Is it just me or does it feel a bit like liberals are getting their "I feel somewhat confident being a reasonable person in public" groove back?
— Magdi Jacobs (@magi_jay) January 12, 2024
A formative moment of my view of Biden was the 2023 debt ceiling standoff, where I was absolutely dead certain Biden was screwing up, the Dem caucuses were loudly complaining he was screwing up, and in reality it turned out he was negotiating an okay deal behind the scenes.
— Will Stancil (@whstancil) January 16, 2024
I still think his admin tends to struggle with POLITICS, per se, but part of why they struggle with politics is that they haven't been willing to sacrifice any policy leverage for the sake of performative positioning or placating critics.
— Will Stancil (@whstancil) January 16, 2024
Relational positioning, from Never-Trumper J.V. Last, at the Bulwark:
… [U]nlike every other contested primary in the modern era, Trump will arrive at the nomination in a pre-campaign state where he has yet to take a punch.
And the reality is this: Do you think Republican voters are likely to become more comfortable with Trump the more they see of him over the next 10 months? I do not. Historically, Trump’s approval numbers have moved inversely to the magnitude of his public presence.
I expect that once there is a real race, with Biden actually hitting Trump where he is softest, and Trump is in everyone’s face, we are likely to see some erosion of Republican support for Trump at the margins. Not a huge decline—but enough to measure. Enough to be dispositive.
Finally: Do you think Democratic voters are likely to become more disaffected with Biden over the next 10 months? I do not, for two reasons.
First, because the objective economic facts continue to improve and filter through the electorate. Second, because as we approach the election, not supporting Biden transforms from being a signal of dissatisfaction with his administration to an act of concrete support for Trump. On this score, I suspect we are near the high-water mark for Biden discontent among those Democratic groups and that they will gradually return to their party’s fold.
All of which is to say that it is hard to see why Trump could move any further ahead and not difficult to see why Biden’s standing could/should improve.
======
Relational organizing, per Victor Shi, “Youngest Biden Delegate 20”:
THREAD: Stop with the doom & gloom Tweets about young people not supporting Joe Biden in 2024. I’m going to take a moment & explain why I’m not falling for the doom & gloom, AND, instead, offer what we must do to turn out Gen Z for Joe Biden like never before in 2024 (we will).
— Victor Shi (@Victorshi2020) January 2, 2024
For instance, yesterday, the USA Today conducted a poll showing young people supporting Trump more than Biden. On the surface, that creates panic. But, dig into the poll, & you find that the only method they used was…phone calls. Ditto for many others. https://t.co/gcAcduREkk
— Victor Shi (@Victorshi2020) January 2, 2024
Compare that to other polls (YouGov/The Economist or the Harvard Youth Poll) that used a mix of methodologies (phone call, texts, online surveys) to reach young voters. What do you see in each of those polls? The VAST majority of young people supporting POTUS in 2024.
BUT, let’s put aside polls, because, frankly, it’s too far before the election, &, there are a lot more important issues to be focusing on than polls. The one thing I hear, above all else, when I talk to young people isn’t a disdain for POTUS. It’s unawareness of his policies.
Last week, I told @MuellerSheWrote a moment I encountered at school recently: A friend approached me & genuinely asked what this President has accomplished for young people. I responded & listed everything that POTUS has accomplished & at the end, she viewed POTUS favorably. WHY?
This shouldn’t shock many people, but it all boils down to where young people consume their info. We know that the political discourse in this app or that’s happening on MSNBC or CNN simply is not the same as the discourse happening where young people get info: social media.
They don’t hear, for example, President Biden’s actions around gun violence prevention, his historic investment in climate change, or just how much he’s been able to do with a bare majority in Congress. And that’s, arguably, the biggest challenge POTUS faces in 2024.
The record is there. Now, it’s about how we reach young voters not just effectively, but also in a way that will generate excitement for POTUS & his agenda. In other words, simply telling young people about the threat Trump poses won’t cut it. They must be excited about POTUS
I’ve written about this before & I’ll say it again. I believe it must be a two-pronged approach. First, flood the zone on social media. Doing one or two interviews with influencers a month won’t cut it. It must be constant & sustained. BUT, second:https://t.co/Ocy1NyAUJQ
— Victor Shi (@Victorshi2020) January 2, 2024
Meet young people where they are on college campuses. Whether it’s POTUS or VPOTUS, there is a value in showing up on a college campus & LISTENING to & engaging with young people. Let me share a story of a friend who attended VP’s college tour last year…
He wasn’t very enthusiastic about VP nor was he enthusiastic about POTUS. But after attending the event at Morehouse, he told me how amazing it felt to have a VP how showed up on a college campus & engaged with young people. That matters for a group that feels ignored in politics
What can we all do? 1.) Talk to young people in your lives & register them to vote. Ask them what they care about. Echo to them all that POTUS has done on the values they care about. And then help them through the process of registering to vote & then actually voting.
