Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

Don’t expect peaches from an apple tree.

The lights are all blinking red.

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

Usually wrong but never in doubt

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

Speaker Mike Johnson is a vile traitor to the House and the Constitution.

The republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

The revolution will be supervised.

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

Nothing worth doing is easy.

This fight is for everything.

A lot of Dems talk about what the media tells them to talk about. Not helpful.

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

They’re not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

This blog will pay for itself.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

Today’s gop: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

Let the trolls come, and then ignore them. that’s the worst thing you can do to a troll.

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 800: Another Day Ending in Day, Another Russian Bombardment

War for Ukraine Day 800: Another Day Ending in Day, Another Russian Bombardment

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A brief Rosie update: She is continuing to have a good appetite back and is eating and more active. So the week off and what we’re doing in terms of stabilizing her is working.

Here’s the damage to the Novaposhta facility in Odesa:

Here’s the machine translation of Novaposhta’s tweet:

This is how we have this morning in Odessa.

The depot and the branch together had 904 shipments worth almost UAH 3 million. In order to compensate for the cost of your parcels and cargo, we call you from the very morning.

The rashist rocket destroyed not only our depot and branch, but also 15.5 tons of your orders from online stores with clothes, appliances, children’s toys, goodies for 🐾 , medicines, parcels with care for relatives, etc. 😔

And according to the enemy’s version, weapons were stored here. No words, alone 🤬

I guarantee you this wasn’t an accident. Novaposhta had recently been in the news for opening new locations in different EU member states.

  • AIN reminds that Nova Poshta opened 89 offices in Estonia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, the Czech Republic, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Italy, Hungary, and Moldova.

Today’s bombardment:

From The Kyiv Independent:

Russian forces attacked nine border areas and settlements of Sumy Oblast on May 2, firing 40 times and causing at least 215 explosions, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported.

The communities of Mykolaivka, Khotin, Miropillia, Bilopillia, Krasnopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Esman, Seredyna-Buda, and Novo Sloboda were targeted.

No casualties or damage to civilian infrastructure were reported.

The Russian military struck the communities using artillery fire, AGS attacks, FPV drones, and mortar shelling, while also dropping mines.

The town of Miropillia experienced the most attacks, with 54 explosions recorded in the area. Miropillia, located about five kilometers from the Ukraine-Russian border, frequently comes under attack.

Residents in Sumy Oblast have been experiencing daily threats of shelling, but attacks have intensified in recent weeks, prompting large-scale evacuations from the region.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

I’ve Instructed to Work with Partners at All Levels to Speed Up the Supply of Arms, Implementing Packages and Agreements – Address by the President

2 May 2024 – 20:30

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Here’s a summary for the day.

The Staff. A few main issues. Of course, the situation at the front. There was a report from the Commander-in-Chief. Maximum attention was paid to the Pokrovsk direction. And other directions in the Donetsk region. Southern directions. Kharkiv region. The Commander-in-Chief also made a general report today on the protection of the border with Russia and our respective communities in several regions. The risks are clear. We will destroy the occupier under any circumstances.

The construction of fortifications was discussed separately and in great detail at the Staff meeting. There were reports from the government – Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, from the Office – within the purview of the regional direction of Oleksiy Kuleba, and from Oleksandr Yakovets, the Head of the State Special Transport Service. I am grateful to each and every person who is building fortifications on the ground and working as efficiently as necessary. We are keeping to the schedule.

Today we also discussed the protection of our energy sector – the protection of specific facilities from specific threats. Now we need to combine two processes: protecting the energy sector from current attacks and providing our people with electricity, and it is also time to start preparing for the next heating season. The task is obvious: we have to do the maximum to protect lives, and every aspect of this job – from air defense and electronic warfare at the facilities to the necessary construction and supplies – is the personal responsibility of everyone involved. From the government and the Air Force to energy companies and local services. I am grateful to everyone who takes their job with true diligence.

Also, following the conversation at the Staff meeting, I instructed the Prime Minister, the Minister of Defense, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Commander-in-Chief, each at their level, to work with partners to speed up the supply of weapons, implementing packages and agreements. Speed is important. The content of the packages is there, I see no problems with it today. I am grateful to the U.S. Congress for the decision, but the speed of delivery and implementation of decisions is something that should not be a problem either. We are waiting for the weapons to arrive in Ukraine for our warriors.

Today we also continue our preparations. We have held meetings on the results we expect from the coming months and the year as a whole.

NATO: prospects for the year and specifically, our fair expectations from the Summit in Washington. The European Union: preparations for the actual opening of accession negotiations, which we expect in June, and further work with the EU. And, of course, the Peace Summit, a global summit. There is already a specific distribution of government officials and other representatives of our country who will work in those geographical areas where we still need to engage leaders. These days, together with Switzerland, we have completed sending out invitations for the Summit. The specific dates of the Summit are June 15th and 16th. This will be the first phase – essentially the first real opportunity to begin the restoration of a just peace. All of us should understand that it is only global power that can force Russia into peace, and that is why we are working to involve as many participants as possible in the Summit in Switzerland and the corresponding communication. We must also be aware that Putin will try to disrupt this work, our efforts, and weaken Ukraine’s positions through various manipulations and attacks by his terrorists. All our positions – on the battlefield, in diplomacy and the information sphere – must be equally solid. For us to be able to exert pressure and achieve our goals, the occupiers must lose their ability to put pressure and gain anything for themselves. Hence, our strength, our capabilities, our weapons, our unity with partners must all work as one. And they will.

