Krysten Sinema (Clown-AZ) has issued letters patent declaring that she will no longer sully herself with the grimy trappings of partisanship and is therefore a no-labels “independent”. Apparently she will still caucus with the Democrats, so we’ll have a 51 seat majority, but I guess we just have to imagine the most annoying and dilatory actions a senator can take to predict her actions for the remaining two years of her reign.
My mother would use the term “snake in the grass” to describe shitty backstabbers, and I think that term, among others, is richly deserved for this absurd person. I would counsel my fellow Democrats to not be fooled by reports that she will just drop out. This woman is about as high on her own supply as humanly possible, and I’m pretty sure she thinks she’ll pull some kind of Murkowski-like* move by avoiding a primary challenge and sailing to victory in the general as her vassals dutifully endorse her “independence.” Never mind that Lisa Murkowski, for all her failings, puts in the work.
Of course, she’s not a Murkowski, she’s a Lieberman — but even that toad had the guts to actually campaign in person. Sinema won’t even appear in front of an audience in her home state. Lieberman also got endorsements from Democrats in the Senate (who’s going to endorse her — she’s apparently widely disliked) and from other Republicans in his state (again, not gonna happen). She’s a pure poison pill spoiler in 2024, and she’ll love being that person due to whatever fucked up brain chemistry runs the show in her crazy cabeza.
Sinema’s actions make a seat that was never a gimme an even harder reach for a party that already has an extremely constrained path to holding the Senate in 2024. What do people like Rueben Gallego and other high-quality challengers tell potential donors about their Senate runs? How does the Arizona Democratic Party spend the next two years organizing for 2024 with the specter of this Bozo looming over the horizon?
Predictions are hard, especially about the future, but I’ll note that none of our great politics knowers predicted or had early knowledge of Sinema’s move. It’s a surprise, because her office apparently doesn’t leak. That’s predictable, because anyone working for Sinema at this moment in time is radioactive and unhireable by any other Senate office. They had better be loyal to their Queen or the head’s coming off. So don’t believe any political journalist who tells you that she just did this to save face when she drops out. I would bet money at this point that she will run as an independent.
I could go on and on about this feckless clown, but instead I’ll give Arizona Democrats a suggestion: ask for your money back. If you donated to Sinema’s campaign, go on social media and say that you donated to a Democrat who didn’t hold up her end of the bargain. Throw in some examples, like her fealty to the filibuster over her loyalty to reproductive rights. Democrats in Arizona should start a campaign against her now, to drive her negatives to the bottom of the god damned ocean. Her campaign as an “independent” will end only when her corporate backers get the message that giving her money is throwing it away.
———-
* I’m referring to Murkowski’s write-in victory in 2010 – not the same thing, exactly, I know, but you get the picture.
lowtechcyclist
Tulsi Gabbard, maybe. Speaking of poison pills.
Spanish Moss
I wonder, if the Democrats move against her aggressively now, could that make her decide not to caucus with the Democrats?
wvng
I could hear her screaming LOOK AT MEEEEEEE! all the way from WV.
Omnes Omnibus
Asking for money back is an interesting PR idea.
West of the Cascades
I’m sure, too, that she will run as an independent in 2024 – just not sure whether for Senator or President. I think she’s potentially that delusional.
wvng
@Spanish Moss: That would be an enormous mistake and I don’t see Schumer making that mistake.
Ken
Parties should consider the legal equivalent of a pre-nup. Something like, people can leave the party, but have to repay the funds the party spent on their last election.
ian
She is like a misbehaving poorly trained pet. We forgot to pay enough attention to her recently, so she found a potted plant, went behind it, and took a massive dump.
I suppose the 2024 campaign season had to start eventually, since we are now 23 months from that election…
Tony Jay
The GOP’s slow death-march towards an Ivanka/Sinema Unity ticket crests another dune.
Another Scott
The visceral argument is visceral and appealing on that level.
But what’s the big picture here?
We potentially need her vote in the Senate (depending on lots of things**). Picking a fight with her might make that difficult (depending on lots of things).
One thing we do know – Maverickie McMaverick likes nothing better than attention in DC.
How about we do our best to deprive her of that attention? Maybe the DNC and DSCC get bootsonaground in Arizona to figure out what it takes to drive up turnout in the primary and get the strongest possible candidate to do what it takes even if M McM decides to run, and do all the good things without even mentioning her at all. If she’s really still weighing her options, throwing an anchor on one side of that balance may be very helpful.
Politics is slow. I don’t think we need to make things harder on ourselves by taking a public flamethrower to her while we (potentially) need her vote.
** – E.g. if the House is totally dysfunctional and all the Senate can do is approve judges and ambassadors and agency heads, then maybe her vote won’t be needed. Which would actually be yet another reason to deprive her of attention while keeping our eyes on the prize.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Omnes Omnibus
@Tony Jay: FUCK YOU FOR INVOKING THAT THAT THAT WELL JUST FUCK YOU!
Anonymous At Work
What are the laws about independent candidate access to the ballot and matching funds (ha!) like in Arizona? Remember, Liebermann started his own party, qualified for the ballot, and then Democrats took over his party and used it to endorse their own candidate the next election cycle.
Also, is Arizona a closed primary? If so, Democrats should consider nominating their own “Arizona for Sinema” candidate since the GOP nomination will be open and there (hopefully) won’t be enough wingnuts around to handle both primaries.
Finally, this is a chance for Democrats to enforce the party-line a bit more. Try to convince the state party, Congressmen, and other states’ Senators to not endorse her over another Democrat or in an instance where her self-nomination is challenged. Sanders and King are Democrats-in-all-but-name; they earn Democratic support.
Geo Wilcox
Bernie Sanders is making noise again, Guess he didn’t want to be left out of the Independent pol media grand standing.
$8 blue check mistermix
Just to be clear – I don’t think that Senate Democrats, the DSCC or the DNC should mount any kind of campaign against Sinema. Individual Arizona Democrats, and perhaps the party itself, should be pissing in her Wheaties all day long and twice on Sundays. They are the wronged parties here. This puts Schumer et. al. in the position of saying “gosh, you really pissed off your constituents” which is a fine place for them to be.
Spanky
Absolutely. She’s given them 2 years’ notice and they need to use it. The only way to keep Dem voters from being Kyrsten-curious is to make her radioactive.
On the other hand lies Mitch, watching
ETA meaning, you’ve got to thread the needle between preparing for 2024 and containing the damage she can cause until then. I’ve got no answers on how that happens.
Ken
I see that as more of a No Labels offering.
Barbara
I am not willing to game this out. For all I know, Sinema won’t even bother to run again because she seems to thrive on being the center of attention, and I really don’t see her winning as an independent. For one thing, it’s hard for me to see how Sinema can maintain an infrastructure for getting elected without help from Democrats. Every independent currently in the Senate cultivates one party or another — which is to say, they are not truly independent.
My sense is that Bernie Sanders spends a lot of time cultivating local voters and making their priorities an important part of his activities in Washington. Sanders has never alienated local Democrats in Vermont, whereas, that seems to be what Sinema specializes in. The Sanders dynamic seems to be in effect with Angus King from Maine as well.
Lisa Murkowski is the only independent on the Republican side, and really, she would still be a Republican if she had her way. I don’t think Murkowski’s ability to get elected as an independent can be replicated by Sinema. Alaska is a low population state where Murkowski’s dad was one of the best-known pols in the state for literally decades.
Keith P.
What’s the over/under on how long it takes for her to say “I’m not leaving the Democratic Party; the Democratic Party left me”? If not tonight, then I’m sure Tucker will have Tulsi Gabbard on to say it on Sinema’s behalf.
ceece
repost from thread below:
re: Sinema : doesn’t the Governor appoint replacement senators in AZ? Katie Hobbs will be in that chair soon, so maybe Biden should figure out what ambassador gig is best for triathlon training and lobbyist $, and offer it up to the new indy senator. She could be the center of attention somewhere, and it wouldn’t have to be the senate. It’s not like she does any public events in AZ anyway.
ian
Here is a juicy tidbit from her letter announcing her party change
No self-awareness in these words at all.