Another term for this is relational organizing. Data shows that, by far, the most effective way to persuade someone isn’t through a talking head on TV or through a politician. It’s through the people most immediate and closest in one’s life (friend, parents, teacher, etc).
Know that you are a trusted messenger for young people & that those conversations with young people matter more than you think. The second thing is to support young organizations out there doing work to turn out the vote. The biggest challenge that these orgs face is $$$$
Find a youth-focused org (not to be biased but something like @VotersTomorrow or @runforsomething or any of the many others) & chip in some money. Can be $1, $10, $100. Resources & money are scarce. & anything helps their efforts to engage a critical block of the 2024 cycle.
Bottom line: POTUS & VPOTUS are the most pro-youth admin of our lifetimes. I’m not saying there won’t be challenges (there will be), but we’ve done it before & we must do it again—& even more. Stay focused this year. Keep fighting. We can win & we will this thing. /END
Elizabelle
Good post. Thanks, Anne Laurie.
Baud
My ad blocker that used to block Twitter embeds has stopped working for some reason.
eclare
Thank you for the Victor Shi thread. I hope Biden/Harris finds a way to utilize Maxwell Frost in the election.
SpaceUnit
I like posts like this. Screw that doomer BS.
There’s not a single strategic advantage TFG has gained over his 2020 chances. Let’s bury these assholes for good.
Baud
I usually hate advice articles because they’re always written in a condescending “here’s what you’re doing wrong and why I’m smarter than Dems” tone.
This one seems actually focused and positive.
bbleh
I suspect we are near the high-water mark for Biden discontent…
This! Please, can we be done with breathless MSM stories / social media posts about “approval”?
At least there’s a lot less of “but he’s old” than there was even a month or two ago. Baby steps …
Ryan
“A formative moment of my view of Biden was the 2023 debt ceiling standoff, where I was absolutely dead certain Biden was screwing up, the Dem caucuses were loudly complaining he was screwing up, and in reality it turned out he was negotiating an okay deal behind the scenes.”
My position for years has been a) he’s surrounded himself with good people, except Merrick Garland, and 2) he gets medical care at Walter Reed, so he’ll live forever as long as he’s in government service.
bbleh
@Baud: Secret backroom deals? Nefarious Musk-ite sabotage? Jewish space lasers?
Almost Retired
Great post. I really think most persuadable people will come around in the end. It’s easy to gripe about Biden and Israel, and student loans and the messy border this far out from the election. But when October hits, and the alternative is Trump on Gaza, student loans and immigrant child cages, maybe the purity drunks will sober up.
UncleEbeneezer
So he admits to palling around with a GRIFTER!!1! Pass! Next he’ll be peddling hope…
Seriously though, I first discovered Victor about three years ago and he’s very impressive. He has all the understanding of issues that face and concern his generation, but he is also a realist who understands the complexity/difficulty of our politics and doesn’t get caught up in lazy Dem/Biden-bashing.
Alison Rose
Hell, I’m middle aged and I don’t answer any phone calls from numbers I don’t recognize. (I often don’t answer calls from numbers I do recognize.)
Brachiator
The Democrats have been doing what Victor Shi talks about for a while now. They just need to do more of it to target younger voters. Good points, but nothing new.
Scout211
This is a very uplifting post. Adding to the post is a move by the Biden team that we discussed a few days ago when it was first announced.
Joe Biden’s Campaign Taps “Problem With Jon Stewart” Research Producer For 2024 Role
Another Scott
Meanwhile, one for the non-retirees, ICYMI. ;-)
Doktor Zoom at Wonkette:
(Emphasis added.)
Yeah, Joe is Oooolllddddd.
“Old age and treachery will always beat youth and exuberance.” – David Mamet
Being old, he knows how this stuff works, and how to make progress in the face of setbacks. Don’t count him out.
Make sure the youngsters in your contacts know about this stuff.
Cheers,
Scott.
different-church-lady
Despite the narrative and that I read LGM far far far too much, I’m feeling strangely calm about it all.
Another Scott
Politics can change quite quickly.