I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine! I thank everyone who fights and works for our country and people! I thank everyone who restores normal life after the Russian strikes and who brings us closer to holding Russia truly accountable for this war – a war in which we will definitely defend our independence.

Glory to Ukraine!

So much for all the assurances that the initial $1 billion worth of material was staged in the EUCOM AOR and would reach Ukraine within a week.

Now that the $61 billion Ukraine aid has passed, Biden aides tell Politico his administration will make the US’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion less of a public focus. 🤨

Mind you, Russian troops are on the offensive, taking territory every day and threatening strategic cities in the Donbas — not least because Washington dragged its feet on providing promised assistance.

The cost:

 

Estonia:

The Estonian Foreign Minister:

Daniel Szeligowski, the head of the Eastern European Programme and the Senior Fellow on Ukraine at the Polish Institute of International Affairs has posted a long thread calling out the Foreign Affairs piece that blamed Ukraine for the failure of the Spring 2022 peace process. From the Thread Reader App:

🧵THE DEAL THAT NEVER WAS

How Russia sought to subjugate Ukraine, the West rightly refused to play the ball, and Putin became personally responsible for the failure of the Ukrainian-Russian talksImage

Recent days have seen a renewed debate over the Ukrainian-Russian peace talks of spring of 2022. The popular wisdom says that both sides were close to an agreement, but this is simply false. Let’s finally unpack it, dyspel the myths and put a stop to the manipulation that abound 
FIRST, there was never any single deal that could have ended the war. What is simplistically presented as a deal was meant to combine at least three components – multilateral treaty on the status of Ukraine, bilateral Ukraine-Russia agreement, underpinned by Western guarantees 
The Ukrainian-Russian talks were barely one piece of a larger puzzle, and only the whole package agreed upon could have brought this war to an end. Since the talks already stalled over the first piece of the puzzle, a diplomatic end to the war was never really within reach 
SECOND, there was not even consensus between Ukraine and Russia as to what was really discussed. Ukraine insisted that the talks concerned the future status of Ukraine only, Russia – that a comprehensive agreement is negotiated, including the settlement of bilateral issues 
This is an extremely important detail, which is usually overlooked. All along, Ukraine underlined that bilateral issues are to be excluded from the multilateral treaty on the status of Ukraine, and are supposed to be the subject of separate talks between Zelensky and Putin 
And since there was no agreement between Ukraine and Russia on what was really to be discussed between the respective delegations, there was no further agreement on what would be potentially discussed between Zelensky and Putin either 
Zelensky expected his potential meeting with Putin to be serious negotiations on key bilateral points (Russian troops withdrawal, territorial issues). While Putin kept insisting that he would agree for any meeting only for Zelensky to sign “a peace agreement” 
For this reason, there was absolutely no agreement between Ukraine and Russia on either the mechanism for the withdrawal of the Russian troops, the territorial questions, the sequence of implementation of the arrangements, or even in what format these arrangements should be made 
Ukraine consistently maintained that territorial issues were to be agreed upon before a multilateral treaty on Ukraine’s status would enter into force. Russia maintained that the Russian troops would remain on the Ukrainian territory until Ukraine fully implemented the treaty 
THIRD, even in terms of Ukraine’s future status the two sides did not reach understanding on most aspects. Not even details of Ukraine’s neutrality were completely agreed upon, let alone the status and the size of the Ukrainian army 
It is not also true that Russia agreed to Ukraine’s accession to the EU. It expressed its consent in principle, but subject to conditions that Ukraine rejected, pointing out that other neutral countries that are members of the EU did not have to meet them to be considered neutral 
In fact, the only issue on which Ukraine indeed reached a provisional agreement with Russia was that Ukraine would agree to its neutral status, but in exchange for international security guarantees from the Western countries. Which now brings me to the puzzle no.3 
For a multilateral treaty on the status of Ukraine to enter into force whatsoever, Ukraine had to obtain security guarantees from its biggest Western partners. Yet this was impossible from the outset for at least three reasons 
1/ Ukraine negotiated bilaterally with Russia and the Western partners were neither included, nor even in the loop. The big puzzle required therefore a separate talks between Ukraine and these partners that were expected to become security guarantors 
2/ On the Russian initiative, the draft treaty was to impose numerous obligations on the Western guarantors – not entering any military agreements with Ukraine, informing about military exercises and provisions of their military doctrines, cancelling sanctions on Russia 
3/ Russia demanded a far-reaching disarmament of Ukraine and de facto veto right on whether the Western guarantors would even come to Ukraine’s rescue in the case of an attack (“on the basis of the decisions agreed by all Guarantor States”, one of which was to be Russia itself) 
The treaty itself would provide for an immediate suspension of any Western military and military-technical asisstance to Ukraine, although the Russian troops would still remain on the Ukrainian territory, and Russia would have the right to control the Ukrainian inventories 
From the Russian perspective, the treaty was simply intended to incapacitate Ukraine, to which the Western states would never agree. They would become obliged to defend a defenceless and disarmed Ukrainian state, and would even need a Russian consent to do so! 
Moreover, the Treaty assumed that any reservations to its content were not possible. The Western countries were therefore expected to unconditionally accept the Russian terms. Simply speaking, the Russian side put forward a proposal that they knew the West would have to reject 
Suggesting now that Boris Johnson somehow torpedoed the talks is a brazen manipulation to cover up the fact that it was actually Putin who broke off the talks (which were going nowhere anyway). How come? 
As I have already mentioned, Ukraine did not agree with Russia on any of the three pieces of the puzzle, but was still willing to make concessions. The Russian delegation understood fortune was slowly turning in Ukraine’s favour, but Putin apparently did not share this view 

