“I think he is resigned to being the leader of an isolated country, a kind of vast North Korea.”
What will Russia’s changing place in the world mean for wealthy members of Putin’s inner circle?
Listen to @ggatehouse on #Ukrainecast on BBC Sounds https://t.co/2dNVvsMHwC pic.twitter.com/uBHY3qgP4Q
— BBC Sounds (@BBCSounds) February 28, 2022
Transcription, of sorts, by the author — International Editor, BBC Newsnight:
A thread on Russia
It will be becoming clear to those around Putin, the first and second tier of ‘siloviki’ (security apparatus), oligarchs and technocrats that make up the ‘greater Kremlin’, that whatever happens with this war,
— Gabriel Gatehouse (@ggatehouse) February 28, 2022
things will never go back to normal under the same leadership: ie Russian politicians who rant and rail against the West at home while at the same time hiding their stolen cash in the West and enjoying their European holidays in their villas in Tuscany and the south of France,
their yachts mooring at exotic destinations around the world, their children getting expensive educations at British private schools. That is over. The potentates and princelings of the greater Kremlin are today contemplating their future and asking themselves:
Do I want to live in a vast replica of North Korea, completely cut off from the rest of the world. I think Putin, if he isn’t too divorced from reality to understand this, has made his choice. He is prepared for total isolation.
To be the leader of a wounded and aggrieved nation in permanent conflict with the rest of the world. There may be a few, especially among the ‘siloviki’ (the most powerful) who are willing to go down this road with him.
But many, I suspect, are not. They like the life they’ve built up over the past two decades of self-enrichment and they will be wondering to themselves: can we somehow maintain any of this? And if so can we do it under our present leader?
If they conclude they can’t, then they face a huge and terrifying choice: to get out (to where?); to go down with the ship; or…. To try to replace the captain. But – and this is the real problem…
Putin’s genius over the past two decades has been to turn himself into the structural institution through which power is exercised in Russia. He is in many ways no longer a person but an institution. The tree trunk that holds all the branches of the greater Kremlin in place.
They will be thinking to themselves: can we remove this tree trunk without bringing the whole structure crashing down? Can we do it quickly and cleanly, without infighting with massively unpredictable consequences?
A very few may be whispering these thoughts very quietly to trusted friends, if they have such things. For they know that to make a move on Putin, you have to succeed. The price of failure is very high indeed.
In Russia, change happens rarely but suddenly. Windows of opportunity are small and come along only once in a few decades. This may well be one of those windows. But it is fraught with danger.
Here’s an interesting account to follow! https://t.co/7A4iZ84uHs
— Mike Forsythe ??? (@PekingMike) February 27, 2022
Tracking all of the following. pic.twitter.com/cUW5rwS0el
— Russian Oligarch Jets (@RUOligarchJets) February 27, 2022
Mike in NC
I hope President Biden announces in his SOTU address that the Free World is going to take action to stop Putin’s genocide against the people of Ukraine. Time to send in the A-10s, which Tom Clancy called “The Devil’s Cross” in one of his books.
Ohio Mom
If this war were a book I was reading, I would have already peeked at the last pages because the suspense is beginning to get to me.
Baud
@Mike in NC:
Will not happen.
Steeplejack
Phrasing!
Jeffery
Communism collapse after 75 years when the ordinary people of USSR simply didn’t care anymore. The Russian public might be getting there again. The regular people have had it with the special interest groups who rule the country. Oligarchs around the world will be watching this with great interest.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
a hack? or a very brave social media manager?
TaMara
@Steeplejack: Right? !!
Gin & Tonic
@Jeffery:
[citation needed.]
dm
I saw a similar tweet tracking yachts of Russian oligarchs as well, the other day.
Putin’s is apparently quite modest (comparatively speaking), and wisely beat a retreat from Hamburg to a Russian port a few days before the renewed invasion of Ukraine started.
Spanky
@Gin & Tonic: How are we to know?
Have the 100s of people arrested over the weekend been released? If more and more people protest, at what point does the security apparatus stop the arrests? (And then do ???) And what will the people do after that?
No bets either way.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
Russian MOD is now warning about “precision strikes” on Ukrainian security service positions.
Except you know they’ll be anything but precision. They’re already gutting infrastructure that will take years to restore.
I want the reparations to come from the hides of the oligarchs.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Gin & Tonic:
The Russian public’s electoral preferences are several orders of magnitude worse than those of the American heartland and South.
O. Felix Culpa
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: I’d add the hides of TFG and Flobalob to that list. Both have plenty of hide to give.
citizen dave
Coups must be hard, because who do you talk to and plan with? Pick the wrong person and you’re dead. (no great insight, just stating the obvious).
Hoping that as a whole they can open up and try democracy, but not holding my breath. Another autocrat will not cut it in these times.
Wish Joe Strummer was here to write the songs…
Gin & Tonic
James E Powell
My sense is that the Russian oligarchs, like billionaires here & elsewhere, never believe that anything really bad can happen to them. They are confident that whatever problems arise, their money will solve it. They will be stunned & deeply offended if their money doesn’t work its magic.
An analogy from a non-billionaire but still well off & famous person is Harvard professor Dershowitz being shocked that after he betrayed & shit on everything his neighbors believed in & valued, they didn’t want him to come to their parties any more.
p.a.
Is tRump still collecting rent & greens fees from these people? This would be a good line of attack on our own czar-wanna-be right now.
MisterDancer
This is the bit where I point out that voter suppression and manipulation is a real thing — and as real as it is in many parts of America, I’m led to understand it is far worse in Russia.
Especially when you add in state control of much of the media there.
A free people choosing a thing is vastly different from a people being manipulated into a choice. [Edit to add: Even moreso when the moral implications of said choice are hidden from them. That doesn’t absolve them of responsibility, yet it must, I submit, be taken into account.
And yes, I think about this a lot when I research the antebellum South, and the voting manipulation that it pioneered.]
trollhattan
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
IIRC buildings of Sarajevo are pockmarked with bullet divots to this day. That particular war ended in 1996.
Whomever prevails, Ukraine won’t be back to what it was during the lifetimes of today’s Ukrainians.
lowtechcyclist
When you come at the king…
dm
Heather Cox Richardson writes: “Please take note of how dramatically Twitter has changed since the freezing of Russian assets. Suddenly all those anti-Biden ‘American patriots’ have disappeared.”
https://imgur.com/gallery/H59uaps/comment/2200950069
(includes graphs!)
japa21
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: wouldn’t that normally be one of the first priorities?
Fair Economist
Sadly, isolation and impoverishment rarely trigger coups. The main point of these sanctions is to limit the damage Putin can do. There will be a substantial reduction in his power for propaganda and war,and IMO Twitter has already been improved to the troll reduction.
A coup seems unlikely here because of the divisions of power. The oligarchs command no military resources and can’t coup. Siloviki are probably not all that upset yet.
The most likely out is revolution. That normally requires an action by the government that causes mass popular outrage combined with dissension in the elite to limit crackdowns. We have the second, we would need a big policy screw-up by Putin.
Gin & Tonic
@trollhattan: Kyiv was nearly destroyed, twice, during WWII. Within the lifetimes of (at least some) veterans of those battles, it was rebuilt, the USSR collapsed, and Kyiv became as hip as Berlin. Do not underestimate Ukrainians, especially Kyivans. Note that driving into the city, there’s a huge welcome sign to “Hero City – Kyiv.” Not city of heroes, the city itself is considered a hero.
lowtechcyclist
@Gin & Tonic:
The Cultural Revolution, Vietnam, the Cambodian killing fields, Rwanda, Chechnya, Iraq, Yemen, Syria (not exhaustive)…it’s been clear for a long time that whatever “never again” applies to is extremely bounded and limited.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
O. Felix Culpa
@Gin & Tonic: After watching current events and the documentary about the 2013/2014 Maidan Revolution (Winter on Fire), I am blown away by their–and the city’s–heroism.