MomSense
Ugh. As much as she annoys me, I’m not going to step in and tell Arizona Democrats or the Arizona Democratic Party how to handle this. They know their turf better than we do. I’ll support whatever Arizona Democrats decide.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
From Sinema’s piece in the Arizona Republic
It’s like she’s never heard of Joe Biden, and the last two-three years never happened. I know it’s like arguing with a liar and/or crazy person, but….
$8 blue check mistermix
@Barbara:
Murkowski is a Republican. Her 2010 campaign was a write-in, but she’s always declared herself a Republican. Other than that, you’re right — Murkowski’s position in Alaska is far different from Sinema’s in Arizona
Agree with you on Sanders and King — they’ve got long track records of government service doing things that voters like. Sinema, not so much.
Montanareddog
I think she is gaming the incentives:
she could never win a Rethug primary
Before this announcement, she was going to lose an AZ Dem primary
If the Dems run a candidate in ’24, she and they will split the liberal vote and let in the the Rethug
so, she caucuses with the Dems for the next 2 years in the hope that they eat the shit sandwich and accept a hated de facto Dem and do not run a real Dem candidate against her.
Is this not the same situation with Wilmer?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Yep, she was just so upset all the attention was on boring old Wanrock for GA win that she just to remind everyone then need to fawn over her.
Another Scott
@$8 blue check mistermix: Thanks.
I’m reminded of Joe Manchin’s comment that nothing is better for him in WV than big city liberals outside WV screaming about how horrible he is.
Giving Arizona Democrats every resource they need to figure out how to handle this is probably the best approach. I’m sure Schumer and Durbin and all the rest know this.
Cheers,
Scott.
JoyceH
Fun idea for the ‘24 AZ primary. Scott Kelly should run.
MinuteMan
This could be Sinema’s first step towards becoming Trump’s 2024 running mate on a “bipartisan”—the Narcissist Grifter Ticket.
Ken
I’m trying to remember, doesn’t he pull One Weird Trick every six years? Something like, he runs in the Democratic primary, then switches to Independent after he wins so there won’t be a Democrat on the ballot?
Scout211
As I posted downstairs, I am
oftenusually wrong, but I think this is the beginning of her 2 year job interview with any employer that will pay her big bucks after she leaves the Senate. With a 51 Democratic majority, she wouldn’t have the attention and spotlight like she has for the past 2 years. This may give her back some of that attention and possible power in Senate negotiations. I don’t think she will run again and I would not be surprised if she leaves the Senate early for her best offer for those big bucks.But as I mentioned, I am usually wrong.
Anonymous At Work
@$8 blue check mistermix: Murkowski’s father was also the one who turned Alaska from a territory into a state (with lots of help from others, etc. but he gets a lot of attention for it), so she is Heir Apparent in Alaskan politics. Additionally, her work with indigenous tribes saved her in 2010 and keeps her buoyed.
Sinema has no native support like that, only moneyed interests from afar that can’t vote locally.
The Moar You Know
@Tony Jay: It would certainly involve the nation’s first wholly bipartisan lynch mob.
Montanareddog
@Ken: OK, so not the same situation because he wins the Dem primary which she will never be able to do.
But that does not invalidate my theory about Sinema’s game
lowtechcyclist
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Any MSM interviewer who doesn’t ask her, “OK, what legislation should the two major parties be pushing that they’re not already?” should be exiled from all major outlets.
Betty Cracker
Best case scenario for Dems: KS doesn’t run again and is irrelevant in 2024. If she does run, we’ll probably lose that seat. She may think this move will force AZ Dems not to field a candidate to oppose her. That would be the best-case scenario for her, but she’s generated so much ill-will, I just don’t see that happening.
$8 blue check mistermix
@lowtechcyclist:
If she ever did any media that wasn’t pre-vetted, that would be a good question. She just hides out, which is one of her many infuriating characteristics as a politician.
RaflW
@Ken: Definitely Saks Off Fifth label.
Mike in NC
Good riddance. Her next job will be as a DC lobbyist, raking in millions. Miserable whore.
West of the Rockies
I think she’s BPD with a strong narcissistic vein. She’s probably miserable to know in real life.
$8 blue check mistermix
@Montanareddog:
Interesting fact: Angus King had a Democrat and Republican running against him in his last election and beat them both with 54% of the vote. I’m sure Sinema has printed out and laminated the results of the 2018 Maine Senate election.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
I was wondering the same thing. She has that Sarah Palin vibe about her and the next two years aren’t going to be fun for her.
RaflW
@Barbara: Right. Murkowski is a Republican who is openly frustrated that her party has gone nuts. Sinema can claim the same, but there isn’t a constituency on the Democratic side (nor, I think, among former-Dem indies — who I see as low-politics-interest people who may like some progressive policies but hate all the sturm und drang).
Efforts to nationalize The Squad have had limited power, because House members outside of top leadership don’t ever really get nationalized (to our chagrin in the cases of Gaetz and Gym J). Biden is a fundamentally decent guy, caring, relatable and not a flaming lib.
So Sinema taking her picnic basket and flouncing off to the other side of the park alone just looks pathetic and self-dealing (her specialties!). I think unless Jeffies, Schumer (and maybe Biden’s top folks) lean hard on him not to, we’ll see Ruben Gallego set up a run for Senate.
And Sinema will lose, Gallego may well also lose, and AZ could end up with an absolute nutball Republican for six years. It will be Kyrsten’s krowning akkopmplishment.
oatler
@RaflW:
Too Knot’s Landing
daveNYC
@Ken: He wins the primary and declines the nomination, but we’re talking taking 94% of the primary and getting 67% in the general. It’s less ‘one-weird-trick’ and more that he’s really popular in Vermont.
In comparison, Mark Kelly got 51.4% of the vote and he is far more popular than Sinema will ever be in Arizona. There’s some fudge factor due to it being a midterm, but even if the Democrats don’t run anyone against her I don’t see her winning. Who is going to want to do all the GOTV work that would be needed for her to win?
kindness
Shakespeare’s quote ‘Who will rid me of this meddlesome priest?’ comes to mind.
Please understand I am not advocating violence here. Ultimately it will be the voters of AZ who will do the heavy lifting. In that respect though, the die has already been cast. Sinema is toast.
lowtechcyclist
@Mike in NC:
I doubt it. Lobbyists depend on their connections in order to get their clients’ priorities into legislation.
What are her connections? She will have pissed off her own party (even more completely than she already has) without making any friends across the aisle.
eversor
Murkowski accurately and faithfully represents her state and does the job and is not a fucking show hog. Lieberman was and remains a shit lord but he also showed up for the job. KS is just a fuck wit. One who was obviously going to be primaried by Gallego and crushed. Gallego being a person who puts in the work and as a proper Marine loves cursing at people and lobbing threats. It was obvious he was going to curb stomp her in a primary.
KS doesn’t matter and is just making a scene on her depature. AZ will have Gallego and Kelly who are both outstanding and hardworking public servants as well as combat veterans. You couldn’t ask for better senators! I doubt KS realizes that RG is going to put her legacy to shame and that she can’t beat him she’s, well high on her own supply. But he’s going to. He’s also almost a lock in a general as it’s hard to paint a guy who enlisted in the Marines and hurls fbombs left right and center as some PC limp wristed lib.
Good riddance to KS and please let the door hit you on the way out.
Cheryl from Maryland
@ceece: I endorsed that when it was suggested yesterday at Lawyers, Guns, and money. I suggest Italy, where she can get schnozzled.
tobie
Sinema craves oxygen. I’m not going to give it to her. She’s caucusing with the Dems for now, which gives them control of committees. That’s all that matters to me. Unless she has some secret plan with McCarthy and McConnell to get her bills passed in the House and then come to the Senate for a vote, neither she nor anyone else in the Senate will be in a position to pass major legislation for the next two years. Today’s she’s splash. Tomorrow she fades into the woodwork.
Will she run as an Independent in 2024? Possibly….but she will not win and narcissist that she is, that must weigh on her
Jackie
What are the odds of Karl Lake finally licking her wounded pride and run for senator? She, running against Independent Enema (stole this from someone upstairs) could be interesting 🤔
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Keith P.: Sinema will never be a Republican. She’s bisexual. The evangelicals are a huge part of the base. They don’t want her, ever.