So here comes an interesting part! Putin himself was presented a (still inconclusive) draft treaty on 15 April 2022. Quoting the Russian sources, Reuters argues, however, that Putin rejected the agreement and pressed ahead with military campaign

It became clear that the Russian delegation had no real mandate for talks with the Ukrainians, and that Putin himself was not willing to make any significant concessions, precisely what the Polish side kept saying since the talks started in Feb 2022. Russia was bluffing all along 
What we are seeing today is a coordinated effort to blame Ukraine for the failure of the 2022 talks. This is ignorance at best, at worst – a deliberate action to influence the Western public opinion to undermine support for further assistance to Ukraine [END] 

Tymofiy Mylovanov, the head of the Kyiv School of Economics, has posted a detailed assessment of Ukraine’s strikes on Russian targets in Russia. From the Thread Reader App:

It is ridiculous how Ukraine ignores high-priority targets and attacks low priority targets in Russia, says an observer criticizing Ukrainian attack on Russian oil refinery in Ryazan

Let’s take this argument seriously and think about what Ru targets should Ukraine hit first 1/Image

But first let’s look at what Ukraine is hitting now.

The recent deep strikes have focused on oil refineries. They have not focused on crude oil production, electricity grid, command centers, or weapon storage facilities. 2/Image

There are of course strikes on command centers and weapons storage facilities closer to the front lines. One recent example is an ATACAMS attack on Russian training center in Luhansk region 3/

I have also heard rumors that the U.S. doesn’t allow Ukraine to use ATACAMS and other long range weapons on the territory of Russia, even if this is 40 km from Kharkiv where Russians currently accumulate forces for an offensive 4/ 

So, Ukraine can be limited in its ability to strike on Russian territory.

Nonetheless, Ukraine continuously hits targets deep in Russia with Ukrainian produced drones. 5/

Unroll available on Thread Reader
It is not true that Ukraine focuses only on oil refineries, but they constitute the majority of targets that are publicly known. 6/ 

There is of course a chance that Ukraine attacks defense production and weapons storage targets, but this information doesn’t get public.

Yes, in today’s world with cameras and phones everywhere, this is possibly but highly unlikely. 7/ 

The Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries have been successful and media and politicians noticed them.

Drone attacks have knocked out around 14% of Russia’s primary oil refining capacity as of end-March.

8/

Russia is usually a net fuel exporter but the refinery disruptions have forced it to import.

It has imposed a 6-month gasoline export ban starting March 1 to prevent acute fuel shortages domestically 9/Image

Russia has also asked Kazakhstan to set up an emergency reserve of 100,000 metric tons of gasoline in case of shortages. 10/Image

It has also increased gasoline imports from Belarus. The cause is “unscheduled repairs” at Russian refineries following drone attacks. In the first half of March, imports reached nearly 3,000 metric tons, up from 590 tons in February and none in January /

Politico writes it is “both a political and military problem for Moscow. As well as being essential for Russia’s war effort, cheap fuel is a key part of President Vladimir Putin’s offer to the public, an antidote to lagging wages and a weak ruble” 12/

Politico: Diesel prices for Russian consumers have skyrocketed, rising almost 10 percent in the past week alone, according to the government’s figures. Petrol costs have also hit a six-month high, up more than 20 percent from the start of the year 13/ 
Politico: “Ukraine’s ‘physical sanctions’ can accelerate the actual ones,” Maria Shagina said “Kyiv has found Moscow’s technological vulnerability and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries speed up the impact of Western sanctions” 14/ 

So, this Ukrainian strategy is working.

But what about other targets? The criticism I listed above states that Ukraine is better off hitting electricity grid, command centers, or munition warehouses 15/ 

Target Option 1. Electricity transmission or generating facilities.

