We’re all ‘realists’ now — anything can happen, and the only certainty in this fallen world is the eventual heat death of the universe. But sometimes, maybe, can we Democrats allow ourselves a little optimism, as a treat?
I have a suspicion. Not a prediction. Or maybe it's a prediction but I won't frame it as such, because I like to be cautious. The basic fundamentals of American political life have shifted and will continue to shift into 2024. All in the Democrats' favor.
— Magdi Jacobs (@magi_jay) August 17, 2023
I'm not sure how else to say this, but I do not think that disaffected youth voting will be as it has been in other elections, like 2000 or 2016. No matter how "old" Joe Biden is. It's not going to be the same.
— Magdi Jacobs (@magi_jay) August 17, 2023
I am not complacent. They can still win. They are too dangerous to take with a grain of salt. But I feel it–this shift in the political atmosphere–and instead of saying, "Oh maybe we who'll have a Dem primary ??" maybe we should just start saying, "we're stronger than they are"
— Magdi Jacobs (@magi_jay) August 17, 2023
I also don’t want to get burned again, but I legitimately think things are changing more deeply than the forecasters have any incentive to realize.
— The Fig Economy (@figgityfigs) August 17, 2023
Odds Biden will win according to:
My heart: 100%
My head: 300%
My PSTD: 50/50
— LadyGrey 🇦🇲🇺🇦🇺🇸 (@TWLadyGrey) August 17, 2023
morning in, and I cannot stress this enough, america https://t.co/9ZhxZyzpOL
— the abbot of unreason (an archaeologist) 🥬 (@merovingians) August 17, 2023
Omnes Omnibus
I have posed similar questions before. A significant number of people insist that the answer is no and that that answer is not actually disheartening.
Sure Lurkalot
Joe/Kamala have brought it more than any team in my lifetime and I’m a seasoned 68 yo. No one is more pleasantly surprised than me, both as presidential candidates weren’t high on my list.
Biden at 80 sees the future. He is building a better America. Fuck that his ratings are low. It’s ridiculously stupid.
piratedan
@Sure Lurkalot: I would not be shocked to find out that the framing of the questions has a whole lot of relationship to the numbers. The media has been known to and frequently does, play up the horse race narrative.
Suzanne
I can align with this. I definitely feel a fundamental shift.
BethanyAnne
I love Biden. It’s probably hard for any American to say that about a politician, but goddamn he’s made a fangirl out of me. Just overall decent and competent and damn he keeps winning on Capitol Hill. Way beyond happy with him and his administration.
Edmund dantes
I’ve been cautiously optimistic about the youth vote being more engaged. They seem to be trending that way. It’s now a matter of Dems keep hammering at what they are doing for them to keep them along.
and complaining about “they should just recognize” or “who else are they going to vote for gop?” is not a valid plan.
Yarrow
I’ve been saying for awhile I think Biden 2024 will be like Reagan 1984. At this point I don’t think it’ll be the blowout it was for Reagan – the country is in a different place and there’s too much social media disinformation and Fox News indoctrination – and much depends on what’s going on with TFG’s many indictments and trials. But yeah. I think the election will surprise the media.
RepubAnon
Fight like you’re 20 points down, and you’ll win by 30+ points.
frosty
Actually, the heat death of the universe isn’t at all certain. An astrophysicist named Katie Mack wrote a great book about the five or six ways the universe could end, based on current physics. One of them could be right now, as in inst
The End of Everything (Astrophysically Speaking)
Yarrow
@BethanyAnne: I love Biden too. I love how he just keeps on keeping on, eyes on the prize and all that. Everyone in Congress likes him, which says a lot. His administration is really great and they’ve got so much done. And he does it all with that sly grin, the aviators, and an ice cream cone when he wants one. He’s great.
He has NFLG about the dumbass media and their idiocy and all the FLTG about what really matters. That shines through.
Omnes Omnibus
@RepubAnon: No, fighting like you are 20 points down can lead to desperate moves. If you are ahead, it is okay to acknowledge it. What is not okay is to let up. Try to run up the score. Try to lap the other guys. Try to set a record. [insert sports analogy here]. People actually like being on a winning team. It’s fun.
NobodySpecial
I’ve been saying this for six months or more, and I’ll keep saying it.
There is no honest way Donald Trump wins an election race against Joe Biden. He’s weaker now than he was four years ago, and a lot of people won’t be flocking to help him if he ends up in jail.
That doesn’t mean we take our foot off the gas – but it’s now not about surviving, it’s about running up the score everywhere. Bury them heading into the 2026 election where they have to defend 20 Senate seats, several of them in battleground states. Immiserate them for the next half decade or more.
Sure Lurkalot
@piratedan: I agree though I have no interest in the both sides bullshit other than reading Driftglass who called it out early and often. I imagine the hollowing out of American universities to be uber expensive trade mills has contributed to this cognitive dissonance.
Ishiyama
“What we need is an enthusiastic but calm state of mind and intense but orderly work.” (My mother used to have that slogan on her office desk.)
dmsilev
Any idiot who says that the Democrats should have a Presidential primary this cycle is either a fool or a knave. Or both. Both is always an option.
Redshift
@RepubAnon:
I tend to disagree with that characterization a bit. Being 20 points down is demoralizing because an election isn’t football or basketball. Being 5 points down (or less), on the other hand, can be energizing — you know you have a shot, and you’re inclined to give it your all.