O. Felix Culpa
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I hope that these reports are true and that the surrenders are in sufficient numbers to make a difference. I am wary of the fallacy of wishful thinking, including in myself.
Miss Bianca
@Fair Economist:
Just to be clear here, you mean beyond, “invasion of Ukraine that tanks the Russian economy, cuts it off from the rest of the world, and offers a piddly amount in rubles to the families of killed soldiers”?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@O. Felix Culpa: I’m desperate for every silver lining, but in the back, and not very far back, of my mind, I can’t let go of the nation that short of one of his daughters bringing him a cup of his own radioactive tea, I can’t see Putin pulling back. The consequences of his incompetence make him more dangerous.
Lyrebird
Yes, but do you know the significance of Baba Yar itself?
lollipopguild
If the Russian drugstore is correct about killed in action then they have had about 1,000 a day killed so far. Imagine this going on for several weeks. In many cases wounded will be 2 to 3 times the number of killed. The Russians are probably not prepared to treat all of the wounded.
O. Felix Culpa
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yes, that is the worry. As G&T and others have said, a cornered animal is particularly dangerous.
Geminid
@O. Felix Culpa: Besides surrenders, reports are that some Russian soldiers are dumping their fuel, a form of passive mutiny. I don’t how widespread this and similar behaviors are.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
I subscribe to some 20 something Russian on YouTuber and the guy just posted his first video after the Russian invasion and that dude was just crushed over this stupid war of Putin’s. If the YouTuber is typical of the thinking of young Russians, small wonder the stories of abandoned tanks, units surrendering or Russian soldiers just giving information away to Ukrainian women on Tik Tok. One wonders how many Russians soldiers are just putting in the bare minimal amount of effort so they don’t get thrown into prison.
Might not be a coup or a revolution against Putin so much as Russia grinding to halt in a mass sick out from nation wide depression.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
“It’s not too late to stop being accomplices to a terrible crime”
Fair Economist
@Miss Bianca: The policy screwup needs to be something that directly impacts non-political people, like Kazakhstan raising the price of fuel. If Russia had a free press, the images from bombing Ukraine might do it. But as things stand I doubt it.
GregMulka
I can see Putin being willing to turn Russia into a bigger version of North Korea but the Kim family had and has a succession plan. What’s Poot’s plan to provide proper progression post Poot?
I would say I’m sorry for that last line but I don’t want to lie.
Cacti
@dm: The US convoy traveling from LA to DC also stopped dead in its tracks just outside of Kansas City once Russian money was shut off.
sdhays
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: The least amount of death and suffering, in both Ukraine and Russia, would be for Putin to die. The sooner the better. He’s the only one really invested in this invasion. If he’s gone, whoever replaces him can blame Putin and start climbing Russia out of the hole.
Putin himself is all in, and I don’t see him changing that calculus. He’s too old and too delusional and cares not at all about the death and destruction and suffering of others.
Jeffro
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: maybe they were only supposed to roll into Ukraine just a lil’ bit while their special forces knocked off Zelensky and other cabinet officials.
Eolirin
@Fair Economist: You really think the economic sanctions won’t do it? Any goods and services that rely in any way and in any part on western supply chains are going to go away and the ability to import anything at all even from people who will still trade with them is going to become extremely expensive. The companies that do exports are going to struggle to continue to exist.
Shortages of all sorts of items and a massive uptick in unemployment will result. And there’s no way Putin is going to be able to supress the cause of that. Having control over the media is not nearly sufficient.
Cacti
He’s also deeply, implacably bitter about the USSR’s loss of the Cold War.
Kay
@dm:
That’s really interesting. I mentioned here once how often my youngest son is shown doctored photos or clips of Biden intended to portray Biden as senile. I was shocked when I talked to him about it. He’s inundated with it and not even in the course of following “politics”. He sees them when he follows music topics online. They’re directed square at young people.
Eolirin
@Kay: The Russian intelligence agencies knew what they were doing with that stuff.
If Putin hadn’t blundered into this ill conceived war they would have been able to continue to do a ton of damage with it.
sdhays
@Cacti: Heck, he’s bitter at the Soviets for breaking up the Russian Empire into Soviet Republics!
Miss Bianca
@Fair Economist: If you really think that the consequences of Putin’s actions – sanctions that cripple the economy – aren’t going to send prices skyrocketing, I dunno…I don’t claim to be an economist of any kind, fair not, but I don’t see how there aren’t going to be immediate and catastrophic economic consequences for the Russian people.
Miss Bianca
@Kay: Is he still seeing them now? Or if he is, as many? That *is* shocking – I obviously swim in a much different online ocean than he does.
(The one time I landed in FB jail was when I challenged a friend – hardcore lefty – when he posted some garbage video like that. A friend of his got triggered when I called out “white men who get to think this kind of shit is funny and comfortably indulge in ‘both sides bad’ because they know, deep down, nothing really bad is going to happen to THEM.” Yes, Virginia – it’s not just right-wing white men who are snowflakes.)
hueyplong
It would be kind of fitting if Russia’s efforts were hampered by a bunch of patriotic anti-Putin posting by American bots.
germy
Roger Moore
@lowtechcyclist:
Yep. A lot of the people who say “never again” have an unspoken “to us” after.
germy
Jay C
And unfortunately, it being Russia, people tend to “accidentally” “fall” out those windows. A lot.
Kay
@Miss Bianca:
I don’t know- he’s at school. He mentioned it last summer so I asked him to show me. It’s meme after meme, clip after clip, all variations on “Biden barely functions”. You know how quickly they sort through it looking for what they want, so he’s only glancing at these, but the sheer volume would have an effect, I think.
Ken
@Roger Moore: And often a fairly narrow definition of “us”.
Kay
@germy:
They’re so embarrassing. The truth is they love Putin and they want that where they live.
dm
@dm: The creator of the graphs has withdrawn them:
https://threadreaderapp.com/user/klharlow
Traffic in those topics was greatly reduced, but not completely flatlined, as his plots originally showed.
Old Man Shadow
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: In a totalitarian regime, I don’t think we can really trust the electoral outcomes that get announced by state media.
Sebastian
I believe Ukraine has enough Javelins, NLAWs, and Stingers.
Time to send Tomahawks.
Roger Moore
@Jeffro:
I think some kind of decapitation strike was definitely part of the plan. They probably also expected their airborne attacks to be more successful than they were. If they had taken the airport outside Kyiv on the first day and been able to fly in heavier troops, the situation there would be very different. Part of the problem may be insufficient contingency planning for what to do if those strikes weren’t successful.
Leto
For people who might have an interest in how Ukrainians are dealing with radio communications (HF and software/internet based RF): RADIO RELATED NEWS OCCURRING IN THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
Old Man Shadow
I hope the reports of Russian soldiers passively rebelling or surrendering are true.
There are still enough “loyal” partisans to fuck a lot of shit up though.
The best outcome would be a peaceful revolution in Russia. The odds of that happening are still pretty low, but who really knows?
A good outcome for the people of Ukraine (but a less good outcome for the people of Russia) would be another oligarch taking out Putin and taking over, stopping the war, and trying to make nice with west so we let them launder and park all of their stolen lucre in our banks and real estate markets again.