(via Fritschner)
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@different-church-lady:
Me too. It’s because I’m old and don’t care about people who want to take us for granted.
TBone
I’m almost 60 and I answer my landline much more than my cell (after checking caller ID) specifically to participate in town hall type calls and polling (hubby is registered Rethug as cover for us here in rumplandia. He votes Dem all the way and we choose the biggest losers on his primary ballot). I make the pollsters laugh as much as possible while giving them the what for. I don’t believe I’ve ever received a call that was overtly from Dems so I do what I can to scuttle the rethug results. It makes me feel better and reinforces what I think of polling this far out. Old age and treachery and all that.
satby
@Brachiator: It’s probably new to even many of the pretty politically aware people here. The Biden admin has a very savvy social media group and Kamala Harris is treated as a rock star at college visits. But very little of that shows up on MSNBC or other media that the preponderance of readers here consume.
SiubhanDuinne
I know they’re not actually on our side, but damn! the Lincoln Project continues to make great never-Trump videos! (Joy Reid just ran this on her MSNBC show.)
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@Scout211: I recognize Jim Margolis. He was a social media communications guy for Obama, IIRC
Baud
@satby:
I stopped with cable news a long time ago.
lowtechcyclist
@Another Scott: If Grassley dies or resigns, the Iowa governor (who IIRC is a horrible Republican, but I repeat myself) gets to appoint a temporary replacement.
Best outcome would be Grassley being too sick to show up for votes, but not sick enough to get him to step down.
Darkrose
@Another Scott: Not just youngsters! I’ve got a big chunk of loans from grad school. For various tax-related reasons I need to wait until I get my taxes done this year, but the SAVE plan should make things much more manageable soon. *fingers crossed
satby
@Another Scott: Sounds like the GQP is down to a margin of 1 in the House if Grassley is out now too. IV antibiotics indicates a pretty serious infection that they’re concerned oral antibiotics wouldn’t control fast enough. Sounds not good.
Baud
@satby:
Grassley is Senate.
satby
@Baud: OOPS, right. My bad. Obviously I wish ill on Speaker Johnson’s grasp on his flying monkey caucus.
HumboldtBlue
National media is back out in the wild hunting down voters who are woefully ill-informed. The Cletus safari continues.
schrodingers_cat
@satby: I agree with your recent critiques of the blog. AL’s posts still remind me of the old Balloon Juice.
moops
Almost no young voter has understood that Trump was going to be the GOP nominee. In that information void they have happily told polling that they are unhappy with Biden. So much high disapprovals! Much sadness and whining! Dam you Joe Brandon!
Now that the GOP primary is underway they will start to hear that yes, it is Trump. Yes, THAT Trump. Rejecting Biden in November means electing Donald Trump to be President again.
Another Scott
@lowtechcyclist: Sure, but it takes time. (E.g. Ted Kennedy died in August 25, Vacant August 25-September 24, Paul Kirk appointed, Scott Brown was sworn in on February 4.) It would likely be shorter in Iowa (GQP governor) but it wouldn’t be instantaneous. Dunno if it would actually change getting things though the Senate, of course.
As you say, him being in the hospital for an extended period might be the best way to help get things moving a tiny bit faster in the Senate.
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@moops:
That’s consistent with a lot of reddit comments I’ve seen today after Iowa. Many seem genuinely shocked.
Tom Levenson
@TBone: I’m 65 and don’t have a landline (haven’t had one since 2009).
I basically don’t answer an unidentified caller on my mobile.
I guess I’m a yoot then.
[narrator: he is not a youth.]
Scout211
Yeah, I didn’t know he was still in the running either.
mrmoshpotato
Huh?
Dorothy A. Winsor
Open thread? OK. I just posted a review of Spare, by Prince Harry, part 13 of my project to read a book from each of the categories Goodreads uses in its best book of the year contest. This is the Memoir and Autobiography category. WaterGirl invited me to post about this project for several Medium Cool posts, so this will eventually show up here too. But if you want it now, here it is.
Baud
@HumboldtBlue:
You notice the media be never finds the white male farmer that supports Biden.
wjca
Arguably, he’s talking about a difference in volume sufficiently large that it constitutes a difference in kind. Which is to say: new.
schrodingers_cat
I have my serious doubts that the people complaining loudly of not voting for Ds because of Biden’s support for Israel or whatever is new excuse of the day are representative of all young Ds.
Captain C
@Another Scott:
IIRC this was on the alum team’s shirt at one of my college Ultimate team’s yearly alum tournament/party weekends.
