The Energy Department concluded with "low confidence" that Covid "likely" originated from a laboratory leak in Wuhan, China, according to a classified report, two sources with direct knowledge told @NBCNews. https://t.co/IhnaNJAU3r
— NBC News (@NBCNews) February 26, 2023
Because all science is politics now, the GOP’s ‘investigative committee’ demanded a report they could use as a weapon against their enemies (Dr. Fauci, President Biden, actual scientists), and Rupert Murdoch’s Waahll Street Journal was more than happy to scare-monger the results:
The Energy Department concluded with “low confidence” that the Covid-19 pandemic “likely” originated from a laboratory leak in Wuhan, China, according to a classified report delivered to key lawmakers on the House and Senate Intelligence Committees, two sources with direct knowledge told NBC News.
Key lawmakers on the intelligence committees were briefed last month by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence about the classified report, the sources said.
The news was first reported by The Wall Street Journal on Sunday.
However, one source cautioned to NBC News that the DOE’s conclusion was not being viewed as hugely significant among the intelligence community due to interagency disagreements about Covid’s origins.
The classified report maintains the consensus that Covid-19 was not the result of a Chinese bioweapon, according to a U.S. official. In its assessment, the DOE also described the “likely” laboratory-related leak as an “accident,” the official added…
It could have been a lab leak — the theory is not outside the realm of possibility! Just as there could have been a second gunman on the grassy knoll in 1963! But the odds, from what we know now, are that a spillover infection from the Wuhan area wet markets led the Chinese government into hasty cover-up efforts that have compromised later efforts to track the evolution of the pandemic… just as hasty cover-up efforts by the various American alphabet agencies in 1963 fouled efforts to establish the details behind the assassination of President Kennedy. Any sufficiently terrible event is going to involve various governmental agencies reacting clumsily, because that’s how human politics works. But the Repubs have a new bone to gnaw:
Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, on Sunday called for “extensive public hearings” if the U.S. intelligence community conclusively determines that Covid-19 leaked from a Chinese laboratory.
Asked on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” about what the consequences should be if the U.S. makes that determination and then discovers it was covered up by the Chinese government, Sullivan said that lawmakers must first “have public hearings on this and really dig into it.”…
House Republicans have kicked off their own investigations into the origins of the pandemic.
The ODNI responded to a Feb. 13 letter from Reps. James Comer, chair of the Oversight Committee, and Brad Wenstrup, chair of the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, requesting “information about the origins of COVID-19,” a spokesperson for the Oversight Committee told NBC News Sunday. The committee is “reviewing the classified information provided,” the spokesperson said.
The White House referred NBC News to ODNI for comment.
Asked about the classified report on Sunday, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that “there is not a definitive answer” from the intelligence community on the origins of Covid.
“There is a variety of views in the intelligence community. Some elements of the intelligence community have reached conclusions on one side, some on the other. A number of them have said they just don’t have enough information to be sure,” Jake Sullivan said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
“If we gain any further insight or information, we will share it with Congress, and we will share it with the American people,” Jake Sullivan added. “But right now, there is not a definitive answer that has emerged from the intelligence community on this question.”
– 4 intel agencies think covid spread naturally
– DoE thinks lab leak with “low confidence”
– FBI thinks lab leak with “moderate confidence"
– None think it was part of a Chinese bioweapon program.
Hope the DNI will release what info it can soon. https://t.co/i6xqLiOwfZ— Tommy Vietor (@TVietor08) February 26, 2023
The article also notes the statement was just a brief update on where things stand, less than 5 pages long, and that it wasn’t necessary except that House Republicans have been demanding intensified research into the lab leak theory. They’re trying to force it true.
— Talia Jane (@taliaotg) February 26, 2023
This is, of course, happy news for pundits like Nate Silver, who would rather opinion led science than the reverse:
there's no actual new evidence – it's, per the story, the same material used by the Republican House Committee last year – and this is a *low confidence assessment by the Department of Energy* but the most confidently know-nothing people in US media are jumping on this again https://t.co/E2DbadyhxU
— James Palmer (@BeijingPalmer) February 26, 2023
And I would remind everyone again that this has allowed the *probable* cover-up by the Chinese government – the conditions of, and ownership in, the live animal trade that they were supposed to fix after SARS – to basically go completely unremarked
— James Palmer (@BeijingPalmer) February 26, 2023
And why would this ‘news’ be so important, right now?