I’m also fond of “if you think you’re five points ahead, fight like you’re five points behind” and “if you think you’re five points ahead, run up the score.” 😀
Joe Falco
@dmsilev: Or a Republican. So likely all of the above!
West of the Rockies
I’m not quite sure what that last chart is conveying.
prostratedragon
Wouldn’t 100 million votes for Biden-Harris be great?
BethanyAnne
@West of the Rockies: popularity over the course of their first terms, Reagan in black, Biden in green.
Mai Naem mobileI
@NobodySpecial: that TFG can only win if he cheats is kind of the point. They cheat by voter suppression, gerrymandering, disinformation etc. I was listening to Roy Neel(AL Gore’s COS+was a higher up in WJC’s admin) and he was pretty negative on the Dems keeping the Senate or winning the House.and kind of meh on POTUS. I don’t remember anything about Neel although he didn’t come across as a particularly DLC type, just realistic.
Redshift
@NobodySpecial:
And for all the hand-wringing we get about Biden’s approval rating, TFG (who doesn’t have one because he’s not president) is astonishingly and consistently unpopular. No one who voted against him last time is considering voting for him, and a small number of Goopers are drifting away.
That’s why I’m not concerned about “the indictments are motivating his base!” The basest were already motivated, and getting more motivated doesn’t give them more votes.
Joy in FL
@Ishiyama: I really like that quote.
B1naryS3rf
It’s sad that it took Donaldus Magnus and Dobbs for some segments of our electorate to finally wake up and understand this perennial truth and my favorite essay of our founder right here: THEY FUCKING HATE YOU.
Don’t fantasize it’s a done deal by any stretch though. That’s how we got 1994 (Gingrich in charge), 2000 (Bush), 2004 (again), 2010 (Dems stay home, Tea Party reigns, government crippled) and 2016 (Do you really need to be reminded). We don’t know that we finally have a “permanent” (lol) majority yet.
Dan B
I feel another factor is the GOP attack on LGBTQ people. 21% of GenZ identifies as LGBTQ+ so almost everyone knows people. So the GOP is dangerous to Gen Z.
Scout211
Darn! TIFG’s Monday press conference/confessional is officially off.
An excerpt from his post 2 hours ago.
Mai Naem mobileI
Kristen Soltis Anderson talked about an interesting poll about RFK Jr. I don’t remember the numbers but bottom line was that a high number of Dems who favored RFK Jr in a Dem primary thought he was RFK Sr. Dems who knew RFK Jr was Jr and not Sr were strongly anti-RFK Jr. Also Republicans who favored RFK Jr in a poll knew he was RFK Jr(I think this poll was related to NH.) I don’t freaking understand how you can think RFK Sr is alive. This demonstrates a problem Dems don’t always realize. Lots of people don’t know this country’s history. Even people who are on their side.
Ohio Mom
@West of the Rockies: Me either.
NotMax
Daily rule.
;)
Omnes Omnibus
There is a difference between confidence and complacency. I doubt anyone here thinks the election is in the bag and we don’t need to do anything. We have to work and donate like our democracy and lives depend on it. That said, if we do that, we should win. It’s fine to acknowledge that.
Ohio Mom
@BethanyAnne: Oh. I bet a lot of presidencies have similar graphs: nice honeymoon period, then back to earth.
Mai Naem mobileI
I really would like to know the percentage of people who contribute to Biden’s disapproval numbers who are not RWNJs or purity lefties but people on the left who want him to go further left. Like I said, not go way out left, just further left than he is currently. If that’s 5 percent then his effective approval rating is comfortably in the 40s close to 50.
BethanyAnne
@Ohio Mom: The linked article posts graphs of his approval next to the presidents back to Truman (1 graph for each president). It’s pretty interesting to look at. He matches the Reagan one pretty closely, which is the point the author is making, of course. That the Biden presidency might mirror how Reagan’s presidency is viewed.
West of the Rockies
@BethanyAnne:
Thanks!
Righteous Hazard
No matter how badly Fox and the other various liars networks have warped their audiences brains, there is one simple fact: a fair percentage of people whose brains are wired to vote for conservatives, do so because they value stability and normalcy. January 6 2020 didn’t just piss off liberals, it spooked the shit out of many conservatives as well. If he is the nominee, Trump will have conservative defections of people who don’t want the election to be close enough to risk that again.
It will still be way too close, if America wasn’t under information attack, he would lose something like 80-20 in the popular vote. It won’t convince nearly enough of them, but the defections will be enough if we are relentless: We must remind our conservative friends and family, constantly, of the confederate flag paraded through the halls of the Capitol, and the shit that Trump’s traitors smeared on the walls.
Never ever let them forget
Mai Naem mobileI
@Scout211: that’s because his pre-paid lawyers threatened to abandon ship if he went ahead with his presser.
Mike in NC
How many young people watched Trump’s goons attacking the Capitol on live TV and thought, “No fucking way!”?
HumboldtBlue
@Ishiyama:
“Be quick, but don’t hurry.” John Wooden.
NotMax
Day 2: Coo-coo boogaloo.
Ken
In 40 years members of his party will talk about what a great President he was, while utterly repudiating every policy position he took?
mrmoshpotato
@prostratedragon:
Only if it wins the god-damned undemocratic Electorial College from Biden/Harris.