RaflW
@oatler: Seems like Kyrsten thinks she’s Alexis Colby, to mix 80s padded-shoulder metaphors.
lowtechcyclist
@$8 blue check mistermix:
Good point. Gotta wonder why she got into politics in the first place, because interacting with media and constituents (who she also famously hides from) is a basic part of the job.
Cameron
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: “Bi-partisan compromise?” What, is that like “half a fascist is better than no fascist at all,” or some shit?
Suzanne
@Scout211:
I think you are correct.
I also think that the AZ Dems should fucking chill out for a little bit. Raise the profiles of Gallego, maybe Stanton, but don’t engage with Sinema right now. The Republicans are also looking to figure out who’s going to be their 2024 Senate candidate. I’d let them wrestle with the pig for a bit. I consider it pretty likely that she won’t run at all, so no need to get fugly.
Jeffro
Fuck it. Run a strong Dem, encourage all Dems and Independents to support the Dem, and let the chips fall where they may. Either the Dem or Rep will win – Sinema won’t – and we’ll be rid of her.
eversor
@RaflW:
I have faith Gallego will win. He’s stellar. He’s hard to tar by the right due to his personal history. He works hard. He’s what AZ needs. Frankly this who Sinema shit just clears the road for him and makes it easier and with no hard feelings among primary voters.
Josie
This is part of a statement from the White House:
“Sen. Sinema has been a key partner on some of the historic legislation President Biden has championed over the last 20 months. We have every reason to expect that we will continue to work successfully with her.”
I trust the old pol Biden to know how to handle this. I suggest we move on to more important matters and refuse to give her any more oxygen.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
If I was head of the Democratic party in AZ, I would basically convince my favorite Democratic candidate to switch to Independent and do a registration drive to have people swtich their registrations to vote for him/her. Then they primary Sinema.
kindness
I don’t see Sinema pulling any votes from Democrats in a 3 way race in AZ if it comes to that. She has no support within the party. She’ll get most of her funding from Republican oligarchs. Dirty tricks will abound. As far as independents go, I think Sinema will siphon off Republican leaning ones. Democratic leaning ones though? Not so much. It’ll all be OK. Don’t stress this one.
Suzanne
@RaflW:
The AZ GOP has been under the control of Crazy Kelli (Ward) for a while, and it shows. As I said downstairs, Arizona is still the place that, up until half an hour ago, voted for John McCain and Jon Kyl for like 10,000 terms each. If they get back to someone like that, I think the GOP candidate could be formidable.
The candidate I would be the most scared of would be Doug Ducey, y’all. Two-term outgoing governor. Very #TeamNormal, very much in the McCain/Kyl mode. Not crazy, but Neutral Evil.
NorthLeft
Have to disagree with mistermix. Sinema will not run IF the Democrats nominate a good candidate and begin the campaign right now.
She will not want to put in the hard work just to finish third, a distant third, behind the two real candidates. Even if the Republicans win the seat, that is preferable to having Sinema as the second Arizona senator…..which honestly is not an option, because very few Dems will vote for her, and ditto for the loathesome Republican voters.
Oh, I forgot about all those magical independent voters. Don’t. Make. Me. Laugh.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Jackie: pretty damn good, I’d say. I imagine her creepily staring eyes amid that rictus-grin Joker face are absorbing every word of this
I don’t get people who say Lake has charisma and camera presence. She creeps me the fuck out
Suzanne
@eversor:
Lots of stellar candidates have run and lost in Arizona. I have no idea why you’re so confident. The race will be tough. Not unwinnable by any stretch, but it will take much more than faith.
TriassicSands
I’d say Manchin, but he’s probably furious at her for trying to take over his position as Spoiler-in-Chief.
I’ve long thought that Sinema would not run in 2024. She’s spent considerable time kissing up to donors, so I figured she was looking for a much higher paying job (doing nothing productive — like lobbying) outside the Senate. But you may be right, she may have her sights set on running as an Independent. (Maybe things aren’t working out on the job-search front because no one really trusts this self-serving flake).
My guess, now, would be, if she follows that path, that Arizona will get an extreme fascist as their next senator. Sinema won’t get enough Democratic votes to win, and she certainly won’t get the Republican base, which is Trumpified. The Democratic candidate will lose votes from mindless Independents and delusional Democrats, and the fascist candidate will sail to victory.
Sinema says she’s who she’s always been. In one sense, that is true. She’s probably always been a narcissistic, attention-hogging hypocrite. However, she started out as a Green Party environmentalist. It’s likely she switched to the Democratic Party because the chances of winning statewide office as a Green were nil. Now, that she is unlikely to get the Democratic nomination in 2024, she’s pretending to be an Independent, which is true only in the sense that all she cares about is herself.
She also says that she acts in the interests of her constituents. Which explains her vote against the $15 minimum wage. The poorer her constituents are, the better their chances of getting into heaven. On the other hand, her real constituents seem to be wealthy donors and they undoubtedly opposed the minimum wage increase.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@lowtechcyclist: She needs a job where someone dresses her in pretty clothes, does her makeup, and puts her in front of a camera
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Suzanne:
If he doesn’t run for president.
Baud
Jeez, I leave you guys alone for a few days and you all start kicking Senators out of the party.
Brachiator
@Spanish Moss:
That would be a mistake, as some other commenters have noted.
This was a good week in politics. It’s a shame that she has spoiled it by this weird attempt to wield some power.
I don’t know how this will sit with Arizona voters.
Ah, well. Whatever happens, right now she still has value to Democrats.
Suzanne
@NorthLeft:
Here’s the voter registration statistics from AZ SoS from last month:
Republican 1,436,852 34.67%
Democratic 1,270,544 30.66%
Other 1,404,385 33.89%
Libertarian 32,148 0.78%
Total 4,143,929
There’s more “Other” than Democrats.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: Do Independents have a primary? I don’t think that’s how it works
Wapiti
@RaflW: Murkowski is a Republican who is openly frustrated that her party has gone nuts.
Yup. To the point where she campaigned with the Democrat running for Congress (Peltola) against the Republicans (Palin and Begich).
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Hmm. I assumed they did, but maybe not. I guess you could have multiple independent candidates on the ballot. Well that sucks.
lee
@Anonymous At Work: This was my first thought as well. In Texas getting on the ballot as an independent is very very difficult.
I would assume someone on her staff knows the requirements in Arizona and they feel they can accomplish it.
Suzanne
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: Agreed.
People here don’t get Sinema. It’s okay, because she sucks. (I warned y’all. I warned y’all.) Everyone here seems to think that she fooled the Dems there, that the voters there are thirsty for John Fetterman types, and I don’t know why y’all think this.
The two progressive Congresscritters come from the districts that were specifically drawn to have large Latino populations under the VRA (South Phoenix and half of Tucson and the border area, as well as a whole lot of empty space). Their appeal to the rest of the state should not be assumed.
Sinema lives in the east part of the Phoenix area, which is much swingier, has a large LDS constituency, and these are people who are conservative but not especially in love with the GOP. There’s a lot of that type of voter there. A lot.
Ken
It’s only when she’s on the plane that she finds it’s San Marino. Oh, and her visas don’t allow her to enter Italy.
And Dark Brandon smiles…
TriassicSands
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
According to Ballotpedia these are the ways to get on the ballot in Arizona:
There are three basic methods by which an individual may become a candidate for office in a state.
An individual can seek the nomination of a state-recognized political party.
An individual can run as an independent. Independent candidates often must petition in order to have their names printed on the general election ballot.
An individual can run as a write-in candidate
So, it should be easy enough for Sinema to get on the ballot as an Independent in 2024.
Cameron
@Suzanne: Sounds like the county I live in – 126K R’s, 80K D’s, 78K I’s. Even though the county Democratic Party stays pretty high all the time on Pollyannoids, they admit that electing D’s here is a very long shot.
tobie
@Suzanne Did Mark Kelly fare well in east Phoenix? He won by a larger margin than any other Dem running in a statewide race, so if I were a politico in AZ I’d be trying to figure out how he did it.
KimK
@Spanish Moss: Exactly. I understand the impulse but Democrats need to control the Senate for the next two years and pissing her off so she decides to caucus with the Republicans would be very bad. She’s unreliable and a total snake in the grass but that’s just the reality we’re living in.