Geminid
@germy: As of six days ago LePen was having trouble getting the 500 “pledges” from French mayors required to get on the presidential ballot. Four or five other candidates including President Macron had already qualified.
The first round of France’s presidential election is April 10, the runoff April 24. From euronews.com.
Ksmiami
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: hey man finding out your death is worth less than $100.00 tends to not be a morale booster
Tim C.
Throwing in on all this.
My heart, of course, wants half the Department of Defense to go storming into the rescue blazing AC/DC’s Thunderstruck.
But we are back in the cold war, and it’s time to put on your real-thinking hats. War is politics and the politics of this are how Ukraine survives. The US/NATO getting directly involved beyond just more of what we are doing (Weapons and Equipment, Intelligence and Training, etc) would make Putin stronger, not weaker. In a world without nuclear weapons, maybe, but that’s not the world we live in.
At this point, even if he levels Ukrainian Cities and “wins” it’s a new “forever war” Ukraine will not forgive, and the occupiers will die in the thousands. There will be no profit, no second empire, no onward to Warsaw, nothing but a giant money and blood pit that Russian soldiers will be thrown into. Like all war, a god-damned waste started by an aggressor.
Frankensteinbeck
@Fair Economist:
All reports from Russia suggest that ‘going to war with the Ukraine’ was the policy screwup. It is getting protests all over in a country where protesting is overtly illegal and the boss has his political opponents killed. The policy screwup has been supplied, and it is gigantic.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Frankensteinbeck
As for Putin being overthrown by his circle, he’s a mob boss. Omerta goes to Hell when everybody’s money disappears because the boss screwed up big time and is unwilling to fix it for no reason better than his pride.
EDIT – I mean, let’s be clear. This isn’t “We’re taking a bath on this one, guys.” This is “All of you will never be rich again, and that’s a sacrifice I’m willing to make.”
topclimber
I can’t help but keep spinning hopeful scenarios about the Russian sitzkrieg–that long armored column between Kiev and Belarus that doesn’t seem to make much progress.
(Hopefully) commanders on the scene may not want to get “credit” for losing a big chunk of it in a Kviv meatgrinder. When in doubt, dither.
(Hopefully) commanders can’t be sure those additional jets Ukraine is getting from NATO won’t break through the Russian air defense. I am not a military expert but seems to me it only takes a few jets to target the fuel trucks in that convoy and they are really stuck.
(Hopefully) they are keeping close enough to Belarus so they can retreat.
(Hopefully) there is a diplomatic settlement so that they sitzkrieg their way back to the east.
Calouste
@Geminid: There are more than 40,000 elected French officials that can give those pledges to presidential candidates. Not just mayors (although France has a lot of those) also MPs, regional councilors etc. Yet Le Pen can get a little over 1% of those. I think the other right-wing asshole that is running has the same problem. They’ll probably get them, but it’s good to see them squirm.
I like that system btw, I think political parties should show their chops at a local level first before moving up, limits flash-in-the-pan populists.
Chetan Murthy
@topclimber: I read today that Poland and Bulgaria (?) decided not to send those jets; the Ukrainian pilots are returning home by train. Ugh. I hope they know what they’re doing.
Ken
Very cinematic, especially when back-lit by the mushroom cloud rising over Kyiv.
My own fantasy preference would be Magneto lifting the entire column and flying it back to Russia. Or maybe the Martian war machines from the 1953 War of the Worlds; I always liked their art deco look.
Cacti
@Geminid: It’s been fun watching the European far right squirm as their buddy in Moscow shows his true face to the world.
moops
Perhaps it is possible that the unbreakable propaganda machine that props up the GOP will falter.
Kay
The economic side of this thing just kills me and it’s true with Russia and Ukranians too. They can’t lock people into their shitty, corrupt economy. People want to get out. When the Ukranians talk about fighting for their children it isn’t just land or civil rights. They want to be part of the European economy because there’s more opportunity and it’s a better quality of life. Fuck these plutocrats who are demanding people stay with them and stay poor- they don’t want to.
cliosfanboy
A couple in Belarus would be nice too.
Ruckus
@lollipopguild:
The Russians supposedly in charge are likely to not even have considered the possibility of wounded. They didn’t seem to have considered the planning at all for the invasion, things like fuel, supplies, ammunition, information, details, orders, training, mud….
Gin & Tonic
@Sebastian: They do not have enough of the first.
moops
Putin schemes and subverts to get the UK to abandon the EU. One year later Ukraine, right on his border, is hurriedly brought into the EU.
moops
@Ruckus: Russia set up huge field hospitals on the border of Ukraine in the week before the invasion. It was one of the surest signs that they intended a big regime change in Ukraine and expected a hot war.
Tim C.
@Ken: My ham-handed example was part of my self-criticism actually; the problem is too many people, including me, are tempted to see it terms of narrative and memes and movies.
That’s not how it works.
Tazj
I wonder if this will help? There is a new messaging strategy by Democrats to link inflation to corporations gouging the public.https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/01/politics/senate-democrats-inflation/index.html.
jonas
@germy: My guess is that we see a lot of right-wing parties in Western Europe, from Farage and UKIP to La Pen’s operation to AfD in Germany and FP in Austria run into trouble as the Russian funding dries up. Europe’s far right has basically been operating as agents provocateur for Putin for years now. Same here in the US.
sdhays
The EU Parliament has recommended Ukraine be given EU candidate status, according to the Kyiv Independent.
Geminid
@Calouste: The French a unique political system. They did a lot of trial and error under their first four constitutions. Their Fifth Republic seems to have achieved a stable and resilient polity. The current system combines elements of both European-style parliamentary democracy with a strong executive like we have in the U.S. General DeGaulle insisted on this before he was elected the first President of the Fifth Republic, in the midst of France’s wrenching crisis over Algeria, I think.
Old Man Shadow
@moops: I’ve heard unconfirmed reports that the Twitter troll activity has decreased since the sanctions were imposed.
Don’t know if it’s true.
jonas
@Ruckus: My impression from what I’ve read is that Putin bet everything on NATO/US fracturing and him being able to topple Ukraine’s pro-western government with some special forces and a lot of bluster. Now he has to invade and occupy a huge country and combat furious resistance with, to be sure, some well-equipped, well-trained special forces, but mostly poor, underfed, under-supplied conscripts who don’t want anything to do with this clusterfuck. Not surprised if we see photos at some point of hungry Russian soldiers trading their guns for a sandwich in some Ukrainian village they’re stuck in.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@trollhattan:
One of my dearest friends in this office fled Sarajevo when that shit started. She has some stories…..
lollipopguild
@Ruckus: They really seem to think that they were just going to walk in and take over.
Calouste
@Kay: Russia can stomp their feet all they want about foreign companies not exiting their investments in Russia, but when BP and Shell announced they were exiting Russia, they were pretty much saying it would be a complete write off. The only thing Russia can do is prevent them from selling their investments, but there is no way they can prevent them from just abandoning them.
catclub
I think the russian people are more likely to stand those consequences than western politicians will be able to stand a doubling of oil prices.
I hope I am wrong.
Calouste
@Geminid: Since the US ratified their constitution, France has had as government forms: three different kingdoms, two empires, five republics and some small change such as the Paris Commune. They can definitely talk from experience about what does and doesn’t work.
Spc
@Baud: hell no. NFZ is now the buzzword for people who have no idea how this shit works.
