNews is a good place for summaries like that.
E.g. Comparing the vaccines (last updated in April).
Variants make vaccinations even more crucial (which doesn’t mention J&J specifically) – from June 10.
At this point, the brand of vaccine matters much less than being fully vaccinated.
HTH.
Steeplejack
@swiftfox:
Useful site.
My county (Fairfax in VA) is at 0.43, which is good. I live on the eastern edge, next to Arlington County, which is at 0.73. But my particular town, Falls Church, is at 1.00. Not sure why it’s higher. All three are “low” risk, but worth keeping an eye on.
RaflW
About a month ago I said to a friend that I wanted to do some fun things like local travel, attend some parties, etc while we’re in this moment, because I suspected one variant or another (+ our wantonly anti-social GOP and their pig-ignorant followers) would fk things up by fall.
I may have been optimistic.
TomatoQueen
J & J household, my town around 50 percent vaccinated fully and 48 partial (slow and steady after major shortages of doses for months). If we’re going somewhere, we mask, if we stay home we don’t. I never go anywhere if I can avoid it, but have caught severe colds twice since vaccination (making hunting for Merlin impossible); I am the oldest of the group and have comorbidities that the 3 others don’t. My Young Man is back at his day program, fully masked and distanced and wazoo’d, and he seems to be fine (this can always blow up in my face so hesitate to type it). There is a lot of local frowning over J & J because of the disaster at the Baltimore factory, but yet not a lot of discussion about J & J otherwise. Now I have a headache.
Low Key Swagger
I’ve been in three states in the past two weeks. Interestingly…In Kentucky, North Carolina and here in Tennessee it seems to be the elderly and POC wearing masks. Not sure what that says.
trollhattan
@pacem appellant:
Yeah, my California county has effectively stalled with new vaccines (compared to April) and 42.3% of eligible residents are fully vaccinated. Unacceptable, and no idea how it’s being addressed while we’re supposedly “opening” tomorrow.
OTOH California has a ginormous “fuck you” to everybody who says California has a failed economy and hey, let’s get rid of the governor and find a Republican to straighten things out.
StringOnAStick
Here in Central Oregon in a blue town on the edge of crazy red, mask use depends on the store it seems. The organic grocery is still masking and until we hit 70% vaccinated, that’s supposed to be true everywhere still I think. I started noticing last week behalf the Lowe’s employees and shoppers are no longer bothering to cover their noses.
Outdoors I’m not wearing a mask, and I’ve noted that people have internalized greater distance from each other when talking outdoors. My weakened hearing is getting a workout but at least I can see their mouths now and that really helps my comprehension. I’m comfortable wearing a mask to shop forever, but I worry about encountering a belligerent local R crazy yahoo, and likely armed, spoiling for a confrontation. That bothers me.
JoyceH
@Timurid:
That pre-positions the victim population to the virus’ advantage, but I seem to recall a doctor on television saying that coronaviruses are at their best in cold and dry conditions. So it will be interesting to see which consideration wins out. That surge last summer looked enormous – until you compare it to the winter surge that followed.
Uncle Omar
My Western Colorado county is seeing a serious upsurge in cases, many of which are the Delta variant. Our shitferbrainz County Commissioners got rid of silly mask requirements last month when the State did. The State based its decision on the vax rate on the Front Range and assumed without research that the whole state was on the same page. But, since we are a strong Trump county our folks don’t believe in no silly science. Mrs Omar and I are fully Pfizered and have been for several months, but we still take precautions, i.e. fully masked in indoor public spaces. My take on all of this is if you go into a store or other indoor facility and you are the only one wearing a mask and the rest of the folks give you the side-eye, it’s probably a good idea to be wearing a mask because reasons.
SFBayAreaGal
Original version of Delta Dawn written and sang by Alex Harvey:
https://youtu.be/5g3I6oVLecg
Tanya Tucker:
https://youtu.be/GClZv7IwtYc
Helen Reddy:
https://youtu.be/fzb7a1T4c1k
The Divine Miss M
https://youtu.be/qt-hFrYRKgY
Matt McIrvin
@StringOnAStick: I still see a lot of people going around saying “I’ve had COVID, everyone I know has had COVID, it’s just the sniffles, if you’re healthy you’ll be fine.” Always that implication that if you do get seriously ill there must have been something wrong with you. One of them identified himself as from Oregon, presumably the deep-red part.