There was always enormous evidence that the Wuhan coronavirus leaked from the Wuhan lab.
I’m glad the Department of Energy recognizes this reality.
It’s past time to make the CCP pay.https://t.co/9AJKF3lK2H
— Mike Pompeo (@mikepompeo) February 26, 2023
… Because there’s a presidential primary where the various GOP candidates need a platform to strut & threaten.
To reiterate:
New intelligence has led the Department of Energy to conclude with “low confidence” that COVID-19 “likely” originated from a Chinese lab leak. Julie Tsirkin reports. https://t.co/ExZ0aaZUYw pic.twitter.com/CfCkqVXX9I
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) February 26, 2023
trollhattan
Can we just shut all Trump cabinet members down until we figure out what the hell is going on?
Thank you.
The Moar You Know
Kinda doesn’t matter where it came from.
The damage is done, and it was not handled adequately.
Burnspbesq
Does it matter? We know with high confidence that House Republicans will gin up something to outrage the base, facts be damned.
Math Guy
Low confidence is the technical term for cannot be definitely ruled out.
Baud
Nate Silver is turning into Glenn Greenwald.
Dan B
@Burnspbesq: Yep. They must have their outrage!
David 🌈☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
when did DOE become medical virologists?
Baud
@David 🌈☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch:
Apparently, the FBI is too.
Baud
I’ll never forgive Biden for allowing the lab leak to happen on his watch.
Omnes Omnibus
The agencies that have the least amount of international presence are the ones saying this. The ones with the most are not. Hmmm….
dmsilev
@Baud: He believes at his core that ‘knows a little bit about a bunch of things’ is inherently superior to ‘in depth knowledge on a few subjects’. That’s sometimes true, but when you get a question that’s thoroughly in the wheelhouse of the specialist, the generalist should STFU and listen to what the expert says. Nate hasn’t figured that last part out.
Another Scott
When I want to know the possible origins of a new human pandemic coronavirus, the people I call on are at [ checks notes ] the Department of Energy.
[ sigh ]
It’s the GQPers doing their usual antics of throwing everything in the universe at the wall and seeing what sticks. Next month, it will be something else – maybe the coming new MLB rules changes.
“Biden made baseball add a pitch clock; now I don’t have time to go to the can between pitches anymore!!1”
Cheers,
Scott.
🐾BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: So I should go to the FBI for my next physical?
Baud
@🐾BillinGlendaleCA:
The FBI HMO is pretty affordable if you’re willing to rat on your neighbors.
James E Powell
I asked this on Kevin Drum’s blog as well:
Why are Republicans so invested in the lab leak theory? However it happened, it happened while their guy was president, he fucked up the response, and Republicans led the resistance to mitigation efforts claiming it was no big deal.
YY_Sima Qian
What were the assessments by the NIH & the CDC, the people w/ actual relevant expertise?
Of course, this is all very predictable given that the GOP now controls the House, & there is a presidential primary coming. However, a Sino-US Cold War isn’t going to be all fun & games.
Suzanne
@The Moar You Know: I mean, it matters if there was a lab leak due to insufficient monitoring and/or regulation. I get that the damage is done at this point. But there’s a lot of other dangerous shit out there.
It also matters that the exotic animal trade is apparently unsanitary and disgusting.
Keith P.
@James E Powell: My guess is that because Hunter Biden did business with some companies in China, if they can get the “China intentionally caused COVID” idea out there, with pundits saying it as a given now, then they get to start saying that the Bidens intentionally caused COVID.
eddie blake
@James E Powell: since it can’t be mango unchained’s fault, fauci has to be to blame. they want to connect fauci to the lab and pin the whole thing on him.
trollhattan
When do Interior and the USPS weigh in? I’m withholding my opinion until EVERYBODY has their say.
hells littlest angel
Low confidence that a thing is likely sounds like a rather long-winded way of saying it’s unlikely.
Another Scott
@James E Powell: Lots of RWNJs really, really, really don’t like evolution – of any kind.