Spanish Moss
@Brachiator: I think so too. The idea of democrats asking for their money back has a lot of appeal, but it’s probably not a good idea. Still fun to think about though!
gvg
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: It works differently in different states. You have to look it up in each example.
Hitchhiker
@West of the Rockies:
I have a friend in the AZ legislature. When I asked her a year or so ago what the fuck is Sinema’s deal, there was a pause. A long pause.
Then she said, “You know how if you go to a party, and there’s one person in the room that you try to avoid all night? That’s her.”
What I keep wondering is how she managed to get nominated in the first place.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@tobie: that assumes Sinema is a pragmatic politician with a pragmatic politician’s combination of core beliefs and ambition. To the extent she has those, and I think she does, they’re overwhelmed by her Main Character Syndrome, as the internet calls it. In her mind, she’s some plucky, admirable combination of Mr Smith and Melanie Griffith’s Working Girl, who Gets It, even as the fools around her refuse to see. In fairness, I imagine the cheers from the voices in her head is very loud.
Suzanne
@tobie: Agreed.
Kelly was helped by a few factors. One big one is that his opponent was a nutjob. I think that, if the AZ GOP wasn’t firmly in the vise grip of MAGA, they could have been much more competitive. (Do y’all remember when Kelli Ward teased John McCain about his brain cancer? A quality individual.)
The Mormons aren’t a Trumpy group. They are pretty conservative, though. Generic business-y white man can have much appeal.
lee
@TriassicSands:
She’ll need 43k signatures to get on the ballot.
I have no idea how hard/easy that will be for her.
RaflW
@$8 blue check mistermix: Maine is so, so different than AZ, of course. A state that can return King, Collins, also do Biden by 9 points, but have had Paul LePage?
Synema the fauxconoclast will not do well in an indie run in AZ. She’s strange, and self-absorbed. But she has to know this.
mrmoshpotato
Wilmer.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I don’t remember the nomination process, but from what I remember of Martha McSally, she radiated a kind of dimwitted nastiness that was, apparently, enough to make even people who voted for Doug Ducey and John McCain stay home or pull the lever for an ex-Green bisexual with purple hair and an aggressively bad fashion sense.
tobie
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I don’t think Sinema will put in the work Kelly did. She’s too high on her own supply. But political strategists in AZ should figure out what kind of Dem is likely to pull independent support like Kelly did.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
Sinema’s calculation may be that she thinks she can force the Arizona Democrats to endorse and support her as an independent, lest she run third-party, split the non-Republican vote, and throw the race to whatever bastard the GOP nominates. And that she can force the Senate Dems to play ball by her rules under the threat that she’ll go caucus with Moscow Mitch if she’s not satisfied with how Schumer and company are treating her.
Whether she’s right … that’s another matter, and we won’t know for a while yet. But if she ever had any good will banked with her peers and her constituent voters, she’s burning through it at a frightening rate, to the point where she may not have anything left when it comes time to stand for re-election.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Sinema has at least one friend in the Senate…
ETA: If anyone ever needs to explain “cringe” to someone not online, link to that.
TriassicSands
Could that be because she really isn’t who she “has always been?”
Or because such a monumental attention-hogging flake confuses them?
At this point, it’s hard to imagine that a self-serving narcissist isn’t thoroughly familiar to voters everywhere.
mrmoshpotato
@Geo Wilcox: Oh? Has that spoiler bitch endorsed the bratty child’s “Independent” move?
RaflW
@TriassicSands: Manchin takes a lot of heat around here, some of which I’m pretty sure I’ve dished out. But my sense — and from political reporters and some close observers around here — he seems like he’s got a Democratic identity baked in.
Now, his idea of Democratic policy preferences is well to the right of the current median Dem (I think!), but he’s a party guy when it comes to it.
Betty
@ian: It is so clear that Biden is an extremist. Has been all his life, I guess. All she was asked to do was support his agenda which she only did when it suited her and presumably her donors.
TriassicSands
@lee:
That number of signatures should be easy in Arizona. If nothing else, lots of Republicans should sign her petition since having her on the ballot ought to make it easier for the fascist candidate to win the election.
stacib
@$8 blue check mistermix: Except, AZ is like the MS of the west, so I’m not sure the same model will work there as with Angus King’s election.
Captain C
@ceece: Maybe some small tropical place that’s heavily into Bitcoin.
Suzanne
@TriassicSands: I think voters in Arizona know exactly who she is and she has figured out a way to make herself palatable to just enough of them. I think she is cynical. I don’t think she is unfamiliar.
I think people here are partisan and assume that more people are, too, and so there is this idea that all those voters wanted a strong Democrat. They did not. Some of them do. Many of them do not.
Kent
@lee: Collecting signatures will be easy. She has a lot of campaign cash. Just hire a company to do it.
As we know from the recent Oregon governor’s race example. There will be PLENTY of deep pocketed Republican donors willing to finance an independent run by a former Democrat simply to ratfuck the Democrats.
TriassicSands
@RaflW:
But doesn’t that mean that he’s definitely NOT a Republican more than that he is a positive force within the Democratic Party?
MaryLou
Hmmm…smells like Peter Thiel was disappointed in his effort to buy a Senate seat using the Republican Party apparatus, and has decided to buy a more electable soulmate.
Roger Moore
@MinuteMan:
Not gonna happen. Trump doesn’t want another narcissist stealing his spotlight. It’s no coincidence he picked Pence as his VP; he wanted someone comfortable playing second fiddle.
Suzanne
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Martha McSally also has a long history running against Gabrielle Giffords, then Ron Barber (Giffords’ aide), before she ran against Sinema. Lots of people didn’t like her for that, because they feel a strong loyalty to Giffords/Kelly.
McSally, Giffords, Kelly all live in Tucson. Sinema grew up there but then moved to Phoenix and the political climate is different there.
trollhattan
@Suzanne: Interesting. In California it’s currently neck and neck between Republican and no party:
“46.8% are Democrats, 23.9% are Republican, and 22.7% say they are independent (also known as “decline to state” or “no party preference”)”
Kent
Thinking out loud here.
But the recent Oregon governor’s race shows that there are millions of dollars of Republican money willing to flow to a former Democrat running as an independent. Simply to ratfuck the Democrats.
Could Sinema be looking at Trump’s example of building a giant war chest to use as your own personal slush fund? This would be one way to do it. Raise tens of millions of GOP money for your independent run, then pocket of the money instead of spending it and then spend the next 10 years going on FOX like Tulsi Gabbard to talk about what is wrong with Democrats?
trollhattan
@ian: At least she toned down the original “shove it down our throats” to “fall in line.” Less of a tell.
rikyrah
For the new Governor and AG, it is known that she DID NOTHING TO HELP THEM while the rest of the Democratic Party was all hands on deck for them.
trollhattan
@Roger Moore: Plus, Trump will insist on “somebody that’s hotter.”
Suzanne
@trollhattan: Arizonans really do fall for that “maverick” bullshit. Yes, it is bullshit, but lots of them really like it.
Kent
Trump also has fairly rigid ideas about electoral coalitions and will want to pick someone to help him in swing states. Sinema is not that person. Back when he picked Pence in 2016, Trump had not really locked down the evangelical vote and Pence was a way of doing that. He doesn’t have that problem for 2024.
If I had to guess, he would do what he tried to do with Hershel Walker and pick a black man. Perhaps someone like Tim Scott of SC who Trump will think will help him in GA, MI, WI, and PA. That assumes Scott would want to give up a lifetime Senate seat to go down in flames with Trump.
TriassicSands
Okay, I may have misinterpreted your earlier statement:
“People here don’t get Sinema…”
I thought you were referring to AZ, but you evidently meant here on B-J.
Still, her claim that she is who she has always been rings hollow. She began as a Green Party member. I assume she moved to the Democratic Party because statewide office wasn’t in the cards for a Greenie. Now, it seems that she’s moving to “Independent” because she expects to be primaried in 2024. That all looks like nothing more than opportunism. It hardly reflects a consistent set of core beliefs (except in her own prospects).
GibberJack
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Wow. That clueless drivel was basically lifted right from the No Labels website’s front page:
“But for too long, the loudest, angriest and most extreme voices have drowned out everyone else.”
Ironically she has indeed labeled herself — as a corporate interest shill and billionaires’ pet spoiler.