IIRC, 2020 was closer in the college than 2016, ie. fewer votes in 3 states would’ve given Putin’s puppet the win in 2020 than 2016.
Fuck the racist-ass electoral college.
Jay
So, there is a serial killer of Indigenous Women in Winnipeg who has been using the local dumps to dump bodies of his victims.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/landfill-search-calls-movement-momentum-1.6919046
Those “in charge” to authorize a search, refuse to do so.
Finding the remains would go a long way to providing some closure to the families of the missing.
There is a petition at Change.Org to try to put additional pressure on those in charge.
the petition is here https://chng.it/FrPnkrTPcr if you want to add your voice.
cain
Y’all – Donald Jackass Trump is going to JAIL tomorrow. He’s gonna get a photo and get perp walked. He’s got a bunch of others going with him.
CELEBRATE!
BethanyAnne
@Ken: I actually snorted :)
Jeffro
Fighting the ongoing insurrection.
Fighting for women’s reproductive rights.
Fighting to actually DO. SOMETHING. about climate change.
Keep it simple, Dems! You’re on the right side of all of this!
Salty Sam .
I have never been as hopeful about American politics as I am today. I came of age during Watergate, and have watched the conservative takeover of our political life my entire adult life.
There are doubtless many factors involved in what feels like a great big swing of the pendulum, but Joe Biden’s mastery of the policy system is one of the major reasons.
Jeffro
@frosty: ha!
great book, btw! Fro Jr. even read it(!) and liked it(!!), which is saying something.
mrmoshpotato
@Mike in NC:
Not to split hairs, but I thought “WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS SHIT?!?!“
JWR
Joe Biden for prez? Again?! ;)
And then there’s Rep. Dean Phillips. He was on the PBS News Hour tonight, spewing his data-driven, numbers-driven, “instinct-driven” desire to find a primary opponent for Joe Biden. (And of course it’s not about Biden’s age, so just stop that right now!) But why the need? He really doesn’t articulate that part of the deal. Just keeps saying “look at the data, people! It’s all right there in the ol’ data.” The only data I’ve seen is in public polling, which doesn’t have a great record these days.
But the really hilarious part was when he said that the Dems already have a crowded primary field, in RFK Jr., Mariann Williamson, even Cornel West! This guy doesn’t deserve the wasted airtime given him.
Jeffro
That’s just silly.
We have 15 more months of trump-trial revelations to go (which will slowly, slightly bleed his support and the image of the GOP will suffer as well)
Eventually, the GOP has to have a nominee, and if it’s trump, 20% of the party will not turn out. If it’s not trump, 30% of the party will not turn out. And either way, it will have an effect down-ballot as well.
I like our chances!
tokyokie
@Scout211:
In other words, he’s got bupkis.
Scout211
Trump’s legal team seeks to delay federal election interference trial until 2026
IANAL, but that sure seems to me like a pie-in-the sky ask.
Jeffro
@NotMax: man…that’s just a LOT of work to avoid saying his guy lost and is going to keep losing. “Well, we’re going to do drone wi-fi verification of polling sites and the devices that are near them and…and…and…” (eye roll)
It’s almost a game show question at this point: “To what lengths will MAGA true believers go in order to deny electoral reality?”
<bzzzt>
“All of them, Katie. All of the lengths.”
Yarrow
@JWR: He was on MTP last Sunday. He’s the first Dem Rep in his district since 1958 and he’s doing this to say to his constituents who voted for him but aren’t solid Dems that he “called for a primary.” Or some bullshit. He knows it’s not happening.
Jeffro
I mentioned in the last thread that it’s pure SNL material, just waiting to be written up as a skit.
“Your honor, we request that the trial be moved…to January 3041”
“No? How about October 2987?”
“March 2875 and that’s our final offer”
Ken
@Scout211: If anything, the trial date will move in the other direction. He’s been holding rallies and shitposting, which Judge Chutkan as good as said will be treated as evidence he’s finished with discovery.
mrmoshpotato
@JWR: Forget it, JWR. It’s SnoozeHour.
mrmoshpotato
@Scout211: Head-up-your-ass ask. :)
NotMax
Maui update (excerpts from various reports).
different-church-lady
Well, actually….
Ken
Delightful thought. Are you basing that on the Georgia law that to get bail, defendants have to satisfy the court that they won’t interfere with the process? (I think it’s something like that.)
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax:
Good to hear, and nice kick in the nuts to the unregulated “hotel industry.”
different-church-lady
@Omnes Omnibus: Fine. WORK like you’re 20 points down then.
different-church-lady
There’s a whole lot of people who don’t know that Reagan’s aura of invincibility happened in retrospect.
NotMax
@Jeffro
Also too, voting machines have no connectivity to the internet, by wi-fi or otherwise.
different-church-lady
@NotMax:
At this rate it can’t be long before the pillows are covered in tinfoil.
gene108
@Redshift:
TFG has a hard floor of support, which the 2016 and 2020 elections and current polling shows to be between 40% to 45% of the electorate, at a minimum. This means TFG always has a shot at winning the EC, if a few states break his way, like they did in 2016.
Maybe some guilty verdicts from his upcoming trials might change this, but so far his supporters seem unfazed by anything he’s done.
anitamargarita
@BethanyAnne: totally agree. I think if Biden had won in his earlier bids t be President, he would have been an ok, in step with the times president. His years in the Senate, and especially his 8 years as Obama’s VP, prepared him to meet this moment.