What? Some new deadly virus just popped up on its own? That’s impossible! God created life and everything – nothing just spontaneously changes to be something else!!1
I assume it’s a way to tell the folks on Team Inerrant Bible that the GQP is still where they belong.
Plus, it’s a cudgel to use against scientists who want more government funding to do research to understand these things and prepare for the next pandemic. Scientists are shifty and are secretly trying to kill us all!!1
IOW, it’s the same-old-same-old stuff that they’ve been pushing since the Scopes monkey trial (and earlier). The fact that it’s contradictory with all the other things that they’re screaming about is icing on the cake – because it makes people on their side give up reason and their own lying eyes and become victims/members of the cult.
Grr…,
Scott.
David 🌈☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
I’m eagerly awaiting the results of DMV’s investigation
YY_Sima Qian
@James E Powell: Playing to the the lizard part of people’s brains; “We” are victims of the nefarious Other. Cold War w/ said Other makes fertile political ground for the nativist & reactionaries for generations to come.
Cognitive dissonance? What cognitive dissonance? I have seen polls that show the majority of Americans believe the lab leak origin of the COVID-19 pandemic, so the GOP disinformation campaign is going w/ the flow (having created the flow to begin w/).
Suzanne
@James E Powell:
Because it’s an excuse to be xenophobic and they like that, it’s fun.
The thing for me, though….. neither of the two most likely potential causes (Wuhan wet market and leak from Wuhan lab)…..neither of these reflect well on the Chinese government. If it was a lab leak, it’s almost certain to be an accident. If it came from the wet market, it is almost certain to have been due to animals being kept in unsanitary conditions, probably to reduce cost. Both scenarios could have been prevented, or at least made much less likely, by stricter standards and regulations.
dmsilev
@James E Powell: Yep. ‘Trump let China attack the United States’ would actually be accurate if the lab leak theory was correct.
different-church-lady
I mean, I’m not saying it was aliens, but…
J R in WV
And when did the Department of Energy (atom bomb manufacturing agency!) become the agency in charge of defining the course of viral infectious diseases and where they originated?????????
Answer: NEVER, EVER ~!!!!~
cmorenc
Not saying here that the most likely possibility was that COVID originated from a Chinese bioweapon program. Nevertheless, if indeed COVID’s true origin was Chinese bioweapon research, it sure turned into one of the biggest own goals of all-time – China’s own people and economy took the hardest hit from the pandemic.
dmsilev
Speaking of low-confidence, COVID-related, BS,
Doctors who touted ivermectin as covid fix now pushing it for flu, RSV
different-church-lady
@Another Scott:
Well, can you blame them? Evolution is completely ignoring them.
David 🌈☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
I wonder which labrador caused the Black Plague?
trollhattan
@dmsilev: Sure sounds like somebody bought themselves a lot of damn stock.
different-church-lady
@cmorenc: Plus, as far as weapons go it’s not terribly effective.
KenK
@Math Guy: I can say there’s a “non-zero chance” and still be full of bullshit.
dmsilev
@trollhattan: The good news is that their livestock will be well and truly worm-free.
trollhattan
“Does it kill?”
“Yes.”
“Who does it kill?”
“It doesn’t care. Maybe you.”
Baud
@different-church-lady:
ColoradoGuy
A number of governments and agencies screwed up, big time. The initial reflexive cover-up by the Chinese government didn’t help, the failure to curtail international air travel didn’t help, the WHO dragging their feet on declaring a worldwide pandemic (for two months!) didn’t help, and CDC telling people to NOT wear masks (of any kind) doubtless led to thousands of deaths and the eventual rise of the anti-mask movement in this country.
Plenty of blame to go around, for sure. So many deaths could have been avoided if the agencies charged with disease control (it’s in the name!) had done their damn job, instead of waiting for months to come to a decision. A lot of anger, I’m sure, is the result of this colossal failure, a thousand times greater than 9/11, and with no assurance it won’t happen all over again.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
Why would anyone believe it was a lab leak? Is it possible, sure. But every other pandemic in history has been due to natural mutations and often due to humans living in close proximity to their livestock and also encroaching into previously unexplored wilderness and or eating wild game (see-Wuhan wet markets). Side note, if we end up with an avian flu pandemic (in humans, we are currently having one in birds) it’s probably going to be because of a combination of farms raising chickens and wild birds coming into contact with domestic birds Apparently at least some of the cases of avian flu in mammals was due to those mammals eating wild, infected birds.