TriassicSands
That fits nicely with how ill-informed the American electorate is generally. I’ve always thought that McCain was more of a hypocrite than a maverick, but the media loved that idea and McCain took advantage of it.
I still believe that McCain’s vote to “save” the ACA, had nothing to do with saving anything or the welfare of the American people, but was McCain’s final chance to say “screw you” to Trump. Maybe, I’m just too cynical.
rikyrah
About Sinema, here’s some thoughts about her maneuvering from the previous post:
We won with a Democrat in 2022.
2024 will be a Presidential year. I’m willing to take a chance on an actual Democrat in 2024.
Like I said..there’s a lot that goes into running for office. A lot that the party helps with.
Even phucking Bernie uses the Democrats to run and then does that independent shyt. This ain’t Utah. There is no reason why the Democratic Party can’t find an actual Democrat in Arizona.
A Democrat – not a leftist- that can’t go out, say that I represent Democrats in Arizona, and keep it moving.
It was said that the entire Democratic Party was on board with helping the new Governor and AG get elected…EVERYONE BUT HER.
SO, phuck her. And, let’s get some Democratic Party candidates for Senator.
VOR
I had two thoughts. First, this screams “I need attention”. Second, it may be a blackmail threat to survive 2024. If she stayed a Dem, she would have faced a primary. As an independent, there is a clear threat that if the non-Republican vote is split between Sinema and a Dem candidate, then there is a real chance of electing a crazy MAGA person. Senator Kari Lake, perhaps. This is the political equivalent of a dead-man switch on a bomb.
My understanding is Dems do not run against either Bernie or Angus King, the other independents in the Senate. Dems did not field a 2022 candidate in Utah against Evan McMullin.
rikyrah
@$8 blue check mistermix:
I will never get over that she won as a WRITE-IN
with the last name MURKOWSKI
LOL
lowtechcyclist
@ceece:
Yes.
@Cheryl from Maryland:
Sounds good to me!
Suzanne
@TriassicSands:
Yeah, but she abandoned that shit years ago, she was in her early 20s running . I have been voting for Kyrsten Sinema since 2002. She dropped the Green shit to get ahead (from what I understand, she was “independent affiliated with the Green Party”), long before she ever got elected to anything, she has never been close with the AZ Dems, she always sold herself as someone not really tied to any party agenda. She has been winning elections in this same fashion since 2004. So she is not a surprise. She is a blatant careerist. Even her signage on street corners was purple and green and had no party indicated.
Arizona knows who she is. Balloon Juice is surprised.
Brachiator
@Suzanne:
Neutral Evil. Good description.
As for Sinema, apart from her being a spoiler, I have never quite understood what she supposedly stands for. Someone like Bernie could be annoying, but you always knew what he believed in.
Suzanne
@TriassicSands:
Yes this.
I swear I told y’all this years ago.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@rikyrah: That’s what building up a massive reserve of good will among your constituents will buy you. (Granted, some of that good will was inherited from her father, but she added to that nest egg.)
OverTwistWillie
I’ve seen your picture
Your name in lights above it
This is your big debut
It’s like a dream come true
So won’t you smile for the camera
I know they’re gonna love it,
different-church-lady
It’s like watching one of those National Safety Board crash tests filmed at 300 frames per second: first the front end makes contact, and then sloooooowly the engine compartment collapses and you know eventually the dummy’s head is going to hit the steering wheel…
Suzanne
@Brachiator:
Naked self-interest.
Why is this complicated? She isn’t.
Not everyone runs for office because they want to make a difference in the world. Some people just want to be powerful, rich, or famous.
Balloon Juice is full of mostly good people and so this is always a surprise, because we essentially see government as a vehicle for positive societal change. But lots of people don’t.
rikyrah
@Jackie:
Her versus the lunatic that ran against Kelly?
Let them knock themselves out.
James E Powell
Sinema is an asshole. No more, no less. We should expect her to continue to be an asshole for the remainder of her term. And just when we think she can’t be more of an asshole, she will be, yet again.
tobie
@Suzanne: I’m not seeing any surprise here on Balloon Juice. Juicers seem to know quite well who Sinema and how she’s pitched herself throughout her career.
rikyrah
@RaflW:
Manchin is LITERALLY the ONLY Democrat that can win in West Virginia, and he’s going to have an uphill battle.
Arizona?
We can do better. We can get an ACTUAL DEMOCRAT.
sdhays
@Tony Jay: You jest, but I actually think convincing Sinema that she’s independent Presidential material might be the best tactic. Getting on Presidential ballots as an independent is very difficult, and Sinema’s not a hard worker, nor a smart one.
Have her focus on a vanity independent campaign until filing for the Arizona Senate is past and then she can find out that actually, she’s not going to be on any actual Presidential ballots and is polling at < %1 so she won’t be in any debates (if there are any debates) and she’s done.
Suzanne
@tobie: In 2018, when she won, there was much rejoicing here, and assumption that she would be a solid Dem vote. I didn’t mean to be a downer, but I warned everyone at the time that she sucks, that she is unreliable and attention-seeking. I even said, “She’s like Manchin”. And ever since, there’s been this strain of thought that most Arizonans wanted a reliable blue vote and have found her disappointing.
She has mostly been a reliable blue vote, and if she hadn’t been such a fucking attention-monster, I think she could have held that seat as long as she wanted it.
artem1s
Since she’s not a Dem anymore, can the party elevate Mark Kelly to the senior position with all the perks? Why not. He shouldn’t have to wait around for her to get booted just because she an incurable attention whore. Honestly, I’m more worried about her hurting his branding and visibility in his state than anything else. We need him to be able to campaign and make appearances without having to answer a bunch of asinine questions about her bad performance art. I dearly hope the WH PR people are advising him on how to answer the MSM’s gotcha questions with a Dark Brandon cool smile and quick witted response.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Not a doubt in my mind that was a fuck you to trump, and McConnell.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@tobie: Yeah, more exasperation, anger, than surprise
and I just got my first fund-raising text from (or at least on behalf of) Ruben Gallego. I deleted it before I could check who it was actually from
Brachiator
@Suzanne:
I see your point.
But she could have accomplished the same thing by being on YouTube or Tik Tok.
artem1s
@Kent:
I think TFG’s got a perfect Pence.2.0 waiting in the wings. Rob Portman is a perfect limp dishrag that can be a stand in for Dense. The GOP will hardly notice the change.
Matt McIrvin
@tobie: I knew she was going to fuck with us somehow but I didn’t guess the specific details.
tobie
@Suzanne: I was here in 2018 and my impression was that Juicers were happy McSally was defeated but not thrilled about Sinema. She’d already managed to alienate House Dems by then.
You’re right that she could have had a safe seat in AZ as a reliable but moderate Dem like Mark Kelly. But something in her psyche is so messed up that that is not enough for her. I’m not a shrink; I don’t find her ‘case’ interesting. The only question for me is if Dems can find a candidate who will win enough Independents to win over the GOP candidate and Sinema as an Independent. I’m not outraged because I always anticipated Sinema would pull a stunt. I’m just out of patience.
Doug R
“no labels”.
How’s she supposed to launder her money then?
Kent
@artem1s: Portman won’t help him win a single swing state. Not in Trump’s view.
The Moar You Know
All the butthurt. We just treat her like Bernie and have some useful idiots throw some money her way and we’re good. She’s not going anywhere.
suzanne
@Brachiator:
Not if you’re in your forties. And that’s not enduring, lifelong wealth.
tobie
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: @Matt McIrvin: Yeah, I think we all knew Sinema would do something to sock it to Dems after a great midterm performance in AZ and a victory in the GA runoff. Josh Marshall has said Sinema can’t read the room and overestimates her appeal. I’ve got to believe he’s right. It makes sense that her first TV interview in aeons would be with Jake Tapper. He’s her base.
Doug R
@ceece: I like the way you think.
Somewhere where she can’t screw things up too badly but nice and warm-maybe Spain or Italy?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Interesting review of Sinema’s Senate tenure by Chait
When Joe Machin and Lloyd Blankfein think you’re a Wall St tool….
Matt McIrvin
@Suzanne: I remember seeing friends on Facebook very excited by her election and retaining some skepticism because of what you’d posted here.