Gin & Tonic
@jonas: Here’s one of the drawbacks of Putin’s years-long campaign to convince everyone that Russian-speaking Ukrainians are on Russia’s side: when an underfed 19-year-old kid from a dead-end town in middle-of-nowhere Russia, who just joined the Army for a paycheck and a chance to get an apartment, goes into some village where everyone speaks Russian but wants to throw a Molotov cocktail at his tank, he’s faced with a choice – he can lay down his weapon or, basically, shoot his grandmother.
That’s why I think the widely-reported strategy of “allowing” POW’s to call home was good, but I think of it not as allowed to call, but your captor ordering you to call your mother. So now you have to explain why you’ve gone there to kill people who comrade Vladimir Vladimirovich says are “just like us.” Mom will *not* be happy.
Soprano2
@Kay: I don’t think it’s just young people – I’ve got older friends who are convinced that Biden is a doddering, senile fool, and no amount of posting clips of him giving speeches or answering questions at press conferences will dissuade them of the truth of it.
jonas
@Tazj: New messaging strategies by Democrats never gain any traction because it’s left up to individual politicians or pundits to toss it in as a sound bite on whatever cable shows or 30-second interviews they happen to get booked on — there’s nothing comparable on the left to the massive, coordinated media juggernaut on the right (Fox News + talk radio + Facebook + every GOP politician from McCarthy down to the local dogcatcher) that can mainstream a wingnut talking point within hours and have it in the headlines of the NYT by morning. Meanwhile on page A6, bottom of page, third paragraph in, something about Nancy Pelosi blaming inflation on corporate price-gouging.
Kalakal
@jonas: If I was a Russian squaddie who’s been stuck in a 40 mile tailback on a road in a thawing swamp for 3 days, inching along at abot 1/2 mph, knowing there are are 1,000s of people armed with state of the art anti-vehicle missiles just itching to use them all around me with absolutely no indication that my commanders have any plan at all, my morale would be non-existent. I’d probably be surrendering for a sandwich too, espescially if I learnt that my life was worth $100 to my leaders
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Baud
@Soprano2:
Political version of antivaxxism.
The Thin Black Duke
I’m reading this thread while listening to Public Enemy’s Rebirth of a Nation. It’s working.
Matt McIrvin
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: The Russian public’s elections are orders of magnitude less legit than those in the American heartland and the South (which is saying something). Opposition that poses an actual threat tends to walk out of fifth-story windows and jump down elevator shafts. I’m not sure we can trust their elections as reflections of anyone’s preferences.
trollhattan
Everybody’s got their limits.
laura
@Soprano2: Those older friends are clinging to the Biden’s senile fig leaf to avoid any possible discussion of their votes for tfg and the trump-stank they can never ever EVER wash off their own loathsome selves. Good luck with that older friends.
trollhattan
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Can I get an eyeroll? ? Ole!
Baud
@trollhattan:
He just lost Georgia.
marklar
@Roger Moore: “Yep. A lot of the people who say “never again” have an unspoken “to us” after.”
Careful, Roger. I know this isn’t your intent, but this could easily be construed as “Jews don’t care about what happens to other people.”
Kay
@Soprano2:
He is old and he looks old. It’s partly because he’s tall and thin and slumps his shoulders a bit. The “senile” stuff is different- vicious – just mean spirited. I hate bullies.
It’s hard for me because I cannot imagine finding Donald Trump attractive, and I think it’s a comparison. I genuinely loathe his voice and manner of speaking- all those dumb filler words. I can hear him listening to himself talk, and loving it.
JPL
@Baud: trump will say he doesn’t even know who she is by this weekend. Her comments have received a lot of attention here, but I doubt that Hershel made the decision. btw Did you know that he played football.
Ken
I can top that. John McCain was a POW.
Kay
@Calouste:
Why is their per capita income so low with all those natural resources? Because it all – ALL- stays at the tippy top. Gross. Who in their right mind wants their kids trapped in that system?
Matt
The Biden administration should arrange a “leak” to Fox et al about anonymous oligarchs discussing surrender terms with the West.
Worst-case, some rich assholes get purged. Best-case, they move first.
Geminid
@Baud: Walker and other Georgia Republicans really can’t afford to lose any Republican voters. The dropoff between the 2020 general election and the runoff was enough to put Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff in the Senate.
It’s too bad the events of January 6 happened just as we sere learning of these victories. That Janary 5 election would have been interesting and perhaps illuminating to discuss.
Captain C
@lollipopguild: Hence the request for doctors, many doctors, that we saw a few days ago.
RaflW
@dm: Still plenty of “leftists” who are upset that googlepay doesn’t work on the Moscow metro any more. (My satirical tweet is immediately upthread).
moops
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I think it might be time to consider imposing sanctions on countries that decline to impose sanctions on Russia.
artem1s
@trollhattan:
I disagree. The buildings of East Berlin were still pockmarked and the city was dotted with empty lots where buildings had been torn down after the war right up until 1998. If Ukraine prevails they might well see an economic boom similar to East Germany after the fall of the wall. Ukraine has been kept struggling and marginalized economically since WWII. Even the collapse of the USSR didn’t mean true economic or political freedom. They may well become a European super power to rival Germany. But if Putin prevails the rebuilding could take decades.
Benw
@The Thin Black Duke: such a great album!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
some low comedy in dark times
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Media loves them some white protestors.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@RaflW:from that tweet you linked too
Yes, just like a Ukrainian who just had his house napalmed at random.
lowtechcyclist
@Lyrebird: I do, but given the seemingly unfocused (below the city level) nature of Russian missile attacks, I don’t yet have reason to believe this was anything but where the latest shell happened to land
ETA: Anyway, which is worse, saying “never again” and ignoring an attack on a memorial to the slaughter of tens of thousands, or saying “never again” and ignoring the slaughter of tens of thousands?
ian
@moops:
Can’t tell if your snarking here, you want to sanction Mexico?
VOR
It’s pretty much an article of faith on the right that Biden is a doddering, senile, sleepy old man. But TFG, only 3 years younger, is a vision of vigor and energy. I’ve seen TFG have trouble putting a sentence together or stick to a topic without rambling. It just seems like a clear case of projection.
Martin
@marklar: Looks at the Israeli governments handling of Palestine and wonders how anyone could misconstrue Roger’s message here.
Geminid
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: “Freedom’s just another word for no one, left to use… “
Chetan Murthy
@marklar: It’s not Jewish people: many Jewish people all over the world have been great on this, and also in America where the majority have been so. OTOH, far too many *Israelis* (enough to make a governing majority) haven’t been so good at all.
The idea that Israel, a country we’ve put an enormous amount of money and lives behind, fucks us on this Russia sanctions thing is really pissing me off. They’re our client, they need to fucking get in line.
The Thin Black Duke
@VOR: Cognitive Dissonance locked in a feedback loop lost in an Echo Chamber.
Starboard Tack
@Calouste: The only ones who might buy Shell and BP’s stakes are the Russians, for copeks for the rubles. If Western oil companies merely withdraw, Russia gets the value for free. The real bite will be if the oligarchs need further investments of cash or resources
catclub
@ian: definitely punching down. How about sanctioning China for not agreeing with us. either one is counterproductive.
You still can prosecute mexican banks for transacting with sanctioned Russians – just like the prosecutions of banks that had transactions with iran when it was sanctioned.
Chetan Murthy
@Martin: @marklar: It’s critically important to maintain the distinction between Jewish people (whether in Israel or elsewhere) and Israel as a state (and the voters who support its current government’s policies).
Especially American and European Jewish people have been stalwart allies in fighting oppression; Israel, not so much, and even less lately.