Ken
I’m waiting for the conspiracy theories about why the virus is only affecting the unvaccinated.
Obviously on the face of it that’s a remarkably stupid question, but my opinion of humanity’s net intelligence has been revised over the past few years.
dmsilev
@jl:
Yeah. That’s one reason why the news today of Novavax’s larger trial being highly effective is good. We don’t need that vaccine here in the US; our problems are on the demand side. But, that’s a vaccine which is easier to manufacture and to store than the mRNAs while still being every bit as effective. That will help the global effort, a lot.
Benw
@SFBayAreaGal: love Tanya’s take, but it was Helen Reddy’s oversung (IMO) version that took it to #1!
dmsilev
@Ken: Obviously, it’s because the virus doesn’t like magnets. Now, can I interest you in purchasing my anti-virus magnetic necklace?
Steeplejack
@JoyceH:
Air-conditioned spaces tend to be cold and dry. Just a thought.
smith
@Ken: Last year, wasn’t there talk among the Goobers about how suspicious it was that more Republicans were catching covid than Democrats?
DB11
So far here in Quebec the Delta incidence is low and our vaccination rate is high: 69% of the total population have at least 1 dose with over 90% for those over 60, plus they started vaccinating 12-19 year-olds this month.
I’m keeping an eye on the Delta spread since I have to decide whether to take a second AZ jab after 8 weeks vs. a Pfizer jab after 16 weeks. I would prefer the mRNA for the second dose and the data has shown a stronger immune response to hybrid vaccinations and to extended interval.
But the Delta data coming in also shows an even more marked difference between 1 and 2 dose vaccinated, and given the increased transmissibility and CFR, if Delta catches on more quickly here I may accede to the earlier AZ 2nd jab.
Also following closely as more data comes in on the comparative effectiveness of the different vaccines/protocols vs. Delta. I do think that we’re going to have another wave, though
likelyhopefully not as big. We’re lucky here as there’s very little vaccine hesitancy and after a slow initial start phase, the vaccination program has ramped up to full speed.ETA: Procuring sufficient supply was a big issue early on as a non-producing country, but in the meantime we’ve procured all the vaccines we’ll need — and have committed (during the G7) to donate 100m doses to developing countries. The supply constraints are why we went with the 1 dose strategy (lengthening dose interval to immunize the maximum number of people with 1st dose to slow community spread), which was definitely the right approach under the circumstances.
Now that we’re not supply constrained, provinces are moving up the 2nd dose schedules to try to win the race against the Delta variant spread.
Ken
@smith: That is, indeed, one of the reasons for my recent re-calibration of my opinion of human intelligence.
James E Powell
@Matt McIrvin:
This is the core right-wing belief as to all bad outcomes. Sick? You don’t live right. Out of work? You didn’t get the right training/education or you’re just lazy. Shot by the cops at a traffic stop? You shouldn’t have an air freshener.
ellenr
Here’s the least inflammatory yet best informed of the Covid webcasts. Osterholm, MN Center for infectious disease research (CIDRAP).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYNfScnnDVU
narya
I was masked indoors when we traveled, except when we were actually eating (which only occurred 2 times), always at the stores even when not required. I was at two venues this weekend where masking was completely NOT happening, but also would have been hard to manage–two bars, essentially, one was post-5k. I wasn’t completely comfortable, tbh, but kept reminding myself that I’ve been vaxxed. When we travel this week, there will be people from around the globe, though (a) every event is outside and (b) everyone at the campsite is fully vaxxed. I am likely to wear one at least some of the time (in crowds, if there are any, or inside any place). I’d feel differently, I think, if this wasn’t 99% outdoors with lots of space, and I’m still not 100% comfortable.
Mallard Filmore
@Timurid:
Not this week. The heat dome over the south west goes clear up to North Dakota. It is 90s up there now.
Hoppie
Still most everybody masked when I left San Diego Saturday. Of course all masked up at the airports and on the airline. I’d say about half masking in Lexington (KY) and I was the only one even partly masked at outdoor restaurant seating in Paris (KY) this afternoon. Seems to confirm everything we read.
featheredsprite
Washington state. Two-person household, both vulnerable for different reasons. We are careful about masks and distance.
It looks like children are not protected from Delta. That is worrisome.
Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.)