Dan B
@Scout211: Didn’t Hutchinson get something like 140 votes? I wonder how many dollars per vote.
Kelly
In the last hour our temp here in Oregon’s western Cascade foothills has climbed from 24 to 28. Forecast calls for the end of freezing temps in the next few hours. Back to our regular rain and mud. I’m happy with rain and mud. It’s easy to live with. In the first 4 days of this cold spell our snowpack climbed from next to nothing to near median so this bitter weather wasn’t a total bummer.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: I live in town that has many working farms and it went for Biden by a huge margin in 2020. So they do exist.
japa21
This is what a lot of the doom and gloomers either don’t realize or refuse to acknowledge. Just how many new voters is Trump likely to get. Some, sure, but not many. A drop of 2-3% across the board not only means Biden keeps the states he won, but probably picks up a couple more (looking at you NC).
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
Good for them.
The media doesn’t care what they think though.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Truth. We also have diners here! And the WWC here votes D
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
It must be what heaven is like.
Ruckus
@Another Scott:
I am not up in Joe’s neighborhood age wise but I am in a neighborhood not far away. Like maybe one over. So age and I are pretty decent friends. Old age is two things, and to me seemingly the most important in my bracket is how you’ve lived the much larger neighborhood before this one. Exercise is bloody important. Not that you do too much but that you do some often enough. It doesn’t have to be a marathon, just enough to keep things working. I walk 2-3 miles most days and it makes a huge difference. Laying around watching the tube doesn’t cut it.
HumboldtBlue
The DNC isn’t playing nice and people are very mad!
To the fainting couches!
japa21
Some good news, if not marking a radical switch. A Florida House seat had a special election today and it flipped from GOP to Dem.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Close. It was the playground of both Frost and Dickinson. Also was an abolitionist stronghold and very active during the Revolutionary war.
Baud
@HumboldtBlue:
That’s funny and it does seem a little bit gratuitous. Maybe they’re signaling what to expect in the general election.
satby
@schrodingers_cat: Thanks, it was specifically in answer to Humboltblue’s suggestion in Betty’s thread that Sundays should be reserved for “lighter” posts. I was gratified that others agreed we already have quite a lot of lighter posts and don’t need to dedicate a day to them. I don’t think suggesting alternative topics in someone’s new thread is constructive (actually, it’s insulting), and front pagers should write what they want. But I miss the more spontaneous Balloon Juice, which I preferred over all the scheduled posts we get now. Which seem to inhibit more freestyle posts.
japa21
@HumboldtBlue: Actually I agree with those who didn’t like it. And one was the same Victor Shi in the post. Considering that Hutchinson was anti-Trump a statement about this showing how much Trump controls the party would have been more appropriate.
Baud
@japa21:
👍
I assume the GOP hasn’t lost its supermajority.
schrodingers_cat
@satby: Overall the blog has become a genteel club. And those culture specific posts can be insular representing a very specific culture and assuming that to be the default for everyone.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
You wouldn’t like me if I’m angry.
satby
@japa21: And J V Last is a never Trumper, though his political evolution seems to be shadowing Jennifer Rubin’s.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: I have never seen you angry in all my years commenting on this blog.
Dan B
@Kelly: Seattle has been above freezing since about 10 AM. I believe we may hit 32° tonight but then the freezing is done. Portland may get ice tonight. Nasty.
TBone
Florida Democrats kicked off the new year with a major victory as businessman and Navy veteran Tom Keen flipped a Republican-held seat in the state House―a development that represents Gov. Ron DeSantis’ second electoral humiliation in the span of 24 hours.
schrodingers_cat
@TBone: Good!
satby
Mainline that right into Betty Cracker’s veins 😂
eversor
We should NOT win EVER. Any liberal win is anti Christian bigotry. There are two god created genders, and women must submit. Anything beyond that is not only anti Christian it’s against Christ. So no. Only entire female subjugation, two genders by law, allows Christianity. So get that or get rid of Christianity. Trump FOREVER, Christianity FOREVER, women must submit or we are anti Christian.
schrodingers_cat
I mean even before cell phones didn’t people have caller ID? Its been a while since I have answered a number I didn’t recognize.
Another Scott
@japa21: HarrisonJaime (the DNC chair) had this up on his Twitter thing yesterday:
Good, good.
Cheers,
Scott.
HumboldtBlue
Mike Johnson showing us all how to handle the ever-crazier GOP caucus as Hunter Biden runs rings around them.
House Republicans are backing off of a contempt charge for Hunter Biden, according to POLITICO.