It’s critically important to not let those two different things get conflated: it leads to antisemitism and that’s never a good way to go.
catclub
@Chetan Murthy:
I wish. I think you misunderstand who is in charge of this relationship.
So do I.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@VOR: more like Russian projecting their concerns about Putin mental health onto Biden. If Putin was merely being stupid in an information bubble I would think by now we would be seeing signs of Putin trying to weasel his way out of this mess, but Putin just seems to be doubling down.
Jeffro
@trollhattan: just the fact that today’s GQP consists of MTG and Herschel Walker is really mind-blowing all by itself. Never mind that they’re fighting, never mind what they’re fighting about.
Lots of good story angles here if the media ever gets tired of writing about blessed inflation, or ‘Dems in disarray’. Here you go, media, I’ll list them for you:
Kay
@VOR:
Trump is fleshier- heavier- which in an older person can make them look younger because it fills out their face.
But, as I said, it’s a mystery to me. I think Trump is really unattractive. For one thing- the no sense of humor and how he never genuinely smiles. It’s creepy.
Timill
@moops: Say: giving them Texas if they won’t cooperate?
terry chay
@Mike in NC: Red Storm Rising. And that is unlikely. You have to have air supremacy to fly A10’s and the U.S. (and others) are unwilling to even do a no-fly zone because of conflict with Russia.
Not sure what he’s going to say at the SOTU, but it won’t be that.
germy
Scott Ritter! I’d forgotten all about him
Baud
I think Biden should announce that the U.S. will launch nukes first.
Mostly because I’m curious to see how that move will be portrayed as weak.
Baud
@germy: I don’t know who that is.
Soprano2
It is, they genuinely think TFG’s babbling incoherence is brilliant. I agree with you, I think TFG is a gross and disgusting person. My husband complains about how poorly TFG’s clothes fit him – if he really is a billionaire, why doesn’t he spend some of that money on a tailor? Biden and Obama always look good in their clothes. As for “old” of course Biden is, but TFG is too but they don’t think of him that way.
Geminid
@Chetan Murthy: If Israel has let Ukraine down so badly, why did Ukraine’s President ask Israel’s Prime Minister to help mediate with Putin, citing Israel’s “good relations'” with Russian and Ukraine? This was reported in several outlets Friday, confirmed by Ukraine’s ambassador to Israel.
I understand the animus people have toward Israel on account of their unjust treatment of the Palestinian people. But you don’t need to use this current war and the Ukrainians to take a whack at the Israelis. There’s plenty to whack them about anyway.
Martin
@trollhattan: I don’t know. Ukraine has all of the elements of a strong economy, they just haven’t put them all together yet, in part because they keep getting yanked back and forth in this chess match, and in part because the public there seems deeply skeptical of their government and future, probably due to the same problem. Oh, and that environmental catastrophe north of Kyiv.
But the best thing they have now is that other countries want them to succeed. The EU wants them to succeed. NATO does. The US does. That helps a LOT. Ukraine isn’t an economic threat to Germany or France or the UK, so it’s easy for us to be generous to them, particularly if this conflict results in a stronger national pride, a stronger culture, and a more unified people. That presumes they don’t lose this thing.
In the geopolitical chess match, there’s nothing more satisfying to the US than having a really prosperous, modern state on Russia border. I mean, yeah, if they lose and are occupied, then they go into a cultural/economic coma until they regain independence. And that could be generations. But if they don’t lose (the best ‘win’ condition for Ukraine looks pretty grim) then there’s some good possibilities for them.
Normally when assets are frozen, the country freezing them can’t spend them. They’re held and returned basically as-is when they are unfrozen, usually with interest paid that was earned on those assets. However, if war crimes are involved, those assets can be used for reparations. The UN needs to vote on that and there’s of course a lot or rules, but the Russian assets being seized may be turned over to Ukraine to rebuild. It’s a kind of built-in Marshal plan provided that Russia has enough assets to seize (which they do).
Baud
@Kay:
Biden looks older, but he’s handsomer.
Miss Bianca
@germy: Who the fuck is Scott Ritter? Other than just some fuckhead (as opposed to Just Some Fuckhead).
trollhattan
Article from January about Philip Grossman, Atlanta-based documentarian photo/videographer who has traveled into the Chernobyl exclusion a whopping fourteen times. Am glad we have his images and stories; who knows if travel there will again be allowed?
Starboard Tack
@Baud:
Isn’t that just an extension of the Bush doctrine?
evodevo
@Kay: yes…I think my niece and her husband fell for that crap in 2020 – course they are libertarians anyway, but they are both a hair over 40 and into all the “hip” stuff, so I bet the pages they skim are full of that stuff…I had a BIG disagreement with her about it online, and have only spoken sporadically since then, but I just could not overlook it…
Kay
@Soprano2:
I actually think his extremely limited vocabularly gets him into trouble, because he doesn’t have words for things like “bad person who is also intelligent” so he says “VERY smart!”
The Thin Black Duke
@germy: I dunno. Anyone who’s protecting their home from unlawful invaders sounds like a citizen to me.
Gin & Tonic
@Miss Bianca: He’s a pedophile who was a UN arms inspector of some form at one time.
Nelle
@trollhattan: There are tours to Chernobyl. I turned one down when in Kyiv.
Kay
@evodevo:
It just seems shallow and dumb to me. He looks old, but that doesn’t mean he’s impaired. I don’t trust people who think like this, who are so swayed by appearance. I hope they aren’t in a position to hire or sit on a jury. Ugh. They’re not fair minded.
Martin
@Geminid: Because Zelenskyy isn’t interested in holding a grudge – he wants Russia out of his fucking country. He’s going to ask whoever will be most effective in that role. Only the US and Russia and China have the privilege of posturing.
I mean, Finland entered into an uneasy alliance with the Nazis to repel the Soviets from their borders. What to do about the Nazis was a problem for another day. Turns out that day came in 1944 and Finland turned on the Nazis.
When your country is on the line, you make allies with whoever you need to.
Jeffro
@Baud: they’re busy touting his SECOND-LOWEST PRE-SOTU RATING ON RECORD*, so he might be tempted
*guess who is first? That’s right:
Chief Oshkosh
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Ya just can’t fix stupid.
Calouste
@Baud: I think that if NATO will get actively involved, it will be nukes first. Because Putin has basically said that if NATO gets actively involved, he will use nukes, so NATO has to get in the first strike.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@germy:
Is this Ritter character correct when he says this?
Kay
@Jeffro:
I read Obama’s 2010 SOTU just to see how he handled being unpopular and it’s just really good. He understood why people were mad at him and addressed each reason in turn. He was just a gifted politician as far as reading the public. They don’t come along every day.
jackmac
@germy: In addition to his alleged pedophile activities, Wikipedia also reports Scott Ritter writes for Russia Today (RT).
The Thin Black Duke
@Calouste: “Now I’m not saying we won’t get our hair mussed…”
lowtechcyclist
@germy:
I have to believe that’s bullshit. The notion that it’s illegal under, what, international law? the Geneva conventions? for civilians to take up arms against a foreign army invading their country? That makes no fucking sense at all.
germy
@jackmac:
this is why he’s so angry
Gin & Tonic
@jackmac: Not alleged. He was convicted.
Gin & Tonic
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): No.
Frank Wilhoit
@Kay: Part of Trump’s stupidity is genuine and part of it is an act. The combination is uniquely revolting. The proportions don’t matter. Speaking in sentences will soon be disqualifying for any Republican candidates — in some places, it already is.