Anybody know anything about fixing bikes? My daughter’s bike has a wobbly pedal, and I can’t find anything on the intertubes about how to fix it. Everything I’ve found is for when the axle is loose, but her problem is that the arm is loose on the axle. Any tips (pro or otherwise)?
JMG
The rule for our Cape Cod town is if unvaccinated, wear a mask, indoors and out. If vaccinated, you need not. Pretty much every permanent resident is vaccinated, and has been for some time (so many olds like me). But it’s the start of the tourist season, and we’re seeing people we don’t for 9 months of the year, like people in their 20s. Many of those young folks were wearing masks downtown (three blocks worth) on a rainy crowded Saturday afternoon. I feel safe here, carry my mask but seldom use it. Next month though, I have to fly to Ohio for a wedding. I may not take it off even when sleeping there.
Another Scott
@Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.): Ruckus is your man. But it may depend on the bike. I replaced the pedals on my bike with ones that accept shoes with clips on the soles. The originals just unscrewed from the “arms” (I don’t recall the proper name).
HTH a little.
Cheers,
Scott.
BruceFromOhio
Unless I’m with my vax’d tribe, until Ohio’s rates improve*, the masks stay on in public. I’m on a return-to-work trial two days this week and two days next, with more days TBD, and I’ll be masking there, too.
*Less than 50 new cases per day on a 21 day average (first link), or 70% overall vax rate (second link).
@Ken: This, Gaia save us all.
debit
@Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.): First, check to see if it’s coming unscrewed from the crank. If so, it will have to be tightened according to which side it’s on: Right pedals tighten by turning clockwise, left pedals tighten counter-clockwise.
Forgive me, but if it’s a big box bike, the pedals themselves may be coming apart and should be replaced.
ETA: Unless by arm you mean the crank and that it’s wobbling on the bottom bracket? (The bottom bracket is at the base of frame, the round housing with a spindle coming out of either side to hold the cranks on.) If so, that’s probably best left to a bike shop. Unless you want to buy some specialized tools.
Matt McIrvin
@Ken:
They just claim that’s not true, and talk up the cases of breakthrough infections–which do exist–as proving the vaccine doesn’t work. It’s effective because people mostly don’t think in terms of statistics.
Soprano2
It’ll be more like “Why are all the sick people Republicans? It’s a conspiracy, I tell ya!”
BruceFromOhio
@JMG:
OK, it’s not that great, but it’s not that bad, either. If you’re solo or with your vax’d peeps, you’re fine. The airline and airport say keep it on at all times, and it’s a good idea in any public place with doors and a roof. Travel safe!
PeakVT
@Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.): If the whole crank is wobbling on both sides then the bottom bracket (where the crank goes through the bicycle) possibly has issues. If one side is wobbling it might be a multi-piece crank with one side that needs tightening.
Cheryl Rofer
A burgeoning scandal
Cheryl Rofer
Santa Fe still requires masks in stores, and people comply.
PeakVT
@Cheryl Rofer: I saw you were quoted by CNN on the Taishan NPP situation.
trollhattan
@Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.): @PeakVT:
Agreed, w/o knowing the crank and bottom bracket design it’s hard to narrow down.
Big kid bike, little kid bike, dept store bike, bike store bike?
If crank arms have dust caps, remove that and see if a bolt has worked lose. That’s where I’d begin.
raven
I had my pre-op appointment this morning and everyone was masked up. I hope I don’t have to wear one in the recovery room!
trollhattan
@Cheryl Rofer:
American hours or metric hours? Those get confused easily.
Ksmiami
@James E Powell: That’s the funny thing about Rightwingers- their moral code is so repulsive that when you turn it back on them, they get so outraged… They expect liberals to just grin and take it and still be nice to them, when now, in actuality, I’ll be happy if more of them succumb to Darwinism…
Ken
@Cheryl Rofer: Wrapping up the last-minute addition of Belarus and Kazakhstan to NATO?
Mike in NC
Most places in SE North Carolina no longer require masks, but I went to my doctor to renew a couple prescriptions and all staff and patients had to wear them.
germy
“Several family members also had symptoms.”
Old School
To the surprise of no one.
smith
@germy: Obviously he stood too close to someone who was vaccinated.
BruceFromOhio
@Old School: Okay, sure, but Senator Feinstein doesn’t think democracy is in jeopardy, so everything is fine.
WaterGirl
@James E Powell: Twas ever thus. You are raped? You shouldn’t have left your window open!