NotMax
@different-church-lady
“For a mere $49.95 more, your pillow’s filling will include a bubble wrapped splinter from the True Cross.”
//
wjca
@NobodySpecial:
Be very, very careful to keep it up thru the 2030 election. Especially in the state legislatures. If you’re not in control of the next redistricting, you are just asking for big trouble.
BellyCat
We are in the “animal chews off leg to attempt to escape the trap” phase. The animal is the GOP. It’s leg is Trump.
I’m here for all of it. Time to remedy the ultimately disabling power afforded to treasonous bastards following the Civil War.
Off topic: Anyone see Fiona Apple’s apology for canceling her tour because her dog is dying. It is amazing.
JWR
@Yarrow:
I remember someone, probably someone here, saying just that, which goes a long way toward explaining his “it’s in the data, man” malarkey.
Burnspbesq
@Omnes Omnibus:
Dunk on them in every election, starting with New Jersey and Virginia this fall, until they understand that if they keep going down the path they’re on, they’ll be marginalized for decades.
different-church-lady
@JWR:
The polling itself wasn’t so off last time out. But the reporting on the polling missed by a mile.
Timill
@Jeffro: “In the year 2525…”
wjca
@Scout211:
I’m guessing they figure the judge will try to appear “fair” and split the difference. Giving them a year of further delay. But I’m guessing the judge will be sufficiently put out by the frivolous suggestion to go with the prosecution’s (aggressive) ask. Oops.
BellyCat
@Mai Naem mobileI:
My first thought as well. And one can be damn sure their contract stipulated that the retainer would not be refunded if their client acted out, contrary to their guidance.
laura
I appreciate this post of cautious optimism, and I think there is a lot of work to be done to both get out the vote but just as important to be vigilant about the variety of voter suppression- moving and closing polls, challenging voters, clearing rolls, all of this and more especially in the states that can have a disproportionate impact on the electoral college.
HumboldtBlue
And now for something completely different.
NotMax
@Mai Naem mobileI
“But- but – that’s cancel culture!”
//
Burnspbesq
@tokyokie:
As I said somewhere else earlier this evening, the most likely “filing” to contain the supposed “irrefutable evidence” is a habeas petition, filed pro se by an inmate at FCI Cumberland sometime in late 2026 or early 2027. It will be written in crayon on paper torn from a spiral notebook, and will ask for a waiver of the filing fee because the petitioner has no money.
Lyrebird
Some of the teens and young adults I know are more susceptible to the social media propaganda going around, but on this point – I am so happy. I have a friend teaching in a struggling urban school district, and kids there can be very socially conservative. Their students mostly have an “oh yeah whatevs” reaction to fellow students being out as LGBTQ, though, not hate.
Some things do change for the better!
And hey, dance like you’re out in the rain with Madam VP and a cool umbrella!
hueyplong
@gene108: The phrase “40 to 45 percent of the vote” is doing a lot of work. Mondale got 40.6 percent. I’d be ok with Trump doing that.
wjca
@Burnspbesq:
Probably best not to get your hopes up for being marginalized bringing them to their senses. Here in California they’ve been exactly that for three decades now. With no obvious inclination to return to sanity in the interests of ever winning again.
Mai Naem mobileI
@Jeffro: i am guessing that if you were intimately involved in the losing side of Bush v. Gore you’re always on the pessimistic side of the chances of Dems in any election.
HumboldtBlue
@wjca:
They think they’re gonna get the school boards like red states, and just like their chances for statewide elected office, that ain’t gonna fucking happen.
S Cerevisiae
@hueyplong: I was one of those Mondale votes in the only state that he won, Fritz was a good man. I just missed being able to vote for Carter, I couldn’t stand Reagan.
prostratedragon
Scout211@52: My gut response was that it was downright offensive. Then one of the MSNBC lawyers pointed out that they cited Powell vs Alabama — the Scottsboro Boys case — in support of their ridiculous proposal.
BeautifulPlumage
@NotMax: the bartender where I’m at is convinced that the fire was an intentional “energy burst” to clear the area for a preplanned “smart city” where you won’t be able to leave unless you’re ‘good’.
How else to explain the water didn’t work and the sirens weren’t used???? Aaarrrrgh
jonas
@Mai Naem mobileI:
Well, I suppose if you support RFK Jr, you’re probably also a person liable to think that RFK’s assassination was faked that that his brain had been transplanted into a young boy, who is now running for president. And will choose Elvis as a running mate.
JGreen
@HumboldtBlue:
Ok, true story. My family and I went to a big Super Bowl watching party in the neighborhood in 1995, I believe. It was one of those years when the 49ers wiped out the opponents (I’m from the SF Bay Area–Go Niners!). Although I don’t understand why Super Bowl commercials are treated as a big deal, one of them that year was to feature Paul Newman.
The commercial came on in the fourth quarter when the outcome was no longer in doubt. As I remember, Paul Newman was just riding a motorcycle; he didn’t say anything, but as soon as the commercial came on, every woman of around my mother’s age yelled “IT’S PAUL NEWMAN!!”. He really did have that effect on women.
SpaceUnit
This thread gets five stars.