Roger Moore
@marklar:
I am (culturally) Jewish, and
that’s exactly what I meanI am fully aware this could be applied to Jews. I certainly don’t mean this to say that nobody who says “never again” cares about anyone but their own, but there are a lot of Jews who don’t seem to care when genocide happens to other people. The situation in Palestine couldn’t be the way it is if the Israeli right actually thought “never again” applied to Palestinians.Jeffro
@Kay: yup
It would help if Team Biden expanded on the “where are THEIR ideas?” theme (for literally any and all of our current crises)
And then point out how they either have no answer, or talk out both sides of their mouths. Ted Cruz is busy tweeting about high gas prices and also that President Biden won’t sanction Russian oil and gas (which would drive up prices further). Which. Is. It., Ted? Tell us what President Cruz would do.
Do it to all of their leaders, by name. Lather, rinse, repeat.
LadySuzy
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Mexico won’t impose sanctions.
The first of a few I think. They see this as an opportunity for foreign investment. Everyone for himself.
Watch for many countries outside the western alliance to do the same.
Damn.
What about China ? And all countries of South East Asia ?
If the whole world doesn’t come on board, I’m very concerned that the hit on the oligarchs and on the Russian economy will only be temporary,
And we’re back to square one.
I wish the left hadn’t torpedoed TPP. It would give us some leverage on them.
Martin
@Sebastian: Ukraine is receiving weapons that can be operated by 1-2 people with very little training. You can learn how to use an NLAW or Stinger in an hour. A Javelin in a couple. There’s no infrastructure or supply chain needed for them. They’re portable, and hard for the enemy to target.
Tomahawk doesn’t fit in that box in any respect. No, Ukraine needs some big cheap sticks that work at ranges of a mile or so. Send a couple of dudes out to fuck up a tank in one of those convoys. Slows the convoy down, removes a tank from the playing field. Repeat x infinity.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
OK. Thanks G&T.
Actually looked unlawful combatant up on Wiki, and I didn’t see anything about UCs being subject to “summary execution” under the Geneva Conventions
Sebastian
@Miss Bianca:
I have a little experience with that from when I was a teenager. Yugoslavia went through the aftershocks of something similar to what Russia is about to and it was absolutely hilarious sometimes.
Soooo, YU had no access to foreign currency of which there are two kinds. I don’t know the English terms so I will use the phonetic Slavic terms:
Devisa and Valuta. Devisa is money in the bank, electronic money, money in ledgers, 0 and 1s. Valuta is cash (paper and coin).
YU had very little access to devisa, the majority through selling agricultural or raw products like low-quality aluminum or steel to Middle Eastern countries or shady middlemen for pennies on the dollar. The state but more so the population had access to valuta (foreign cash) through black market trade and relatives who lived and worked outside YU.
Inflation was rampant to an extent that prices would increase daily, sometimes several times per day. At some point, local money becomes a joke as the printing presses can’t keep up and the government declares that certain banknotes are to be treated as if they have additional zeroes on them (the red 100 Dinar banknote was called “the ten thousand”). Nobody is trading with anyone because how do you set prices and payment terms? Instead, the economy reverts to barter or foreign valuta. Cue two chickens for a doctor’s visit.
The first ones to get hit hard are those on fixed incomes, i.e. retirees, followed shortly by government employees, as their income drops to basically zero overnight.
Shortages of imported goods will be felt with weeks. Coffee is the first thing noticed by everyone. That’s when things get really dicey. As silly as it may sound, nicotine and caffeine are drugs that keep a population low-level drugged, and once those drugs are gone, people get cranky and things start to escalate very quickly.
dm
@Soprano2: Sean Hannity tells them nightly about Biden’s “warm milk from a sippy cup” and other things that I would think would be insults his mostly elderly audience. Part of the goal is to scare them that Kamala Harris and the Squad are pulling the strings of the Biden marionette.
Don’t forget, these are the same people who thought Obama-teleprompter jokes were plausible enough to be funny.
The Utter Dregs
@Gin & Tonic: And a writer for RT.
artem1s
@Old Man Shadow:
I think the odds are pretty high there might be a revolution. after all the whole army is off invading Ukraine. But it’s not going to be peaceful. It’s going to be Romanovs shot and buried in a field and Ceausescu dragged thru the streets type of revolution.
Captain C
@GregMulka: Apres moi, le deluge. That’s it.
ETA: Putin strikes me as the leader who won’t groom a successor because he’s afraid the successor will get impatient. Good for a Sith Lord, really bad for the ruler of a country.
Sebastian
@Martin:
I know, I was thinking of giving them capabilities to strike artillery positions around the cities and in Crimea. AFAIK, Ukraine is drowning in Javelins, NLAWs, and Stingers right now. Sweden and Denmark sent 7,500 NLAWs this week alone.
Kay
@Jeffro:
2010:
I think it’s best to just take it head on. I sometimes get some bitterness from Biden, some defensiveness and I think that’s a disaster for him. It’s part of what worries me about the current climate. Obama was unpopular in 2010, we got killed in the midterms, but he knew why. I don’t get any sense that Democrats know why- they seem to be grasping at things- maybe it’s schools, maybe it’s masks, maybe it’s the deficit. They need to figure out what’s wrong.
The Pale Scot
So I just found BBC Pidgin
https://www.bbc.com/pidgin/world-60577191
This could be a dementia therapy,
evodevo
@Miss Bianca: Bush’s Iraq War…he was a UN weapons inspector in the Nineties who stated publicly in the run up to the invasion that Saddam did NOT have any WMDs and Bush/cheney was lying about it…
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Depends, from what I read. Ukraine would argue those are members of a government sanctioned militia, the Russians could be dicks and argue those are criminal gangs because Ukraine is part of Russia.
It’s kind of hard to argue the Ukrainian militia should be properly uninformed when it was the Russians who staged a surprise invasion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unlawful_combatant#Prisoners_of_war
Martin
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): No. The Geneva convention is very clear – every person must be slotted into two categories – either enemy combatant or civilian. And summary execution is illegal for either. ‘Unlawful combatant’ is simply a concept to move someone from civilian to combatant because they aren’t uniformed, etc. You still need to treat them like a POW.
Ritter has the usual fascist fantasies of executing anyone who disagrees with him.
Sebastian
@Starboard Tack:
That’s not how any of this works. Gazprom, Lukoil, etc don’t have the know-how for exploration, drilling, and extraction and rely on Western tech which they get through joint ventures.
BP and Shell just pulled out of all JV and are writing off the loss, around $3bn for each of them I believe. At this point, no other Western company will stay in a JV.
The Russian petro-industry is dead.
Jeffro
@Kay: identifying the many stressors is helpful but not enough…voters need to be reminded that a) Democrats are fighting for them and b) Republicans at best have no ideas and at worst will do anything to kneecap President Biden, even if it means hundreds of thousands of preventable Covid deaths, even if it means a recession, even if it means tepid GOP support/unity that encourages bloody dictators abroad.
“The GOP stands for absolutely nothing but ‘rule or ruin’…and they mean it, folks” – Biden, I wish
Roger Moore
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
I don’t think Putin’s thinking on Ukraine necessarily reflects senility or any kind of irrationality. What it represents is Putin putting his personal interests ahead of the Russian people. My gut feeling is that he decided on attacking Ukraine because he is worried about his domestic position and thought a short, glorious war would be a good way to improve it. If that’s the case, he knows victory is the only way forward for him personally. It’s a huge gamble, but he might well have chosen that rationally over being quite literally thrown out of office.