Jackie
@bbleh: The same people saying Biden’s too old got a GOOD LOOK at TIFG looking REALLY OLD and FRAIL this past wknd.
Shut them right up!
wjca
@japa21:
Just read down to the calendar at the bottom. Wow!
I knew Iowa had caucuses, but I somehow had the impression they were nearly unique. However apparently there are a lot of states where Republicans are going the caucus route this spring.
schrodingers_cat
@Jackie: According to some people on this blog Biden looks old while the Orange Man doesn’t. Yeah, no idea what they are thinking.
TBone
@Tom Levenson: I was glad I had the landline when I punched a cop right before George Floyd BLM protesting started. Easier and cheaper to phone home for bail money😂
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@japa21:
Great news!
@Baud:
Unfortunately, no, but this can’t be welcome news for Florida Republicans. It was a competitive district they had won with 55% of the vote in 2022, itself not a great year for Republicans
Roger Macguffin
@Anne Laurie
You’re not going to win, so start stocking up on anti-depressants to cope with Trump’s 2024 election victory.
As a proud member of the LGBTQ and MAGA communities and a HUGE Donald Trump supporter, I’m ecstatic and euphoric over his humongous Iowa victory!!
Trump is the indispensable leader that America desperately needs to repair all the damage done by mumbling, confused Joe Biden.
The working man, the working woman, and the slum child know they can expect Trump’s best efforts in their interests! The decent, ordinary citizens know that Trump will do everything in his power to protect the underprivileged, the underpaid, and the underfed!
Along with non-stop lying about Trump, you Balloon Juicers have spent years viciously defaming and slandering the wonderful MAGA community. To set the record straight, MAGA Americans are among the most loyal, most law-abiding, patriotic, hard-working citizens in this land! MAGA Americans have been pioneers in building and defending our great nation! They are the salt of the earth and they’re one of the backbones of this country!
Beyond Trump’s pitch-perfect policy prescriptions, you Balloon Juicers are incapable of comprehending the personal qualities that make Trump irresistibly appealing to millions of Americans. His charisma, swagger, and remarkable hunkitude are unprecedented. He’s 215 pounds of Grade A, Prime Cut American Beefcake and has the biggest pair of cojones of any politician in the annals of American history.
Trump is a hunk of burning love for humanity and with Kristi Noem (the Smartest and Sexiest female politician in America! FYI South Dakota Snow Queen 1990) as his running mate, they’ll annihilate and obliterate clueless, crooked Joe “Fentanyl Burisma” Biden and Kamala “Deer in the Headlights” Harris on Election Day.
TRUMP NOEM 2024 BEEFCAKE AND CHEESECAKE!!!
satby
@Dan B: it’s still 3° here, but tomorrow will rocket all the way up to 18° by 4 pm. I have to unfreeze the windshield cover, get to the store, and cover the car back up because another 4-8 inches of snow is expected tomorrow night to Thursday night. Since it’s been so cold, none of the previous 6+ inches has melted, just compacted a bit, and the streets aren’t really clear so it will get deep.
smith
@HumboldtBlue: The downside is that Hunter has apparently agreed to appear in a closed hearing. Let’s hope all the recent hullabaloo leads to early and wide dissemination of what’s actually said in the hearing rather than the GQP fantasy version.
Jackie
@lowtechcyclist:
When Grassley ran his last election, lots of sources made mention he’s grooming his grandson to succeed him – appointed by that rethuglican gov.
HumboldtBlue
Joe Biden gives no fucks.
Iowa’s over, and there’s still only one person who’s ever defeated Donald Trump.
Baud
@HumboldtBlue:
👍
wjca
@schrodingers_cat:
Next time someone mutters about Biden being old, point them at this:
At 93, he’s as fit as a 40-year-old. His body offers lessons on aging.
It’s WaPo, so it’s probably paywalled. Sorry. But the headline pretty much makes the point: age, as a number of years, doesn’t necessarily tell you anything useful.
frosty
@schrodingers_cat: If you think we’re a genteel club, go down one post and read about Nikki Haley’s name. Ugh. I goofed and forgot my plan to skip comments on posts with over 200 comments. It generally means there’s a fight going on.
Dan B
@satby: Crazy cold for your cat food run. Seattle’s cold temperature of 15° was the coldest since the nineties. A day’s drive east it hit -54°.
Baud
@smith:
Maybe they cut a deal about that.
TBone
@HumboldtBlue: I adore dark Brandon. I hope whoever drives Rump to prison is named Brandon.