I swear that this is because everyone wants to find a way to blame the person so they don’t acknowledge that they are actually at risk themselves.
Spanky
@Old School: Mitch will tell you that the 2024 election cycle has already started. Did not tfg file with the FEC last year?
Mel
@MattF: There have been some symptomatic breakthrough infections and a very few resultant deaths from a those breakthrough infections in vaccinated populations. The percentage is extremely small, and the vaccines are amazingly effective in most cases, but it does still happen. It’s important to bear in mind that although the risk of transmission by a vaccinated infected person is very low, it is not zero risk.
My biggest concerns are
a) whether symptomatic breakthrough infections can still cause Long Covid (which has occurred even in otherwise previously healthy people who had mild or severe cases), and
b) the research out of Johns Hopkins which pretty clearly illustrates that immunosuppressed / immunocompromised people frequently have a significantly less robust response to the vaccines (including mRNA) vaccines.
That’s not surprising in and of itself, but what is most worrisome is that many were unable to generate ANY antibody response at all. So, even if a person who is not immunocompetent has been fully vaccinated, there is a real risk that they will contract Covid and be unable to mount an sufficient antibody response if exposed to infected unvaccinated people or even to some fully vaccinated people with undetectable or mild breakthrough infections.
It’s easy if there is nobody in one’s immediate orbit who is immunocompromised to write those people off as seemingly a very small group, but the reality is that it’s a fairly substantial number of people when you consider that chemo patients, many cancer survivors, HIV positive people, people with immune deficiencies like selective (IgA) immune deficiency or other globulin related deficiency syndromes, ( I think it was geg6 who mentioned a friend and former coworker who is struggling with an immunodeficiency syndrome – thanks to geg6 and her friend for reminding us of the very human reality behind the numbers. I am walking that path, too, and it is a scary path) organ transplant recipients, graft recipients, burn victims, COPD sufferers, people with any number of autoimmune or allergic issues (rheumatoid arthritis, eczema, psoriasis, asthma, etc.), lupus, vasculitis, Sogren’s, IBD, Chrohn’s – the list goes on) can all fall into this category.
That’s a lot of precious lives, a lot of people who are someone’s everything, still at significant risk, here and around the world.
I don’t know the solution to that problem, but I can say for sure that every person I see wearing a mask indoors in public places is a hero to me.
I can’t seem to get the relevant articles linked, so I’ll go pull the numbers and try to post them below before too long.
WaterGirl
@Cheryl Rofer: Oh. My God. //
Have these people EVER held a real job in their entire lives?
Martin
My county sent out a somewhat urgent request that people get vaccinated due to Delta. Hospitalizations in counties with low vaccination rates are going up. I’m wondering if CA’s reopen schedule is about to get altered.
Cermet
The delta variant will just further enhance the age of stupid; the innocent’s are screwed thanks to the goofer party and their thugs.
NotMax
@Old School
“Vote for us. We promise not to do the job.”
//
Benw
I am DYING for approval down below 12 yo so that my youngest can get vaccinated this summer, before school, but the earliest date I’ve seen suggested is approval by Thankgiving. Argh!
Gravenstone
@Cheryl Rofer: Gee, it’s almost as if NATO (1) had something important to talk about and (2) has 4+ years of catching up to do. Granted, the principals won’t be dealing directly much with (2) at this session, but c’mon man (to quote the Biden).
Elizabelle
Biden speaking now at press conference
Tuned in to a question from WaPost: roughly: “Allies are still rattled by the attempted insurrection. How can they believe the US anymore?”
Biden started out with “Watch me.”
Falling Diphthong
Anecdotal: In New England. Medical offices and pharmacies are still masked. A few stores still require masks, and people comply and it’s no big deal. Where it’s optional, I’d say it’s very roughly 50/50. A lot of the revised mask signs now are explicitly “Mask optional if fully vaccinated; otherwise mask required” though some use softer language.
The thing is: No one cares. We adapt to the social norms, ask if the bare face is okay when unsure, and even if people are panting along at home to Tucker Carlson’s exhortations to go up to strangers and tell them that their fashion choice makes you uncomfortable–no one actually does that.
Gravenstone
@Old School: Wonder if he would be so staunch in his “defense” of the bench if say, Thomas then Alito succumbed to their actuarial tables? Granted, statistically it’s as likely to be one of the liberal justices, but I can dream.