Polls have become a reliable indicator of what corporate boardrooms across America want people to think. The rich old white men that haunt those boardrooms may not be the same illiterate trump-trash that show up at the rallies with misspelled signs but they’re lifelong Republicans of the Chamber of Commerce variety and they sure as fuck don’t wanting anyone to get the idea that a Democrat could be popular.
Their polls are bullshit but it’s all they’ve got left. Let’s roll.
BeautifulPlumage
@SpaceUnit: why should we believe an AI robot?
SpaceUnit
@BeautifulPlumage:
Nice try, Fleshy.
hueyplong
@S Cerevisiae: I also voted for Mondale, who got about 85% of the vote in my precinct (in SF). Don’t feel like talking about the statewide numbers.
mvr
whereafter the quote continues
jonas
What these polls — or at least the reporting on them — fail to capture is exactly *why* people are dissatisfied with the president’s performance. Trump spent most of his presidency in the high 30’s-low 40’s because a majority of the country thought he was a horrible, corrupt asshole who was unqualified to be president. I think Biden’s numbers are low because people are still pessimistic about the economy, despite the broader numbers (unemployment, stock market, job growth) being pretty damn good overall, but still think he personally is a pretty ok guy. I think that means that while people will tell pollsters they don’t think things are headed in the right direction, they aren’t necessarily clamoring for a return of Trump. Normally, this would be an ideal opening for the GOP, but they’ve royally fucked themselves by becoming so synonymous with Trump that the people *running against him* in the primary can’t bring themselves to say anything negative about him (except for totally irrelevant people like Christie).
SpaceUnit
@jonas:
Yeah. Also, polls have come to represent what Big Money and the MSM Horserace Industry need. I don’t trust them worth a damn. They were way off in 2022 with their insistence on a big red wave.
Citizen Alan
@B1naryS3rf: Jumping back to that post from 2012 you linked to was almost breathtaking. A post about how bad the Teabaggers were 10 years ago is almost quaint in light of what’s happened since.
TeezySkeezy
@SpaceUnit: Polls are as real as birds.
Citizen Alan
@Mai Naem mobileI: Jesus. Great, so we have fucking morons on our side too. Who was the Dem Speaker of the House who got voted out off office because, according to polls, the majority of voters in his district thought whoever won would be the Speaker? Daschle, maybe?
mvr
@Citizen Alan: Daschle was Senate Majority Leader. Are you thinking of Tom Foley?
Jay
@BeautifulPlumage:
Officials decided not to use the sirens, as they are predominantly a tsunami alert. That would cause people to head to high ground, right into the fires.
Citizen Alan
@Salty Sam .: I like to say that I was born in August of 1969, seven months into Nixon’s first term. Which means that there has never been a moment of my life when the Republicans weren’t trying to destroy America,
BeautifulPlumage
@SpaceUnit: that’s meat puppet to you. Good day.
Mike in NC
@NotMax: Lindell should hawk his crappy pillows with an extra: buy one and get a copy of one of the many classified documents that Fat Bastard stole. Complete with Certificate of Authenticity.
SpaceUnit
@TeezySkeezy:
I’m still on the bubble regarding birds.
jonas
So we need to ask what the chances of that happening again are, particularly after we saw how things went in 2020? What swings the pendulum back towards Trump in places like PA and MI, even after he’s been indicted a million times? What voters who went for Biden in 20 are going to look at Trump sitting glumly in a courtroom day after day and say “Yeah, we need that mojo back!”?
I think it’s going to come down to turnout — can Dems keep their coalition together and motivated like in 20 and 22? Trump’s hard core supporters will crawl over broken glass to vote for him and we can’t do anything about that, but hopefully there are ways to persuade other Republicans and conservative independents to stay home in the meantime.
BeautifulPlumage
@Jay: I get that, but miss conspiracy had those thoughts…
ETD I did not ask about vaccines or 9/11
Hoppie
There are turning points, and there are sea changes. I hope/feel/believe we are in a sea change. For my granddaughter’s sske, if nothing else.
Jackie
@NobodySpecial: 100% agree. Biden’s in for the WIN!
teezyskeezy
@SpaceUnit: Only a fool could still be on the fence about the nature of birds. They’ve clearly all been robots since 1962. ;-)
SpaceUnit
@teezyskeezy:
But crows are really cool.
Jay
@BeautifulPlumage:
I take it that Miss Conspiracy doesn’t live in an area that regularly has to deal with alerts.
When we lived at The Place, every spring I would clear out the fire lines, down to bare earth. Then I would clear the FSR, because we had only two roads out. The second road was a 4×4 service “road” for the pipeline, our only way out if fires swept south. In our “go bags” I had a cordless angle grinder, with 4 batteries, because there were 4 steel gates on the pipeline access road, that would have had to have been cut open, if TSHTF.
Lived that for 20 years. Ready to bail on everything at a moments notice.
BeautifulPlumage
OT: the small park I live in is trying to upgrade the septic system so we’re supposed to have the water off Mon & The this week. They brought in porta-potty / hand washing stations, but the contractor is behind schedule so the water is still on. Yet, folks have been using the porta- potties since Monday* & this is why I hate people.
* after working many beer festivals it’s easy to recognize the sound of a porta-potty door slamming shut when someone leaves
BeautifulPlumage
@Jay: This, this. This is how you prepare. And the nature of good prep is doing it despite maybe never needing it.