Jackie
@Another Scott: This is who’s likely to be Grassley’s replacement:
https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2020/02/20/chuck-grassley-says-grandsons-never-expressed-interest-in-u-s-senate-bid/
The “never expressed interest” platitude is bull pucky. Young Grassley is very ambitious and is a MAGAt to boot.
frosty
@wjca: I think this is a gift link to the 93-year old’s story.
https://wapo.st/47KAZyU
Another Scott
Remember when Old Handsome Joe said that he was working to build the economy from the bottom up and the middle-class out? And how lots of new jobs weren’t going to require a college degree?
GovExec.com:
Old Handsome Joe knows what he’s talking about and knows how to get things done.
Make sure the youngsters in your contacts know about this, also too.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jackie
@Baud: Ummm…White American farmer Senator Tester loudly objects!
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@wjca:
You’re not kidding. Missouri just moved to caucuses from primaries this year and Idaho had a presidential primary in 2020. The only explanation is this gives them more control over the process
Jay
@Dan B:
North of you, we are bracing for “Snowmageddon II”
Jackie
@japa21: Tom Keen (D)!!! Good for him and great for Florida!
schrodingers_cat
@frosty: Talking about the FP posts not the comments. Comments are still populated by unruly children, jackals and hyenas.
sxjames
@Dan B: Yes, we started getting freezing rain around 3:30 (pacific time). Got a beef stew on the stove, going to hunker down tonight. Supposed to melt by Wednesday afternoon. We shall see…
Manyakitty
@japa21: excellent
Jackie
@Dan B: The other side of the mountains are bracing for snow/freezing rain/snow starting tonight through Sat. We won’t see temps above freezing until this wknd.
Geminid
@wjca: Former Northern Virginia Rep. Tom Davis summed up the Caucus vs. Primary dynamic: “Activists have passions, moderates have lives.”
Virginia Republicans have favored the caucus/convention route in local and stzte contest for this reason. They say it’s because Virginia has no party registration, and Democrats and Independents distort primary results. That’s bullshit of course; the real reason is that the bible thumpers and tea-party cranks know they can dominate caucuses.
I think the state may have changed the law though, because the odious Bob No-Good (VA-5) has a challenger and they’ll fight it out in a primary. That would not be Good’s preference. In 2020, Good’s allies ensured his win over incumbent Denver Riggleman by engineering a caucus process with a district convention at Liberty University, Good’s former employer.
The funny thing is that Good, the Freedom Caucus’s new Chairman, is being primaried from the Right; State Senator John McGuire claims Good is a RINO. McGuire’s biggest beef is that Good endorsed Ron DeSantis, so he’s a traitor to the “MAGA Movement.”
Jackie
@HumboldtBlue: 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
Jackie
@wjca:
Here’s a gift link to the article: https://wapo.st/47KAZyU
Starfish
@schrodingers_cat: My mom voted for Biden last time and is not voting for Biden because of his support for Israel, but she is different than the very shouty online behavior. I am very skeptical of the online behavior this year.
Brachiator
@TBone:
I have a landline that I keep for emergencies. I don’t do polls and heavily screen what comes in to my smartphone.
I recognize the challenges that polling organizations have these days, trying to adjust for the rapid decline of landlines. But it’s not my problem.
zhena gogolia
@Starfish: She’ll love Mr. “move the US embassy to Jerusalem.”
wjca
I’m not sure it’s control exactly, so much as differentially favoring fanatics and those without lives (especially, those without children). Which is one way to narrow your voter pool, and reduce the chances that someone electable might slip thru.
Probably not necessary in, for example, Idaho these days. But never hurts to be prepared.
EDT I see Geminid got there first.
Jackie
Is this guy re-running for his seat?
H.E.Wolf
That’s great! Thanks for highlighting it.
PostcardsToVoters.org wrote for that election – they have a strong interest in FL. The founder is a Democrat from GA (PTV got its start by writing for Jon Ossoff) and knows that turnout is key to flipping seats blue.
Redshift
@Geminid:
No, the law hasn’t changed, and based on a WaPo article from November, I’m guessing the local GOP doesn’t care for the challenger, so they probably think a primary is less risky for Good.
Starfish
@eversor: This is not the RedPill forum you are looking for you beta cuck.
Odie Hugh Manatee
@Another Scott:
I hope he doesn’t return any time soon, he’s done enough damage. Iowa can find a new asshole to replace this old, worn out one.