Old School
@Benw: I know earlier this year, Pfizer said their timeline was request approval for all ages in September. Not sure if they are still on track for that or not.
KrackenJack
@Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.):
Others have probably answered this already. Some pedals allow you to tighten them on the axle. It would likely be a hex nut or bolt on the end of the axle farthest from the bike frame. Can’t go wrong referencing Sheldon Brown on Pedals
Soprano2
I have read that this is a problem sometimes with women on juries in rape trials. These women (not all women, of course!) try hard to figure out what the raped woman did that they would never do, so that they can tell themselves that it couldn’t happen to them. Then, they vote to acquit the man because the woman did “x” that put her in danger, so it’s not actually his fault. It’s crazy, but I think when some women are confronted with the reality of rape their minds recoil so much that they just have to find a way to tell themselves it could never happen to them because they wouldn’t do “x” offending behavior.
Elizabelle
Really good press conference by Biden.
If any of the twitter pants wetters listened, they would realize he gets it, and his words are calm, measured, and reassuring.
He just spoke of Trump’s “fake populism.”
Brachiator
I just don’t see this as a big deal, although I totally understand how others feel differently. Masks and social distancing are small gestures that easily work.
But I guess that some people are looking for that magical “All Clear” signal that things can go back to “normal.” But it’s just not that simple. However, the very good news is that we have ways of understanding and dealing with the virus.
Elizabelle
Just called on “last question.” It’s about Ukraine into NATO, or not?
Biden: depends on whether they meet the criteria; they need to clean up corruption …
JoyceH
Maybe a dumb question. But that NATO logo. Is there something called OTAN, or is that just backwards NATO on the logo?
Ken
@JoyceH: OTAN is French for NATO.
Kay
@Old School:
Pfizer is jamming. My middle son has been at their big facility in Portage MI the last 2 weeks. They had 30 electricians working last Sunday – the end of 7 day work week for him- so they’re willing to pay a lot to get whatever they’re producing out the door.
Jay
As of tomorrow, in BC, travel restrictions between health regions are being lifted. It’s a big deal.
My SWIMBO gets her second on the 16th, me on the 17th, so full immunity by the second week of July.
Wear double masks 10-12 hours a workday, change them every 2 hours, at work, transit, elevators and common areas, shopping. Not gonna stop until Covid is in the rearview mirror, and will put them on again for cold and flu season.
ain’t going into a restaurant, club or a pub, again until Covid is long in the rearview mirror.
we got one pallet of N95’s two weeks ago and they were gone in a day. Corporate still can’t get real N95’s for employee use, even though according to policy, I’m not supposed to take a box down off the shelf with out wearing one.
JoyceH
@Ken: Oh! Cool. I didn’t know that.
Brachiator
@Old School:
We need one of those Roadrunner cartoon Latinisms for McConnell.
Asswipius Maximus
Martin
@Old School: Seeing some arguments that Dems should use this as a justification to appoint a 10th judge to take Breyer’s seat when he retires.
Old School
@Kay:
Good to hear. Of course, applying for approval for the 2-11 age group in September depends of whether the studies are going well too. That’s more of the part of whether their timeline still works that I’m more concerned about.
Brachiator
@germy:
This happens with such regularity that I don’t understand why more dopes don’t get a clue.
TKH
@Mel: The answer to this problem is therapy with monoclonals, Regeneron cocktail and the like. The problem with that is that you have a narrow window in which it will work, about a week after symptom onset. This protectian is likely good for several months.
And there are still many physicians who don’t think of this. On TWIV in the last two clinical updates Dr. Griffin told of two patients in NY (!) who were admitted and developed severe disease who were not offered monoclonals. If this were to happen somewhere in the boonies, I would not be too surprised, but that physicians in a major metropolitan area would not avail themselves of this therapy shocked me.
Orson
@SFBayAreaGal: Same here (Santa Rosa, CA). I’m ready to let people think whatever they want to about me as I continue to wear a mask.
Major Major Major Major
Two-dose mRNA household here. Most everyone I know is vaccinated, and I’m relatively young, so my only concern is for the cat. Who will also be fine, since it would require one of us to get it and then give it to him, both of which are rather unlikely; and then he would have to get seriously ill which is also unlikely.
Delta will doubtless become the dominant strain but almost all of that will be among the unvaccinated, which at this point is pretty much a voluntary lifestyle choice, so… hey, life’s got to resume at some point.