Sebastian
Liz Cheney just dropped the mother of all document drops. The entire J6 evidence, documents, exhibits, transcripts, and the 800 pages report
https://www.govinfo.gov/collection/january-6th-committee-final-report?path=/GPO/January%206th%20Committee%20Final%20Report%20and%20Supporting%20Materials%20Collection
Aussie Sheila
@SpaceUnit:
Not a Usaian, but my sentiments exactly. The Biden/Harris admin has been the best in my political lifetime, hands down. Deeply impressed with the political and managerial competence of it. At all levels, foreign and domestic.
If I could, and I understand why it isn’t possible or even desirable to do so, I would donate to the best Dem organisation concentrating on registering, and organising 18-30 year olds to vote.
I also feel that 2024 is going to be a good year for Dems, assuming the fundamental work in your kind of polity is done.
Which I am confident it will.
mvr
@Sebastian: Were these not available before?
lgerard
@SpaceUnit:
Not when there are a murder of them in your backyard screaming bloody murder at 4 AM every morning
RaflW
“Can we not recognize the objective state of the other sides’ weakness while also committing to action? I think we can. They are weak. We are strong.”
Amen. And part of what we can do is weave together the ways that the right is weak. Heck, the raiding of that Kansas newspaper, while on one level is frightening, it’s also a sign of desperation. Those crooked cops didn’t pull that because they’re powerful, they did it because they’re terrified of the simple printing of the written word.
Magdi is right that there is plenty of work to do. But we can definitely do it.
Philbert
The only President who stayed popular was Eisenhower. The Depression/WW2 were a real and universal experience. But that was another time, we have separate realities now.
Eolirin
@laura: We currently fully control the executive branches of every single swing state we need to win the EC in 2024. Georgia is the only one we won in 2020 that we don’t have control over even.
But man, I think Texas and Florida and North Carolina would be much more in play if we could stop the voter suppression there. And then we’d not only have a lock on the EC but also on the Senate. If we can somehow squeak out a win in Montana this cycle, I think we have a real shot at getting voting rights laws passed and if we can get those implemented, man it could change everything. I just don’t want to get my hopes up too much on that front. It’s going to be a harder fight than winning the Presidency.
Eolirin
@jonas: There’s also demographic shift, given the way Gen Z and Millennials break for dems. Every year more people over 65 die off, and more young people hit voting age. This is going to drive a massive shift in the medium term we just have to survive long enough to get to it.
RaflW
@Scout211: LOL, yeah, right, Donnie.
There is no report. We knew that.
SpaceUnit
@Aussie Sheila:
I absolutely agree.
Also, you Aussies were incredible at the World Swimming Championships two weeks ago in Japan. Congratulations!
Anoniminous
@mrmoshpotato:
The Electoral College was specifically created so that states with large populations couldn’t outvote states with small populations.
Moral: the Founding Fathers were, by-and-large, slave owning assholes.
BeautifulPlumage
@RaflW:
THIS. THIS. THIS
Thank you for the succinct reminder.
SpaceUnit
@lgerard:
It’s funny, but I actually find the sound of crows to be extremely relaxing and pleasant.
Anoniminous
@different-church-lady:
Nationwide popular vote is meaningless. Electoral margins in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin were 0.31%, 0.24%, and 0.63%. An unlucky D to R swap of ~45,000 votes and Trump is re-elected.
Sebastian
@mvr:
From what I am hearing not all in one place. The hearings were/are on YouTube.
The person who posted it on Threads might be wrong, though.
Aussie Sheila
@SpaceUnit:
Thanks. I used to be quite the amateur swimmer in my long distant youth. I still love it, but alas, not quite as good as I used to be!
Returning to the thread at hand, I truly hope the Dems are spending big right now on registering and organising voters, not just in swing states, which is of course important, but also investing in states that could ‘grow’ politically towards the Dems in the next couple of cycles. I know how hard political organising can be, but compared to the US I feel I don’t really know how hard, even after all these years!
Oh and the best Crow songs are the songs Magpies sing. Try yt for some restful and joyous singing.
BeautifulPlumage
@SpaceUnit: Well ArtI 60801SU, you would.
Eolirin
@Anoniminous: That’s not really true. The EC lets large states outvote smaller states, even if the balance is a little off. While, say, Nebraska, gets more EC votes per capita than California, it doesn’t get so many more that it makes up for its ridiculously low population. What’s fucked us about the EC hasn’t been an issue of small state versus big state, but a consequence of the first past the post way of determining who gets the EC votes from a state turning states that are both high(ish) population and closely divided into the only states that matter.
The Senate was the truly anti-democratic institution, and may be a thorn in our side for a lot longer than the EC is an issue; if WI, MI and PA go back to being solid blue states and we firm up our grip on Nevada, and Arizona and Georgia continue to follow the path Virginia has, at some point in the near future the Republicans won’t have a viable electoral map. Let alone if we ever flip Texas. But even with an unassailable EC map, holding the Senate is really hard. And holding it in a way that lets us actually pass legislation even harder.
mvr
@Sebastian: I think it may have been there a while. It is a government website and I believe the committee released this stuff before the new term so that the Rs would not bury it. So my best theory is that the Cheney tweet was a link to something already released by the whole committee or the whole house in 2022.
Anoniminous
@Eolirin:
“At the Constitutional Convention of 1787, delegates from larger states believed each state’s representation in the newly proposed Senate should be proportionate to population.