The Pale Scot
@Roger Moore:
Putin perceives himself as Russia Incarnate. That other realms do not recognize Russia’s and his awesomeness is an insult that must be rectified ]
WaterGirl
@moops: Wondering what point you are making with the juxtaposition of those two things. Can you elaborate?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Roger Moore: I am thinking Putin’s mental health makes it hard for him to react a rapidly changing situation. Putin started off assuming NATO and Ukraine were Paper Tigers, now he is in a meat grinder and seems to be insiting this isn’t happening or just being fatalistic.
WaterGirl
@Tazj: The thing is, they truly are linked. So they are not trying to spin something out of nothing, they are trying to point out that the corporations are making out like bandits and are causing inflation to go up.
Jen Psaki has been talking about this for weeks in her press briefings.
WaterGirl
@sdhays:
What rights and privileges does candidate status confer that an applicant otherwise does not have?
Kay
@Jeffro:
I think he has to show that he knows what they’re unhappy with and he can’t do that if he doesn’t know.
It’s key to everything that follows. Obama won handily in 2012. He came back. Because his adminstration was obsessive on staying on top of what people were thinking- they weren’t afraid of bad news. They wanted to know.
Roger Moore
@lowtechcyclist:
As I understand it, the law of war is supposed to make a distinction between combatants and noncombatants. Combatants are supposed to wear a uniform so the other side can recognize them. Noncombatants are supposed to stay out of the fight, and both sides are supposed to leave them alone. If someone fights without wearing the uniform of the side they’re fighting for, they are indeed an unlawful combatant and don’t have the same protections as a lawful combatant if/when they’re captured.
Of course Russia is pretty much wiping their ass with the protections noncombatants are supposed to have. They have indiscriminately shelled civilians, attacked hospitals, etc. There’s little point in Ukrainians bothering to wear uniforms, because the Russians seem content to attack without bothering to check if they might hit civilians.
Geminid
@Martin: Zelenski has impressed me as shrewd and pragmatic in his diplomacy. He knows that the time for mediation has not come yet, but he is looking ahead. He also understands that Israel has it’s own Russia problem and cannot act as an arbiter. They are still a good informal channel to the Putin, though. Prime Minister later called Putin, who rejected the offer.
Zelensky also asked President Erdogan of Turkey to mediate, again citing the good relations between Turkey and Russia and Ukraine. Something may come of this. Turkey is a regional power, and while it is NATO member it has not gone but so far in it’s hostility towards Russia. But there will be nothing to mediate while Putin still hopes for some measure of victory.
Israel and Ukraine actually do have a friendly relationship. There are a lot of Israelis working with Ukrainians in tech and other businesses. There is also a lot of travel back and forth of Israel’s many Ukrainian immigrants. I expect the two countries will pick up here they left off when peace, or at least a cease-fire comes.
Martin
@Sebastian: You can never have enough portable anti-air/armor weapons. Russia has 30,000 armored units. I’m not sure what the DOD ratio would be for a mixed trained/untrained defensive force, but I’m guessing a MINIMUM of 30,000 anti-armor weapons to repel it.
I’d guess Adam would argue that if there are still tanks coming over the border, you need more NLAW/Javelins. If there are still planes in the air, you need more Stingers. Solve those two problems and I’m guessing all others solve themselves.
I mean, yeah, it’d be great if Ukraine could hit those convoys 40 miles out, before they get in range, but that capacity can’t be added without bringing the troops and logistics that go along with it. And NATO has ruled that out so far. Ukraine will have to make do with what they have there. They’re going to have to wait until those convoys are up close and personal, which is going to be hard.
This is a bit of a challenge for NATO as Ukraine is trained on Russian weapons, not American/European ones. NATO needs to send them either Russian weapons, or easy enough to train on ones. And NATO doesn’t have a ton of Russian gear.
Kent
@moops: Russia is literally a ultra-right country today.
I’m am utterly mystified by all these lefty regimes like Mexico, who still curry favor with Russia. Is it just the nation version of Glem Greenwald’s knee-jerk anti-west nonsense?
Kent
Russia has been drilling for oil for over 100 years. I’m sure they can benefit from the latest western technology and know-how but I think it is a very far stretch to say that their petro-industry is dead. Russia is not Nigeria. They have plenty of scientific and technical know-now. They have a space program and a nuclear weapons program. They do know how to do science
The reason that BP and Shell were in joint ventures was to make $$$ not charity.
Calouste
Anyone in the market for an 800-mile natural gas pipeline, as good as new? The company behind Nordstream 2 has filed for bankruptcy.
lollipopguild
@Baud: You are very funny and I agree with you 100% The next time putin threatens to use nukes I want someone to ask him if he wants to be president of a hole in the ground that glows in the dark.
topclimber
@Chetan Murthy: Zelenskyy has suggested Israel as a mediator in peace talks. So it might be better that they stay on the sidelines a bit.
They have made a statement in support of Ukraine sovereignty.
As long as they don’t ship any military tech to Russia, I am fine with them not being on the pointy end of the spear re: economic sanctions. If peace talks go nowhere, then drop the hammer.
ETA: what GeminiD said.
Roger Moore
@Martin:
FWIW, Stingers have been proven effective against helicopters, but they’re pretty marginal against planes. They have a limited range and altitude ceiling, and a small warhead. The short range means the plane needs to come close to the launcher for the missile to have much chance against it, and the small warhead means the missile has to get very close to do much damage*. This is why the military has bigger, more capable missiles for dealing with fast movers.
*Most anti-air missiles live up to their name by not hitting their target directly. Instead, they get close and then blow up a warhead that hits the plane with fragments. The bigger the warhead, the further from the target the missile can be and still do lethal damage.
Sebastian
@WaterGirl:
Mostly bragging rights to have cleared the first hurdle and having achieved a status of economic and legal maturity that allows progression.
A candidate receives a clear list and timeline of laws and regulations that need to be implemented.
Geminid
@topclimber: Israel isn’t going to ship any arms to Russia. On the other hand, they aren’t licensing NATO countries send their Israeli-made SPIKE missile systems to Ukraine. Ukraine may not have even asked, knowing that Israel has its own Russia problem and wouldn’t allow this.
Ruckus
@lollipopguild:
When the esteemed leader says jump, those in close proximity jump. Most everyone else likely goes, “What the ever loving fuck is this asshole thinking?” And the answer was that he want(ed) everyone else to do whatever it takes to keep him in power. Every closed government, especially those run by dictators gets to this point sooner or later. Whenever their shit gets to be too much to shovel, people stop shoveling, often all at once. Especially when they recognize that they are paying for the largess of the dictator in every way, and getting absolutely screwed doing it.
Sebastian
@Roger Moore:
The Ukraine crisis is about the gas and oil fields in the Black Sea. It’s about money.
Mike in NC
In 1914 the Germans invading Belgium and France shot lots of civilians as a means to terrorize the population. They were acting on a tight deadline to reach Paris and every holdup interfered with that.
Ruckus
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Vova didn’t get to where he is by weaseling into or out of anything. He’s gone in pretty whole hog in Ukraine and it looks mostly like a saddened old man still trying to play the part of someone half his age.
Omnes Omnibus
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Scott Ritter should research the concept of a levée en masse. He may want to read Article 4.A.6 of the Third Geneva Convention.
yellowdog
@trollhattan:Some buildings in Barcelona have bullet holes from the Spanish Civil War.