The problem is that it is very difficult to create serious damage with the resources Ukraine has.

The case in point is the three winter Russian campaign to black out Ukraine 16/Image

In the beginning, it looked easy for Russia. Let’s hit some power plants and transformators in Ukraine said Russia.

But several thousand ballistic and cruise missiles later, Ukraine electricity grid stands. 17/ 

But why? Because the Soviet Union has built in a lot of spare capacity, redundancy and robustness. Yes, Ukraine needs air defense and have built protective infrastructure around the critical infrastructure, but Russia can do that too 18/ 

In addition, as we all have learned, drones can do limited damage to power plants and grids, we need missiles. But Ukraine doesn’t have them!

So what’s then Ukraine to do? It found a vulnerability where a small drone can do major damage – oil refineries. 19/ 

Interestingly, Russia can’t reciprocate because Ukraine doesn’t have oil refineries (any more). 20/ 
A similar argument applies to weapon depots. They are well protected and a drone is unlikely to do much damage. Ukraine has learned to store its monitor in such a way that Russians cannot easily destroy it, even with missiles. Russians are not stupid and they are doing the same /Image
You also need up to date intelligence about which depot to hit and where exactly as weapons are moved around. That’s not the case with oil refineries. 21/ 
Then, there is logistics. Ukraine can hit logistical infrastructure, terminals, railroad etc. but it’s hard. Again, Russia has tried to do it in Ukraine with very limited success. 22/ 
All these ideas about which targets to hit have been already tried in this war. What’s new in the Ukrainian strategy is that they have found a vulnerability : oil refineries. They are immobile, you can’t hide them, they are easily flammable, and there are large areas you can hit/ 

They are also very difficult and costly to rebuild.

The next step is for the Russia to figure out how to protect them and for Ukraine to learn how to bypass that protection. We will see what happens. X 

Sumy:

Tatarigami and his Frontintelligence team have a new assessment on the potential Russian assault on Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. From the Thread Reader App:

May 2nd updates on frontline developments from the Frontelligence Insight, including the information about a potential Russian offensive in the Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts

Before proceeding, please like and share to aid with visibility, as sometimes we get less visibility

🧵ThreadImage

2/ After successes in the Ocheretyne area, Russian forces now have slightly more than 10 kilometers of ground between them and the T0504 highway, which connects Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk. However, another potential threat is emerging from the northward-leading road.Image
3/ The Russian expansion into Arkhangel’s’ke widens their range of possibilities and complicates Ukrainian efforts to establish a cohesive defensive system across such a broad area, particularly given the understaffing of many brigades. 
4/ Frontelligence Insight analyzed imagery from April 22nd and May 1st to identify new scorch marks left by artillery or other projectiles. The results indicate Russian efforts concentrated in the western and northern directions, suggesting they may attempt to exploit this road.Image
5/ As mentioned in our previous update, Russians launched multiple assaults in the Bilohorivka-Siversk area. The 6th separate MRB tried to assault Spirne, south of Bilohorivka, with 1 tank and 3 MTLBs carrying infantry. Only 1 MTLB survived and retreated. Photo: @4emberlenImage

6/ The Kharkiv-Sumy Area Offensive (?)

There is speculation about Russia’s intentions to invade Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, requiring clarification of key details.

We previously identified Russian forces equivalent to two corps stationed along the border of Sumy and Kharkiv. 

7/ Firstly, we have not observed the formation of a concentrated force capable of conducting a deep strike. Instead, we see scattered units that could potentially assemble into a striking force in the future, although this is not evident at present. 
8/ Based on available to us information, these units are mainly infantry-based and have insufficient tanks and armored vehicles for deep maneuvers. Therefore, any operations against Ukrainian forces in Sumy and Kharkiv will differ from the large-scale invasion seen in 2022 

9/ Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, suggests that Russia’s northern grouping, located across the border from Kharkiv, currently consists of 35,000 troops.

10/ This aligns with our earlier estimates of the force approximately equivalent to 2 Russian corps in the area. Skibitsky anticipates that Russia’s main offensive will commence “at the end of May or beginning of June.”Image
11/ While their increased presence poses some threat, the current force levels are insufficient for a significant deep maneuver into Ukrainian territory. Our team will continue to monitor the area to identify changes 

12/ Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed our content, please consider liking and sharing it with others.

Additionally, if you’d like to support us further, you can make a donation through our Buy Me a Coffee page.

Urozhaine:

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

⚡️Russians use kamikaze drones over nuclear reactors of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, – Ukrainian Defense Intelligence.

The Ministry showed a video from a Russian drone, obtained with the help of electronic surveillance equipment, which shows the UT4D. TT marking (indicating that the drone was supplied through the Russian Defense Ministry).

The drones are flying over the power units of the ZNPP towards the constantly shelled Nikopol and Marhanets communities. The Main Directorate of Intelligence added that the occupiers have equipped launch sites for their drones right next to the 6th reactor. In addition, since the summer of 2023, the Russians have been using the territory of the captured nuclear power plant for training FPV drone pilots.