It gets more complicated to:
Study revives bird origin for 1918 pandemic, link to equine flu
“The analysis also reveals a shared ancestor for almost all avian flu strains and an H7N7 virus that struck down horses and mules throughout North America in 1872. The panzootic outbreak began in Toronto, Canada, and quickly spread south and west. Newspapers reported “nearly deserted” streets in Washington DC and freight piling up at railroad depots and piers in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. “Transmission between horses and humans seems to have been key to some epidemics when horses were an intimate part of our lives,” says Richard Lenski, an evolutionary biologist at Michigan State University i”
And then there’s the NIpah virus which comes from bats, but has also been found in pigs, goats, cattle, cats and dogs ( fun fact Nipah virus has a kill rate between 40 and 70% in humans) :
Trying to crack the sources of the Nipah virus
“Sultana and her colleagues tracked down the sap harvester. And he led them to some friends of the guy who was patient zero for this outbreak.
“They said ‘we all used to drink raw sap in the morning,'” she says. This was Sultana’s aha moment — that patient zero had drunk raw sap before falling ill. She says this helped the researchers trace a line between the bats, the sap and the outbreaks. “It’s a long journey,” she admits. This journey included work over the next few years where researchers took infrared cameras and caught the bats (among other creatures, including rats, bugs and owls) at night drinking from the same stream of sap that people were harvesting.”
Ruckus
@Burnspbesq:
We know with HIGH confidence that rethuglicans will bullshit, lie, make shit up, in any direction, and only so that they can accuse democrats of lying.
My take is as always, whatever things they accuse democrats of lying about in any way are the things they are definitely lying about. Everything else they say we are only 99% sure they are lying about.
James E Powell
@dmsilev:
Right. And said & did nothing about it. Why do they want that to be the story?
Baud
Alito likes to leak stuff. Maybe he leaked the virus.
Ruckus
@dmsilev:
Someone sold a lot of ivermectin production to someone and now they have to unload it.
Gvg
I think the quick response of so you think Trump and all the republicans who dismissed Covid as over blown, failed to respond adequately and were traitors and or idiots has good possibilities.
There does seem to be a lack of thought and a kind of contrariness sort of like whatever the libs/democrats/scientists/whomever I am told is smart tell me I insist on the opposite about this cult of dingbats.
Jay
@Suzanne:
there really is no way to “safely” regulate a “wet market”. It’s hard enough to “regulate” and “enforce” food chain safety in an industrial process. Having all those different animals in close, mixed confinement, kept alive until they are “chosen”, then slaughtered in front of the customer, cross species migration will happen. The wet market stall holders are generally small businessmen, crowded together in the same area of a larger market, all generalists, with few specialists.
Jay
@dmsilev:
on the bright side, they have given up on drinking urine,……
Ruckus
@J R in WV:
Should we still be worried about the DOE because they obviously have at least one insane person working there who should be working for the CDC.
Oh wait he might be already working for lunatics – or is one of them.
karen marie
@David 🌈☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch: That was my question.
Ruckus
@Jay:
on the bright side, they have given up on drinking urine,……
I’m not sure that’s a good thing…..
karen marie
@dmsilev: There is at least one state that is attempting to ban any vaccine that uses mRNA.
I keep waiting for the promised meteor.
Jay
@ColoradoGuy:
the mask thing was pretty grounded. Flawed studies from the 1930’s on had shown that a viral particle that large could not remain airborne long enough. It wasn’t until multiple studies, by multiple teams all across the globe proved that yup, the virus was airborne and could remain airborne for long periods, and the CDC was finally convinced, that masking became a tool in prevention.
Ruckus
@Suzanne:
It also matters that the exotic animal trade is apparently unsanitary and disgusting.
Who’d of ever thought that minimal to zero control of raising animals would be messy, smelly and unsanitary?