Starfish
@zhena gogolia: The behavior of my mom and her friend is extremely weird. The only comfort that I take in it is that they both live in deep red (or gerrymandered red) states and are not affecting any outcomes.
They are Muslims who are either supporting Mr. Day 1 Was the Muslim Travel Ban or not voting for Joe Biden because Biden is giving money to Israel. I just cannot relate.
Jeffro
We are almost at the point that the Biden/Harris campaign saw coming oh, six months ago? Eight months ago? That it was always going to be Biden vs. trumpov in November.
Soon, it will be clear that the campaign’s strategy of making it a binary choice – primarily, by putting trumpov’s insanity on full blast 24/7 – is going to win big, not just for Biden/Harris but for Dems in general.
Competence, or chaos?
The Constitution, or dictatorship?
Relatable Joe, or the rapist who also just got convicted on 89 of his 91 felony charges?
satby
No Threadreader on BlueSky, so I DIYed it for this one:
Joad The Wet Sprocket @joadsprocket.bsky.social
We know what the tattered-flag shirt means. We know what the Black Rifle Coffee bumper sticker means. We know what the “let’s go brandon” sign outside a business means. We the Normal do not need to be clued in. We don’t need to go to a rally to know that they’re all either exhausted or flailing.
I am so tired of coming home from a long day of exposure to these people, against my will, only to be told by some emailing-his-editor prick that I’ve got blinders on. I actually don’t need to go to a Trump rally. I know they’re exhausted from losing. We all know.
When I step over a trailer hitch hanging off a dualie F-250 with an empty bed that’s blocking the sidewalk, I’m experiencing Trump Adults. When some guy can’t go to Target without open-carrying and everyone just silently cringes because they don’t want him to tantrum, I’m experiencing Trump Adults.
I’m glad they’re getting dispirited, I’m glad his most fervent support base is shrinking, and I guess I’m glad it’s finally happened loudly enough for the fake centrist pundits to start noticing, but I’m so frustrated that every new development, no matter what, means another lecture for we Normals.
Because that’s what we are, we’re the normal ones. They’re the freaks. The chuds haven’t won the popular vote in 20 years. Trump snuck in on novelty, procedural quirks, and a terribly managed opposing campaign, and it’s been eight years of disgust on the part of a majority of Americans since.
The story with these guys is that they’ve taken over one of the two parties and are actively tanking it. Biden held the Senate and the GOP barely won the House. Glenn Youngkin is scandal-free, nominally non-MAGA, and hasn’t visibly screwed up much of anything, and he got fully rebuked in his midterm
There is none – ZERO – impetus for reflection on the part of normal people. No need for caution. Normal people are stabbing this thing to death with every election, and it’s working
Brachiator
@satby:
Yep. I agree. But I also think that a large segment of younger people enjoy entertainment news, but avoid regular news and political news. Their political views are mainly a kind of political conventional wisdom. I don’t know how to best reach this group.
Odie Hugh Manatee
@Kelly:
I don’t know where you are on the coast side but here in Brookings we were mid 60’s on Monday so I mowed the yard as it needed it. This was after getting over seven inches of rain in 48 hours a couple of days before. Today was drizzle and upper 40’s, tomorrow is supposed to be same temps but 1-2 inches of rain.
We lost our internet (Spectrum Business but at home) last night around 9PM and got it back around 10AM this morn. Lights have been flickering, tripping out battery backups but no outages as of yet.
I hope everyone is holding up out there and safe, dry and warm!
satby
@Brachiator: That’s where Biden’s supersecrit Swiftie weapon comes in.
Only partly kidding.
TBone
@Brachiator: yep, I like yer style regarding problems. I even saved an old, corded phone that plugs directly into the wall Jack. Never fails in a power outage, never needs charging.
TBone
@satby: on that note
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=k03dsRUVbcQ
bbleh
@satby: No! It’s too soon! We’re not supposed to talk about the Secret Weapon to Inspire Feminists and Twentysomethings!
Bupalos
Speaking to my old self before I started interacting with trumpers:
“Quit being either confrontational or a pussy about talking politics with poorly educated sadsacks. ‘I don’t see it that way, I see it like this, for this reason… and it’s hard for me to believe you actually believe what you are saying…’ Zero effort, makes you feel better, tells them there is a limit to how much you despise them…works.
bbleh
@TBone: ah, but do you have an adapter with the phone jack on one side and the four prongs on the other?
I am finally shutting off my parents’ landline service. My only regret is that I can’t assign the number to some scam-tracking agency. It’s a mother-lode.