Russian occupied Crimea:

Smolensk Oblast, Russia:

Moscow:

Julia Davis at CEPA:

Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson released an interview with a Russian fascist ideologue, Alexander Dugin, on April 30, which was pre-recorded during his pilgrimage to Moscow to interview the Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The program did not disappoint. For Russia’s propagandists, it provided a successful entry into American living rooms. For Dugin’s many detractors, it was another confirmation of the madness that lies close to the heart of the Russian regime.

Sometimes described as “Putin’s Rasputin,” only partly because of his heavy beard, Dugin wholeheartedly supports Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and describes Ukrainians as a race of degenerates who crept up from sewers and deserve to be eliminated through genocide. Ukrainians should be “killed, killed, killed,” the self-described philosopher has suggested.

The interview followed the by-now established Carlson pattern, with an earnest-faced broadcaster, his face creased with concentration, respectfully giving his subject the opportunity to make his points without interruption.

Most journalists would have used this opportunity to question Dugin about his ties to and influence on Putin, as well as his justification of mass murder and any possible connection to the fate of his daughter, killed in a 2022 car bomb explosion that may also have been targeting him.

To the contrary, Carlson chose to stay away from Russian politics and instead allowed Dugin to rail against “the Anglo-Saxon world.” Without elaborating on Dugin’s genocidal views, Carlson simply noted: “His ideas are considered so dangerous, the Ukrainian government murdered his daughter, and Amazon won’t sell his books.” (Some of Dugin’s books and interviews are, in fact, available on Amazon.)

Russian propagandists have long dreamt of injecting their ideas and twisted rendition of history into the American mainstream, often remarking that Americans are stupid and uneducated enough to believe just about anything.

Head of RT Margarita Simonyan has repeatedly stressed that Moscow should recruit and utilize Western influencers to reach foreign audiences. Even after being ousted by Fox News, Carlson is delivering in spades, which encouraged Dugin into post-interview interviews on state media to celebrate his successful penetration of the Western mind.

On his Telegram channel, Dugin boasted about 6 million views for his sit down with Carlson and even urged Russian authorities to unblock X (formerly Twitter) since it is now controlled by the “libertarian Elon Musk.” He expressed excitement about piercing the veil of the Western mainstream media, describing Carlson as “Journalist No. 1 in the world.”

Dugin told Carlson that the West loathes Putin because of his “values,” and not because of his military aggression. “Given someone with nuclear weapons is standing strong defending traditional values that you’re going to abolish, I think they have some basis for this Russophobia and the hatred for Putin.” Nodding along, Tucker bemoaned the “very serious” hatred the West has for Putin.

Interviewed by Roman Golovanov on the Solovyov Live channel on April 30, in a segment entitled, “Tucker was told about the Army of the Antichrist,” the host began by stating, “We often frame our current confrontation with the West as a battle against the Army of the Antichrist. Were you able to get this through to him?”

The American had come to learn and listen, instead of arriving with preconceived notions about right and wrong, Dugin said. He lamented the need to edit down what had been a long interview, so losing most of his philosophical musings.

The 61-year-old Russian claimed that Carlson had compared his interview with his earlier sit-down with Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán and praised both Dugin and Orbán as representatives of a culture and a civilization that is “much deeper” than that of the West. The interviewer’s reports from Moscow during his February trip included ruminations that Russian supermarkets were well-stocked and that Stalin’s metro system was free of graffiti.

According to Dugin, Carlson complained about disappearing freedoms in the United States — although how much sympathy he got from a cheerleader for the totalitarian system is unclear. He also recounted Carlson’s claim that people like Putin and Dugin understand Westerners better than they (Westerners) understand themselves.

It was disappointing that Americans have yet to concur with Putin’s view that they are part of a Satanist civilization and belong to a culture of the Antichrist. Nonetheless, he had noticed progress, with conservative Americans now “discovering” conservative Russia and thereby rethinking events in their own country.

After Carlson’s flop of an interview with Putin, which led to widespread mockery in the US and the broader democratic West, and during which the Russian despot treated Carlson with open disrespect, the regime’s propagandists had complained of a failure in approach.

Simonyan vocally argued that Carlson had asked anything about “traditional values” — which may be the reason Dugin stepped in to fill that gap.

Golovanov rejoiced that thanks to Tucker, as he called him, Americans are discovering another side of Russia, as opposed to knowing only figures such as the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who was being killed at the Kremlin’s hands at about the same time as Carlson’s Putin interview.

Dugin told Golovanov he has a lot in common with the American broadcaster and claimed that both are victims of Western “cancel culture.” The host proceeded to quote another fellow propagandist, Sergey Mardan, who described Dugin as “Putin’s philosopher” and claimed that the volume of his works would put any American professor to shame.

As for the big picture, Dugin wanted everyone to grasp, it’s all about Putin — as a visual embodiment of Russia, its tsar and ruler, who is preoccupied with the fate of the world and all humanity.