Smaller states with lower populations argued that such an arrangement would lead to an unfair dominance of larger states in the new nation’s government, and each state should have equal representation, regardless of population.
The disagreement over representation threatened to derail the ratification of the U.S. Constitution since delegates from both sides of the dispute vowed to reject the document if they didn’t get their way. The solution came in the form of a compromise proposed by statesmen Roger Sherman and Oliver Ellsworth of Connecticut.”
“The principle of protecting small states through equal representation in the Senate carries over into the electoral college, which elects the president since the number of electoral votes designated to each state is based on a state’s combined number of representatives in the House and Senate.
That means, for example, even though Wyoming only has three votes in the electoral college, with the smallest population of all the states, each elector represents a far smaller group of people than each of the 55 electoral votes in the most populous state of California.”
Source
Sister Golden Bear
@HumboldtBlue:
The school boards in (banned history book because Harvey Milk was mentioned) and Chino (implemented anti-trans policy) beg to differ.
They’ve been doing that since I was in high school and the Christianists took over my school board. Though usually they overreach and get voted out later.
Eolirin
@Anoniminous: Sure, but I’m saying in practice it doesn’t actually protect the smaller states.
Like at all.
The magnitude of population imbalances in the modern era along with the expansion of the house, swamp the effect completely. Getting rid of the first past the post is more important than getting rid of the EC in terms of getting fairer outcomes.
And even the formulation of the EC wasn’t about what you quoted, since that’s talking more directly about the Senate/House compromise, and the smaller states only benefited from it incidentally with respect to the EC; proportional representation still made it in to the EC, and that’s what leads to the current dynamic of small states being almost entirely irrelevant everywhere but the Senate.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
As an example the Right really knows they’ve done and screwed the pooch, I’ve been seeing conservatives trying to claim it was really the Left who were taken in by Putin, but the Right was wise to him all along. lol
Nettoyeur
@Mai Naem mobileI: Some Dems ar so dumb that they think RFK Sr is still alive? Crikey, he was assassinated on TV and you can probably find the video on the Internet.
Ruckus
@Omnes Omnibus:
On the surface I disagree with you, it is disheartening.
But upon slight reflection, which to me is what it takes, it really isn’t/shouldn’t be disheartening. The country is doing pretty good. We have a president who has gotten a hell of a lot done. Sure we have an opposition party who seems to have completely lost the fucking plot and thinks they are in it for the hate, the racism, the code words, the dumbass shit they want to reelect because he’s the worst human they could find – who is running on the hope that he gets reelected before the gallows is finished, or he gets to start a civil war so that he stays out of jail(s) for the rest of his shitty life.
We the people, All of us, left or right, deserve far better than shitforbrains. This failure of a human being seems to be the guiding 10watt bulb of the failure practitioners of the US, those that have nothing to lose and nothing to gain, but think they are the exact opposite. The dumbass squad that wouldn’t know or understand the actual concept, constitution, reality of this country. We are at a crossroads here, except we seem to have the momentum and they are running around with their hair on fire, because they have chosen an idiot for their leader, not realizing that he dislikes them more than we do, not realizing that he is scamming them out of millions to protect his own dumb ass but he’s in so much deeper than he’s ever been before that he’s likely to drown in his own effluent.
JWR
@Jay:
My first instinct was to take this as a given, but the more I thought about it, had the sirens sounded, even if people had raced towards the fire, it wouldn’t take long to see or smell the flames and correct course, because FIRE! My point being that at the very least, more people would’ve been awake. So if the decision not to sound the alarm was a completely human one, I can see why the head of that department just tendered his resignation.
Ruckus
@Sure Lurkalot:
I LIKE Joe Biden. I like him for president. He’s doing exceedingly well for his age, better than most I know his age and I live in a senior’s apt complex and I’m not all that far behind him. He has been one of the best presidents in my reasonably long life. He gets the work done because he knows how it works, in both branches. And because he knows what it’s like to be the guy that rides the train home from work. His ego isn’t so big that it actually fits easily through the door. We are used to the people that are great in the limelight and decent behind the desk. He’s great behind the desk and decent in the limelight, a much better person for the job. And he far outranks the other side that thinks the limelight is the only part that counts.
wjca
@Anoniminous:
And that, of course, is the main reason for Democrats to be organizing and campaigning hard. All it takes is some (for the sake of argument, well-meaning) third party candidate to siphon off a microscopic percentage of the vote in a couple of places. Some of us are old enough to remember that happening in the past.
JWR
@Sister Golden Bear:
Did you hear that Orange County is holding hearings on implementing the Chino / Murrieta “parent’s rights” plans? Local (KCAL/CBS) news did a pretty good job pointing out that at least some of the people speaking in favor were following a national group, (MFL, no doubt), including one guy who’d spoken at both Chino and Murrieta school boards. They then aired interviews with two people who supported “parent’s rights”, and six or seven who opposed. Now that’s some “liberal bias” I can live with!
mrmoshpotato
@BeautifulPlumage:
How drunk is this bartender?
TS
@mrmoshpotato:
And I still don’t comprehend why they were allowed to go home & not arrested there and then. Talk about political interference – and here it was for all to see.
BeautifulPlumage
@mrmoshpotato: it appears to be her fully sober stance. She also started referencing what Putin said about biolabs in the US releasing COVID 🙄 and that of course it’s not the original Putin, he died a while ago. One of the fake Putin’s in now running Russia 🙄🙄🙄🙄
Jay
@JWR:
the fires were moving at 60mph.