RaflW
@TriassicSands: Well, sure. But if folks are thinking Joe would follow Karposi Sarcoma out the door of the Democratic caucus? Naaahh.
Geminid
@Barbara: I read that in addition to her father’s backing Lisa Murkowski was strongly supported in her 2010 write-in victory by Alaska’s Native Corporations and labor unions. Of course her father probably helped out there.
Now Alaska has a new electoral system- a jungle primary followed by a ranked choice runoff between the top four finishers. This is perfect for Murkowski; she is 65 years old but if she wants to win reelection in 2028 she will be heavily favored.
So I am very interested in what she does this term. Murkowski has already bucked her party in the Kavanaugh nomination and second Impeachment. As long as she keeps bringing home the bacon, I expect Murkowski can vote however she wants and probably will.
Dadadadadadada
@Spanish Moss: Doubtful. She needs committee assignments to stay relevant.
Dadadadadadada
@Ken: He said GOP, which amounts to the same thing.
RaflW
@rikyrah:Trump won West Virginia in 2020 by damn near 39 points. There is no Democrat imaginable besides Manchin who would have a chance. And even he may be looking at that and wondering.
rikyrah
@Montanareddog:
Honestly?
No
Wilmer runs in the Democratic Primary
wins
Then switches to Independent.
p.a.
https://www.google.com/search?q=Villa+Taverna+rome&tbm=isch&hl=en-us&chips=q:villa+taverna+rome,online_chips:wine+cellar:J0SZRrOsRMc%3D&client=safari&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjbzpHklO37AhXln3IEHT5ABIgQ4VYoAHoECAEQIw&biw=1024&bih=1248
Hey Kyrsten:
Photo website US Ambassador’s residence in Rome. Not too shabby.
Rome to Milan for fashion shows: “There are 28 non-stop Frecciarossa trains between Milan and Rome each day, making the journey in just under 3 hours. Frecciarossa trains that stop en route in Bologna and Florence still make the trip in just over 3.5 hours.”
rikyrah
@RaflW:
Especially after 2022, with the Democrats winning the Statewide offices.
And, they did it WITHOUT HER HELPING
Bill Arnold
@ceece:
An Arizonan should confirm, but I read that “Arizona and Oklahoma simply require the governor to choose someone from the previous senator’s party.”[1] If it’s current party affiliation as opposed to the party she ran as a nominee of, this could be gameable (and thus would be gamed) by Republicans. And by Democrats; e.g. a Democrat party replacement could temporarily become “Independent” then revert back to Democratic after taking the oath of office.
[1] How do states fill vacancies in the U.S. Senate? It depends on the state (May 3, 2022, Drew DeSilver)
patrick II
@ian:
No. She knows exactly what she is doing. She has little chance in the Democratic primary so running as an independent is her best shot. And if democrats decide to run against her, Keri Lake will be the next senator from Arizona and Sinema will gain a lifetime tenure at FOX.
Tony Jay
@Omnes Omnibus:
I know. Afterwards I felt dirty for hours.
@Ken:
I don’t think thats even remotely outside the realms of possibility. Right at this moment Mark Penn is being paid a huge amount of money to wrap it up in centrist, bipartisan, pro-feminist language that will make donors ever so hot under their starched collars.
suzanne
@tobie:
I believe this. I think she was cynical in becoming a Dem, however loose that affiliation is (and it is loose, has been for a long time).
But also the AZ Dems have been a bit calculating in their support of her, too. The AZ Dem party is pretty weak, but it is improving. Their support of her was because she proved that she can win. But since she can no longer do that, #byefelicia.
A divorce is probably best for everyone.
Geminid
@Suzanne: Did McSally run against Gabrielle Giffords? I believe she ran against Barber in 2012 and won a rematch in 2014, but some guy ran against Giffords in 2010 and I think McSally was still in the Air Force in 2008.
suzanne
@patrick II:
I have to think that the MAGA fever is breaking and the 2024 GOP candidates will not include this crazy lady.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@patrick II: Yup. It was pretty much the only play open to her. I don’t think she’s ready to graze in the tall grass, yet. What Lindsey Graham calls “relevance”– power, or at least proximity to it– is a helluva drug.
piratedan
what am I, an AZ Democrat going to do about her?
not a damn thing… I’m gonna be pragmatic and polite, grab her votes on legislation that matters and let her walk on the catwalk as much as she likes. When primary time rolls around, we’re gonna see who runs (the smart money appears to be on Gallego) and then vote for the best Democrat on the ballot.
For all we know, she may suffer an aneurism of narcissistic fumes that escape her mouth and if so, or she gets hit by a bus or is blown up in a bit of GOP political extremism, then my new Governor will appoint someone who isn’t such a self-serving tool.
and tbh, while her timing is succinctly narcissistic, I would rather focus on all the shoes that will drop on the GOP and see how gracefully they end up being placed under scrutiny by their collective fell deeds and if that throws us into a more active less-cold civil war because frankly, Ms. Sinema isn’t worth the time in the grand scheme of events (of which she is STILL a bit player).
suzanne
@Geminid: She ran in 2012 and didn’t win the primary, then ran and won her primary and ran against Barber (seen as the replacement for Giffords) and lost, then ran against Barber again and won. She never faced Giffords head to head, but Barber was kind of seen as her rightful successor because he had been working for Giffords. So that earned McSally some anger.
Frankensteinbeck
@Geminid:
Yes. Like a loyal Republican who takes a few meaningless vanity votes, but did stand up against McConnell on gutting Medicaid. If McConnell hadn’t been so determined to gut Medicaid, he could have repealed Obamacare with ease. The turtle is pure, mean-spirited hubris.
Geminid
@TriassicSands: Sinema did not run for statewide office until 2018 when she ran for the Senate. She entered elective politics around 2004 when she ran as a Democrat for the state’s lower house and won.
In 20l2 she ran in the newly created Phoenix area district now held by Greg Stanton. Sinema’s Republican opponent called called her a “pagan hippie.” Sinema won and became a pagan hippie Blue Dog.
Bill Arnold
@patrick II:
One wildcard; it could (this is a hypothetical, at the moment) be shown or convincingly narrated that she accepted couch-cushion money from any of her extremely wealthy “friends”. She saved such people upwards of 15 billion dollars; 1/10 of 1 percent of that is 15+ million dollars.
Scout211
It’s Politico, but still . . . “Top progressive firm drops Sinema as a client.” Link
Geminid
@VOR: I think that the decision at Utah Democratic convention to endorse Independent Evan McMullin for Senate was a one-off even for that deeply Republican state. Arizona Democrats will pick a strong candidate to run in 2024, most likely Congressman and Marine Corps veteran Ruben Gallego.
And if someone offered me a 50-50 betting proposition on whether Sinema runs in 2024 I would have a hard time deciding which side to bet.
Mai Naem mobile
@JoyceH: I have no idea if Scott Kelly is interested but that would be a fun race especially if Kelly wins. Sinema is supposedly interested in Veteran’s affairs. If that’s the case Biden should just offer her some kind of ‘important’ gig(not Sec of the VA.) I have two minds about rewarding bad behavior but taking care of the Sinema problem is more important.
HinTN
@Montanareddog: I know I’m late but no, it’s not the same with Wilmer. He actually runs in and wins the Dem primary. Then he declines the nomination and runs in the general (and wins) as an independent. It’s bizarre that they let him do it but there it is
Edit – Yep, Ken got there first.
Matt McIrvin
@JoyceH: Arizona: The Relativistic Twin Paradox State
Geminid
@Mai Naem mobile: I just don’t see Sinema being lured away from the Senate by the offer of any job including Ambassador. There is no incentive. In ways, Senator is the cushiest high prestige job in politics.
Mai Naem mobile
@patrick II: Kari Lake will not win a statewide election in AZ. Forget that. Hobbs was not a great candidate and she beat Kari Lake. The best Kari Lake could do in AZ is have a GOP governor appoint her to something or win a super red district congressional seat.
Miss Bianca
@Suzanne: I’m taking your word pretty much as gospel here, since you know AZ way, way better than I do and you ain’t told no lies about any of its politics so far.
Ugh. Detestable woman. How *did* she manage it all in the first place?
Suzanne
@piratedan: I agree with you.
I have said forever, the best way to make her stupid ass go away is to elect Democrats elsewhere.