Ken
@Brachiator: You’d think, but the US is a country where cold-calling people about their car’s expiring extended warrantee is a money-making proposition.
Elizabelle
@Martin: If you have any good articles on rebalancing (even packing!) the USSC, bring them on.
I think McConnell is daring Breyer to retire, and quickly. What’s up with that?
Which reminds me: what ever went on with former “justice” Kennedy and his Deutsche Banking son? Got to be some shoe to drop there. Perhaps the end of this summer will be highly entertaining.
Ken
@TKH: Unless something has changed greatly since I last looked at the prices, physicians will only be offering monoclonals to patients with excellent insurance.
Martin
@Ken: Simple rule – all french words are just english words spelled backward without the ‘r’ being pronounced.
Ksmiami
@Brachiator: I don’t really care- do you?
Benw
@Old School: that sounds about right, for November approval, I suppose
Miss Bianca
@Uncle Omar: That sounds like my CO county too. Where are you on the Western Slope? I used to live in Delta (Dawn) County, myself.
Fair Economist
Because B.1.617.2 is far more transmissible, the herd immunity level is much higher than before, probably 80-85%. We aren’t going to get that. The good news is that all the vaccines provide excellent protection against dying. Seattle says 97% of hospitalized patients are unvaxxed, which would indicate about 50-fold reduction in risk.
So I think everybody will get exposed because there won’t be shutdowns with over half the population protected. B.1.617.2 is currently doubling every week, and at that rate we will be back to December levels before September. For the vaccinated, risks aren’t exact but will be in the neighborhood of seasonal flu. So not completely safe, but a level of risk we have lived with all our lives.
For the unvaxxed it will be grim. This will be very unfair to those with immunodeficiencies etc., and for young children if the FDA doesn’t get a move on.
Ksmiami
@Mel: I’m a 2 doser wear masks to indoor activities which are still minimal (getting coffee) do not like or trust most Americans these days
Matt McIrvin
@Major Major Major Major: It sounds to me as if Delta reduces the effectiveness of mRNA vaccines sufficiently that, while the number of fully vaccinated getting seriously ill will still be relatively low, it will be high enough to make it reasonable to take some additional precautions in areas where there is a lot of the variant going around.
That might change if we get a readily accessible Delta-tailored booster.
jonas
Remember that the whole point of masking wasn’t so much to keep *you* from becoming sick, but rather to keep you from unwittingly spreading the virus to others if you were infected but asymptomatic. So if you’re vaccinated, it appears that the chances of you 1. contracting the disease and then 2. having enough of a viral load to spread it to others is very small. If you’ve had both shots, after two weeks, you’re fine. Enjoy life. Right now, the problem is unvaccinated people spreading it to other unvaccinated people, not all of whom have a choice (e.g. due to being immunocompromised, etc.).
Geminid
@Elizabelle: “fake populist” is a nice succinct put down, and could hit trump where it hurts.
I noticed Terry McAuliffe is baiting trump to come to Virginia. “Trump’s scared to come to Virginia,” McAuliffe told a network interviewer. “He knows I’ve beaten him twice.” The last is somewhat of a stretch, as McAullife has only been involved in campaigns where trump lost, like last year’s presidential, or where McAuliffe’s guy ( Ralph Northam) beat trump’s guy. But like I say, McAuliffe is baiting trump. I imagine McAuliffe’s opponent Youngkin would just as soon trump helped him from a distance, but trump craves the spotlight and will be hard to keep away.
Jay
@jonas:
chances of getting covid and then transmitting covid if fully vaxxed are not very small. Very small would be a fraction of a percent, not 8% to 3%.
And Delta is out there amongst the Covidiots.
Elizabelle
@Geminid: Good for Terry Mac.
Tie Trump around Youngkin’s neck, and throw ’em both under a bridge.
Brachiator
From a BBC News story
Do we know how many unvaccinated people were exposed to any strain of Covid-19? Does it matter?
One excuse I keep hearing is “I do not need the vaccine because I was exposed to Covid and so my immunity got built up.” This does not appear to be completely true.