Sebastian
Per the Kyiv Independent:
Opinion:
That is a serious injection of fighters. Don’t forget that Ukraine has been at war since 2014 and had six waves of conscription and many veterans. The folks coming back are mostly in their 20ies, 30ies, and to a lesser extent in their 40ies. Many have military training and a non-significant number have combat experience.
Foreign volunteers are now in the (very) low thousands.
This is not going well for Russia tbh. Logistics are going to be a problem for everyone soon if they aren’t already.
Belarus has entered the war with its own crappy army. I wonder if those troops are fair game for an attack, maybe Poland?
Calouste
@yellowdog: There’s a building in the Netherlands that still has the bullet holes from when William the Silent got assassinated in 1584 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_the_Silent#Assassination
Sebastian
@Omnes Omnibus:
This. Besides, UKR territorial forces wear yellow armbands so the point is moot anyway.
Omnes Omnibus
@Calouste: Interesting that he didn’t go quietly.
Sebastian
@Omnes Omnibus:
Any last words?
Omnes Omnibus
@Sebastian:
Yes, as long as they wear a distinctive marking, answer to an authority, and carry weapons openly, they are considered lawful combatants under any definition of the term.
Calouste
@Sebastian: There’s a concern in the EU at the moment about logistics and distribution, because so many Ukrainians work as truck drivers there that are now going back to Ukraine, that there is going to be a shortage of truckdrivers. One of the reasons so many Ukrainians work as truck drivers is that they learned to drive trucks during their time as conscripts.
Sebastian
@Omnes Omnibus:
And that’s exactly what they do. They are organized into platoons of ~20 with a platoon leader.
Sebastian
@Calouste:
Yeah, I can see that. Poland, Ukraine, Bulgaria always seemed to have an endless reservoir of truck drivers.
Omnes Omnibus
@Sebastian: It’s almost like they read the fucking rules or something. I took a look at Ritter’s Twitter feed; it’s crazytown over there. It is sad. I respected him once.
Miss Bianca
@Kay: You know, I guess I just don’t share your lack of faith that Biden is going to be up to the task of giving a good SOTU address that tackles these themes.
In other words, to borrow O2’s immortal phrase, you sound pre-disappointed to me.
Gin & Tonic
@Sebastian:
You might mean “significant”? Or “non-trivial”?
Peale
@Miss Bianca: IDK. The other week, the press, thanks to twitter decided that the way Biden leaves the room is “odd”. So lets hope he gives a roaring speech and doesn’t leave the room “oddly.” Because that’s what they want to talk about.
Juju
@Gin & Tonic: Ritter also writes for RT, according to Wikipedia. I find that to be an interesting little tidbit.
Gin & Tonic
@Juju: Is that more interesting or less interesting than his conviction and imprisonment for soliciting (what he believed to be) an underage girl?
ETA: Given how Ukraine is now treating looters, he may not want to visit there.
Kay
@Miss Bianca:
I think really gifted political people are rare and he’s in the even tinier group of “Presidents”. It’s hard.
Sebastian
@Gin & Tonic:
Non-trivial, thanks for catching that.
Gin & Tonic
OK, I’m not sure this has been linked or posted, but here’s a list (in English) of ways to help Ukraine. It comes from people I trust. You may not agree with every item, but I’m sure everyone will find something they can support.
https://quip.com/SxBaALA94uQf
dm
@yellowdog: Christ Church Cambridge, in Harvard Square has bullet holes (musket ball holes, actually), from the Revolution.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
St Stephen’s Cathedral, Vienna, has a 16th century Turkish cannonball lodged on the roof
japa21
@Gin & Tonic:
Not sure you saw my question in the next thread. If you don’t want to answer, that’s fine. Have you heard anything more about your nephew? You posted about a picture you had received. All the people of Ukraine have been on my mind, but has he held a special place. You bring this all closer to us. Thank you.
Gin & Tonic
@japa21: As of today he is safe. That’s all I’m willing to share.
japa21
@Gin & Tonic: Understood. Thank you.
Juju
@Gin & Tonic: His convictions and imprisonment for soliciting what he believed to be an underage girl is extremely skin crawlingly creepy bad, and he deserved to go to prison. I should have added that to the comment. I thought it interesting that he could only find work with RT. Sort of a go figure kind of thing.
debbie
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
Have we not already seen precision strikes? What was the bombing of Babyn Yar Holocaust memorial site in Kyiv all about?
Jinchi
Trump doesn’t think Putin is a bad person. He idolizes him. Same as he does with Kim Jong Un and Mohammed bin Salman. The brutality is actually a draw for TFG.
debbie
@germy:
I want to know when Russia will be expelled from the UN.
debbie
@Kay:
Can Russia actually force western companies to remain invested?
debbie
@Old Man Shadow:
I’ve seen more than a few tweets “reminding” others of Ukraine’s Nazi past, so there’s that.
Geminid
@debbie: It sounded like the Babyn Yar Memorial was near the TV facility the Russians bombed, and was hit by a stray bomb. Not that the Russians care.
debbie
@VOR:
TFG can’t even walk to the other side of the green without using a cart.
Jinchi
@debbie: I don’t think any country gets expelled from the UN. It’s purpose is to avoid violent conflicts by bringing (often hostile) parties together in a diplomatic setting. It’s explicitly meant to prevent another World War.
So expelling a party on the verge of starting one would undermine it’s fundamental purpose.
J R in WV
@moops:
I personally would love to visit and tour the archaeological sites of pre-columbian Mexico. Not gonna happen now! There is plenty of ancient culture in other Latin American localities we can visit without giving the corrupt Mexican cartel-ridden government a boost.
Love Mexican music, food, people. Not crazy about their organized crime nor the government, which is pretty much organized crime also too…
The one time we visited Mexico, there were roadblocks everywhere by government troops with machine guns… we were on a big high-end tour bus traveling to our ship for the whale watching trip, so no one interfered with it. I can imagine how ordinary folks were treated, tho. No more.
Gin & Tonic
@debbie: The main TV tower is pretty much right next to Babyn Yar.
debbie
@Miss Bianca:
It’s not Biden so much as it is people whining they haven’t got what they wanted yet or that he hasn’t kept his promises. I could link to an NPR report I heard about an hour ago where people were upset Joe hadn’t ended gun violence or made DACA permanent. He’s had a whole year, ffs! //
Omnes Omnibus
@debbie: Unlikely to have been a precision strike. Unless you think they were aiming for it which is counter to the Russian DeNazification cover story.
debbie
@Jinchi:
There’s a first time for everything, and I think this situation demands it. Let Russia earn their way back in.
debbie
@Omnes Omnibus:
I’ll take yours and G&T’s word for it, but it seemed to me like it was a veiled message to Zelenskyy.
J R in WV
@jackmac:
Is it still “alleged” after you have been convicted and served time before being released on parole? Nope, not in my book. Convicted is convicted, on 6 counts. Writing for RT is icing on the despicable cake.
J R in WV
@Martin:
Ritter has the usual fascist pedophile fantasies of executing anyone who disagrees with him. Fixed that for you. Convicted, sent away to prison for his pedophile fantasies. Out on parole… dunno if he’s still on parole, probably not if he’s working for Russia Today. For which, fuck him with a scythe. RT is Putin’s dog.
Gvg
@debbie: never hopefully. The UN is supposed to be about enemies talking instead of fighting. They don’t expel dictators. They aren’t supposed to. That isn’t the place for boycotts.
LadySuzy
@Gvg: Absurd situation. Russia is still presiding the UN Security Council for a couple of weeks I think ?
Timill
@Jinchi: Taiwan would like a word…
Amir Khalid
@Jinchi:
Taiwan comes to mind.