Elizabelle
New Yorker satirist Andy Borowitz:
Nation Shocked to Learn That Kyrsten Sinema Had Been a Democrat
In interviews from coast to coast, citizens expressed a combination of puzzlement and disbelief at the bombshell revelation.
Matt McIrvin
@RaflW: LePage was the poster child for third-party spoiler effect. Elected with a minority vote in a three-way race where the same Independent split the non-Republican vote, TWICE IN A ROW.
It’s the reason why Maine has ranked-choice voting now, though as the punch line, it’s been ruled inapplicable to the governor’s race because of the specific wording of their state constitution.
Mai Naem mobile
@Geminid: i think if it was something prestigious from which Sinema thought she could then jump to running for POTUS she would. I was talking to a friend this AM. He thinks she’s going for a lobbying gig. From what I’ve read she grew up poor to middle class and maybe she wants a piece of the good life that she no doubt sees in DC.
Suzanne
@Miss Bianca:
I think that a lot of the things that we here at BJ don’t like about her are appealing to a big enough cohort there. The “mavericky” thing does sell. I think the LDS Mormon mom contingent helped her a lot, they tend to be a fairly pragmatic cohort. Being young and kind of cute in that generic Legally Blonde way helped her for a while, she has that Sun Belt sorority girl demeanor. She was apparently pretty good with the constituent services. And the Dem party helped her there for a while, even though lots of people think she sucked, it’s hard to argue with winning…..when wins have historically been hard to come by for the Dems.
I volunteered one cycle for her primary opponent, David Schapira. That was when they both ran for the new AZ-9 seat. He would have been so much better than her, and he got stomped. He went on to Tempe City Council for a while.
Geminid
@Mai Naem mobile: There is a lot of speculation here about Sinema’s future employment. Many Democrats are fascinated by her as a lightening rod for their anger. I sometimes think that in a perverse way, people cherish their grievances and their villains.
All I know is that Sinema will have plenty of good options as an ex-Senator.
Miss Bianca
@Suzanne: Ah, well, that makes sense, altho’ you’re right – I don’t admire her for the qualities that apparently appeal to suburban Mormon moms (no offense intended to same).
Honestly, I think the thing I resent most about her is hearing that she actually *gave* good constituent service for a while and then decided once she got to the Senate that “nah, I used to care about that stuff but now I’m just way more into plaid.”
To me that means that she *can* do the job, but she’s decided for reasons too obscure for me to follow that she *won’t* do the job.
piratedan
@Suzanne: and to be fair, its wait and see here in the Grand Canyon State… for a couple of reasons…
Four Corners has done a great job getting voters on the Rez to register and vote. Now we need to continue and do more of that work and we’ve seen how this has grown the local political benches by turning Apache County blue and pushing Navajo county into the purple zone. Pima got bluer, as did Coconino and I’m sure it helped in Maricopa as well.
We have no idea on the repercussions of the J6/DOJ fallout from the 2020 election shenanigans. If there are are serious indictments that fall, we could see a nice haircut of wingnuts being disqualified from office, if not tossed into jail. Many of those false electors and the scheme proponents are in the current state lege and form the screaming mimi brigade of loons that have clotted up the courts with their idiocy. Will they be replaced by the next loon up… maybe but if the DOJ steps down hard on these insurrectionists, maybe that will help break the fever and shove more of the loons into the disaffected pile to no longer vote
Also to wait and see if there really is a pragmatic change in how we handle asylum seekers and immigration reform. Doesn’t matter that it has been done, its not been PROMOTED, which cedes the field to the mouth breathers to trot out their scary images of illegals raping kids and distributing fetanyl as if it was on a to-do list instead of the outliers that they are. Local messaging has to be better and results presented as deeds not concepts.
climate change and water….. Dems have potential answers, the GOP has Nothing but more culture war schtick, unless the state chooses to go to war with other states and the tribes over water rights and with Dems in charge at the statehouse and the AG, its unlikely, but no argument that this WILL be an issue, just remains to be seen how the GOP will approach it (i.e. on whom will they choose to be cruel to and take away from others that they believe that they have a right to) because golf courses must be watered because none of these fuckers came to Arizona for much else.
louc
This guy who ran against her a few years ago has some interesting things to say.
Suzanne
@piratedan: The challenge I see in AZ is that there is no real solid industry except growth, anchored around production single-family housing and low-density multi-family rentals. The largest private employer in the state is Banner Health. There are companies, sure, but no big iconic employer (Raytheon is terrible and isn’t large enough to count). Phoenix and Tucson can’t compete with Seattle, Silicon Valley, DC, NYC, LA. Phoenix is much more similar to Las Vegas, which is also vulnerable to boom-and-bust cycles and water shortages. And yet those water shortages are going to limit growth. And Arizona can imagine no other way, and so they won’t plan for another way.
Shalimar
@Dadadadadadada: If Democrats move aggressively against her, Sinema could caucus with Republicans, making it 50-50 and splitting all committee assignments equally. I am sure McConnell would give her whatever committees she wants for that.
frosty
This has been interesting, and I really appreciate Suzanne’s and piratedan’s Arizona perspectives. But I gotta say I’ve spent enough time today on Sinema that I’m done for awhile. Like, months maybe.
Looking forward to the next thread! Or the one after the Harding one; kinda done with that too. Time to go clean the kitchen and balance the checkbook. Or maybe take a nap.
MrKite
@Suzanne: I value your political insight as an Arizonan. In a Twitter discussion of Sinema’s machinations on Twitter this AM, several comments posted the results of recent favorability polls for Sinema, in which she was universally far underwater with D, R and I voters at around 20% favorability in all groups. If accurate, does this change the calculus of which party she steals votes from should she run in ’24 as an Independent?
piratedan
@Suzanne: to be fair, with energy production being so incredibly key and transporttation going hand in hand with that, I am truly shocked that no one (as of yet) has decided to turn AZ into one massive solar farm to sell its proceeds to CA, NV and TX.
Granted, a lot of that open land is federal land, seems to me that a smart cookie would lease some of that property and find transportation solutions that parallel RR and highway infrastructure for delivering those wind/solar electrical power.
They’re making chips in the Phx area once again, seems to me mass production of solar panels would be a good parallel to explore.
Jinchi
@VOR:
Bernie and Angus don’t make it a habit to blow up the Democratic party’s agenda. They’ve been much better allies than Sinema and Manchin.
piratedan
@Montanareddog: two items of consideration:
she doesn’t have the rabid backing that Wilmer does in his home state. Just because the Beltway media adored John McCain as an iconoclast, doesn’t mean that the positions that she staked out in pursuit of breaking with her party… taxing Rich People and keeping the filibuster are popular with people who she wants to vote for her.
Arizona has plenty of GOP lite folks that have been ushered out of office over the last two decades and while AZ is roughly 25-35% independent voters, they have been consistently trending more liberal, while she has been drifting in the opposite direction.
Pragmatism and state trends over the last two decades show that this strategy is unlikely to work”, she doesn’t have the personal cult of personality nor the political positions that will establish her as anything but a nincompoop.
patrick II
@Mai Naem mobile:
O.K. Plug in a generic Republican for Keri Lake. In a three way with Sinema, they would still win.
As an aside, Lake has been playing the game so badly. She is well-spoken and photogenic; if she had moved to the middle just a little after the primaries she would have had an excellent chance of winning. Instead, she is digging herself deeper and deeper into the MAGA FOXhole.
Ruckus
@Spanky:
How much longer is Mitch going to be able to do even the minimal amount of physical stuff that a senator does?
He’s 80, will be 81 in Feb and he had polio as a child. I know a woman with polio, she’s 8 yrs younger than mitch and she’s confined to a wheelchair. Now his experience may not be as serious as her’s was but still, his health will get to a point he can’t do even the minimal effort it takes to continue the job he’s got. And from the looks of it, I’d say he might not make it to the end of this term, 2027.
Suzanne
@MrKite: I honestly think she’s off-ramping. I think that, if she’s an independent, the Dems run someone pretty lefty like Gallego, and the GOP fever breaks and they run some normal non-Trumpy white man….then I think the GOP will win and Sinema will cost Gallego some votes. If the Dems run somebody pretty lefty like Gallego and the GOP runs Kari Lake or another MAGA LOON, and the Dems run Gallego, I think Sinema will get some of the GOP vote that can’t stomach Trumpy assholes, but that Gallego will possibly win.