Major Major Major Major
@Jay:
Except that’s not how those numbers work. 99%+ of people with two mRNA doses will not contract (spreadable) COVID, because the figures you cited only apply to people who were sufficiently exposed that they’d have gotten it without the vaccine. My naive pre-vax odds of catching it were around 1:3, for the whole of the last 15 months; nowadays, vaccinated and living in NYC, my odds of getting it are very nearly zero.
jonas
@Jay: That one number doesn’t matter. Here’s the calculus you have to make: If you’re fully vaccinated, what are your chances of contracting covid given 1. the percentage of potentially unvaxxed people you come into close contact with on a daily basis, 2. the chances any one of them could be positive, 3. the chances of actually contracting covid during the encounter, and then 4. the probability of subsequently spreading the infection to another unvaccinated person even when you’re vaxxed. YMMV, but multiply all that together and it’s going to be a pretty damn low number these days in most places/instances. So, let’s say my community has a 40% fully vaccinated rate. Should the chances of all those things occurring concern me more than the chances of getting hit by a car as I’m crossing the street to grab a cup of coffee in the morning?
Frans
@JoyceH: OTAN is the French acronym.
Spanky
Delta’s bad enough, though the mRNA vaccines do a good job protecting from it. My bigger worry is about Epsilon, and Zeta, and Eta, etc. The more infections, the more probability of a nasty mutation. And humans have shown no lack of short-sighted stupidity throughout this pandemic.
This has been your rose-colored-glasses view for today.
Major Major Major Major
@jonas: Jay should be by shortly to explain that he does too know how the numbers work and was trying to make some other point…
sdhays
@jonas: My family’s not going to really relax until my 2 year old son can get vaccinated. If we had 90% of American adults being actually responsible and getting their vaccines, we probably wouldn’t need to worry about him.
But’s that’s not the country we live in. So while we’re relaxing a tiny bit at the margins compared to last year, we’re still wearing masks inside and avoiding crowds. And my son still isn’t going into public buildings, with or without a mask.
TKH
@Ken: 5k for the treatment course is the bargoon of the cecade for the insurance co in comparison t just a week in the emergency room.
Matt McIrvin
Looking at the county-by-county data on https://covidactnow.org explains a LOT about where the hotspots are. Some states that don’t seem to be doing too badly on the whole have some wingnut counties in the hinterlands where vaccination rates are stunningly low, particularly out West.
Matt McIrvin
@Major Major Major Major: Right now, sure, your risk of getting COVID as a vaccinated New Yorker is extremely low. Suppose, though, that Delta turns out to be so transmissible that 70% of the remaining unvaccinated people in the city all get it, and the ambient amount of virus you encounter becomes extremely high. Your risk could actually get up into that few-percent range.
Jay
@jonas:
@Major Major Major Major:
front facing, 4,000 to 8,000 people a day, about 20% who arn’t wearing a mask, or not properly wearing a mask, and almost nobody is maintaining social distancing.
The Vancouver Health/WCB approved Covid Plan is 250 max in the Store, but nobody is counting at the doors, peak is probably 1200 at any one time. Isle 18 is supposed to be limited to 9, I’ve seen 40. Toolroom is ten, but I am the only guy who enforces it out of 6 employees, and you can’t maintain 6 feet of distance in a 4 foot isle.
People are getting sloppy, getting pushy.
Less than a month ago all three Rona’s were closed down by Frasier Health for a wave of covid brought in by customers, that then burned through staff.
There are supposed to be only 2 people in the change room at any one time, which of course, is impossible when a shift change is 40 people.
So my Covid “bubble” since the start has been SWMBO plus the 197 other people I work with, plus their “bubbles”.
Major Major Major Major
@Matt McIrvin: in that unlikely scenario I would of course reevaluate!
J R in WV
@jonas:
No offense intended, but this is terrible advice. As far as I’m concerned, after two doses of Moderna, second one in mid March, I’m still wearing masks everywhere I go out of our rural hollow. There are too many RWNJs out there not wearing masks, and WE NEVER KNOW WHEN THAT GUY WITHOUT A MASK IS BUSY DEVELOPING A BRAND NEW VIRAL VARIANT !!!
So we should all be wearing masks for the next several months at least. I think the CDC has gone crazy, masks are so easy to have and wear, and they do so much to prevent this particular disease from spreading. Call me crazy, I’m still going to wear a mask the vast majority of the time out in public, among people I don’t KNOW are vaccinated.
yellowdog
@Ken: In the UK, among those with the delta variant, people with at least one shot make up one third of hospitalizations and a similar proportion of deaths.