Sadly, I have a lot of experience with wild fires.
Back in 87′, driving up the #1 on a fishing trip, I exited the tunnel into a firestorm. Luckily the tires did not blow, I made it into the next tunnel, and then, now knowing what was happening, made it through the next 5k of forest fire, sort of okay.
The truck had to be completely repainted, and all of the plastic trim and weather stripping replaced, including windows and some of the wiring.
There were no alerts back then, no cell service in the canyon, and what was a series of sparks off a train, within half an hour, blew up into a major forest fire straddling the (at the time), the only major highway in BC.
There was no smoke warning, nada. Cool river air entering the tunnel, hellscape on the other side.
BTW, that section, 50k speed limit, while the fire was moving at 100k.
Half of the people fleeing the Yellowknife fires, had to abandon their vehicles, as the fire was/is moving faster than you can drive. And those are flat straight roads where the first corner you hit is Calgary, 1500 km south.
It was the right call and with Apartheid Boy killing Twitter as an emergency response, well,………..
206inKY
I would have vigorously disagreed with this post three months ago. When Biden ended the student loan pause, I thought we were screwed—a generation of college grads would have had payments stop under Trump and restart under Biden. My wife has $300,000 in law school debt being paid under income sensitive payments on the PSLF program. Our payments before the pause were around $800.
The surprise awaiting debtors next month is that Biden’s new income sensitive payment plan is a dramatic improvement that will result in $0 payments for many and huge reductions for others (we will pay around $400). He raised the amount over the poverty line that is shielded, reduced the cut over the new threshold, and is now allowing married filing separately to exclude spousal income.
Few realize yet just how smart and radical the new plan is—until they get the first bill next month and are shocked by how unexpectedly low it will be.
It is basically a clandestine continuation of the pause that will be harder to dislodge by hostile administrations in the future. Brilliant policy.
Kayla Rudbek
@Ishiyama: I think that I should embroider that and put it up in my office!
like a metaphor
just wanted to see it again, but louder
Bruce K in ATH-GR
I thought the surrender date was Friday, August 25?
At any rate, the sooner those people get taken into custody, the better. And I’d be pleased to hear that they don’t qualify for bail.
mrmoshpotato
@TS:
I think the sheer amount of Trump trash trying to overthrow the United States government would’ve made that very difficult.
Also, how many of them were possibly armed? (Possibly all of them, Katie.)
And, hot! damn!, element of surprise in arresting your traitorous, insurrectionists dumb asses when there is security camera footage, and idiots are recording and livestreaming their crimes for YouTube, Twitter, Twitch, etc.
mrmoshpotato
@BeautifulPlumage: Holy mackerel! (the holiest of fish)
mrmoshpotato
@Jay:
Yup. 1000% this. On so, so many levels. The invaluable, boots-on-the-ground, hyperlocal information about disasters that used to be provided through Twitter until Melon Husk…
sab
@Nettoyeur: Some of the younger folks I know who were initially excited about him just thought he was so random member of the Kennedy family, not RFK Sr’s son inparticular. And Kennedys in general are viewed as okay in Democratic circles because most of them are okay and there are a lot of them and they do seem to name their kids after each other.
I knew who he was and thought urk! but I can see how a younger normie could be fooled briefly.
yellowdog
@SpaceUnit: Crows are the Minds controlling all the other avian fakers.
Princess
I’ll take G Elliott Morris’s numbers over Jay’s shift-feelings. She’s in the same hyper political bubble we’re all in and I don’t trust her vibes any more than I trust my own. What will the normies do, that’s my question. But there’s no question that a) on facts, Biden is the most effective and consequential Dem president of my lifetime and b) the GOP is flailing and leaderless right now.
brantl
@NotMax: Mike Lindell, predictably useless idiot.
brantl
@tokyokie: Next to no one will read the filings, so he can still claim it’s in there. (What am I thinking; if they published the filings on the front page of every major newspaper in the US of A, and it didn’t contain any of this information, Stumpy would still claim that it was in there, and it was irrefutable.)
brantl
@Jay: Put a fucking message out on radio, TV, loudspeakers, on the streets, “It’s a fire, head for the ocean!”. This is hard to do, but it isn’t that f*cking hard to do, goddamnit.
Gregory
I’ve said it before, but the main reason many Republicans are going all in on fascism and insurrection is not because they are strong, but because they are weak. They are not in the majority now and becoming less so all the time, and even with the extremely countermajoritarian structures put into the Constitution to appease the slave states, they know maintaining minority rule is a heavy lift.
There are more of us than there are of them, and we have a right to structure our society in a way that benefits everyone, not just the minority.
Miss Bianca
@Mai Naem mobileI: Wow, they know enough to know who RFK Sr is, but *not* enough to know how or when he died?
I…erm…I don’t know what to say to that.
@Righteous Hazard:
Wow, I am going to use that phrase. Succinct and to the point. Thanks!
jefft452
@RepubAnon:
“Fight like you’re 20 points down, and you’ll win by 30+ points.”
Because people love to vote for people who act like losers?
Sean Nuttall
Since 2020 16 million new 18-21 year old voters are now able to vote. They have to break at least 60-40 for Democrats. I’d argue 70-30. 10 million voters have passed away. They are at least 60-40 Republican.
This can only help.