Will
@Suzanne: Isn’t Arizona getting like $20 Billion in chip factories between TSMC and Intel?
It seems to be by far the biggest beneficiary of the CHIPs Act.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Ruckus: Like Lindsey Graham, Susan Collins and apparently Sinema, what else has Mitch got in his life other than the Senate? power and “relevance”. If your children don’t talk to you, as I believe his three daughters do not, it’s not like you’re going to spend more time with your grandchildren (don’t know that he has any), and he is apparently indifferent to the scent of roses.
Elizabelle
@louc: Interesting twitter thread by David Schapira.
Linda Hirshman [Lawyer, NYT bestselling author, and cultural historian. @UChicagolaw alum. ] tweets back at him:
Suzanne
@Elizabelle: David Schapira would have been an excellent Congressman. I knocked on many, many doors on his behalf.
Elizabelle
@Suzanne: Good for you! So much for his playing fair, hmmm?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I remember this quote from an article about the Dem in-fighting in NY.
I’m willing to allow that Maloney was being darkly humorous about the perks of power, when and if she said this, but there does seem to be a thing about dying in office for politicians, especially Senators, clinging to that office/title to the bitter end, and getting laid out in the Capitol: Bobby Byrd, Strom Thurmond, and apparently Feinstein and Grassley.
lowtechcyclist
@mrmoshpotato:
Remember her showy, exaggerated thumbs-down on the minimum wage hike? Bernie’s the guy who believes economic issues supersede race, gender, and everything else. There’s not a snowball’s chance in hell that he would endorse her.
Mai Naem mobile
@Suzanne: water is a huge issue but i don’t think the Maricopa County is anywhere as dependent on housing/tourism as it used to be. There’s a good number of high tech businesses here now, not least of all Intel and other chip related companies. I think ASU putting money into their engineering school has helped a lot. I know ASU has a reputation of being a party school but its actually got some decent departments. Oh, and don’t forget copper in Eastern Arizona even though its got water issues connected to it.
lowtechcyclist
@Elizabelle:
I’m having a hard time buying the ‘level-headed and brilliant’ part, because unless she sees some path forward that nobody else does, her best possible future is as a Fox former Dem who gets a slot every now and then to dis current Dems.
Not only is that a pretty big step down from U.S. Senator, but it’s hard to see her being indispensable in that role. Right now there’s also Tulsi Gabbard, and there will always be others.
She got lucky in 2018, but for the past two years, she’s been crapping all over that luck.
Mai Naem mobile
Beyond her obviously switching to indy, what really pisses me off about Sinema is her timing. Biden’s having a really really good week and here comes Kyrsten Sinema laying her turd in the egg nog bowl. She could have waited till next week but noooooooo she just had to announce it on Friday the day Griner comes back to the US and after same sex marriage bill to stop his momentum. Just gfy Kyrsten.
frosty
@piratedan: A friend of mine who has worked in solar tried a startup in AZ and failed. According to him the public utilities commission (or equivalent, I don’t know the name) is bought and paid for by the fossil fuel industry. Sunlight be damned!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Mai Naem mobile: not knowing much about chip manufacturing, I’ve been scratching my half-informed head about why this water-intensive industry was going to….Arizona. NPR’s 1A did show on the chips bill and I listened in hopes this would be addressed. It was the second or third listener question. The guest, an exec/investor in the industry, said they’re really good at recycling the water. The host, unsatisfied with this answer as I was, pressed him on it a bit, wouldn’t it be better to reuse water in a place where it isn’t so scarce in the first place, just repeated, they’ve gotten really good at recycling the water they use.
TriassicSands
So, it looks like each step of the way, she adjusted her party to give her the best chance of winning and be noticed.
Now, since the Dems were likely to primary her, she has no more use for the party (in elections) and will run as an Independent. But in the Senate, she still has to associate with one of the two major parties in order to “matter.”
An opportunistic attention hog, pure and simple. At least, that is how she looks to me. And I think the evidence is pretty compelling. Others may disagree.
nasruddin
@Suzanne: You both are probably right. Suggestion for Democrats: Find out (or ask her) what she really wants, outside the Senate, & make sure she gets it before the 2024 election. Whatever it is. However horrible. Senate too important to lose.
cain
@Ken:
I see a labels forming already other than “No Labels” – not kind labels mind you.
Suzanne
If you want to get in on more stories about Sinema being ruthless, Steven Slugocki (former Maricopa County Dem Chair) is about to spill some tea on the bird site.
Will
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: It is very water intensive, but they are also correct that they’ve become very good at recycling water.
However considering the strain the ever growing populace and wasteful companies, I don’t know if it is a good enough answer for locating them there.
The dry climate had something to do with the factories being there originally way back, but I don’t think this matters for newer factories.
At this point I think the real excuse is they’ve already had a lot of talent locate to the area. It’s one of the biggest keys to fabrication of advanced tech. It’s why Taiwan and Guangzhou/Shenzen/Hong Kong area are so hard to quit. It’s not like the labor is getting any cheaper there. That labor cost saving has been precipitously declining for a decade and even COVID Zero restrictions have barely loosened that vicegrip.
piratedan
@frosty: there have been changes at the corporation commission, unsure exactly who won those, but the writing is on the wall (not that it matters much to MAGA) but I assume next election, will involve more out loud conversations about energy policy.
trollhattan
@Will: CHIPs act? Can Ponch and Jon be far behind?
I find this there’s a quote for everything quote awfully precious.
trollhattan
@Will: I see Arizona has 300,000 acres of alfafa. That’s a lotta water.
https://www.farmprogress.com/alfalfa/arizona-alfalfa-industry-gains-acreage-tonnage-respect
Suzanne
@trollhattan: They have so much dumb agriculture there. Dumb dumb dumb.
Will
@trollhattan: Yep, there is a lot of wastefulness. I would want the chip fabrication plants over some moron growing alfafa. Unfortunately people won’t make that decision until they’ve exhausted all other options.
nasruddin
@ceece: That could work. I believe a special election might be required eventually but not sure how that would work in AZ. In CA we just had a nutty double vote for the Alex Padilla race because of uncertainty about whether CA law or US 17th Amendment applied to VP Harris’ seat vacated in Jan 2021.
Looking back at Mark Kelly vs Martha McSally in 2020 it looks like an appointment could last til the seat’s regular election in 2024.
ian
@Mai Naem mobile: Well, yeah… we all weren’t talking about her. Now we are.
I think that was at least part of the objective here.
cain
@Suzanne: Probably important that they put a white male of a certain age that’s kind of folksy.
ian
@trollhattan: Something is wrong with that Goddard quote. Lieberman left the Dem party in 2006, not 2003.
I clicked through and the link doesn’t say what Goddard claims it does. The quote is right, but the context is all wrong. It was a criticism of Lieberman’s then 2004 run for president as a Democrat.
Not super relevant to the broader discussion here, but goes to show the Teagan Goddard isn’t even reading the source material he is quoting from. He remains a purveyor of horseshit…
Mai Naem mobile
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I think part of it is that Intel came to Arizona years ago when the population wasn’t that large and buildable land was dirt cheap in a neighboring state to California. And,oh yeah, ‘malleable’ politicians.
Chris Johnson
@Keith P.: I would bet cash money on that. Moscow is technically NOT a United State, but all the same, some shit is not hard to understand.
Really curious if there’s a treason angle on some of these people who are a particular kind of bomb-thrower.
Mai Naem mobile
@ian: we would have been talking about it even more if Sinema had announced it next week. Why hurt Biden’s momentum? It’s dumb or malicious. I kind of agree with Josh Marshall – she’s crappy at reading the room.
MrKite
@trollhattan: I understand that the Saudis own that alfalfa, and pay next to nothing for the water required to grow it. They apparently don’t have enough water to grow it in the middle east, and view Arizona as a water-rich alternative. /s
NorthLeft
@Suzanne: First Spoiler Alert: just because people say they are “independent”, does not mean they do not have strong tendencies and will vote for someone who claims to be independent.
Second Spoiler Alert: Sinema is not an inspiring candidate that will capture the vast majority of the independent voters.