I’d bet anyone who’s raised dogs, cats, chickens, children……
ColoradoGuy
The cascade of management failures had a strong resemblance to the Chernobyl accident. Incompetence and corruption causing the initial event, denial, a sequence of different lies and cover-ups, an initial ineffective response, and then, finally, after tremendous damage is already done and lives are lost, the correct response.
As mentioned above, the Chinese government bears responsibility for A) grossly unsanitary wet markets which were responsible for the first SARS epidemic, or B) inadequate safety practices at the Wuhan lab. The failure to curtail all flights out of China also falls on the Chinese government.
The failures of the WHO and the CDC, of course, fall on those organizations, and like the Chinese response, were management failures. These are institutional defects, and there is no evidence the organizations, as institutions, have learned anything from their failures.
Another Scott
@Gvg:
First they deny the science. Then, when reality delivers the inevitable Find Out, they play the unique, oh so special, victim.
It’s disgusting, but not surprising.
(via nycsouthpaw)
Grr…,
Scott.
Jay
@Ruckus:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Department_of_Energy_appointments_by_Donald_Trump
Chris T.
@dmsilev:
This should be the response to every allegation that it was a lab leak. “We think it was a lab leak.” “So, you’re saying Trump let China attack the US?”
patrick II
To what advantage is alleging a Chinese lab origin of the virus to Republicans? A foreign enemy (this time not Russia) that they can campaign against. As usual. What advantage is it to Russia — to set China and the U.S. at each other’s throats even more. What additional advantage is it to Republicans — to make Putin happy.
Ruckus
@James E Powell:
Why are Republicans so invested in the lab leak theory? However it happened, it happened while their guy was president, he fucked up the response, and Republicans led the resistance to mitigation efforts claiming it was no big deal.
That is why.
Another Scott
@dmsilev: @Chris T.:
But it’s actually worse than “let it happen”, if you believe Woodward’s book and the audio recordings. NPR.org:
(Not going to quote TFG – it’s at the link. Biden sums it up well:)
[eta:] Remember TFG’s comments about how wonderful the Great Recession was because it let him buy stuff for pennies on the dollar. He (and McConnell and the rest of the monsters) knew that depressions are times of great opportunity for fascists. TFG was hoping for some crisis that he could exploit to declare martial law and make himself king. He was trying to let the pandemic play out and see where it went…
Grr…,
Scott.
Suzanne
@Jay:
Then they can ban them, if there’s no way to do it safely.
Ruckus
@Jay:
I was having a good day not thinking about the next 3 days here are once again 100% rain, high temps in the high 40s- low 50s, wind, and I have to travel 45 miles across LA to a doc appointment on Wed and you show me that I’m far more uniformed than I thought I was? Or needed to know?
BTW, snark…..
Ruckus
@Another Scott:
First they deny the science. Then, when reality delivers the inevitable Find Out, they play the unique, oh so special, victim.
It’s disgusting, but absolutely normal for rethuglicans.
FITFY
YY_Sima Qian
Saying if the pandemic originated from a lab leak, Trump & the GOP left the country defenseless is not going to be effective. It should persuade anyone rational thinking, but that is not the people the GOP talking points are playing to, or the political environment the GOP aims to magnify. Once you have conceded that the origin of the population’s pain is the nefarious Other, you have already conceded the most critical ground. Then it becomes a bidding contest as to who can punish the Other more. That is not a contest that the Dems/liberals/progressives/Lefties can win, because there is no low that the nativist reactionaries are hesitant to descent to.
Just remember how such arguments went during the 1st Cold War, during the GWOT, & during the 2016 presidential campaign.
Chris T.
@YY_Sima Qian:
Correct, and that’s the point of the response “so you’re saying the Republicans are incompetent when it comes to defense”: it weakens their (R’s) attack. The logic doesn’t hold up at all, but the emotional impact (R = weak) does.
Jay
@Suzanne:
yup, they have to be banned, but they won’t do it, too embedded in aspects of the culture.
Raoul Paste
This is having the intended effect. My wife just read a headline and told me that it’s now known that Covid came from the Chinese Lab
My idiot, Fox neighbour will be lecturing me tomorrow
Chris T.