The state propaganda machine’s enthusiasm for Carlson is undiminished. To mouthpieces like Golovanov, he represents the “white Christians” who are moving to Russia with their entire families in such numbers that the price of land in Russia would soon skyrocket, as Americans are joined by Canadians, French people, Italians, and Germans.

This is a vision Dugin does not share. He cautioned Golovanov against welcoming Westerners into Russia, stating that it would be better for them to stay in their own countries and “damage the Antichrist from within.” He reasoned that by moving from America to Russia, these families would simply augment the nearly universal pro-Putin vote and, therefore, make no difference.

According to Dugin, only by remaining in the United States could these people vote for someone like Donald Trump or Tucker Carlson, which would destroy the West from within and benefit Russia much more.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron.

There are no new Patron tweets, so here’s some adjacent material from Ukraine’s Emergency Services in Odesa.

The machine translation:

In Odesa, they said goodbye to the dog Ketty, who was killed by a Russian cluster missile 3 days ago

Canine members* of the security forces, together with the owners and simply caring Odessa residents, came to support Ketty and paid tribute and honored the memory of all the animals who became victims of the war

For some reason the machine translation rendered this as “cynological calculations.” I was going to use Anton Gerashchenko’s tweet of the video with his English caption, but it quote tweeted his tweet with Ketty and her human after the attack. I have avoided posting that here as you don’t need to see it. It is enough that I saw it for you. Here is what Gerashchenko wrote about Ketty’s funeral:

Odesa said goodbye to Ketty the dog, killed by a Russian cluster missile three days ago. Many dogs were present at the farewell ceremony for Ketty, including dogs who work in Ukrainian Emergency Services. This farewell was to honor the memory of all animals who became victims of this horrible unjust war.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

30Comments

  1. 1.

    db11

    Thanks Adam, and happy to hear that Rosie continues down the road to recovery (fingers crossed!).

  2. 2.

    hrprogressive

    So, much like 2022 Biden WH went into “nothing to see here” mode with respect to COVID because it was an election year, sounds like they are gonna do the same with Ukraine for 2024?

    Maybe I am overblowing the tweet in question, but after they gaslit the public on the still-rampaging, if somewhat less deadly, pandemic 2 years ago, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do it here, too.

    At least your dog seems to be doing better. Seems to be the only good news around right now.

  3. 3.

    Gin & Tonic

    Exhibit N in “machine translation needs more training.”

    The word in the Nova Poshta tweet that comes out as “racist” is actually the Ukrainian neologism “рашист” or “rashist” which is a melding of “russian” and “fascist,” pronounced similarly to the Ukrainian pronunciation of “fascist.”

    The word “кінологічні” in the last tweet that came out as “cynological” is, as Adam got it, the Ukrainian word for “canine.” I don’t know if “cynological” is even a word.

  4. 4.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I think the Biden team has to think about how to sustain the public’s support for Ukraine post-election, even if he is reelected, if it is deemphasized as a campaign issue.

  5. 5.

    Gin & Tonic

    @hrprogressive: I’m afraid you’re right. I’m also afraid that even if Biden wins and D’s take the House, there won’t be another aid package of this size. Not in 2025, not ever.

  7. 7.

    Harrison Wesley

    I’m sure that once upon a time Dugin was a serious philosopher.  Maybe in the 13th century or so.

  8. 8.

    Jay

    @hrprogressive:

    @Gin & Tonic:

    We will see what happens. President Macron said yesterday that if there is a ruZZian breakthrough, and Ukraine asks for help, he will send French troops to combat roles in Ukraine as part of the global fight against terrorism.

  11. 11.

    Nukular Biskits

    Only time I’ll complain about your post, Adam: Just. Could. Not. read the bit about Tucker Carlson.  I’m not a man of violence but I’d really like to kick his ass.

    Otherwise, as always, thanks for the hard work.

  12. 12.

    Jay

    (((Tendar)))
    @Tendar
    9h
    You know, one of the many terms which got coined during Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is “Vuhledar”. The verb is “to vuhledar” and it means throwing at least battalion-sized numbers of armored vehicles into the fire in a very short amount of time. Russians do this all the time and this one ended with 42 Russian vehicles for the scrapyard.

    With compliments from the Ukrainian 58th and 762nd Brigade.

    https://nitter.poast.org/Tendar/status/1786066288877490255#m

  13. 13.

    Ksmiami

    I feel like Russia deserves incoming hellfire. That country should be obliterated.

  16. 16.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Adam L Silverman: I appreciate that, but it’s not really necessary. I post those kinds of things not to fault anyone, but rather out of linguistic interest. Some regular readers have expressed an interest in that side of things.

  17. 17.

    Another Scott

    Meanwhile, …

    Shaiel Ben-Ephraim
    @academic_la
    9h

    Tensions between the IDF and Netanyahu have become so severe that there are even some whispers of a possible military coup. Veteran and respected military correspondent Ron Ben-Yishai published a bombshell story in Ynet today.