Quadrillipede
@schrodingers_cat: “Orange Man” looks to be in pretty good shape for a 104-year-old IMO…
Bupalos
I could pull this phrase verbatim off any rightwing blog or media in any era. When you’re using it, you’re part of the problem. It’s an iron-clad law
It’s only possible for the left to be this ignorant via segregation.
Lyrebird
@japa21: totally rad! and awesome!
Eduardo
@Bupalos: I think I understood that you are saying your piece in a non-confrontational, matter of fact way.
This is something that I always think because some of the folks –the fucks?– I interact with are actually smart, highly educated, relatively successful people.
And I have the suspicion that they actually struggle to believe these things, too.
I’ll see if I can try that approach, if nothing else to make me feel better about myself.
Brachiator
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Enjoyed your review of the Prince Harry memoir. I didn’t know about the largely credible background of the ghostwriter.
The UK press is far worse than here. Some papers paid fines for phone hacking in the past, apologized and then started doing it again later.
Prince Harry recently won a partial victory against the press, but an upcoming book about the Queen goes out of its way to present Harry as a villain.
TBone
@bbleh: no but I remember those. My landline makes a funny blip sound immediately if I accidentally pick up a spam scam call. When I was little, we had a party line with 4 other neighbors.
Starfish
@Brachiator:
There was a funny interview in The New Yorker with the ghostwriter about when Harry was digging his heels in on wanting something silly in the book.
NotMax
@satby
“Why ya think they calls it Target, superlib?”
//
Jeffro
Bob No-Good being primaried from the right is just, wow.
The leopards have clearly moved on from just eating faces to devouring the whole thing.
I have to wonder if a Dem candidate in VA-05 might do well with 1) “yikes, just LOOK at these people?” and (if Good manages to hang in there) 2) “shouldn’t your Representative actually DO something for you?
wjca
Gotta say, the folks I’ve seen who were 100+ generally look to be in rather better shape. Sharper mentally, too.
Geminid
@Redshift: I was just guessing about the reason 5th CD Republicans will have a primary this year, but I think I guessed right. According to Cardinal News reporter Markus Schmidt:
“Newly elected state Senator John McGuire announces challenge to Rep. Good in 2024,” Cardinal News December 15, 2023.
Cardinal News is based in Roanoke and reports on Southside and Southwestern Virginia. It looks like they are covering this race fairly closely, with at least three articles already.
satby
@Bupalos: You think? I think people who don’t need to carry weapons to shop or go from pleasant to Q-Anon cray-cray in a conversation with a stranger in line aren’t normal, and the point of that thread is most of us aren’t segregated from them. Most of us have to deal with them and try to maintain civility while many of them display none every day. We understand them just fine.
NotMax
@satby
Appreciate the corrective edit. Admit to the original being a head scratcher.
;)
randy khan
@HumboldtBlue:
Trying to get Hunter prosecuted for contempt when he agreed to show up to testify in person just wasn’t going to fly in the long run anyway. Leaving aside that this Justice Department wouldn’t prosecute him, if it got to a jury they’d laugh it out of court.
Another Scott
@eversor: I’ve been curious about your ‘nym for a while. Is it related to this Warhammer stuff?
I guess people like all kinds of games…
Cheers,
Scott.
Citizen Alan
@schrodingers_cat: Some people mistake volume for energy and/or alertness. Biden takes time to make sure he says what he means, while Shitgibbon brays out whatever thought pops into his demented head. He’s Grandpa Simpson if Grandpa Simpson were irredeemably evil.
eclare
@HumboldtBlue:
That was an awful interview with no follow up questions about exactly what Joe Biden should be doing wrt Israel. Her suggestion was just a vague “negotiate.”
Negotiate what?
eclare
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
The issue that I have with Spare, based on excerpts that I have read, is that while he constantly rails about the press hounding him, he released very personal details about his family. He released text messages between his wife and Kate, I doubt Kate gave her permission. He also revealed that William is circumcised. Again I doubt that William gave his permission to divulge this.
eclare
@Baud:
I think it’s gratuitous. Asa was very anti-TFG because of the legal issues and preserving democracy. We might be able to peel a few of them off, like Liz Cheney, if we don’t insult them.
Paul in KY
@eversor: You’re not even trying now….
Paul in KY
@Eduardo: I laugh at them.
Paul in KY
@TBone: That’s the autodialer software connecting you to the scammer, who’s just ending the previous call he/she made.
Paul in KY
@eclare: I certainly assumed William is circumcised. Assume same for Harry too, and his dad.