@Raoul Paste: Hammer him with the “republicans weak on defense” line.
Baud
@Raoul Paste:
Good teaching opportunity on the methods of propaganda.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chris T.: Did it work for the Dems I 2004, calling GWB incompetent against Islamic terrorists? Once you concede the premise, the GOP in Congress is quite adept at setting votes on legislations that make it politically costly for Dems to go against, but which furthers the national zeitgeist against the Other. Such as the AUMF for Iraq.
lowtechcyclist
@Ruckus:
Call it treason! Can’t see how it wasn’t.
If this was an attack by a foreign power – and plenty on the right were making this accusation back in 2020, thankyewverymuch – then the anti-mask, anti-vax, anti-social distancing contingent on the right were aiding the enemy by undermining our attempts to defend against this deadly plague. They caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans.
We can’t make China pay, Mr. Pompeo, but we can make these fuckers pay. Try them for treason, put them away for life! You’d be all for that, RIGHT??
Chris T.
@YY_Sima Qian:
They were. I don’t think they are now. The Democrats are better at hardball now, and the Republicans are worse at it due to the nutcases. Also, it matters who’s in the executive office (though obviously there’s some risk there in 2024).
Ruckus
@lowtechcyclist:
Not trying to defend rethuglicans (because they have zero defense) but while treason doesn’t require actual forethought, these clowns are 100% reactive. Forethought they don’t got. Current thought they don’t got. 100% opposition reaction they got that. ALWAYS blame the opposition, it’s NEVER their fault, they got that. Perfect toddler shits they are because they are only reactive, have zero actual thought, they only have reaction. NEGATIVE reaction. They want a country that coddles them, rewards them for misbehavior and negative reaction to everything. They are crap 2 yr olds in adult bodies. And yes, I’m hereby apologizing to average, normal 2 yr olds.
James E Powell
@Ruckus:
What there a link on “That is why” or is it just blue letters?
Frankensteinbeck
@James E Powell:
Because they believe an international cabal of liberals used Covid to try to force them to Obey, as one step in a vast overall plot to make them slaves. That’s the foundation, anyway. A lot of them got into it after it became a known conspiracy theory just to Own The Libs. We think it’s obviously a bullshit paranoid idea, so they know if it’s true, they’re heroes and we’re villains SOMEhow.
Charluckles
I like to think I paid pretty good attention, but I have no memory of a cadre of scientists using tricks to suppress any discussion.
What is Silver talking about?
YY_Sima Qian
A sign of things to come:
YY_Sima Qian
@Chris T.: Considering where the national zeitgeist on China already is, & it is strongly bi-partisan, I am not confident things will work out as you suggest. I think Chinese Americans (including Taiwanese Americans, & those from Hong Kong & SE Asia) are just more sensitive to the shifting winds.
Ruckus
@lowtechcyclist:
Awww, twas it would ever be so.
Treason against the world, sure.
Treason against humanity, sure.
Treason against science, sure.
Treason against themselves, sure.
Treason against intelligence, sure.
I have no problem with that, the legal system might though.
Ruckus
@James E Powell:
I changed them to blue because someone complained about WG using different colors. I like it because it calls attention to the concept one is writing about. The world is not black and white why should all our comments be?
sab
@YY_Sima Qian: My RWNJ is a Pompeo fan. He also believes that Fauci was in cahoots with Wuhan lab developing potential bioweapon. So who cares what CDC amd NIH say because ties to Fauci.
These folks are absolutely crazy.
catclub
@James E Powell:
Exactly! Suppose it WAS a lab leak. Then our President should be banging the drums for response that reduces the severity of the ‘attack’. Instead of downplaying the whole thing even days and saying Jina on odd days.
karen marie
@sab: Your friend watches too many spy thrillers.
glc
@Baud: In fairness, we’ve all leaked the virus.
MrKite
Well, I have new and irrefutable evidence that the novel virus originated and was transmitted to humans first in the wet-market, rather than by a lab leak. Unfortunately, like the novel intelligence upon which the Energy Department and the FBI based their conclusions, I cannot release this new classified information. You’ll just have to trust me. But unlike those agencies cited above, I am at least notable for my work as a trained molecular biologist.