    Tensions surround Netanyahu’s indecision on what the IDF believes are the five most important issues surrounding the war today:

    * The hostage deal
    * The day after plan
    * The Rafah operation
    * The war in the north
    * The defense budget

    The Hostage Deal: The IDF feels that ending the war now and focusing on getting the hostages back is a good idea strategically. However, they are also willing to wage this war to the end. But right now, they feel the war is being fought with one hand tied behind their backs, and every day, more hostages could die. They believe the situation would be much better if Netanyahu decided on one path.

    The Day After Plan: The IDF feels that by not creating an alternate governance mechanism, all of the fighting and sacrifices it has made so far have been wasted. As soon as they leave, Hamas goes back in. This is frustrating to them since many soldiers died to take these areas that are just given up because there is no governing alternative to Hamas. The IDF is willing to create a military government or support a newly installed PA government or something of the sort. They think it is time for Netanyahu to decide.

    The operation in Rafah: The IDF has an operation ready to go in Rafah and believes it is essential to do so. They also believe the operation would pressure Hamas into a hostage deal. However, they are amazed that Netanyahu has not yet given the order to clear Rafah since that will take weeks. They want Netanyahu to decide already because without going in, the hostage negotiations are dragging on, and Hamas still controls the tunnels leading to Egypt.

    The war in the north: The IDF feels it is not being given the tools to bring quiet back to the north. They are concerned the new normal will be a war of attrition that doesn’t allow the residents home. They believe Israel needs to either reach a ceasefire with Hamas and try to calm things diplomatically or let them go into Lebanon. They just want Netanyahu to decide.

    The Defense budget: The IDF needs to know which front the government will focus on to know what to spend money on. Long-range capabilities against Iran? A military government in Gaza? A war in Lebanon? They have no idea what to plan for, what weapons to buy, and how to organize the troops.

    The feeling that Netanyahu is inept and indecisive to the point of paralyzing the war is rampant in the army. These five points are the reason. Ben-Yishai compares the feeling in the army to the “generals mutiny” that occurred before the 1967 War when Levi Eshkol hesitated to attack Egypt. The IDF was considering taking steps against the Prime Minister.

    That was settled by a decision to go to war. Will Netanyahu make the necessary decisions? If not, some worry the military will take matters into their own hands. They feel the future of the country is at stake.

    May 2, 2024 · 4:30 PM UTC

    Hmmm…

    I would hope that Bibi has learned the lessons about the bad things that happen when the IDF can do whatever it wants on being told “Go!”, but I guess we’ll see if that’s true or not.

    (via Bobblespeak)

    Grr…,
    Scott.

  18. 18.

    Yutsano

    I’m sorry, but Dugin can’t be the Rasputin to Putin, because I highly doubt he’s using psychosexual techniques on Putin’s spouse.

    Or maybe he is.

  19. 19.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Another Scott: While the IDF is waiting for Bibi to make up his mind, perhaps the generals can lighten up on the war crimes & crimes against humanity, that have been cratering Israel’s international support? Right now, Bibi is the focus for international ire & anger. If he is removed in an IDF led coup, then the fire will shift to the IDF & the rest of the Israeli establishment.

  20. 20.

    Melancholy Jaques

    @Gin & Tonic:

    The opposition to Ukraine funding driven by Trump and is centered in the house. If he loses and Democrats take the house, Biden will get what he wants.

  21. 21.

    Yutsano

    @Another Scott: ​
    This part really got me:

    The Day After Plan: The IDF feels that by not creating an alternate governance mechanism, all of the fighting and sacrifices it has made so far have been wasted.

    There.Is.No.Day.After.Plan.
    Netanyahu wasn’t thinking about that. His extremists in his cabinet want the Gazans exterminated. The public wants peace and the hostages released. All Bibi wants is to stay out of jail, and if that means starving Gazans and murdering even more Palestinian families well that’s just a sacrifice he’s willing to make! I can’t believe a representative from the IDF said that.​
     
    EDIT: FYWP.

  22. 22.

    Bill Arnold

    Since this is technically an open thread, enjoyed this paper. The author is not a practitioner of propaganda/the dark arts, but readably outlines a class of manipulation techniques for a general academic audience. (Some refs are worth a look too.)
    The seductions of clarity (C. Thi Nguyen, 2021, pdf)

    The general point, however, is that giving into the seductions of clarity isn’t just some brute error, or the result of sheer laziness and epistemic negligence. Rather, it is driven, in significant degree, by systems and environments which function to exploit the cognitive vulnerabilities generated by the coping strategies of cognitively finite beings.
    …
    There are two general strategies for epistemic manipulation. There is epistemic intimidation: the strategy of trying to get an epistemic agent to accept something by making them afraid or uncomfortable to think otherwise. There is also epistemic seduction: the strategy of manipulating positive cognitive signals to get an epistemic agent to accept something. The manipulation of clarity is a form of epistemic seduction. It is the attempt to use our own cognitive processes against us, whispering pleasantly all the while.
    …
    “The sense of clarity functions as a thought-terminating heuristic.”

  25. 25.

    Lyrebird

    @hrprogressive: gaslit the public on the still-rampaging, if somewhat less deadly, pandemic 2 years ago

    Uh that’s one way to put it.  So is, “made damaging concessions to the lunatic (more than a) fringe that took control of the House and were threatening doctors and schools around the country.”

  26. 26.

    Reboot

    @YY_Sima Qian: Delurking–I looked up that Politico article. The quotations are from an unnamed ‘senior adviser’ and Jennifer Palmieri, who as a 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign staffer presumably isn’t one of Biden’s people.  From the actual article:  ‘ “The issues that are most important for the world are not necessarily urgent matters for voters,” said Jennifer Palmieri, who served as communication director on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.’ Her words got appended without attribution to a tweet that strongly implied this was coming from Biden staff, if not Biden himself. The article goes on:  ‘Publicly, Biden’s team insists that the debate isn’t an either-or; that the president can “navigate doing two things at once.” ‘ Interesting how that quotation was truncated, with the stem undercutting it with ‘Publicly’ and ‘insists.’

  27. 27.

    hrprogressive

    @Gin & Tonic: ​
    Until proven otherwise, I really do believe the majority of the western approach to Ukraine is “give them just enough aid and platitudes to eventually get the war to a stalemate where they can all say ‘we really tried, now you all have to stop fighting'” as opposed to giving Ukraine enough to win outright.
    Whether it’s still abject fear of Russian escalation or something else, they just don’t seem interested in winning this war as it stands now.
    @Jay: ​

    I’m really leery of Macron continuing to basically threaten a NATO v Russia direct shooting or worse conflict this way.
    I do appreciate his desire to see Ukraine win, he seems to be one of the only non-Baltic countries that wants to see this.

    @Lyrebird: ​
     

    Not sure what else to tell you; In 2022 the CDC changed their maps to reflect a complete “greenwashing” of the state of the pandemic, which was to downplay its severity, downplay the significance of continuing to take public health measures such as masking and so forth, and Walensky basically went on a “nothing to see here, dear citizens, it’s time to move on” way before it was really time to do so.

    I’m still mad about it, and I do not care if that bothers people.

  28. 28.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Reboot: Thanks for pointing it out! I have now read the Politico piece, too. You are right, it is pretty vacuous, w/ all of the quoted sources (named or anonymous) merely expressing concern that Biden might underemphasize Ukraine during the campaign.

  29. 29.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @hrprogressive: I don’t think Western policymakers are so cynical as to be pursuing a strategy of bleeding Russians to the last Ukrainian (some think tankers might), but I do suspect a bloody stalemate along the current Lines of Actual Control is w/in the range of acceptable outcomes in many Western capitals, including DC.

    Macron is overcompensating for the negative consequences of insufficient material aid to Ukraine by [rhetorically] escalating the specter of NATO troops in Ukraine & the possibility of direct engagement between NATO & Russian militaries. I think it is performative, & thus unserious. However, if it is serious, it’s utter madness. NATO could just come through w/ the needed material aid to Ukraine, rather than risking a shooting war between nuclear powers.

    Agreed w/ you on the CDC’s politically driven guidance in ’22.

  30. 30.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Good analysis from Jack Watling in Foreign Affairs:

    American Aid Alone Won’t Save Ukraine
    To Survive, Kyiv Must Build New Brigades—and Force Moscow to Negotiate

    By Jack Watling
    May 2, 2024

    After months of delay, Congress’s passage of a nearly $61 billion U.S. aid bill to Ukraine has provided a vital lifeline to Kyiv. But the aid package alone will not solve Ukraine’s larger problems in its war with Russia. Ukrainian forces are defending frontlines that span some 600 miles of the south and east of the country, and prolonged inaction in Washington has left them severely stretched. The influx of U.S. weapons and ammunition should significantly raise the cost to Russia of its impending summer offensive. The aid also offers Ukrainian forces enough materiel to support more systematic military planning for the summer and fall.

    Yet ending the war on terms favorable to Ukraine will require far more than a new pipeline of equipment. More than two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, its objective in the war remains unchanged: the Kremlin seeks to subjugate Kyiv. Inconstant support and political delays among Ukraine’s international partners have left that outcome all too plausible. If Ukraine is to prevent Russian victory in the longer term, it will need a comprehensive strategy. This means training, equipping, and mobilizing new forces. It means convincing the Kremlin that continuing the war will become increasingly risky to Russia over time. And it means establishing a position of sufficient strength to be able to set forth, on Ukraine’s own terms, the parameters of a lasting peace.

    None of these tasks will be straightforward, and none can happen overnight. Nor can Ukraine and its international partners afford to fritter away months formulating a way forward. The United States and its NATO allies will need to make explicit long-term commitments; compelling Russia to negotiate will be especially difficult. But the alternatives are far worse. In the absence of such an overall strategy, the duration of the conflict may be extended, but its trajectory will not.

    …

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